Category: USA

Wall Street executives, political bettors, and cryptocurrency traders are increasingly wagering on former President Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Yet, the stock market appears to suggest an alternate outcome. The U.S. stock market has surged recently, with the S&P 500 index climbing over 10% since August, an increase that could indicate stability in the current administration rather than a shift in power.

The S&P 500, while not a direct reflection of the broader economy, has historically served as a strong predictor of electoral outcomes. Over the past 96 years, it has accurately forecasted the incumbent party’s success or failure in all but four presidential races. As a general trend, a drop in the S&P 500 before an election hints at investor uncertainty, likely associated with the prospect of a new administration. Conversely, a rise signals stability, which the market often associates with the continuity of the current party in power. Based on the recent rise in the S&P 500, some analysts believe Vice President Kamala Harris, who replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, may secure victory.

“The market’s making a call for Harris to win,” says Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, which has studied the correlation between stock movements and election outcomes. “When there’s more certainty about the incumbent party winning the White House, we know for the most part the policies they’ve [installed]. There’s just a level of comfort that the market has with that certainty.”

With the presidential race appearing as a close contest, voters are searching for clarity on the likely winner. This uncertainty has fueled interest not only in public opinion polls but also in election-betting markets and other indicators. Notably, election-betting markets are currently leaning toward Trump, as are other unconventional predictors, like the “Redskins Rule” and the outcome of the World Series.

“People are just naturally going to feel anxiety,” explains Justin Grimmer, a professor of public policy at Stanford University. “All of these things, I think, are ways for people to try to relieve this anxiety they have about this election.”

However, the S&P 500’s reliability as a predictor remains controversial. Monica Guerra, head of U.S. policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, points out that the index is no “crystal ball.” She suggests that the year’s stock market gains may be attributed more to tech companies and the Federal Reserve’s measures against inflation than to election outcomes. Trump has also often credited himself for market gains, arguing that a potential return to office would continue to benefit investors.

Despite these doubts, the S&P 500’s history as a forecasting tool is difficult to ignore. The index, which represents the largest public companies in the U.S., has correctly anticipated the election outcome in 20 of the last 24 contests. For example, in 2016, the index dropped 2.3% before Election Day, reflecting the transition from Democratic to Republican leadership with Trump’s unexpected victory. “You were laughed at for even thinking about it,” Turnquist recalls of Trump’s 2016 win. “But the market was right.”

Nonetheless, the index has not always been accurate. Its performance in 2020 suggested Trump would defeat President Joe Biden. Despite this, many investors remain convinced that Trump is favored to win again in the upcoming election. Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller highlighted this sentiment on Bloomberg Television, noting that various factors—including the performance of bank stocks, crypto prices, and Trump’s social media venture—indicate optimism for a Trump victory. Trump Media, for instance, has seen its stock price surge by over 200% since it hit a low last month.

Additionally, a selection of stocks that stand to gain from a Trump administration has recently shown upward movement. Morgan Stanley released a report identifying a “Republican basket” of investments, which includes companies in energy, banking, and cryptocurrency. This Republican portfolio has outperformed a similar Democratic-focused portfolio by 10% over the year.

Guerra emphasizes that mixed signals within the market reflect a tight and polarized electorate. “Part of the reason why we have conflicting indicators right now is because of how divided the electorate is and how tight it is in these swing states,” she notes. “This is a true toss-up. You can see that dynamic play out both in the markets and the economy.”

In a statement, Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt underscored Trump’s poll dominance, adding that Republicans are making significant strides in voter registration and early voting compared to prior elections. “Voters know that Kamala Harris has destroyed our country, but President Trump will fix it — and that is why he is well-positioned for victory on November 5,” she asserted.

The Harris campaign did not provide comments in response.

Some experts, such as Reena Aggarwal, a finance professor at Georgetown University, remain skeptical of the S&P 500 as a comprehensive predictor. According to Aggarwal, the stock indexes today are less representative of the U.S. economy than they were in previous decades, mainly due to the outsized influence of tech companies. Additionally, the number of major private companies that are not publicly traded has grown, reducing the representativeness of public stock performance.

In past decades, the stock market better reflected the “broad economy,” as industrial and energy corporations with extensive workforces made up a more substantial part of the index. Now, tech giants dominate, leading to a disconnect between the stock market and the overall economy. “The market and the broader economy — there’s a disconnect,” Aggarwal points out.

For Stanford’s Grimmer, the historical link between economic indicators and presidential elections remains relevant but is ultimately limited. He warns against reading too much into patterns based on specific data points, noting that voters’ economic perspectives vary widely as Election Day approaches. Thus, the stock market may not be the best gauge of who will prevail.

“You can only use history so much,” Grimmer advises. “We’re just going to have to wait and find out. It’s a coin flip.”

As the United States heads toward the November 5 presidential election, a fiercely contested race unfolds between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris. Recent online claims suggest that all is not harmonious within Trump’s campaign as he vies for a second term.

Political commentator Brian Krassenstein recently shared on the platform X that a message allegedly from “Trump Campaign insiders” implies Trump himself doubts his victory. According to the post, Trump’s supposed “only true path to victory” involves creating the perception that he is winning, making any challenge to the results seem credible. However, Krassenstein quickly dismissed the authenticity of the message, noting that the chat could be “a random text message sent by anyone on the planet to anyone on the planet,” similar to questionable claims from Harris’s campaign that speculate President Biden fears Harris may struggle to secure a win.

In his commentary, Krassenstein argued that Trump is relying heavily on claims of election rigging, a tactic he previously used. He emphasized the strong integrity of America’s election process, calling it “one of the safest on the planet.” He commented, “Seems as if things are pretty bad in the Trump campaign right now. I can’t believe that Trump appears to once again be relying on the notion that the election is rigged to try and sneak his way back into the most important office on the planet.”

Adding to these campaign challenges are reports of tension between Trump and his daughter Ivanka Trump. Allegedly, Trump expressed frustration over Ivanka’s limited involvement in his current campaign, purportedly even using an offensive term to describe her due to her reduced public support. In contrast to her significant role during Trump’s first presidential term, Ivanka and her stepmother, Melania Trump, have mostly kept a low profile this season, making only sporadic public appearances.

Krassenstein’s post cited insiders who claimed, “He is also apparently using the B-word to describe his own daughter Ivanka Trump because she hasn’t spent enough time campaigning for him this election cycle.” This distance from the political scene marks a significant shift for Ivanka, who held a high-profile advisory role during Trump’s initial presidency but has since opted for a quieter, private life. Hindustan Times quoted a source stating, “She is very happy, living her best life. She has completely moved on from politics, and even though her dad is the leading Republican candidate this time, she really doesn’t care.”

According to OK! Magazine, an insider revealed that Ivanka had informed her father from the start of his campaign that she wanted no involvement. Reflecting on her past dedication, the insider noted, “During the first election, she wanted to support him and be a good daughter, dedicating four years to his administration, but she’s had enough. She doesn’t want to do it anymore.”

On November 5, American voters will head to the polls to choose their next president. Originally, this election was expected to be a rematch of the 2020 race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. However, the race took an unexpected turn in July when Biden ended his campaign and endorsed his Vice President, Kamala Harris. This shift has raised a major question: will the U.S. see its first woman president, or will Donald Trump return for a second term?

As election day approaches, we’ll track the latest polls and analyze how each candidate’s campaign is impacting the race.

National Polls: Who is Ahead?

Since Harris entered the race in late July, she has maintained a narrow lead over Trump in national polling averages, though the gap has fluctuated over the past months. Initially, Harris enjoyed a significant boost, reaching a nearly four-point lead by the end of August. Her numbers stabilized throughout September, even following the only debate between her and Trump on September 10, a widely viewed event that attracted almost 70 million viewers. However, recent polling indicates a tightening race as the gap between them has narrowed.

National polls, though indicative of a candidate’s popularity, don’t guarantee an election outcome. The U.S. presidential election operates through an electoral college system. Each state is allocated a certain number of electoral votes proportional to its population, totaling 538 votes. A candidate must secure at least 270 to win the presidency. Consequently, the true battleground lies not in national support but in key swing states where both candidates have a viable chance of winning.

Battleground States: Who Leads Where?

In the crucial swing states, the contest remains extremely close. Polling averages show no clear frontrunner in these decisive states, which include Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Since Harris entered the race, the data has shown interesting trends in these states, though the limited number of state-level polls and their inherent margin of error complicate any definitive conclusions. In Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, for instance, both candidates have traded the lead since early August, with Trump pulling slightly ahead in recent weeks. In Nevada, Harris has held a slight edge.

In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris consistently led by two to three points since early August. However, polling in these states has also tightened significantly. Notably, Trump has taken a small lead in Pennsylvania, a state critical for both candidates due to its relatively high number of electoral votes among the swing states. A win in Pennsylvania could greatly improve either candidate’s path to the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.

These three states were Democratic strongholds until Trump flipped them red in 2016, helping him secure the presidency. In 2020, Biden reclaimed them for the Democrats. Should Harris manage to hold these states, her path to the White House would be significantly easier. Her campaign’s gains underscore the changes since Biden left the race. On the day he withdrew, he trailed Trump by almost five points across the swing states and by 4.5 points in Pennsylvania alone. This trend shift highlights the importance of these battleground states and Harris’s appeal in those areas Biden struggled to secure.

How Polling Averages Are Created

The polling data in the graphics presented above are averages calculated by the polling analysis site 538, part of ABC News. To determine these averages, 538 gathers results from individual polls conducted by various polling firms across the nation and in swing states. Only polls from companies meeting specific quality standards—such as transparency about sample size, polling dates, and data collection methods—are included in these averages.

These standards ensure reliability to a certain extent, but all polls come with inherent limitations, which 538 addresses by applying a consistent methodology to create an average that ideally reflects overall trends.

Can the Polls Be Trusted?

Polls currently show Harris and Trump nearly tied across most swing states, suggesting an extremely close race. Given the small margins between them, it’s challenging to predict a winner based solely on current data.

Historically, polls have underestimated Trump’s support, as seen in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Polling companies have since adjusted their methods to better capture voter sentiment. They are now trying various approaches to make poll results more representative of the voting population’s composition. However, these adjustments are complex, requiring educated assumptions about voter turnout and other unpredictable factors that can only be tested once voters actually cast their ballots on November 5.

Bill Gates, one of the world’s richest individuals, has privately revealed that he recently contributed about $50 million to a nonprofit organization backing Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential bid, according to a report by The New York Times. Despite the significant donation, Gates has not made any public endorsement of Harris, marking a departure from his usual approach of staying away from direct political contributions.

Gates, known for co-founding Microsoft, has long maintained a neutral stance in the political sphere. Throughout his career, he has refrained from making contributions that could associate him with specific candidates or political campaigns. Though he does not share a close personal relationship with Harris, Gates has previously expressed approval of the Biden-Harris administration’s climate change policies. According to sources speaking to The New York Times, Gates and his foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, are increasingly worried about potential threats to family planning and global health initiatives should Donald Trump win the presidency again.

The report suggests that Gates is particularly concerned about the future of these programs, many of which have been critical to global health, under a potential second Trump administration. The former president has made it clear that he intends to reverse many of the current administration’s policies, raising alarm among those who support programs that benefit international health and family planning. Gates’s donation may reflect his growing recognition of the role political leadership plays in shaping the future of these global initiatives.

When asked to respond to the New York Times report, Gates did not directly confirm or deny the substantial donation to the Harris-aligned nonprofit. While he did not offer an explicit endorsement of Harris’s candidacy, Gates acknowledged the high stakes of the 2024 presidential election. He pointed out that he has always taken a bipartisan approach to his work, supporting initiatives that cross party lines. However, he emphasized that the upcoming election presents a unique situation, hinting that it may be one of the reasons for his decision to get involved in political giving at this level. “This election is different,” Gates reportedly said, underscoring the potential risks he sees with a Trump comeback.

Gates’s reluctance to engage directly in politics has long been noted, particularly by his Democratic allies. Some within his circle have tried to encourage him to become more involved in political donations over the years, but he has resisted. His reluctance has been shaped by his belief in maintaining a neutral position, especially given his role as a leading philanthropist and businessman.

However, Gates is said to be experiencing mounting pressure from within his own family, specifically from his children Rory and Phoebe Gates. Both of Gates’s children have reportedly become Democratic donors themselves, with Rory, in particular, playing an active role in Democratic fundraising efforts. They have been pushing their father to take a more visible stand in political matters, especially as the 2024 election approaches. This family dynamic may have contributed to his decision to donate to the Harris-supporting nonprofit.

Despite Gates’s recent donation, many of the wealthiest backers of Harris remain cautious about associating themselves too closely with her campaign. Some donors fear potential repercussions from Donald Trump, who has a history of publicly targeting those who oppose him. In his previous run for office, Trump was known for openly criticizing his rivals and threatening retaliation against high-profile figures who supported his political opponents. This lingering fear of retaliation has led some wealthy supporters to contribute anonymously or through less direct channels, avoiding public identification as Harris’s supporters.

The political landscape for the 2024 election appears to be more charged than usual, with high-profile figures like Gates stepping into the arena, despite personal reluctance or historical disengagement. Gates’s involvement in the Harris campaign—albeit in the form of a large financial contribution rather than a public endorsement—signals a shift in the strategies of traditionally neutral or apolitical philanthropists.

Many observers are interpreting Gates’s donation as a response to the broader implications of the 2024 election, particularly for global health and climate change initiatives. His foundation has long been at the forefront of funding programs that address health disparities, poverty, and family planning, both in the U.S. and globally. A Trump return to office could potentially disrupt or defund these programs, leading to what Gates and others view as dire consequences for international health systems.

While Gates has not definitively aligned himself with Harris, his donation could be seen as a vote of confidence in the current administration’s approach to tackling issues like climate change and global health. Gates has been vocal about the need for coordinated action on climate policy, praising the Biden-Harris administration for its efforts in this area. He has also spoken at length about the importance of addressing global health inequities, issues that are closely tied to the work his foundation has been engaged in for decades.

However, for Gates, the decision to donate to a campaign-related nonprofit may also be a reflection of his belief in the critical importance of family planning and health initiatives. These are areas where Gates has invested considerable time and resources, and a change in administration could pose a significant threat to the progress made in these fields. For someone like Gates, who has worked tirelessly on these issues through his foundation, the potential impact of the election may have been too important to ignore.

The report from The New York Times also highlights the increasing involvement of high-profile figures like Gates in shaping the outcome of the 2024 election, even if they are not traditionally associated with political donations. Gates’s decision to make such a significant contribution, despite his longstanding practice of staying out of politics, underscores the unprecedented nature of the upcoming election and the concerns many have about the direction the country might take.

For now, Gates continues to avoid a full public endorsement of any candidate, but his $50 million donation has certainly caught the attention of political observers. Whether Gates will continue to increase his political involvement as the 2024 election nears remains to be seen. However, his shift in strategy—driven by concerns over global health, family planning, and climate change—suggests that the stakes of this election are motivating even the most apolitical figures to take action.

With Election Day fast approaching, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump in four key battleground states, while Trump holds narrow leads in two others. The polling, released Monday by the Washington Post-Schar School, surveyed voters in seven swing states that are critical in determining the outcome of the election.

According to the poll, Harris is leading Trump among likely voters in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in Arizona and North Carolina. In Nevada, the two candidates are tied, each securing 48 percent of voter support.

In Georgia, Harris has a slight advantage with 51 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 47 percent. The Peach State, which narrowly favored President Joe Biden in the 2020 election, has become a significant focus of Harris’s campaign. Her late-entry campaign efforts have centered heavily on Georgia, as she seeks to build on the Democratic momentum from the previous election.

Harris also holds a lead in Wisconsin, where she has 50 percent of voter support, compared to Trump’s 47 percent. Michigan is another close state, with Harris leading by just two percentage points over Trump. Both states are crucial for the Democrats, and Harris has benefited from the active campaigning of Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, both of whom are Democrats.

Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is seen as one of the closest contests in the election. Harris currently has a 49 percent to 47 percent lead over Trump in the state. Pennsylvania is a crucial swing state that could play a decisive role in determining the overall winner of the election.

Meanwhile, Trump is ahead in Arizona, a state that was narrowly won by Biden in 2020. Arizona has become a key battleground once again, and Trump’s focus on immigration issues has resonated with voters there. According to the poll, Trump leads Harris 49 percent to 46 percent in the state. His efforts to regain control of Arizona have centered on his strong stance on immigration, which remains a central issue for voters in the region.

Trump is also leading in North Carolina, another important state in the upcoming election. The poll found Trump has 50 percent of voter support in the state, compared to Harris’s 47 percent. Both candidates plan to make campaign visits to North Carolina in the coming days, especially in light of the recent devastation caused by Hurricane Helene, which struck the western part of the state.

As the election nears, both candidates are fighting for every vote in these critical states, knowing that the outcome in these regions could determine who wins the presidency. Harris’s campaign has focused on continuing the work of the Biden administration, particularly in addressing economic and social issues, while Trump has positioned himself as a candidate who can restore the policies and priorities from his first term in office, particularly with regards to immigration, the economy, and foreign policy.

The polling data from The Washington Post-Schar School adds to the broader picture of a highly competitive election. According to a separate aggregation of polls from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, Harris currently has a 1.5 percentage point lead over Trump. This suggests that while Harris may have an edge in several swing states, the race remains tight, and the final outcome is far from certain.

The Washington Post survey was conducted from September 29 to October 15, gathering responses from 5,016 voters across the seven battleground states. The margin of error for the survey is 1.7 percentage points, indicating that while Harris leads in several states, the results are close enough that the race could still shift in favor of either candidate as Election Day approaches.

As the final two weeks of campaigning unfold, both candidates are expected to ramp up their efforts in these swing states, making frequent visits and targeting key voter demographics in an attempt to sway undecided voters. The remaining time will be crucial as Harris and Trump aim to solidify their support and secure the electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

Both campaigns are expected to focus on a few major issues that are particularly relevant to voters in these states. For Harris, the emphasis has been on economic recovery, healthcare access, and social justice reforms, while Trump has focused heavily on immigration, law and order, and rebuilding the economy in the wake of the pandemic.

The closeness of the race in several states reflects the deep political divisions that have marked this election cycle. Both Harris and Trump have their respective bases of support, but the key to winning may lie in convincing the relatively small number of undecided voters who are still weighing their options.

In Georgia, where Harris leads by 4 percentage points, the Democratic Party is hoping to replicate the success it had in 2020, when Biden narrowly won the state. Harris has made several trips to Georgia in the closing weeks of her campaign, highlighting the importance of voting rights and economic recovery. Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, is counting on a strong turnout from his supporters in rural areas of the state, where his message of economic revival and conservative values resonates deeply.

In Wisconsin and Michigan, Harris’s slim leads are bolstered by the active support of Democratic governors who are popular in their respective states. Both Tony Evers of Wisconsin and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan have campaigned alongside Harris, emphasizing her commitment to expanding healthcare access, protecting workers’ rights, and addressing climate change.

Trump, however, remains a formidable opponent in these states, particularly in areas that have experienced economic hardship in recent years. His message of bringing back manufacturing jobs and revitalizing the economy has found a receptive audience among many voters in the industrial Midwest, where economic concerns often take precedence over social issues.

The race in Pennsylvania is perhaps the most closely watched, given its significant electoral vote count and its history as a swing state that can determine the outcome of national elections. Harris’s narrow lead in the state reflects the importance of voter turnout in urban areas like Philadelphia, as well as the support she has garnered from labor unions and progressive groups. Trump, meanwhile, has focused on rural and suburban voters, where his message of economic revival and his tough stance on crime and immigration have resonated strongly.

As Election Day approaches, both campaigns are preparing for a final push to win over undecided voters in these battleground states. With just two weeks left, the outcome of the election remains highly uncertain, and it is clear that every vote will count in determining the next president of the United States.

In her first appearance on Fox News since taking office, Vice President Kamala Harris used the opportunity to attack her Republican rival, Donald Trump, while defending her record and the Biden administration’s policies. The interview, held Wednesday, highlighted Harris’s efforts to appeal to disaffected Republican and independent voters as the 2024 presidential race heats up.

When questioned on issues such as illegal border crossings and violent crimes involving undocumented immigrants during President Joe Biden’s tenure, Harris directed her criticism at Trump. She repeatedly mentioned the former president’s opposition to a bipartisan border security bill earlier in the year. “We have a broken immigration system,” she said, laying the blame on Trump for his refusal to back reforms.

Harris also didn’t shy away from addressing concerns about Biden’s age and mental sharpness, an issue raised frequently by Republicans. Turning the tables, she labeled Trump as “unstable” and questioned his fitness for office, emphasizing, “We should all be concerned.”

The vice president further accused Fox News of downplaying Trump’s divisive rhetoric, noting that the former president had often referred to political opponents as “the enemy within.” She said, “Here’s the bottom line: He has repeated it many times, and you and I both know that. And you and I both know that he has talked about turning the American military on the American people. He has talked about going after people who are engaged in peaceful protest. He has talked about locking people up because they disagree with him.”

Harris made it clear that, in a democracy, the president should be able to handle criticism without threatening retribution. “This is a democracy,” she stated, “And in a democracy, the president of the United States – in the United States of America – should be willing to be able to handle criticism without saying he would lock people up for doing it.”

The interview was part of Harris’s broader effort to appeal to Republican voters who are uncomfortable with Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election. In recent weeks, Harris has been campaigning alongside prominent Republican figures like former Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney and others from Trump’s administration who have distanced themselves from the former president.

Earlier on Wednesday, Harris spoke at an event in Washington Crossing, Pennsylvania, near the historic site where George Washington crossed the Delaware River during the American Revolution. The event gathered over 100 Republicans supporting her campaign, including figures such as former Illinois Representative Adam Kinzinger and former Georgia Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan.

During the Fox News interview, Harris also sought to differentiate herself from President Biden, a departure from her earlier statements. She stressed that her presidency, if elected, would not be a continuation of Biden’s administration. “My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency,” Harris told Fox News anchor Bret Baier. “I represent a new generation of leadership,” she added. “I, for example, am someone who has not spent the majority of my career in Washington, DC. I invite ideas, whether it be from the Republicans who are supporting me who were just onstage with me minutes ago, and the business sector and others who can contribute to the decisions I make.”

In another key segment of the interview, Harris was pressed about a Trump campaign ad that highlighted her previous stance on gender-affirming care for prisoners, a position she supported during her time as a California senator and presidential candidate in 2019. When asked whether she still supports using taxpayer funds for such care, including for undocumented immigrants, Harris was careful to emphasize her commitment to following the law.

“I will follow the law, and it’s a law that Donald Trump actually followed. You’re probably familiar with, now it’s a public report that under Donald Trump’s administration, these surgeries were available on a medical necessity basis, to people in the federal prison system,” she explained. Harris pointed out that the Trump administration had allowed such services, calling the ad’s criticism hypocritical: “I think, frankly, that ad from the Trump campaign is a little bit of like throwing, you know, stones when you’re living in a glass house.”

Pressed again by Baier on whether she would personally advocate for taxpayer funding of gender-affirming surgeries, Harris remained firm, reiterating her position: “I would follow the law, just as I think Donald Trump would say he did.”

Throughout the interview, Harris repeatedly referred to the bipartisan border security bill that was blocked by Republicans earlier this year. She argued that the failure to pass this legislation has exacerbated the challenges at the US-Mexico border, where facilities are overwhelmed by the number of migrants entering the country.

Baier challenged Harris on the Biden administration’s decision to roll back Trump-era immigration policies, leading to several tense exchanges between the two. At one point, Baier pressed Harris to estimate how many undocumented immigrants had been released into the U.S. during Biden’s presidency. “Just a number. Do you think it’s 1 million, 3 million?” he asked. Harris refused to provide a figure, instead reiterating her point about the broken immigration system.

“Bret, let’s just get to the point, OK? The point is that we have a broken immigration system that needs to be repaired,” she responded. Harris acknowledged the tragic consequences of a system in disrepair, including the case of Laken Riley, a 22-year-old Georgia nursing student who was killed by an undocumented immigrant released by U.S. authorities. “First of all, those are tragic cases. There’s no question about that. There is no question about that, and I can’t imagine the pain that the families of those victims have experienced for a loss that should not have occurred,” she said.

But Harris was quick to return to her criticism of Republican opposition to border security reforms, saying, “It is also true that if a border security bill had actually been passed nine months ago. It would be nine months that we would have had more border agents at the border, more support for the folks who are working around the clock trying to hold it all together.”

Harris maintained that both parties agree on the need to fix the system: “I have no pride in saying that this is a perfect immigration system,” she admitted. “I’ve been clear — I think we all are — that it needs to be fixed.”

In response to questions about her stance on benefits for undocumented immigrants, Harris remained evasive, reiterating only that she would “follow the law.” She also confirmed that she does not support decriminalizing illegal border crossings. “I do not believe in decriminalizing border crossings, and I’ve not done that as vice president,” she said. “I will not do that as president.”

Donald Trump is outlining an extreme vision for a new White House term, one that could drastically alter America and send shockwaves around the globe. Vice President Kamala Harris has only three weeks to counter this, as she works to regain momentum in what has become a highly competitive race leading up to Election Day.

Trump, the Republican nominee, has intensified the most inflammatory anti-immigrant rhetoric in recent U.S. political history. He has made false claims, such as asserting that Haitian migrants living legally in the U.S. were eating pets in Ohio, and warned that outsiders with “bad genes” had “invaded” the country. During a rally in Arizona on Sunday, Trump baselessly suggested that if Harris won, “the entire country will be turned into a migrant camp.” In Colorado, just two days earlier, he vowed to initiate the “largest deportation operation in the history of the United States,” stating, “We will close the border. We will stop the invasion of illegals into our country. We will defend our territory. We will not be conquered.”

Trump escalated his rhetoric further over the weekend, threatening to use the military against what he called “the enemy from within.” In an interview on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” he hinted at turning the military on his political opponents. The former president, who incited violence after losing the 2020 election, had also said at a rally on Saturday that a heckler, who was exercising her right to free speech, should “get the hell knocked out of” her.

In another display of how Trump might use presidential power for personal and political advantage, he threatened to withhold federal disaster aid from California, a state run by Democrats. Trump also falsely accused Harris and President Joe Biden of denying aid to Republican districts affected by hurricanes. He even suggested that CBS should lose its broadcasting license because he disagreed with how the network handled Harris’ interview on “60 Minutes,” an interview he had declined to participate in. Trump’s allies raised concerns about how the potential new administration might treat big business, threatening to cancel Deloitte’s federal contracts after an employee allegedly leaked private messages from Senator JD Vance criticizing Trump.

Details have also emerged regarding Trump’s ties to foreign autocrats. The Kremlin recently confirmed that Trump had sent COVID-19 tests to Russia’s authoritarian leader, Vladimir Putin, during the pandemic—a pandemic Trump had frequently downplayed.

Although Trump has a history of making grand promises that do not always materialize, his past actions suggest his threats should not be dismissed. Furthermore, a recent Supreme Court ruling, which grants broad immunity to presidents, highlights the minimal constraints on executive power, raising concerns about Trump’s potential for authoritarian rule.

Trump’s increasingly extreme rhetoric has amplified the pressure on Kamala Harris. Prominent Democratic figures, including former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, are urging voters in critical swing states to support Harris, particularly among Black and Latino communities. These voters will be essential in preventing Trump’s return to power.

Harris, during a rally in North Carolina on Sunday, sharpened her criticisms of Trump, accusing him of refusing to release his medical records and evading a second debate with her. She also noted his decision to decline an interview with “60 Minutes.” “He’s not being transparent with the voters,” Harris said. “It makes you wonder, why does his staff want him to hide away? One must question, are they afraid that people will see that he is too weak and unstable?”

Democratic Fears Rise

Many Democrats are becoming increasingly concerned that the initial excitement surrounding Harris’ campaign has not translated into a decisive lead over Trump. Despite her strong entry into the race and a successful debate performance, national polls show no clear leader.

The most recent polling averages suggest a tight race, and Democrats fear that, like Hillary Clinton in 2016, Harris could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College. The fact that the contest remains so close despite Trump’s extreme positions suggests that his message is resonating with a significant portion of the electorate. Republicans have blamed the Harris-Biden administration for rising inflation, and Trump has frequently pointed to the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan as evidence of the current administration’s perceived weakness on the global stage. Additionally, Democrats’ failure to address immigration early in Biden’s term has left them vulnerable to Trump’s aggressive stance on the issue.

The close contest also reveals that, despite Trump’s unapologetic extremism, Democrats have once again struggled to produce a candidate or message that can decisively reassure voters. While many liberals and moderates are alarmed by Trump’s authoritarian vision, he continues to lead on what voters say is the top issue: the economy. A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll showed that 59% of respondents believe the economy is worsening, even though inflation has eased, interest rates are declining, and the job market remains strong.

Harris, as the incumbent vice president, faces an uphill battle. Her failure to distinguish herself from Biden’s policies in a recent interview with “The View” could prove costly, as Trump is likely to exploit this weakness all the way to Election Day. Harris has outlined policies to address housing affordability, healthcare costs, and immigration reform, but these initiatives have often been overshadowed by Trump’s dramatic promises to deport migrants, impose tariffs on trade rivals, and restore order to a chaotic world.

Still, there are signs of hope for Democrats. Trump’s polling numbers rarely exceed 48%, suggesting that his support remains capped, while Harris may still have room to gain. In a recent NBC News poll, 10% of voters indicated they might change their minds, and a small but potentially decisive portion of the electorate remains uncommitted. In key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia, even minor shifts in support could make a significant difference.

What Harris Must Do

Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik believes the election remains a 50-50 contest and that Harris has stalled while Trump has gained ground. He suggested the race could come down to which candidate can effectively position themselves as a change agent.

In a memo released Sunday, Trump’s campaign claimed that Harris had already lost the argument on change. “She can’t convince the voters that she is ‘the change agent’ in the race, that she will be better on the economy, inflation, immigration, crime, or improving people’s financial situation,” the memo stated. “The bottom line is that voters say President Trump will do a better job.”

Sosnik argued that Harris must rise to the pressure and scrutiny, giving voters a clear reason to support her. “They don’t feel like she has given them enough reason to vote for her,” he said.

Harris faces a complicated path, made more difficult by the lack of direct engagement with Trump, who has avoided most mainstream media and refuses to participate in a second debate. Trump’s rallies, once a staple of cable news coverage, now receive limited attention outside conservative media, meaning many voters may not fully grasp the extent of his increasingly extreme positions.

Obama, appearing at a rally for Harris in Pennsylvania last week, expressed disbelief at Trump’s continued popularity. “There is absolutely no evidence that this man thinks about anyone but himself,” Obama said. “Donald Trump sees power as nothing more than a means to an end.”

Nevertheless, Trump, despite his impeachments, criminal conviction, and attempts to undermine democracy, remains within striking distance of reclaiming the presidency—with a more radical agenda than ever before.

On November 5, voters across the U.S. will cast their ballots to elect the next president. Initially anticipated to be a repeat of the 2020 election, the race was drastically altered in July when President Joe Biden withdrew his bid for re-election and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris. This shift has set up a historic showdown: will Kamala Harris become the first female president, or will Donald Trump secure a second term?

As election day nears, poll trackers are closely monitoring the race for the White House, gauging the influence of campaign events on voter preferences.

Who Leads the National Polls?

Since her entry into the race at the end of July, Harris has held a steady lead over Trump in national polling averages. These polls, regularly updated and rounded to the nearest whole number, show Harris maintaining her advantage in the race.

One significant campaign event was a televised debate on September 10 in Pennsylvania, which attracted more than 67 million viewers. Polls conducted in the week following the debate suggested Harris gained momentum, with her lead growing from 2.5 percentage points before the debate to 3.3 points a week later.

Most of this gain can be attributed to a slight dip in Trump’s polling numbers. Although Trump’s popularity had been rising in the lead-up to the debate, his numbers fell by half a percentage point afterward.

The poll tracker indicates these marginal shifts, with trend lines showing the changing averages and dots representing the individual poll results for both candidates.

While national polls provide insight into each candidate’s popularity, they are not necessarily predictive of the election outcome. This is because the U.S. does not use a simple popular vote system to decide the president. Instead, an electoral college system determines the winner, with each state allocated a certain number of votes, reflecting its population size. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes out of 538 to win the presidency.

Who Leads in Swing State Polls?

In the current electoral race, the real battleground is in the swing states. Of the 50 states, only a few—referred to as battleground or swing states—are truly up for grabs. These are the states where the election will likely be decided, as most other states consistently lean toward one party.

Polling in the seven key battleground states reveals an extremely close race, with only one or two percentage points separating Harris and Trump. Pennsylvania, a pivotal state with the highest number of electoral votes among the battlegrounds, is particularly critical. Winning Pennsylvania would make it significantly easier for either candidate to reach the necessary 270 electoral votes.

Interestingly, the dynamics of the race have shifted dramatically since Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee. On the day Biden dropped out, he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points in these battleground states. Harris has narrowed that gap considerably, reflecting her growing strength in these crucial regions.

However, it’s important to note that fewer state-level polls are conducted compared to national polls, meaning less data is available. Additionally, all polls have margins of error, which means actual voter preferences could differ slightly from the poll results.

Despite these limitations, the trends since Harris joined the race indicate some areas where she holds an advantage. Polling averages show that Harris has been leading in three key battleground states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—since early August. Yet, these leads are narrow.

Historically, all three of these states were Democratic strongholds until Trump turned them red in 2016, helping him win the presidency. Biden managed to flip them back to the Democratic column in 2020, and if Harris can do the same this year, she will be well-positioned to win the election.

How Are Polling Averages Calculated?

The polling averages presented in this article are sourced from 538, a polling analysis website operated by ABC News. 538 gathers data from various polling companies, both at the national level and within battleground states.

To ensure accuracy, 538 uses strict quality controls and only includes polls from companies that meet certain transparency standards. For example, polling firms must disclose the number of people surveyed, the timing of the poll, and the method used—whether it was conducted by phone, online, or via text.

This level of detail is critical in ensuring the reliability of the polling averages.

Can We Trust the Polls?

As of now, polls suggest that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in the crucial swing states. With the race so close, predicting the outcome is difficult.

Recent elections have shown that polls can underestimate Trump’s support. This happened in both 2016 and 2020, when polling companies failed to accurately predict his level of backing. Polling organizations are working to address this issue by refining their methods, aiming to ensure their results better reflect the makeup of the voting population.

One major challenge for pollsters is accounting for voter turnout. Accurately predicting who will actually show up at the polls on November 5 remains a guessing game, despite efforts to improve polling accuracy.

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be a close and potentially historic race. While Kamala Harris has a slight edge in national polls and is gaining ground in key battleground states, Donald Trump remains a formidable opponent. The election will ultimately be decided by the voters in a handful of crucial swing states, where the margins are razor-thin. As November 5 approaches, both candidates will be making their final push to sway undecided voters in these pivotal areas. The stakes are high, and the outcome is anything but certain.

A better-than-expected jobs report, coupled with the swift resolution of a longshoremen’s strike, has provided a significant boost to Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign. The strike, which had the potential to severely disrupt the U.S. economy, was the most politically dangerous of several challenges Harris and the White House faced recently.

The White House moved swiftly to end the strike, applying pressure on both the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) to reach a deal. The strike, which began after the two sides failed to agree on a contract by Monday, shut down key ports along the East and Gulf Coasts. It threatened to bottleneck the economy just a month before the election, posing a major risk to Harris and the administration.

Fortunately for Harris, the strike was resolved Thursday night, with the longshoremen’s union and port operators reaching a tentative agreement after two days of stoppage. This resolution was further bolstered by Friday’s jobs report, which showed a stronger labor market than anticipated.

In September, the U.S. added 254,000 jobs, far surpassing the 140,000 jobs forecasted by economists. Additionally, revisions for July and August showed an extra 72,000 jobs were created during those months, suggesting that earlier concerns about a weakening labor market were overstated. The unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.1%, further easing fears of rising joblessness.

This encouraging jobs report came as inflation moved closer to the Federal Reserve’s target. After peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, the highest in 40 years, inflation has since dropped to 2.5% as of August. Meanwhile, wage growth continues to outpace inflation, with average hourly earnings rising 4% over the past year.

The Federal Reserve, which had previously raised interest rates to combat inflation, indicated it was winding down its inflation-fighting efforts by lowering rates for the first time in September, with a 50-basis-point cut.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, praised the latest economic data, stating, “The jobs report for September cements my view that the economy is about as good as it gets.” He added, “The economy is creating lots of jobs across many industries, consistent with robust labor force growth, and thus low and stable unemployment.”

Zandi went on to emphasize that the U.S. economy is currently at full employment. “Wage growth is strong, and given big productivity gains, it is consistent with low and stable inflation. One couldn’t paint a prettier picture of the job market and broader economy,” he said.

President Joe Biden appeared at the White House press briefing to highlight both the resolution of the port strike and the positive jobs report. “The past two days, we’ve gotten some very good news about the American economy,” Biden said on Friday.

“Just yesterday, shipping carriers, after some discussion with the International Longshoremen’s union, came to an agreement to keep the ports of the East Coast and the Gulf ports open,” Biden noted. He emphasized the importance of this agreement, stating, “We averted what could have become a major crisis for the country.”

He also expressed excitement about the jobs numbers, saying, “Today, I got more incredible news.” Biden attributed the quick resolution of the port strike and the positive jobs report as signs that the economy was on solid footing.

According to Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, the good economic news was a boost for Harris’s campaign. “Harris is not literally running for reelection, but she is coming out of an incumbent administration, so she is being judged on the state of the current economy,” Tedeschi said. “Anything that is good about the current economy probably helps her, whether fairly or unfairly.”

Although Harris has lagged behind former President Donald Trump in terms of handling the economy since joining the race in late July, recent polls suggest she has been making gains. A Marist poll conducted in September showed Harris trailing Trump by just four points on the economy, a notable improvement from the nine-point gap Biden had in June. Likewise, in a Fox News poll last month, Harris was only five points behind Trump, compared to Biden’s 15-point deficit in March.

Despite these improvements, Harris still trails Trump on economic issues in what is shaping up to be a close election. The Hill-Decision Desk HQ polling average shows Harris leading Trump by a slim 3.4%.

Had the port strike dragged on, it could have severely hurt Harris’s campaign. Experts estimated that the strike could have cost the economy as much as $5 billion a day, with consumers beginning to feel its effects if the strike had lasted several weeks.

Tedeschi warned that a prolonged strike could have reignited inflation, particularly short-term inflation similar to what was seen during the pandemic when supply chain disruptions caused prices to spike. “A port strike carried with it a lot of risk of inflation going forward, especially short-run inflation,” Tedeschi said, recalling the “supply chain bottleneck inflation” of the pandemic era.

The tentative deal between the longshoremen and port operators includes a 62% wage increase for dockworkers over a six-year contract. Additionally, both sides agreed to extend the current contract until January 15 to continue negotiations on other unresolved issues.

Had there been any weakening in the labor market, it could have also posed problems for Harris. The weaker-than-expected jobs report in July had led to concerns that the Federal Reserve had waited too long to lower interest rates, raising the risk of a recession.

Although the Fed opted for a more aggressive rate cut in September, Fed Chair Jerome Powell defended the bank’s earlier decision to hold rates steady, a move now seen as justified by the recent economic data.

However, the Trump campaign was quick to attack Harris following the release of Friday’s jobs report, criticizing her on manufacturing, immigration, and the lingering effects of inflation.

“Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have built back broke, losing 34,000 manufacturing jobs in just the past two months as foreign countries benefit from Harris’s weak economic policies,” said Karoline Leavitt, national press secretary for the Trump campaign.

Leavitt also argued that the administration’s “open border policies” had “destroyed” 825,000 jobs for native-born Americans in the past year, while creating 1.2 million jobs for foreign-born workers during the same period.

However, this trend is largely attributed to the retirement of baby boomers, as many U.S.-born workers have exited the workforce. Tedeschi and other economists have pointed out that the percentage of native-born Americans with jobs is at its highest level since the federal government began tracking this data.

Since September 21, when Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris declined an invitation to the Archdiocese of New York’s annual Al Smith Dinner, a fundraising event for children in need, Catholic media and commentators have been buzzing with analysis. The decision has raised eyebrows, particularly because the event is a major platform for political figures during election years.

New York Cardinal Timothy Dolan expressed surprise at the decision, noting, “We’re not used to this. We don’t know how to handle it.” He further added that such a situation hadn’t occurred in 40 years, recalling the last time when Walter Mondale declined in 1984, joking, “He lost 49 out of 50 states.”

However, it’s important to note that Harris’ decision, though rare, isn’t unprecedented. Since 1984, three of nine Al Smith Dinners held during presidential election years have taken place without either candidate in attendance. In the 1990s and again in 2004, Cardinals John O’Connor and Edward Egan chose to exclude candidates, citing the divisiveness of the campaigns. In fact, abortion has often been at the center of the drama. In 1980, Jimmy Carter was booed by attendees over his stance on abortion, and many speculated that John Kerry’s position on the issue influenced his exclusion in 2004.

Many believe that the tension around the Democratic Party’s abortion stance played a significant role in Harris’ decision. Steven Millies, a professor of public theology at Catholic Theological Union in Chicago, suggested that Cardinal Dolan’s perceived friendliness with Donald Trump may have also contributed. Millies pointed out, “There’s just discomfort there that Cardinal Dolan has not gone to the lengths to seem nonpartisan” as his predecessors had done.

The Archdiocese of New York did not comment on efforts to persuade the Harris campaign to attend the dinner.

Natalia Imperatori-Lee, a professor of religious studies at Manhattan University, echoed these sentiments, suggesting that Harris’ caution may also be linked to the broader political climate. “The Al Smith dinner may have been a ‘lighthearted fundraising event’ in the past, but now, with the increasing influence of Catholic bishops in U.S. politics, particularly in support of conservative causes, it may be perceived differently,” she said. She pointed to how some bishops have been vocally critical of President Joe Biden, particularly over his stance on abortion rights, with some even threatening to withhold Communion from him.

“If that’s the way they treated the Catholic president, why would she go?” Imperatori-Lee added, referencing Harris’ support for abortion rights, which has been a key part of her campaign.

Millies also speculated that Harris may be calculating that leaving Trump as the sole speaker could give him more opportunities to make controversial statements. “There’s a better than 50-50 chance that Trump will put his foot in his mouth at the Al Smith dinner anyway, and I wouldn’t want to get in his way if I were Kamala Harris when he does that,” Millies said.

Trump has a history of turning religious events into political battlegrounds. In 2016, during his appearance at the Al Smith Dinner, which traditionally features humorous remarks, Trump used the opportunity to launch personal attacks on his then-opponent, Hillary Clinton. He accused her of being “corrupt” and anti-Catholic, drawing boos from the audience. “Here she is tonight, in public, pretending not to hate Catholics,” Trump remarked about Clinton.

Clinton, for her part, responded by raising concerns about Trump’s allegations of a “rigged” election, adding, “I didn’t think he’d be OK with a peaceful transition of power.” Her comments foreshadowed Trump’s later controversies regarding the 2020 election results.

Trump’s pattern of mixing politics with religious events didn’t stop there. Four years later, at the National Prayer Breakfast, Trump, fresh from his first impeachment trial, used the platform to criticize House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senator Mitt Romney. He accused Pelosi of lying when she said she prayed for him and attacked Romney for “using” his faith as justification when he voted to convict Trump. “I don’t like people who use faith for justification for doing what they know is wrong,” Trump said at the time.

The fallout from these appearances has had a lasting impact. The National Prayer Breakfast has since been scaled back, moving from a large gathering to a smaller, more intimate event held at the U.S. Capitol.

Imperatori-Lee suggested that Harris’ decision to skip the Al Smith Dinner might also be due to the compressed nature of her campaign. Harris officially launched her presidential bid only two months ago, leaving little time to participate in non-essential events. “Vice President Harris is probably being very cautious about where she spends her time,” Imperatori-Lee said.

She further questioned whether the Al Smith Dinner holds much importance for the average Catholic voter. “Maybe Catholics in New York care about the Al Smith dinner,” she said. “But are Catholics in New York really a demographic that is going to move the needle for Vice President Harris or for any down-ballot people that she might be interested in helping? No.”

More significantly, Millies suggested that Harris’ decision signals a broader shift in the political landscape, with Catholic voters increasingly aligning with the Republican Party. He explained, “Catholics are now settling into being a niche constituency of one party rather than a national constituency that’s available to both parties.”

Given this political reality, skipping the dinner might be a wise move for Harris, especially with the election expected to be extremely close. “The Catholic vote, to all appearances, isn’t going to do her any good,” Millies concluded.

Despite the absence of both Harris and Trump, the Al Smith Dinner is still expected to be a significant fundraising success. Cardinal Dolan told New York’s archdiocesan media that this year’s event is projected to raise around $9 million. He added that the dinner typically raises more money during presidential election years.

Reflecting on the importance of the event, Dolan said, “When we speak about the culture of life, the dignity and sacredness of human life from the moment of conception to natural death, we need to put our money where our mouth is. The dinner exists for these causes, not the other way around.”

In the end, Harris’ decision to decline the Al Smith Dinner invitation highlights the growing polarization around issues like abortion within U.S. politics, particularly as they intersect with religious communities. With the 2024 election drawing near, the event once again serves as a flashpoint for the ongoing debate about faith, politics, and public life.

On November 5, U.S. voters will head to the polls to elect their next president. What was initially expected to be a rematch of the 2020 election between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump took an unexpected turn in July when Biden ended his campaign and threw his support behind Vice-President Kamala Harris. This surprising move has left the nation asking one key question: Will America elect its first female president, or will Donald Trump win a second term in office?

As election day nears, the focus has shifted to how the candidates are performing in the polls. It remains to be seen whether the dynamics of the race will change before November.

Who is Leading the National Polls?

Since entering the race in late July, Harris has consistently led Trump in national polling averages. The margin has remained small but steady. In a highly anticipated debate between the two candidates held in Pennsylvania on September 10, over 67 million viewers tuned in to see how they would fare.

Harris’ performance in the debate seems to have given her a slight boost. Polls conducted in the week following the debate indicated that her lead over Trump increased slightly, rising from 2.5 percentage points to 3.3 percentage points. While this gain is marginal, it reflects a shift in momentum.

The slight increase in Harris’ lead appears to be more a result of a drop in Trump’s numbers than a significant surge in her own. Trump’s polling average had been climbing before the debate but saw a decrease of half a percentage point afterward. These small movements in the polls are tracked in national polling averages, which illustrate how each candidate is trending over time.

However, national polls, while informative, do not provide a comprehensive picture of how the election will play out. The U.S. presidential election is not determined by the national popular vote but rather by the electoral college system.

The Role of Battleground States

The outcome of the election will be decided in a handful of battleground states. While there are 50 states in the U.S., most of them consistently vote for the same party in every election. This leaves a small number of key states where the outcome remains uncertain and where both candidates have a real chance of winning. These states are critical in determining the final outcome and are known as battleground states.

At present, the race in these battleground states is extremely close, with only a one or two percentage point difference separating Harris and Trump in most of them. Pennsylvania, in particular, is a crucial battleground because it has the largest number of electoral votes among these key states. Winning Pennsylvania could be the key to securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

Before Harris became the Democratic nominee, Biden had been trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points in the seven battleground states. However, Harris’ entry into the race has shifted the dynamics. She is now performing better in several of these states than Biden had been before he exited the race.

Although there are fewer state-level polls than national polls, making it more difficult to draw conclusions, the available data shows that Harris has been gaining ground in certain battleground states. The margin of error in state polls also complicates the picture, as the actual numbers could be slightly higher or lower than reported.

Nonetheless, the trends since Harris entered the race suggest that she is in a stronger position in some key states. Polling averages show that Harris has been leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin since the beginning of August. These states, once considered Democratic strongholds, flipped to Trump in 2016, contributing to his victory. Biden won them back in 2020, and if Harris can do the same, she will be well on her way to winning the election.

How Polling Averages Are Created

The polling data used to track the race comes from various sources, including the well-known polling analysis website 538, which is affiliated with ABC News. 538 compiles data from numerous individual polls conducted both nationally and in battleground states. The polls come from a variety of polling companies, and 538 applies strict quality control measures to ensure that only polls meeting specific criteria are included in their averages. These criteria include transparency regarding the number of people polled, the time frame in which the poll was conducted, and the methodology used (e.g., phone calls, text messages, or online surveys).

By aggregating data from multiple polls, 538 creates an average that offers a more reliable indicator of where the race stands than any individual poll could provide. The methodology ensures that only credible polls are considered, reducing the likelihood of inaccurate results.

Can We Trust the Polls?

Although polls provide valuable insights, their accuracy in predicting the final outcome remains uncertain. In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, polls underestimated support for Trump, leading to unexpected results. Polling companies are working to address these past mistakes, adjusting their models to better reflect the composition of the voting population.

However, even with these adjustments, there are still challenges. One of the biggest unknowns is voter turnout. Pollsters must make educated guesses about who is most likely to vote on November 5. Voter turnout is notoriously difficult to predict, and it can have a significant impact on the election’s outcome.

At the moment, polls suggest that Harris and Trump are neck and neck in battleground states, with only a few percentage points separating them. When the race is this close, it becomes nearly impossible to predict the winner with certainty.

While Harris has the advantage in national polls, the electoral college system means that the results in a few key states will ultimately decide the election. As election day approaches, both candidates will likely focus their efforts on winning over voters in these battleground states, knowing that even a small shift in the polls could determine the next president of the United States.

While the current polling suggests that Harris has a slight edge, the election remains too close to call. With both candidates vying for victory in a handful of battleground states, the outcome will likely hinge on voter turnout and the final days of campaigning. As the country watches and waits, one thing is clear: this election has the potential to make history.

A virtual event hosted by Oprah Winfrey on the evening of September 19 aimed at energizing Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign saw emotional moments and celebrity appearances, attracting a massive audience across social media platforms. Titled “Unite for America,” the event was organized in collaboration with the activist group Win with Black Women. It focused on voter registration and rallying support for Harris in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan, all of which are expected to play a decisive role in the November 5 election.

One of the event’s most poignant moments came when Shanette Williams, the mother of Amber Nicole Thurman, a 28-year-old Georgia woman who passed away in August 2022 due to a delayed hospital treatment under the state’s restrictive abortion laws, addressed the virtual audience. Fighting back tears, Williams shared her grief: “You’re looking at a mother that is broken, the worst pain ever that a mother, that a parent can ever feel.” Harris responded empathetically: “I’m just so sad. And the courage that you all have shown is extraordinary.” The response drew tears from many in the studio audience of about 400 people.

Another emotional moment occurred when 15-year-old Natalie Griffith, a student at Apalachee High School in Georgia, sat in the front row alongside her parents. Natalie had recently survived a shooting in her math class just two weeks earlier, during which she was shot twice. Her mother, Marilda Griffith, expressed her frustration and sorrow: “What are we doing? We have a job, that job is to protect our children. We have to stop it.” Her plea moved many in both the virtual and in-person audience to tears.

Kamala Harris, along with the Democratic Party, has made significant promises regarding two key issues that were highlighted during the event. First, they have committed to restoring national abortion rights, which were severely impacted by the Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling. Second, Harris has vowed to push for a ban on assault weapons, which are frequently used in mass shootings like the one that affected Natalie Griffith.

The event also featured a host of celebrity appearances, lending their voices in support of Harris’ campaign. Among them were comedians Chris Rock and Ben Stiller, along with actors Julia Roberts, Meryl Streep, and Bryan Cranston. The celebrities offered their endorsements for Harris or posed questions to her during the event. Chris Rock, who was particularly enthusiastic about Harris’ candidacy, remarked, “I want to bring my daughters to the White House to meet this Black woman president.”

Oprah Winfrey, acting as the evening’s host, acknowledged Harris’ remarkable rise after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in late July. Winfrey praised Harris for “stepping into her power” and taking command of her campaign. Harris reflected on the significance of this moment, saying, “You know we each have those moments in our lives when it’s time to step up.”

Harris’ strength as a presidential candidate had been questioned earlier in the campaign, even by some Democrats, including Biden himself. However, since Biden’s departure, Harris has managed to revitalize the Democratic Party’s prospects. Her campaign has brought in renewed enthusiasm and a surge in fundraising, boosting the party’s momentum going into the final stretch of the election.

One candid moment during the event occurred when Winfrey revealed that she had been unaware of Harris’ ownership of a firearm until the candidate’s debate with Republican rival Donald Trump. Harris responded with humor and honesty: “If somebody breaks in my house, they’re getting shot.” Realizing the weight of her statement, Harris quickly added, “Probably should not have said that.”

Harris’ campaign advisors reported that close to 200,000 people had signed up to watch the event live, and by the end of the night, the YouTube stream alone had nearly 100,000 viewers. The event was also broadcast on Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, and Twitch via the accounts of both Winfrey and Harris, further expanding its reach.

The virtual event brought together a number of grassroots organizations in a show of unity and support for Harris. Groups such as Latinas for Harris, White Dudes for Harris, and Win With Black Men had each been organizing and fundraising independently since Harris became the Democratic nominee. Thursday night’s event marked the first time they had all joined forces in a single, collective effort.

Polling data released ahead of the event provided a glimpse into the state of the race. According to a Reuters poll, Harris held a narrow lead over her opponent Donald Trump, with 47% of the vote to Trump’s 42%. In key battleground states, Harris had a slight advantage. She led in states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and North Carolina, while Trump was ahead in Georgia. The candidates were tied in Arizona, another crucial state in the upcoming election.

Despite Harris’ growing support, her campaign team remained cautious. “And while we have this extraordinary growing enthusiasm that the Vice President and Governor Walz are seeing everywhere, we are still in a margin of error race. It’s tied. It’s tied right here in Michigan. It’s tied in all the battleground states,” campaign chief Jen O’Malley Dillon warned the audience.

Earlier on September 18, the Uncommitted National Movement, a pro-Palestinian grassroots organization with a significant presence in Michigan, announced that it would not be endorsing Harris in the election. While the group expressed opposition to both Harris and Trump, it stopped short of encouraging its supporters to vote for third-party candidates.

As Harris continues to make her case to voters, her campaign has garnered increased attention and support from a wide range of Americans, including celebrities, activists, and everyday citizens. The emotional appeals and high-profile endorsements from the event hosted by Oprah Winfrey are expected to play a pivotal role in energizing voters as the November 5 election approaches.

The U.S. Secret Service confirmed on Monday that it was aware of a social media post by billionaire Elon Musk, in which he commented on the absence of assassination attempts against President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Musk, the owner of the platform X, formerly known as Twitter, made the remark after a man suspected of plotting to kill former Republican President Donald Trump was arrested at Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach on Sunday.

In his post, Musk, a supporter of Trump and the CEO of Tesla, reflected on the situation and wrote: “And no one is even trying to assassinate Biden/Kamala,” concluding his post with an eyebrow-raising emoji. The statement quickly drew backlash from both sides of the political spectrum, with users of X expressing concern that Musk’s words could potentially incite violence against the current president and vice president, who are key figures in the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Musk’s post, which was visible to his nearly 200 million followers, was soon deleted. However, the Secret Service, whose primary responsibility is the protection of current and former U.S. leaders and other high-profile officials, had already taken note of the comment.

A spokesperson for the Secret Service stated in an email to Reuters, “The Secret Service is aware of the social media post made by Elon Musk and as a matter of practice, we do not comment on matters involving protective intelligence.” The agency emphasized, “We can say, however, that the Secret Service investigates all threats related to our protectees.”

Although the agency did not reveal whether they had directly contacted Musk regarding the matter, the billionaire responded to the criticism in subsequent posts on X. He appeared to dismiss the seriousness of the original comment, describing it as a joke. “Well, one lesson I’ve learned is that just because I say something to a group and they laugh doesn’t mean it’s going to be all that hilarious as a post on X,” Musk wrote. He acknowledged that humor often does not translate well in text, adding, “Turns out that jokes are WAY less funny if people don’t know the context and the delivery is plain text.”

Musk’s initial remark followed an incident in which a man allegedly planned to kill Trump. While no harm came to the former president, the situation drew widespread attention, particularly given the political atmosphere as the 2024 presidential election nears. Trump, who has already announced his bid for a second term in the White House, is expected to face Biden in the election. Vice President Harris, also a key figure in the campaign, is set to run for re-election alongside Biden.

In response to the news of the attempted assassination plot against Trump, both Biden and Harris expressed their relief that the former president had not been injured. Harris, a Democrat, issued a statement on Sunday night, while Biden also publicly condemned any form of political violence. The vice president’s office reiterated the importance of ensuring the safety of all political figures, regardless of party affiliation.

As expected, Musk’s post did not sit well with the White House. On Monday, Andrew Bates, a spokesperson for the White House, addressed the situation directly, condemning the tone of Musk’s remarks. “Violence should only be condemned, never encouraged or joked about. This rhetoric is irresponsible,” Bates said, emphasizing that political discourse, particularly in a tense election cycle, should not include comments that could potentially fuel harmful behavior.

The backlash Musk received for his post is not surprising, given his large and diverse following on X. With nearly 200 million people subscribed to his updates, his statements carry significant weight, and as the owner of the platform, his influence has grown even further. Despite this, Musk’s response to the controversy focused on the misunderstanding of his intended humor, rather than addressing the broader concerns about the potential impact of his words.

While it remains unclear whether the Secret Service will take any further action regarding Musk’s post, the agency’s statement highlights its ongoing responsibility to investigate any perceived threats to its protectees. Given the heightened security concerns surrounding both Biden and Harris as the 2024 election approaches, any comments, whether intended as jokes or otherwise, are likely to be taken seriously by law enforcement and government agencies.

This incident adds to the growing tension in the political landscape as the United States moves closer to another presidential election. The rise of social media and its role in shaping political discourse has been a key issue, with platforms like X serving as a battleground for public opinion, political strategy, and, in some cases, controversy.

Musk’s ownership of X has brought additional scrutiny to the platform, particularly as he often uses it to voice his opinions on various matters, including politics. Since acquiring the platform, Musk has made a number of changes, both to its structure and its policies, drawing both praise and criticism. His approach to free speech on the platform has been lauded by some as a defense of open dialogue, while others have criticized it for allowing misinformation and harmful rhetoric to spread more easily.

As the 2024 election season continues to unfold, public figures like Musk, who hold significant influence through social media, will likely face increased scrutiny for their statements. The debate over the responsibilities of social media platforms in moderating content, particularly when it comes to political discourse, is unlikely to fade anytime soon.

In this case, Musk’s deleted post serves as a reminder of the fine line between free speech and the potential consequences of public remarks, especially when made by individuals with vast platforms and influence. As the Secret Service continues to monitor threats against the president, vice president, and other officials, the role of social media in shaping political narratives and possibly inciting violence remains a critical issue for both law enforcement and the public at large.

On Sunday, Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, was unharmed after what the FBI has described as an attempted assassination. The incident occurred while Trump was golfing at his West Palm Beach, Florida course. According to law enforcement officials, Secret Service agents opened fire on a gunman who had positioned himself in bushes near the property line. The assailant was several hundred yards away from where Trump was playing.

The gunman left behind an AK-47-style assault rifle along with other belongings before fleeing the scene in a vehicle. He was arrested later. This event occurred two months after Trump had been shot at during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, suffering a minor injury to his ear. Both incidents are clear examples of the difficulties involved in protecting presidential candidates during an intense and polarized election campaign, with just over seven weeks remaining until the November 5 election.

In a post on social media, Trump addressed the situation: “I would like to thank everyone for your concern and well wishes – It was certainly an interesting day!” He also expressed gratitude to the Secret Service and local police for ensuring his safety.

Multiple media outlets, including CNN, Fox News, and The New York Times, identified the suspect as 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh from Hawaii, based on information from anonymous law enforcement sources. That same evening, agents from the Secret Service and Homeland Security searched a home in Greensboro, North Carolina, which neighbors confirmed had previously been owned by Routh.

The attack raises concerns about the adequacy of Trump’s security detail, particularly since he is no longer in office. In response to inquiries from reporters, officials acknowledged that because Trump is a private citizen, the entire golf course was not sealed off. “If he was, we would have had the entire golf course surrounded,” stated Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw during a briefing on Sunday. “Because he’s not, security is limited to the areas that the Secret Service deems possible.”

Following the incident, Trump sent an email to his supporters, declaring: “Nothing will slow me down. I will NEVER SURRENDER!”

President Joe Biden later issued a statement confirming that he had directed his team to ensure that the Secret Service had all necessary resources to maintain Trump’s safety.

Suspect’s Background and Support for Ukraine

Routh had reportedly traveled to Ukraine after Russia’s invasion in 2022, expressing his desire to assist in recruiting foreign fighters for the Ukrainian cause after he had been deemed too old to serve. In an interview with Newsweek Romania, Routh stated, “A lot of the other conflicts are grey, but this conflict is definitely black and white. This is about good versus evil.”

He further elaborated on his views, saying, “If the governments will not send their official military, then we, civilians, have to pick up the torch and make this thing happen. We have gotten some wonderful people here, but it is a small fraction of the number that should be here.” Routh was visibly emotional during the interview, urging people from around the globe to take a stand “for humanity, for human rights, for everything that is good with the world” by supporting Ukraine.

Profiles on social media platforms such as X, Facebook, and LinkedIn that appeared to belong to Routh also expressed support for Ukraine. However, Reuters was unable to confirm whether these accounts belonged to the suspect. Law enforcement officials declined to comment on the matter, and public access to the Facebook and X profiles was removed just hours after the shooting.

When contacted by Reuters, Routh’s son Adam, who works at a hardware store in Hawaii, said he was unaware of the assassination attempt and had no information. “It’s not something I would expect my father to do,” Adam remarked. Shortly after the initial conversation, Adam left work due to an emergency.

The Incident and Response

According to Sheriff Bradshaw, the gunman was first detected by a Secret Service agent who spotted the barrel of a rifle poking out from the bushes around 400 to 500 yards away from where Trump was playing. This occurred as agents were securing the course, ensuring there were no threats present before Trump advanced to the next hole.

At approximately 1:30 p.m. on Sunday, agents engaged the suspect, firing at least four shots. The gunman abandoned his rifle, leaving behind two backpacks and other items, before fleeing in a black Nissan. Fortunately, a witness was able to capture photos of the suspect’s vehicle and license plate, aiding in his capture.

The suspect was apprehended by deputies from Martin County while traveling on Interstate 95, about 40 miles from the golf course.

In a statement, the White House said both President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris were briefed on the situation and were relieved that Trump was unharmed. Trump is currently in a tight race against Harris, who has gained momentum in the polls since being named the Democratic Party’s candidate, replacing Biden in July. Harris shared her thoughts on the matter in a post on X, stating, “Violence has no place in America.”

Democracy and the Election

Earlier this year, Routh had warned in a post on X that the U.S. democracy was at risk in the upcoming election. This sentiment has been echoed by Harris, who has consistently argued that another term under Trump would endanger the nation’s democratic institutions. She has also maintained strong support for Ukraine as it continues to fight against Russian aggression.

In contrast, Trump has taken a more ambiguous stance on the Ukraine conflict. When asked during a recent debate whether he wanted Ukraine to emerge victorious, Trump replied that he wanted the war to end.

This latest attack brings renewed attention to the July 13 shooting during Trump’s campaign rally in Pennsylvania, where the former president was grazed on the right ear, and one person in attendance was killed. That event marked the first time in over four decades that a U.S. president or major party presidential candidate had been the target of gunfire. The security failure led to the resignation of Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle, following significant pressure from Congress.

Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a notable five-point lead over former President Donald Trump in two major national polls conducted shortly after their recent debate. Many political analysts have declared Harris the clear winner of the debate, with her strong performance boosting her standing among voters.

Key Poll Findings

In a poll conducted by Morning Consult on Wednesday, Harris is ahead of Trump by a margin of 50% to 45%, marking her largest lead so far in this survey group. This is a slight improvement from her previous four-point lead in a poll taken on the day of the debate, and it builds on her earlier three-point lead in surveys conducted before the event. The survey sampled 3,317 likely voters.

Similarly, a two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll concluded on Thursday shows Harris maintaining a five-point lead, with 47% of respondents supporting her compared to 42% for Trump. This is a one-point increase from a previous poll conducted by the same group between August 21 and August 28.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll also revealed that 53% of voters who had followed the debate believed Harris emerged victorious, compared to only 24% who thought Trump had won. A significant portion of the respondents did not provide an answer on this matter. The poll further showed that 91% of Democrats considered Harris the winner, while only 53% of Republicans felt the same about Trump.

Additionally, 52% of the respondents familiar with the debate said Trump did not appear as sharp as they expected, while only 21% said the same about Harris.

Pundits Weigh In

Several political analysts and commentators widely praised Harris for her debate performance. Former Fox News anchor Chris Wallace and NBC News presidential historian Michael Beschloss were among those who noted that Harris managed to put Trump on the defensive multiple times throughout the night. She questioned him about his ongoing legal troubles, criticized the size of his rally crowds, and referenced his loss in the 2020 election. Harris even brought up how U.S. military leaders allegedly view Trump as a “disgrace.”

Harris’ ability to rattle Trump and shift the narrative worked in her favor, according to many experts. By addressing key issues and managing to corner Trump on various points, she significantly strengthened her position in the race.

Poll Numbers Before and After Debate

Before the debate, Harris had been leading Trump by 2.7 points, according to polling averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight. While her lead has grown since then, polling trends suggest that her momentum may be leveling off. In one of the first major polls taken after the debate, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College from September 3 to September 6, Trump actually managed to edge out Harris by one point, securing 48% to her 47%.

Significance of the Debate

The debate, held last Tuesday, was the first and only scheduled face-off between Trump and Harris and was regarded as one of the most critical events of the 2024 presidential campaign. It marked the first time the two candidates met in person and was especially significant for Harris. Given that she entered the race later than most candidates, she is less well-known to voters from both a personal and policy standpoint.

Despite the high stakes, Harris did not introduce any new policy initiatives during the debate. Instead, the discussion largely centered around familiar topics, with the two candidates exchanging sharp criticisms over issues such as the economy, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, border policies, and abortion rights.

Harris’ performance in the debate came just over two months after President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate with Trump, which many believe ended his bid for the Democratic nomination. With Biden effectively out of the race, Harris has been able to secure her position as the Democratic frontrunner.

Debate Moderation Controversy

While Harris was widely considered the debate’s winner, some of Trump’s supporters criticized the moderators. ABC’s Linsey Davis and David Muir, who hosted the debate, were accused of showing bias by fact-checking Trump on multiple occasions but not doing the same with Harris.

Many news outlets that analyzed the candidates’ statements during the debate found that Trump made more false or misleading claims than Harris. For example, Trump inaccurately claimed that inflation was the worst it had ever been, which was widely debunked by fact-checkers. Although Harris also stretched the truth in a few instances, such as when she claimed that her stance on fracking was clear during the 2020 election, she was not corrected by the moderators.

Trump’s Reaction to the Debate

Following the debate, Trump took to his social media platform, Truth Social, to declare that he would not participate in another debate with Harris. He criticized her performance and suggested she had failed in her role as Vice President over the last four years, writing, “THERE WILL BE NO THIRD DEBATE!” Trump further accused Harris of calling for a second debate only because she lost the first one, comparing her to a “fallen UFC fighter” who wants a rematch.

As the 2024 presidential race heats up, Kamala Harris’ recent debate performance has given her a boost in national polls, leading Donald Trump by five points. While there are still months to go before the election, Harris’ ability to take control during the debate and effectively challenge Trump on key issues has strengthened her position as a strong contender for the presidency. However, with Trump’s continued presence and his refusal to debate Harris again, the dynamics of the race remain fluid. Political observers and voters alike will be closely watching how both candidates move forward in the coming weeks.

What if they win? Harris and Trump supporters differ over the acceptability of presidential actions by their own candidate.

Ahead of the scheduled Sept. 10 presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the presidential race is deadlocked. About half of registered voters (49%) say if the election were held today, they would vote for Harris, while an identical share say they would back Trump.

With less than two months before the November election, the candidates bring contrasting strengths and weaknesses to the presidential contest.

Trump’s key advantage is on the economy, which voters regard as the most important issue this year. A 55% majority of voters say they are very or somewhat confident in Trump to make good decisions about economic policy, compared with 45% who say that about Harris.

Harris’ lead over Trump on abortion is a near mirror image of Trump’s on the economy: 55% of voters have at least some confidence in Harris, while 44% express confidence in Trump.

And Harris holds sizable leads over Trump on several personal traits and characteristics, including being a good role model (a 19 percentage point advantage), down-to-earth (13 points) and honest (8 points).

The latest national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted among 9,720 adults (including 8,044 registered voters) from Aug. 26 to Sept. 2, 2024, highlights how much has changed in the campaign – and what hasn’t – since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race and Harris became the Democratic nominee.

Trump’s advantage on “mental sharpness” has disappeared. Currently, 61% of voters say the phrase “mentally sharp” describes Harris very or fairly well, compared with 52% who describe Trump this way. Two months ago, more than twice as many voters viewed Trump as mentally sharp (58%) than said that about Biden (24%). (Read more about perceptions of the candidates in Chapter 3.)

Democratic satisfaction with the candidates has increased. The share of Harris supporters who are very or fairly satisfied with the presidential candidates is nearly triple the share of Biden supporters who were satisfied in July (52% now vs. 18% then). As a result, Harris backers now are more likely than Trump backers to say they are satisfied with the candidates, a clear reversal from just two months ago. (Read more about voter engagement and views of the candidates in Chapter 5.)

The state of the race. The overall patterns of support for each candidate have changed little since last month. For instance, Trump holds a lead among White voters (56% to 42%), while Harris maintains large advantages with Black voters (84% to 13%) and Asian voters (61% to 37%). Latino voters, whose support was evenly divided between Biden and Trump in July, now favor Harris, 57% to 39%. (Read more voter preferences in Chapter 1 and explore demographic breaks on voter preferences in the detailed tables.)

Americans’ views of the economy continue to be largely negative. Americans’ views of the national economy are about as negative today as they were at the start of this year. Only 25% rate national economic conditions excellent or good. Prices for food and consumer goods continue to be a major concern for most Americans, and increasing shares express concerns about housing costs and jobs. (Read more about economic attitudes in Chapter 7.)

In a historic election, how voters view the impact of candidates’ races and ethnicities, genders and ages

If she wins in November, Harris will make history by becoming the first woman president. She would also be the first Asian American and first Black woman president. If Trump wins, he will become the oldest person to take office, at 78. (Read more about voters’ views of the candidates’ demographic characteristics in Chapter 4.)

Voters overall have mixed views of the impact of Harris’ gender and race and ethnicity on her candidacy. More say the fact that Harris is a woman and that she is Black and Asian will help her than hurt her with voters this fall. Somewhat more voters see Harris’ gender as a potential negative (30%) than see her race and ethnicity this way (19%).

Harris supporters are far more likely than Trump supporters to say the vice president’s gender and race will be a liability. More than twice as many Harris supporters (42%) as Trump supporters (16%) say the fact that Harris is a woman will hurt her with voters. Fewer Harris supporters think her race and ethnicity will be a hindrance (31%), but just 8% of Trump supporters say the same.

Nearly half of voters say Trump’s age will hurt his candidacy. Far more voters say Trump’s age will hurt him (49%) than help him (3%) in the election; the remainder say it will not make much difference. The reverse is true for how voters see the effect of Harris’ age: 46% say the fact that she is 59 will help her with voters, while just 3% say it will hurt her.

Harris, Trump supporters weigh in: What actions are acceptable for a president?

Looking ahead, Harris and Trump supporters have very different ideas about the kinds of presidential actions that would be acceptable if their preferred candidate takes office (read more about these views in Chapter 6):

Investigating political opponents

More than half of Trump supporters (54%) say it would definitely or probably be acceptable for Trump to order federal law enforcement officials to investigate Democratic opponents. Half as many Harris supporters (27%) say it would be acceptable for Harris to order investigations into GOP opponents.

Pardoning family, friends and supporters; firing disloyal federal workers

Trump supporters also are far more likely than Harris supporters to say it would be acceptable for their candidate to pardon friends, family or political supporters who have been convicted of crimes and to fire federal workers at any level who are not personally loyal to them.

Executive orders

Majorities of both Trump supporters (58%) and Harris supporters (55%) say it would be acceptable for their candidate, if they win, to use executive orders to make policies when they can’t get their priorities through Congress.

Other findings: An uncertain election outcome, the more critical candidate, Trump and the 2020 election

Trump is widely viewed as too personally critical of Harris. About two-thirds of voters (66%) say Trump has been too personally critical of Harris. By comparison, fewer (45%) say Harris has been too personally critical of Trump. About four-in-ten Trump supporters (41%) say Trump has been too critical of his opponent, compared with just 12% of Harris supporters who say the same of Harris.

Most say it’s not yet clear who will win. Only 20% of voters say it is already clear which candidate will win the election, while 80% say it is not yet clear. Voters who say it is clear who will win overwhelmingly say their preferred candidate will prevail. When those who say it is not yet clear are asked for their “best guess,” they also opt for their candidate.

Trump’s role in the 2020 election remains divisive. More than four-in-ten voters (46%) say Trump broke the law in an effort to change the outcome of the 2020 election, while another 14% say he did something wrong but did not break the law. Another 27% say Trump did nothing wrong. These views are largely unchanged since April. While Harris supporters overwhelmingly say Trump broke the law (88% say this), Trump backers are divided: 54% say he did nothing wrong while 27% say either he did something wrong or broke the law. Trump supporters (18%) are more likely than Harris supporters (7%) to say they are not sure.

Voters also divided on Trump’s New York fraud case. The survey was completed before a New York judge delayed sentencing in the criminal case against Trump in which he was found guilty of falsifying business records and other charges related to “hush money” payments to Stormy Daniels. Among all voters, 39% say Trump should serve time in jail, while 45% say he should not. About seven-in-ten Harris supporters (72%) think Trump should have to serve jail time, while an even larger share of Trump supporters (81%) say he should not.

Source Credit: Pew Research Center

Pope Francis expressed strong criticism toward both U.S. presidential candidates, focusing on their stances regarding abortion and migration. He urged American Catholics to vote in the upcoming election by determining who represents the “lesser evil” between the two. The Pope condemned both candidates for promoting what he labeled “anti-life” policies, highlighting the moral dilemmas faced by voters.

“Both are against life, be it the one who kicks out migrants, or be it the one who kills babies,” Pope Francis remarked during a news conference held aboard a plane as he returned to Rome following his four-nation visit to Asia.

Although Pope Francis did not directly name the Republican candidate Donald Trump or the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, his remarks addressed two major issues central to the U.S. election. His strong criticism reflected his deep concerns about the stance of each candidate on abortion and migration, topics that are significant to the Catholic Church.

Abortion and Migration as Moral Concerns

Throughout his papacy, Pope Francis has prioritized advocating for the rights of migrants, speaking out passionately on the topic. He also upholds the Catholic Church’s long-standing position against abortion but has not placed the same level of emphasis on this doctrine as his predecessors. In his recent comments, the pontiff made his position on abortion clear, calling it a form of killing.

“To have an abortion is to kill a human being. You may like the word or not, but it’s killing,” Pope Francis stated. He added, “We have to see this clearly.”

His comments reflect the church’s unwavering stance on the sanctity of life from conception, a key belief upheld by Catholics worldwide. However, he also took the opportunity to emphasize that denying migrants entry and disregarding their human rights is equally concerning.

Voting and Moral Responsibility

When asked how American Catholics should approach their decision at the polls, Pope Francis emphasized the importance of exercising one’s civic duty to vote. He acknowledged that neither candidate may represent an ideal choice, but stressed that it is still necessary to participate in the electoral process.

“One should vote, and choose the lesser evil,” Pope Francis said. He explained that voters need to examine their conscience to determine which candidate aligns more closely with their values. “Who is the lesser evil, the woman or man? I don’t know,” he added, acknowledging the difficulty of the decision.

While neither Trump nor Harris was directly named in the Pope’s remarks, his comments were clearly directed toward their policies on abortion and immigration. Both campaigns, however, did not immediately respond to these statements when asked by The Associated Press.

Biden and the Catholic Church

U.S. President Joe Biden, a practicing Catholic, supports abortion rights, aligning with his running mate Kamala Harris on the issue. This stance has led to some controversy within the Catholic community, with conservative bishops and others calling for Biden to be denied Communion. Despite this, Biden has maintained a positive relationship with Pope Francis, particularly following a 2021 meeting in which the Pope reportedly assured Biden that he remained a “good Catholic.”

This issue of abortion has created divisions within the church, with some U.S. bishops taking a hardline stance. However, Pope Francis has urged bishops to focus on their pastoral duties, advising them to avoid becoming overly political. He has previously stated that bishops should not act like politicians when dealing with such sensitive issues.

Previous U.S. Election Commentary

This is not the first time that Pope Francis has commented on a U.S. presidential election. During the 2016 election, he criticized Trump’s plan to construct a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, stating that anyone who seeks to build barriers to prevent migrants from entering “is not Christian.” At that time, Francis condemned the exclusionary policies that he saw as being contrary to Christian values.

In his remarks on Friday, Francis recalled a past Mass he celebrated at the U.S.-Mexico border, during which he was struck by the suffering endured by migrants. “There were so many shoes of the migrants who ended up badly there,” the Pope recounted, once again highlighting the ongoing humanitarian crisis at the border.

Migration and Its Role in the Election

Migration continues to be a significant issue in U.S. politics, and Trump has reiterated his stance on the matter, promising large-scale deportations if re-elected. During his first campaign, Trump’s immigration policies faced significant legal, financial, and political challenges, but he has remained committed to similar proposals in his current bid for the presidency.

On the other hand, the U.S. bishops’ conference has identified abortion as the “preeminent priority” for American Catholics when considering their vote. Harris has consistently defended abortion rights and advocated for the restoration of federal protections for abortion access.

Pope Francis reiterated the church’s position on abortion during the news conference, referencing scientific findings about the development of a fetus. “On abortion, science says that a month from conception, all the organs of a human being are already there, all of them. Performing an abortion is killing a human being,” he stated. He continued, “You can’t say the church is closed because it does not allow abortion. The church does not allow abortion because it’s killing. It is murder.”

Despite the Pope’s strong stance, scientific understanding of fetal development differs slightly. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists clarifies that organs begin forming early in pregnancy, but full organ development does not occur until later in the first trimester, around 13 weeks.

Other Remarks from the Pope

In addition to discussing the U.S. election, Pope Francis touched on several other topics during the news conference. He firmly denied a report from French media claiming he would attend the inauguration of the restored Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris this December. He confirmed that he has no plans to visit Paris at that time but expressed a desire to travel to the Canary Islands to draw attention to the plight of migrants in that region.

Speculation has also continued to swirl around the possibility of the Pope returning to his homeland of Argentina later this year. Francis has not visited Argentina since he was elected pope in 2013, but on Friday, he stated that while he hopes to return, no decision has been made. “There are various things to resolve first,” he added, without providing further details.

In a more hopeful tone, Pope Francis described China as “a promise and a hope” for the Catholic Church and reiterated his desire to visit the country one day. He has long expressed optimism about the future of Catholicism in China.

Finally, Francis addressed the issue of sexual abuse within the church, calling the recent revelations about French priest Abbe Pierre “demonic.” His strong words underscored the church’s ongoing efforts to confront and address instances of abuse.

Heading into the fall campaign for president, U.S. religious groups that traditionally have leaned Republican are backing former President Donald Trump by wide margins, while religious groups that traditionally have favored Democratic candidates are mostly supporting Vice President Kamala Harris.

The latest Pew Research Center survey, conducted Aug. 26-Sept. 2, 2024, finds that majorities of registered voters in three key religious groups say they would vote for Trump or lean toward doing so if the election were today:

• 82% of White evangelical Protestants
• 61% of White Catholics
• 58% of White nonevangelical Protestants

Harris currently has the backing of roughly two-thirds or more registered voters in various other religious groups:

• 86% of Black Protestants
• 85% of atheists
• 78% of agnostics
• 65% of Hispanic Catholics
• 65% of Jewish voters

The survey includes responses from Muslims, Buddhists, Hindus and people from many other religious backgrounds. However, it does not include enough respondents from these smaller religious groups to be able to report on them separately.

Harris has improved on Biden’s performance with some religious groups

The new survey marks the first time that the Center has asked about voters’ preferences between Trump and Harris – without asking about any third-party candidates – since President Joe Biden withdrew as the Democratic nominee and independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign.

Harris currently garners more support from Black Protestants and Hispanic Catholics than Biden did in April, when 77% of Black Protestants and 49% of Hispanic Catholics backed him.

Otherwise, the religious dynamics of the U.S. presidential campaign look about as they did in the spring.

Support for Trump varies by church attendance

Among White evangelicals, support for Trump is higher among those who attend church regularly – that is, at least once or twice a month – than among those who don’t. Support for Trump is also marginally higher among White Catholics who attend Mass at least monthly than among White Catholics who attend Mass less often.

By contrast, among White Protestants who are not evangelical, support for Trump is somewhat lower among regular churchgoers than among those who don’t attend church regularly.

There are no such differences in support for Harris among Black Protestants: 86% of both regular churchgoers and those who don’t often go to church support her.

How U.S. religious groups view key issues in the election

We also asked respondents how important a variety of issues will be to their vote in the presidential election.

Certain issues are highly important to voters regardless of religious group. For instance, at least six-in-ten registered voters in every religious group say the economy will be very important in their voting decision. And half or more in almost every religious group say the same about health care, Supreme Court appointments and foreign policy.

White evangelical Protestant voters stand out for the high level of importance they attach to immigration. Roughly eight-in-ten White evangelicals (79%) say immigration will be very important in their voting decision – higher than any other group. A large majority of White Catholics (72%) also say immigration will be a key factor in their decision.

Abortion, in turn, is rated as a very important issue by more atheists (a group that mostly supports legal abortion) than by people with other religious identities. Roughly three-quarters of atheists (77%) say abortion will be very important in deciding who to vote for. Around six-in-ten agnostics (62%), Jewish voters (59%) and Black Protestants (57%) also say abortion will be very important in deciding how to vote this fall. Fewer Catholics (44%) and White Protestants (including 48% of evangelicals and 43% of nonevangelicals) say the same.

These differences across religious groups reflect broader partisan patterns. White evangelicals and White Catholics mostly identify with or lean toward the Republican Party and support Trump in the current election. And the new survey shows that more Republican voters than Democratic voters say immigration will be very important to their choice this fall.

Source Credit: Pew Research Center

The number of children living in poverty surged significantly in the past year, presenting a pressing issue for both major candidates as the U.S. presidential election heats up. From 2022 to 2023, an additional 979,000 children were classified as living in poverty, raising the total number of impoverished children in the U.S. to nearly 10 million, or 9,962,000, according to the latest Census Bureau data.

These alarming figures were released as part of the Census Bureau’s Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), which accounts for a wider range of income sources, government assistance, and expenses than the traditional poverty metric. The SPM reflects a more comprehensive view of financial struggles in America. According to this measure, overall poverty rose from 12.4% in 2022 to 12.9% in 2023, while child poverty increased at an even faster rate, growing from 12.4% to 13.7% in just one year.

Although the increase in child poverty is concerning, the data also suggests that public policy measures have the potential to significantly alleviate this issue. Refundable tax credits, which provide payments to families even if they don’t owe any taxes, played a crucial role in lifting millions out of poverty in 2023. According to the Census Bureau’s report, these credits helped 6.4 million people escape poverty, including 3.4 million children. Among these, the refundable child tax credit proved to be particularly effective, pulling one-third of those individuals above the poverty line.

Steven Durlauf, a professor at The University of Chicago and director of the Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility at the Harris School of Public Policy, emphasized the importance of these credits. He stated, “The obvious answer to reducing poverty is to increase assistance to the poor. The effectiveness of such a policy is evident when one considers the effects of the Child Tax Credit.”

The refundable child tax credit, which was expanded under President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan, became a key policy tool in the fight against child poverty. In 2021, the credit was increased to $3,600 per child and made fully refundable, leading to a significant drop in child poverty rates that year. However, this expanded credit expired in December 2021, and over the course of the following year, more than 5 million children fell back into poverty. Despite widespread calls for its renewal, there has been little legislative action on the matter.

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the issue of child poverty and tax credits is gaining renewed attention. Vice President Kamala Harris, now a candidate for president, has put forward a proposal to restore the expanded child tax credit. Harris’ plan includes reintroducing the $3,600 credit for working families and providing an additional $6,000 tax credit for parents in their child’s first year of life.

“Billionaire-bought Donald Trump’s ‘plan’ for making child care more affordable is to impose a $3,900 tax hike on middle-class families,” said Joseph Costello, a spokesperson for Harris’ campaign, in a statement to Business Insider. “The American people deserve a president who will actually cut costs for them, like Vice President Harris’ plan to bring back a $3,600 Child Tax Credit for working families and an expanded $6,000 tax cut for families with newborn children.”

Meanwhile, JD Vance, Donald Trump’s running mate, has suggested a different approach. Vance floated the idea of a $5,000 child tax credit as part of their campaign’s platform. Republicans, however, have been critical of Harris’ policies, with RNC Spokesperson Anna Kelly commenting on the correlation between Harris’ tenure and the struggles families face.

“As this data shows, there is a terrible, direct correlation between Kamala Harris’ policies and parents struggling to keep their children housed and nourished,” Kelly remarked. “Families across the country know that they were better off four years ago, and they are ready to return to lower costs and commonsense policies under President Trump.”

As the election nears, economic concerns have taken center stage for voters. According to a recent Pew Research Center survey conducted between August 26 and September 2, 81% of voters indicated that the economy is a very important issue for their vote. For parents, in particular, the worsening child poverty rate may sharpen their focus on what each candidate plans to offer in terms of economic relief.

Adam Ruben, vice president of campaigns and political strategy at Economic Security Project, highlighted the urgency of restoring successful anti-poverty programs, saying, “The facts speak for themselves: millions of children are going to bed hungry and parents can’t access basic needs like groceries, gas, and prescription drugs, all because polarized politicians have failed to keep this historically effective program going.”

Despite the rise in child poverty, the broader economy still shows signs of strength, at least by some measures. The official poverty rate, which is based on more traditional metrics and excludes government assistance programs, dropped slightly from 11.5% in 2022 to 11.1% in 2023, signaling that the U.S. economy remains relatively strong overall.

“The official poverty rate ticking down tells us that the macroeconomy is strong,” said Josh Bivens, chief economist at the Economic Policy Institute. However, Bivens noted that the SPM’s increase suggests that the current system of anti-poverty programs is inadequate. “The fact that it is still 11.1% at near-full employment and the SPM rose tells us the U.S. system of anti-poverty programs needs strengthening. These programs keep tens of millions out of poverty, but if we expanded them, they’d bring tens of millions more out of poverty,” Bivens explained.

With child poverty becoming a central focus in political discussions, the debate around economic policies will likely intensify as the presidential campaigns progress. Both candidates’ approaches to addressing poverty, through child tax credits and other measures, are bound to play a major role in shaping voters’ opinions as they consider which leader can best tackle the financial struggles facing many American families. As the election nears, the solutions offered by the candidates will be critical, especially in the eyes of parents and those who have been hit hardest by rising poverty levels.

The rise in child poverty in the United States has emerged as a significant concern, one that could become a central issue for both presidential candidates as the 2024 election approaches. Data from the Census Bureau shows a troubling increase in the number of children living in poverty, signaling that more Americans are struggling to make ends meet.

Between 2022 and 2023, nearly one million more children fell into poverty, with 979,000 additional children under the age of 18 entering the poverty category. This brought the total number of children in poverty last year to 9,962,000. The figures are based on the Census Bureau’s Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), which offers a broader view of poverty than the traditional official poverty line by taking into account factors like government assistance and various expenses.

The overall Supplemental Poverty Measure showed a modest increase, rising from 12.4% in 2022 to 12.9% in 2023. However, child poverty rose at a faster rate, climbing from 12.4% to 13.7%. While these numbers paint a grim picture, they also highlight the impact that government policy can have on alleviating poverty, especially for children.

According to the Census Bureau report, refundable tax credits for parents played a crucial role in reducing child poverty. These credits, which are paid out even if a family doesn’t owe taxes, helped lift 3.4 million children — and 6.4 million people overall — out of poverty in 2023. Of these, the refundable Child Tax Credit was particularly impactful, pulling one-third of those Americans above the poverty line.

“The obvious answer to reducing poverty is to increase assistance to the poor,” said Steven Durlauf, professor at The University of Chicago and director of the Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility at the Harris School of Public Policy, in a statement to Business Insider. “The effectiveness of such a policy is evident when one considers the effects of the Child Tax Credit.”

The Child Tax Credit, which was expanded and made fully refundable to $3,600 per child under President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan in 2021, led to a sharp decline in child poverty that year. However, this expanded credit expired in December 2021, and without its continuation, over 5 million children slid back into poverty over the following year. Despite calls for renewing the expanded credit, no legislative action has been taken so far.

As the 2024 presidential election heats up, the Child Tax Credit has resurfaced as a major policy debate. Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed reinstating the enhanced Child Tax Credit as part of her campaign platform. Under her plan, lower- and middle-income parents would receive a $6,000 credit during their child’s first year of life. Harris is positioning her proposal as a direct contrast to the policies of former President Donald Trump.

“Billionaire-bought Donald Trump’s ‘plan’ for making child care more affordable is to impose a $3,900 tax hike on middle-class families,” Joseph Costello, a spokesperson for the Harris-Walz 2024 campaign, told Business Insider. “The American people deserve a president who will actually cut costs for them, like Vice President Harris’ plan to bring back a $3,600 Child Tax Credit for working families and an expanded $6,000 tax cut for families with newborn children.”

On the other side, JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, has suggested a $5,000 child tax credit as part of their platform. The Republican National Committee (RNC) has also been vocal in blaming Harris for the rising rates of child poverty. “As this data shows, there is a terrible, direct correlation between Kamala Harris’ policies and parents struggling to keep their children housed and nourished,” RNC spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement. “Families across the country know that they were better off four years ago, and they are ready to return to lower costs and commonsense policies under President Trump.”

With the economy already being a top concern for voters, the issue of child poverty is likely to weigh heavily on their minds as they decide who to support. According to a Pew Research Center survey conducted from August 26 to September 2, 81% of voters indicated that the economy is a very important issue for their vote. As child poverty continues to increase, the ability of candidates to address the needs of parents could become a critical factor in determining the outcome of the election.

“The facts speak for themselves: millions of children are going to bed hungry, and parents can’t access basic needs like groceries, gas, and prescription drugs, all because polarized politicians have failed to keep this historically effective program going,” said Adam Ruben, vice president of campaigns and political strategy at the Economic Security Project, in a statement to Business Insider.

The Census Bureau’s latest report also contained some positive news. The official poverty rate, which is a more narrow measure than the SPM, declined slightly, dropping from 11.5% in 2022 to 11.1% in 2023. While this decrease is encouraging, it doesn’t fully reflect the struggles many Americans continue to face.

“The official poverty rate ticking down tells us that the macroeconomy is strong,” said Josh Bivens, chief economist at the Economic Policy Institute. “The fact that it is still 11.1% at near-full employment and the SPM rose tells us the U.S. system of anti-poverty programs needs strengthening. These programs keep tens of millions out of poverty, but if we expanded them, they’d bring tens of millions more out of poverty.”

As child poverty remains a pressing issue in the United States, the role of government assistance programs like the Child Tax Credit will be critical in shaping the national conversation. Both presidential candidates are offering contrasting solutions to address the needs of parents and children, and their policies will likely resonate with millions of voters who are feeling the financial squeeze.

Whether the expanded Child Tax Credit is reinstated or a new policy is introduced, it is clear that the economic well-being of America’s children will be a defining issue in the 2024 presidential election. As the country grapples with rising poverty, both sides will need to present a compelling vision for how to lift families out of hardship and provide them with the resources they need to thrive.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are preparing for Tuesday’s presidential debate, employing vastly different approaches that highlight their contrasting political styles and visions for the nation. The vice president is taking a meticulous, focused approach, while Trump has opted for a more improvisational strategy, relying on instinct over extensive preparation.

Harris has chosen a historic hotel in downtown Pittsburgh as her base, where she can concentrate on crafting precise two-minute responses, in line with the debate’s rules. Aides have been working with her since Thursday, and her chosen location offers the additional benefit of allowing her to engage with voters in the crucial swing state.

Meanwhile, Trump, the Republican candidate, has largely dismissed traditional debate preparation. Instead of intensive rehearsals, he continues to attend campaign events, believing he will be prepared once he steps on stage at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia.

“You can go in with all the strategy you want, but you have to sort of feel it out as the debate’s taking place,” Trump remarked during a town hall hosted by Sean Hannity on Fox News. He reinforced his point by quoting former boxing champion Mike Tyson, saying, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.”

Harris is well aware of Trump’s potential to throw insults and misrepresent facts during the debate. However, her campaign sees value in remaining focused on issues that matter to middle-class Americans, such as economic growth and the nation’s future.

“We should be prepared for the fact that he is not burdened by telling the truth,” Harris noted in a radio interview with the Rickey Smiley Morning Show. “He tends to fight for himself, not for the American people, and I think that’s going to come out during the course of the debate.”

In her preparation, Harris has been working with Philippe Reines, a Democratic consultant and former aide to Hillary Clinton, who is standing in as Trump during her practice sessions. Harris has frequently criticized Trump’s approach, accusing him of following a “playbook” of falsehoods used against prominent Democrats like Clinton and Barack Obama.

Harris also claims that she understands Trump’s mindset on a psychological level, which has shaped her strategy for confronting him in the debate. During speeches such as her remarks at the Democratic National Convention, she has sought to position herself as a stronger leader than Trump, a direct challenge to his focus on projecting strength.

Trump’s debate against President Joe Biden on June 27 reshaped the election, ultimately leading Biden to step aside as the Democratic nominee and throw his support behind Harris. Both campaigns are aware that Tuesday’s debate could be a pivotal moment in what has become a closely contested race.

Trump, who has repeatedly questioned the impartiality of the media, is already criticizing the ABC News moderators set to oversee the debate. Nevertheless, he insists he will let Harris speak, just as he did during his debate with Biden. “I let him talk. I’m gonna let her talk,” Trump said during the Hannity town hall.

Despite the lack of formal preparation, Trump’s team insists he is ready for the debate. According to his aides, the strategy will be similar to his approach in the previous debate—no stand-ins, no mock debate setups, and no elaborate rehearsals.

Trump’s aides point to his frequent appearances in interviews, long press conferences, and podcasts as his method of staying sharp on the issues. These informal sessions, they argue, help keep him well-versed in the topics that could arise during the debate.

“We have meetings on it. We talk about it. But there’s not a lot you can do. You either know your subject or not. You either have good policy or not,” Trump said in a New Hampshire radio interview.

Ahead of the previous debate, Trump prepared with prominent Republicans like Senator Marco Rubio, who was then under consideration as a potential running mate. This time, his team has turned to Tulsi Gabbard, the former Democratic congresswoman and presidential candidate who is now backing Trump. Gabbard, who debated Harris during the 2020 Democratic primary, has been brought in to help Trump fine-tune his strategy. She also recently hosted a town hall with Trump in Wisconsin.

Trump’s campaign is intent on putting Harris on the defensive, portraying her as too liberal and connecting her policies to Biden’s economic record. They plan to highlight her shifting stances on issues such as her previous support for a fracking ban, which she has since renounced.

“We look forward to the opportunity for Americans to see her on stage, incapable of defending her policies and flip-flops,” said Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt. “The president’s proven he has a command of the issues, she does not.”

Harris’s team is betting that Trump will come across as too extreme during the debate. They hope to use the event to build on the momentum generated by her relatively brief campaign. Over the weekend, the campaign plans to hold 2,000 events across the country, aiming to reach more than one million voters.

“With hundreds of offices and thousands of staff across the battlegrounds, we are able to harness all the buzz around the debate and break through to hard-to-reach voters,” Dan Kanninen, the campaign’s battleground states director, said in a statement.

The debate is shaping up to be a critical moment in the election, with both candidates keen to capitalize on the opportunity to sway undecided voters. For Trump, the goal is to paint Harris as out of touch with middle America, while Harris aims to show she is a more credible leader with a vision for a stronger, more united country.

As both candidates gear up for the high-stakes debate, their divergent approaches reflect not only their individual personalities but also the broader ideological battle at the heart of this election. Harris, with her disciplined preparation and focus on policy, is preparing to meet Trump’s unorthodox, instinct-driven approach head-on. The outcome of their clash could have far-reaching implications for the future of American politics.

Analysts from Goldman Sachs have issued a warning that former President Donald Trump’s return to office and the implementation of his proposed economic policies could result in a decline in U.S. economic performance. In particular, they highlighted that Trump’s plans to impose stricter immigration policies and levy new tariffs on Chinese goods could significantly reduce the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Goldman Sachs’ forecast suggests that if Trump wins the 2024 election, the U.S. economy could experience a reduction in GDP growth by about half a percentage point in the latter half of 2025. However, the report also indicated that the economy could see some recovery the following year. “We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse,” Goldman analysts wrote in their analysis on Tuesday.

According to their predictions, Trump’s economic policies, particularly those focused on tariffs and immigration, would have a greater negative impact on growth than the potential benefits from any fiscal stimulus measures his administration might introduce. The Goldman analysts were cautious about how these proposals could affect broader economic conditions, particularly in relation to international trade and labor markets.

Trump’s proposal to increase tariffs on Chinese imports, aimed at reducing America’s trade deficit, was a key point in his economic agenda during his previous tenure. However, while such measures may aim to protect American industries, they also risk escalating trade tensions with China, one of the United States’ largest trading partners. These tariffs could lead to increased costs for U.S. consumers and businesses, which might slow down economic growth.

Moreover, the report raised concerns about Trump’s intention to tighten immigration laws. Restrictive immigration policies could limit the availability of labor, particularly in industries that heavily rely on immigrant workers, such as agriculture, construction, and healthcare. A shortage of workers in these sectors could disrupt supply chains and drive up wages, leading to inflationary pressures.

On the other hand, Goldman Sachs analysts provided a contrasting economic outlook in the event of a Harris presidency, particularly if Vice President Kamala Harris were to win the 2024 election with Democratic control of Congress. They predicted that her economic policies could lead to more favorable growth outcomes, with spending initiatives and tax credits acting as significant drivers of economic expansion.

Goldman analysts argued that Harris’s proposed policies would “more than offset” the negative impact of a higher corporate income tax rate, which she has suggested raising to 28 percent. The analysts believe that these spending initiatives would stimulate the economy by boosting investments in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, among other areas.

The corporate tax rate has been a contentious issue in U.S. politics. Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent, a move that was designed to spur business investment and economic growth. However, Harris, like President Biden, has called for the corporate tax rate to be increased to 28 percent to fund social programs and reduce the national deficit. Biden’s recent budget proposal also included this tax increase as a way to balance the government’s fiscal policies.

In a scenario where Harris wins the presidency but Congress remains divided between Republicans and Democrats, Goldman Sachs predicted a more neutral outcome for the economy. In this case, policy changes would likely be minimal, resulting in little to no effect on GDP growth. “Policy changes would be small and have a neutral effect on GDP,” the Goldman report stated.

The Harris-Walz campaign expressed optimism about their economic vision. Joseph Costello, a spokesperson for the Harris-Walz campaign, highlighted the positive impact their policies could have on middle-class families and small businesses. “Vice President Harris has a positive vision to strengthen the economy by building up the middle class, cutting taxes and lowering costs for working families and small businesses, and creating opportunities for all Americans to get ahead. On the economy, the choice could not be any more clear this November,” Costello said.

Despite the attention on Trump’s and Harris’s policies, the Trump campaign has yet to provide a response to Goldman Sachs’ predictions. The analysis of the economic outlook for a potential Trump presidency comes at a time when the country is already facing numerous challenges, including inflation, labor shortages, and fluctuating job market conditions.

In addition to concerns about the long-term economic policies of the next administration, Goldman Sachs also pointed out the potential impact of short-term monetary policy changes under the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates in September, marking the first rate cut in over five years. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, as of Wednesday, there is a 57 percent chance of a quarter-point rate cut.

A report from the U.S. Labor Department released on Wednesday, which showed weaker-than-expected job openings, has increased the likelihood of a more significant rate cut. However, most analysts believe that a quarter-point reduction remains the most probable scenario.

This news follows the release of the July jobs report, which revealed a slight increase in unemployment, rising from 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent. While this uptick is modest, it has raised concerns about the overall strength of the labor market. A slowdown in hiring, combined with ongoing inflationary pressures, could influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions in the coming months.

Further complicating the economic picture is the ongoing behavior of bond markets, where yield curves are beginning to show signs of renormalization. Yield curves, which plot the interest rates of bonds of varying maturities, have been inverted for the past two years. An inverted yield curve, where short-term bonds yield more than long-term bonds, is often seen as a signal of an impending recession. However, the bond market is now showing signs that this inversion may be coming to an end, with the 10-year Treasury yield starting to pay out more than the 2-year Treasury yield.

Despite these warning signs, a recession has yet to materialize, leaving some market analysts cautiously optimistic. Nevertheless, the outcome of the 2024 election could significantly shape the future economic landscape, as the next president will inherit an economy facing numerous challenges, from inflation to labor shortages to international trade tensions.

As the election approaches, voters will have a stark choice between two very different economic visions. While Trump’s policies focus on protecting American industries through tariffs and reducing immigration, Harris has positioned herself as a champion of the middle class, advocating for higher corporate taxes and increased government spending to stimulate economic growth.

Ultimately, the direction of the U.S. economy in the coming years will depend not only on the policies of the next president but also on global economic conditions and domestic market dynamics. As Goldman Sachs analysts have shown, the economic consequences of the 2024 election could be significant, making it a critical issue for both policymakers and voters alike.

Democratic presidential candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris, on September 4, made an impassioned plea for Americans to put an end to the “epidemic of gun violence” in the country. This call to action came in response to a mass shooting that took place at Apalachee High School in Winder, Georgia, which claimed the lives of four individuals. Harris used the occasion to once again push for stricter gun safety measures, including a ban on assault weapons, despite the staunch opposition from Republican leaders.

Speaking at a rally in New Hampshire, Harris expressed her deep sorrow over the shooting in Georgia, which added to the growing number of mass shootings across the nation in recent years. “This is just a senseless tragedy, on top of so many senseless tragedies,” Harris stated, reflecting the emotions of many Americans who have become all too familiar with the frequent news of gun violence.

The mass shooting at the Georgia high school was one of the hundreds of such incidents that have rocked the United States in 2024 alone. Harris pointed to this tragic reality, acknowledging the fears that parents across the country experience daily. “It’s just outrageous that every day in our country, in the United States of America, that parents send their children to school worried about whether or not their child will come home alive,” she said. Harris emphasized that while these mass shootings have become alarmingly common, they do not represent an inevitable reality for the country. “We have to end this epidemic of gun violence in our country once and for all. It doesn’t have to be this way,” she stressed.

In the wake of this tragedy, Harris renewed her call for stronger gun control measures, specifically advocating for a ban on assault weapons. Such a position has drawn fierce resistance from many Republicans who argue that it infringes on the rights of gun owners. Despite this opposition, Harris remains committed to her stance on gun control, echoing a sentiment she has shared throughout her political career. She highlighted the need for Congress to pass a new assault weapons ban, similar to the one that had been enacted in 1994 during President Joe Biden’s time as a senator. That law had expired in 2004, and efforts to reinstate it have repeatedly stalled in Congress since then.

Harris didn’t stop at the assault weapons ban. She also called for universal background checks, a policy that would ensure all firearm buyers undergo a criminal history review, regardless of where they purchase their guns. In addition, she advocated for the adoption of “red flag” laws, which would allow authorities to prevent individuals deemed dangerous from buying or possessing firearms. These red flag laws, known as state protective orders, aim to reduce gun violence by proactively identifying potential threats before they escalate into tragedy.

“It is a false choice to say you’re either in favor of the Second Amendment or you want to take everyone’s guns away,” Harris said, addressing a long-standing argument from gun rights advocates. Harris has repeatedly argued that common-sense gun control laws can coexist with the constitutional rights of Americans to bear arms. “I’m in favor of the Second Amendment, and I know we need reasonable gun safety laws in our country,” she added.

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, Harris’ main Republican opponent in the upcoming election, responded to the shooting with a message of condolence. Trump, who is widely recognized as a champion of gun rights by his party, expressed his sorrow over the incident. He took to social media to post, “Our hearts are with the victims,” and went on to describe the shooter as a “sick and deranged monster” responsible for taking the lives of “cherished children…far too soon.” Trump, however, stopped short of endorsing any new gun control measures, reflecting his strong alignment with Republican opposition to such regulations.

Gun control has long been a divisive issue in American politics, with advocates for stricter laws arguing that they are necessary to reduce the frequency of mass shootings and gun-related deaths, while opponents, particularly within the Republican Party, argue that such laws infringe on constitutional rights and fail to address the root causes of violence. This ideological clash has contributed to the political deadlock that has stymied legislative efforts to pass comprehensive gun reform at the federal level.

Harris, a former prosecutor and California Attorney General, has positioned herself as a vocal advocate for gun safety laws throughout her career. She has often pointed to her experience in law enforcement as evidence of her understanding of the complexities of the issue. Her support for gun control has been consistent, even as the debate over gun rights continues to polarize American voters. Harris’ background in law enforcement also lends credibility to her arguments for reasonable restrictions on firearms without compromising the constitutional rights of responsible gun owners.

As the presidential race heats up, gun violence is emerging as a key issue on the campaign trail. With hundreds of mass shootings taking place in the U.S. each year, the debate over how to address gun violence has gained renewed urgency. For Harris, this issue is a central part of her campaign platform, and she has promised to make gun safety reforms a priority if she is elected president.

Despite the broad public support for some gun control measures, such as background checks, the political landscape remains challenging for those advocating for stricter laws. The powerful gun rights lobby, particularly the National Rifle Association (NRA), continues to wield significant influence over Republican lawmakers, making it difficult for Democrats like Harris to advance their proposals.

Harris’ campaign message is clear: gun violence in America has reached an unacceptable level, and immediate action is necessary to prevent further tragedies. She believes that by implementing measures such as an assault weapons ban, universal background checks, and red flag laws, the country can significantly reduce the number of mass shootings and protect innocent lives.

In contrast, Trump and other Republican leaders argue that the focus should be on mental health and other factors contributing to violent behavior rather than restricting access to firearms. The division between these two perspectives is likely to remain a contentious point throughout the 2024 election cycle.

With the Georgia shooting fresh in the minds of many voters, Harris’ appeal for action on gun violence may resonate with those seeking solutions to an issue that has long plagued the nation. As the election draws closer, both candidates will likely continue to address the topic, albeit from very different viewpoints, making gun control a central issue in the race for the White House.

Former President Donald Trump is adjusting his campaign strategy, scaling back efforts in key states he had aggressively targeted just six weeks ago. This shift reflects how Vice President Kamala Harris’ rise in the polls has reshaped the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race.

Key Adjustments in Trump’s Strategy

The Trump campaign is pulling back from New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia. Instead, it is concentrating resources on Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, commonly referred to as the “Blue Wall” states. These states are critical for both Republicans and Democrats in securing the White House.

Additionally, Trump is refocusing on North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. These states were initially considered strongholds for Trump before Harris entered the race, making them much more competitive.

This stands in stark contrast to late July when Trump, fresh off the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, appeared to have a smooth path toward a potential victory. At that time, the Trump campaign was optimistic about its chances in Minnesota and Virginia, even claiming that both states were “prime opportunities to flip.”

However, the political landscape changed significantly when President Joe Biden exited the race, and Kamala Harris emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee, putting Trump on the defensive.

New Hampshire: A Shift in Focus

In New Hampshire, the Trump campaign is notably drawing down its operations. A volunteer within the campaign shared in an email that the state was no longer viewed as a battleground and urged staff to shift their focus to Pennsylvania.

The campaign has denied this claim, maintaining that their Manchester, New Hampshire office remains fully operational. However, this volunteer’s statement highlights the changes in the campaign’s strategic approach.

Minnesota: Mixed Signals

In Minnesota, the situation is more complex. Trump’s campaign initially saw the state as a prime battleground and planned an extensive ground game. Following the Republican convention, Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, held a rally in St. Cloud, Minnesota. At that time, the campaign was confident, announcing plans to open eight campaign offices and expand staff in the state.

Despite these bold claims, most of the roughly dozen campaign offices were established before Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, her running mate, joined the Democratic ticket. Since then, the campaign has hired only two full-time staff members—a state director and a senior advisor. However, a spokesperson for the Minnesota Republican Party confirmed that at least 14 full-time staffers are currently dedicated to Trump’s reelection efforts.

Minnesota Republican Party chair David Hann admitted that “the [state] party and Trump campaign have been working jointly with our local organizations to get those [offices] staffed up.” He emphasized that the campaign remains invested in the state and cited strong voter outreach efforts and volunteer engagement.

Virginia: Early Momentum Fades

In Virginia, Trump and Vance both held rallies earlier in the summer before Harris entered the race. Trump appeared in Chesapeake on June 28, just one day after his debate with Biden. Vance made his first solo appearance as the vice-presidential nominee in Radford, Virginia, on July 22, shortly after the GOP convention.

Although Trump’s campaign has continued to express optimism about winning Virginia, polls now show that Harris has overtaken Trump’s lead, securing a small but significant advantage in the state. “I truly believe we’re going to win the state,” Eric Trump said recently.

However, in the last six weeks, Trump has not held a rally in Virginia, and the campaign has seemingly ceased issuing memos touting internal polling data that once suggested the state was flippable. This quiet retreat from the state suggests that the campaign may be rethinking its earlier confidence.

Renewed Focus on the Blue Wall States

Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign has dramatically increased its spending on advertising in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, indicating the importance of these Blue Wall states to his strategy. The campaign has also ramped up spending in states that were once considered safe for Trump but are now becoming more competitive due to Harris’ growing momentum.

In North Carolina, for instance, both Trump’s campaign and MAGA Inc., a super PAC supporting him, have collectively spent over $16 million on ads, a sign of how seriously they are taking Harris’ growing appeal in the state.

What Trump’s Campaign is Saying

Trump’s campaign remains publicly optimistic despite these changes in focus. Rachel Reisner, Trump’s battleground states director, emphasized that the campaign continues to build a powerful ground operation. “Team Trump continues to build out the most robust and modern ground game ever,” Reisner told Axios.

Reisner also highlighted the campaign’s steady growth, stating, “Our team is only expanding—we have new staff, offices, and volunteers weekly—with more enthusiasm, energy, and support from people and states Democrats take for granted.”

While the campaign insists that it is continuing to expand its operations and volunteer base, the shift away from earlier targeted states such as New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia shows that the political landscape has changed. The rise of Kamala Harris as a competitive contender has forced Trump to refocus his efforts on crucial battleground states that will likely determine the outcome of the election.

Trump’s campaign strategy has undergone significant recalibration in response to Harris’ ascent in the polls. While the campaign was once confident in its chances of flipping traditionally Democratic states, the current focus is now on fortifying support in key battleground states where Harris’ competitiveness has shifted the dynamics. With both campaigns pouring resources into the Blue Wall and other critical states, the battle for the presidency is far from settled.

In a recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, Democrat Kamala Harris has taken a notable lead over Republican Donald Trump, showing a 48%-43% advantage. This represents an eight-point turnaround from late June, when Trump led President Joe Biden by nearly four points in the same survey.

The shift in the race is largely attributed to significant changes in key demographic groups that have traditionally been vital for Democrats. Harris’s lead has been notably influenced by shifts among Hispanic, Black, and young voters. For instance, among those with annual incomes under $20,000, Trump’s previous three-point lead over Biden has transformed into a 23-point lead for Harris over Trump as of August.

This development marks a significant achievement for Harris, who has managed to secure a lead over Trump, something Biden had struggled to accomplish this year. Despite the small margin, Harris’s advantage reflects a shift in momentum, particularly following the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which had a rallying effect on party supporters.

The poll, conducted among 1,000 likely voters via landline and cellphone from Sunday to Wednesday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The focus on likely voters, as opposed to registered voters in previous polls, marks a shift in the survey’s methodology as the election approaches.

The detailed results, without rounding, show Harris with an edge closer to four points rather than five, at 47.6%-43.3%.

The success of Harris’s campaign strategies, particularly the targeted appeals made at the Democratic convention, is evident. David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, noted, “With the ‘Brat Summer’ of Kamala Harris emojis winding down, young people, persons of color, and low-income households have swung dramatically toward the vice president. These same demographics were emphasized and woven together by numerous speakers at the convention.”

Significant changes since June include:

– Voters aged 18 to 34 have shifted from supporting Trump by 11 points to supporting Harris by 13 points, now favoring her 49%-36%.

– Hispanic voters, a group that the Republican campaign has been actively trying to engage, have shifted from supporting Trump by two points to supporting Harris by 16 points, with a current split of 53%-37%.

– Black voters, who have traditionally been a strong Democratic base, have moved from supporting Biden by 47 points to supporting Harris by 64 points, now showing 76%-12% in her favor.

– Harris has gained support among lower-income voters, who now back her 58%-35%. She has emphasized her commitment to an “opportunity economy” that focuses on affordable housing and addressing food price gouging, although she has not yet provided detailed policy plans.

The election dynamic has evolved as Harris stands as the first woman of color and the first person of South Asian descent nominated for president by a major party. At 59, she is considerably younger than Trump, who is 78, and Biden, who is 81.

Amy Hendrix, a 46-year-old independent voter from Fort Worth, Texas, expressed her enthusiasm, saying, “I think people are cautiously optimistic that they’re going to have a lot better chance with Harris than they would have had with Biden going head-to-head with Trump. I’m very excited to vote for a woman, and that’s just the truth.”

However, not all reactions have been positive. Jason Streem, a 46-year-old dentist from the Cleveland suburbs who supports Trump, criticized the manner in which Harris became the nominee. He remarked, “She was never part of the running process. She never received the primary votes.” He described the nomination process as “the most undemocratic way of picking a nominee.”

The rapid shift in the Democratic nomination occurred after Biden’s decision to step back from his reelection bid just over a month ago, influenced by party leaders and donors concerned about his chances of winning. This unexpected move paved the way for Harris’s swift nomination.

In the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll, Biden’s support this year never exceeded 37.5%, and he trailed Trump by as little as half a percentage point in the spring, to nearly four points after the Biden-Trump debate in early summer.

This poll is the first since independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew from the race and endorsed Trump. Current independent candidate Cornel West stands at 2%, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver each hold 1%. When asked about their second choice among third-party supporters, 32% preferred Harris, 24% chose West, and 15% opted for Trump.

A recent poll released on Tuesday reveals that more Americans believe Vice President Kamala Harris has a better chance of winning the White House in November compared to former President Donald Trump. According to the Yahoo News/YouGov survey, 39 percent of respondents think Harris “has the best chance of winning” the election, which is now only 69 days away. In contrast, 36 percent believe Trump has the better chance of securing victory in the upcoming fall election.

Harris’s elevation to the top of the Democratic presidential ticket came after President Joe Biden stepped aside and endorsed her last month. This shift has generated significant enthusiasm and energy within the Democratic Party, largely due to Harris’s perceived stronger likelihood of winning this year’s election compared to Biden.

However, the survey also revealed that 25 percent of participants are uncertain about whether Harris or Trump will win the presidency in the forthcoming election.

When asked about the qualifications of the party nominees for serving in the Oval Office, 50 percent of respondents indicated they believe Harris is fit for the role. In comparison, 47 percent expressed the same view about Trump. The poll also showed that 37 percent believe Harris is not fit for the presidency, while 47 percent hold the same opinion about Trump. Additionally, 22 percent of respondents were unsure about Harris’s fitness for office, whereas 8 percent were unsure about Trump’s suitability.

In an average of national polls conducted by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, Harris holds a 4-point lead over Trump, with the vice president receiving 49.5 percent support. The upcoming election is expected to be competitive as Trump and Harris are scheduled to face off in a debate hosted by ABC News in a few weeks. Although Trump has recently raised concerns about his participation in the debate, he stated on Tuesday that he had “reached an agreement” with what is presumed to be Harris’s campaign.

The Yahoo News/YouGov poll was carried out from August 22 to August 26, involving 1,788 participants, and has a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.

Vice President Kamala Harris expressed deep emotion after seeing a photo of her young grandniece, in pigtails, watching her speak at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last week. Although Harris hasn’t made it a focus, she stated her intention to run for president to represent “all Americans,” the image symbolized the potential historic nature of her candidacy. “It’s very humbling. Very humbling in many ways,” she said in an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash.

During this interview, the first she gave alongside her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Walz also mentioned his son Gus’s emotional reaction to his convention speech. “Our politics can be better. It can be different. We can show some of these things, and we can have families involved in this,” Walz said. He added, “I hope people felt that out there, and I hope that they hugged their kids a little tighter because you never know. Life can be kind of hard.”

Harris discussed how her positions on several issues, including fracking and border security, have evolved since her initial presidential run in 2019. She also offered a glimpse into how she plans to explain these changes to voters during her debate with former President Donald Trump and as the campaign continues. “My values have not changed,” she emphasized.

She also aimed to frame the 2024 race as an opportunity for the American people to choose “a new way forward,” moving beyond a political era dominated by Trump. Harris’ campaign has been described as one of optimism, contrasting with the former president’s darker rhetoric that often portrays political opponents, the media, and others as adversaries. Harris and Trump are both preparing for their first debate on September 10, to be aired on ABC.

Clarifying Position on Fracking

In 2019, Harris, as a presidential candidate, opposed fracking, a stance that could have negatively affected her in Pennsylvania, where fracking is a significant employer. Now, she says she supports it. “As vice president, I did not ban fracking. As president, I will not ban fracking,” Harris stated. Fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, is a method of extracting natural gas from shale rock. While progressives have opposed fracking due to environmental concerns, the Inflation Reduction Act, a $750 billion bill focused on health care, taxes, and climate change, has led to both an expansion of fracking and growth in clean energy efforts in the U.S. Harris clarified that she had already revised her stance on fracking by 2020, stating during the vice-presidential debate that Biden “will not end fracking.”

“I have not changed that position, nor will I going forward,” she reiterated. Harris pointed to the Biden administration’s actions to foster growth in clean energy, saying, “What I have seen is that we can grow and we can increase a thriving clean energy economy without banning fracking.”

Consideration of a Republican in the Cabinet

When asked if she would appoint a Republican to her Cabinet, Harris responded, “Yes, I would.” However, she did not provide specific names or potential roles. “No one in particular,” she noted. “We have 68 days to go in this election, so I’m not putting the cart before the horse. But I would.” Harris has emphasized the importance of diverse opinions in decision-making processes. “I have spent my career inviting diversity of opinion,” she explained, suggesting it could benefit the American public to have a Republican in her Cabinet.

Ignoring Trump’s Identity Politics

Harris mostly avoided addressing Donald Trump’s remarks about her racial and gender identity. Trump recently questioned her racial identity at a conference, insinuating that she had previously identified as South Asian but “happened to turn Black” for political reasons. Harris dismissed this, calling it part of Trump’s “same old tired playbook.” When pressed for further comment, she simply said, “Next question, please,” indicating her campaign’s strategy to avoid engaging with such attacks.

A Pivotal Phone Call

On the morning of July 21, Vice President Harris was at home making breakfast for visiting relatives and doing a puzzle with her nieces when she received a phone call from President Joe Biden. “It was Joe Biden, and he told me what he had decided to do,” Harris said. The call signaled Biden’s decision to end his re-election bid and endorse Harris to lead the Democratic ticket. Harris was initially more concerned about the impact on Biden, who had faced calls for resignation following a challenging debate performance. “I asked him, ‘Are you sure?’ and he said ‘Yes,’” Harris recalled.

Harris praised Biden’s presidency as “transformative” and described his decision to withdraw as reflective of his character, depicting him as “quite selfless and puts the American people first.” She also defended the administration’s achievements, including investments in infrastructure and efforts to reduce drug costs and strengthen international alliances. “I am so proud to have served as Vice President to Joe Biden,” she added.

Border Security and Criticism of Trump

Harris responded to Trump’s critiques of the Biden administration’s border policies by attributing much of the blame to Trump. She highlighted his opposition to a bipartisan border security bill that would have added 1,500 agents to the border. “He told his folks in Congress, don’t put it forward. He killed the bill — a border security bill,” she said. Harris vowed that if elected president, she would ensure such a bill reached her desk and would sign it. She also clarified her stance against decriminalizing illegal border crossings, a reversal from her 2019 position, stating, “We have laws that have to be followed and enforced that deal with people who cross our border illegally, and there should be consequences.”

Walz Reflects on Past Mistakes

Governor Walz also addressed his past misstatements, including a 2018 video where he inaccurately referenced carrying “weapons of war” during his military service, despite never being in a combat zone. He admitted to misspeaking, adding, “My wife, the English teacher, told me my grammar’s not always correct.” He also corrected a claim about using in vitro fertilization, clarifying it was another form of fertility treatment. “I certainly own my mistakes when I make them,” he stated.

Walz emphasized his commitment to civility, contrasting his approach with that of his Republican opponent, Ohio Senator JD Vance, who had made inflammatory comments about Harris. Walz stated he would not insult Republicans, highlighting the contrasting tones of their campaigns as they prepare for their October 1 debate hosted by CBS.

Looking Beyond the Trump Era

Harris acknowledged questions about why her proposed policies haven’t been implemented during her time as vice president, explaining that she was “talking about an era that started about a decade ago,” referring to Trump’s emergence in politics. She argued that leadership should be about uplifting people, not “who you beat down.” Harris concluded, “That’s what’s at stake, as much as any other detail that we could discuss, in this election.”

At the Democratic National Convention this week, party members confidently predicted that Kamala Harris would emerge victorious against Donald Trump. They hailed her as a historic leader, a beacon of hope, and referred to her as “the president of joy.” Amid this overwhelming optimism, however, former First Lady Michelle Obama issued a sobering caution: “No matter how good we feel tonight or tomorrow or the next day, this is going to be an uphill battle.” Her warning was soon overshadowed by the excitement of the 17,000 attendees at the convention in Chicago, but it underscored a pressing reality for Harris: the real challenge is only beginning.

More than a month after President Joe Biden endorsed her, Harris has yet to present detailed plans on how she would tackle the nation’s most significant issues, such as immigration, crime, and climate change. She has not yet sat down for a comprehensive media interview to address tough questions about her past policy shifts, leadership style, and the scrutiny surrounding her race and gender as a historic candidate. As John Anzalone, a pollster for the last three Democratic presidential nominees, pointed out, “We can’t put our heads in the sand. She’s a Black woman. The bar is going to be higher for everything. And guess what? That means, even mistakes. Mistakes are going to be magnified.”

Harris’ supporters acknowledge that she remains largely undefined to many voters, having spent much of the past four years in Biden’s shadow. This relative anonymity presents both opportunities and risks. David Axelrod, a former chief strategist for President Barack Obama, noted, “The bad thing about vice presidents is that nobody knows who you are. The good thing about vice presidents is nobody knows who you are.”

With just over two weeks to prepare for her only scheduled presidential debate against Trump on September 10, which could significantly influence the race’s trajectory, Harris’ team feels no urgency to release a comprehensive policy platform or engage in media interviews that might disrupt the positive momentum her campaign has generated. So far, her advisers have positioned her policy agenda as an extension of Biden’s first-term accomplishments, especially in economic matters, though some specifics may differ.

For instance, Harris has abandoned her opposition to fracking and her previous support for Medicare for All, key positions in her 2019 presidential run. Her aides argue that while her values remain consistent, she has adopted more centrist policies out of practicality. “She’s going to work to support and lead pragmatic common sense policies that are going to directly relate to improving the lives of Americans,” said Brian Nelson, a senior campaign policy adviser.

Meanwhile, Harris’ allies anticipate that Trump will eventually settle on an effective line of attack against her. In recent days, he has employed a broad-based strategy, targeting her racial identity, demeanor, record as vice president, and perceived liberalism. “He’ll figure out how to get a message and land a political punch,” said Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. “What you’ve seen with her is an ability to absorb the criticism and just keep going. And that is a really, really important political trait.”

However, some acknowledge that as Election Day approaches, the scrutiny on Harris will intensify. Sarah Longwell, a leader of Republican Voters Against Trump, commented, “People ask this question: Will people vote for a Black woman? And I actually think that’s always the wrong question. I think the question is, Will they vote for Kamala Harris, with her particular set of both skills and baggage? The biggest problem for Kamala Harris is that people view her as too progressive, and that’s going to hurt her with these swing voters.”

Polls indicate that public perception of Harris has shifted since Biden withdrew and she became the presumptive nominee. In a June AP-NORC poll, only 39% of Americans viewed her favorably, with 12% unsure. By August, those figures had improved to 48% favorable, with only 6% expressing uncertainty. Additionally, 27% of respondents reported a “very” favorable opinion, up from 14% in June. This rapid change suggests that public opinion could shift again as voters learn more about Harris.

This shift also suggests that Harris’ current surge might be less about her candidacy and more about Democrats’ relief over Biden stepping aside. Before he withdrew, nearly two-thirds of Democrats expressed opposition to another Biden run, with about half stating they would be dissatisfied if he were the nominee. Quentin Wathum-Ocama, president of Young Democrats of America, expressed mixed feelings of relief and excitement over Harris. “Do people know her? People are aware of her,” he said. “I can be excited, but I still want more.”

However, he may have to wait, as Harris has yet to release comprehensive policy details. Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, noted that past Democratic efforts to provide detailed policy plans did not resonate with voters. “We used to do 10-point plans; they weren’t even satisfied with five-point plans,” Weingarten said. “I think that that’s not where Americans are.”

So far, Harris has provided a glimpse of her policy intentions. She has proposed federal limits on price increases for food producers and grocers, pledged to make permanent a $3,600 per child tax credit for eligible families, and introduced a new $6,000 tax credit for families with newborns. Additionally, she plans to build three million new housing units over four years and expand down payment assistance for renters. She also wants to accelerate a Biden initiative to allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices, aiming to reduce costs by 40% to 80% by 2026.

Trump’s campaign has focused on the lack of specifics in Harris’ platform and her avoidance of media interviews. At a recent rally in Asheboro, North Carolina, Jerry Zimmerman, a Trump supporter, acknowledged the challenge of defeating Harris, saying, “If they can prove that everything went fair, I’ll be cool with it. I think a lot of people will be cool with the outcome.”

With the election timeline compressed, both candidates have little time to pivot dramatically. Early voting in key states like Pennsylvania begins on September 16, with more states following shortly after. Both campaigns have already committed substantial resources to television ads, with Democrats planning to spend over $270 million compared to the Republicans’ $120 million.

Michelle Obama warned that mistakes are inevitable and urged Democrats to stay focused on defeating Trump. “The minute something goes wrong, the minute a lie takes hold, folks, we cannot start wringing our hands,” she said. “We cannot get a Goldilocks complex about whether everything is just right. And we cannot indulge our anxieties about whether this country will elect someone like Kamala, instead of doing everything we can to get someone like Kamala elected.”

Democrats are placing their bets on the belief that American voters are eager to move beyond the divisive era shaped by former President Donald Trump. At the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago, the party showcased a strategy centered on “joy,” with Vice President Kamala Harris being positioned as the candidate to lead the nation into a more hopeful future.

Former President Bill Clinton emphasized this theme by declaring that Harris brings “sheer joy” to the 2024 presidential race. Meanwhile, Oprah Winfrey encouraged the nation to “choose joy.” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg further contrasted Trump’s “darkness” with the more uplifting political approach offered by Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, stating, “it just feels better to be part of.”

This messaging shift highlights how quickly the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race have changed since President Joe Biden exited the race last month. While Biden’s campaign was heavily focused on the dangers Trump posed to democracy, Harris has taken those concerns and wrapped them in a more forward-looking narrative centered on themes of freedom and joy. The convention was designed to reflect this new tone, complete with a party-like atmosphere.

The evening’s entertainment featured performances by John Legend, drummer Sheila E., and Stevie Wonder, who delivered a rousing rendition of “Higher Ground.” The celebratory mood extended to the appearance of alumni from Mankato West High School’s football team, which had previously won a state championship under Walz’s guidance as an assistant coach. They appeared on stage in their old jerseys as a pep band played the school’s fight song. “Thank you for bringing the joy to this fight,” Walz told the audience.

Six Key Moments from the DNC’s Third Night

1. Tim Walz, the ‘Happy Warrior,’ Makes His Case

Governor Tim Walz, relatively new to the national stage, used his moment to introduce himself as more than just a politician. Before becoming Harris’s running mate, Walz had never delivered a speech to a national audience, let alone used a teleprompter. Yet, instead of leaning on his political credentials as a two-term governor and former congressman, he presented himself as a high school teacher, football coach, hunter, and neighbor.

Walz used his speech to argue that Democrats are the true champions of freedom. “In Minnesota, we respect our neighbors and the choices they make. Even if we wouldn’t make the same choices ourselves, we’ve got a golden rule: Mind your own damn business,” Walz said. He linked this philosophy to Harris’s policy positions on health care, abortion rights, and homeownership, speaking in tones reminiscent of the late Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone.

“When we Democrats talk about freedom, we mean the freedom to make a better life for yourself and the people you love,” he said. “Freedom to make your own health care decisions. And yeah, your kids’ freedom to go to school without worrying about being shot dead in the hall.”

The governor’s heartfelt address also touched on personal struggles, particularly the fertility challenges he and his wife, Gwen, faced. He emotionally addressed his family, saying, “Hope, Gus, and Gwen, you are my entire world, and I love you.” His son Gus stood up with tears in his eyes, applauding his father.

Walz concluded his speech with a call to action, urging Democrats to give their all in the remaining 76 days of the campaign, saying, “We’re gonna leave it on the field.” He exited the stage to Neil Young’s “Rockin’ in the Free World,” a song that Harris’s campaign received special permission to use, marking a sharp contrast to Young’s previous legal battle to prevent Trump from using it.

2. Oprah Winfrey Ties Harris to a Legacy of Progress

Oprah Winfrey took the stage to draw a historical connection between Harris and previous generations of African American trailblazers, portraying the vice president as representing “the best of America.” Winfrey recounted the story of Tessie Prevost, who passed away last month, and three other Black girls who, at the age of six, bravely began desegregating New Orleans elementary schools in 1960.

Winfrey noted that the “New Orleans Four” paved the way for Harris, who nine years later became part of the second class to integrate public schools in Berkeley, California. Now, Winfrey declared, Harris is on the cusp of making history.

“Soon and very soon, we’re going to be teaching our daughters and sons about how this child of an Indian mother and a Jamaican father, two idealistic and energetic immigrants… grew up to become the 47th president of the United States,” Winfrey said, to a roaring crowd chanting “U-S-A.” She also addressed Ohio Senator JD Vance’s derogatory remarks about childless women, making a powerful statement about the shared humanity of all Americans.

3. Bill Clinton’s Stark Choice: ‘For the People’ or ‘Me, Myself, and I’

Former President Bill Clinton framed the election as a choice between Harris, who is “for the people,” and Trump, who he described as being solely about “me, myself, and I.” Clinton, whose influence within the party has diminished over the years, still holds a unique appeal to White working-class voters, making his appearances at conventions particularly noteworthy.

Clinton discussed Harris’s policies on housing, health care, and job growth, while also painting Trump as a self-centered figure. He quipped, “So the next time you hear him, don’t count the lies. Count the I’s.” This line drew attention to Trump’s focus on his grievances, vendettas, and conspiracy theories.

4. A Generational Shift in the Democratic Party

The convention in Chicago also symbolized a generational shift within the Democratic Party. While the primary goal was to build momentum for Harris, the event also highlighted the passing of the torch from seasoned figures like Biden, Clinton, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to newer leaders.

Bill Clinton, aware of his own mortality, reminded the crowd of his long history with the Democratic National Convention and urged voters to support Harris, saying, “If you vote for this team… you’ll be proud of it for the rest of your life. Your children will be proud of it. Your grandchildren will be proud of it.”

5. The Struggles of Hostage Families

In a poignant moment, Rachel Goldberg-Polin, mother of a hostage taken by Hamas, expressed the agony that she and her husband, Jon Polin, have endured. She thanked the Biden-Harris administration for their support, while also acknowledging the suffering on all sides of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

6. Defending Democracy: Trump Betrayed Us

Even as Harris reframed the Democratic message, the convention retained a strong focus on defending democracy. Aquilino Gonell, a former U.S. Capitol Police sergeant, accused Trump of betraying the officers who defended the Capitol on January 6, 2021. His emotional testimony was a reminder of the stakes in the upcoming election, underscoring the enduring relevance of the fight to preserve democratic values.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 election campaign has garnered significant financial support, amassing an unprecedented $500 million since she officially became the Democratic presidential candidate, according to sources familiar with the matter. This substantial fundraising achievement reflects the strong enthusiasm among donors as the November 5 election approaches.

Four individuals closely involved with the fundraising efforts disclosed to Reuters that Harris’s campaign had successfully accumulated this considerable sum in the four weeks following her entry into the race on July 21. The rapid inflow of campaign funds highlights the critical role that financial resources play in modern elections, particularly in financing advertising and voter mobilization initiatives aimed at swaying undecided voters.

Harris’s decision to enter the presidential race came after President Joe Biden stepped down from the top of the Democratic ticket, a move that reignited a wave of funding that had largely dried up following Biden’s challenging debate performance against Republican contender Donald Trump. In the initial week of her campaign, Harris raised an impressive $200 million, quickly securing the support needed to become the party’s nominee.

In total, Harris’s team raised $310 million in July alone, bringing the combined fundraising total for her and Biden, before he exited the race, to over $1 billion. This rapid accumulation of funds marks the quickest achievement of such a significant fundraising milestone in U.S. political history, according to the Harris campaign.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump’s campaign reported raising $138.7 million in July, with cash reserves amounting to $327 million. Trump’s campaign had previously outpaced Biden’s in fundraising during the second quarter of the year.

Despite the competition, enthusiasm for Harris has remained strong. Her campaign reported having $377 million in cash on hand as of July, with the momentum continuing into August. This ongoing support is evident not only from large donors but also from small-dollar contributors, as thousands of people have been attending her rallies in key swing states across the nation.

To put this fundraising success in perspective, Biden’s campaign committee raised a total of $1.04 billion during the 2020 election cycle, a figure that swelled to $1.62 billion when combined with contributions from outside groups, as reported by OpenSecrets, a watchdog organization that tracks money in politics.

At the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Harris expressed her appreciation for Biden’s leadership, while the president himself took the opportunity to highlight his record and urge voters to support Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, in the upcoming election.

Former President Barack Obama, a significant figure in Democratic fundraising, also played a role in bolstering Harris’s campaign. Obama delivered a speech at the convention on August 20, while Harris continued her efforts to energize voters in nearby Wisconsin. Obama has already participated in two major fundraisers with Biden and has offered his assistance to Harris in organizing additional fundraising events.

Throughout her campaign, Harris has consistently referred to herself as the underdog in the race against Trump, a tactic intended to prevent complacency among her supporters and maintain a high level of engagement from both her voter base and her donors.

With less than three months remaining until Election Day, Harris’s fundraising prowess and strong donor enthusiasm place her campaign in a formidable position as she continues to rally support across the country in her bid to become the next President of the United States.

The Democratic National Convention on Tuesday night was dominated by the Obamas, highlighting an extraordinary reality: the party’s two most compelling orators are married to each other. The only debate among Democrats seemed to be which of the two delivered the more impactful speech.

Former President Barack Obama aimed to elevate the conversation, drawing on former President Lincoln’s call for Americans to summon the “better angels” of their nature, hoping for a future where the nation could transcend its current turmoil. Meanwhile, former First Lady Michelle Obama delivered a more impassioned and confrontational address, directing several pointed critiques at former President Trump, albeit without frequently mentioning his name. She urged Democrats to take decisive action to prevent his reelection.

The Obamas overshadowed other speakers, including second gentleman Douglas Emhoff, who didn’t attempt to compete. Here are the five major takeaways from the evening:

Barack Obama Calls for Unity Amid Division

Twenty years ago, at the Democratic National Convention in Boston, a state senator gained national attention with a speech arguing that the differences between “blue” and “red” America were overstated, particularly by those who benefit from such division. That state senator was Barack Obama, who would be elected to the U.S. Senate later that year and to the White House—becoming the nation’s first Black president—just four years later.

On Tuesday night, Obama’s address echoed similar themes but was tempered by experience, marked by more battles, and acutely aware of the deepening divisions in the country. “We live in a time of such confusion and rancor,” Obama said, “with a culture that puts a premium on things that don’t last—money, fame, status, likes.” However, he maintained that “away from all the noise, the ties that bind us together” still endure.

Obama’s political message was that Democrats must articulate their belief in those ties to win in November. He also emphasized the importance of freedom, aligning with Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign theme. Obama defined freedom broadly, including same-sex marriage, religious freedom, and environmental rights. He also criticized Trump, mocking his “weird obsession with crowd size” and his “whining about his problems.”

Obama praised President Joe Biden as a leader who “defended democracy at a time of great danger.” Ultimately, the speech was a display of the soaring rhetoric that propelled Obama to the presidency, still thrilling his party as much as it ever did.

Michelle Obama’s Fiery Address

Michelle Obama’s speech was even more impassioned than her husband’s, targeting Trump repeatedly while refraining from naming him until later in her address. She criticized the advantages of the wealthy and privileged, making it clear that Trump was her target. “Most of us will never be afforded the grace of failing forward,” she stated, adding that not everyone has “an escalator waiting to take us to the top”—a clear reference to Trump’s famous descent down the escalator in Trump Tower in 2015 to announce his first presidential run.

The crowd at the United Center in Chicago, Michelle Obama’s hometown, erupted with applause at her pointed reference to “the affirmative action of generational wealth.” This was a jab at both Trump’s background as the son of a wealthy developer and Republican criticisms of programs designed to support marginalized communities, especially Black communities.

Obama drew parallels between herself and Harris, portraying them as two women of color from modest backgrounds who had to fight for their achievements, which in turn gave them a greater capacity for empathy. “Kamala knows, like we do, that regardless of where you come from, what you look like, who you love, how you worship, or what’s in your bank account, we all deserve the opportunity to build a decent life. All of our contributions deserve to be accepted and valued,” she said.

She also cautioned Democrats to prepare for the kind of attacks on Harris that she and her husband had previously faced. At the same time, Obama warned that the stakes in the election were too high for voters to approach it with a “Goldilocks complex about whether everything is just right.”

Harris as the People’s Champion, Trump as Self-Serving

The overarching theme of the convention was clear: Harris is a champion of the middle class, while Trump is only interested in serving himself. The convention’s purpose was not just to energize the base but also to craft a compelling campaign message. Democrats aimed to portray Harris as a forward-thinking leader dedicated to the middle class, in contrast to Trump’s self-serving nature.

Republicans, of course, reject this narrative, arguing that Democrats are too liberal for the average American. However, nearly every speech on Tuesday reinforced the central theme of Harris as a leader for the people.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) highlighted this when he spoke of working with Harris in the Senate, saying, “I saw a leader who was fearless, who stood up for middle-class families like the one she was raised in.” Whether the electorate will accept this portrayal remains to be seen, but Democrats are united in their message.

Emhoff’s Personal Touch

Second gentleman Douglas Emhoff, aware that he couldn’t match the grand rhetoric of the Obamas, opted for a more personal approach. He shared anecdotes about his early relationship with Harris, including leaving a “rambling” message on her voicemail. Emhoff’s self-deprecating humor was evident when he quipped that “my mother is the only person in the whole world who thinks Kamala is the lucky one for marrying me.”

Emhoff presented himself as an everyman, still connected to his high school friends and somewhat awed by his current position. While his speech may not have swayed many opinions, it effectively served its purpose.

Biden’s Quick Fade from the Spotlight

One of the most striking aspects of the second day of the convention was how rapidly President Biden seemed to recede from prominence. While Barack Obama praised Biden, Michelle Obama didn’t mention him at all. The party’s relief in rallying around Harris was palpable.

Biden had already left Chicago for California, a move that, while perhaps strategic, also highlighted his swift marginalization. The convention underscored the party’s shift of focus toward Harris, signaling a new chapter in Democratic leadership.

It was not the speech Joe Biden had envisioned for this year, especially under the current circumstances. However, given his experiences with tragedy and adversity, the president understands how swiftly fortunes can shift.

At the Democratic National Convention’s opening night in Chicago, Biden delivered a passionate defense of his presidency, revisiting many themes from his 2020 campaign and his more recent bid before his mid-July withdrawal following a poor debate performance.

“Like many of you, I gave my heart and soul to this nation,” Biden said towards the end of his nearly hour-long speech, which was met with enthusiastic shouts of “Thank you, Joe.”

Introduced by his daughter Ashley and his wife, Jill, Biden took the stage with visible emotion. Jill described witnessing Biden’s deep reflection as he decided to withdraw from the presidential race, and Biden dabbed at his eyes with a tissue, touched his heart, and straightened up at the lectern, smiling broadly as the crowd cheered.

His address reflected on his historical significance and also praised his vice president, whom he hopes will succeed him. “Selecting Kamala was the very first decision I made when I became our nominee and it’s the best decision I made my whole career,” Biden remarked. “She’s tough, she’s experienced, and she has enormous integrity.”

While Biden did not explicitly mention passing the torch to a new generation, the sentiment was evident. Following his remarks, Vice President Kamala Harris and her husband, Doug Emhoff, joined Biden and Jill on stage. Harris mouthed “I love you” to Biden after their embrace.

Although Biden’s focus was on Harris, acknowledging that her performance against Donald Trump in the upcoming election could shape how history and his party view him, earlier speakers paid tribute to the current president.

The evening began with a surprise appearance by Harris, who received a standing ovation as she took the stage. “Joe, thank you for your historic leadership and for your lifetime of service to our nation and for all you continue to do,” she said. “We are forever grateful to you.”

Delaware Senator Chris Coons, a close ally of Biden, also praised the president. “I’ve never known a more compassionate man than Joe Biden,” Coons said. “I’ve never known a man who has taken from his own loss and his own faith and delivered so much for the future of so many others.”

Hillary Clinton, who appeared earlier in the evening, lauded Biden for restoring “dignity, decency and competence” to the White House. She received a long ovation and highlighted that while she did not break the “highest, hardest glass ceiling” by becoming the first woman president, “on the other side of that glass ceiling is Kamala Harris taking the oath of office.”

The reception Biden received from the packed Democratic convention hall was vibrant. The Chicago Democrats had been jubilant all day, but the applause for Biden also seemed to acknowledge his reluctant decision to step aside, alongside honoring his lengthy political career that began in 1972 when he was first elected to Congress at 29.

Former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton are set to address the convention later this week. Unlike them, Biden will not have the opportunity to run for re-election. Instead, he used his speech to define and defend his legacy as a one-term president, a speech that may stand as his final address to a large American audience unless a significant national event occurs in the next five months.

At the speech’s conclusion, Biden quoted a line from the song “American Anthem.” “Let me know in my heart when my days are through, that America, America, I gave my best to you,” he said, eliciting another round of applause from the audience.

Eight years ago, Biden chose not to run for president in favor of Hillary Clinton, partly due to pressure from Obama. Four years ago, although he won the nomination, the Covid pandemic prevented him from enjoying the full Democratic convention experience with a celebratory balloon drop.

This convention marked one of Biden’s closest experiences to a traditional Democratic convention moment in the spotlight. After his speech, he departed for Air Force One and a flight to California for a holiday. His time in Chicago was brief, and despite his hopes from a few months prior, his remaining term as president will be limited to months rather than years.

With just three months remaining until the 2024 election, thousands of individuals have convened in Chicago for the Democratic National Convention (DNC). This event, rooted in tradition since the 1830s, marks a significant moment for the Democratic Party, as delegates gather to solidify their platform and energize their base.

The convention’s origins can be traced back to the 1830s when Democratic delegates supporting President Andrew Jackson assembled in Baltimore to nominate him for a second term. Over time, this gathering has evolved into a major event, filled with speeches, celebrity appearances, and political strategy.

This year’s convention, taking place at the United Center Arena in Chicago, began on Monday, August 19, and will continue through Thursday, August 22. While the event will uphold many longstanding traditions, it comes with some notable changes. The most significant is that the party has already officially nominated Vice-President Kamala Harris through a virtual roll call, following President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race.

As a result, the convention’s focus has shifted to speeches from key Democratic figures and the finalization of the party’s platform. The platform, which has already been drafted, addresses a wide array of issues, such as reducing inflation, combating climate change, and curbing gun violence. The draft also contrasts the Democratic Party’s positions with those outlined in Project 2025, a conservative blueprint developed by the Heritage Foundation for a potential second Trump administration. Although Trump has distanced himself from the project, several of his allies were involved in its creation.

Throughout the week, the convention will feature speeches from a range of prominent Democrats. On Tuesday, former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama are expected to deliver remarks. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, and Illinois Senator Tammy Duckworth are also slated to speak. Other notable speakers include Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, Mesa, Arizona Mayor John Giles, and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, the husband of Kamala Harris.

Wednesday’s lineup is expected to feature former President Bill Clinton and former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, among others. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Harris’s running mate, will deliver the prime-time speech on Wednesday night after his official nomination. However, the most significant moment of the convention will occur on Thursday when Vice-President Harris takes the stage to formally accept the presidential nomination and deliver her speech, which will be the culmination of the event. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will also make an appearance during the week.

Already, several notable figures have addressed the convention. President Joe Biden, who was the headline speaker on Monday, delivered an emotional speech defending his presidency. Introduced by his wife Jill and daughter Ashley, Biden stated, “America, I gave my best to you.” The same evening, 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton praised Biden and expressed hope that Kamala Harris could finally shatter the “highest, hardest glass ceiling” by becoming the first female president. Other speakers on Monday included progressive lawmaker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, individuals affected by abortion bans in Republican-led states, and representatives from the labor movement, including United Auto Workers head Shawn Fain.

The convention is expected to draw around 50,000 attendees, including thousands of delegates chosen by state Democratic parties and super delegates, who are significant elected officials and members of the Democratic Party. The media presence will also be substantial, with thousands of members of the press covering the event.

In addition to the political figures, the convention will feature appearances from various celebrities. In previous years, actors such as Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Eva Longoria, Elizabeth Banks, and America Ferrera have attended the DNC. This year, rumors have circulated about potential appearances by mega-stars Beyoncé and Taylor Swift, although neither has confirmed their attendance.

While the convention itself is a highly orchestrated event, it is not without controversy. Demonstrations have been organized outside the DNC venue, primarily opposing U.S. support for Israel’s war in Gaza. On Monday, thousands of protesters marched, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to U.S. support for Israel. Although the protest was mostly peaceful, several arrests were made when some demonstrators breached a security fence. The turnout was reportedly lower than expected, falling short of the 15,000 participants claimed by organizers.

During his speech on Monday, President Biden acknowledged the protesters, stating, “The activists have a point,” and added, “A lot of innocent people are being killed, on both sides.”

For those unable to attend the convention in person, there are multiple ways to follow the coverage. Members of the public can only attend by volunteering, but national media outlets are providing extensive coverage. The convention itself is offering live streams on social media platforms, ensuring that the public can stay informed. BBC News is among the media organizations providing in-depth coverage, with special reporting and analysis available on their website and app, as well as on their live-stream. The BBC News Channel is also airing special coverage each night from 20:00 ET (01:00 BST). Additionally, special episodes of The Global Story and Americast podcasts can be found on BBC Sounds and other podcast platforms.

As the 2024 election draws nearer, the Democratic National Convention serves as a critical moment for the party to rally its supporters and present a unified front. With speeches from key figures, the adoption of a comprehensive platform, and the nomination of Kamala Harris as the presidential candidate, the convention will set the stage for the final stretch of the campaign.

The 2024 electoral race has seen a significant shift since Vice President Kamala Harris took the helm of the Democratic ticket, altering the political map that once appeared to be a rematch between an unpopular, aging incumbent president and the former president, now a convicted felon, whom he defeated four years ago.

This latest analysis of the “Road to 270” electoral map shows several moves favoring Harris, indicating she has more pathways to securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency than President Joe Biden had when he led the Democratic Party. The current outlook resembles the situation in the final days of the 2020 campaign, focusing on seven battleground states and one congressional district in Nebraska. These areas are expected to receive the most attention and resources from both campaigns as they vie for the White House. In the month since Biden announced he would not run for re-election, these seven states have witnessed $240 million in advertising spending, split almost evenly between the two parties, according to AdImpact.

Previously, former President Donald Trump held a clear advantage in the race to 270 electoral votes. However, Harris’ entry into the race and her swift success in unifying the Democratic Party and regaining support from key groups, including voters of color, young voters, and women, has erased that advantage. Although the momentum has shifted in Harris’ favor, the race remains extremely close, with no clear frontrunner. Both Trump and Harris have multiple routes to achieving the necessary 270 electoral votes.

In this new analysis, four states have shifted from leaning Republican to being classified as toss-up battlegrounds: Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Together, these states account for 53 electoral votes, which were previously considered to lean toward Trump.

Trump now has 24 states and one congressional district in Maine either solidly in his favor or leaning in his direction, giving him a total of 219 electoral votes, 51 short of the 270 needed to win. Meanwhile, Harris has 19 states plus the District of Columbia either solidly in her favor or leaning her way, totaling 225 electoral votes, 45 votes shy of the required 270.

Currently, seven states and one Nebraska congressional district, amounting to 94 electoral votes, are classified as true toss-ups as the Democratic National Convention approaches and the summer draws to a close.

It is crucial to understand that this electoral outlook is a snapshot of the current state of the electoral college, not a prediction of the final outcome in November. The analysis is based on public and private polling, discussions with campaign advisers, political operatives from both parties, members of Congress, and professionals involved with outside groups active in the race.

As some Sun Belt states, such as Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, have become more competitive with Harris in the race, her most straightforward path to 270 electoral votes likely involves maintaining the “Blue Wall” states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—and retaining the Omaha-area congressional district in Nebraska in the Democratic column.

For Trump, the most direct route to 270 electoral votes would involve holding onto all the states he won in 2020 and flipping Georgia and Pennsylvania—two states he won in 2016—back to his column. Keeping North Carolina from slipping away is also critical for Trump, which may explain his recent focus on the state, including two visits in as many weeks and increased spending on television ads there.

The current electoral map breaks down as follows:

Solid Republican (188 Electoral Votes):Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3).

Leans Republican (31 Electoral Votes):Florida (30), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1).

Toss-ups (94 Electoral Votes):Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10).

Leans Democratic (50 Electoral Votes): Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (8), Virginia (13).

Solid Democratic (175 Electoral Votes):California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12).

Americans, regardless of their political beliefs, are united in acknowledging that rent costs are high and purchasing a home feels almost out of reach. The housing affordability crisis in the United States is rooted in fundamental economic principles of supply and demand. The housing market is suffering from a severe shortage of available homes, as many sellers are reluctant to put their properties on the market. This hesitancy is largely due to the fear that moving to a new home will result in higher mortgage payments, given the current historic mortgage rates. Meanwhile, demand for homes surged during the pandemic and has remained strong, despite rising prices and interest rates.

Although there are indications that the worst of the housing affordability crisis may have passed, the market remains constrained. This issue is so pressing that it has become a key topic for voters in the 2024 presidential election. On Friday, Vice President Kamala Harris introduced a comprehensive plan aimed at making housing more affordable. While some analysts welcomed certain aspects of her proposals, others expressed concern that some elements might exacerbate existing issues in the housing market.

Harris’ plan, which builds on previously announced proposals by President Joe Biden, includes several key initiatives:

– Up to $25,000 in down-payment assistance for first-time homebuyers.

– A $10,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers.

– Tax incentives for developers who build starter homes intended for first-time buyers.

– Expansion of tax incentives for the construction of affordable rental housing.

– The creation of a $40 billion innovation fund to encourage innovative housing construction methods.

– The repurposing of federal land for affordable housing projects.

– A ban on the use of algorithm-driven tools that landlords use to set rental prices.

– The removal of tax benefits for investors who purchase large numbers of single-family rental homes.

Several economists concurred that adding more homes to the market through these incentives would help alleviate the affordability issue by increasing inventory and potentially driving down prices. However, there was skepticism about the effectiveness of capping rent.

Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist at RSM US, commented on the plan, saying, “What I’ve seen is three parts substance and one part symbolism.” He praised the focus on increasing housing supply through financial channels, describing it as a solid and forward-thinking proposal. However, he viewed the rent caps as more symbolic than practical.

President Biden’s July proposal to limit rent increases to 5% is likely to resonate with the public, according to Brusuelas. However, he noted that the current economic conditions are already easing rent pressures, making such caps potentially redundant. The Consumer Price Index data for July, released on Wednesday, showed that the “rent of shelter” index had risen by 5.1% annually, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Despite this, recent trends indicate that rents are decreasing, with landlords offering incentives like free parking and rent-free months to attract tenants. Brusuelas believes that this makes the proposed price caps ineffective.

Lanhee Chen, director of domestic policy studies at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University and a former campaign adviser for Republicans like Senator Mitt Romney, criticized the rent control measures in Harris’ plan. “What is effectively a federal rent-control measure… was a bad idea when President Biden proposed it a few weeks ago,” Chen said. He also expressed concerns about the $40 billion innovation fund, suggesting that it might be another financial giveaway to local governments without clear accountability for results.

Chen also voiced apprehension about the down-payment assistance initiative. While it may seem appealing to potential homebuyers, it could inadvertently increase demand and drive up housing costs even further. Brusuelas shared a similar viewpoint, noting that while the down-payment assistance might appeal to Gen Z voters, its overall impact on the market is uncertain.

Despite these concerns, Brusuelas emphasized that the most substantial part of Harris’ plan is the proposal to add 3 million housing units to the market. Long before the pandemic and the subsequent supply chain disruptions and rise in remote work, the U.S. housing market was already struggling with chronically low inventory levels. This scarcity of homes has been a significant factor in driving up prices and worsening the affordability crisis.

“The proposal released Thursday from the Harris campaign is the only one I’ve seen that directly addresses the concerns around the supply of housing,” Brusuelas said. He highlighted the need for a coordinated effort by federal, state, and local governments to increase housing supply, as the nation currently faces a shortage of approximately 3 million homes.

Chen agreed that increasing housing supply is the most commendable aspect of Harris’ plan. “There’s bipartisan support for repurposing federal lands for the construction of affordable housing, and the concept of creating the right tax and economic incentives for builders to construct more new housing,” he said. However, Chen expressed some concerns about the targeting of these incentives but acknowledged that these “supply-side” reforms are long overdue.

Former President Donald Trump has also proposed using federal land to address the housing shortage. During a news conference on Thursday, Trump stated, “We’re going to open up tracts of federal land for housing construction. We desperately need housing for people who can’t afford what’s going on now.”

The Republican National Committee’s platform also emphasizes the importance of promoting homeownership through tax incentives and support for first-time buyers. The platform includes a commitment to reducing unnecessary regulations that increase housing costs and lowering mortgage rates by curbing inflation.

Jeffrey Zabel, an economics professor at Tufts University, expressed cautious optimism about Harris’ plan. However, he noted that turning these promises into reality will be challenging. “While this is a step in the right direction, let’s wait and see what they can actually implement,” Zabel said. He emphasized that proposing such measures is one thing, but successfully implementing them is another. Even if these proposals are enacted, Zabel believes that much more needs to be done to restore balance to the housing supply.

While Vice President Kamala Harris’ housing plan has sparked debate, it addresses the critical issue of increasing housing supply, which many experts agree is essential to solving the housing affordability crisis. The effectiveness of rent caps and down-payment assistance remains uncertain, but the proposal to build 3 million new homes may be the key to alleviating the strain on the housing market.

The nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate has introduced a significant shift in the race, with implications that are still unfolding. Her potential to become the first female U.S. president brings the role of the women’s vote into sharp focus for the upcoming November election.

Looking back at the 2022 midterm elections, the women’s vote played a crucial role in countering the expected “red wave,” leading Democrats to perform better than anticipated. This election took place shortly after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, allowing states to impose strict limitations on abortion access. The ruling galvanized a higher-than-expected turnout among women, particularly young women, who supported Democratic candidates in the House of Representatives and state elections.

Now, with Vice President Harris stepping into the role of the Democratic candidate, there is a renewed wave of enthusiasm among Democrats, especially women. Polls conducted weeks before Harris’ nomination showed President Joe Biden trailing behind his Republican opponent, Donald Trump. However, Harris’ emergence has energized many, with women’s health, abortion rights, and reproductive freedom—issues Harris has long championed—taking center stage in the campaign. According to Brookings Institution’s Elaine Kamarck, these issues will be pivotal in the election. Harris has also advocated for policies important to women, including paid parental leave, child care, and economic policies that resonate with younger and minority women. The support for Harris from women’s groups is already visible through increased funding and outreach efforts.

With Harris leading the ticket, the question arises: Will this newfound enthusiasm and potential surge in female voter turnout be sufficient to secure her victory in November? To explore this, it’s essential to review the role of women’s votes in recent presidential elections, identify the demographics most favorable to Democratic candidates, and examine how gender differences in voter turnout could provide women with an electoral advantage. Additionally, analyzing the demographic shifts among female voters from 2012 to the present reveals a rise in Democratic-leaning groups within this electorate. Finally, a simulation of the 2024 election, based on recent polling data, offers insights into Harris’ chances if this enthusiasm translates into increased voter turnout and support among women.

Historically, women have shown a consistent preference for Democratic candidates in presidential elections. Since 1984, women have consistently voted for Democrats over Republicans. This trend is evident in recent elections, as illustrated by the Democratic-Republican (D-R) vote margins by gender from 2000 to 2020. In each election, the D-R margins have been positive for women, who have leaned more Democratic than men, regardless of the party that ultimately won the presidency.

The 2020 election, in particular, highlighted significant gender disparities in voting patterns across battleground states. In seven key states, only one of which (North Carolina) was won by Trump, women exhibited positive D-R margins, while men showed negative margins. The most pronounced gender disparities were observed in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia, where women’s votes were crucial in securing Democratic victories.

These gender differences extended across various demographic groups in the 2020 election. Women’s D-R margins were higher than men’s in groups that traditionally lean Democratic, such as Black voters, Hispanic voters, and young voters aged 18 to 29. Even among non-college-educated white women, who generally favor Republicans, the negative D-R margins were smaller compared to their male counterparts. The only exception was among Asian American voters, where men’s D-R margins were higher than women’s.

Beyond partisan preferences, voter turnout rates will play a crucial role in determining women’s influence in the upcoming election. Since 1980, women have consistently exhibited higher turnout rates than men in presidential elections. In the 2020 election, these turnout rates reached their highest levels in decades. Due to their higher turnout and longer life expectancy, there were 9.7 million more female voters than male voters in 2020.

Women’s higher turnout rates also contributed to their majority share of the electorate, comprising 53% of all voters in 2020. However, this share varies across different demographic groups. For instance, women accounted for 58% of Black voters, 55% of Asian voters, and 54% of Hispanic voters. Among voters aged 65 and older, 54% were women. Even within the white non-college graduate group, which tends to favor Republicans, women still made up a majority of 52%.

As the size of the female electorate continues to grow, its demographic composition is also evolving. Between 2012 and 2024, there have been notable shifts in the profile of eligible female voters by race and education. Specifically, there have been gains in women’s groups that are more likely to vote Democratic—such as white college graduates and women of color—and a decline in the women’s group that tends to favor Republicans—white non-college graduates. For the first time in a presidential election, the latter group will comprise less than 40% of the female electorate.

Similar demographic shifts are evident in the battleground states, where the female electorate has become more diverse and Democratic-leaning. In states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, there has been a decline in the share of white non-college-educated women and an increase in the share of women of color. For example, in Nevada, the proportion of white non-college-educated women decreased from 48% in 2012 to 35% in 2024, while the proportion of women of color increased from 36% to 47% over the same period. These demographic changes have contributed to a more Democratic-leaning voter profile among women in these states.

As polls conducted before and after Harris’ nomination reveal, there are early indications of how the 2024 election might unfold. Three polls of likely voters conducted by the New York Times/Siena College on June 26, July 3, and July 25—after Biden’s endorsement of Harris—show shifts in D-R voting margins among men and women. Notably, the D-R margin for women stood at 14% in favor of Harris versus Trump on July 25, while the negative D-R margin for men remained high at 17%.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate has the potential to reshape the dynamics of the 2024 election, particularly with regard to the women’s vote. The enthusiasm and support for Harris among women, coupled with the changing demographic composition of the female electorate, suggest that women will play a decisive role in the outcome of the election. If this newfound enthusiasm translates into higher voter turnout and increased support for Harris among women, it could significantly boost her chances of winning the presidency in November.

Vice President Kamala Harris is intensifying her focus on high food and housing costs, a central concern for voters, as she prepares to deliver an economic policy speech in North Carolina. In her speech, Harris is expected to advocate for a federal ban on price gouging in groceries and outline strategies to reduce other living costs, positioning these initiatives as extensions of the current administration’s efforts.

Although inflation has recently hit its lowest point in over three years, food prices remain significantly elevated, with a 21% increase compared to three years ago. Former President Donald Trump, now the Republican presidential nominee, has been critical of the Biden administration’s handling of inflation, making it a key issue in his campaign.

Housing costs, another major contributor to inflation, are also a focal point of Harris’s policy proposals. She plans to leverage federal resources to facilitate the construction of three million new housing units, legislate to curb rent hikes, and offer $25,000 in down-payment assistance to first-time homebuyers if elected. Harris is aligning herself closely with President Joe Biden’s legislative and economic record, framing her plans as continuations of their joint work over the past three and a half years.

The proposed Harris housing plan includes the introduction of a tax credit for builders who develop starter homes aimed at first-time buyers and the expansion of a $20 billion “innovation fund” from the Biden administration to support housing construction. The down-payment assistance plan would also significantly build on Biden’s existing proposal to offer federal aid to first-time homebuyers.

Earlier this week, both Biden and Harris celebrated their administration’s achievements in lowering prescription drug prices at an event in Maryland. This marked Harris’s first joint speaking engagement with Biden since she assumed the lead on the Democratic ticket nearly four weeks ago. During the event, they announced that negotiated drug prices would reduce the costs of ten of Medicare’s most expensive drugs, cutting prices by hundreds or even thousands of dollars. This program, a result of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act focused on health care and climate, was made possible through Harris’s tiebreaking vote in the Senate, which allowed Democrats to overcome unified Republican opposition. As Biden noted, “The tiebreaking vote of Kamala made that possible,” adding his confidence that Harris would be a formidable president.

Biden has also undertaken initiatives to combat rising food prices, including the establishment of a “competition council” aimed at reducing costs by fostering competition within the meat industry. This is part of a broader strategy to demonstrate that his administration is actively working to tackle inflation. When questioned on Thursday about whether he was concerned Harris might distance herself from his economic policies, Biden assured reporters, “She’s not going to.”

Public opinion, however, reveals a mixed response to Harris’s economic capabilities. According to the latest poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, 45% of Americans believe Trump is better suited to handle the economy, while 38% favor Harris. Notably, about one in ten respondents expressed trust in neither candidate regarding economic management.

Speaking at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, Trump criticized Harris’s proposals, labeling them as “communist price controls” that would exacerbate shortages, hunger, and inflation. As he made these remarks, Trump was flanked by popular grocery items to underscore his point about rising food costs.

Harris’s housing plan also includes measures to address data-sharing and price-setting tools used by landlords to determine rents and the elimination of a tax incentive that has led investment firms to acquire substantial portions of the nation’s housing stock. Harris plans to contrast her approach with Trump’s, referencing a lawsuit brought against him by the Justice Department five decades ago for housing discrimination.

Consumer confidence surveys indicate that high prices continue to frustrate shoppers, especially those in lower-income brackets, despite the overall cooling of inflation. Prices across the board are about 21% higher than they were before the pandemic, although average incomes have risen slightly more, sustaining consumer spending even as many Americans report a pessimistic outlook on the economy.

Certain meat prices have risen even more steeply than overall inflation: beef prices have surged nearly 33% since the pandemic began, chicken by 31%, and pork by 21%, according to government data. Pandemic-related supply chain disruptions played a role in these increases, as many meat processing plants temporarily shut down due to COVID-19 outbreaks among workers.

The Biden administration, however, has argued that corporate consolidation in the meat processing industry has been a more significant factor, enabling a few large companies to hike prices beyond their costs. In late 2021, the White House noted that four major companies control between 55% and 85% of the beef, chicken, and poultry markets, naming Tyson Foods and JBS among the dominant players. These companies have paid out hundreds of millions of dollars to settle price-fixing lawsuits for chicken, beef, and pork, though they have not admitted to any wrongdoing.

Some economists have suggested that large food and consumer goods companies took advantage of pandemic-era disruptions, a phenomenon economist Isabella Weber at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, termed “seller’s inflation.” Others have referred to it as “greedflation.”

Harris’s proposals to curb price gouging come at a time when there is some evidence that this “seller’s inflation” is easing. Consumers are becoming more selective and are opting for lower-cost alternatives over more expensive options. The government reported Wednesday that grocery prices, on average nationwide, have risen just 1.1% in the past year, aligning with pre-pandemic price increases.

The meat industry has long been defending against allegations of price gouging and price-fixing. Major players in the industry dispute claims that their consolidation is responsible for high prices. Glynn Tonsor, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, explained that the increased costs of raising animals, processing meat, and delivering it to consumers have contributed to higher prices. “Yes, consumers are seeing higher prices, but it doesn’t necessarily mean somebody is gouging them,” Tonsor said.

Julie Anna Potts, President, and CEO of the Meat Institute trade group, echoed this sentiment, arguing that Harris’s proposal would not address the underlying causes of inflation. “Consumers have been impacted by high prices due to inflation on everything from services to rent to automobiles, not just at the grocery store,” Potts said. “A federal ban on price gouging does not address the real causes of inflation.”

Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, has quickly risen to the forefront of the presidential race just three weeks into her campaign. This surge has put her ahead in horserace polling, a challenge that former President Joe Biden struggled to overcome during his time as a candidate. However, the sustainability of this momentum remains uncertain.

The political landscape in the United States has been particularly tumultuous in recent weeks. Significant events, such as the July 13 assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the Republican convention, Trump’s selection of a running mate, Biden’s decision to exit the presidential race, and Harris’s choice of a vice-presidential candidate, have all contributed to the current dynamics. Each of these events alone would typically cause a temporary shift in polling numbers. However, the cumulative impact of these occurrences makes it difficult to determine the true state of the race. With the Democratic convention approaching, yet another potential shift in voter sentiment looms.

As the race evolves, questions arise about its structural changes and the possibility of Trump regaining the lead. A surge of polling in the coming days will begin to shed light on these uncertainties, followed by a critical two-month period of intense polling. Several key metrics have emerged as indicators of Harris’s early success, including her rising personal favorability and the narrowing gap in Trump’s advantage on economic issues, a core aspect of his campaign.

Neil Newhouse, lead pollster for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, commented on the nature of the race, saying, “Presidential campaigns are a marathon, and this one has turned into a sprint. And that tends to favor the candidate who is new on the horizon.”

To gain a deeper understanding of the current state of the race, five key numbers should be closely monitored beyond the basic horserace polling.

Kamala Harris’ Favorability Rating

On June 27, Harris’s favorability rating stood at 39 percent, according to a RealClearPolitics average. As of now, that number has climbed to 45 percent. Voters are beginning to see Harris in a new light since she became the Democratic presidential candidate.

For the past three years, there has been a significant disparity between the number of voters who viewed Harris favorably and those who held an unfavorable opinion of her. However, that gap has narrowed. In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, likely voters in key battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were nearly evenly split in their views of Harris, with 50 percent holding a favorable opinion and 48 percent an unfavorable one.

Despite this improvement, there is no guarantee that it will last. Trump’s campaign has already launched an advertising blitz in battleground states, attempting to portray Harris as “dangerously liberal.” This negative campaigning could potentially erode her favorability ratings, particularly as her record faces increased scrutiny following the initial excitement of her campaign rollout.

“Image is a precursor to ballot change,” said Newhouse. “You’ll see her image change before the ballot changes. You’ll see her unfavs go up, her very unfavs in particular.”

Trump, too, is experiencing a high point in his favorability, at least since the 2020 election. This surge follows the assassination attempt and the Republican convention, but it’s possible that his numbers might also recede to more typical levels, which have generally been unfavorable.

“With Kamala Harris, it’s like ‘A Star is Born,’” observed Mark Mellman, lead pollster for then-Sen. John Kerry in the 2004 presidential race. “It’s not unreal. It’s not unnatural. It’s not fake. But it’s not necessarily permanent. I can certainly imagine a situation where both candidates’ favorabilities decline a little bit.”

Third-Party Vote Share

On July 21, the percentage of voters indicating support for one of the three independent or third-party candidates—Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, or Jill Stein—stood at 12.2 percent, according to a RealClearPolitics average. Today, that number has dropped to 7.1 percent.

While this metric is technically part of the horserace question, it also provides insight into an election where a larger portion of voters now appears to favor their primary options. This shift is attributed to Harris’s surge in popularity and the post-assassination and post-conviction rise in Trump’s favorability. Before Harris replaced Biden on the Democratic ticket, a significant portion of voters expressed dislike for both Biden and Trump, with as many as a quarter of voters falling into this category.

These voters, often referred to as “double-haters,” were seen as potentially decisive in the election. However, their numbers have dwindled. A recent Monmouth University poll revealed that only 8 percent of registered voters now hold unfavorable views of both major-party candidates. Consequently, there are fewer voters inclined to support Kennedy, West, or Stein.

Voter Enthusiasm

Among Democrats, 62 percent are “very enthusiastic” about the election, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Among Republicans, the figure is slightly higher, at 63 percent.

While higher enthusiasm doesn’t always translate into victory, as seen in the 2012 election where Romney supporters were more enthusiastic than Obama’s, Harris has managed to energize the Democratic base in a way that Biden and the fear of a second Trump term had not. In the New York Times/Siena College polls, Democrats and Harris supporters expressed enthusiasm for voting at levels comparable to Republicans and Trump supporters.

The enthusiasm gap is even more pronounced in the Monmouth poll, where 85 percent of Democrats described themselves as enthusiastic about the Harris-Trump race, compared to 71 percent of Republicans. The level of enthusiasm among Republicans remained unchanged from June, when Monmouth pollsters inquired about a potential Trump-Biden rematch. However, for Democrats, this represents a significant shift, as only 46 percent expressed enthusiasm about the rematch before the debate.

While enthusiasm alone doesn’t guarantee more votes, it could play a crucial role in a close race by closing the energy gap between supporters of different candidates.

Perceptions on Economic Leadership

In June, Trump held a substantial lead over Biden on the economy, with 54 percent of voters favoring him compared to Biden’s 45 percent, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll. Now, the gap has narrowed significantly, with Trump at 51 percent and Harris at 48 percent.

Trump’s strong advantage on economic issues has been a central feature of his campaign. However, Harris’s entry into the race has disrupted this dynamic. Polls now show a much closer contest on economic leadership between Trump and Harris, with Trump holding a slight edge of 3 points in a national NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll and 6 points in the Rust Belt battlegrounds surveyed by the New York Times/Siena College.

Harris is eager to establish her own record on the economy. She has planned an event in North Carolina to present her plan to lower costs, signaling her intent to differentiate herself from Biden’s record on inflation, which could be a significant challenge for her campaign.

National Direction Perception

On June 27, 25 percent of voters believed the country was heading in the right direction, while 65 percent thought it was on the wrong track. Today, these figures remain unchanged.

Although this metric hasn’t shifted, voters’ perceptions of it may be evolving. Previously, Trump was seen as the candidate representing change, a favorable position given that two-thirds of voters viewed the country as heading in the wrong direction. However, Harris’s entry into the race has complicated Trump’s status as the candidate of change. She is now positioning herself as the fresh, new face of the campaign, with an emphasis on her youth and vision for the future. This contrasts with Trump, who at 78 years old, is the first person in 80 years to be his party’s presidential nominee in three consecutive elections.

Trump and his supporters will likely focus on convincing voters that Harris, as vice president, bears responsibility for the current state of the country and should be held accountable for the perceived wrong direction.

A significant new poll indicates Kamala Harris has overtaken Donald Trump in three pivotal swing states, marking a substantial momentum shift for the Democratic party just three months before the election.

The poll shows the vice-president leading the former president by four percentage points—50% to 46%—across Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. This survey, conducted by the New York Times and Siena College, sampled nearly 2,000 likely voters between August 5 and 9.

This polling period coincided with Harris’s announcement of Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota and a former high school teacher from the Midwest, as her running mate for the November Democratic ticket.

The poll results offer the most definitive snapshot yet of voter sentiment in critical battleground states since Joe Biden exited the race, throwing his support behind Harris amid increasing concerns about his cognitive health and capacity to serve a second term. This development follows months of polling that showed Biden either neck-and-neck with or slightly trailing Trump.

Registered voters in these states perceive Harris as more intelligent, honest, and temperamentally suited to govern the country compared to Trump.

These findings, released on Saturday by the New York Times, are likely to energize the Democratic base as Harris and Walz continue their campaign across the country. This week marks their first together on the campaign trail, with multiple events planned in swing states that could determine the election outcome.

On Saturday, Harris and Walz held a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada—a state that Biden and Harris won by over two points in the 2020 election.

Although the poll offers only a brief glimpse into the current state of the race, Democrats may find optimism in the fact that 60% of surveyed independent voters—a crucial demographic in determining election outcomes—expressed satisfaction with the presidential candidates. This is a marked increase from the 45% reported in May.

The shift appears to be largely influenced by changing voter perceptions of Harris, who has garnered praise for her positive and forward-looking speeches on the campaign trail. In Pennsylvania, where Biden narrowly defeated Trump by just over 80,000 votes in the previous election, Harris’s favorability rating among registered voters has increased by 10 points since last month, according to the Times/Siena polling data.

To secure a Democratic victory, Harris must win in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan—key battleground states that Biden won in 2020.

The latest polls may further frustrate Trump, whose recent campaign events have been dominated by anger and apparent disbelief at the swift change in momentum. Just weeks ago, Trump announced JD Vance, Ohio senator and former venture capitalist, as his running mate during the Republican national convention, which had a celebratory atmosphere.

Vance has faced criticism from Democrats, who have labeled him as “weird” due to his controversial comments in 2021 about the United States being run by “childless cat ladies.” The new poll shows that the majority of independents, Democrats, and even some Republicans view Vance unfavorably or with little enthusiasm.

Despite this, Democrats still face challenges in effectively communicating Harris’s vision for the country. The poll reveals that 60% of registered voters believe Trump has a clear vision for the nation, compared to 53% for Harris.

Moreover, Trump continues to lead in voter confidence on handling the economy and immigration—two of the three most critical issues for voters, according to the polls.

Nevertheless, Harris holds a significant 24-point lead over Trump on the issue of abortion, which Democrats hope will mobilize voters in crucial swing states like Arizona and Wisconsin. Harris is also perceived far more favorably than Trump regarding democracy. Trump remains embroiled in legal challenges, including charges related to his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election results and his involvement in the January 6 Capitol insurrection.

In response to the poll, Tony Fabrizio, the Trump campaign’s chief pollster, asserted that the new surveys “dramatically understated President Trump’s support,” pointing to polling errors in the 2020 election that overestimated Biden’s margin of victory.

In the current economic landscape, having substantial wealth has always been advantageous, but now more than ever, it seems to be a particularly opportune time to be affluent. The Institute for Policy Studies highlights that during the COVID-19 pandemic, American billionaires saw their wealth increase by 62%. Meanwhile, Oxfam reports that the wealthiest 1% of the world amassed two-thirds of the $42 trillion in new wealth generated in the years following the pandemic.

Vice President Kamala Harris, who is positioning herself as a strong candidate for the presidency, shares concerns with her current superior, President Joe Biden, regarding these statistics. Both see these figures as indicative of an unhealthy level of wealth inequality and economic disparity in the country. Should Harris secure a victory in the November election and work with a cooperative Congress, the wealthy in America might find themselves facing significant changes, particularly those with large fortunes.

Harris’s Wealth Tax Proposal

One of Harris’s primary focuses as a potential president would be to implement tax policies that target the wealthiest Americans. Dennis Shirshikov, a professor of finance, accounting, and economics at the City University of New York, and a seasoned real estate investor, anticipates that a Harris administration would advocate for significant tax reforms aimed at increasing the tax burden on high-income earners. “A Kamala Harris presidency could bring significant changes to the tax landscape for the wealthy,” Shirshikov notes.

A critical component of these potential changes is the introduction of a wealth tax. This idea is embedded in the Biden-Harris 2025 budget proposal, which argues that the current tax code is skewed in favor of the wealthy, allowing them to pay disproportionately low taxes compared to middle-class Americans. The proposal aims to impose a minimum tax of 25% on individuals with wealth exceeding $100 million, addressing what it describes as a glaring inequity in the tax system.

Taxing Capital Gains and Unrealized Gains

Another area of focus for Harris would be closing tax loopholes that disproportionately benefit the wealthy. The Biden-Harris budget proposal plans to treat capital gains as regular income for individuals earning $1 million or more, a significant shift from current tax policies. This change would also eliminate the carried interest loophole, which allows investment fund managers to pay lower tax rates than average workers, and the like-kind exchange loophole, which lets real estate investors defer taxes indefinitely.

Perhaps the most groundbreaking proposal is the taxation of unrealized gains for the ultra-wealthy, a concept described by IFC Media as a “radical departure from normal taxation.” Traditionally, unrealized gains — the increase in value of an asset that has not yet been sold — are not taxed. However, Harris’s proposed 25% tax on these gains for individuals with fortunes exceeding $100 million would mark a significant shift in U.S. tax policy.

Implications for High Earners

Harris’s tax proposals are not limited to the ultra-rich. She also supports raising the top marginal tax rate, a move that would affect a broader range of high-income earners. According to Shirshikov, “This approach aligns with her broader goal of addressing income inequality and ensuring that the wealthiest Americans contribute a fairer share to public revenues.”

The Biden-Harris 2025 budget proposal specifically seeks to repeal the tax cuts implemented under former President Donald Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which reduced the top tax rate for high earners to 37%. Under the new proposal, the top tax rate would be restored to 39.6% for single filers earning more than $400,000 annually and married couples earning more than $450,000. Although these income levels might seem modest compared to billionaire wealth, they place individuals in the top 2% of earners, according to the Tax Foundation. The Biden-Harris administration believes that targeting this group is a reasonable step in addressing income inequality.

The anticipated tax changes under a Harris presidency are intended to generate revenue for social programs and address the widening wealth gap in America. However, these measures are also expected to have significant implications for investment strategies and financial planning among the affluent. As Shirshikov advises, individuals in this income bracket would be wise to start preparing now by consulting with their financial advisors.

Final Thoughts

A Kamala Harris presidency could bring about profound changes in the way the wealthy are taxed in the United States. Her proposals, embedded in the Biden-Harris 2025 budget, aim to create a more equitable tax system that ensures the wealthiest Americans pay a fairer share. Whether through the introduction of a wealth tax, the taxation of unrealized gains, or the increase in the top marginal tax rate, Harris’s potential policies are likely to have a significant impact on the financial landscape for high-income earners in America.

Vice President Kamala Harris has officially chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate for the upcoming November election, where they will face off against former President Donald Trump. Harris made the announcement on Tuesday, both through an Instagram post and a text message to her supporters, highlighting Walz’s commitment to middle-class families and his diverse background, which includes service in the National Guard and experience as a teacher.

Harris praised Walz in her Instagram post, emphasizing his strong background and how it has shaped his political career. She wrote, “I share this background both because it’s impressive in its own right, and because you see in no uncertain terms how it informs his record.” Harris was particularly struck by Walz’s dedication to his family, naming his wife Gwen and their children, Gus and Hope. “But what impressed me most about Tim is his deep commitment to his family: Gwen, Gus, and Hope,” she noted. Harris also mentioned her husband, Doug Emhoff, expressing their eagerness to collaborate with Walz and his family in building an administration that reflects shared values. “Doug and I look forward to working with him and Gwen to build an administration that reflects our shared values.”

The vice president also shared her excitement about the upcoming campaign, stating, “We are going to build a great partnership. We are going to build a great team. We are going to win this election.”

Walz, who is 60 years old, was not initially seen as a frontrunner for the vice-presidential spot. The early stages of the selection process were dominated by speculation around more prominent figures like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. However, Walz’s standing improved significantly over the past week, especially after a viral cable news interview where he criticized some Republicans as “weird.” This comment resonated with national Democrats, who soon adopted this line of criticism.

The selection of Walz comes after a rapid and intense two-week period that began with President Joe Biden announcing the end of his reelection bid. Harris quickly consolidated support within the Democratic Party, becoming the presumptive nominee, and her team moved swiftly to vet potential running mates.

The choice of Walz has been met with approval from both progressive and moderate Democrats. Progressive leader Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York expressed her approval on social media, stating, “Vice President Harris made an excellent decision in Gov. Walz as her running mate. Together, they will govern effectively, inclusively, and boldly for the American people. They won’t back down under tight odds, either – from healthcare to school lunch.” This sentiment was echoed by Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas, who was the first House Democrat to suggest that Biden should not seek reelection. Doggett described Walz as a “solid, decent former colleague with good humor, a former teacher and veteran, who represented a Minnesota district usually represented by the GOP.” He further added, “You can’t not get along with no-nonsense Tim. As Governor, he offers a straight-talking, compassionate leader delivering the progress we need.”

Harris took her time finalizing her decision on a running mate, with reports indicating that she had not made up her mind until late Monday night, only hours before the announcement. Walz was ultimately seen as a safe choice, especially when compared to other potential candidates who had faced criticism from various factions within the Democratic Party. Shapiro, for example, had been under scrutiny for his handling of pro-Palestinian protests following the Israel-Hamas war, and both he and Kelly had drawn criticism from union leaders.

Another factor that made Walz an appealing choice is his Midwestern roots. Trump has increasingly focused on flipping Midwestern states like Minnesota, a state that Biden won by seven points in 2020. Although no Republican has won Minnesota in a presidential election for more than 50 years, Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, have intensified their efforts to campaign in the state.

However, Walz is not without potential weaknesses. Republicans are expected to use his stances on issues like abortion and LGBTQ rights to portray him as a radical liberal, a tactic they have previously used against Harris. Walz’s tenure as governor during the riots that erupted after George Floyd’s murder in Minneapolis will likely be a focal point of Republican attacks. The Trump campaign has already linked Harris to the unrest, criticizing her for supporting a bail fund for protesters arrested during the unrest in Minnesota.

Trump campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt issued a statement attacking the Harris-Walz ticket, saying, “It’s no surprise that San Francisco Liberal Kamala Harris wants West Coast wannabe Tim Walz as her running-mate – Walz has spent his governorship trying to reshape Minnesota in the image of the Golden State.” Leavitt went on to criticize Walz’s policies, including his support for a carbon-free agenda, stricter emission standards for gas-powered cars, and voting rights for convicted felons. “From proposing his own carbon-free agenda, to suggesting stricter emission standards for gas-powered cars, and embracing policies to allow convicted felons to vote, Walz is obsessed with spreading California’s dangerously liberal agenda far and wide,” she said. Leavitt also warned voters about the Harris-Walz ticket, saying, “If Walz won’t tell voters the truth, we will: just like Kamala Harris, Tim Walz is a dangerously liberal extremist, and the Harris-Walz California dream is every American’s nightmare.”

Despite the criticism, Harris and Walz are moving forward with their campaign, with plans to visit several battleground states this week. Their first stop is in Philadelphia on Tuesday evening, followed by visits to Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada. Scheduled trips to North Carolina and Georgia have been postponed due to the impact of Hurricane Debby in the Southeast.

The Harris-Walz campaign is expected to be a closely watched race as they prepare to challenge Trump and Vance in what promises to be a highly contested election.

Vice President Kamala Harris has significantly reduced former President Donald Trump’s lead since she assumed the role of Democratic presidential candidate from Joe Biden. According to recent polls, Harris is now tied with Trump in crucial swing states and leads him by a slim margin nationwide.

Key Facts

A CBS News poll released on Sunday reveals that Harris holds a one-point lead over Trump nationally, a shift driven in part by increased support from younger and Black voters, along with women who believe Harris will advocate for their interests (margin of error 2.1 points). The CBS News survey, conducted from July 30 to August 2, also shows a deadlock between Harris and Trump across seven key battleground states, namely Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada.

Further support for Harris emerges in an Economist/YouGov poll released on Wednesday, which places her two points ahead of Trump, 46% to 44%, in a five-way race that includes third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West. This trend is consistent with several other polls taken since Biden withdrew from the race. Harris is currently ahead in at least four more surveys, although Trump maintains a lead in at least eight others. Many of these polls, however, indicate that Harris has eroded Trump’s advantage over Biden and that her approval rating has improved since she launched her campaign.

Morning Consult’s weekly poll, conducted from July 26 to 28, shows Harris with a one-point lead over Trump, 47% to 46%, marking the second consecutive week she has outperformed Trump in their poll. Additionally, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday indicates Harris is leading by one point, 43% to 42%, although this is a slight decrease from her two-point lead in their previous survey conducted July 22-23.

In contrast, Trump led Harris by three points in a Harvard CAPS-Harris poll conducted from July 26 to 28 when respondents were given the option to choose “don’t know/unsure.” This marks a four-point drop from Trump’s seven-point lead over Biden in a June Harvard CAPS-Harris poll. In a two-way matchup, Trump maintains a four-point lead over Harris, consistent with his previous lead over Biden in June.

Other polls reflect a narrow advantage for Trump. A New York Times/Siena poll conducted from July 22 to 24 shows Trump with a one-point lead, 48% to 47%. Similarly, a Wall Street Journal poll from July 23 to 25 and a HarrisX/Forbes online survey released on June 26 both show Trump leading by two points, 49% to 47% and 47% to 45%, respectively.

Additional polls present a consistent, albeit slight, lead for Trump. He is ahead by three points, 49% to 46%, in an online CNN/SSRS survey conducted July 22-23, by two points, 47% to 45%, in another Morning Consult poll, by one point, 46% to 45%, in a NPR/PBS/Marist poll, and by three points, 44% to 41%, in an Economist/YouGov poll conducted from July 21 to 23. The latter poll also finds Kennedy with 5% support.

Despite these mixed results, polls consistently show that Harris outperforms Biden. Before Biden exited the race, he trailed Trump by six points in polls conducted by Morning Consult, CNN/SSRS, The Wall Street Journal, and Times/Siena.

Big Number

Trump leads Harris by an average of 0.8 points, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. Conversely, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average gives Harris a 1.5-point lead.

Surprising Fact

The New York Times/Siena poll highlights an increased voter engagement following the June 27 Biden-Trump debate, which was largely viewed as a poor showing for Biden. Since the debate, 64% of respondents reported paying close attention to the election, up from 48% before the debate.

Harris vs. Trump in Swing States

Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states that are likely to determine the election outcome: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, as indicated by a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted from July 24 to 28. Harris is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, while Trump leads in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The two are tied in Georgia.

Tangent

Democrats appear more enthusiastic about Harris than they were about Biden, as shown by the Times/Siena survey. Nearly 80% of Democratic-leaning voters express a preference for Harris as the nominee, compared to just 48% who said the same about Biden three weeks earlier. The contrast is also evident in perceptions of mental fitness, with 56% of voters in a Reuters/Ipsos poll stating that Harris is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% who said the same about Trump and only 22% for Biden. Moreover, a 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll found that 87% of Americans support Biden’s decision to end his campaign. More respondents believe this decision will benefit the Democratic Party (45%) rather than the Republican Party (29%).

The 19th News survey also indicates a divide in public opinion regarding Harris’ gender and race. Thirty-one percent of respondents think her being a woman will help her, while 33% believe it will hurt her, and 34% see no impact. There is more optimism regarding Harris’ identity as Black and Indian American, with 32% viewing it as a benefit, 24% seeing it as a disadvantage, and 41% expecting it to have no impact.

Contra

Tony Fabrizio, a pollster for the Trump campaign, predicted a temporary boost in Harris’ polling numbers, coining the term “Harris Honeymoon” in a memo released after the Reuters/Ipsos poll became public. Fabrizio suggested this surge would be short-lived as her entry into the race is expected to energize Democratic voters.

Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election, is now leading former President Donald Trump in eight recent national polls. These polls, conducted by various research firms, reveal a competitive race with Harris holding a slight edge over her Republican opponent.

The latest poll by RMG Research, released on Friday, shows Harris with a 5-point lead over Trump, with 47% of the vote compared to Trump’s 42%. This survey, conducted among 3,000 registered voters between July 29 and July 31, suggests a growing support base for Harris as the campaign intensifies.

Similarly, a Civiqs poll conducted between July 27 and July 30 indicates Harris leading Trump by 5 points. Out of 1,123 registered voters surveyed, Harris garnered 49% of the vote, while Trump received 45%. This poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning Harris’s lead is statistically significant.

In a poll conducted by Leger between July 26 and July 28, Harris leads Trump by 3 points. The poll surveyed 1,002 U.S. residents and showed Harris with 49% of the vote to Trump’s 46%. Notably, this represents a 4-point increase for Harris since Leger’s June poll. When third-party candidates were factored into this poll, Harris’s lead extended to 7 points, with 48% compared to Trump’s 41%.

Four other national polls show Harris with a narrower lead of 2 points over Trump. These include a poll by The Economist and YouGov, where Harris polled at 46% among 1,434 registered voters, within the poll’s margin of error of 3%. Other polls conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, Angus Reid, and Florida Atlantic University, all conducted between July 23 and July 30, similarly showed Harris leading by 2 points, also within their respective margins of error.

The smallest lead for Harris was observed in a Morning Consult poll conducted between July 26 and July 28, where she led Trump by just 1 point. In this poll, Harris had 47% of the vote to Trump’s 46% among 2,223 registered U.S. voters. The margin of error for this poll is plus or minus 2 percentage points, indicating a very tight race.

The recent polling data reflects a positive trend for Harris since she officially launched her campaign two weeks ago. These polls suggest that Harris has managed to close the gap on Trump, a shift from when President Joe Biden was at the top of the Democratic ticket. Additionally, Harris is leading in multiple swing states, which could prove decisive in the upcoming November election.

However, despite these favorable polls for Harris, some experts still believe Trump remains the frontrunner to win the presidency. Election analyst and statistician Nate Silver has suggested that while Harris might win the popular vote, Trump could have the upper hand in the Electoral College.

Silver’s model gives Trump a 54.9% chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Harris’s 44.6% chance. In the popular vote, Harris has a 53.5% chance of winning, while Trump’s chances stand at 46.5%. This model also shows a close contest in critical battleground states. For example, Harris is slightly favored to win Michigan with about a 54% chance, while Trump has a similar chance to win Wisconsin, another key state. In Pennsylvania, Trump has a narrow edge with a 53% chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 47%. Trump holds stronger leads in other swing states, including Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Nate Silver is renowned for his accurate predictions, having correctly forecasted 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election, which adds weight to his current projections.

While these national polls show Harris leading, aggregate polls from The New York Times, The Hill, and RealClearPolitics present a slightly different picture. These aggregates show Trump leading Harris by 1 to 2 points. However, it is noteworthy that Trump’s lead over Harris is smaller compared to his margin over Biden before the latter exited the race.

As the race heats up, Harris is expected to announce her vice-presidential running mate soon. Once the decision is made, Harris and her running mate will embark on a campaign tour across key swing states in an effort to maintain the momentum her campaign has built since she took over the Democratic ticket. The Democratic National Convention, where Harris will formally accept the nomination, is scheduled to take place next week in Chicago.

Meanwhile, Trump continues his campaign with planned events aimed at rallying his base. He is scheduled to hold campaign rallies in Atlanta, Georgia, on August 3, and in Bozeman, Montana, on August 9, according to his campaign website.

As both candidates intensify their campaigns, the polling data suggests a fiercely contested election ahead. With Harris leading in several national polls but Trump still maintaining a strong position in key swing states, the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent history.

Vice President Kamala Harris is gearing up to announce her running mate by Tuesday, coinciding with her first rally alongside her chosen candidate in Philadelphia. This rally will kick off a whirlwind campaign tour across seven key swing states over four days. The cities on the itinerary include Philadelphia, western Wisconsin, Detroit, Raleigh, Savannah, Phoenix, and Las Vegas.

This campaign tour marks the first significant campaign event since Harris became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, following President Joe Biden’s unexpected exit from the race. The decision to embark on this tour reflects the campaign’s belief that the electoral landscape has broadened since Biden handed over the reins to Harris.

The Harris campaign shared the details of this tour exclusively with POLITICO. The choice to start the tour in Pennsylvania’s largest city has sparked speculation about her potential vice presidential pick. One of the leading candidates under consideration is Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. His inclusion would make Philadelphia an ideal location to unveil the decision, given his roots in the city’s suburbs. However, Philadelphia is also a diverse and voter-rich city crucial for any presidential candidate, due to Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes. Therefore, the choice of location might not necessarily indicate anything beyond strategic electoral considerations.

An aide from the Harris campaign advised against drawing too many conclusions from the choice of Philadelphia as the tour’s starting point. Harris herself stated that no final decision on her running mate has been made yet. When asked by reporters on Tuesday if she had selected her running mate, she responded, “not yet.”

In the coming days, Harris plans to interview several potential vice presidential candidates, according to sources familiar with the vetting process, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Among the other names being considered are Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

Governor Shapiro confirmed on Tuesday that he had not spoken to Harris since July 21, the day President Biden withdrew from the race. In recent days, Shapiro has been actively campaigning for Harris across Pennsylvania, a move that many Democrats interpret as an audition for the vice-presidential role. Shapiro headlined a rally with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer in the Philadelphia suburbs on Monday, promoted the IRS’s free tax filing program with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday, and participated in a Harris endorsement event with building trades unions on Friday.

During a visit to a youth basketball program in Philadelphia on Tuesday, Shapiro praised Harris as “a tough-as-nails prosecutor” while criticizing Trump’s running mate, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, stating he is “not exactly off to a good start.”

When asked about his interest in the vice-presidential role or whether he had submitted vetting materials to Harris’s team, Shapiro avoided a direct answer, instead emphasizing the importance of Harris’s choice. “The vice president has a very deeply personal decision to make right now: who she wants to run with, who she wants to govern with, and who can be by her side when she has to make the toughest decisions for the American people. I trust she will make that decision on her own terms when she is ready,” Shapiro stated.

Meanwhile, other vice-presidential contenders have been publicly showing their support for Harris, both in media appearances and fundraising efforts. Governor Tim Walz garnered attention for his viral remark that Trump’s GOP is made up of “weird people,” while Governor Andy Beshear took a jab at Senator Vance, stating on MSNBC that “JD Vance ain’t from here.”

Next week’s campaign tour will be Harris’s first extended tour through key battleground states, although she has already made some early campaign appearances. Last week, she held a rally in Wisconsin, and on Tuesday, she was in Georgia for another rally.

This tour is set to be a pivotal moment for the Harris campaign, as she looks to solidify her position and rally support across critical states. The outcome of her choice for a running mate and the success of this tour could have a significant impact on the overall trajectory of the campaign, as well as on the Democratic Party’s chances in the upcoming election.

President Joe Biden marked the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act on Monday with a visit to the LBJ Presidential Library, where he delivered remarks on his new proposals to reform the U.S. Supreme Court. This speech was his first significant address since announcing his decision to exit the 2024 presidential race.

Speaking in Austin, Texas, Biden highlighted his administration’s efforts to protect civil rights and called for reforms to the Supreme Court. His proposals include implementing term limits for justices, establishing an enforceable code of conduct, and proposing a constitutional amendment to prevent presidential immunity. However, these reforms face significant challenges in a politically divided Congress, where a Republican-controlled House and a closely divided Senate reduce the likelihood of approval.

“In recent years, extreme opinions that the Supreme Court has handed down have undermined long established civil rights principles and protections,” Biden stated. He expressed his respect for institutions and the separation of powers as outlined in the Constitution but criticized the current state of affairs, noting, “What’s happening now is not consistent with that doctrine of separation of powers. Extremism is undermining the public confidence in the court’s decisions.”

Biden cited recent Supreme Court decisions as the impetus for his reform proposals, accusing the court of undermining long-established civil rights protections. He expressed particular concern over the Supreme Court’s ruling in Trump vs. the United States, which established that a sitting president could have immunity for potential crimes committed while in office. “This nation is founded on the principle that there are no kings in America. Each of us is equal before the law. No one is above the law!” Biden asserted.

The significance of Biden’s remarks was heightened by the setting—he is the first sitting president since Lyndon B. Johnson to not seek reelection. With his focus now shifted from the campaign trail, Biden is intent on “finishing the job” in the final months of his presidency, aiming to solidify the legacy of his long political career.

Stephen Benjamin, director of the White House Office of Public Engagement, emphasized Biden’s determination to make the remaining months of his presidency impactful. “The president is focused like a laser beam on making sure that the next six months matter to the American people,” Benjamin told reporters. He added that Biden is actively seeking input from both within his administration and across the country, asking, “What is left undone, what else do we need to work to secure?”

Benjamin also indicated that Biden’s priorities would include holding the Supreme Court accountable, strengthening the economy, and reducing prices for American families. Biden’s proposal for an 18-year term limit for Supreme Court justices is aimed at ensuring the court undergoes regular changes and reducing the potential for any one presidency to have disproportionate influence on future generations. “That would make timing for the court’s nomination more predictable and less arbitrary,” Biden explained, arguing that such a measure would diminish the impact of an “extreme court attacking the confirmation process.”

Despite Biden’s push for these reforms, congressional Republicans have already signaled strong opposition. House Speaker Mike Johnson dismissed the proposed Supreme Court reforms as “dangerous” and declared them “dead on arrival in the House.” Similarly, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell criticized the administration’s push for reform, arguing that it stems from political disagreements with the court’s recent decisions. “Why is the Biden Harris administration so willing to put the crown jewel of our system of government, the independent judiciary, to the torch? Because it stands in their way,” McConnell argued.

Biden concluded his speech by speaking about Vice President Kamala Harris, who has been supportive of his court reform proposals and is now the leading contender for the Democratic presidential nomination. “I’ve made clear how I feel about Kamala,” Biden said. “She has been a champion of rights throughout her career. She will continue to be an inspiring leader and project the very ideal of America.”

This speech underscores Biden’s commitment to ensuring that his remaining time in office is used to advocate for significant reforms and to leave a lasting impact on the country. His focus on the Supreme Court, civil rights, and the economy highlights his priorities as he seeks to cement his legacy in his final months as president.