Trump Narrowly Leads Harris in Key Battleground States, Polls Show Tied Race in Wisconsin

Former President Trump holds a narrow lead over Vice President Harris, the anticipated Democratic presidential nominee, in several crucial battleground states, with the two candidates tied in Wisconsin, as revealed by recent polls.

The survey, conducted by Emerson College Polling and The Hill, and released on Thursday, shows Trump ahead of Harris by 5 points in Arizona, with 49 percent to Harris’s 44 percent. In Georgia, Trump leads by 2 points, at 48 percent to 46 percent; in Michigan, he leads by 1 point, at 46 percent to 45 percent; in Pennsylvania, by 2 points, at 48 percent to 46 percent. In Wisconsin, both candidates are tied at 47 percent.

In every state except Arizona, the polling results fall within the survey’s margin of error, indicating that the races in most battleground states could be even closer than they appear.

Notably, Harris is outperforming President Biden in each of these battleground states, according to a similar survey from earlier this month. She surpasses Biden by 5 points in Georgia, 4 points in Arizona and Wisconsin, and 3 points in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

A national poll aggregate compiled by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ shows Trump leading Harris by roughly 48 percent to 46 percent as of Wednesday afternoon. This is a narrower margin compared to Trump’s lead over Biden, which stands at 47 percent to 43 percent.

Vice President Harris has been actively campaigning since receiving President Biden’s endorsement on Sunday. She held her first rally in Milwaukee on Tuesday, following Biden’s withdrawal from the race.

“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” explained Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a press release. “Harris’s numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.”

“Young voters have shifted toward Harris: Her support increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month,” added Kimball.

Among potential vice presidential picks from key swing states, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D) saw the highest support from Democratic voters in his state, with 57 percent backing him as Harris’s running mate. Senator Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) received 42 percent support from Arizona Democratic voters, while Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) garnered 36 percent support from Democratic voters in her state.

The survey also brings positive news for Senate Democrats. Senators Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), along with Representatives Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), lead their respective Republican Senate competitors by margins of 4 or 5 points.

Democrats have rallied around Harris following Biden’s announcement that he would withdraw from the presidential race and support his vice president instead. Numerous high-profile Democrats have quickly endorsed Harris with just weeks remaining before the Democratic National Convention.

The polling results also highlight that Senate Democratic candidates continue to outperform the Democratic presidential nominee.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted from July 22-23. It included 800 respondents each in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points in each state. In Pennsylvania, 850 respondents were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, and in Wisconsin, 845 respondents were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

Kamala Harris Leads Trump by 19 Points Among Indian Americans in Favorability Ratings, Campaign Poll Shows

Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic nominee for the US Presidency, holds a significant 19-point lead over her Republican opponent Donald Trump in favorability among Indian Americans, according to internal polling from the Harris campaign.

These findings were shared on Wednesday in a memo by Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon, providing an update on the overall state of the presidential race. The data covered a wide range of topics, including the favorability ratings among Asian Americans, encompassing Indian, Japanese, Chinese, Vietnamese, Korean, and Filipino communities.

The poll was conducted internally on July 10, just 11 days before President Joe Biden ended his campaign under Democratic pressure and endorsed Harris for the top spot. She is now considered the de facto party nominee.

This internal poll assessed the favorability ratings of Biden, Trump, Harris, and Nikki Haley, the former US Ambassador to the UN and also of Indian descent like Harris, among Asian Americans. The results showed that 54 percent of Indian Americans had a “very favorable” to “somewhat favorable” view of Vice President Harris, a substantial 19-point advantage over Trump’s 35 percent. Harris also led Haley by 21 points but was slightly behind Biden, who had a 55 percent favorability rating.

The head-to-head matchup between Biden and Trump highlighted a significant decline in Biden’s support within the community. Only 46 percent of Indian Americans indicated they would vote for Biden if the election were held at the time of the survey, while 29 percent preferred Trump. Additionally, 20 percent were either undecided or refused to answer.

This marks a sharp drop from 2020 when a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace survey showed that 72 percent of Indian Americans planned to vote for Biden, compared to 22 percent for Trump. This decline likely reflects a general lack of enthusiasm for Biden’s second term despite his favorable perception.

The Harris campaign’s internal poll also revealed that 55 percent of Indian Americans intended to vote for Democratic Senate candidates, and 52 percent for Democratic House candidates. However, the Republican party has made some gains, with 29 percent planning to vote for Republican Senate candidates and 31 percent for Republican House candidates.

The US Indian American population ranges from 4.16 million to 4.4 million, making up about 1.4 percent of the more than 333 million US population. Out of these, only 2.62 million are US citizens, with 1.9 million registered voters, representing 0.82 percent of all registered voters in the country. Despite these seemingly small numbers, the community’s impact is significant.

Virginia, once a solid Republican state, has become reliably Democratic largely due to its substantial population of Indian Americans and other immigrants in the northern region near Washington. The community also plays a pivotal role in swing states, which decide presidential elections by narrow margins—Biden won Wisconsin by just a 0.63 percent margin in the last election.

O’Malley Dillon emphasized in the memo that the 2024 race between Harris and Trump is expected to be “tight,” noting that every vote will count in such close contests.

South Asian Women Rally Behind Kamala Harris at Virtual Launch, Raising Over $250,000 in Two Hours

Television stars Mindy Kaling and Poorna Jagannathan, along with Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal, were prominent figures at the virtual launch of South Asian Women for Harris on July 24.

The event drew around 9,000 women, despite being organized through word of mouth within three days following Vice President Kamala Harris’s announcement to run for the Democratic presidential nomination. Harris’s campaign has swiftly garnered $126 million in donations in under 72 hours and secured the necessary pledged delegates and 38,000 volunteers for the nomination.

During the two-hour launch, participants raised over $250,000, setting a record for a Zoom event. Venu Gupta, one of the organizers, emphasized the critical role of women voters, stating, “It’s going to take every woman voter in this country to win this election. We’re not running for office: we’re running for our rights.”

The event featured a panel of seasoned political activists, including Vanita Gupta, former US Associate Attorney General; Reshma Saujani, founder of Girls Who Code; and Rohini Kosoglu, Deputy Assistant to the President and Domestic Policy Advisor to the Vice President in the Biden-Harris administration. The panel was moderated by Mini Timmaraju, president of NARAL, a pro-choice organization. Saujani praised Harris, calling her the “mom’s candidate.”

Actress and producer Mindy Kaling, who is also a single mother of three, kicked off the event. She expressed her admiration for Harris’s boldness, saying, “Culturally, I was raised to keep my head down and not make a stir. I’m so glad to see that Kamala Harris has done the exact opposite throughout her career.” Kaling also commended Harris’s staunch pro-choice position, stating, “We need abortion care, not tax cuts for millionaires.”

Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal, representing Washington state and a Congress member since 2017, highlighted her and Harris’s election to the Senate and House on the same night in 2016, when Donald Trump won the presidency. Jayapal recalled Trump’s subsequent Muslim ban and her efforts to prevent deportations at the airport.

Jayapal introduced a bill to repeal the Muslim ban in the House and encouraged Harris to introduce it in the Senate. They have collaborated on multiple bills, including those supporting domestic workers’ rights, universal childcare, and abortion access. Jayapal, an early advocate for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas conflict, admitted uncertainty about Harris’s stance on the issue but noted Harris’s compassion.

Poorna Jagannathan expressed hope that Harris would push for a cease-fire and a permanent resolution to the Israel-Hamas conflict, stressing its importance to young voters. “We cannot afford not to talk about Gaza,” she emphasized.

Neeru Khosla, founder of the CK12 Foundation, was a surprise guest at the event. Her organization has educated over 265 million low-income children worldwide using a unique AI-based model. Khosla, whose husband Vinod Khosla is a notable venture capitalist, had hosted a fundraiser for Biden in May.

At her daughter Anu’s request, Neeru spoke at the event, expressing optimism and admiration for Harris. “Kamala is intelligent, she’s trained, and she wants to do the job. This is a very optimistic time,” she said, mirroring the positive sentiments shared in the Zoom chat.

Kiran Jain, who interviewed Khosla, remarked, “This election feels like it will be won via WhatsApp,” highlighting the significant role of digital communication in the campaign.

Thulasendrapuram Celebrates Kamala Harris: A Village’s Pride and Connection to the U.S. Presidential Hopeful

In the small village of Thulasendrapuram, located approximately 300 kilometers from Chennai, India, and 14,000 kilometers from Washington DC, Kamala Harris’ maternal heritage is a source of immense pride. The village, renowned for its deep-rooted cultural ties, is currently adorned with a large banner of Kamala Harris, who is 59 years old. This display is a symbol of local admiration and celebration.

To mark her achievements, villagers have been engaging in special prayers to their local deity, hoping for her continued success. Notably, both Ms. Harris and her maternal grandfather have contributed to the village temple, further strengthening their connection to the community. In addition, sweets are being distributed among the villagers, a gesture that reflects their shared joy and excitement.

The residents of Thulasendrapuram have been closely following the US presidential race, particularly after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, which has heightened interest in Ms. Harris as a potential nominee. Krishnamurthi, a retired bank manager, expressed the village’s sentiment by saying, “It is not an easy feat to be where she has reached in the most powerful country in the world.” He continued, “We are really proud of her. Once Indians were ruled by foreigners, now Indians are leading powerful nations.”

This pride is especially palpable among the women of the village, who view Ms. Harris as a symbol of female empowerment and potential. Arulmozhi Sudhakar, a local body representative, shared, “Everybody knows her, even the children. ‘My sister, my mother’ – that is how they address her.” He added, “We are happy that she has not forgotten her roots and we express our happiness.”

The enthusiasm in Thulasendrapuram is reminiscent of the celebrations that took place when Ms. Harris was inaugurated as Vice President. Villagers took to the streets with fireworks, posters, and calendars to honor her historic achievement. The festivities included a communal feast featuring traditional South Indian dishes such as sambar and idli, which Ms. Harris’ relatives have mentioned as her favorites.

Kamala Harris’ connection to India is deeply rooted. Her mother, Shyamala Gopalan, was a prominent breast cancer researcher from Tamil Nadu who moved to the United States in 1958. Shyamala’s parents were originally from Thulasendrapuram. Reflecting on her mother’s legacy, Ms. Harris posted on social media, “My mother, Shyamala, came to the US from India alone at 19. She was a force – a scientist, a civil rights activist, and a mother who infused a sense of pride in her two daughters.”

After her mother’s passing, Ms. Harris, along with her sister Maya, traveled to Chennai to immerse their mother’s ashes in the sea, adhering to Hindu customs, as reported by The Hindu newspaper.

Ms. Harris hails from a distinguished family. Her maternal uncle, Gopalan Balachandran, is an academic, while her grandfather, PV Gopalan, made significant contributions as an Indian bureaucrat and expert on refugee resettlement. PV Gopalan also served as an advisor to Zambia’s first president in the 1960s.

  1. Rajaraman, an emeritus professor of theoretical physics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi and a former classmate of Ms. Harris’ mother, remarked on her prominence, saying, “She [Kamala] has been a prominent figure for quite a while now. It’s not a great surprise. Something like this was on the cards for many years.” Prof. Rajaraman recounted reconnecting with Shyamala in the mid-1970s during a visit to Berkeley, where he remembered, “Shyamala was there. She gave me a cup of tea. These two children [Kamala and her sister Maya] were there. They paid no attention.” He added, “Both of them were enterprising. There was positivity in her mother, which is there in Kamala also.”

In Thulasendrapuram, anticipation is building as the villagers await the official announcement of Ms. Harris’ candidacy. Natarajan, the temple priest, noted that “Kamala’s chithi [Tamil for mother’s younger sister] Sarala visits this temple regularly. In 2014 she donated 5,000 rupees ($60; £46) on behalf of Kamala Harris.” He expressed optimism, stating, “Natarajan is confident that their prayers will help Ms. Harris win the election.”

Though thousands of miles separate Thulasendrapuram from the US, the villagers maintain a strong sense of connection to Ms. Harris’ journey. They harbor hopes that she might visit their village someday or that Thulasendrapuram could be mentioned in one of her speeches.

Netanyahu to Address Congress Amid Tensions and Protests Over Gaza Conflict

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to address a joint session of the U.S. Congress in an effort to strengthen support for his country’s ongoing conflict with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This address comes at the invitation of Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, who represents the Republican Party’s steadfast backing of Israel.

Despite this, more than 30 Democratic lawmakers, including prominent figures like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have declared they will not attend the speech. Netanyahu arrived in the U.S. on Monday and is scheduled to speak before Congress on Wednesday. Following his address, he will meet with President Joe Biden and Vice-President Kamala Harris. Additionally, Netanyahu will hold a separate meeting with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. In a post on Truth Social, Trump expressed anticipation for the meeting: “Looking forward to welcoming Bibi Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida,” using the common nickname for the Israeli prime minister.

Netanyahu has stated his intention to “present the truth about our just war” during his Congressional address. This visit marks his first trip to the U.S. since the conflict with Hamas commenced nearly 10 months ago. The Israeli Prime Minister is under increasing international and domestic scrutiny regarding his management of the war.

In May, International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan requested arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and three Hamas leaders, citing alleged crimes against humanity and war crimes. Both Israel and Hamas reacted strongly against this action. Furthermore, last week, the International Court of Justice declared that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories was “illegal,” a conclusion that Israel has rejected.

Protests are anticipated in Washington, with thousands of pro-Palestinian demonstrators expected to participate in a “day of rage.” Speaker Johnson has cautioned against protests within the House chamber, warning of potential arrests “if we have to do it.”

On Tuesday, approximately 200 Jewish American peace activists staged a protest within the Capitol building complex. They were eventually removed by police; the protesters wore red T-shirts with slogans such as “Not in our name” and “Jews say stop arming Israel.”

Netanyahu’s visit comes amid a strained relationship between his administration and the U.S., particularly with prominent Democrats. President Biden has increasingly criticized Israel as the war persists and the death toll in Gaza rises. Biden, who exited the presidential race on Sunday, faces mounting pressure from his party’s progressive wing to urge Israel to curtail its military actions in Gaza. Vice-President Harris, the likely Democratic nominee, will not assume her role as Senate president during Netanyahu’s speech.

Over 30 Democratic legislators have chosen to skip Netanyahu’s address. Senator Dick Durbin from Illinois, one of the dissenters, expressed his support for Israel but indicated he would not support the current Israeli leader. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders also announced his decision to boycott the speech, condemning the “total war” being waged by Netanyahu’s government in Gaza. Sanders criticized Netanyahu’s policies, stating, “His policies in Gaza and the West Bank and his refusal to support a two-state solution should be roundly condemned.”

Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen commented, “It sends a terrible message to bring him here now to address a joint session of Congress.”

The conflict began when Israel launched a campaign in Gaza in response to a severe attack on southern Israel on October 7, which resulted in approximately 1,200 fatalities and 251 hostages. Since then, Gaza’s health ministry reports that over 39,000 people have died in the region, though these figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

The World Health Organization expressed significant concern on Wednesday about the potential for a polio outbreak in Gaza following the discovery of traces of the virus in wastewater.

Poll Reveals Kamala Harris Outpaces Biden in Public Perception as Trump Campaign Dismisses Support Surge

A recent poll reveals that a majority of respondents, 56 percent, view Vice President Kamala Harris, 59, as “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” whereas 37 percent disagree with this assessment. In comparison, only 22 percent of voters consider President Joe Biden, who is 81, to have similar attributes. The poll, which carries a 3 percent margin of error, underscores a notable disparity in public perception between the two prominent figures.

On Sunday, Biden announced the end of his reelection campaign, citing concerns over his age and health as significant factors influencing his decision. He has endorsed Kamala Harris as his successor. Biden had faced mounting pressure from both Republicans and members of his own party, particularly following a poorly received performance in the first presidential debate last month. During this debate, Biden struggled with stammering and failed to effectively counter former President Donald Trump’s attacks, which included numerous false claims.

Trump and his MAGA allies had previously been vocal in criticizing Biden’s age, frequently deriding him as “Sleepy Joe” and questioning his cognitive abilities. They insinuated that he “can’t put two sentences together and he’s in charge of nuclear warfare.”

In response to Biden’s announcement, House Speaker Mike Johnson immediately criticized the Democrats’ move. Johnson suggested that the GOP would challenge the legality of the party’s switch to Kamala Harris as the nominee. “I think they’ve got legal hurdles in some of these states,” Johnson told CNN on Sunday. “And it’ll be litigated, I would expect, on the ground there.”

Despite these challenges, Harris has quickly mobilized her campaign, raising over $100 million from Sunday afternoon to Monday evening. According to a survey by The Associated Press, she has also secured enough delegate support to secure the Democratic nomination for the 2024 presidential election.

In a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, Harris holds a slim 2-percentage-point lead over Trump, with 44 percent of respondents supporting her against the Republican candidate, who garnered 42 percent. When voters were presented with a hypothetical ballot that included independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris led Trump by 42 percent to 38 percent, an advantage that falls outside the margin of error.

Kennedy, who is favored by 8 percent of voters in the poll, has yet to qualify for the ballot in several states ahead of the November 5 election.

Polls conducted on July 15 to 16 showed Harris and Trump tied at 44 percent, while a July 1 to 2 poll had Trump leading by a single percentage point. Both surveys had a margin of error of 3 percent.

Trump’s campaign has dismissed any rise in Harris’ support as temporary, attributing it to the media coverage surrounding her new candidacy. “That bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last for a while,” said Tony Fabrizio, a pollster with Trump’s campaign, in a memo circulated to reporters, according to Reuters.

A Morning Consult poll conducted after Biden’s exit from the race shows Trump with a two-point lead over Harris, receiving 47 percent support compared to Harris’s 45 percent. However, this poll also indicates a narrowing gap between Trump and the Democrats. Previously, a survey by Morning Consult conducted between July 15 and 17 showed Trump leading Biden by four points, with Trump at 46 percent and Biden at 42 percent. The more recent poll, which surveyed 4,001 registered voters, has an unweighted margin of error of +/- 2 points.

Kamala Harris Secures Democratic Nomination, Faces Daunting Challenges Ahead in Historic Election Bid

Kamala Harris has already gained significant momentum in her bid for the Democratic nomination, securing enough delegates, igniting a fundraising surge, and revitalizing a party that seemed headed for defeat. Despite this strong start, Harris is just beginning a challenging mission, facing intense future attacks from Republican nominee Donald Trump in an unpredictable election season.

In a powerful speech at campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, Harris, with Biden calling in to confirm the transition, laid out her case against Trump, framing the election as a choice between two distinct futures for the country. Earlier, she presided over an event at the White House, positioning herself in the imagery of the presidency. Most notably, she received the endorsement of Nancy Pelosi, whose maneuvering was crucial in ending Biden’s stalled reelection bid. Pelosi’s endorsement quickly led other congressional leaders to rally behind Harris, solidifying her position as the Democratic nominee.

By Monday evening, Harris had more than the 1,976 pledged delegates needed to secure the nomination, according to CNN’s delegate estimate. Following the freezing of donor cash that forced Biden out, Harris raised over $100 million between Sunday and Monday evening, with 62% of the donors being first-time contributors. Her swift consolidation of power was evident in her multi-hour phone blitz to Democratic power players on Sunday, indicating a well-prepared but secret operation that effectively quashed hopes for alternative candidates.

Despite this strong start, danger signs are apparent. There’s a saying in Washington that a presidential candidate’s best day is often the one following their announcement. Harris, now playing at the highest level, must sustain this new momentum in a party that seemed headed for defeat just days ago. Even if she secures the Democratic nomination, she will face Trump’s aggressive campaign. Trump is known for his misogynistic and racially charged rhetoric, likely making the upcoming months some of the most contentious in modern election history.

The pressure on Harris from Democrats is immense. While she has shown signs of improving her political skills, this has never been her strength. Party leaders are not only relying on her to prevent a new era of conservative rule that could undo the achievements of the Biden and Obama presidencies, but also to lead a campaign with the foundational goal of saving democracy from Trump. Harris has just over 100 days to achieve this.

Trump initially seemed thrown off by the sudden shift in Democratic candidates. However, his campaign quickly adapted, previewing a blistering assault on Harris. Trump’s co-campaign managers, Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, depicted her as the “copilot” of Biden’s failures, criticizing her record on immigration and her historically low approval ratings. “She makes just as much sense as Joe Biden. By that we mean, none at all,” they stated.

Harris’ push for the Democratic nomination is a significant twist in a race that has defied convention, with the oldest president in US history launching a reelection bid only to step back. The Republican nominee, Trump, is another unpopular figure who attempted to subvert US democracy after losing the last election and is a convicted felon. Despite this, Trump was celebrated at the GOP convention as a strongman hero following an assassination attempt.

Harris has moved swiftly to unify the party, with key power brokers avoiding a divisive nomination fight. Governors, senators, and state delegations quickly rallied behind her, reflecting a party desperate to prevent a second Trump term. As Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Ben Wikler noted, there has been a “flowering of unity” since Biden stepped down. Harris’ unique coalition may replace the frayed one that hindered Biden’s campaign. A CNN poll indicated that Harris outpolled Biden among women, independents, and movable voters in a hypothetical matchup against Trump, crucial voting blocs in swing states.

Harris’ rise has redefined the 2024 race, shifting Democrats from defense over Biden’s age to a generational transformation with a candidate nearly 20 years younger than the 78-year-old Republican nominee. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, during her GOP primary campaign, had suggested that the first party to “retire their 80-year-old” candidate would win the election, a move Democrats have now made. “I promise you, you’re never going to hear Donald Trump ask his opponent to take a cognitive test again,” Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell of California said.

New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu predicted a significant change in the race with Biden’s replacement, suggesting that Democrats might be rewarded by independents for their decision. Harris on Monday began using the symbolic imagery of the White House to enhance her reputation, welcoming National Collegiate Athletics Association championship teams, a duty typically performed by presidents but taken on by Harris as Biden neared the end of his Covid-19 isolation. She praised Biden, saying he had “surpassed the legacy of most presidents who have served two terms,” without directly mentioning the election.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, expected to soon endorse Harris, stated, “Vice President Kamala Harris is off to a great start with her promise to pursue the presidential nomination.”

However, Harris faces significant challenges. Democrats are betting on a candidate who is unpopular and has not yet proven she can perform better than Biden in key swing states. If Harris stumbles, Democrats risk being seen as imposing another unsuitable candidate. Additionally, it remains to be seen whether voters’ frustrations were primarily due to Biden’s age or broader economic concerns. Trump, despite his flaws, has often led polling on key issues like immigration, national security, and the economy. Harris could suffer if Biden’s legacy is an electoral handicap.

Trump’s team is intensifying their attacks, portraying Harris as complicit in a supposed White House cover-up of Biden’s health. GOP vice presidential nominee JD Vance claimed, “Kamala Harris lied about it. My Senate Democratic colleagues lied about it. The media lied about it. Every single person who saw Joe Biden knew that he wasn’t capable of doing the job, and for three years they said nothing, until he became political deadweight.”

Harris also faces the challenge of overcoming historic barriers. Sixteen years ago, many doubted the country would elect a Black man, but Barack Obama proved them wrong. Now, Harris, a Black woman and Asian American, faces an even higher historic barrier.

Kamala Harris Poised to Lead Democrats, Faces Crucial Battle Against Trump

Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to become the Democratic presidential nominee, barring any unforeseen events. Harris gained support on Monday, following President Joe Biden’s announcement that he would not seek reelection.

Numerous potential Democratic contenders have endorsed Harris, including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) also expressed her support for Harris on Monday, having withheld endorsement during her initial reaction to Biden’s decision to step aside.

The key question now is whether Harris can defeat former President Donald Trump. Here are the primary arguments for and against her candidacy:

Democrats Are Finally United and Excited

The Democratic Party is eager to move past recent divisions and low spirits. The party was thrown into turmoil after Biden’s poor debate performance in Atlanta on June 27, leading to intense internal strife between his critics and supporters. The rapid consolidation around Harris indicates a strong desire to move forward. With the Democratic National Convention in Chicago less than a month away and the election just over 100 days away, the party is eager to rally behind her.

Harris’s candidacy generates excitement for several reasons. She is the first woman, Black person, and person of South Asian descent to serve as vice president and is now aiming for the highest office. Her campaign’s momentum is also reflected in the flood of donations, with the Harris campaign, the Democratic National Committee, and related fundraising committees raising $81 million in just 24 hours.

Age Issue Shifts to Democrats’ Favor

Concerns about age and mental sharpness ended Biden’s political career at 81. In contrast, Harris is 59, removing a significant vulnerability for Democrats. This shift puts the spotlight on the 78-year-old Trump, who has had his own gaffes, including confusing Pelosi’s name with his former primary rival Nikki Haley and mistakenly referring to Biden as Obama on several occasions.

A poll by ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos following the Atlanta debate revealed that 85% of adults believed Biden was too old for a second term, while 60% thought the same about Trump. This is a vulnerability Harris can exploit.

Trump’s Unpopularity

Despite media focus on the resilience of Trump’s MAGA base, he remains broadly unpopular nationwide. According to the polling average from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Trump is viewed unfavorably by about 53% of Americans and favorably by only 42%. These figures have slightly improved following an assassination attempt against him in Butler, Pa., on July 13, but his unpopularity remains a significant factor.

Trump lost the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020. His presidency was marred by the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, a civil trial where he was found liable for sexually abusing writer E. Jean Carroll, and a criminal trial with 34 felony convictions. Democrats believe they have a strong chance if they can frame the November election as a referendum on Trump, a goal more achievable with Harris as the nominee.

Harris Leads on Reproductive Rights

Since the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June 2022, Harris has been at the forefront of the Biden administration’s defense of reproductive rights, making her the leading voice on the Democrats’ strongest campaign issue. The pro-abortion rights stance has consistently won statewide votes on related ballot measures, and even Trump acknowledges this as a crucial factor in the Democrats’ unexpectedly strong performance in the 2022 midterms. Harris’s potential to become the first female president adds intensity to the abortion debate.

Harris’s Low Favorability Ratings

During the peak of Biden’s crisis, some supporters argued that Harris might not fare better. She trails Trump by almost 3 percentage points nationally, according to The Hill/DDHQ polling average. This performance is not significantly better than Biden’s at the time of his withdrawal, though Biden’s standing was rapidly declining.

Harris’s favorability ratings are worse than Trump’s. She is nearly 20 points underwater in the DDHQ average, viewed negatively by about 56% of Americans and positively by only 38%. This indicates that Democratic enthusiasm for Harris is not mirrored among centrist voters. An Economist/YouGov poll last week showed that more than twice as many independents viewed her unfavorably compared to favorably, at 58% to 26%.

Harris’s 2020 Campaign Failures

Critics of Harris often cite her underwhelming 2020 campaign. She launched her bid for the Democratic nomination in January 2019 with a large rally in Oakland, but her campaign never gained significant traction. The high point came during a July 2019 debate when she criticized Biden for his past opposition to school busing. Harris eventually dropped out before the Iowa caucuses. Skeptics worry that the same issues—questions about her authenticity, failure to connect with voters, and internal staff conflicts—could resurface this fall.

Potential Bias Against Harris

A sensitive issue in Harris’s candidacy is whether she could be hindered by voter prejudice. Some question whether the nation is ready to elect a Black woman as president. Proponents argue that Obama’s presidency broke racial barriers, and women’s political prominence has significantly increased. However, notable female politicians, such as Hillary Clinton in 2016, have fallen short, raising concerns about lingering misogyny.

Supporters claim that many attacks on Harris, including criticisms of her laugh, rhetoric, and dancing, reflect a double standard compared to white or male counterparts. These criticisms contribute to her low approval ratings.

Harris’s Association with Immigration Issues

Immigration remains one of the Democrats’ biggest vulnerabilities heading into November, and Harris is closely associated with it. Unauthorized southern border crossings have declined recently but reached an all-time high last December. Trump has blamed Harris for the “worst border ever” due to her role as “border czar,” though CBS News clarified that this title does not officially exist and that the Department of Homeland Security primarily handles immigration.

Harris was tasked with addressing the root causes of Central American migration under Biden, a complex and perhaps unsolvable issue. Her strong association with immigration is a weakness that Trump and the GOP are likely to exploit to their advantage.

While Harris’s candidacy brings renewed excitement and unity among Democrats, she faces significant challenges, including her low favorability ratings and the potential for voter bias. Her leadership on reproductive rights and the shift in the age debate offer advantages, but her past campaign struggles and association with immigration issues could pose hurdles in the upcoming election.

Biden Exits 2024 Race, Endorses Harris: Global Leaders React to Historic Decision Amidst Political Upheaval

Messages of appreciation and solidarity for U.S. President Joe Biden surged following his unexpected announcement on Sunday that he is withdrawing from the 2024 presidential race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate. This marked the second major political upheaval in the U.S. in just over a week, coming on the heels of the July 13 assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump at a Pennsylvania rally, which saw international leaders rallying around him as the Republican nominee.

Biden’s decision to exit the race came after intense pressure, largely fueled by his poor performance in the CNN presidential debate last month. On Sunday, Biden confirmed his stance to remain a one-term president, triggering a wave of tributes from global allies who expressed their gratitude for his leadership.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who recently met with Biden in Washington, expressed his respect for the president’s choice and anticipation for continued collaboration throughout his remaining term. Starmer stated on X, “I know that, as he has done throughout his remarkable career, he will have made his decision based on what he believes is best for the American people.”

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau praised Biden as a “true friend” to Canada, highlighting his dedication and love for his country. “He’s a great man, and everything he does is guided by his love for his country,” Trudeau wrote on X.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese remarked that Biden deserved acknowledgment for “once again not putting himself forward first, but giving his first consideration to being what he believes is in the interests of the United States of America, as he has done his whole public life.” Albanese continued, “President Biden has dedicated his life to public service, and that is something that deserves much respect.”

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon also paid tribute to Biden, noting on X, “President Biden has dedicated his life to public service, and that is something that deserves much respect.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky lauded Biden for his “unwavering support” amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia. Zelensky stated on X, “Many strong decisions have been made in recent years and they will be remembered as bold steps taken by President Biden in response to challenging times. We will always be thankful for President Biden’s leadership.”

In contrast, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed that Moscow was “not too surprised” by Biden’s withdrawal. Peskov told reporters, “In recent years, what has been happening in the United States has taught us not to be surprised by anything.” He added, “This topic should concern American voters, but not us,” emphasizing the importance of Russian-American relations, which are currently at a historic low.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu affirmed that Israel will remain “an irreplaceable ally” of the U.S. regardless of the election outcome. Speaking from Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport before heading to the U.S., Netanyahu expressed gratitude to Biden “for the things he did for the state of Israel, both in the war and during his years of service as a senator, as vice president and as president.”

President Isaac Herzog labeled Biden as a “true ally of the Jewish people,” and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant praised Biden’s “steadfast backing, especially during the war,” in posts on X. Biden has been a strong supporter of Israel’s actions in Gaza following Hamas’ attacks on October 7 but has faced criticism from Netanyahu over humanitarian aid and civilian casualties.

Irish Taoiseach Simon Harris described Biden as “a proud American with an Irish soul,” appreciating his “global leadership” and “friendship.”

Other leaders commended Biden for his challenging decision to withdraw from the race. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wrote on X, “My friend Joe Biden has achieved a lot: for his country, for Europe, for the world. His decision not to run again deserves respect.”

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro praised Biden’s “correct” choice to prioritize his family and health, wishing him “health and a long life” during a rally on Sunday.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk acknowledged Biden’s difficult decisions, noting on X that these choices have contributed to a safer world and stronger democracy. “I know you were driven by the same motivations when announcing your final decision. Probably the most difficult one,” Tusk wrote.

South Korean and Japanese leaders opted not to comment on the internal U.S. political situation but emphasized the importance of continued collaboration with the White House. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida noted, “I recognize that President Biden’s decision is based on his desire to make the best possible political decision. The Japan-US alliance is the cornerstone of our nation’s diplomatic security, and we will continue to monitor it closely.”

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s office stated that they will “continue to work closely with the US to further develop the South Korea-US global comprehensive strategic alliance.”

Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. described Biden’s withdrawal as a sign of “genuine statesmanship” and thanked him for his unwavering support for the Philippines amid a challenging period. “We thank him for his constant and unwavering support for the Philippines in a delicate and difficult time,” Marcos wrote on X. The Philippines, a treaty ally of the U.S., has faced increasing tensions with Chinese vessels in the South China Sea.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping had not issued an official statement by Monday morning. However, “Biden dropping out of the election” was the leading topic on Weibo, China’s equivalent to X, with related discussions, including those about Kamala Harris and Trump’s assassination attempt, accumulating over 400 million views.

Chinese social media users speculated eagerly about the prospect of a female U.S. president while others believed Trump would win regardless of the Democratic candidate. One Weibo user remarked, “The shot was definitely a good deal for Trump!” Another user observed, “That one shot didn’t kill Trump but dropped Biden,” with another describing the U.S. political situation as “a total mess.”

Biden Ends Reelection Bid, Endorses Harris as Successor Amid Growing Concerns Over His Fitness

US President Joe Biden concluded his reelection bid on Sunday after growing skepticism among Democrats about his mental sharpness and his ability to defeat Donald Trump, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor.

In a statement on X, Biden, 81, announced that he will continue serving as President and Commander-in-Chief until his term concludes in January 2025. He also plans to address the nation later this week.

Biden expressed, “It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President. And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.”

Initially, Biden’s statement did not include an endorsement for Harris. However, shortly after, he expressed his support for her, stating, “My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best…”

Harris, 59, would make history as the first Black woman to head a major party’s presidential ticket. The potential challenge she may face is whether other prominent Democrats will vie for the nomination, or if the party will opt to open the field for new contenders.

Biden’s decision comes after increasing pressure from Democratic leaders and lawmakers, spurred by his underwhelming performance in a June 27 debate against Trump, 78. His struggles to articulate clear sentences overshadowed Trump’s falsehoods and shifted focus onto Biden’s suitability for another term.

Biden’s interview shortly after the debate, where he dismissed concerns and stated he would be content losing to Trump if he felt he had given his all, did little to quell apprehensions. His gaffes at a NATO summit, where he confused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy with Russian President Vladimir Putin and mistakenly referred to Harris as “Vice President Trump,” only heightened fears.

Adding to the turmoil, Biden was diagnosed with COVID-19 for a third time just days before his announcement, leading to a shortened campaign trip to Las Vegas. Over 10% of congressional Democrats publicly urged him to withdraw.

Biden’s resignation from the reelection race is unprecedented for a sitting president since Lyndon Johnson in March 1968, leaving his replacement with under four months to campaign.

Should Harris be nominated, it would represent a significant risk for the Democratic Party: presenting its first Black and Asian American woman as a candidate in a nation with a history of electing one Black president and no women presidents over more than two centuries.

Biden, who was the oldest president ever elected when he defeated Trump in 2020, had positioned himself as a transitional figure to usher in a new generation of Democratic leadership. This led to some speculation that he would serve only one term. Nevertheless, he pursued a second term, believing he was the Democrats’ best chance to defeat Trump once more amid doubts about Harris’s experience and popularity. However, Biden’s age became increasingly evident, with his gait appearing unsteady and his childhood stutter occasionally resurfacing.

His team had hoped that a strong performance in the June 27 debate would address age-related concerns, but it only exacerbated them. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted post-debate revealed that around 40% of Democrats believed he should exit the race.

Donors began withdrawing support, and Harris’s backers began to consolidate. Key Democrats, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, advised Biden that he could not win the election.

Despite initially resisting calls to step down, Biden engaged in damage control through calls, meetings with lawmakers, and rare TV interviews, but it was insufficient. Polls indicated Trump’s lead was expanding in crucial battleground states, leading to fears of a potential Democratic defeat in the House and Senate. On July 17, California Representative Adam Schiff called for Biden to withdraw.

Biden’s departure sets the stage for a significant contrast between the Democrats’ likely new nominee, Harris—a former prosecutor—and Trump, who at 78 is two decades older and faces multiple criminal charges related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump is scheduled to be sentenced in September in New York for trying to cover up a hush-money payment.

Earlier this year, Biden secured the Democratic nomination for president with little opposition despite concerns about his age. However, his unwavering support for Israel’s military actions in Gaza alienated some party members, particularly younger, progressive Democrats and voters of color.

Many Black voters felt Biden had not sufficiently addressed their needs, and overall enthusiasm for a second Biden term was low. Prior to the debate with Trump, Biden was trailing in some national polls and in key battleground states necessary for a victory on November 5.

Harris had been tasked with reaching out to these voters in recent months.

During the Democratic primary, Biden accumulated over 3,600 delegates for the convention in Chicago, surpassing the 1,976 needed to secure the nomination. If the Democratic Party does not alter its rules, delegates pledged to Biden will enter the convention “uncommitted,” thus allowing them to vote for his successor.

The party also has “superdelegates,” influential senior officials and elected leaders whose support, although limited on the first ballot, could become decisive in subsequent rounds.

In 2020, Biden triumphed over Trump by securing pivotal battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia, and won the popular vote by over 7 million votes, capturing 51.3% compared to Trump’s 46.8%.

Democrats Face Historic Decision: Kamala Harris as Presidential Candidate Amid Challenges of Race and Gender

The Democratic Party faces a historic decision if it turns to Vice President Kamala Harris as its presidential candidate, navigating a complex landscape of racism, sexism, and her past political challenges in an attempt to defeat Republican Donald Trump.

President Joe Biden, 81, declared on Sunday that he would end his campaign for reelection but remain in office for the remainder of his term. Concurrently, he endorsed Harris in a post on X, formerly Twitter. Biden stated, “My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made,” and continued, “Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year.”

This decision follows mounting pressure from Democratic lawmakers and donors who questioned Biden’s ability to endure another four-year term due to concerns about his mental and physical stamina.

In over two centuries of American democracy, the electorate has chosen only one Black president and never a woman, raising questions even among some Black voters about whether Harris can shatter these enduring barriers. LaTosha Brown, a political strategist and co-founder of the Black Voters Matter Fund, acknowledged this challenge, saying, “Will her race and gender be an issue? Absolutely.”

Harris would face significant obstacles if promoted to the top of the ticket. With less than three months to campaign, she must unite the party and secure financial support. Despite these hurdles, many Democrats view her potential candidacy with optimism. At 59, Harris is notably younger than Trump and stands out as a leader in the party on abortion rights, an issue that resonates with younger voters and the progressive base. Advocates believe her candidacy would energize these voters, consolidate Black support, and leverage her strong debating skills to challenge Trump effectively. Brown pointed out, “That to me is reflective of America’s past. She is reflective of America’s now and future,” contrasting Harris’s candidacy with Trump and his vice presidential running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, both of whom are white.

Nonetheless, Harris’s initial years in office and brief 2020 campaign for the Democratic nomination have left some Democrats apprehensive. There are concerns about her ability to overcome the historical baggage of racial and gender discrimination in the U.S.

In a July 15-16 Reuters/Ipsos poll, Harris and Trump were tied at 44% support each, following an assassination attempt against Trump. In the same poll, Trump led Biden 43% to 41%, within the margin of error. Harris’s approval ratings are slightly higher than Biden’s, with 38.6% of Americans approving of her compared to 50.4% disapproving, whereas Biden has 38.5% approval and 56.2% disapproval.

Representative Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, a Biden supporter, expressed skepticism about Harris’s potential support, stating on Instagram, “If you think that there is consensus among the people who want Joe Biden to leave that they will support Kamala – Vice President Harris – you would be mistaken. There’s no safe option.”

Barack Obama remains the only Black president elected in the U.S., and Hillary Clinton was the sole woman to lead a major party’s presidential ticket, losing to Trump in 2016. Harris, the first woman and the first Black and South Asian person to serve as vice president, has faced and weathered unfair attacks related to her race and gender, according to her supporters. Jamal Simmons, a former aide to Harris, noted, “America has a history of racism, sexism, so I’m sure that will factor into this conversation, factor into her campaign,” adding that there is potential for Black voters and women to rally behind her candidacy, benefiting from her race and gender.

Harris has greater name recognition compared to other potential Democratic candidates, such as California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Simmons argued, “While she has flaws and faults like everyone, we know those flaws and faults, so you can build a campaign with clarity. Any other candidates are complete unknowns.”

A former Democratic lawmaker, who spoke anonymously, viewed Harris as a bigger risk due to her record rather than her race, citing early staff turnover and limited progress on key issues. The former lawmaker remarked, “I think the race thing is just a compounding factor or an exacerbating factor,” expressing a preference for another candidate despite recognizing the risks.

Critics have accused Trump of employing racist and sexist rhetoric. In 2020, he claimed Harris, a U.S. citizen born in California, did not qualify to be a vice presidential candidate. At a recent rally in Michigan, Trump derided Harris’s mannerisms, calling her “Laughing Kamala” and criticizing her laugh as “crazy.” Trump’s campaign dismissed these criticisms as “classic disinformation” and highlighted Trump’s strong polling among African Americans, according to senior adviser Jason Miller.

Trump’s previous “birtherism” claims against Obama, which falsely questioned his birthplace, garnered significant traction among far-right activists and his nationalist base. Cliff Albright, co-founder and CEO of Black Voters Matter Fund, referred to this pattern as “birtherism 2.0” regarding Harris. Nadia Brown, director of the women’s and gender studies program at Georgetown University, emphasized the persistence of reluctance to accept women, particularly Black women, in prominent leadership roles, stating, “Patriarchy is a hell of a drug.”

Despite these challenges, Harris’s standing within the party has improved due to her vocal defense of reproductive rights following the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Biden credited her efforts with helping to avert a significant Republican wave in the midterm elections, and Harris has actively campaigned on abortion rights.

Harris could potentially inherit Biden’s strong support among Black voters, who were crucial to his 2020 nomination. However, if the Democratic Party coalesces around her, she may face criticism from voters who believe the party concealed Biden’s weaknesses. Gina Gannon, a 65-year-old retiree from Georgia who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, expressed dissatisfaction, saying, “I’m kind of done with the Democrats. So many knew about Biden’s condition and hid it. Kamala was part of that.”

Democrats Question Harris’s Viability as Potential Biden Successor Amid Growing Concerns

President Joe Biden’s potential departure as the Democratic presidential nominee doesn’t guarantee Vice President Kamala Harris will succeed him. While Harris has been Biden’s political heir since 2020, doubts persist about her viability as a presidential candidate. Concerns that hindered her initial White House bid and her vice presidency continue to affect her chances.

Social media is rife with clips of Harris’s awkward sound bites, and while some Democrats praise her efforts on abortion rights, Republicans are poised to scrutinize her work on the southern border. Despite the growing calls for Biden to step down, many Democratic officials and donors question the wisdom of endorsing Harris as his replacement. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez emphasized this sentiment, stating, “If you think there is a consensus among the people who want Joe Biden to leave, that they would support Vice President Harris, you would be mistaken. They’re interested in removing the whole ticket.”

The central issue for Democrats is identifying a candidate who can effectively challenge former President Donald Trump and maximize success in the House and Senate. Harris’s polling isn’t significantly better than Biden’s. An NBC News poll showed Trump leading both Biden and Harris by a two-point margin, reflecting Harris’s uncertain political viability.

John Morgan, a Democratic megadonor, warned against hastily supporting Harris, stating, “Be careful what you wish for.” He expressed concerns that Harris might come across as inauthentic, a sentiment echoed by many fundraisers and donors who are looking to back a winning candidate.

Proponents of Harris argue her numbers could improve with a formal campaign, bolstered by Biden-Harris campaign funds. She shows strength among Black voters, according to a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, and has focused on outreach to younger voters. However, being a Black woman in politics poses additional challenges due to sexism and racism. At 59, Harris could address concerns about the party leader’s age, contrasting with the 78-year-old GOP nominee.

Aimee Allison, founder of She the People, highlighted Harris’s past success, stating, “I’ve heard it this week, it’s a perennial thing — ‘Can she win?’ I say, ‘Yes, she already has.’” Allison criticized the persistent underestimation of Harris, which she believes is a common issue for Black women in politics.

Some Democrats fear darker outcomes, particularly after an assassination attempt on Trump. Renay Grace Rodriguez, president of the Los Angeles Stonewall Democratic Club, expressed concern, “If Biden steps down, she should be the one to receive the delegates. But I also know how this country behaves toward women and women of color, and I worry for her that there would be a bullet that would not miss.”

Harris’s failed 2020 presidential run looms large, affecting current perceptions of her prospects. Despite her rapid rise through California politics, her presidential campaign struggled with unclear ideology and inconsistent positions, notably on single-payer health care. Her campaign also faced internal issues, lacking a clear strategy and leadership, leading to her early exit from the race.

This history has created skepticism among voters and donors. As one House Democrat noted, “‘Kamala, eh that’s not good. In the primary four years ago, she didn’t last very long.’” A spokesperson for Harris defended her record, emphasizing her dedication to working with Biden.

Harris has faced challenges with staff turnover in every office she’s held, and her vice presidency has been no different. Issues with her first chief of staff and a dysfunctional office environment strained her relationship with the White House. Persistent leaks and complaints about mismanagement have marred her tenure, though improvements were noted with the appointment of a new chief of staff, Lorraine Voles.

Harris’s relationship with Biden’s inner circle has been rocky since her 2020 primary debate jab at Biden. Despite initial reservations, Biden’s political advisers, including future White House chief of staff Ron Klain, supported her as a valuable addition to the ticket. However, lingering doubts from senior aides and Biden’s family have persisted.

Harris’s role as vice president has involved taking on politically fraught tasks, such as immigration. Despite her objections, she was tasked with addressing the root causes of migration from Central America, leading to GOP attacks labeling her the “border czar.” However, the fall of Roe v. Wade allowed Harris to pivot to a position of strength as the administration’s point person on abortion rights.

Harris’s efforts on abortion rights, particularly ahead of the 2022 midterms, helped ease tensions with the White House. She has become a key figure in Biden’s reelection bid, focusing on reproductive health. Christina Reynolds, senior vice president of EMILY’s List, praised Harris, saying, “She’s a terrific messenger on the issue that we believe is going to win Democrats this election, which is abortion.”

Harris’s prosecutorial skills have been a strength, as seen in her prominent Senate Judiciary Committee exchanges. These skills have become a key part of her appeal, especially in contrast to Biden’s debate performance against Trump. With Biden’s effectiveness in question, Harris’s sharp attacks on Trump have garnered attention from Democrats looking for a candidate who can change the dynamics of the race.

Harris’s ability to unite the party remains uncertain. While female Democratic donors and organizations are preparing to support her candidacy, Harris would need to win over constituencies that Biden successfully united in 2020. Her lack of longstanding congressional relationships is a disadvantage compared to Biden.

Ocasio-Cortez’s comments highlight the divide within the party, with many progressives, including the liberal House “squad” and Sen. Bernie Sanders, continuing to support Biden. However, Harris has been more willing to call for restraint from Israel in the conflict with Hamas, a stance that may appeal to progressives.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren broke from the progressive camp, stating, “Biden is our nominee … Harris is ready to serve.” Harris’s role as the White House messenger on abortion rights has been a significant aspect of her tenure, and her ability to connect the fight for abortion rights with broader issues of freedom has resonated within the party. As Democrats contemplate their future leadership, Harris’s ability to unify the party and address its diverse needs remains a critical question.

GOP Convention Ends with Spectacle, Little Change in Tight Biden-Trump Race

The Republican National Convention was a spectacle featuring top lawmakers, emerging stars, and famous entertainers, including a former president who had survived an assassination attempt just days earlier. Media outlets heavily covered the event, deploying numerous journalists. Despite the fanfare, the race for the White House remains largely unchanged from when Republicans first gathered in Milwaukee.

President Joe Biden’s campaign continues to struggle amid calls for him to drop out, exacerbated by his disastrous debate performance last month. Donald Trump, who had promised a more unifying tone after surviving the assassination attempt, ultimately delivered a speech that mixed details of the shooting with his usual complaints about immigration, his 2020 election loss, and other grievances.

“Given the extraordinary, recent events, something as conventionalized as a convention may not move the needle, but Trump went into the convention with a lead and emerges with a lead, so they don’t need it to,” said Doug Heye, a GOP strategist and former top Republican National Committee official.

The race has already been influenced by significant events. Biden’s debate performance was historically poor, and Trump became one of the few federal political candidates injured in an assassination attempt. Polls suggested Trump received a bump after June’s debate, but it’s unclear how the shooting has affected the race due to a lack of recent public surveys.

Strategists from both parties agree that significant historical events would be required to shift the race. Both Biden and Trump have been in the public eye for decades and have served in the highest-profile political position in the world. Voter opinions are largely established, making it difficult for any single event to cause significant polling fluctuations.

There has been considerable noise along the way. Besides the convention and Trump’s selection of Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate, Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts, Biden’s son was convicted on felony gun charges, and protests erupted over the war in Gaza, among other events. Despite this, polls have remained relatively stable.

“I think that this race at this point is so dug in, it takes what are akin to earthquakes to change anything,” said Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist and former Senate aide.

There was widespread speculation that the Republican convention would make a significant impact. Trump was set to announce his vice-presidential pick, a process that had garnered intense political and media attention, and his ear was still bandaged less than 48 hours after the assassination attempt.

Beyond the political maneuvering, the event featured notable entertainment. Lee Greenwood repeatedly sang “God Bless the USA,” conservative media personality Tucker Carlson gave an impromptu speech, and wrestler Hulk Hogan tore off his shirt to reveal a Trump-Vance tank top.

Trump’s keynote address on Thursday night began with harrowing details of the assassination attempt before shifting to his usual rhetoric. He criticized the “invasion” at the southern border, called former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi “crazy,” and accused his political opponents of “cheating on elections.” Despite earlier promises to avoid mentioning Biden by name, Trump couldn’t resist.

“If you took the ten worst presidents in the history of the United States, think of it, the ten worst, added them up, they will not have done the damage that Biden has done. Only going to use the term once, Biden. I’m not going to use the name anymore, just one time. The damage that he’s done to this country is unthinkable,” Trump said.

These remarks indicate that Trump’s campaign remains largely unchanged, continuing to employ the same rhetoric that has characterized his campaign for months.

“I didn’t think it made a difference. If you watch that convention, you already got your mind made up,” said Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist who worked on Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign. “The shooting probably had a bigger impact. But most of America has made up its mind.”

Despite this, the convention’s outcome is not entirely without significance. Some Democrats felt relieved that Trump’s remarks didn’t solely focus on unity, arguing that such a focus could have widened the gap between him and Biden in the polls, even though they acknowledged that the president likely trails currently.

“Overall, it doesn’t change anything, but they missed an opportunity to put this out of reach,” said a former senior Trump administration official about Trump’s speech.

“No, I don’t think the convention changed the fundamentals,” added a source familiar with the Biden campaign’s strategy. “A less MAGA VP pick and a more unifying message from Trump may have, but they opted to double down on MAGA and division.”

JD Vance’s Family Faces Anti-Asian Backlash Amidst Rising Racial Tensions in Political Climate

Usha Chilukuri Vance, the wife of Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance, and their children have faced backlash due to their Indian heritage. Chilukuri Vance, whose parents are Indian immigrants, and RNC speaker Harmeet Dhillon, a Sikh of Indian descent, are being targeted with anti-Asian hate from far-right individuals online. This surge in hateful posts, following Vance’s nomination, criticizes his interracial marriage and expresses fears about increased Indian immigration, citing the “Great Replacement” conspiracy theory. These posts have garnered hundreds of thousands of views according to engagement figures.

Stop AAPI Hate, an advocacy group tracking anti-Asian hate incidents, condemned the attacks. The group stated that the wave of hate has exacerbated the “heightened levels of fear and anxiety Asian Americans and immigrants are currently experiencing across the country leading up to this year’s presidential election.” They further noted, “In the midst of an inflamed political climate, we continue to see the targeting of South Asians across parties, including ongoing questioning of VP Kamala Harris’ electability.”

Since 2020, Stop AAPI Hate has recorded thousands of potential hate-motivated incidents, coinciding with the rise in anti-Asian sentiment at the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

The backlash against the Vance family occurs as former President Donald Trump called for national unity following an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally last weekend. Trump remarked, “The discord and division in our society must be healed. We must heal it quickly. As Americans, we are bound together by a single fate and a shared destiny. We rise together. Or we fall apart,” during his speech on the final day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

This call for unity contrasts sharply with Trump’s usual rhetoric, often criticized as “inflammatory” and “divisive,” particularly regarding race and immigration. However, Trump quickly reverted to his typical stance, declaring, “The greatest invasion in history is taking place right here in our country,” referring to undocumented migrants at the U.S. border.

Despite this assertion, newly released figures from the CBP show a continuous decline in encounters at the southern border for the fourth consecutive month. Trump continued, “They are coming in from every corner of the Earth, not just from South America, but from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East — they’re coming from everywhere, and this administration does nothing to stop them.”

In contrast, the CBP reports that recent measures, including President Biden’s June 4 executive order limiting asylum access between ports of entry, have led to a more than 50% reduction in border encounters over the past six weeks.

JD Vance has previously criticized Trump and his supporters for their racial rhetoric, which forms the backdrop of the current backlash against his wife and children. In a 2016 interview with POLITICO, Vance remarked, “the Trump people are certainly more racist than the average white professional,” warning that Trump’s rhetoric would cause white people to “become more racist over time.”

Vance also stated in a 2016 PBS Newshour interview, “there is definitely an element of Donald Trump’s support that has its basis in racism or xenophobia.”

Originally a “Never Trump guy,” Vance has since changed his stance, citing Trump’s “many successes in office.” He has now joined Trump on the Republican ticket for the upcoming presidential election in November. Vance’s alignment with Trump began around 2021, when he started praising Trump’s presidency and apologizing for his past criticisms. Last month, Vance told Fox News anchor Bret Baier, “Look, I was wrong about Donald Trump. I didn’t think he was going to be a good president, Bret. He was a great president, and it’s one of the reasons why I’m working so hard to make sure he gets a second term.”

Joe Biden Drops Out Of 2024 Presidential Race

President Biden announced on Sunday, July 21st that he is dropping out of the 2024 presidential race, a seismic event that will leave Democrats scrambling to select his replacement just weeks before their convention.
“While it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for my term,” Mr. Biden posted in a statement on social media.

The president’s historic withdrawal throws the 2024 race − already roiled by a shocking attempt on Trump’s life − into uncertain territory, with Vice President Kamala Harris seen as the Democrat best placed to take Biden’s place atop the party’s ticket.

Biden made the announcement from his home in Rehoboth Beach, Del., where he’s self-isolated since testing positive for COVID-19 Thursday night.

“It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President,” Biden said in a written statement. ” Biden did not immediately endorse a successor. He said he would speak to the nation later this week to provide more detail about his decision.

It marks an extraordinary turn for Biden, who for three weeks remained defiant in the face of growing calls from Democratic lawmakers that he withdraw after a disastrous June 27 debate with Trump raised scrutiny over the president’s mental fitness.

Biden’s exit came after he received bleak warnings from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries that his candidacy could lead to massive losses for Democrats in the Senate and House.

More than 30 congressional Democrats called for Biden to bow out, and former President Barack Obama reportedly relayed similar fears to Democratic allies about Biden’s prospects of beating Trump. Democratic donors from Hollywood to Wall Street also came out against Biden continuing his reelection bid.

Former President Donald Trump, who was officially nominated by the Republican party on Thursday night, told CNN after the decision that Mr. Biden is the “worst president by far in the history of our country,” but he said that he thought if Vice President Kamala Harris is the nominee, she would be easier to beat than Mr. Biden.

Before winning the White House in 2020, Mr. Biden called himself a “bridge” to a new “generation of leaders,” causing many to wonder if he would only serve one term. In the aftermath of the debate, he explained that his thinking had changed, and the divisiveness in the country led him to believe only he could defeat Trump.

In the weeks since the debate, the president tried to push back, insisting in a series of public appearances and meetings with Democratic elected officials that he was committed to staying in the race. “I’m not going anywhere,” he vowed. But even longtime allies began to urge him to change course.

The pressure eventually became insurmountable, with top Democrats in Congress telling Mr. Biden that he should step aside and allow a replacement to face off against Trump in November.

The decision upends the 2024 election less than 110 days before Election Day, with Democratic National Committee members now tasked with choosing an alternative nominee to take on Trump, whose polling lead has swelled while Democrats have fought internally.

Vice President Harris is now the frontrunner to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee, but the party’s bench of Democratic governors could also be in the mix including Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Gavin Newsom of California.

Biden becomes the first incumbent president not to seek reelection since Lyndon B. Johnson who, in 1968 amid national unrest and turmoil within the Democratic Party over the Vietnam War, stunned the nation with his decision not to seek a second full term.

Biden Faces Mounting Pressure to Abandon 2024 Reelection Bid Amid Isolation and Internal Dissent

President Joe Biden finds himself more isolated than ever, with senior White House and campaign officials privately urging him to drop his bid for a second term soon.

“The next 72 hours are big,” a Democratic governor closely connected to party officials told aides on Thursday. “This can’t go on much longer.”

In interviews with CNN, over two dozen sources close to the West Wing and campaign dynamics said there’s a widespread belief that Biden staying in the 2024 race is untenable. “Everyone is saying it privately,” a senior Democrat said. “People see and feel the walls closing in.”

A top Democrat close to the White House noted Biden has become “exceptionally insulated and isolated” since the CNN presidential debate on June 27. Multiple sources said some of Biden’s senior advisers – including Anita Dunn, attorney Bob Bauer, and campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon – faced backlash from Biden’s family post-debate.

This situation has made Biden’s inner circle of advisers even smaller and more impenetrable. Three weeks after his poor debate performance, only a few of his closest aides – like longtime advisers Mike Donilon and Steve Ricchetti – and family members remain firmly by his side. This tight circle has alarmed many Democrats who question if Biden is receiving accurate information about his campaign’s dire situation.

Deputy White House chief of staff Annie Tomasini, another long-time Biden aide, joins Donilon and Ricchetti in forming a protective bubble around the president. Anthony Bernal, Jill Biden’s chief of staff, has become more influential during this crisis, suppressing dissent and reporting naysayers to the First Lady. Tomasini, however, reportedly does not decide who the president interacts with.

Ricchetti is more realistic about Biden’s challenges, two insiders said, as he remains the primary contact for lawmakers trying to communicate with the president. Despite growing speculation about Biden’s future, senior West Wing advisers told CNN on Thursday night that they haven’t discussed Biden dropping out of the race with him.

White House spokesperson Andrew Bates stated that Biden is “proud of the well-rounded team he has built.” He added, “He has not made changes to the group of advisers he consults, who he trusts because they’ve demonstrated the integrity to tell the truth and keep the wellbeing of the American people front of mind.”

Campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz echoed a positive outlook, saying, “Here in HQ, we’re working really hard because on winning campaigns, you work really hard. There’s an immense sense of pride across our office, because we know how important and critical that work we are doing here is for the fate of our democracy.”

Sources told CNN that Biden’s response to unfavorable polls has been to question if anyone else would do better. Meetings and calls with anyone who might bring bad news seem to have stopped. “The phones just kind of stopped ringing,” a senior Democrat said.

A tense recent conversation between Biden and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi highlighted this disconnect. Disagreeing over polling data, Pelosi asked for Donilon, a former pollster, to join the call to discuss the data. Pelosi’s spokesperson said the “feeding frenzy from the press based on anonymous sources misrepresents any conversations the speaker may have had with the president.”

“He doesn’t want to hear from anyone. He wants to hear from Mike Donilon and Steve,” a top Democrat close to the White House said.

One insider claimed that Donilon and Ricchetti have presented various views to Biden, who has been directly speaking with many party officials for feedback. In a meeting with top House Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, Biden fiercely contested the idea that his colleagues wanted him to step aside.

On Capitol Hill, some Democratic lawmakers have begun to voice their concerns publicly. So far, 20 House Democrats have called on Biden to drop out. Meanwhile, White House and campaign aides continue their work, with many feeling deep despair.

“There are a lot of people who tell themselves – it is my job to do this,” one Democrat close to the White House said. “But privately, they feel differently.”

Biden’s deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks said Thursday the campaign is “not working through any scenarios” where Biden isn’t the presidential nominee. “Our campaign is not working through any scenarios where President Biden is not the top of the ticket. He is and will be the Democratic nominee,” he said during a DNC news conference in Milwaukee.

Biden’s debate performance and the subsequent decline in his campaign have caused significant discontent within the White House. Officials have questioned the motives of Biden’s advisers – whether they are sticking to their course due to a misreading of the situation or a desire to maintain their proximity to power.

“This decision is not just about Biden,” a former aide who worked with Biden for decades told CNN. “There are other senior advisers who are considering whether they played the right role in this.”

Frustration with Biden’s advisers is widespread, with staff grappling with a lack of information and decisions about their professional futures. “Staff in general are just over the leadership here,” a White House official said.

Former administration officials have noted an increase in resumes from colleagues seeking exit plans in the private sector.

As Biden spent Thursday out of sight, recovering from Covid-19 at his beach house in Delaware, those who spoke with him described him as “receptive” to arguments for stepping away from his reelection bid. A senior Democratic adviser told CNN that Biden is in a “contemplative stage” as he isolates in Rehoboth Beach. A source familiar with Biden’s mindset said he is “thinking things through” and “deliberating” on his reelection campaign. Privately, Biden has acknowledged to others the limited path forward given the unfavorable data.

This source indicated that any announcement is unlikely before the weekend and warned that anyone claiming to know Biden’s plans does not truly know.

This uncertainty frustrates many Democrats who wonder if Biden has made any new decisions about his future. If he does step aside, a series of events will unfold that officials need time to prepare for.

Inside the White House, senior officials are bracing for Republican calls for Biden to resign if he doesn’t seek reelection, adding to the complexities surrounding his decision.

As Biden’s political future hangs in the balance, the White House is receiving letters, calls, and messages from Americans, including Democratic voters like Terri and John Hale. “It’s with utmost respect that we offer this conclusion – you cannot win this race,” the Hales, retirees from Ankeny, Iowa, wrote in a letter to the White House obtained by CNN. “Not because you are not the better man, but because the public – rightly or wrongly – now sees your age and perceived limitations as the main issue in the campaign.”

Republicans Show Unity and Momentum Amidst Democratic Infighting and Biden’s COVID-19 Struggles

Republicans find themselves in an unusual yet favorable position: they are united and focused, while Democrats are grappling with significant internal disagreements. This contrast has been particularly evident this week, with Republicans gathering in Wisconsin, fully supporting former President Trump’s candidacy, while Democrats are publicly debating whether President Biden should remain their candidate in November.

On Tuesday, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, both primary rivals of Trump, took to the stage, urging Republicans to rally behind Trump. Meanwhile, Biden tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer reportedly advising him to step aside.

This unity among Republicans is a stark contrast to the 2016 convention when Senator Ted Cruz urged delegates to vote their conscience, leading to a divided party and an anticipated loss to Hillary Clinton. Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson noted, “I think they learned something” from Cruz’s non-endorsement in 2016. Senator Kevin Cramer commented on this year’s convention, describing it as “flawlessly executed” and highlighting the significant growth and unity within the party.

Republicans couldn’t have hoped for better circumstances as they convened in Wisconsin. Trump survived an assassination attempt on Saturday, which invigorated his supporters. A federal judge dismissed a major criminal case against him on Monday, and he announced Senator JD Vance as his running mate, further energizing the party. In contrast, Biden canceled a Monday event after the shooting at Trump’s rally, and Representative Adam Schiff called for him to “pass the torch” on Wednesday, leading to Biden canceling a rally with Latino leaders due to his COVID-19 diagnosis.

The Republican party has often been in turmoil since Trump announced his candidacy in 2015. Despite polling predictions that Trump would lose to Clinton in 2016 and numerous Republicans distancing themselves from him after the “Access Hollywood” tape release, the party has now found itself in a rare state of cohesion. Trump’s presidency saw GOP lawmakers struggling to align with his statements and fulfill long-held promises like repealing the Affordable Care Act. House Republicans have faced internal conflicts over the past 18 months, struggling to elect a Speaker and dealing with repeated pushback from the right flank of the conference.

This week’s convention, however, has had a different atmosphere, with the party galvanized by recent events and the assassination attempt. Senator Cramer remarked, “There’s no comparison, and probably never will be again in history, to the emotion of this week that started with Saturday and started with the episode in Butler, Pa., that our standard-bearer was within a millimeter or two of death, and is now with us. That has given such wind in our sails, it’s hard to almost describe.”

Throughout the week, Republicans have remained on message. Haley, once Trump’s main rival, expressed her “strong” support for him. Almost every speaker praised Trump as a strong leader or criticized Biden’s policies on the border, inflation, and foreign affairs, or questioned his ability to serve another term. Former critics of Trump, such as Senators Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and JD Vance, gave some of the most notable speeches in support of him.

Polling shows Trump leading Biden by a narrow margin. By comparison, Trump was trailing Clinton by 2 percentage points nationally at the end of the 2016 GOP convention. However, party leaders emphasize that victory is not guaranteed with more than three months until Election Day. They point to Trump’s unexpected win in 2016 as a reminder that the race can shift dramatically in the Democrats’ favor.

Republican National Committee co-Chair Lara Trump echoed this sentiment, saying, “You can never take anything for granted. I mean, look, you look at the polling from 2016 and it would have suggested that Donald Trump should have never had a shot at becoming president. And we all know how that turned out.”

She added, “So, look, we feel like we have the wind in our sails. We feel a lot of momentum as a party right now. This is a great environment. There’s a lot of energy, but we have to play the game up until the buzzer sounds the last second of that game on Nov. 5.”

Donald Trump Accepts  Republican Party’s Presidential Nomination, As He Tramples Party Efforts To Remake His Image

Donald Trump, somber and bandaged, accepted the presidential nomination on Thursday, July 18th, 2024 at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, WI, with a speech that described in detail the assassination attempt that could have ended his life just five days earlier, and laid out a sweeping populist agenda in, particularly on immigration.

In a speech that lasted over an  hour and a half, Trump closed out an emotionally charged convention with an appeal for the country to heal “discord and division” days after he was injured in an assassination attempt — even as he mocked and attacked his opponents.,

Trump made sweeping promises to end inflation and secure the border, but he didn’t outline any plans and mostly used crowd-pleasing talking points. The most specific he got was promising to roll back Biden administration efforts to combat climate change, redirect infrastructure spending and impose steep tariffs.

During the first four nights of the convention, speakers attempted to give Donald Trump, one of the most divisive politicians in recent U.S. history a makeover, describing him as a loving and caring family man whose near-assassination at a rally on Saturday had changed him.

Early in his speech , as he accepted his party’s presidential nomination at the Republican National Convention, it seemed Trump had bought into the carefully orchestrated effort to repackage him as a humbler, unifying figure, more palatable to swing voters who will be crucial to winning the Nov. 5 election.

He said he wanted to be a president for all Americans, including Democrats, and wanted to heal the divided country. “In an age when our politics too often divide us, now is the time to remember that we are all fellow citizens,” Trump said.That new version of Trump lasted barely half an hour.

Then the Trump more familiar to Americans – the bombastic thrower of insults who revels in demonizing his opponents – re-emerged, trampling over the message of unity so painstakingly choreographed by the Republican National Committee this week.

In a rambling 92-minute address that broke the record for the longest convention speech in history, Trump called Democratic President Joe Biden the worst president in U.S. history and the former Democratic House Speaker “crazy Nancy Pelosi,” and accused Democrats of launching judicial witch hunts against him and creating a “planet of war.”

“The Democrat Party should immediately stop weaponizing the justice system and labeling their political opponent as an enemy of democracy, especially since that is not true,” Trump said. “In fact, I am the one saving democracy for the people of our country,” he said.

Using familiar hyperbolic and divisive language, he said illegal immigration to the United States was “the greatest invasion in history” and was leading to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans every year, though neither claim is supported by any data.

He again promised to curb illegal immigration, vowing the “largest deportation operation in the history of our country”, and said he would “end every single international crisis that the current administration has created”.

Trump also said he would create a version of Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system, and pledged to restore “peace, stability and harmony all throughout the world” – though he gave few details on how.

He painted a dark picture of a crumbling America, a nation in decline, its cities crime-ridden and economically depressed, a staple image of his stump speech in which he presents himself as the country’s savior.

In his debut speech in the role, that man – 39-year-old Ohio Senator JD Vance – told the convention that he was a “working-class” boy, and insisted that Trump’s policies would help left-behind voters.

Among the others who made notable appearances at the convention were Mr Vance’s wife Usha, as well as Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara and his teenage granddaughter Kai, who gave her first public remarks.

And Trump’s former rivals for the Republican nomination, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, came together to voice their support for him.

Their message of party solidarity was echoed in Thursday’s speech by Trump, who also spoke of working for “all of America” if he won back the White House.

The evening concluded with thousands of balloons falling to the stadium floor and with two prominent figures in the Trump family making rare appearances on the campaign trail. Former first lady Melania Trump made her first public appearance alongside her husband in months when she entered the arena ahead of the former president’s remarks. She later joined him on stage at the conclusion of his speech.

Trump had pledged to re-write his address in the wake of the attack, after which he had what he called a “very cordial” conversation with Mr Biden. The finished item was critical of the current president’s policies, although he spoke his adversary’s name only once during his range of attacks.

Observers said his speech was relatively subdued, in spite of the overall bombast of the evening, which included a shower of balloons and a crowd-rallying appearance from wrestling legend Hulk Hogan.

“We had been told this was going to be a different Trump, a softer side,” Mary Anna Mancuso, a Republican strategist and Trump critic, said afterward. “Trump’s speech was not about unifying the nation. It was the same Trump that we’ve seen and there was no difference.”

New York City Mayor Eric Adams Inaugurates AAPI’s 1st Ever World Health Congress

New York City Mayor Eric Adams inaugurated the first ever World Health Congress of Physicians, a Maga Convention of physicians of Indian Origin with the cutting of the Ribbon and a powerful and memorable inaugural address at the Marriott Marquis on Times Square in New York City on July 18th, 2024.

20240718 125536In his brief inaugural address, Adams lauded the contributions of Indian American physicians across the United States, especially during the Covid pandemic. “When you look at the 1000s of physicians across the country, you walk into any hospital, the emergency rooms, especially during COVID, you were present. You were there, and you sacrificed your own health to make sure of the health of this entire country. Your contributions are so rare.”

Recalling his past visit to India, Mayor Adams said, “When I was in India, the home of Gandhi and I saw the steps, his last few steps that he took, before the assassin took his life. It is our obligation and responsibility, no matter what field we are in, to ensure that we live out the dreams of Gandhi and we live out the dreams of those steps,” Adams said. “As we mark, the image of unity here, throughout the United States of America, we believe in the fundamentals and the foundation for the family. You believe in public service, and you believe in our children, and you are a real partner in doing so,” Mayor Adam told Indian American physicians.

“I want to extent a very warm welcome to AAPI delegates from around the world to first ever World Congress of Physicians, being held here from July 18th-22, 2024 in New York City, organized by the American Association of Physicians of Indian origin (AAPI) at the prestigious Marriott Marquis on Times Square, at the heart of the most popular city in the world,” Dr. Anjana Samadder, President of AAPI said in her welcome address.

Sri Brahmrishi SiddhGuru Gurudev, embodying compassion, love, humility, and simplicity, adhering to ancient Indian spiritual practices, while bestowing his blessings on the organizers and the AAPI delegates called the Indian American Physicians “the best” in the world, because “they give their best to the world.” He lauded them for their virtues of “learning, earning and returning” that makes them stand out across the globe.

Others who addressed the audience e during the inaugural session included, Dilip Chauhan, Deputy Commissioner for Trade, Investment and Innovation, and Jenifer Rajkumar, a lawyer, professor, and government leader who made history as the first South Asian-American woman ever to be elected to a state office in New York, whom Mayor Adams praised for her contributions to the society and urged the community to support her in her efforts to be the first person of Indian origin to run for statewide office in New York.

Some of the key speakers invited to be at the Congress include: Dr. Mehmet Oz, American television personality,20240718 130625 (1) Physician, Author, and Professor Emeritus of cardiothoracic surgery at Columbia University; Smriti Zubin Irani, an Indian politician and former actress, fashion model, and television producer. She has been Minister of Women and Child Development since 2019, and also Minister of Minority Affairs since 2022; Mansukh Laxmanbhai Mandaviya is an Indian politician currently serving as the Minister of Health and Family Welfare and Chemicals and Fertilizers of India. He is also a Rajya Sabha member from Gujarat; Dr. Jesse Menachem Ehrenfeld, President of the American Medical Association and Professor of Anesthesiology at the Medical College of Wisconsin.; and, Dr. Vivek Hallegere Murthy, a vice admiral in the United States Public Health Service Commissioned Corps who has served as the 19th and 21st Surgeon General of the United States under Presidents Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden.

“We want to welcome you to the AAPI’s inaugural World Congress of Physicians in the world’s capital city, New York,” Dr. Achintya Moulik, Chair of AAPI Convention 2024 said. “We have convened a fantastic group of dedicated organizers to meet the needs of the 2024 convention and are very excited about this year. Please reach out to any one of the representatives from the New York Tri-State team with questions or comments.”

Dr. Sumul Raval, current Secretary of AAPI, “We have an event that is full of fun-filled, research-filled, and learning-filled activities.” Outlining other features of the event, Dr. Raval said “There is something for everyone, including the younger generation, the teenagers, and children, making it a family event. “We have amazing food for all the many days — from Moghul catering from New Jersey, and many more activities throughout the five days,” Raval said.

According to the organizers, some of the major themes at the convention include: Yoga and Meditation practices, a Welcome kit with books & self-care supplies, A Personal Reflexology Session, Take home wellness routine, yoga therapy sessions, a workshop on Spiritual well-being, Book talk with Yoga Gurus, including on the science of Yoga & Lifestyle medicine, and several wellness sessions.

20240718 131234The World Congress has, among many others, sessions on cutting-edge research and CMEs, promoting business relationships, and display the ethnic items. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the prime focus of our World Health Congress. There will be entertainment features for children, performances by singer Atul Purohit and a comedy show by Kapil Sharma, Live entertainment by Javed Ali and Atif Aslam, Traditional Garba, Bollywood Film Festival, and a fashion show.

AAPI’s World Health Congress offers an exciting venue to interact with leading physicians, health professionals, academicians, and scientists of Indian origin. The physicians and healthcare professionals from across the country will convene and participate in the scholarly exchange of medical advances, to develop health policy agendas, and to encourage legislative priorities in the coming year.

In addition to colorful entertainment, and exquisite authentic Indian cuisine, esteemed health industry leaders, world-renowned speakers, and experts will be sharing their wisdom and expertise in the industry, offering enlightening sessions to the delegates.

Amit Chakrabarty, Vice President of AAPI said, “AAPI’s mission has evolved in the past 42 years. “Today, AAPI is strong representing over 120,000 Indian American physicians, 130 local Chapters, who make up 10% of total physicians in the US and nearly 50% of International Medical Graduates, rooted in every corner of the nation, who serve every 7th patient in the US. We are proud of our achievements and our contributions to the healthcare industry and the millions of people we serve.”

“The annual convention offers extensive academic presentations, recognition of achievements and achievers, and professional networking at the alumni and evening social events,” Dr. Samadder added.   For more details on AAPI and the 1st World Congress, please visit: AAPI World Health Congress  and www.aapiusa.org

A VP called Vance, and a Chilukuri called Usha- an Indian intriguing hope!

As former President Donald Trump seeks to return to the White House, Ohio US Senator JD Vance has been selected as his vice president nominee. James David Vance is an American author, venture capitalist, and politician who has served as the junior US Senator from Ohio since 2023. He is a member of the Republican Party and is the party’s nominee for the post of Vice President in the 2024 election.
But what intrigues Indians is another matter. The wife of Vice President Nominee Vance Usha Chilukuri is of Indian origin. Biden has Indian-born Kamala Harris as his vice president. I don’t know how history will change. It is not wrong for the Indian of the time to dream that this Usha Chilukuri may become “another Kamala” of the future.
Mr. Vance’s wife, Usha Chilukuri, now realizes that Vance has many credentials and a deep connection with Indian values ​​and culture. Usha Vance, a litigation lawyer at a national firm, is the daughter of Indian immigrants from Andhra. Born as Usha Chilukuri, she forged a career in law, clerking for Supreme Court Justices John Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh before Mr Kavanaugh was nominated to the bench. Mr. Vance, a 39-year-old Republican serving his first term in the Senate, was born and raised in Middletown, Ohio. He joined the Marines and served in Iraq, then graduated from Ohio State University and Yale Law School. He also worked as a venture capitalist in Silicon Valley.
Mr. Vance made a name for himself with his 2016 bestseller “Hillbilly Elegy,” published when Trump was first running for president. Even among the working class and among rural white voters, The book made Mr. Vance famous as a New York businessman who helped Trump win the presidency. “Hillbilly Elegy” also introduced Mr. Vance to the Trump family. Donald Trump Jr. loved the book and got to know Mr. Vance when he went to start his political career. And Trump, now 78, developed a great friendship and equation with Vance, half his age. Our Indian lady helped Mr. Vance organize his thoughts about social decay in rural white America, which inspired Vance’s best-selling memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy.” In the past, she has made some rare appearances with Mr. Vance when he sought an Ohio Senate seat.
Ms. Usha grew up in the suburbs of San Diego, California. Some of Usha’s academic achievements should also be known. After four years of intensive extracurricular activity at Yale, he continued his studies as a Gates Fellow at Cambridge, mingling with leftist and liberal groups. He holds a bachelor’s degree in history from Yale University and a master’s degree in philosophy from Cambridge University. No kidding, she was a registered Democrat in 2014. Ms. Usha and J.D. Vance first met at Yale Law School and were married in Kentucky in 2014, with a Hindu priest presiding over the special ceremony. The couple has three children: Ivan (born 2017), Vivek (born 2020) and Mirabel (born 2021). Usha Chilkuri is a Hindu, and her husband is a Roman Catholic. Vance was born James David Bowman in Middletown, Ohio. His grandfather and grandmother raised him.
 “Ushaji knows Indian culture and India. She can help her husband navigate the great relationship between the USA and India, and Indians can hope for something.”

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Dr.Mathew Joys

Trump Reinforces Hard-Right Agenda with Vance as VP Pick, Emphasizing Loyalty and Youth

In selecting Senator J.D. Vance from Ohio as his running mate, Donald Trump aimed to bolster his hard-right agenda. Vance, who gained national attention as the author of the best-selling book “Hillbilly Elegy,” initially criticized Trump in 2016 but fully endorsed him by 2022, securing Trump’s endorsement and winning a Senate seat.

Since then, Vance has been a staunch supporter of Trump’s base. He declared the 2020 election was “stolen,” labeled the hush money trial a “sham,” called those arrested for the Capitol attack “political prisoners,” argued that Trump should be immune from criminal prosecution, blamed the attempted assassination of Trump on the Biden campaign’s messaging, and claimed he would not have certified the election results had he been vice president on January 6. Furthermore, Vance suggested that Biden and the Democrats are intentionally poisoning middle Americans with fentanyl as revenge on GOP voters, advocated for Trump to fire all bureaucrats and replace them with MAGA loyalists, and tweeted in 2023, “my education policy is that we should stop funding institutions that teach American kids to support terrorist killers…”

By choosing Vance, Trump opted for a younger, more handsome, and articulate version of himself, thus reinforcing his own message.

Presidential candidates have traditionally chosen vice presidents based on various models, some newer than others. Historically, vice presidents were chosen to “balance” the ticket, whether geographically or ideologically. For example, John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts chose Southerner Lyndon B. Johnson, while Southern conservative Jimmy Carter picked Northern liberal Walter Mondale. Sometimes these pairings worked, but often they led to strained relationships, resulting in vice presidents being sidelined or assigned trivial duties.

When balance was the criterion, it often meant the vice president had an uneventful role. Powerful senators who became vice presidents, like Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson, found themselves out of the loop and marginalized. Truman, for instance, was unaware of the atomic bomb project until he became president after Roosevelt’s death. Johnson, as the powerful Senate Majority Leader, faced constant belittlement from Attorney General Bobby Kennedy.

This balancing model was primarily driven by electoral necessity. Before primaries settled nominations, conventions often saw multiple candidates and ballots, leading the frontrunner to make deals with rivals, offering the vice presidency as an incentive. However, in recent decades, the balancing model has been replaced by a new approach.

The new model emerged on July 9, 1992, when Bill Clinton asked Al Gore to join his ticket. Unlike traditional pairings, there was no balance between Clinton and Gore; both were young Southern politicians from the conservative wing of the Democratic Party. Headlines at the time highlighted this break from tradition: “Gore is a smart echo of the guy who chose him” and “Clinton Picks Gore as Running Mate in Break with Tradition: Democrats: Arkansas governor rejects geographical balance in choosing the Tennessee senator. Strategists believe his moderate positions can help unite divided party.”

Clinton’s choice of Gore surprised many who expected him to pick New York Governor Mario Cuomo, a Northeasterner and liberal who would have balanced Clinton’s southern roots and New Democrat ideology. But Clinton believed reinforcing his message was more crucial than balancing the ticket. In his biography, Clinton explains:

“His [Gore’s] selection defied the conventional wisdom that the vice-presidential candidates should provide political and geographic balance: We were from neighboring states. He was even younger than I was. And he, too, was identified with the New Democrat wing of the party. I believed his selection would work precisely because it didn’t have the traditional kind of balance.”

The reinforcing model has since become popular due to its advantages in both campaigning and governing. In a polarized political climate, voters seek clear stances from candidates, and a “balanced” ticket can confuse them. If Clinton had chosen Cuomo, those attracted to his centrist approach might have questioned its authenticity with a traditional liberal on the ballot.

In government, the reinforcing model ensures the president and vice president are aligned, facilitating smoother collaboration. Historically, when vice presidents were chosen for balance, they often disagreed with the president, leading to friction. With the reinforcing model, the vice president can genuinely support the president’s agenda.

The importance and influence of the vice presidency have grown with this model, starting with Al Gore and increasing with Dick Cheney. These vice presidents likely exerted more policy influence than all their predecessors combined.

The partnership model has been the norm since Gore’s selection. Unlike the fictional Selina Meyer from “Veep,” who frequently checked if the President had called (he hadn’t), Presidents Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Trump regularly communicated with their VPs, delegated significant power, and treated vice-presidential projects as presidential priorities.

This change was driven by the nomination process itself, which has diminished the importance of balance and increased the importance of message reinforcement.

Trump’s choice of Senator Vance reflects this shift. Vance will not only reinforce Trump’s core messages but also provide a reliable presence as vice president, particularly important given Trump’s age of 78. The idea of a younger, less erratic Trump excited Republicans when Governor DeSantis entered the race, though voters quickly realized he was not a suitable replacement. Vance, however, will energize the MAGA base, support an aging president in achieving his goals, and continue the fight effectively. As the Trump-Vance ticket gains momentum, Democrats, already concerned about their own weaknesses, will likely feel increased pressure.

Asian American Influence Surges in 2024 Election: Trump’s VP Pick Reflects Growing Political Role

Shalabh “Shalli” Kumar felt immense pride on Monday evening as Donald Trump finally revealed his anticipated choice for his running mate in the 2024 election.

But it wasn’t just the mention of Ohio Senator JD Vance that triggered Kumar’s reaction. For the founder of the Republican Hindu Coalition and chair of the Hindu and Indian Coalition of the Republican National Committee, it was the inclusion of Vance’s wife, Usha, that resonated deeply—a 38-year-old Yale graduate and daughter of Indian immigrants.

“Hindus have come a long way,” Kumar remarked, reflecting on the community’s growth in population and political influence since his arrival in the United States in the late 1960s. “It’s about time,” he added, emphasizing that the Vances “are going to represent a new generation of Americans.”

The 2024 presidential campaign has witnessed significant participation from politicians of South Asian descent. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy competed in the Republican primaries, while Vice President Kamala Harris seeks reelection alongside President Joe Biden.

During the Republican National Convention’s second night, both Haley and Ramaswamy unequivocally endorsed the Trump-Vance ticket in prime-time speeches. On Wednesday night, Usha Vance will introduce her husband as Trump’s running mate, marking her inaugural step in the Trump-Vance campaign.

As Asian Americans assume a more prominent role in the 2024 presidential campaign, political activists from both major parties express hope that this increased representation will lead to greater engagement with a historically overlooked voting bloc.

Chintan Patel, executive director of Indian American Impact, hailed the “phenomenal” rise of South Asian representation in politics. “Since Impact’s inception in 2016, the number of elected officials within South Asian communities has grown from approximately 50 to over 300 nationwide, including, notably, Vice President Kamala Harris,” Patel told CNN, underscoring the pivotal role of representation in reshaping community aspirations.

Sources within the Trump campaign believe that Usha Vance has the potential to appeal to minority voters. Asian Americans constitute the fastest-growing racial or ethnic group among eligible U.S. voters, according to a recent Pew Research Center analysis, with their numbers increasing by approximately 2 million since 2020—an equivalent to Nebraska’s population.

Despite their growing electoral influence, both political parties acknowledge the need for greater efforts to connect with this critical voting bloc. Christine Chen, executive director of APIAVote, emphasized the scars left by the events of 2020, including the rise in anti-Asian hate and the challenges posed by the pandemic, which underscore the importance of political engagement and representation.

“We’re also trying to reemphasize to the campaigns and the parties that they really need to do a better job in terms of reaching out to our growing base of (the) electorate, but also doing it early,” Chen stated.

Last week, APIAVote, in collaboration with AAPI Data, Asian Americans Advancing Justice, and the AARP, released the 2024 Asian American Voter Survey, highlighting key issues driving Asian American voters. While 90% of those surveyed expressed intent to vote in the upcoming elections, half reported no contact from the Democratic Party, and 57% said the same about the Republicans—an ongoing concern for Chen.

Patel stressed that, like any voting bloc, Asian Americans seek substantive commitment to issues that matter most to them, such as the economy, education, inflation, and immigration.

Immigration holds particular significance for many South Asian Republican voters due to the backlog affecting millions of Hindu and Indian Americans awaiting green cards, Kumar noted. Progressive Indian American voters, Patel added, also voice concerns over immigration policies outlined in Project 2025—a conservative blueprint that includes proposals for mass deportations.

Chen emphasized the ongoing work required to engage Asian American voters, many of whom are first-time immigrants, in understanding their potential impact on upcoming elections.

“It’s actually for us to protect a democracy,” she stated. “Everyone needs to participate. It’s no longer a democracy if only a few participate in the election process.”

Unity and Underlying Tensions: Key Takeaways from Day 2 of the GOP Convention

Former President Trump’s 2024 rivals rejoined the fold on Tuesday, as former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis took the stage, highlighting a push for unity at the GOP convention. Despite this, unity messaging was often overshadowed by attacks from figures like Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who targeted Democrats.

Nonetheless, the event has proceeded smoothly as Trump’s GOP promotes a positive message following his near-assassination. Here are five takeaways from the second day of the convention:

  1. Republicans Strive to Overcome Divisions

Even though Trump easily secured the presidential nomination, divisions persisted within the GOP during the primaries, with some voters casting protest ballots against him. However, these conflicts have been temporarily set aside following the near-fatal shooting of Trump. Speakers emphasized unity for both the party and the nation, with prominent appearances by Trump’s top rivals, Haley and DeSantis.

Haley’s presence was significant, as she initially stated she wasn’t invited to the convention. This changed after the attempted assassination, leading her to fully endorse Trump. “I’ll start by making one thing perfectly clear,” Haley said. “Donald Trump has my strong endorsement.”

DeSantis, who had already backed Trump after exiting the race, reaffirmed his support, emphasizing his alignment with Trump. Their appearances, along with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announcing Kentucky delegates for Trump, showcase Republicans rallying around their nominee while President Biden deals with his party’s turmoil.

“We’re not all going to agree on everything, and that’s OK,” said Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), a moderate Republican. “You have to allow for robust debate and discussion. And ultimately, though, you have to find compromise and commonality and forge a path forward, and I think that’s what [Haley] was speaking to.”

However, underlying tensions remained. In a notable moment, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) taunted former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), reflecting internal Republican animosities even as they present a united front.

  1. Unity Messaging Undermined by Attacks

Despite calls for unity across party lines following the shooting, some Republicans used their speeches to attack Democrats. Lake, running against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego for the Senate, blamed Democrats for various problems, including “the fake news” that obscures “disastrous Democrat policies.”

Cruz accused Democrats of prioritizing votes from undocumented immigrants over protecting children, eliciting boos from the crowd. “Today, as a result of Joe Biden’s presidency, your family is less safe,” Cruz said.

The media also faced criticism. Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson accused the press of “abus[ing] the public trust,” which led to more boos. “They divide us,” Carson claimed. “Our government has been no better.”

These remarks were striking given the convention’s theme of uniting Americans after the violent attack and the broader call to lower political temperatures.

  1. Frequent References to Vice President Harris

Vice President Harris was frequently mentioned, reflecting discussions about possibly replacing Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. Haley criticized Harris’s handling of the border situation while hinting at the prospect of her leading the country. “Let me remind you: Kamala had one job. One job. And that was to fix the border. Now imagine her in charge of the entire country,” Haley said, prompting boos.

This rhetoric aligns with Trump allies’ increased attacks on Harris amid talks of a potential ticket swap, which Biden has rejected. Pennsylvania Senate Republican nominee David McCormick questioned Harris’s leadership, asking, “Who’s ready to retire Joe Biden and send border czar Kamala Harris back to California?”

Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird targeted Harris on policing issues, criticizing her reform calls. “They treat police like criminals and criminals like victims,” she said, referring to Biden and Harris.

Blaming Biden and Harris for the country’s problems was a recurring theme, likely to continue in GOP messaging through November. “You are worried that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are hurting our country because they are,” said Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), a former Democrat.

  1. Battleground Senate Candidates Appeal to the Base

Senate candidates from key battleground states addressed the convention, criticizing their Democratic opponents and appealing to the GOP base as the party aims to reclaim the Senate in November. Lake led chants of “build the wall,” blaming the Biden administration for border issues.

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) brought his bulldog “Babydog” on stage, predicting political outcomes with the popular pet. “Babydog says we’ll retain the House, the majority in the House. We’re going to flip the United States Senate. And overwhelmingly we’re going to elect Donald Trump and JD Vance in November,” Justice proclaimed.

Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno (R) took a jab at rival Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), suggesting it’s time for both Democrats “to go home.” Wisconsin Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde called for national unity while blaming the media and the left for divisions.

“Instead of putting on just the blue jersey or the red jersey, we need to put on the red, white, and blue jersey and come together as Americans,” Hovde said, adding that Republicans will heal the country from divisions caused by the media and “left.”

These speeches energized the base, preparing them for competitive races in the fall.

  1. Smooth Sailing for the Event

The Republican convention, now halfway over, has proceeded without significant issues. Speakers have generally stayed on message, praising Trump’s presidency and condemning the Biden administration for the country’s problems.

While some strayed from the unity message to attack Democrats, they consistently returned to the theme of voting for Trump. This contrasts with past conventions, such as in 2016 when Cruz told delegates to “vote your conscience” instead of rallying for Trump.

This time, Cruz began his remarks by “giving thanks to God Almighty” for Trump’s survival, a sentiment echoed by many speakers. The audience’s enthusiasm remained high despite the recent shooting, showing excitement each time Trump appeared. With two more days left, Republicans appear overwhelmingly satisfied with the convention’s progress.

A New Chapter in Russia-India Relations: PM Modi’s Moscow Visit and Its Strategic Implications

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow marks a significant moment in the long-standing relationship between Russia and India. This visit, his first since the start of the Ukraine War, occurs during a critical juncture in global geopolitics. Notably, it coincides with the NATO Summit in the United States, highlighting the increasing relevance and strategic importance of Modi’s trip.

The historical ties between Russia and India have been robust and characterized by mutual cooperation in the defense, energy, and technology sectors. This enduring partnership has withstood the test of time and various global political shifts. PM Modi’s visit underscores India’s commitment to maintaining and strengthening this relationship despite the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Russia is a country with great strategic depth. Russia, the largest country in the world, straddling over 11 time zones, possesses a myriad of strengths that contribute to its unique position on the global stage. Russia has traditionally been a significant player in various aspects, from its rich history and diverse culture to its vast natural resources and geopolitical influence.  Russia is endowed with abundant natural resources. The country is a leading producer of oil, natural gas, minerals, and timber, making it a key player in the global economy. As a major energy exporter, Russia plays a crucial role in shaping global energy markets and geopolitical dynamics.

Furthermore, Russia’s geopolitical influence, even though somewhat diminished, is still a significant strength that sets it apart on the world stage. As a permanent United Nations Security Council member and a nuclear superpower, Russia wields considerable political clout and influence in international affairs. The country’s strategic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia gives it a unique vantage point in shaping regional dynamics and global politics. Its cultural legacy serves as a source of national pride and identity for the Russian people, fostering a strong sense of unity and belonging. Moreover, Russia’s scientific and technological prowess is another notable strength that propels the country forward in the modern era. Russian scientists and engineers have made significant contributions to fields such as space exploration, nuclear technology, and military innovation. Russia’s advancements in military technology, such as hypersonic missiles and advanced defense systems, further underscore its technological capabilities.

India’s economic potential is a key strength that sets it apart as one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. It is a diverse economy spanning sectors such as information technology, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and manufacturing. India is home to a young and dynamic population, making it a demographic powerhouse. With a median age of around 28 years, India’s youthful workforce presents a significant advantage in terms of productivity, innovation, and economic growth. This demographic dividend has the potential to drive India’s economic progress and competitiveness on the global stage.

Moreover, India’s technological advancements and innovation ecosystem are key strengths that position it as a global hub for technology and entrepreneurship. The country’s thriving startup ecosystem has produced numerous unicorns and tech disruptors in sectors such as e-commerce, fintech, and artificial intelligence. India’s information technology and software development prowess has also earned it a reputation as a leading destination for IT services and outsourcing. With a history dating back thousands of years, India has been a cradle of civilization and a melting pot of cultures, religions, and traditions.

These strengths collectively position India as a significant player in the global economy and innovation landscape. By effectively leveraging these strengths and addressing key challenges, India can continue as a rising global power in the 21st century.

From a U.S. strategic perspective, Modi’s Moscow visit is multifaceted. Firstly, it reflects India’s independent foreign policy, which emphasizes strategic autonomy. India has consistently balanced its relationships with major global powers, including the U.S., Russia, and China, to safeguard its national interests. This visit reaffirms India’s “strategic autonomy” stance, ensuring it does not overly align with any single bloc.

The timing of this visit, parallel to the NATO Summit, is particularly significant. As NATO members deliberate on the security challenges posed by Russia’s actions in Ukraine, India’s engagement with Moscow signals its intent to act as a stabilizing force and mediator in the region. This approach could provide a counterbalance to the escalating tensions and foster dialogue between the West and Russia.

Additionally, PM Modi’s role during the G7 Summit, where he engaged with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, underscores India’s potential as a peace broker. Given India’s strategic relationships with both Russia and Ukraine, it is uniquely positioned to mediate and possibly broker a ceasefire. This initiative could be pivotal in de-escalating the conflict, which has far-reaching implications for global energy and food security, both severely impacted by the ongoing war.

Escalating global conflicts and problems pose significant challenges to the international community, requiring concerted efforts and multilateral cooperation to address them effectively. From geopolitical tensions and territorial disputes to environmental degradation and public health crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the world faces a complex array of interconnected issues that demand urgent attention and sustainable solutions.

The prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly strained global resources and supply chains, contributing to rising inflation and threatening energy and food security. Most G7 leaders, except Italy, are facing electoral challenges, with President Biden’s sinking poll numbers against Trump, who has claimed he could secure a ceasefire in Ukraine before taking office.

In the recent UK elections, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party suffered its worst electoral defeat in 200 years, with the Labour Party winning a landslide. In the French elections, President Macron’s party lost badly to the leftist coalition, while the rightist National Rally (RN) made very significant gains. These results were greatly impacted by the political fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war.

As the conflict continues, the question remains: how long can the world afford the Russia-Ukraine war? Its prolonged duration not only exacerbates economic instability but also endangers global security. Tensions are increasing significantly all over the world. While the NATO meeting is being held in Washington DC, China and Belarus are holding their joint military exercises on the Ukraine and Poland border. Ukraine’s attacks inside Russian territory and the spate of recent terrorist attacks inside Russia have further exacerbated the already fraught situation on the ground.

India’s intervention, leveraging its strong diplomatic ties and strategic autonomy, could be a crucial step toward resolving the conflict and stabilizing the global order. By fostering dialogue, diplomacy, and collaboration among nations under India’s stewardship, the global community can work toward resolving conflicts, mitigating crises, and building a more peaceful, secure, and sustainable future for all.

In conclusion, PM Modi’s visit to Moscow during his third term and amidst the NATO Summit underscores the nuanced and strategic nature of India’s foreign policy. It highlights India’s role as a key global player capable of engaging with multiple power centers to maintain regional and global stability. For the U.S., this visit is a reminder of the importance of respecting India’s strategic autonomy while continuing to build a robust bilateral partnership. As the global order evolves, the Russia-India relationship will undoubtedly play a significant role in shaping the future geopolitical landscape, with India emerging as a crucial mediator and stabilizer on the world stage.

“Ambassador Pradeep Kapur is an acknowledged “luminary diplomat” with a distinguished career, working closely with several Indian Prime Ministers and other heads of government, heads of state, and global leaders and policymakers in different continents of the world: Asia, Africa, Europe, North America, and South America.

Prof (Dr) Joseph M. Chalil is the chairman of the Indo-American Press Club and publisher of Universal News Network. He is an adjunct professor and Chair of the Complex Health Systems advisory board at Nova Southeastern University’s School of Business and the chief medical officer at Novo Integrated Sciences, Inc.

Dr. Chalil, Amb. Kapur, and Prof. M.D. Nalapat recently published a best-seller book, “India Beyond the Pandemic: A Sustainable Path Towards Global Quality Healthcare.”

Trump Selects Senator JD Vance as Vice Presidential Running Mate Amid Controversy and Criticism

Donald Trump has chosen Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his vice presidential running mate, putting an end to speculation over who would join him in challenging President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump made the announcement on Monday via his Truth Social post, stating, “After careful consideration and recognizing the talents of many others, I have decided that Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio is best suited for the role of Vice President of the United States.”

Later that day, during the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Vance was formally confirmed as Trump’s running mate. This decision came shortly after Trump himself was confirmed as the GOP’s presidential nominee earlier in the proceedings.

Vance’s selection marks a significant elevation for the 39-year-old senator, who entered politics less than two years ago as a relative newcomer. It also symbolizes Vance’s shift towards aligning with Trump’s political ideology, a contrast to his earlier criticisms of the former president.

Vance gained national recognition with his bestselling memoir “Hillbilly Elegy” in 2016, which reflected on his upbringing in rural Ohio and provided insights into the culture and politics of Appalachia. Despite initial skepticism, the book established Vance as a sharp political commentator, particularly attuned to the perspectives of the White working class.

Prior to his Senate tenure, Vance worked in the private sector, notably with Mithril Capital and as the founder of his own venture capital firm, Narya, starting in 2019. His entry into the Senate came after a successful campaign in 2022, where he secured victory over Democrat Tim Ryan.

In an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity, Vance recounted Trump’s call inviting him to join the ticket, quoting Trump as saying, “I believe you are the best person to assist me in governing and winning, especially in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.” This decision excluded other prominent contenders like Senator Marco Rubio and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, according to NBC News.

The Biden campaign swiftly criticized Vance’s selection, alleging that Vance’s alignment with Trump’s agenda would harm the nation. Campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon asserted, “Vance will support Trump’s extreme MAGA agenda, even at the cost of breaking laws and harming American citizens.”

In response to Harris’s acceptance of a vice presidential debate invitation, Vance received congratulations from Harris herself via a message, NBC sources confirmed. Shortly after Vance’s selection was made public, his wife Usha Vance resigned from her position at the law firm Munger, Tolles & Olson.

Before entering politics, Vance had been a vocal critic of Trump, famously describing him as a “total fraud” and likening his political movement to a harmful drug in writings for The Atlantic prior to Trump’s 2016 election victory. However, Vance’s views evolved significantly during his time in politics, leading him to become one of Trump’s staunchest supporters.

In recent months, Vance has actively embraced his pro-Trump stance, attending rallies and defending Trump vigorously, particularly during Trump’s legal battles. Vance attributed Trump’s survival of an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally to rhetoric from the Biden campaign, a claim that drew widespread criticism and calls for political restraint.

As a senator, Vance has taken controversial stances, including opposing U.S. aid to Ukraine amidst its conflict with Russia and voting consistently against legislation aimed at expanding federal abortion rights. His announcement as Trump’s running mate added further drama to a day already marked by significant Trump-related developments.

Earlier on the same day, a federal judge dismissed a criminal case against Trump, alleging illegal retention of classified documents and obstruction of government efforts to retrieve them.

Global Leaders Condemn Shooting at Trump Rally, Call for End to Political Violence

On July 13, global leaders united in condemnation following the shooting at Donald Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania, where the former president sustained a gunshot wound to his right ear, resulting in the deaths of one rally attendee and the shooter.

Leaders from around the world expressed shock at the incident, denounced political violence, and extended wishes for Trump’s swift recovery.

A spokesperson for United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres denounced the shooting, labeling it as “an act of political violence.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, emphasizing his friendship with Trump, conveyed his wishes for a speedy recovery while strongly condemning the incident: “Violence has no place in politics and democracies.”

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida underscored the importance of standing firm against any violence that challenges democracy: “We must stand firm against any form of violence that challenges democracy.”

According to the Secret Service, two other spectators were injured during the rally, while the FBI launched an investigation into what they deemed an assassination attempt.

Trump, 78, took to social media to announce that he had been shot in the upper part of his right ear and was experiencing significant bleeding. His campaign assured the public that he was recovering well, and he was discharged from the hospital later on July 13.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed his dismay at the rally’s violent turn: “I was appalled by the shocking scenes at the rally. Political violence in any form has no place in our societies, and my thoughts are with all the victims of this attack.”

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described the shooting as “concerning and confronting,” echoing the sentiments of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who stated that he was “sickened” by the incident and emphasized that “political violence is never acceptable.” Similar sentiments were echoed by leaders from Thailand, Taiwan, New Zealand, and the Philippines.

A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed growing concerns among Americans about political violence, with two-thirds of respondents fearing potential violence following the upcoming November elections, where Trump, representing the Republican Party, will compete against President Joe Biden, a Democrat who also condemned the shooting.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed his shock over the shooting, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who had recently met with Trump during a NATO summit in the U.S., offered his prayers and support: “My prayers are with the former president in these dark hours.”

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva denounced the shooting as unacceptable and urged others to join in condemning it: “The attack against former President Donald Trump must be vehemently repudiated by all defenders of democracy and dialogue in politics. What we saw today is unacceptable.”

Biden Orders Security Review After Trump Survives Assassination Attempt at Rally

President Joe Biden has initiated an independent assessment of the security protocols employed during Saturday’s campaign rally, where Donald Trump narrowly escaped an attempted assassination.

Addressing the nation on Sunday, Biden reiterated his condemnation of the violence and urged Americans to allow the FBI’s investigation to proceed unhindered.

According to reports, Trump claimed to have been shot in the ear and was swiftly escorted to safety Saturday evening, his face stained with blood. The assailant and a member of the audience perished in the altercation, while two other attendees suffered severe injuries, as confirmed by the Secret Service.

The FBI has identified the shooter as Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old resident of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania. Law enforcement authorities assert that Crooks discharged multiple rounds from a rooftop adjacent to the rally site before being neutralized by Secret Service personnel.

In light of the incident, the Secret Service now faces intense scrutiny, with demands mounting for congressional investigations into the security measures in place during the rally.

Democratic Speculation Intensifies: Potential Candidates Emerge as Biden’s Political Future Remains Uncertain

Speculation is rife about President Biden’s political future and potential Democratic candidates if he drops out of the race. Despite Biden’s insistence on continuing his campaign, concerns are mounting among Democrats that his candidacy might jeopardize their hold on the White House and House majority.

Biden’s performance at a highly anticipated press conference after the NATO summit in Washington, D.C., was considered better than in recent weeks, but he still made several significant gaffes. This has led to an increase in the number of lawmakers calling for his withdrawal and heightened scrutiny of potential replacements on the Democratic ticket.

Vice President Harris

Vice President Harris is seen as the natural successor if Biden steps down, given her position. Her candidacy would be historic as she would be the first Black woman or South Asian woman to be a major party’s presidential nominee. Harris brings several assets to her potential candidacy, including her current role as vice president and her experience handling key issues within the administration. She was tasked with addressing the U.S. southern border early on and has been a vocal advocate for abortion access. Her previous bid for the nomination in 2020 as a senator and her experience as California attorney general could help counter GOP attacks on crime. Additionally, she would have easier access to funds leftover from the Biden-Harris campaign, a significant advantage.

However, Harris’s association with the Biden administration could make her a target for Republican attacks on issues like inflation and the border. She has also faced high staff turnover rates, and polling has not shown her with a significant edge over former President Trump in a hypothetical matchup.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is widely speculated to have presidential aspirations for 2028, but her move could come sooner depending on Biden’s decision. Whitmer flipped Michigan’s governor’s mansion in 2018, and Democrats managed to flip both state legislative chambers in 2022, achieving their first trifecta in nearly four decades. Whitmer was chosen to give the Democratic response to Trump’s 2020 State of the Union address, a role typically assigned to rising party stars. A candidate from an important swing state, particularly in the Midwest, would be advantageous for Democrats at the presidential level.

Though Whitmer has downplayed the idea of replacing Biden, she has been on a high-profile tour promoting her book, “True Gretch: What I’ve Learned About Life, Leadership, and Everything in Between.”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has been seen as a presidential contender even before questions about Biden’s future emerged. Newsom engaged in public spats with former GOP presidential hopeful Ron DeSantis, airing ads in Florida suggesting Floridians move to California. He also agreed to a televised debate against DeSantis hosted by Fox News’ Sean Hannity. Although Newsom has been a vocal supporter of Biden, acting as a surrogate in states like Michigan and New Hampshire, his actions have fueled speculation about his own presidential ambitions.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who flipped the governor’s mansion back to Democratic control in 2018, is another potential candidate. Pritzker, with an estimated net worth of $3.5 billion, could easily self-fund his campaign, making him appealing to Democrats. His leadership of a reliably blue state and his focus on liberal hot-button issues make him a loyal Biden surrogate. However, his Midwestern state, Illinois, is a blue stronghold compared to its neighboring states.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is noteworthy as a Democratic governor in a state that Trump won by 26 points in 2020. Beshear has been praised for his handling of natural disasters in Kentucky and effectively used the issue of abortion in his reelection campaign against Republican nominee Daniel Cameron. His gubernatorial campaigns could provide a roadmap for Democrats to attract moderate and disaffected Republicans, as well as independents, particularly from southern states.

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore has been mentioned as a potential Biden replacement despite being only months into his first term. Moore, a 45-year-old Rhodes Scholar and Army veteran, is popular on television and was already considered a 2028 hopeful before Biden’s campaign faced difficulties. Having a younger, charismatic Black man on the ticket would appeal to the Democratic base. Moore, the first Black governor of Maryland, previously led a top anti-poverty nonprofit.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, though not as frequently mentioned as others, is another significant contender. Shapiro gained early prominence as Pennsylvania attorney general by challenging the Trump administration over contraceptive insurance coverage and leading a wide-reaching probe into sex abuse by the Catholic clergy. A candidate from a battleground state like Pennsylvania would be highly appealing to Democrats. If elected, Shapiro would be the first Jewish American president.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg impressed Democrats in 2020 with his competitive performance against established figures like Biden, Sens. Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders. Buttigieg’s experience in Biden’s Cabinet and his popularity as a TV defender of the administration could make him an attractive alternative for the party. If nominated, he would be the first openly gay man to be the Democratic nominee.

The speculation surrounding President Biden’s potential withdrawal from the race has brought various Democratic contenders into the spotlight. Each potential candidate brings unique strengths and challenges, making the decision a critical one for the Democratic Party’s future.

Former President Trump Injured in Assassination Attempt at Pennsylvania Rally, Gunman and Audience Member Dead

Former President Donald Trump was injured in an assassination attempt during his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, according to the FBI. The gunman, identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, from Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, and an audience member are dead, while two other attendees are critically injured. Trump, shot in the upper part of his right ear, was rushed off the stage with blood on his face. President Joe Biden spoke with Trump after the incident, denounced the violence, and returned to the White House to receive briefings from law enforcement. Eyewitnesses described the scene as chaotic and bloody.

Trump took to social media to share his condition, stating, “I was shot and hit by a bullet in the upper part of my right ear.” The Secret Service confirmed his safety after the attack. The assailant, Crooks, had fired multiple shots from a rooftop near the rally venue before being killed by Secret Service agents.

Eyewitnesses described the situation as chaotic and disturbing. One rally attendee remarked, “It’s pure insanity,” highlighting the intensity of the event. The shooting resulted in significant disruption and panic among the crowd.

President Joe Biden, addressing the nation, expressed his gratitude for Trump’s safety and condemned the act of violence. “I’m grateful President Trump is safe,” Biden said in a statement. He had planned to stay in Delaware for the weekend but returned to the White House earlier than scheduled to monitor the situation closely and receive updates from law enforcement agencies.

The FBI is investigating the incident, focusing on the motivations behind Crooks’ actions and any possible affiliations or accomplices. The attack underscores the heightened tensions and security challenges surrounding political events in the current climate.

Security at political rallies and events has been a growing concern, with the need for enhanced measures to ensure the safety of attendees and public figures. This incident is a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities and the importance of vigilant security protocols.

The assassination attempt on former President Trump during his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, resulted in injuries to Trump, the death of the gunman and an audience member, and critical injuries to two others. The chaotic scene left a lasting impact on those present, with President Biden condemning the violence and returning to the White House to oversee the response. The FBI continues to investigate the motivations behind the attack.

Election Polls Show Tight Race Between Biden and Trump

In a recent NPR/PBS/Marist survey, President Joe Biden is shown leading former President Donald Trump by a narrow margin of 50% to 48% in a direct head-to-head matchup. However, when third-party candidates are included, Trump takes a slight edge, with Biden trailing by one point. These results are within the poll’s 3.1-point margin of error.

Trump has gained momentum, with Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker showing him ahead by 2.7 points, reflecting a 1.2-point increase in his favor since the debate. FiveThirtyEight’s tracker also indicates Trump leading by 2.1 points, marking a 1.9-point rise from June 27.

A poll conducted by ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post and released on Thursday reveals that Biden and Trump are currently tied among registered voters. When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is considered as an option, Trump leads by one point. This is seen as a positive outcome for Biden following the June 27 debate.

The poll highlights concerns about Biden’s age, with 67% of respondents believing he should withdraw from the race and 85% thinking he is too old to serve as president, up from 81% in April and 68% a year ago. Among Biden supporters, 54% think he should drop out, and 81% believe he is too old for another term.

Trump’s lead extends further in other polls. The latest Emerson College poll shows Trump ahead by three points over Biden, and Morning Consult’s weekly survey also indicates a two-point lead for Trump. A New York Times/Siena College survey conducted from June 28 to July 2 gives Trump a six-point advantage, representing a three-point swing in his favor since the previous poll, marking his widest lead in any poll by these groups since he began his first presidential campaign in 2015.

Similarly, a Wall Street Journal survey conducted after the debate finds Biden trailing Trump by six points, the largest gap recorded by Journal surveys since 2021 in a two-way matchup, showing a four-point increase in Trump’s lead since February. A CBS/YouGov post-debate poll taken in seven crucial battleground states shows Trump leading Biden by three points, reversing a one-point deficit from the previous month.

News Peg

Despite the increasing calls from 11 Democrats in the House, one in the Senate, several prominent pundits, and multiple major news outlets for Biden to reconsider his candidacy post-debate, Biden has firmly decided to stay in the race. However, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., indicated on Wednesday that Biden’s decision might not be final. Speaking on MSNBC, Pelosi said, “It’s up to the president to decide if he is going to run,” adding, “We’re all encouraging him to make that decision, because time is running short.”

Crucial Quote

“The question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now. And it’s time for it to end,” Biden stated in a letter to congressional Democrats on Monday.

What We Don’t Know

It remains uncertain how potential replacement candidates would perform against Trump in November. Most polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris, who is considered the most likely candidate to replace Biden if he steps down, would do better than other potential Democratic contenders like California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Harris and Biden’s poll results against Trump are similar, with some surveys showing Harris performing slightly better and others showing Biden with a slight edge. However, the impact of months of campaigning by Harris or another candidate without her national recognition is unknown.

What To Watch For

Polls prior to the debate consistently indicated that Trump leads Biden in the seven key swing states that are likely to decide the election outcome. A May Cook Political Report survey showed Trump with a three-point lead on average in these states. Similarly, a May Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Trump leading Biden by four points across these battleground states. An April poll by the New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer indicated Trump would win in five out of six swing states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, and Nevada), with Biden only ahead in Wisconsin.

Surprising Fact

In such a tight race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent run could significantly impact the election outcome, although it is unclear in whose favor. A May Emerson poll found that Trump’s lead over Biden increases from two points to five when Kennedy Jr., independent candidate Cornell West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are included. Kennedy Jr. received 6% support, while 10% of voters were undecided. A May Fox poll showed a two-point increase in Trump’s lead with the three independents on the ballot. The Times/Siena/Inquirer survey found Kennedy Jr. attracts votes from key Biden supporters, securing 10% of voters in six battleground states in a five-way contest. His support rises to 18% among voters aged 18 to 29 and 14% among Hispanic voters. A recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows Trump’s five-point lead remains unchanged with Kennedy Jr. on the ballot. Conversely, an April NBC poll found Biden trailing Trump by two points in a direct matchup but leading by two points when Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates are included.

Tangent

Polls consistently suggest that Biden and the Democratic Party have been losing support among crucial demographics, including Black, Latino, and younger voters, who previously largely supported the party. A May NPR/PBS/Marist survey indicated voters under 45 prefer Biden over Trump by just four points, and Biden leads among Gen Z/millennials by six points in a direct matchup. However, with third-party candidates included, the vote swings in Trump’s favor, by six points among Gen Z/millennials and eight points among voters under 45. The April Times/Siena/Inquirer poll also found Biden tied with Trump among Hispanic voters in six battleground states and trailing by four points among 18- to 29-year-olds in those states. These groups supported Biden with more than 60% in 2020. Biden also seems to be losing ground in Democratic strongholds like New York, where he is nine points ahead of Trump, according to a May Siena College survey, after beating Trump by 23 points in 2020.

Key Background

Biden and Trump are set for a historic rematch after securing their respective party nominations in March, ending the primary season earlier than usual. Polls show historically low voter enthusiasm, with both candidates having relatively low favorability ratings—below 45%. The NBC poll revealed that 64% of voters are “very interested” in this year’s election, a 20-year low. Trump has centered his campaign on his legal challenges, accusing prosecutors and judges of conspiring with Biden to damage his election chances, though there is no evidence to support this claim. Biden, on the other hand, has portrayed Trump as a threat to democracy, citing his role in the January 6 Capitol riots, and has criticized Trump for appointing Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade. Polls show that voters consistently consider the economy, immigration, abortion, and inflation as top issues. The Times/Siena/Inquirer survey found a majority trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy, crime, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but trust Biden more on abortion.

Campaign for Democracy Celebrates Entrepreneurial Spirit and Democratic Values

Winchester, MA – On a bright summer evening, the US India Security Council President, Mr. Ramesh Viswanath Kapur and his wife Susan, opened their beautiful home and hosted a fund raiser for  Governor Gavin Newsom, the 40th Governor of California. This event underscored the urgent need for democratic values, the entrepreneurial spirit, and the critical role of minority communities, especially Indian Americans, in shaping the future of our nation.

Mr. Kapur opened the evening by expressing gratitude to Governor Newsom for his decisive veto of the proposed SB 403 bill, which aimed to ban caste discrimination, and for his interest in visiting a Hindu temple in Florida in the coming months. The room, filled with many Indian origin attendees, entrepreneurs, and young people, erupted in applause, recognizing Governor Newsom’s steadfast support for entrepreneurial initiatives and his principled stance on critical issues. Mr.Kapur also stated that he feels the Governor has a good chance of being the 47th President of USA.

Governor Newsom shared his inspiring journey from entrepreneur to Governor, recounting his early days in the 80s when he sold wine from his living room as a teenager. His story deeply resonated with the audience. He highlighted his impactful tenure on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, where his work on homelessness and urban development drew significant attention. As Mayor of San Francisco in 2004, he made national headlines by authorizing same-sex marriage licenses and implementing universal healthcare for city residents. Newsom also spoke about the sister city initiative with the state of Karnataka in India during his mayoral tenure, which allowed him to visit the country with a large delegation of business and community leaders from San Francisco. He expressed his eagerness to visit India again as Governor.

Governor Newsom emphasized the importance of AI, technology, entrepreneurship, and the contributions of immigrants. He stated, “42% of all startups in California are founded by immigrants, and they are the lifeblood of our state. Amid the vitriol, xenophobia, and nativism that permeate much of our politics, particularly from figures like Donald Trump, we in California have endured and emerged stronger. We overcame the divisive rhetoric of Prop 187 in the 1990s, and today, we celebrate our diversity rather than merely tolerate it. As a result, we lead in manufacturing, boast the highest number of scientists, researchers, and Nobel laureates, and continue to drive innovation globally.”

Addressing the unique strengths of Massachusetts, Governor Newsom highlighted how renowned institutions of higher learning serve as conveyor belts for talent, fostering competition not just on price but on talent. He noted that what sets California and Massachusetts apart is their human capital—the best and the brightest. This spirit of inclusiveness and growth ensures that everyone benefits. In a state where 27% of the population is foreign-born, this mindset is crucial. California, a majority-minority state with a population equivalent to 21 other states combined, must see itself in the context of the world.

Governor Newsom also mentioned his recent travels to Michigan, a stop in Pittsburgh, and his packed schedule, including attending this event and visiting New Hampshire. The evening concluded with attendees eagerly speculating whether he would run for President or if Vice President Harris might run, given President Biden’s debate performance and the pressure reported within the Democratic Party, as seen in the news and through print media.

Prominent business leaders such as Vikram Rajadhyaksha, Dr. Venu Kondle, Yash and Jigna Shah, Manoj and Vaishali Shinde, Mathias and Natalia Troger, Shirish and Allison Nimgaonkar, tech entrepreneurs Thomas Arul, Manny Arora, Priya Samant, Yogi Gupta, Rishi Yadav, and community leaders including Raj Dichpally, Ranjani, Sandip Asija, Rahul, Bernice Singh and Dr. Anil Saigal, and Restaurateur Vinod Kapur, who offered the catering services for the evening, attended the event. Rishi Kumar, former candidate for the U.S. House representing California’s 16th Congressional District, was also present.

This memorable evening not only celebrated the entrepreneurial spirit and democratic values but also reinforced the significant contributions of the Indian-American community to the fabric of our nation. Governor Newsom’s visionary leadership and commitment to inclusiveness and innovation continue to inspire and drive progress.

Ashwin Ramaswami Surges Ahead, Outpacing Indicted Incumbent In Fundraising And Support

JOHNS CREEK, GA — Ashwin Ramaswami’s campaign for Georgia State Senate has continued to gain momentum in his race against incumbent Shawn Still, who has been indicted alongside Donald Trump in Georgia for trying to overturn the 2020 election results. As of the latest public campaign finance report on June 30, Ashwin has raised over $412,000 and has $297,000 cash on hand. He has outraised his opponent Shawn Still 100x in the latest filing period from May 1 to June 30 – while Ashwin raised over $129,000, Still only raised $1,000.

“While the money is drying up for Shawn, our campaign’s momentum shows how voters want leadership that focuses on the most pressing issues facing Georgia families: ending Georgia’s abortion ban,  preparing us for the jobs and technology of the future, and protecting the right to vote,” said Ramaswami.

After working in election security in the federal government, Ashwin began his campaign against indicted fake elector Shawn Still. This district is the most competitive seat in the Georgia Senate and top pickup opportunity for Georgia Democrats: it went 48-52 Biden-Trump in 2020 and was won by Warnock 51-49 in the 2022 runoffs. Ramaswami’s campaign has been endorsed by Senator Jon Ossoff and Congresswoman Lucy McBath of Georgia’s 7th congressional district. Ramaswami is also one of four Georgians to serve on the 2024 Democratic National Convention’s credentials committee.

Ashwin is a Johns Creek native and son of immigrants dedicated to public service and advocacy. As a civil servant, Ramaswami worked at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure

Security Agency (CISA) on cybersecurity and election security, working with state and local election offices to secure the 2020 and 2022 elections. Ashwin would break barriers as the first Indian American in the Georgia state legislature. He would be the first Gen Z State Senator in Georgia and the only Georgia state legislator with a computer science and a law degree.

Indian Americans’ Support For Biden Declines

Only 16% Of Indian Americans View Vice President Kamala Harris Very Favorably

Indian American support for President Joe Biden has plummeted over the past 4 years with just 46 percent saying they will vote for him, down from 65 percent in 2020, according to the 2024 Asian American Voter Survey released July 10 morning.

The survey was conducted by AAPI Data, and released jointly by APIA Vote, Asian Americans Advancing Justice, and the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP).

In an interview with New India Abroad ahead of the survey’s release, Dr. Karthick Ramakrishnan, founder of AAPI Data, said, “Among Indian Americans, Biden lost support between 2020 and 2024. But it’s not like (Republican Presidential nominee Donald) Trump gained that much among Indian Americans.”

“What we saw was a jump in the people say they want to vote for someone else. And a big jump among Indian Americans who say that they don’t know who they will vote for.”

“So what the data points to is a fair amount of dissatisfaction among Indian Americans who might have supported Biden in 2020, but are not satisfied with that choice in 2024. That said, Biden still beats Trump in a head-to-head match-up among Indian Americans and among Asian Americans more generally,” said Ramakrishnan.

46 percent of Indian Americans polled said they would vote for Biden, while 29 percent said they would vote for Trump. 5 percent said they would vote for another candidate, while 20 percent said they did not know.

In terms of political party affiliation, 47 percent of Indian Americans identify as Democrats, while 21 percent identify as Republicans. 25 percent of Indian American voters are Independent, while 5 percent are undecided, representing a significant bloc that could successfully be courted by either party.

The President’s perceived poor handling of the economy, including inflation, is a big issue for Indian American voters. And there is also dissatisfaction with his immigration policy. Some Democrats feel he’s not doing enough to protect immigrant rights, while others feel he has not done enough to stem the tide at the border.

In the past two weeks after a disastrous debate performance by Biden June 27, there has been increasing chatter for the President to drop out of the race. Ramakrishnan said Indian American support for Biden would likely remain about the same, if the survey was taken today.

Support for Trump has increased marginally, as Asian American voters feel he is better equipped to take on the failing economy and the migrant crisis at US borders.

Indian American support for Vice President Kamala Harris has also diminished, with just 16 percent of Indian Americans saying they view her very favorably, and 38 percent saying they view her somewhat favorably. 48 percent view her unfavorably, while 4 percent say they don’t know enough about her. Harris has been discussed as the obvious choice to lead the Democratic ticket should Biden choose to drop out.

“Harris is associated with Biden. So I think that accounts for some of that diminishment in support,” said Ramakrishnan, adding that perceptions of a poor performance on immigration may also have played a role. “It’s a far cry from what we saw in 2020, where you saw an outburst of pride among Indian Americans and South Asians. I think some of that novelty has likely worn off.”

“But looking ahead, if there is an opportunity for Harris to be a potential candidate for president this year, I think you’ll probably see another burst of activity and potentially another burst of pride.

Support for former Republican presidential hopefuls Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy were slightly higher among Indian Americans. “There may be such a thing as ethnic pride, but it does not hold a candle to partisanship, which is the biggest determinant of how Indian Americans will vote,” said Ramakrishnan.

Key issues for Indian Americans include: more restrictive gun laws, language access, family-based immigration, and climate change.

Obama and Pelosi Privately Question Biden’s 2024 Chances, Urged to Intervene by Anxious

Democrats

Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi have held private discussions about Joe Biden and the future of his 2024 campaign. Both the former president and the ex-speaker have voiced concerns over the increasing difficulty they foresee in Biden’s ability to defeat Donald Trump. However, neither has determined a clear course of action.

Democrats are eager to end the internal discord to focus on defeating Trump. They are urging either Obama or Pelosi to step in, given that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer lacks Biden’s trust and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries doesn’t have a strong enough relationship with Biden to effectively deliver the message.

CNN interviewed over a dozen members of Congress, operatives, and individuals close to both Obama and Pelosi. Many feel Biden’s candidacy is nearing its end, and it’s now a matter of how it unfolds, despite Thursday night’s news conference.

If Obama and Pelosi think otherwise, several leading Democrats argue they must clearly communicate this soon to prevent further damage, with less than four months until the election.

Pelosi’s colleagues hope she can resolve the turmoil that has plagued Democrats for the past two weeks. Many believe this can happen if she convinces Biden to withdraw. While Pelosi has spoken to Biden since the debate, she has indicated that she does not view Biden’s decision to stay in the race as final. Nonetheless, through an aide, she declined to comment further.

Obama’s silence over the past two weeks has left many leading Democrats feeling abandoned. After the debate, he posted on X, “Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know,” echoing this sentiment at a fundraiser for House Democrats. Obama’s reluctance to publicly address the situation has heightened the anxiety within the party.

Despite his public silence, Obama’s skepticism about Biden’s chances is widely known in Washington. When the history of this turbulent period in American politics is documented, Obama and Pelosi’s influence will be more evident, according to sources familiar with the matter. They have acted as guiding figures for a panicked party.

“They are watching and waiting for President Biden to reach a decision on his own,” a longtime Democrat close to them told CNN, under the condition of anonymity to avoid appearing disrespectful to Biden.

The Biden campaign declined to comment.

While acknowledging that Obama and Pelosi have discussed Biden, a spokesperson for Pelosi told CNN, “There is no member of Congress who would have any knowledge of any conversation that Speaker Pelosi would have with President Obama. Anyone who says they do is not speaking the truth.”

Obama has been receiving more calls than he’s making, according to those who have spoken to him. When he does talk to anxious Democratic donors and officials, he listens more than he speaks, carefully avoiding taking positions that might leak.

This approach was also evident in his call with Biden after the debate. While Biden suggested to others that Obama was supportive of him weathering the storm, others familiar with the call said Obama maintained his role as a “sounding board and private counselor.” He prodded and played devil’s advocate but did not take a position.

In recent conversations with Democrats, Obama has dismissed the idea that he could influence Biden’s decision even if he wanted to. This highlights their complicated, yet loyal, relationship. Their relationship has grown more complex since Obama left office and their weekly lunches at the White House ended. The two now speak far less frequently than their advisers often suggest.

If Obama were to try to steer Biden to step down, he is aware of how it might be perceived. Biden has previously written that he felt Obama was not encouraging when he considered entering the Democratic primaries after his son Beau’s death in 2015. Though Obama believed he was helping Biden focus on his grief and avoid a tough primary campaign against Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, Biden might view another such conversation differently.

“Biden would say, ‘Well, Mr. President, you already used that chip in 2015 and it got us Donald Trump,’” speculated a longtime 2020 campaign aide. “I think it would harden him more.”

Obama is also cautious about giving Trump any new material to use against him.

Historically, Obama has seen his role as unifying the party and validating its direction to skeptical members. So far, he has not committed to playing this role in the debate over Biden’s candidacy. “Well he’s known as no-drama Obama,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, a Missouri Democrat. “So if there’s drama, then he’s the one to deal with it.”

Obama’s public restraint is seen by some close to him as a way to preserve his position if he needs to have a frank, difficult conversation with Biden.

“He is going to be all in for the Democratic ticket. No matter who our nominee is, he will be busting his a** helping to make sure that person wins in November,” said one person who speaks with Obama regularly.

Obama has supported Biden at fundraising events this year, including one in Los Angeles where George Clooney later expressed concerns about Biden’s performance.

Biden had traveled from Italy after several days of G-7 meetings, flying overnight across five time zones to attend the fundraiser, because campaign co-chair Jeffrey Katzenberg insisted on the Hollywood-themed event, and Clooney was only available on that day. Obama questioned the logic of such a grueling schedule for any presidential candidate.

“He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate,” Clooney wrote in an essay in The New York Times, urging Biden to step aside.

Clooney’s comments angered some Biden loyalists, who suspected Obama’s involvement. Though Obama was aware of the op-ed, he did not try to stop it, which some see as maintaining neutrality, while others view it as betrayal.

Obama spent more time with Biden backstage and on stage than Clooney did. Those present attributed Biden’s condition to jet lag. The infamous video of Obama leading Biden off stage was more about Obama wanting to leave.

An Obama aide declined to comment on whether Obama still believed Biden’s condition was due to jet lag.

Pelosi re-broke the dam when she appeared on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” and cast doubt on Biden’s candidacy. Privately, she advised colleagues to avoid embarrassing Biden during the NATO summit. Yet, her comments were taken as a green light by more Democrats to call for Biden to step aside.

Pelosi has known Biden for decades and has been one of his staunchest defenders. She has nothing to lose now that she’s no longer speaker.

“I think at this moment, if Biden ends up stepping down as the nominee, she will prove to be the most important Democratic leader,” said one House Democrat. “She’s the one in a situation like this, especially generationally, who has the credibility to weigh in on something that is so sensitive and important.”

Pelosi plans to return to San Francisco on Friday.

Frail Biden’s NATO Summit Dominates Amid Fears of Trump Return

At his final NATO Summit, President Joe Biden, facing political and physical frailty, presides over an alliance at its strongest point. This juxtaposition hasn’t gone unnoticed among NATO officials from multiple European nations, who express alarm at Biden’s apparent decline and worry about a potential replacement by a hostile Donald Trump in November.

NATO officials are saddened by Biden’s deteriorating situation and frustrated that it detracts from what was meant to be a celebratory summit. They are increasingly resigned to his potential defeat in November, fearing it could halt or reverse the alliance’s recent progress, jeopardizing Ukraine’s defense against Russia and the broader stability that has been a cornerstone of NATO since its inception during the Cold War.

“It’s a very weird feeling to be in Europe listening to the president of the United States, and you’re more stressed about whether he will go off script than being excited to listen to the leader of the free world,” a senior European diplomat said. “You’re worried if he knows which direction he’s going or whether he’s going to fall or what he’s going to forget or if he’ll say ‘North Korea’ when he meant ‘South Korea.’ It’s just a weird experience.”

As visiting leaders applauded Biden’s speech, they and their aides were acutely aware of the context. They noted the fallout from Biden’s poor debate performance on June 27, ongoing doubts among Democrats about his ability to defeat Trump, and the precariousness of his candidacy hinging on every word and step.

“He didn’t look good,” remarked a Washington-based diplomat from one of the European countries.

Biden’s solo press conference Thursday evening will be critical, both for him politically and for the alliance.

“We would prefer a more stable situation in the U.S.,” said an official granted anonymity.

The focus on Biden distracts from Trump and the implications of his potential return, which worries officials. Trump, who criticized NATO allies for not spending enough on defense and threatened to withdraw from the alliance, remains a significant concern.

“Everyone’s focusing on Biden’s appearance and less on Trump’s statements about NATO,” the senior European diplomat added. “He’s not that much younger.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy referenced November’s presidential election as critical, urging NATO members to act with urgency and “not to wait for November.”

Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama, noted that NATO allies are accelerating defense spending in response to the war in Ukraine and the increasing likelihood of a Trump victory.

“NATO allies understand that the probability of a Trump administration has gone up dramatically since the debate,” Daalder said. “That’s just a reality people have to deal with, so that means more outreach to the Trump camp in the short term and more determination by European allies to get to a place where those countries are doing more things on their own.”

During the first working session of NATO’s 75th anniversary summit, heads of state offered remarks focused on alliance unity and support for Ukraine. However, many faced awkward questions about Biden’s weakened political position and the implications of his potential electoral loss.

“I’m not going to comment on this topic,” said Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, walking off after a brief statement. Other leaders responded with platitudes about respecting America’s democratic process and expressed faith that NATO would endure even if Trump returns to office.

Alexander Stubb, president of Finland, lamented the “toxic” level of U.S. political polarization but expressed optimism that Washington will continue to need European allies even if Trump wins.

“Of course we’re looking at elections throughout the world, and the American elections are very important,” said Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo. “But let’s be extremely clear, it’s the American citizens who will make their choice and that is a choice we will respect.”

De Croo, who recently met with Biden, praised his speech before NATO leaders but avoided commenting on Biden’s shaky debate performance.

“It’s incredibly awkward for our allies to get asked these questions about Biden’s mental acuity,” said Brett Bruen, a former State Department official under Obama. “They have their prepared pivot points, but it isn’t easy.”

The NATO summit, ending Thursday, provided a distraction for Biden as he faces growing Democratic resistance to his reelection bid. Despite limited time for outreach to lawmakers and donors, his role on the world stage aimed to assuage doubts and remind political allies of the importance of experience and shared values.

His forceful opening speech emphasized NATO’s commitment to Ukraine and was well-received by lawmakers and pundits.

“Everyone was watching with bated breath as he took the stage,” said Rachel Rizzo, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center. “He successfully quelled concerns because he came across as forceful and presidential. But his age and his ability to do this job for another four years are certainly questions European leaders are still asking themselves.”

Biden’s aides recognize the critical importance of avoiding public stumbles, particularly during Thursday’s news conference. Even so, the growing chorus of supporters urging him to end his campaign might prove insurmountable.

As Biden greeted 31 leaders and posed for photos, foreign diplomats closely monitored his movements and tone, waiting to see the version of the president they saw in the first debate.

Several leaders have addressed the possibility of Trump’s return, noting that 23 of 32 member nations have met or exceeded the defense spending goal, a major issue for Trump.

Denmark’s foreign minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, recalled Trump’s criticism of NATO spending levels in 2018, suggesting that the notion of “Trump-proofing” the alliance should be seen as “future-proofing.”

“We have to understand it is in our own best interests to spend more…and that will give us an upper hand toward anyone in the White House,” Rasmussen said.

However, the focus on Biden may overshadow the broader message NATO leaders want to convey to the American public during this summit on U.S. soil.

“The Americans need to hear from us all that the problem is not Ukraine,” said Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže. “The problem is Russia.”

An anonymous official from a NATO country expressed concern that the summit’s substantive actions might not resonate with a U.S. audience.

“All the Americans are looking for at this summit is the photo op of Biden with allies,” the official said. “We’re really concerned that the world will essentially be leaderless for the next several months, and then we don’t know what comes after that.”

The prospect of Trump leading NATO’s most indispensable member country again creates deep anxiety among officials and heads of state, despite confident statements about maintaining recent momentum.

“I am hoping, praying for, expecting the transatlantic alliance will be strong and alive also in the coming years,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said. “Hopefully, no matter what happens in the U.S., that will be the case.”

Many officials now believe Biden will not be reelected if he remains in the race. Estonia’s defense minister, Hanno Pevkur, addressed the uncertainty of future U.S. support for Ukraine, speaking of Trump’s return as a foregone conclusion.

“I would like to see what the new administration will do,” Pevkur said. “What happens in January when the new president takes office?”

Poll Reveals Biden’s Tenuous Lead Against Trump, Clinton and Harris Emerge as Strong Contenders

A new survey from a leading Democratic pollster shows President Joe Biden still in the running against Donald Trump, but facing increased risk of losing the election, while other top Democrats are gaining traction.

The national poll, conducted by Bendixen & Amandi following Biden’s problematic debate and shared exclusively with POLITICO, reveals Biden trailing Trump, 42 percent to 43 percent.

Among the 86 percent of likely voters who watched the debate, only 29 percent believe Biden has the mental capacity and physical stamina to serve another term, compared to 61 percent who do not. Additionally, only 33 percent feel he should remain the Democratic nominee, while 52 percent think he should step aside. Even among Democrats, just half support Biden continuing as the nominee or believe he is fit to serve another term.

Vice President Kamala Harris is now slightly ahead of Trump, 42 percent to 41 percent, according to the survey. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, despite not being a serious candidate, is ahead of Harris and leads Trump 43 percent to 41 percent.

The poll also examined other potential Democratic tickets and found a Clinton-Harris combination in the strongest position, beating Trump 43 percent to 40 percent, a four-point advantage over Biden-Harris.

Fernand Amandi, a veteran Miami-based pollster whose firm advised former President Barack Obama and conducted this poll, noted that more than one-third of Democrats do not view Biden as fit to run and think he should not continue. “Voters have significant concerns about President Biden’s advanced age, and their concerns have only grown louder,” he said. “But [they are] still not enough where it has made the race a blowout for Trump.”

Amandi expressed surprise at Hillary Clinton’s strength in the poll. “I’m really surprised by Hillary’s strength,” he said. “While some dismiss her as yesterday’s news and a candidate of the past, voters at least in this poll suggest they may be open to a Clinton comeback and that a ticket with Clinton as president and Harris as vice president is even ‘stronger together’,” referring to Clinton’s 2016 campaign slogan.

The poll also included other leading Democrats who might run if Biden steps aside, though they trailed both Harris and Trump. California Gov. Gavin Newsom lags behind Trump, 37 percent to 40 percent, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is slightly further behind Trump at 36 percent to 40 percent.

The survey of 1,000 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, was conducted by phone and email between July 2 and July 6. This comes as more Democratic officials, donors, and activists increase pressure on Biden to exit the race following his June 27 debate debacle.

Anthony Williams, special projects director at Bendixen & Amandi, noted that the openness to someone like Clinton shows a desire for a candidate tested on the international stage. “There’s a certain sophistication at play in the way voters are reacting. They are not knee-jerk reacting to the names that are being bandied about on television,” Williams said. “They are struggling with the same question the party is struggling with: Do we go with experience, or do we go with new? And I think, given everything going on with the world right now, if they can find someone with experience, that would help them sleep a little better.”

“We’re talking about relatively small differences — but important differences in a race that could come down to a couple points,” Williams added. “It’s almost as if [Clinton] finishes out Biden’s term in the experience lane.”

A Democratic ticket led by Harris with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate also did well, beating Trump by two percentage points, 42 percent to 40 percent. However, a Harris-Whitmer ticket is 2 points behind Trump, 39 to 41 percent.

Clinton, who at 76 is younger than both Trump and Biden, has publicly vowed not to run for president again and has reaffirmed her support for Biden after his Atlanta debate disaster. Shapiro, 51, took office last year after serving as attorney general and is a popular politician in his battleground state. Newsom and Whitmer are in their final terms and have been raising funds and campaigning for Biden.

Despite calls to step aside, Biden has pledged to keep running. He and White House officials pointed to his busy travel schedule before the debate and his bad cold as reasons for his poor performance. They stated that he has not had a cognitive examination and there is no reason for one.

The poll included a provocative question about whether voters would support Biden if he were cognitively diminished due to age and unlikely to complete another four years if it meant preventing Trump from winning. Forty-eight percent of voters said they would not support Biden for that reason, while 44 percent said they would, including 75 percent of Democrats. The strongest support for Biden came from Black voters, with 55 percent willing to back him even if he suffered age-related impairment and couldn’t complete the term.

Amandi noted that these answers show the floor of likely voters nationally who, despite reservations about Biden’s age and ability, would not let that stop them from opposing Trump, whom a majority see as a major threat.

In the poll, 53 percent of respondents viewed Trump becoming president as a grave danger to democracy in the U.S., while 37 percent dismissed it as partisan rhetoric.

“The debate exposed damage to both candidates — because one would have expected, in the aftermath of what the president himself described as a disastrous debate, for Trump to be opening up a significant lead,” Amandi said. “We’re not seeing that. And the backstop for that is voters having legitimate concerns about what Trump winning the presidency would mean for the future of the country and the democracy.”

Forty-eight percent of likely voters disagreed with the Supreme Court’s recent decision that Trump has immunity from criminal prosecutions for actions he took as president to subvert the 2020 election, while 40 percent agreed.

Amandi commissioned and conducted the poll to understand where likely voters stood after the June 27 debate — whether they would stick with Biden despite his struggles, and, if not, who else might be a viable alternative against Trump just three months before some states begin early voting.

“The debate has reset the race from the perspective of what it means if Biden continues on or if we go down an unprecedented and uncharted path of making a nominee switch because he decides to step aside,” he said. “Are there alternatives that would be competitive with Trump? The answer is there are two: Clinton and Harris, who have a small but significant lead.”

Democratic Concerns Grow as Biden Clings to Nomination Amidst Calls to Step Aside

On a pivotal day in Washington, President Joe Biden held onto the Democratic nomination, though concerns about his decision to stay in the race were starkly highlighted. One of his party’s senators warned on CNN that Donald Trump could win in a “landslide,” underlining the risks involved in Biden’s refusal to step aside.

Biden’s determination has left Democrats increasingly worried that the president could jeopardize not only the White House but also their chances of retaking the House or retaining the Senate—challenges already seen as uphill battles.

The White House managed to quell rebellions in emotional meetings with Senate and House Democrats on Tuesday. However, even some of Biden’s supporters expressed doubts about his strategies and his ability to run a successful campaign. Uncertainty about Biden’s future grew on Wednesday with comments from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and actor George Clooney, who urged Biden to step aside.

Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado was among three Democrats who privately expressed concerns about Biden’s chances of winning in November, sources told CNN’s Dana Bash. Bennet later publicly voiced his fears. “Donald Trump is on track, I think, to win this election and maybe win it by a landslide and take with him the Senate and the House,” Bennet said on CNN. “So for me, this isn’t a question about polling. It’s not a question about politics. It’s a moral question about the future of our country.”

“The White House, in the time since that disastrous debate, I think, has done nothing to really demonstrate that they have a plan to win this election,” he added.

While Bennet’s comments do not reflect the public stance of all Democratic senators, the debate and its aftermath have undeniably stirred deep concerns within the party.

Pelosi alluded to this anxiety during an MSNBC appearance, suggesting that Biden’s place on the Democratic ticket was still in question despite his firm stance. “It’s up to the president to decide if he is going to run. We’re all encouraging him to make that decision because time is running short,” she said. “I want him to do whatever he decides to do and that’s the way it is.”

In a striking op-ed in The New York Times, Clooney criticized Biden after attending a fundraiser with him last month. “It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fundraiser was not the Joe ‘big F-ing deal’ Biden of 2010. He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate,” Clooney wrote. “We are not going to win in November with this president,” he warned, noting that lawmakers he spoke with privately shared this view.

The last two weeks have significantly weakened Biden’s standing within a party already lukewarm about his campaign. His recent missteps threaten to narrow an already fragile path to reelection against a revitalized Trump, who held a fiery rally in Florida on Tuesday, nine days before he’s set to accept the Republican nomination.

Deep unease over Biden’s prospects permeated through Democratic senators and representatives in Washington on Tuesday, with venting sessions taking place behind closed doors. Despite growing calls for him to step aside, Biden managed to maintain his grip on the nomination with support from Senate and House leaders, albeit lukewarm.

In a letter to lawmakers on Monday, Biden reaffirmed his commitment to the race: “I am firmly committed to staying in this race.” This, coupled with the primary voters’ decisions, left his critics with little room to maneuver. Pelosi, however, hinted that the matter was still open. “Just hold off, whatever you’re thinking, either tell somebody privately but you don’t have to put that out on the table until we see how we go this week,” she advised Democrats. After her comments circulated widely, a spokesperson clarified that Pelosi “fully supports whatever President Biden decides to do.”

Rep. Ritchie Torres provided a stark warning to CNN about the potential impact on other races if Biden continues his bid for reelection. “If we are going on a political suicide mission, then we should at least be honest about it,” he said, adding, “There must be a serious reckoning with the down-ballot effect of whomever we nominate.”

Biden faces another critical test on Thursday with a solo press conference at the end of the NATO summit. Any mistakes or confusion could further undermine Democratic support.

The crisis surrounding Biden’s campaign reflects the broader turmoil within the Democratic Party, which is grappling with concerns about his viability, strength, and mental capacity less than four months from Election Day. There is scant evidence that Biden is ready to engage in intensive campaign activities, which many Democrats believe are essential for a successful run. Some Democrats doubt his chances of winning in November, while the urgency of the situation is magnified by Trump’s strong political position.

Tuesday was seen as a crucial day for Biden, as it marked the first time lawmakers had gathered en masse since the debate and the July Fourth recess. Despite an increase in calls for him to step aside, Biden managed to stabilize his campaign’s crisis.

“We do want to turn the page. We want to get to the other side of this,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters, though the president’s political challenges as the oldest-ever president remain significant.

Biden delivered one of his strongest recent public appearances at the NATO summit in Washington on Tuesday, even as the effects of aging were evident in his speech and movements. “Remember, the biggest cost and the greatest risk will be if Russia wins in Ukraine. We cannot let that happen,” he said, praising NATO as “the single greatest, most effective defense alliance in the history of the world.”

The summit was intended to highlight Biden’s leadership as a key figure in the West since World War II and to contrast him with Trump, who often criticized America’s European allies. Instead, it has become a test of Biden’s mental acuity.

White House officials told CNN’s Kayla Tausche that Biden’s speech went according to plan and hoped it would allow him to resume “business as usual.” However, every public appearance by the president now feels like an excruciating wait for potential gaffes, awkward moments, or freezes. His debate performance left an unflattering impression on 50 million viewers, and it’s a low bar for a president to deliver a short, scripted speech without issues.

The situation is unlikely to improve over the next four months due to the inherent challenges of Biden’s matchup with Trump and his decision to run for a term that would end when he is 86.

Nevertheless, it’s too early to count Biden out. Voters decide elections, not lawmakers or media commentary. Biden has repeatedly defied predictions of his political demise and has shown resilience despite personal and political setbacks. Trump, a convicted criminal, has a knack for alienating moderate, suburban, and swing voters with his extreme rhetoric and threats.

The Republican National Convention in Milwaukee next week, which will likely turn into a MAGA festival, is seen by the Biden camp as an opportunity to highlight the contrast with Trump, which Biden’s debate performance had temporarily obscured.

Most post-debate national polls suggest Biden lost a couple of points to Trump, making an already close race tighter. However, there is little quality polling in swing states since the debate. Biden was generally trailing Trump in many battlegrounds before the debate and needed to reset the race, but instead, he created negative momentum.

Biden’s failure to frame a sharp contrast with Trump on key issues like abortion, taxes, character, and Trump’s threat to democracy and US values has fueled Democratic despair.

This disappointment was evident as lawmakers entered their meetings on Tuesday, with many avoiding reporters afterward. A source told CNN’s Bash that Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana joined Bennet in expressing doubts about Biden’s chances.

“It’s true that I said that,” Bennet told CNN. “Donald Trump is on track, I think, to win this election and maybe win it by a landslide and take with him the Senate and the House.”

Sen. Angus King, an independent from Maine who caucuses with Democrats, said senators believe Biden must engage in unscripted situations to address voters’ questions. Asked about the risks of Biden stumbling, King replied: “It seems to me that’s a risk they have to take. If he’s OK, it shouldn’t be a problem.”

Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman defended Biden. “We concluded that Joe Biden is old; we found out, and the polling came back that he’s old,” Fetterman told CNN. “But we also agreed that he’s our guy.”

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, asked about Biden, responded tersely, “I’m with Joe,” indicating his support.

Rep. Jerrold Nadler, who had privately doubted Biden’s candidacy, said he now supports him, though his decision seemed driven by the difficulty of replacing Biden rather than confidence in his strength. “I’m not resigned to it. He made very clear he’s going to run. He’s got an excellent record, one of the most excellent presidents of the last century. Trump would be an absolute disaster for democracy; so, I’m enthusiastically supporting Biden,” Nadler said.

The Congressional Black Caucus, a powerful House Democratic Caucus faction, has also bolstered Biden’s support. Many CBC members are in safe districts and may face less pressure than frontline Democrats critical of Biden’s debate performance. Texas Rep. Marc Veasey voiced concerns for vulnerable colleagues, criticizing Biden’s post-debate efforts. “Whatever I have seen so far hasn’t shown me that that’s going to be enough to get there. I just don’t think that dog is gonna hunt,” Veasey told CNN. “I think that he has a long way to go and I think there are stronger candidates that would be more likely to beat Trump at this point, but if he says that he is going to stay in, (then) he’s the nominee.”

Rep. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey praised Biden’s presidency but became the seventh House Democrat to call for him to step aside. “Because I know President Biden cares deeply about the future of our country, I am asking that he declare that he won’t run for reelection and will help lead us through a process toward a new nominee.”

Some Democratic leaders sought to rally their members by attacking Trump. “Every single member of the House Democratic Caucus is clear-eyed about what the stakes of this election are,” said Rep. Pete Aguilar, the caucus chairman. “Donald Trump cannot be allowed near the Oval Office and his extremist allies must never be allowed to pass a national abortion ban or their dangerous Project 2025, which would erode our democracy and enable Trump’s worst impulses,” the California Democrat said. His forceful presentation underscored the missed opportunities Biden had in the debate.

In Las Vegas, Vice President Kamala Harris attacked Trump with the vigor of a former prosecutor. “I will say that someone who vilifies immigrants, who promotes xenophobia, someone who stokes hate should never again have the chance to stand behind a microphone and the seal of the President of the United States,” Harris said.

For Democrats who believe Harris would be a stronger nominee, her dynamic delivery highlighted an alternative path that Biden has closed off.

Biden Adopts Aggressive Strategy to Counter Calls for Withdrawal and Solidify Position as Democratic Nominee

President Biden is adopting an aggressive and offensive strategy to counter calls for him to step down as the Democratic candidate following his poor debate performance against former President Trump.

This new, assertive approach is a stark departure from the previous week when some critics said he was slow to respond to Democrats and failed to counterattack amid increasing demands for his withdrawal.

The goal is to buy time as he and his advisors strategize ahead of the Democratic convention, portraying Biden as the one in control, according to Democrats close to his campaign.

“The strategy is a defiant one,” said a strategist close to Biden’s inner circle. “It’s basically, ‘I’ve got the delegates, so I control the process here,’ and essentially, ‘I control the narrative. Democratic voters voted for me to be the nominee, and I’m going to be the nominee in a few weeks.’”

In a letter to Democratic members of Congress on Monday, Biden called for unity behind him to defeat Trump, firmly rejecting calls for him to step down before lawmakers return to Congress.

“The question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now. And it’s time for it to end,” Biden wrote. “We have one job, and that is to beat Donald Trump. We have 42 days to the Democratic Convention and 119 days to the general election. Any weakening of resolve or lack of clarity about the task ahead only helps Trump and hurts us.

“It’s time to come together, move forward as a unified party, and defeat Donald Trump,” Biden added.

Simultaneously, the president made a live call to MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program on Monday to respond to his critics.

When co-host Mika Brzezinski introduced him as the presumptive Democratic nominee, a chuckling Biden said, “I’m more than presumptive. I’m going to be the Democratic nominee.”

“The bottom line here is that we’re not going anywhere. I am not going anywhere,” Biden told Brzezinski and co-host Joe Scarborough. “I wouldn’t be running if I didn’t absolutely believe that I am the best candidate to beat Donald Trump.”

Later that day, Biden spoke with major Democratic donors and vowed to beat Trump, declaring he was “done talking about the debate.”

“We can’t waste any more time being distracted,” he told the fundraisers.

More than a dozen Democratic strategists, operatives, and donors interviewed by The Hill expressed uncertainty about whether Biden’s approach would ultimately work.

Questions about the president’s health and stamina persist. On Monday, The New York Times reported that a Parkinson’s disease expert from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center visited the White House eight times from last September until this spring. One of these meetings was with Biden’s physician. The White House refuted the report, stating an examination found no signs of Parkinson’s and that the president is not being treated for it.

Nevertheless, Democrats welcomed Biden’s new strategy, seeing it as a significant improvement over his approach last week.

A former Biden administration official described it as a “good political strategy” by Biden and his team. “They are barreling forward,” the strategist said. “The [Democratic] leadership either seems to be quiet or on board. But what we don’t know is if there is a group of Democrats — not just one by one — who are willing to jump in front of the train.”

The former administration official acknowledged the time constraint — the Democratic convention begins in six weeks — suggesting the strategy could be effective. “Every week he’s still the nominee means it’s more likely he’ll be the nominee,” the official said.

Time is running out for the party to resolve its divisions and unite behind a candidate.

“There’s time but not a lot of it to see how things settle,” said former Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), who chaired the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Israel suggested Biden could use this week’s NATO summit in Washington to remind donors, activists, and voters of his leadership and demonstrate that the debate was an isolated incident.

But, Israel added, “clarity is critical, and this climate of doubt and despair can’t extend beyond the middle of the month.”

Democratic strategist Jim Manley admitted he was watching the fallout from the debate “with clear trepidation,” expressing confusion over Biden’s lack of engagement last week.

“The idea that it took four or five days to reach out to [House Minority Leader Hakeem] Jefferies and [Senate Majority Leader Chuck] Schumer was political malpractice,” Manley said.

However, the revised strategy is a “shot across the bow,” Manley added. “If his goal is to stay in the race, it’s absolutely the right thing to do. They’re sending a strong message to the Hill that they’re not backing down, and they’re drawing a line in the sand.”

Following Biden’s call with donors, one Democratic bundler felt slightly more optimistic: “When Biden has some piss and vinegar in him, how can you not feel better?”

By adopting a more aggressive approach, Biden aims to solidify his position as the Democratic nominee and counter the narrative that he should step down. His recent actions indicate a strong commitment to unifying the party and defeating Trump, despite ongoing concerns about his health and the party’s divisions.

Biden Stands Firm Amid Calls to Drop Reelection Bid, Rallies Democratic Support to Defeat Trump

President Joe Biden stood resolute on Monday against growing calls to withdraw his reelection bid, urging an end to the intraparty turmoil that has plagued Democrats since his disappointing debate performance last month. Key lawmakers expressed their support for Biden to continue his campaign for the 2024 presidential race.

With congressional Democrats returning to Washington, torn between reviving Biden’s campaign or pushing him out, Biden addressed them in an open letter. He sought to quell doubts about his capability to lead for another term, emphasizing the party’s “one job” of defeating the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump, in November.

After several attempts, Biden and his campaign’s efforts to consolidate Democratic support seemed to be bearing fruit, though not all doubts were dispelled. By late Monday, a surge of public support from Democrats emerged, with Biden allies attempting to drown out voices urging him to step aside.

In his two-page letter, Biden stated, “the question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now. And it’s time for it to end.”

“We have 42 days to the Democratic Convention and 119 days to the general election,” Biden wrote, distributed by his reelection campaign. “Any weakening of resolve or lack of clarity about the task ahead only helps Trump and hurts us. It’s time to come together, move forward as a unified party, and defeat Donald Trump.”

Biden reinforced his message in a phone interview with MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” insisting that “average Democrats” want him to remain in the race and expressing frustration over calls from party officials for him to step aside.

“They’re big names, but I don’t care what those big names think,” Biden said.

He challenged his critics to “announce for president, challenge me at the convention” or support him against Trump. Later, Biden spoke with his national finance committee, while First Lady Jill Biden campaigned in three states, engaging with veterans and military families.

“For all the talk out there about this race, Joe has made it clear that he’s all in,” she told a military crowd in Wilmington, North Carolina. “That’s the decision that he’s made, and just as he has always supported my career, I am all in, too.”

According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, Democratic voters are divided on whether Biden should continue as the party’s nominee or if a different candidate should be chosen.

On Capitol Hill, notable support came from the chair of the House’s Congressional Progressive Caucus, Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who deemed the threat of a second Trump presidency too significant to abandon Biden. However, Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, a vulnerable Democrat, said, “President Biden has got to prove to the American people — including me — that he’s up to the job for another four years.”

Biden’s letter angered some House Democrats, who wanted direct communication from him. According to a House aide, lawmakers felt slighted by suggestions they were out of touch with voters.

Biden met virtually with the Congressional Black Caucus, a strong supporter base, for 30 minutes, discussing his policy proposals for a second term, expressing gratitude, and criticizing Trump, as per a person familiar with the call.

While not all Black Caucus members voiced opinions, none opposed the president, the person said.

Biden plans to meet this week with the Congressional Progressive Caucus, according to Jayapal.

Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre mentioned that Biden underwent three neurological exams during his White House tenure, part of his annual physical exams, and was neither diagnosed with nor treated for Parkinson’s.

The political drama unfolds just over a month before the Democratic National Convention and a week before Republicans gather in Milwaukee to renominate Trump.

Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass., a progressive lawmaker, expressed her support for Biden and concern that Democrats were losing focus on defeating Trump. “We’re losing the plot here,” she said.

Rep. Maxine Waters of California, a prominent Black Caucus member, stated that those opposing Biden “can speak for themselves or what they want to do, but I know what I’m doing because I’m a big Biden supporter.”

Rep. Frank Pallone of New Jersey, top Democrat on the Energy and Commerce Committee, added, “I’m tired of all this speculation. I just want to concentrate on the fact that we have to defeat Trump.”

Trump predicted Biden would stay in the race, telling Fox News Channel’s Sean Hannity, “It looks to me like he may very well stay in. He’s got an ego and he doesn’t want to quit. He doesn’t want to do that.”

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, supportive of Biden despite addressing his conference’s concerns, reiterated his stance, saying “same answer” when asked if he supported Biden after an evening Capitol meeting.

Other House Democrats avoided questions, with Rep. Debbie Dingell, D-Mich., stating she was off to another meeting and Reps. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia and Lauren Underwood of Illinois declining to comment.

Rep. Adam Smith of Washington, top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, publicly called for Biden to step aside, stating it would be “a mistake” for Biden to continue his campaign. “I’m calling on President Biden to step down,” Smith said on social media.

Biden’s allies anticipated more direct engagement with lawmakers. On a call with his campaign co-chairs, Biden repeatedly asked whom he needed to engage with, who needed to hear from him, and who had unanswered questions or concerns, according to Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del.

“He is out there doing his job as a candidate and doing his job as president,” Coons said.

Rep. Annie Kuster of New Hampshire, chair of the New Democrat Coalition, requested House leadership invite Biden to speak to the entire Democratic caucus.

“If the president’s going to stay in the race, then help us respond to questions from our constituents,” she said. “And it’s so much easier to say, I was with him.”

Rep. Nanette Barragan of California, chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, who supports Biden and recently campaigned with the First Lady in Pennsylvania, said Biden “should talk to as many members as possible.”

Senators returning to Washington were generally hesitant to criticize Biden, awaiting a Democratic caucus meeting to address concerns. It was unclear if any Senate Democrats would publicly call for Biden to step down, despite private concerns over the last ten days.

“He ran an excellent campaign, and he’s been an excellent president,” said Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado. “And I think what everybody is trying to satisfy is that’s the same trajectory and path that we’re on today.”

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer avoided questions about Biden’s reelection but stated, “As I’ve said before, I’m for Joe.”

Sen. Alex Padilla of California added it was “time to quit the hand-wringing and get back to door knocking.”

While some wealthy donors showed discomfort, strategists for House and Senate races reported record fundraising, with donors viewing congressional Democrats as a “firewall” against Trump.

Modi’s Russia Visit: Talks with Putin on Ukraine Conflict and Expanding Economic Ties

Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Russia on Monday for his first visit to the country in nearly five years. His discussions with President Vladimir Putin are set to cover a range of topics, from economic cooperation to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

The last meeting between the two leaders occurred in September 2022, during a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Uzbekistan. This was months after Russia had invaded Ukraine, leading to Western sanctions that strained New Delhi-Moscow relations. During that meeting, Modi urged Putin to end the conflict, stating, “today’s era is not of war.”

Upon his arrival at Moscow’s Vnukovo-II VIP airport, Modi was greeted by Denis Manturov, Russia’s first deputy prime minister, who extended a tri-services guard of honor. Manturov, senior to the deputy prime minister who had welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping recently, escorted Modi to his hotel.

Before the 22nd India-Russia Summit on Tuesday, Putin hosted Modi for a private meeting and dinner at his dacha in Novo-Ogaryovo, a privilege reserved for a select few visiting leaders. This private setting allowed the leaders to discuss sensitive issues like the Ukraine conflict and the repatriation of Indian nationals recruited into the Russian Army.

Economic cooperation, including energy, trade, manufacturing, and fertilizers, is the primary focus of this visit. In the context of the Ukraine war, an Indian official mentioned that the Indian side would stress that “a solution cannot be found on the battlefield.”

In a statement before his departure from New Delhi, Modi expressed his anticipation to “review all aspects of bilateral cooperation with my friend President Vladimir Putin and share perspectives on various regional and global issues.” He added, “We seek to play a supportive role for a peaceful and stable region.”

Modi highlighted that the special and privileged strategic partnership between India and Russia had progressed over the past decade in areas such as energy, security, trade, investment, health, education, culture, tourism, and people-to-people exchanges.

On Tuesday, Modi’s engagements will start with an interaction with the Indian community. He will then lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at the Kremlin and visit the Rosatom pavilion, showcasing the latest advancements in nuclear energy. Modi and Putin will hold restricted discussions followed by delegation-level talks during the annual summit.

In a significant move, Modi chose Russia for his first bilateral visit in his third term, just weeks after traveling to Italy for the G7 Summit’s outreach session. This decision is viewed as an assertion of India’s policy of “strategic autonomy” in its foreign affairs and the significance New Delhi places on its relationship with Moscow.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar noted that the annual summit, last held in 2021, provides an opportunity for Modi and Putin to discuss crucial issues like the trade imbalance. While India and Russia had aimed for bilateral trade of $30 billion by 2025, it surged to $65.7 billion in 2023-24, primarily due to India’s purchases of discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions and a price cap. Trade is currently skewed in Russia’s favor, with Indian exports amounting to less than $5 billion.

The Indian side is expected to urge Russia to diversify and increase its imports. Both countries will also work on streamlining payments in national currencies and overcoming the constraints imposed by Western sanctions on Russia’s banking system.

Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra mentioned that the early discharge of Indian nationals “misled into the service of the Russian Army” would also be discussed. Although the exact number of Indians serving in the Russian military is unclear, estimates range from 30 to 45. Following the deaths of four Indians on the Ukraine frontlines, India has sought a “verified stop” to further recruitment by the Russian Army.

Despite these discussions, India will continue to navigate the diplomatic complexities of the Ukraine issue. Concurrently with the Modi-Putin summit, US President Joe Biden will host NATO leaders to celebrate the alliance’s 75th anniversary. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who met Modi at the G7 Summit, will also attend the meeting in Washington.

Following his Russia visit, Modi will head to Austria, becoming the first Indian premier to visit the country in over four decades. He will meet President Alexander Van der Bellen and Chancellor Karl Nehammer to discuss enhancing the bilateral “partnership to even greater heights in new and emerging areas of innovation, technology, and sustainable development.” Modi emphasized, “Austria is our steadfast and reliable partner, and we share the ideals of democracy and pluralism.”

Modi and Nehammer will also engage with business leaders from both nations to explore mutually beneficial trade and investment opportunities. Additionally, Modi will interact with the Indian community in Austria.

Research Shows Divisions in the United States on the Role of Religion in Politics

(ZENIT News) A recent Pew Research Center Report reveals profound divisions between Joe Biden’s voters and Donald Trump’s regarding the role that religion should play in the government and politics of the United States. These differences reflect a significant fracture in the perception of the relationship between faith and politics in the country. Contrasting Views on Church-State Separation The Report shows that an overwhelming 86% of Biden voters believe that religion must be kept separate from governmental policy, whereas only 56% of Trump voters share this opinion. In contrast, 43% of Trump supporters opine that governmental policies should support religious values, compared with a mere 13% of Biden followers that agree with this idea.

At the general level, the majority of voters (71%) prefer that religion be kept separate from the government, with only 28% supporting the incorporation of religious values and beliefs in public policies. These numbers have change little in the last years, reflecting a stability in opinions on this topic. Bible ‘s Influence on Laws Opinions also differ considerably regarding the influence the Bible should have on American laws. The majority of Trump’s supporters (69%) believe the Bible should influence legislation, with 36% affirming that it should have “much” influence. On the other hand, 69% of Biden’s followers believe that the Bible should have little or no influence on laws, including 53% that hold it should have no influence at all. Diversity of Opinions According to Religious Affiliation The opinions also vary significantly according to religious affiliation and race. Among Trump voters, 61% of white Evangelicals believe that government policies should support religious values, compared with less than half non-Evangelical white Protestants and Catholics. In contrast, only 16% of Trump followers without religious affiliation agree with this governmental support to religion. Among Biden supporters, black Protestants are the most prone to believe that governmental policies should support religious values (39%), whereas only 7% of non-Evangelical white Protestants and a similar percentage of the non-affiliated religiously are in agreement.

Morality and Belief in God A related question is if it’s necessary to believe in God to be moral and have good values. In general, 67% of voters believe it isn’t necessary, whereas 33% think otherwise. However, among Trump voters, this opinion is more divided, with 45% believing in the necessity of faith for morality. In contrast, only 20% of Biden voters think that belief in God is essential to be moral. Impact of the 2024 Elections These divisions over religion and politics could play a crucial role in the forthcoming presidential election of 2024. The relationship between faith and government not only reflects profound ideological differences, but also how voters perceive the role of the government in the promotion of moral and religious values in American society. The Pew Research Center Report stresses the importance of understanding how religious beliefs influence public policies and how the latter can affect the electoral panorama in the United States. Thank you for reading our content. If you would like to receive ZENIT’s daily e-mail news, you can subscribe for free through this link.

(Research Shows Divisions in the United States on the Role of Religion in Politics | ZENIT – English)

Kamala Harris Emerges as Potential Democratic Candidate for 2024 Amid Rising Support and Republican Concerns

Vice President Kamala Harris has captured the attention of Republican donors, holds significant name recognition, and is gaining support from influential Democratic Party figures. Should President Joe Biden step aside from the 2024 election, Harris would be the natural successor, according to top Democrats. This raises a crucial question: Does Harris have a better chance than Biden of defeating Donald Trump? Despite Biden’s insistence on staying in the race, discussions about Harris’s potential candidacy are intensifying.

If Harris were to become the party’s nominee and win the November 5 election, she would be the first woman president of the United States, and the first African American and Asian individual to serve as vice president. Her tenure in the White House over the past three and a half years has been marked by a slow start, significant staff turnover, and challenging early assignments, such as addressing Central American migration, which did not yield major successes.

As recently as last year, concerns within the White House and Biden’s campaign team regarding Harris’s potential liability to the campaign were prevalent. However, her recent efforts on abortion rights and engagement with young voters have significantly altered this perception among Democratic officials.

The Biden-Harris campaign expressed, “She is proud to be his running mate and looks forward to serving at his side for four more years.” Recent polls indicate that Harris might have an edge over Biden in a potential matchup against Trump. A CNN poll released on July 2 showed Trump leading Biden by six percentage points (49% to 43%), while Harris trailed Trump by a narrower margin of 47% to 45%, within the margin of error. The poll also revealed that independents favor Harris over Trump (43% to 40%) and that moderate voters prefer her 51% to 39%.

Another poll by Reuters/Ipsos following a debate between Trump and a struggling Biden showed Harris and Trump nearly tied, with 42% supporting Harris and 43% backing Trump. Among possible alternatives to Biden, only former First Lady Michelle Obama, who has shown no interest in running, polled higher. Internal polling from the Biden campaign indicated that Harris has similar odds as Biden of beating Trump, with 45% of voters supporting her compared to 48% for Trump.

Several influential Democrats have signaled their support for Harris as the best option if Biden steps aside. These include U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn, a key figure in Biden’s 2020 victory; Rep. Gregory Meeks, a senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus; and Summer Lee, a House Democrat from Pennsylvania. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has also reportedly indicated support for Harris in private discussions.

Republican donors are taking Harris seriously, with some preferring Trump to face Biden rather than her. Pauline Lee, a Trump fundraiser in Nevada, stated, “I would prefer Biden to stay in place,” and criticized Biden as “incompetent.” Wall Street, a crucial Democratic fundraising hub, is also beginning to show a preference for Harris. Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group, remarked, “Biden is already behind Trump, and is unlikely to overcome that gap given where his campaign is currently. Having VP Harris likely improves Democrats’ odds of taking the White House.”

However, a majority of Americans view Harris negatively, similar to their perceptions of Biden and Trump. Polling data from Five Thirty Eight shows 37.1% of voters approve of Harris while 49.6% disapprove, compared to Biden’s 36.9% approval and 57.1% disapproval, and Trump’s 38.6% approval and 53.6% disapproval.

Since the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to repeal the constitutional right to abortion, Harris has become the administration’s leading voice on reproductive rights. This issue is central to the Democrats’ strategy for the 2024 election. Harris could invigorate key Democratic-leaning groups whose enthusiasm for Biden has waned, including Black voters, young voters, and those dissatisfied with Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Tim Ryan, a former Democratic Congressman from Ohio, wrote, “She would energize the Black, brown, and Asian Pacific members of our coalition…she would immediately pull the dispirited youth of our country back into the fold.”

Harris’s stance on Israel is aligned with Biden’s, though she was the first senior U.S. leader to call for a ceasefire in March. Abbas Alawieh of the “Uncommitted” movement, which withheld votes for Biden over his support for Israel, stated, “Simply swapping out the candidate does not address the central concern.”

If Biden steps aside, other Democrats might compete for the nomination. However, choosing another candidate over Harris could alienate Black voters, crucial to Biden’s 2020 victory. Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of BlackPAC, asserted, “There is no alternative besides Kamala Harris…Jump over the Black woman, the vice president, and I don’t think the Democratic Party actually recovers.”

Harris may struggle to win over moderate Democrats and independent voters who favor Biden’s centrist policies. Dmitri Mehlhorn, adviser to LinkedIn co-founder and Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman, noted, “Her greatest weakness is that her public brand has been associated with the far-left wing of the Democratic Party…and the left wing cannot win a national election.”

Harris would inherit Biden’s campaign infrastructure and funds, a crucial advantage with only four months until election day. However, Democratic strategists emphasize the need to raise hundreds of millions more dollars. A Democratic National Committee source remarked, “I can tell you we have a really tough time raising money for her.”

During the 2020 presidential race, Harris lagged behind Biden in fundraising, dropping out in December 2019 after reporting $39.3 million in total contributions compared to Biden’s $60.9 million. However, Biden’s campaign raised a record $48 million in 24 hours after naming Harris as his running mate.

Some Democrats believe Harris’s prosecutorial background could shine in a debate against Trump. Mehlhorn commented, “She is incredibly focused and forceful and smart, and if she prosecutes the case against the criminality of Donald Trump, she will rip him apart.”

Republican attacks on Harris are increasing as she is considered a possible replacement for Biden. Conservative media are reviving criticism from the 2020 race, including claims that she laughs too much and is untested and unqualified. The New York Post, owned by News Corp, ran a column titled “America may soon be subjected to the country’s first DEI president: Kamala Harris,” criticizing her rise due to the party’s diversity initiatives.

Kelly Dittmar, a political science professor at Rutgers University, said, “Unfortunately, the reliance on both racist and sexist attacks and tropes against women running for office is historically common and persists to this day.”

Biden’s Age and Stubbornness: Key Takeaways from His ABC Interview

Democrats have been deeply concerned about President Biden’s candidacy and his ability to defeat Donald Trump following his poor debate performance last week.

To address these concerns, Biden sat for an interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on Friday night.

Whether the interview alleviated these concerns will become clearer in the coming days. Here are six key takeaways from the interview:

  1. Biden’s Performance and Age

Biden’s performance in the interview was better than in the debate, but his age is increasingly apparent. While he may have reassured some political allies, he did not display the clarity and coherence that Democrats hoped for. His thoughts were occasionally scattered and unclear.

“I just had a bad night,” Biden explained regarding the debate. “I don’t know why.” He mentioned that he had been traveling, had a cold, and had even tested for COVID.

The critical question is whether Democratic officials and persuadable voters will accept this explanation and believe he is capable of another term. Biden asserts he is fit for the job, but his age is becoming more noticeable at a crucial time. Before the debate, expectations were low. Biden only needed to show some energy and vigor, but he failed to do so. Now, expectations are higher, and every public appearance, speech, and debate will be scrutinized.

  1. Biden’s Stubbornness

Biden reaffirmed that he is not withdrawing from the race, asserting that no one else could do the job as well or be a better candidate against Trump.

Biden dismissed questions about his political standing and doubts about his ability to lead or defeat Trump. “I’ve seen it from the press,” he said. “I don’t think the vast majority are there. I don’t believe that’s my approval rating.”

Understanding Biden’s refusal to step aside requires understanding his politics and personal resilience. He has faced numerous challenges both personally and politically, which have shaped him. Biden is accustomed to people doubting him, and he believes these naysayers have been wrong for a long time.

However, these challenges differ from his current one because, as the saying goes, Father Time is undefeated.

Historian Douglas Brinkley once said of former President George W. Bush, “Stubbornness is a positive quality of presidential leadership—if you’re right about what you’re stubborn about.” This sentiment applies to Biden or any president.

  1. The Role of Biden’s Closest Allies

Biden stated that only a divine intervention could force him out of the race — or possibly his closest allies in Democratic leadership.

“If the Lord Almighty came down and said, ‘Joe, get out of the race,’ I’d get out of the race,” Biden said. “The Lord Almighty’s not coming down.”

While divine intervention is unlikely, Biden seemed to leave open the possibility of exiting if key congressional allies, such as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Rep. Jim Clyburn, and Senate leader Chuck Schumer, advised him to do so.

None of these allies have called for him to drop out. However, Pelosi recently acknowledged that it is legitimate to question whether Biden’s debate performance was an “episode” or a “condition.”

Stephanopoulos asked Biden, “If you are told reliably from your allies, from your friends and supporters in the Democratic Party in the House and Senate, that they’re concerned you’re going to lose the House and the Senate if you stay in, what will you do?”

Biden responded, “I’m not going to answer that question. It’s not going to happen.”

Thus, Biden’s future in the race is not solely his decision.

  1. Questions About Vice President Harris

Biden contended, “I don’t think anybody’s more qualified to be president or win this race than me.”

He later questioned who else has the “reach” with allies and can handle foreign policy as well as he can, despite his diminished capacity compared to a few years ago.

Stephanopoulos did not follow up on whether Biden believes Vice President Harris could win or do the job as well. Biden’s remarks raise questions about his confidence in Harris. Despite Biden’s public displays of support for Harris, such as raising her arm at a Fourth of July event, the doubts about his age make it worth considering whether he implicitly lacks confidence in Harris’s ability to win or govern.

  1. Biden’s Resilience and Self-Belief

Biden’s steadfast belief in his capabilities stems from a lifetime of overcoming obstacles. He has faced significant personal and political challenges, and his resilience has been a defining characteristic. This tenacity is evident in his refusal to step aside despite concerns about his age and performance.

Throughout his career, Biden has been told he couldn’t or shouldn’t do something, and he has consistently proved the doubters wrong. This deep-seated belief in his own resilience and abilities is a core part of who he is as a politician and person.

  1. The Impact on the Democratic Party

Biden’s decision to remain in the race has significant implications for the Democratic Party. His performance and public appearances will be closely scrutinized, and any perceived weaknesses could impact the party’s prospects in the upcoming elections.

The concerns about Biden’s age and performance are not just about his candidacy but also about the broader implications for the Democratic Party. If Biden’s campaign falters, it could have ripple effects on down-ballot races, potentially affecting the party’s control of the House and Senate.

Biden’s interview with Stephanopoulos highlighted key aspects of his candidacy: his age and performance issues, his stubbornness and resilience, the role of his closest allies, and the implications for the Democratic Party. Whether this interview will quell concerns about his candidacy remains to be seen, but it underscores the critical challenges he faces as he seeks another term in office.

President Biden Faces Mounting Pressure Amid Health Concerns and Debate Fallout

President Joe Biden is facing a challenging struggle to affirm his strength and cognitive capacity for a second term, a personal and national ordeal that has become increasingly agonizing. His recent appearance on primetime television, where he candidly addressed questions about his health, felt like a breach of presidential dignity, exposing his vulnerability to the public eye. Despite his respected status among many Americans, witnessing Biden confront the harsh realities of aging so publicly evokes empathy.

Biden’s recent presidential debate performance, marked by moments of incoherence, has sparked significant concern and forced a national dialogue about his fitness for reelection. Although his interview following the debate showcased a more composed demeanor compared to the debate itself, it did little to dispel mounting doubts about his health and the stability of his Democratic support base. The growing pressure within his party suggests a potential crisis, with calls from Democratic leaders for Biden to step aside in favor of a younger candidate intensifying.

During his interview with ABC News, Biden aimed to refute criticisms stemming from his debate performance and solidify his position as the Democratic nominee for 2024. He presented a robust defense of his presidency and dismissed concerns about his health, asserting his readiness to continue his campaign despite calls for him to reconsider. Biden emphasized his longstanding commitment to resilience in the face of adversity, a stance that complicates the Democratic Party’s internal deliberations.

Despite Biden’s insistence that his health remains intact, questions persist about his ability to withstand the rigors of another term. His admission of feeling “terrible” before the debate, coupled with moments of uncertainty during the interview, only heightened anxieties about his physical and mental stamina. Concerns over his age and capacity to effectively serve as president have become focal points in discussions about his candidacy.

The interview highlighted Biden’s defensive posture against criticisms of his debate performance and polling trends indicating a decline in his national and swing state support. Democratic leaders, increasingly anxious about the implications for the upcoming election, have urged Biden to engage more directly with the public to demonstrate his vitality and capability to lead.

Amidst the debate over Biden’s candidacy, supporters argue that his accomplishments in office and the imperative to counter Trump’s potential reelection outweigh concerns about his age and performance. They contend that Biden’s experience and policy achievements should not be overshadowed by a single debate performance, emphasizing the stakes of the upcoming election and the broader implications for American democracy.

However, the persistent doubts about Biden’s ability to navigate another term in office have cast a shadow over discussions about his candidacy. Critics within the Democratic Party assert that while Biden has made significant contributions during his tenure, his continued candidacy risks jeopardizing the party’s prospects in November. They argue for a leadership transition that reflects the changing dynamics of American politics and addresses the challenges posed by Trump’s reelection campaign.

As Biden continues to confront skepticism about his candidacy, he remains steadfast in his determination to highlight his administration’s achievements and combat doubts about his capacity to lead. His efforts to redirect attention towards his policy agenda underscore his commitment to advancing his campaign despite the formidable challenges he faces.

In conclusion, Biden’s struggle to affirm his candidacy for a second term reflects broader anxieties within the Democratic Party about his ability to effectively compete against Trump. The debate over his health and fitness for office underscores the complexity of his reelection bid and the competing perspectives within his party regarding the path forward.

Keir Starmer Assumes UK Premiership Amidst Labour’s Landslide Victory: A Vision for Progressive Realism and Stronger Global Ties

Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party, has assumed the role of Britain’s Prime Minister, displacing Rishi Sunak following a decisive electoral defeat for the Conservatives. As Labour returns to power after an absence since 2010, the initial phase of Starmer’s premiership will be marked by intensive international engagements. These include anticipated meetings with US President Joe Biden and various European leaders.

According to David Lammy, the prospective foreign secretary, Labour aims to adopt a foreign policy of “progressive realism,” acknowledging the world’s volatility “as it is, not as we wish it to be.” This stance underscores Labour’s intention to navigate international affairs with pragmatism and foresight.

Labour’s agenda also prioritizes ensuring the success of Brexit and pursuing an ambitious security pact with the European Union. Starmer’s vision extends to enhancing UK-India relations, acknowledging historical challenges such as Labour’s past positions on issues like Kashmir. He has committed to forging a new strategic partnership with India, emphasizing initiatives such as a free trade agreement (FTA) and expanded cooperation in technology, security, education, and climate change. These efforts aim to elevate ties with one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.

In his manifesto, Starmer outlined plans for a “new strategic partnership” with India, focusing prominently on trade agreements and bilateral cooperation. To address domestic concerns and garner support from the British-Indian community, Starmer has engaged in outreach efforts during his campaign. These include condemning Hinduphobia and participating in cultural celebrations like Diwali and Holi, aimed at fostering inclusivity and trust within this crucial demographic for Labour’s electoral prospects.

However, challenges lie ahead in realizing Starmer’s ambitious foreign policy objectives, particularly concerning immigration policies and trade negotiations. Amidst bipartisan consensus on the need to curb immigration, Labour faces delicate negotiations regarding temporary visas for Indian workers in the UK service sector.

Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party attempted a last-minute appeal to voters, warning of potential tax increases under Labour’s leadership. Despite these efforts, Labour has secured a commanding lead with 403 seats, compared to the Conservatives’ 109 seats in the 650-member House of Commons. Winning 326 seats is required for a parliamentary majority.

U.S. Housing Market Crisis Looms Large as Economic Drag Ahead of 2024 Election

To paraphrase the article while including the original quotes and maintaining the content integrity within approximately 1000 words:

The U.S. housing market, grappling with elevated interest rates and sluggish sales, is poised to exert significant drag on the economy leading up to the upcoming election.

Recent reports paint a grim picture of a housing sector that once held promise as a substantial contributor to the economy, constituting up to 18 percent of it. Existing home sales have declined, and pending sales have plummeted to unprecedented lows. May’s housing starts have hit their lowest point since June 2020, coinciding with the pandemic-induced economic slowdown. Amid the highest borrowing costs seen in over two decades, residential investment has sharply decreased.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, highlighted the severity of the situation, noting, “Home sales activity is at a 30-year low — it’s essentially stuck at that level, so all of the economic activity associated with home sales is at a depressed level.”

Initially optimistic at the start of the year, market expectations were for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates as inflation subsided. However, this expectation has not materialized, keeping the Fed’s rates elevated and thereby increasing the costs of construction and financing for home purchases.

Simultaneously, soaring home prices due to a nationwide supply shortage have barred many prospective first-time buyers from entering the market. Surveys indicate that the escalating housing costs rank among the top concerns for young voters, with over 90 percent identifying affordability as a pivotal factor influencing their voting decisions this year. This issue is not confined to the U.S. alone; other affluent democracies such as the U.K., France, and Canada are also contending with housing affordability as a pressing political issue.

The Biden administration has faced challenges in addressing this crisis, with significant barriers to new housing development predominantly arising at the local and state levels.

Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, emphasized the unprecedented nature of the current housing dilemma, stating, “It’s unprecedented, it’s never been such an issue. I think this is the first time housing could actually matter in the swing states — before it was mostly in the coastal areas.” Fairweather underscored President Biden’s acknowledgment of housing costs in his debate with former President Trump, highlighting its newfound prominence in national discourse.

Residential investment, which accounts for a substantial portion of the GDP, could diminish by up to 5 percent as a result of declining spending in this sector, further exacerbating economic slowdown amidst already tepid consumer spending.

Although housing inventory is showing slight signs of increase, it remains insufficient to meet demand, exacerbated by a prolonged supply shortage dating back several years. This shortage is compounded by homeowners opting to retain their 3 percent mortgages secured in 2020 rather than refinancing at current rates nearing 6.9 percent, creating what Fairweather termed as a “mortgage rate lock-in effect.”

Fairweather cautioned against expecting a quick resolution to the housing market’s challenges, suggesting, “I don’t think that the problems with the housing market are going to clear up in a matter of years. It could take a decade.”

Acknowledging that many of the barriers driving up housing costs are localized, the White House announced initiatives in June. The Department of Housing and Urban Development plans to allocate $85 million in grants to help local governments identify and eliminate obstacles to affordable housing production and preservation. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a $100 million allocation over three years to support affordable housing production through the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund.

These measures represent the latest attempts by the Biden administration to tackle the affordability crisis exacerbated by housing shortages following years of below-average construction rates in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. As of April, home prices in the 20 largest U.S. metro areas reached record highs according to the Case-Shiller home price index, contributing to increased official inflation indexes and raising concerns among voters already grappling with the highest inflation rates in four decades.

Despite the record highs in home prices, there are signs that the pace of price growth is moderating, suggesting a more stable market compared to the unsustainable growth observed in 2022, according to Zillow senior economist Orphe Divounguy. Divounguy noted, “Today I think we’re in a much better place than we were in 2022, when prices were growing unsustainably. That overheated pace could result in a crash, which is why the Fed had to act when it did.”

Looking forward, Divounguy predicted that mortgage rates would remain elevated for some time, attributing part of the problem to the role of high interest rates in driving up housing costs, as highlighted by Robert Dietz, chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders. Dietz remarked, “You’ve got a market that’s got a lot of potential for growth that is continuing to lag due to higher-for-longer interest rates.”

Dietz emphasized the importance of addressing the housing supply issue, predicting that housing would be a critical issue in the upcoming 2024 election. He stated, “If pollsters and candidates are out there talking to people, they’ll hear pretty quickly that increasing the attainable housing supply is a must-do.” However, he cautioned against expecting a simple, scalable solution, acknowledging, “There’s kind of a lot of challenges that have to be addressed in the housing market.”

The U.S. housing market’s current challenges, compounded by elevated interest rates and persistent supply shortages, threaten to weigh heavily on the economy ahead of the election. Despite recent efforts by the Biden administration to address affordability through targeted initiatives, the complex nature of local barriers and entrenched economic factors suggest that resolving these issues will require sustained effort and innovative solutions.

Chief Medical Correspondent Urges Biden to Undergo Cognitive Testing Amid Health Concerns

CNN’s chief medical correspondent, Dr. Sanjay Gupta, has called for President Joe Biden to undergo comprehensive cognitive and movement disorder testing and make the results public. Gupta, a prominent neurosurgeon, wrote in a Friday article that he and several colleagues noticed worrisome signs during Biden’s debate with former President Donald Trump that warrant closer examination of Biden’s health. The symptoms Gupta observed include Biden’s halting speech, quiet voice, slack-jawed appearance, and occasional inability to finish sentences on the debate stage.

“Are we looking at episodes of something? Or is this a condition that should be more fully investigated? And it really seems to be more of the latter,” Gupta remarked on CNN.

Gupta emphasized that the current disclosures about Biden’s health are inadequate for a remote diagnosis. However, following Biden’s concerning debate performance, Gupta and other neurologists agreed that the president needs a detailed evaluation of his cognitive functions, memory, and other potential risk factors.

“In 2020, Biden claimed he was ‘constantly tested’ by the demands of campaigning. ‘All you’ve got to do is watch me,’ he said then,” Gupta pointed out. “The country is watching now, and that assessment gives cause for concern — and a need for transparent testing.”

The doctors’ call for testing comes amid growing doubts about Biden’s ability to run for president, defeat Trump in November, and serve until he is 86. These concerns were heightened by Biden’s recent performance, where he had a raspy voice and gave several incomplete responses. Gupta’s analysis is part of an ongoing media focus on Biden’s age and the transparency of the White House regarding his health.

“It wasn’t that what we noticed was necessarily new but that it was particularly pronounced, and right from the start of the debate,” Gupta wrote, acknowledging that Trump has also previously rambled and confused names or events.

Gupta suggested that factors like low sleep, low blood sugar, or illness could have contributed to Biden’s debate appearance, but testing is necessary to determine the exact cause of the “symptoms displayed” by Biden. He noted that identifying any “possibility of underlying dementia” would ultimately benefit Biden, as early diagnosis and treatment have improved in recent years.

Biden has not been diagnosed with a cognitive disorder. In his annual physical in February, his doctor reported that Biden underwent an “extremely detailed” neurologic exam, which found no symptoms of Parkinson’s and described him as fit for his duties. The exam indicated Biden was being treated for several age-related ailments and had a stiffer gait.

This week, Biden informed a meeting of Democratic governors that he had a medical check-up for a cold after the debate. However, previous health reports have not mentioned any cognitive tests. To reassure voters about his health, Biden is making several public appearances this weekend, including a highly anticipated interview with ABC News scheduled to air on Friday.

The issue of Biden’s health has become a focal point as the election approaches. Gupta’s concerns reflect a broader debate about the transparency of presidential candidates’ health information. Gupta’s commentary underscores the need for detailed cognitive testing to address public concerns about Biden’s fitness for office.

By making his health records more transparent, Biden could potentially alleviate some of the public’s worries. Gupta and his colleagues believe that a thorough examination and sharing the results would provide clarity on Biden’s health status. This approach would help in dispelling doubts and reinforcing the public’s trust in the president’s ability to serve effectively.

The scrutiny of Biden’s health is not new but has intensified with the upcoming election. The media and public are closely watching Biden’s appearances and statements, looking for any signs of health issues. The debate performance brought these concerns to the forefront, prompting medical experts like Gupta to call for more transparency and detailed health assessments.

Gupta’s call for cognitive and movement disorder testing for President Biden reflects the ongoing concerns about the president’s health and the need for transparency. As the election draws nearer, the public and media will continue to scrutinize Biden’s health, making it crucial for the president to address these concerns openly.

U.S. Economy Adds 206,000 Jobs in June, Showing Resilience Amid High Interest Rates

In June, American employers demonstrated the U.S. economy’s robust nature by adding 206,000 jobs, indicating its resilience against persistently high interest rates. While this number shows a slight decrease from May’s 218,000, it still represents solid job growth, underscoring the steady, consumer-driven nature of the American economy despite a gradual slowdown.

The Labor Department’s report released on Friday also revealed a slight uptick in the unemployment rate from 4% to 4.1%. Additionally, the department significantly revised its earlier estimates of job growth for April and May, reducing them by a total of 111,000 jobs.

The economic landscape is becoming a critical issue for voters as the presidential campaign heats up. Despite consistent hiring, low layoffs, and slowly cooling inflation, many Americans remain frustrated by the high cost of living and hold President Joe Biden responsible for these economic pressures.

Economists have repeatedly anticipated a slowdown in the job market due to the Federal Reserve’s high interest rates. Nevertheless, hiring has continued to surpass expectations. There are, however, indications of a broader economic deceleration in response to the Fed’s rate hikes. The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the total output of goods and services, grew at a sluggish annual rate of 1.4% from January to March, marking the slowest quarterly growth in nearly two years.

Democrats Rally Around Kamala Harris as Biden’s Campaign Falters: Discussions of Potential Running Mate Intensify

In the wake of Joe Biden’s debate performance, many Democratic insiders are now discussing who Kamala Harris might choose as her running mate. A growing number of party officials, operatives, and donors are doubtful that Biden’s campaign can recover, based on CNN’s interviews with two dozen Democratic politicians and operatives.

Biden often says to compare him to the alternative, not the almighty, which is what more Democrats are doing with Harris. Harris and her team have largely ignored the influx of calls and texts, maintaining a firm stance on their support for Biden. However, Harris did make some adjustments, like joining Biden for the Fourth of July picnic and fireworks, a first for her.

Despite her support, the Democratic landscape is shifting around Harris, with former President Donald Trump’s campaign already targeting her. Officials have begun advising donors to back Harris, arguing that a unified party support is essential. Some plans are in motion to convince Biden to endorse Harris immediately, release his Democratic delegates, and request their support for her. This strategy aims to prevent a contentious primary fight.

If the race opens, Democrats hope Harris’ running mate will be a prominent governor. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear are frequently mentioned, along with Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker, and Minnesota’s Tim Walz. However, this could complicate matters by not allowing Harris to select her own running mate, a privilege typically given to presidential nominees.

A Democratic senator compared the situation to a football game, with Biden as a star quarterback who might need to be replaced by his backup, Harris. “The backup knows our team, the backup knows the plays, the backup has played in the NFL,” the senator said, highlighting Harris’ familiarity with the political landscape.

Some Democrats fear losing their seats with Harris at the top of the ticket, but others have changed their views, preferring her over Biden. The leader of one major Democratic group said, “Are you kidding?” when asked about preferring Harris, emphasizing that while Biden is in bad shape, Harris could unify the party if she becomes the nominee.

A document titled “Unburdened by What Has Been: The Case for Kamala,” written by senior Democratic operatives, is circulating among donors and coalition groups. It argues that Harris is the only viable candidate to win, stating, “Kamala Harris has the strongest claim to Democratic legitimacy. She is the only candidate who can take the reins right now… She has significant and widely underplayed electoral advantages. She can win.”

Rep. Nanette Barragán, who supported Harris in 2019, noted the shift in conversations about Harris. “It’s nice to see that people are finally recognizing the value of her work and what she brings to the partnership,” she said.

Biden’s sparse public schedule post-debate has increased doubts about him and bolstered Harris’ case. Mini Timmaraju, president of Reproductive Freedom for All, said Harris already has more credibility than Biden on key issues like abortion rights, and emphasized, “You can’t win this election without Kamala.”

Harris loyalists are frustrated by discussions of Biden replacements not centering on her and angered by donors questioning her chances. Recent polls showing a tight race between her and Trump have only heightened their frustrations. Ezra Levin, co-founder of Indivisible, emphasized the need for voters to have confidence in Harris, stating, “It’s foolish and counterproductive to defend Biden by tearing down Harris.”

The Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) has mostly supported Biden, but members indicate they would quickly back Harris if Biden steps aside. Rep. Gregory Meeks said, “I actually don’t think that anybody else other than her would beat Trump because of what you’d lose in the base,” stressing the importance of Black voter turnout.

Harris has contemplated a Trump challenge before. In 2018, her aides asked how she’d handle a town hall debate with Trump. Her response: “Why are you being so weird?” This showcases her readiness to confront Trump head-on.

Despite her reputation for verbal gaffes, Harris has been on an upswing with voters. After Biden’s debate, she spontaneously told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that a bad 90 minutes shouldn’t overshadow Biden’s three and a half years as president. This line was so effective that it was repeated by Jill Biden and multiple campaign aides.

Harris has focused on Trump for months, planning to target his running mate by highlighting their alignment with Trump’s extremist agenda. Brian Fallon, Harris’ campaign communications director, reaffirmed, “The president is and will remain our party’s nominee, and Vice President Harris is proud to be his running mate and looks forward to serving at his side for four more years.”

The running mate conversation often includes Cooper and Beshear, both former state attorneys general with bipartisan support. Cooper has a long-standing relationship with Harris, calling her “whip smart” and stating, “I think she’s ready to do this job.” Beshear, popular in Kentucky and nationally recognized for his communication skills, has also been invited to speak at Democratic events across the country.

The Democratic party is grappling with Biden’s faltering campaign and looking to Harris as a potential successor. While the transition is fraught with challenges and uncertainties, many believe that Harris, with the right support, can lead the party to victory.

Kamala Harris Emerges as Top Contender if Biden Steps Down: Senior Democratic Sources Reveal

Vice President Kamala Harris stands as the leading alternative to replace President Joe Biden if he opts out of his reelection campaign, as per insights from seven senior sources associated with the Biden campaign, the White House, and the Democratic National Committee. These sources reveal ongoing discussions about potential replacements.

Biden’s recent faltering and often incoherent debate performance against Republican Donald Trump has sparked widespread panic within the Democratic party. Concerns about his fitness for a second term have led to calls for the resignation of top aides.

While some influential Democrats have proposed other alternatives to Biden, such as popular cabinet members and Democratic governors like California’s Gavin Newsom, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, and Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, the sources believe bypassing Harris would be nearly impossible. They suggest that Harris, with the highest name recognition and polling among potential candidates, would naturally inherit the Biden campaign’s funds and infrastructure if nominated.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates Harris is trailing Trump by just one percentage point (42% to 43%), which falls within the poll’s margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, demonstrating a performance on par with Biden’s. Furthermore, Harris has been thoroughly vetted for national office and has withstood intense scrutiny from Republicans. Notably, U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn, a key figure in Biden’s 2020 victory, expressed his support for Harris as the Democratic nominee if Biden steps aside.

Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist from California who worked on Hillary Clinton’s campaigns in 2008 and 2016, stated, “It’s pretty near impossible to win the nomination over the vice president.” He emphasizes Harris’s entrenched position within the party.

On July 2, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre dismissed concerns, attributing Biden’s debate performance to a “bad night” and reaffirming his commitment to running for reelection. The Biden campaign referred questions about the scenario to Harris’s team, which firmly stated, “Vice President Harris looks forward to serving a second term with President Joe Biden.”

Biden’s campaign has secured 3,894 delegates from state primaries, with only a few dozen “uncommitted” delegates left. These delegates are expected to formally nominate Biden later this month during a virtual meeting before the Democratic National Convention in August. Trujillo reiterated Harris’s substantial support within the party, saying, “All of the delegates are not just Joe Biden delegates, they are Kamala Harris delegates,” and she would have significant backing from all states.

Donna Brazile, former interim chair of the Democratic National Committee and a key figure in the upcoming Democratic National Convention, stated that Harris is the immediate successor if Biden steps down. Brazile emphasized the structured process, noting, “People may have dreams of another superhero but there is a process and the last time I checked it’s a Biden-Harris ticket, she’s number two on the ticket,” while reaffirming Biden’s status as the Democratic nominee.

Overlooking Harris, the first Black and female vice president, could trigger backlash from Black and female voters, who are crucial for any Democratic victory, according to several Democratic strategists.

However, some influential Democrats remain skeptical of Harris’s chances against Trump. Four sources mentioned that Harris has been largely sidelined in post-debate speculations due to doubts about her electability. The U.S. has never elected a female president, and Harris’s role as vice president has limited her ability to distinguish herself. As recently as last year, concerns within the White House and the Biden campaign labeled her a potential liability.

Despite finding her footing on abortion rights, Harris’s approval ratings have not significantly improved, lingering below 40%. Polls indicate that she and Biden have comparable odds of defeating Trump. Harris has also faced continuous attacks from Republicans and conservative media, often viewed by her allies as sexist and racist.

Three Democratic donors, who previously advocated for Biden’s withdrawal, conceded this week that bypassing Harris is “impossible.” These donors had been considering Whitmer and Newsom as potential alternatives until recently. One donor remarked, “There is a real conversation in the Democratic party about leadership right now, but fair to say, and I’m not thrilled about this… it will be impossible to ignore Kamala.”

Another donor added, “She’s nobody’s choice, but yeah, nearly impossible.”

Despite growing calls for Biden to step aside, his reelection campaign remains firm, buoyed by his improved performance in a scripted speech in North Carolina. Stephanie Cutter, former deputy campaign manager for Barack Obama and current producer of the Democratic National Convention, stated unequivocally, “President Biden is the nominee and he’s going to remain the nominee.” She warned against fostering intra-party conflict, cautioning, “For those who are looking for some sort of interparty fight, be careful what you wish for because that would ensure a Trump victory.”

House Democrat Lloyd Doggett and Others Urge Biden to Step Down as Democratic Presidential Nominee

Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) made headlines as the first House Democrat to publicly urge President Joe Biden to step down as the Democratic presidential nominee, highlighting the growing concern within the party over Biden’s debate performance. Doggett’s call reflects the internal party anxiety now spilling into the public sphere.

“President Biden has continued to run substantially behind Democratic senators in key states and in most polls has trailed Donald Trump,” Doggett stated. “I had hoped that the debate would provide some momentum to change that. It did not. Instead of reassuring voters, the President failed to effectively defend his many accomplishments and expose Trump’s many lies.”

Doggett emphasized his belief in Biden’s commitment to the country, contrasting it with Trump’s self-serving nature. “Recognizing that, unlike Trump, President Biden’s first commitment has always been to our country, not himself, I am hopeful that he will make the painful and difficult decision to withdraw. I respectfully call on him to do so,” he added.

Adam Frisch, a Democratic candidate running in Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Colo.) 3rd Congressional District in Colorado, echoed Doggett’s sentiments shortly after. Frisch, who narrowly lost to Boebert in 2022, called for Biden to exit the race as well.

“We deserve better. President Biden should do what’s best for the country and withdraw from the race,” Frisch said. “I thank President Biden for his years of service, but the path ahead requires a new generation of leadership to take our country forward.”

Former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) also weighed in earlier that day, publishing an opinion piece advocating for Vice President Kamala Harris to be positioned as the Democratic presidential nominee.

While these views do not represent the majority of the party—at least not publicly—there is a noticeable shift in tone among some Democrats, diverging from the unified front presented by Democratic leadership and Biden’s campaign team.

“It’s a familiar story: Following Thursday night’s debate, the beltway class is counting Joe Biden out. The data in the battleground states, though, tells a different story,” Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley stated in a Saturday memo.

“On every metric that matters, data shows it did nothing to change the American people’s perception. Our supporters are more fired up than ever, and Donald Trump only reminded voters of why they fired him four years ago and failed to expand his appeal beyond his MAGA base,” she added.

Public polls conducted after the debate have done little to alleviate Democratic concerns about Biden’s performance affecting his chances in battleground and traditionally blue-leaning states. A Saint Anselm College poll released on Monday showed Trump narrowly leading Biden 44 percent to 42 percent in New Hampshire, within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percent.

Meanwhile, a USA Today/Suffolk University poll released on Tuesday indicated Trump at 41 percent and Biden at 38 percent, also within the survey’s 3.1 percentage point margin of error.

AtlasIntel Poll: Biden Trails Trump in 2024 Race, Faces Calls to Withdraw Amid Debate Fallout

In the latest findings by AtlasIntel, a leading polling group renowned for its accuracy, President Joe Biden is reported to be trailing Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race, particularly among younger voters by a significant margin. According to the survey of 1,634 likely voters conducted between June 26 and 28, Trump holds a five-point lead over Biden with 45.5 percent compared to Biden’s 40.3 percent, just over four months ahead of their anticipated rematch in November.

Among voters aged 18-29, Trump emerges as the clear favorite with 41.6 percent support, contrasting sharply with Biden’s 27 percent. This demographic shift is noteworthy given that younger voters traditionally lean towards Democratic candidates in elections. Conversely, Biden maintains leads in other key age groups, securing 47.7 percent support among those aged 45-64 and 52.1 percent among those aged 65 and above, compared to Trump’s 45.1 percent and 41.6 percent respectively in those age brackets.

The poll’s timing, conducted shortly after Thursday night’s first live televised presidential debate of the 2024 campaign, likely influenced participant perspectives. During the debate, concerns about Biden’s age and performance were exacerbated as he delivered responses described as incoherent and occasionally failed to complete sentences. This has fueled discussions about whether Biden should continue his reelection bid, with 48.2 percent of respondents suggesting he should withdraw, while 44.2 percent oppose such a move. Notably, a significant majority (54.6 percent) of younger voters aged 18-29 believe Biden should not seek another term in office.

Despite these sentiments, a substantial 72.4 percent of voters across all demographics expressed skepticism that Biden would actually withdraw from the race at this stage, underscoring the resilience of his campaign despite challenges regarding age and approval ratings. Biden’s campaign spokesperson, Lauren Hitt, affirmed after the debate that the President remains steadfast in his commitment to the election, dismissing speculations about an early exit.

In contrast to Biden’s perceived vulnerabilities, Trump’s reelection bid faces scrutiny surrounding his actions related to the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. Nearly half of the poll respondents (48.9 percent) believe Trump should be disqualified from running due to his involvement in those events, while 47.2 percent disagree. Trump has maintained his innocence against federal charges connected to the Capitol riot and awaits a pivotal Supreme Court decision regarding potential presidential immunity.

The AtlasIntel poll, known for its meticulous methodology, carries a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, ensuring a reliable snapshot of voter sentiments leading into the final stretch of the 2024 presidential campaign.

Supreme Court Ruling Delays Trump’s Election Interference Trial Until After 2024 Election

The Supreme Court’s decision on Monday in former President Donald Trump’s 2020 election interference case significantly decreases the likelihood of him facing trial in Washington before the November election. The court did not dismiss the indictment, as Trump had requested, which alleges that he illegally attempted to retain power after losing to President Joe Biden. Nonetheless, the ruling is a considerable win for Trump, the leading Republican presidential candidate, who has been aiming to delay legal proceedings until after the election.

The timing of the trial is crucial because if Trump wins the election, he could appoint an attorney general who might seek to dismiss this case and other federal prosecutions against him. Alternatively, Trump could potentially pardon himself. Trump celebrated the ruling on his social media platform, declaring, “BIG WIN FOR OUR CONSTITUTION AND DEMOCRACY. PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN!”

In contrast, President Biden criticized the court’s decision, calling it a “terrible disservice” to the American people, who he believes deserve to know the case’s outcome before voting. Biden stated, “The American people will have to render a judgment about Donald Trump’s behavior. The American people must decide whether Trump’s assault on our democracy on Jan. 6 makes him unfit for public office.”

The Opinion

The court’s conservative majority ruled that former presidents have absolute immunity from prosecution for official acts within their “exclusive sphere of constitutional authority” and are generally immune for all official acts. They do not have immunity for private actions. This ruling restricts special counsel Jack Smith from proceeding with major allegations in the indictment or requires him to defend their use in future proceedings before the trial judge.

For example, the justices nullified Smith’s use of allegations that Trump tried to leverage the Justice Department’s investigative power to reverse the election results, ruling that Trump’s communications with agency officials are clearly protected from prosecution. The case now returns to U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan, who must “carefully analyze” whether other allegations involve official conduct for which Trump would be immune.

One key issue for further examination is Trump’s persistent pressure on then-Vice President Mike Pence not to certify the electoral votes on January 6, 2021. The justices stated it is “ultimately the Government’s burden to rebut the presumption of immunity” in Trump’s interactions with Pence. Additionally, the court ordered further scrutiny of Trump’s posts on X (formerly Twitter) and a speech he delivered to supporters before the Capitol riot, to determine whether they constitute official or unofficial acts.

The Fake Electors Scheme

The justices called for new fact-finding on one of the indictment’s most startling allegations—that Trump participated in a scheme by allies to enlist slates of fraudulent electors in battleground states won by Biden, falsely claiming Trump had won those states. Trump’s team argued that selecting alternate electors was consistent with his presidential interest in election integrity, citing a precedent from the disputed 1876 election. However, Smith’s team portrayed the scheme as a purely private action unrelated to presidential duties.

The conservative majority did not resolve which side was correct, noting that determining the proper characterization of the conduct requires a detailed analysis of the indictment’s extensive and interrelated allegations. They stated, “This alleged conduct cannot be neatly categorized as falling within a particular Presidential function,” requiring a fact-specific assessment of numerous interactions with state officials and private individuals.

The Dissenters

The three liberal justices—Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson—sharply criticized the majority opinion. Sotomayor, in a dramatic bench dissent, argued that the conservative majority wrongly insulated the U.S. president as “a king above the law.” She stated, “Ironic isn’t it? The man in charge of enforcing laws can now just break them.”

The dissenters warned that the majority decision makes presidents immune from prosecution for actions such as ordering Navy SEALs to assassinate a political rival, organizing a military coup, or accepting bribes for pardons. Sotomayor wrote, “Even if these nightmare scenarios never play out, and I pray they never do, the damage has been done. The relationship between the President and the people he serves has shifted irrevocably. In every use of official power, the President is now a king above the law.”

In a separate dissent, Jackson stated that the majority’s ruling “breaks new and dangerous ground,” declaring, “The Court has now declared for the first time in history that the most powerful official in the United States can (under circumstances yet to be fully determined) become a law unto himself.” The majority accused the liberal justices of “fear mongering” and maintaining a “tone of chilling doom that is wholly disproportionate to what the court actually does today.”

What Comes Next

The case will now return to Judge Chutkan. The trial was initially set to begin in March but has been on hold since December to allow Trump to pursue his appeal. Chutkan had previously indicated she would give the two sides at least three months to prepare for trial once the case returned to her court. This could have allowed the trial to commence before the election if the Supreme Court had ruled Trump was not immune from prosecution.

However, the Supreme Court’s directive for further analysis is expected to prolong the case with legal debates over whether the actions in the indictment were official or unofficial.

Trump’s Other Cases

Trump was convicted in May of 34 felony counts in his hush money trial in New York and is scheduled for sentencing on July 11. The charges of falsifying business records carry a maximum penalty of four years in prison, though prison time is not guaranteed, with other potential outcomes including fines or probation.

Trump’s other criminal cases are also unlikely to go to trial before the election. An appeals court recently halted his Georgia 2020 election interference case while reviewing a lower court’s ruling allowing Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis to stay on the case. No trial date had been set, and Trump’s lawyers have claimed presidential immunity, though no ruling has been made.

In the case regarding classified documents found at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon canceled the May trial date due to legal issues. A new trial date has not been set, and Trump’s team has claimed immunity, a stance prosecutors dispute. Cannon recently agreed to revisit a ruling by another judge allowing crucial obstruction of justice evidence to be introduced, causing further delays.

Justice Clarence Thomas’s separate concurrence suggested that Smith’s appointment was improper, but no other justice supported this view, indicating minimal impact on the Supreme Court’s stance.

Democrats Evaluate Potential Successors Amid Speculation Over Biden’s Future in 2024 Race

President Biden’s campaign is actively working to dispel rumors suggesting he might withdraw from the 2024 race after his underwhelming performance in last week’s debate.

“Most top Democrats have voiced support for Biden continuing in the race,” while “members of his family, including first lady Jill Biden, have declared they also want him to remain a candidate,” which calls into question the possibility of replacing Biden.

“If Biden were to step aside, several prominent Democrats could be waiting in the wings as possible successors,” including Vice President Kamala Harris.

“If Biden were to decide against seeking reelection, Vice President Harris would be the most obvious choice to replace him,” Harris has recently defended Biden’s ability to serve another term, which most other top Democrats who could be considered have also done.

“Serving in the country’s second-highest office has given her some amount of executive governing experience, and Biden choosing her as his running mate already made her one of the top possible candidates for the 2028 nomination.”

“With the presidential primaries concluded, Harris is also the only possible contender who could claim some past electoral mandate for the nomination, with the country having indirectly elected her as first-in-line to the presidency four years ago and Democratic voters backing Biden this year with the knowledge that she is the running mate.”

“But Harris has some vulnerabilities,” her favorability rating has often been even lower than Biden’s, though she has improved somewhat in the past couple of months and has a higher net approval rating than Biden, according to FiveThirtyEight.

“She also could be dogged with criticisms of the Biden administration’s policies like immigration, on which she was spearheading an initiative.”

“Still, Democrats could take a hit by passing over the first female Black vice president as its nominee when having the chance because Black voters will be a key constituency,” a poll last month showed Harris would perform better with Black voters than Biden.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is another prominent Democrat who could step into the spotlight if Harris is passed over.

“If Harris were to be passed over, the California Gov. Gavin Newsom would almost certainly be at or near the top of many Democratic delegates’ list to be the nominee.”

Newsom has gained prominence in recent years, partly due to his defense of Biden and his clashes with prominent Republicans, notably Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).

“Despite ongoing speculation of Newsom having presidential ambitions, he has repeatedly denied interest in running for president in 2024,” following Biden’s debate. He appeared in the spin room to argue against ditching Biden just because of one performance and called talk of Biden being replaced “unhelpful and unnecessary” in a fundraising pitch for the president on Friday.

“But if Biden were to step aside, Newsom would very likely receive significant calls to throw his hat in the ring.”

“He would be able to run on a record as a two-term governor of one of the largest economies in the world and tout many accomplishments during his tenure for the left in the solidly blue state. He also has overcome an attempt to recall him and is seen as a top possibility to run in 2028.”

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, known for her slogan “Fix the Damn Roads,” has also emerged as a rising star in the Democratic Party.

“Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer first came to office in 2018, boosted by the slogan ‘Fix the Damn Roads,’ which put a pragmatic focus on repairing the state’s infrastructure. Since then, she has become a rising liberal star in the Democratic Party.”

“Her easy reelection victory in 2022 brought with it Democratic majorities in the state House and Senate, marking the first time in decades that Democrats had a trifecta of power in Michigan. She was also reelected alongside the passage of a ballot measure enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution, an initiative she championed.”

“Whitmer has been able to notch key victories, including the repeal of the state’s decades-old abortion ban and a ‘right-to-work’ law to prop up unions.”

“Still, Whitmer has been among the clearest of the rumored choices that she is not angling to replace Biden and is fully behind him.”

“Politico reported the Whitmer called Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon on Friday to make clear she was not responsible for her name being floated as a possible replacement and is willing to help Biden with the campaign. She appeared in an ad supporting the Biden-Harris ticket that she posted Sunday on her account on the social platform X.”

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, known as “Mayor Pete,” has also been discussed as a potential successor.

“Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was relatively unknown when he first began his run for president in 2020 but gained traction and popularity as ‘Mayor Pete,’ having served as the mayor of South Bend, Ind.”

“Buttigieg became a close advocate for Biden throughout 2020, culminating in his selection as Transportation secretary, making him the first openly gay Cabinet secretary. His success has raised speculation that he may try for another presidential run down the line.”

“In particular, he had a high-profile moment in 2021 as Congress passed and Biden signed the bipartisan infrastructure law into effect.”

“Buttigieg’s youth would also be a sharp contrast to Biden despite having less experience than some other rumored possibilities. But he struggled in 2020 with rallying minority, and especially Black support, and could face controversy over the administration’s handling of the East Palestine, Ohio, train derailment.”

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, known for his moderate stance within the Democratic Party, has also been mentioned as a potential candidate.

“Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro gradually rose to higher office in his home state before being elected state attorney general and eventually governor in 2022. He has developed a reputation over his career as a more moderate Democrat but was elected after running on key liberal issues, like protecting abortion rights and raising the minimum wage.”

“His ability to comfortably win the governorship in the battleground by almost 15 points, as well as his youthful energy, has sparked rumors he could be a future face of the party, possibly running for the Oval Office in four years.”

“But he would also likely get some attention this year if Biden were to end his presidential bid. He has been one of Biden’s top surrogates and called on his fellow Democrats to put in the work necessary to get Biden elected, saying ‘hand-wringing’ and ‘fretting’ are not the answer.”

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who will host the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, has also been highlighted.

“As the governor of Illinois, JB Pritzker is already set to receive some attention next month as the host governor of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. This, along with his rising national profile, could yield some support for his name to be placed in contention for the nomination.”

“Pritzker is in his second term as the head of the strongly Democratic-leaning state and has been an ardent defender of Biden throughout the 2024 campaign. Also one of Biden’s top surrogates, he defended the incumbent following special counsel Robert Hur’s report on Biden’s handling of classified documents and pushed back against Democrats planning to vote for anyone other than Biden in November.”

“Andy Beshear, the Democratic governor of Kentucky, has also been noted for his impressive reelection victory in a traditionally Republican state.”

“Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) pulled off an impressive reelection victory in his ruby-red state last year, improving his margin by a few points over his first election in 2019.”

“That thrust his name into the national conversation as someone who may have a future in the party, even though he will be term-limited in the next election. The governor is widely popular, only in his mid-40s and managed to win statewide as a Democrat twice in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since the 1990s.”

“Beshear addressed the possibility of Biden being replaced Monday, telling reporters he will support Biden as long as the president remains the Democratic nominee.”

“‘The debate performance was rough. It was a very bad night for the president, but he is still the candidate. Only he can make decisions about his future candidacy. So as long as he continues to be in the race, I support him,’ he said.”

“When pressed on whether he could replace Biden, Beshear said talk of serving is ‘flattering’ but is a ‘reflection of all the good things going on in Kentucky.’”

Supreme Court Grants Broad Immunity to Former Presidents, Delaying Trump’s Washington Trial

The Supreme Court made a landmark decision on Monday, establishing that former presidents enjoy extensive immunity from prosecution. This ruling significantly delays the criminal case against Donald Trump in Washington, where he faces charges related to alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. It also diminishes the likelihood of a trial before the upcoming November election.

In a historic 6-3 verdict, the court’s conservative majority, which includes three justices appointed by Trump, narrowed the scope of the case and remanded it to the trial court for further evaluation of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s indictment.

Trump celebrated what he termed a “BIG WIN,” while President Biden expressed concern over the precedent set by the justices, stating it “undermines the rule of this nation.”

Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, asserted a robust interpretation of presidential authority, arguing that a former president enjoys absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions within their constitutional authority. However, Roberts clarified that there is no immunity for unofficial acts, affirming that no individual, including a president, is above the law.

In dissent, Justice Sonia Sotomayor criticized the majority’s stance, asserting that the ruling elevates the president above legal accountability, likening it to granting the president kingly powers.

The decision by the justices underscores their pivotal role in the upcoming presidential election. Previously, they rejected attempts to prevent Trump from appearing on the ballot due to his actions post-2020 election. Additionally, the court recently curtailed an obstruction charge against Trump, a charge that has been applied to many of his supporters involved in the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot, showcasing the judiciary’s alignment with the nation’s political divisions.

The court’s ruling specifically addressed Trump’s immunity regarding alleged discussions with the Justice Department and his efforts to influence Vice President Mike Pence’s certification of Joe Biden’s electoral victory. It directed further examination of accusations that Trump conspired to manipulate electoral results in key states won by Biden.

Roberts’ opinion restricted prosecutors from using official acts as evidence in cases involving a president’s unofficial conduct. This limitation is seen as pivotal in cases where Trump’s alleged actions, such as attempts to influence electoral processes, are scrutinized.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett concurred with Roberts on most points but diverged on whether juries should be shielded from contextual information surrounding a president’s actions, arguing against such restrictions.

The practical implications of the ruling now rest with U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan, who will oversee Trump’s trial. Legal experts suggest that while a trial remains possible, its occurrence before the election appears improbable.

Critics, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, denounced the decision as undermining the credibility of the Supreme Court, particularly given the involvement of justices appointed by Trump.

The court’s deliberations spanned several months, highlighting the complexity and significance of the case amidst a highly charged political climate. Trump, who faces multiple legal challenges, including one in New York where he was recently convicted, maintains his innocence and attributes the prosecutions to political motivations aimed at hindering his political aspirations.

Jack Smith, leading federal inquiries into Trump’s alleged misconduct, declined to comment following the ruling. The cases against Trump span several jurisdictions, focusing on different aspects of his presidency and post-presidential actions.

Looking ahead, the timing of any trial in Washington could influence Trump’s future political endeavors. A favorable outcome for him in the 2024 election could potentially lead to the dismissal of ongoing cases against him or even self-pardon, though state-level convictions would remain unaffected by such actions.

The Supreme Court’s decision, which included participation from justices connected to Trump, underscores the judiciary’s role in shaping legal outcomes with significant political ramifications.

Harris Steps into Spotlight as Biden’s Debate Performance Stirs Speculation

President Biden’s lackluster debate performance has thrust Vice President Harris into the spotlight.

After Biden struggled against former President Trump, Harris hit the airwaves to defend her running mate’s record and ability to handle the job. But she was also central to conversations among some Democrats about whether Biden should step aside, a move that would likely move Harris to the top of the ticket in November.

It puts Harris in a tricky spot as she seeks to reassure nervous Democrats about their chances in this year’s election while positioning herself as a potential future leader of the party.

“To be quite honest, she sounded coherent and made her points in a succinct and sharp way,” said one Democratic donor. “The next 30 days it may be up to her to make the case. People will be looking to her and testing her to see if she’s ready.”

One Democrat, who served in the Obama White House, said Harris “clearly has a purpose now to make the case for what they have accomplished.”

The aide pointed to remarks from former President Obama, where he likened major political moments to a relay race.

“This is the transitional moment where both she and Biden have their hands on the baton, but clearly she will be needed to complete the race,” the aide said.

Biden squared off with Trump on the debate stage Thursday night in what turned out to be a disastrous performance. The president’s voice was raspy for much of the 90 minutes, his delivery was frequently halting and at times he lost his train of thought or struggled to make his point clearly.

Many Democrats quickly panned Biden’s showing and raised the idea that he should step aside ahead of the party’s August convention.

That left Harris to defend her running mate on the same networks where anchors and pundits were discussing the prospect of Biden leaving the ticket.

“People can debate on style points, but ultimately this election and who is the president of the United States has to be about substance,” said Harris, who conceded Biden had a “slow start.”

The vice president was not asked about, nor did she address, the elephant in the room: that she would be the likeliest candidate to replace Biden should he step aside.

The vice president’s team on Friday dismissed any talk of a Democratic ticket that doesn’t include both Biden and Harris.

“Vice President Harris looks forward to serving a second term with President Joe Biden,” Harris spokesperson Ernie Apreza said in a statement.

Biden’s campaign and White House officials similarly shut down talk of the president dropping out of the race after Thursday’s debate. At a North Carolina rally early Friday afternoon, Biden acknowledged his difficulties on the debate stage but insisted he was up to the job.

But should he step aside, Democratic strategists have downplayed the prospect of an open convention. They argued Harris would be the logical choice, given her role as vice president, and warned of the risks of passing over a Black woman already on the ticket for another candidate.

Harris launched a much-hyped presidential bid of her own in 2019, and one of her marquee moments came during an exchange with Biden on the debate stage over busing. But she failed to translate the initial enthusiasm over her candidacy into tangible support and struggled to connect with voters or develop a clear message. She ultimately dropped out before the Iowa caucuses.

When Biden was considering Harris as his running mate, some allies cautioned that Harris would be looking out for her own political pursuits while serving as vice president. Aware of that perception, Harris has sought to be a loyal foot soldier.

“She knew it would be a horrible look if it turned [out] to be the Kamala show,” said one Democratic strategist.

Harris had a rocky opening to her tenure as vice president, stumbling with her messaging on the issue of migration and struggling to garner support for a voting rights package despite taking it on as a personal cause.

But she has hit her stride and become a valuable figure in the two years since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Harris has traveled the country to talk about reproductive rights, becoming the face of the White House and the campaign on an issue Democrats are hoping might swing the election in their favor.

Harris has also traveled internationally to meet with world leaders and discuss the conflict in Ukraine.

“During her postdebate interview blitz, Vice President Harris really showed her strengths — she is a forceful communicator, an effective leader and a strong partner to President Biden,” said Rachel Palermo, who served as Harris’s deputy communications director and associate counsel in the White House.

“She reminded voters that the substance matters, and the contrast between Biden and Trump on the issues is clear,” Palermo added.

Polling on Harris’s chances in 2024 if she were elevated to the top of the ticket has been scarce, but the available data suggests she may fare similarly to Biden.

A February New York Times/Siena College poll found Harris trailing Trump among likely voters in a hypothetical match-up by 6 percentage points, 42 percent support to 48 percent. She fared only slightly worse than Biden, who at the time trailed Trump in that survey by 4 percentage points, 44 percent to 48 percent.

The same poll found 38 percent of likely voters had a favorable view of Harris, compared to 54 percent who had an unfavorable view of her.

Republicans have used Biden’s age to attack the prospect of a Harris presidency. Nikki Haley made it central to her failed presidential bid, suggesting a vote for Biden in 2024 was actually a vote for Harris.

The Trump campaign ran an ad during Thursday night’s debate that highlighted footage of Biden tripping on the stairs of Air Force One and looking lost on stage before a narrator said Harris was “waiting behind him.”

Thursday’s debate supercharged speculation from Republicans that Harris may ultimately end up in the Oval Office.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said Friday he planned to put forth a resolution urging Harris to convene the Cabinet and declare Biden unable to carry out the duties of the Oval Office.

Former President Trump’s Debate Victory Sparks Global Preparations for Potential Second Term

Former President Donald Trump’s apparent success in the recent presidential debate has heightened global efforts to brace for a potential second Trump administration, despite international audiences favoring President Joe Biden.

During the debate, Trump asserted that foreign nations lack respect for Biden’s leadership and the United States, contradicting a recent Pew poll indicating that respondents in over 30 countries have more confidence in Biden than Trump regarding foreign policy decisions.

Low global confidence in Trump partly explains why U.S. allies are strategizing for an America that might withdraw from global affairs, either through policy shifts or internal turmoil and partisanship.

Diplomatic protocol typically discourages foreign representatives from commenting on other countries’ elections or internal politics. However, over the past year, senior foreign officials have actively maintained relationships with Trump and his national security circle.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron met Trump at Mar-a-Lago in April, advocating for continued U.S. support for Ukraine. Similarly, Polish President Andrzej Duda spent two and a half hours with Trump in New York in April, describing it as a “friendly meeting, in a very pleasant atmosphere.”

Outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg highlighted the alliance’s economic contributions to the U.S. at the Heritage Foundation earlier this year. The Washington think tank is considered a staging ground for officials in a potential second Trump administration.

NATO’s next Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, a disciplined former Dutch prime minister, won Trump’s favor despite interrupting and contradicting him during Washington meetings.

In Asia, U.S. allies heavily rely on American political and military backing. However, they are strengthening ties among themselves and with Europe to counter Trump’s threats to withdraw security commitments if defense spending is insufficient. The presence of Indo-Pacific allies at NATO summits, such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, underscores this effort.

“That’s clearly an effort to ensure that even without the United States around that those relationships will continue to grow and those democracies will continue to support one another,” said Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University.

In private discussions, diplomats avoid expressing anxiety over a second Trump administration, instead focusing on past successes with Trump as a guide for future cooperation.

While Trump offered few substantive foreign policy priorities during the debate, he provided significant, albeit brief, answers on key issues. For instance, Ukraine’s supporters might find solace in Trump’s debate rejection of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands to block Ukraine from joining NATO and recognize Russian control over occupied territory in exchange for ending the war.

Preparations are underway for NATO to assume America’s leading role in coordinating support for Ukraine. When Biden hosts the NATO summit in Washington next month, allies are expected to announce that NATO will lead the Ramstein group, which coordinates weapon supplies for Kyiv. NATO is also expected to agree on language outlining Ukraine’s path to membership.

Congress’s support for NATO serves as a safeguard against Trump’s threats to withdraw or withhold U.S. commitments. Nonetheless, bilateral U.S. partnerships remain crucial, and European and Asian leaders have been preparing for months to maintain warm ties with Trump’s circle in anticipation of a possible chaotic second term.

Some countries have dispatched envoys to the U.S. to lobby Republicans at the state level, aiming to mitigate some of Trump’s most concerning threats. Germany’s coordinator of transatlantic cooperation, Michael Link, has met with governors across the U.S. to prevent punitive tariffs on EU goods if Trump is reelected. “It would be extremely important, if Donald Trump were reelected, to prevent the punitive tariffs he is planning on goods from the EU,” Link told Reuters earlier this year.

In the Middle East, a second Trump term would be met with “jubilation,” said Farkas, citing the close ties between Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Trump reportedly spoke with the crown prince in April, amid Biden’s efforts to broker a cease-fire in the Gaza conflict between Israel and Hamas. “I think the Middle East is an area where, if anything they’re hoping for a Trump outcome, they’re not really hedging,” Farkas added.

Although Trump has criticized Israel’s handling of the Gaza conflict and holds grudges against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for recognizing Biden’s 2020 victory, his reelection could bolster Israel’s far-right. “The [Israeli] opposition and the Palestinian people would not be happy with Trump because again, he has been happy to give a blank check to Netanyahu and the Israeli government. It’s the same philosophy, I think, for all the Arab states, basically. Trump will let them do what they want to do and do business with them,” Farkas explained.

During the debate, Trump did not commit to supporting an independent Palestinian state for peace and urged Israel to “finish the job” against Hamas. These positions might conflict with Arab and Gulf states, whose populations support Palestinian rights, noted Gerald Feierstein, director of the Middle East Institute’s Arabian Peninsula Affairs Program and former U.S. ambassador to Qatar. “If Trump wants to pursue the Saudi-Israel agreement, and if the Saudis stick to their guns about no deal without Palestine, that probably means there probably won’t be an Israel-Saudi deal,” Feierstein said, adding that this could change if Netanyahu is ousted.

Despite potential conflicts, Israel and Gulf states are likely to welcome a Trump administration focused on containing Iran, as outlined by Robert O’Brien, Trump’s last national security adviser, who is expected to hold a senior position in a second Trump administration. “The focus of U.S. policy in the Middle East should remain the malevolent actor that is ultimately most responsible for the turmoil and killing: the Iranian regime,” O’Brien wrote in a policy paper for Foreign Affairs.

Trump often claims that Putin would not have invaded Ukraine and Hamas would not have attacked Israel if he were president, assertions that cannot be verified. However, his statements highlight his advisers’ efforts to develop a foreign policy for a potential second term emphasizing a strongman image. “This morass of American weakness and failure cries out for a Trumpian restoration of peace through strength,” O’Brien wrote.

Philadelphia Inquirer Urges Trump’s Withdrawal from 2024 Race, Citing Lies and Chaos

The editorial board of The Philadelphia Inquirer recently penned an opinion piece urging a specific presidential candidate to withdraw from the 2024 race. The board made it clear that they were not referring to President Biden, stating, “The only person who should withdraw from the race is Trump.” They emphasized their stance by noting, “Supporters say they like Trump because he says whatever he thinks. But he mainly spews raw sewage.”

The editorial board further criticized Trump’s approach, highlighting that he “constantly tears the country down” in his efforts to build himself up. They lamented the absence of a “shining city on the hill,” painting a grim picture of the current state of affairs in America.

The centerpiece of the board’s argument revolved around the staggering number of lies—over 30,000 during his time in office, with at least 30 falsehoods uttered during a single debate. The board described the debate as “a reminder of what another four years of Trump would look like. More lies, grievance, narcissism, and hate.”

The board proceeded to dissect Trump’s first term in office, highlighting his extensive Twitter use and frequent visits to his own properties, where he reportedly played over 200 games of golf. They also pointed out his unfulfilled promises, such as the border wall with Mexico.

In addition, the board criticized Trump’s judicial appointments, noting that he primarily selected extreme judges, many of whom were white males, with some being rated as unqualified by the American Bar Association. They also highlighted the record number of fired or resigned cabinet officials, the constant chaos and infighting in the West Wing, and other shortcomings of his administration.

Further, the board addressed various controversies during Trump’s tenure, including a lucrative deal struck by his son-in-law with Saudi Arabia’s government, his impeachments, and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. They also mentioned his recent conviction on 34 counts of fraud in New York and his involvement in three additional federal cases, including one related to an attempted overthrow of the government.

The board questioned the decision to allow Trump on the debate stage, given his track record. They acknowledged President Biden’s performance in the debate as less than stellar but emphasized his belief in the best of America and his efforts to rebuild international relationships. They unequivocally stated, “There was only one person at the debate who does not deserve to be running for president. The sooner Trump exits the stage, the better off the country will be.”

The Philadelphia Inquirer’s editorial board called for Trump to withdraw from the presidential race, citing a multitude of reasons, and expressed their belief that the country would be better off without his candidacy.

Replacing Biden as Democratic Nominee: Unlikely and Complicated Process Unless Voluntary Withdrawal Occurs

Replacing President Biden as the Democratic nominee is fraught with complications and is essentially unfeasible unless Biden decides to step down on his own accord. Both politically and procedurally, it is nearly impossible for the Democrats to prevent Biden from securing the nomination.

Currently, Biden is the only candidate available for a vote at the Democratic convention. He received 99 percent of his party’s delegates in the primaries, with these delegates pledged to support the winner of their state’s contest in the initial round of voting. According to Democratic National Committee (DNC) rules, delegates won by Biden are required to support his nomination unless he voluntarily withdraws and releases them to support another candidate.

Although the DNC could theoretically change the rules to block Biden before the convention starts on August 19, such a move would necessitate an extraordinary level of political backing, which is hard to envision. A factional clash at the convention to unseat him seems highly improbable.

However, Democratic sources told The Hill that there is a slight chance party leaders, including former Presidents Obama and Clinton, might be persuaded to talk to Biden about stepping down. Ultimately, Biden places the most trust in the advice from First Lady Jill Biden and his sister, Valerie, who are considered the only people capable of truly influencing his decision.

A unique situation in 2024 further compresses the timeline for deciding the nominee. Ohio state law mandates that its ballot be certified 90 days before the election, which this year falls on August 7, almost two weeks before the convention starts. Despite attempts by Ohio lawmakers to pass a bill to resolve this issue, they reached a deadlock, leading DNC leaders to plan for a virtual nomination of Biden ahead of the deadline and the convention. Any change in the nominee would thus need to occur before Ohio’s deadline to ensure the candidate appears on the state’s ballot, barring a legislative fix.

On Friday, party leaders were rallying around Biden, showing no indication of privately urging him to step aside. His campaign, the White House, and his supporters have strongly resisted the idea, though some mentioned that if polls reveal his performance is detrimental to down-ballot candidates, it could become a pressing topic.

If Biden were to step down, Vice President Harris would be the natural successor. Nevertheless, she would not automatically become the replacement. Although Biden won the primaries, his support garnered through those contests cannot be directly transferred to Harris. Instead, she would need to compete with other potential candidates, who might view themselves as stronger contenders against the presumptive GOP nominee, former President Trump.

According to its bylaws, the DNC holds general responsibility for the party’s affairs between national conventions, which includes filling vacancies in the nominations for president and vice president. Should Biden withdraw, a vacancy would be created, and Harris would logically be the successor. Politically, it would be difficult for someone to replace Harris if Biden wanted her to lead the ticket. However, prospective politicians like California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer might still attempt to vie for the position.

“This is the bigger pickle to replacing Biden. I don’t see the Democratic coalition surviving intact if Harris is not on the top of the ticket, and it’s hard to assure that would be the party consensus if they replace Biden,” a former DNC official said.

If multiple Democratic candidates aimed to replace a withdrawn Biden as the party’s nominee, they would likely need to contend with state delegations at the August convention in Chicago. This could result in a scenario not seen in American politics for decades: a contested convention that actually determines the party’s nominee.

Conservative groups have suggested they would file lawsuits across the country, potentially questioning the legality of the Democratic candidate’s name on the ballot under such circumstances. In an interview with the Associated Press, Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, noted that courts have consistently refrained from intervening in political primaries as long as the parties conducting them were not infringing upon other constitutional rights, such as voter suppression based on race.

Debate Struggles Highlight Age Concerns for Biden as Harris Faces Tough Poll Numbers Against Trump

Joe Biden faced challenges during his debate with Donald Trump on Thursday night, raising questions about how his vice president, Kamala Harris, would handle a debate against the former president.

The two leaders met in Atlanta for their first face-off in nearly four years, with Biden’s age being a significant concern. At 81, he is the oldest president in U.S. history. During the debate, Biden struggled, sounding hoarse and losing his train of thought at one point. These issues intensified discussions among Democrats about whether he should continue as the party’s nominee.

With four months until Election Day, there’s no definitive front-runner to replace Biden. However, Vice President Kamala Harris is a potential candidate. At 59, she is significantly younger than both Biden and Trump, who is three years younger than Biden. If Biden were to step down, Harris would automatically assume the presidency, making her a logical choice for a potential switch in the Biden-Harris campaign.

Polls suggest Harris faces a tougher challenge against Trump than Biden. According to RealClearPolling averages, Trump leads Harris by 6.6 percentage points, with 49.3 percent support compared to her 42.7 percent. In contrast, Trump is ahead of Biden by only 1.5 points, with 46.6 percent to Biden’s 45.1 percent.

A Politico and Morning Consult poll conducted earlier this month showed that only a third of voters believe Harris would win the election if she became the Democratic nominee. Additionally, only 60 percent of Democrats think she would succeed.

Harris has faced criticism for not having a more prominent role in the Biden administration. Less than a year into Biden’s term, the White House issued a statement to counter claims that Harris had not met expectations. In November 2021, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, “For anyone who needs to hear it. @VP is not only a vital partner to @POTUS but a bold leader who has taken on key, important challenges facing the country—from voting rights to addressing root causes of migration to expanding broadband.”

Appointed by Biden to handle the border crisis, Harris has been criticized for the response to the influx of migrants since Biden took office. Immigration remains a top concern for voters, more than three years after Harris was named Biden’s border czar.

Harris’ reputation has struggled due to early missteps, and her approval rating reflects this. FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages indicate that less than 40 percent of Americans approve of her performance as vice president, with nearly half disapproving. Biden and Trump’s approval ratings are similarly low, with Biden’s approval around 38 percent and 56 percent disapproving. Trump has a 42 percent favorable opinion, while about 53 percent view him unfavorably.

Despite these challenges, Harris remains supportive of Biden’s candidacy. After the debate, she defended Biden in an interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper, acknowledging his “slow start” but praising his “strong finish” in the 90-minute event. Harris emphasized, “What we saw tonight was the president making a very clear contrast with Donald Trump on all the issues that matter to the American people.”

When Cooper suggested that Biden’s debate performance was disappointing, Harris responded assertively, saying, “I’m not going to spend all night with you talking about the last 90 minutes when I’ve been watching the last three and a half years of performance.”

Senate Republicans Block Tax Credit Expansion, Democrats Claim Political Motive to Deny Biden Victory

Senate Democrats accuse Senate Republicans of blocking an expansion of the child tax credit and a corporate tax credits package, despite significant support from business groups, to prevent President Biden from securing a legislative win five months before Election Day.

This marks the second instance this year where presidential politics have caused a divide between Senate Republicans and major business trade groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable.

Earlier this year, Senate Republicans overwhelmingly voted against a bipartisan border security deal endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable, among others, following former President Trump’s instructions to avoid giving Biden a victory on border security.

Democrats allege Republicans are once again obstructing a major bipartisan initiative to aid Trump. “The business community still really wants that; we really want it. It’s all presidential politics — they don’t want to give Biden a win. That’s 100 percent what it is,” stated a senior Senate Democrat regarding the opposition to the House-passed Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024.

The senator noted that Senate Democrats are intensifying efforts to break through the Republican blockade. “We are trying very hard. There’s no real reason they’re objecting,” the source said.

The proposed package aims to reinstate research and development expensing for businesses, which expired in 2022. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has urged the Senate to approve the package, warning that failing to restore research and development expensing retroactively would cause “irreversible harm to U.S. innovation and competitiveness.”

The Business Roundtable has also pushed for the Senate to pass the legislation. Joshua Bolten, the CEO of the Business Roundtable, emphasized that it would “boost business investment at home, create American jobs and strengthen U.S. competitiveness.”

The bill also enhances the child tax credit to help low-income families manage inflation and increases tax relief for victims of disasters like the 2023 toxic rail derailment in East Palestine, Ohio.

Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) supports his colleagues’ view that Senate Republicans are blocking the tax package to boost Trump’s prospects by denying Biden a legislative success. “No question about it. They said that right from the get-go,” Wyden told The Hill.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (Iowa), a senior Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, previously indicated that Senate Republicans did not want to help Biden “look good” and improve his reelection chances. He expressed concerns that Biden’s reelection would eliminate any possibility of renewing Trump’s 2017 tax cuts before they expire at the end of next year. “Passing a tax bill that makes the president look good, mailing out checks before the election, means he could be reelected and then we won’t extend the 2017 tax cuts,” Grassley told Semafor on the day the House passed the tax bill.

For Democrats, this situation mirrors the fate of the bipartisan border security deal negotiated by Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), James Lankford (R-Okla.), and the White House. Only four Senate Republicans supported the deal after Trump advised his Senate allies to reject it to deny Biden a victory.

Wyden crafted the stalled $79 billion tax package with House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.), and it passed the House with overwhelming support, 357-70. The package would restore Section 174 expensing for research and development investments and 100 percent “bonus” depreciation, allowing businesses to deduct more depreciation costs than normally allowed. It also includes a low-income housing tax credit to increase affordable housing supply.

The package is nearly fully funded by advancing the deadline for filing backdated pandemic-related employee retention tax credit claims, according to a PwC analysis.

Amanda Critchfield, spokesperson for Sen. Mike Crapo (Idaho), the top-ranking Republican on the Finance Committee, said her boss “fully supports extending the pro-growth business provisions” and “also supports expanding the child tax credit to provide additional tax relief to working families.” However, she noted that Crapo “has policy concerns with the current bill, as do other Republican members, and he has been clear that he would like to find a compromise that a majority of Republican senators can support.”

A tax lobbyist familiar with the bill’s passage efforts said the business community has intensified its lobbying efforts towards Senate Republicans. “The Chamber and other business groups are very firmly for it, and they are making the rounds,” the source said. “The business community has upped its effort, and they’re saying because of the expiration of 174 and expensing, we really do have tangible economic harm. Companies are doing grasstops lobbying at home, and that’s starting to sink in. The business community is upping the ante,” the source added.

Watson McLeish, senior vice president for tax policy at the U.S. Chamber, warned in a statement on Monday that the Senate’s failure to advance the tax package is burdening employers. “As the tax extenders package remains stalled in the Senate, some small and midsize businesses have been forced to take out high-interest loans, raise prices, pare back operations, and even cut jobs just to survive and pay their taxes,” McLeish said. “We urge the Senate to take up this legislation immediately after the Independence Day recess and send it to the President’s desk to be signed into law.”

A Senate Republican aide mentioned that Senate GOP leaders are deferring to Crapo on handling the issue and pointed out that he might prefer to delay action on expired tax breaks until after the election, by which time Republicans will know if they will control the Senate in 2025. Some Republican senators believe they will secure a better deal on extending expired provisions if they control the White House and Senate, though waiting until after the election carries the risk that Democrats could retain the White House and regain control of the House.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) told reporters earlier this month he hopes to bring the bill to the floor if it garners more Republican support. “I supported it the minute it was announced. I think it’s a good bill; I was very proud that I pushed hard and got into the bill the low-income housing tax credit,” Schumer said last week. “I’m currently working with Chairman Wyden to try and get something done. It’s not dead.”

Calls Grow Louder For Biden To Dop Out Of Presidential Election, After His Disastrous Debate Performance

President Joe Biden was supposed to put the nation’s mind at ease over his physical and mental capacity with his debate with Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee on Thursday night. They hoped that President Biden, 81, could convince the world that his age was nothing to worry about and that he could counter Donald Trump’s wild accusations and relentless falsehoods with confidence.

But from the onset of the debate, Biden struggled even to talk, mostly summoning a weak, raspy voice. Biden’s voice was hoarse and halting. His answers were often unclear, and he struggled to finish his thoughts. In the opening minutes, he repeatedly tripped over his words, misspoke and lost his train of thought.

Biden produced the weakest performance since John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon started the tradition of televised debates in 1960 — then, as on Thursday, in a television studio with no audience.

Rather than dispel concerns about his age, his garbled debate performance reinforced his frailties and sent shudders of anxiety through Democrats who believe former President Trump is poised to benefit in November. Thursday’s presidential debate saw a raspy and sometimes halting President Joe Biden struggling to confront Donald Trump on the CNN stage, spurring panic from his party.

Biden’s faltering debate performance has worried Democrats openly discussing for the need to have the president step aside for a younger candidate while elated Republicans gloat over his stumbles. “He’s not equipped to be president,” Trump said during the debate.

If the debate was the president’s best chance to turn around a tight race with Trump, which has him in deep peril of losing reelection, it was a failure.

In a hoarse voice that gained volume as the 90 minutes wore on, Biden attempted to draw substantive contrasts with his challenger, but his meandering points and blank expressions handed Trump ammunition to reprise his campaign theme that Biden is a “disaster” who is “destroying” the country.

The president, in turn, attacked Trump’s policies, morals, veracity and motives. He referred to his predecessor as “this guy,” said “he’s lying,” called Trump “a loser” and “a sucker” and “a convicted felon.” Biden said Trump “slept with a porn star,” referring to Stormy Daniels, the woman at the center of the former president’s New York conviction for falsifying hush money payments as business expenses.

“Number one, I didn’t sleep with a porn star,” Trump replied. At one point, Trump boasted about his golf prowess as evidence of his fitness and health. Biden had a comeback about his own golf handicap, as if the two were scrapping in a locker room. “Let’s not act like children,” Trump admonished.

Trump rolled over Biden, landing punch after punch. Not with logic. And certainly not with truth. But with force of personality and sheer chutzpah.
Biden struggled to articulate policy specifics, statistics and rebuttals, often stumbling or misspeaking. Early in the debate, Biden seemed to lose his train of thought and said, “We finally beat Medicare.”

The Biden campaign’s demand that each candidate’s mic be muted when it wasn’t their turn to talk seemed to help Trump. He largely waited to speak and seemed to enjoy himself. Trump seized on Biden’s halting speech, saying at one point: “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said, either.” Trump refused to say that he would accept the results of the November election, saying he would do so only “if it’s a fair, and legal, and good election.”
Questions about Biden’s age and frailty have dragged down his polling numbers for months. The public concerns are exacerbated by deceptively edited videos, some of which have gone viral, that cut off relevant parts of an event, making it appear as if Biden is wandering or confused. This was Biden’s first opportunity since the State of the Union speech to dispel that narrative.

In watch parties, bars, a bowling alley, and other venues where people across the country gathered to tune in, Trump supporters, happily, and Biden supporters, in their angst if not dread, seemed to largely agree they had witnessed a lopsided showdown.
Instead of a new beginning, many Democrats saw it as a moment for panic. “Democrats just committed collective suicide,” said a party strategist who has worked on presidential campaigns. “Biden sounds hoarse, looks tired and is babbling. He is reaffirming everything voters already perceived. President Biden can’t win. This debate is a nail in the political coffin.”

“Biden just had to beat himself; unfortunately the stumbling and diminished Joe Biden the world has come to know made Trump look competent and energetic,” said a former Trump campaign official who isn’t working for his campaign this year. “I expect there will be some loud calls from Democrats for a change on the top of the ticket.”
“It’s hard to argue that we shouldn’t nominate someone else,” a Democratic consultant who works on down-ballot races said.

Democrats fear a Biden loss could take down other candidates. Some chattered online and to reporters behind the scenes Thursday night about possible emergency off-ramps. One House Democrat from a swing state told The Hill, “Biden’s team needs to convince him to withdraw and have an open convention.”
After the debate, “Dump Biden” opinion pieces are everywhere this morning. “There are no two ways about it. That was not a good debate for Joe Biden,” Kate Bedingfield, who served as Biden’s longtime communications aide, conceded on CNN.

But the panic among donors and party officials after watching Biden falter Thursday night in his debate against Trump has led some of them to take steps to get Biden out of the race.

There are already discussions among Democratic fundraisers about trying to convince congressional leaders — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in particular — to urge Biden to announce to drop out, according to people familiar with the matter who were granted anonymity to speak freely.

But replacing Biden as the party’s pick less than five months out from Election Day carries enormous political risks and would be difficult, if not impossible, to pull off. Right now, the only likely way Biden could be replaced is if he willingly ends his campaign.

And Biden’s aides and top Democratic officials say the 81-year-old incumbent has no plans to do so. Closing ranks around his former vice-president, former Pressident Barack Obama tweeted a link to a fundraising page on Biden’s campaign website and offered words of encouragement.

“Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know,” Obama said, referring to his own lackluster encounter against Mitt Romney in 2012. He said this election remains a choice between someone, Biden, who cares about ordinary people and tells the truth, against someone who doesn’t, Trump. “Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November.”

“Democrats are in a very difficult situation because it’s late in the campaign for a change,” said Meena Bose, director of the Peter S. Kalikow Center for the Study of the American Presidency at Hofstra University, in an interview with CNBC. The only feasible way Bose could see it playing out is with Biden throwing his full support behind Vice President Kamala Harris to become the new nominee.

Asked on Friday about Democratic concerns with his showing and whether he should consider stepping aside, Biden said, “No, It’s hard to debate a liar.”

“I know I’m not a young man, to state the obvious,” Biden told a crowd that chanted “four more years, four more years.” The president added, “I don’t walk as easy as I used to. I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to.” Biden went on, raising his voice,“But I know what I do know. I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. And I know how to do this job.”

“I know what millions of Americans know: When you get knocked down, you get back up.”

Supreme Court Dismisses Idaho Abortion Ban Appeal Amidst Divisions, Shaping 2024 Campaign Discourse

The Supreme Court made a significant move on Thursday by formally dismissing an appeal regarding Idaho’s stringent abortion ban. This action effectively halted the enforcement of the state law, a day after the court’s opinion was accidentally published on its website, marking a rare departure from its usual tightly controlled procedures.

The case stems from a challenge mounted by the Justice Department following the Supreme Court’s landmark decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022. At the heart of the matter is whether federal regulations mandating emergency room care in hospitals supersede abortion bans that do not make exceptions for situations where a woman’s health is at risk but her life is not immediately in danger.

In April, the Supreme Court justices displayed profound divisions during oral arguments concerning the Biden administration’s opposition to Idaho’s abortion restrictions.

The court’s decision today arrives amidst a backdrop where abortion has emerged as a pivotal issue in the 2024 presidential campaign. President Joe Biden has squarely attributed the surge in new abortion limitations nationwide to his Republican challenger, Donald Trump.

Global Perspectives: Impact of US Election Echoes Worldwide

When Americans select their next president, the world watches closely, aware of the profound global implications of US foreign policy and White House actions. The upcoming debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will prominently feature discussions on American influence abroad.

The election’s impact stretches beyond familiar battlegrounds like Ukraine, Israel, and Gaza. BBC’s foreign correspondents highlight why this election resonates globally.

Russian Perspective

Russian observers scrutinize the US election for potential implications on stability. Vladimir Putin’s preference for predictability suggests a cautious leaning towards Joe Biden, despite Trump’s initial appeal. Moscow remains wary after unmet expectations during Trump’s first term.

Taiwan and China

Both candidates advocate toughness towards China but differ significantly on Taiwan. Biden emphasizes solidarity with regional allies against Beijing’s assertiveness, contrasting with Trump’s transactional approach and ambiguous commitments towards Taiwan’s defense.

Ukrainian Concerns

In Ukraine, US support against Russian aggression is critical, although public attention amidst ongoing conflict remains subdued. Ukrainian analysts weigh Trump’s rhetoric against Biden’s historical backing, underscoring the pragmatic uncertainties of campaign promises.

UK’s Uncertainty

UK policymakers view the election with apprehension, fearing potential shifts in US policy towards military alliances, trade disputes, and democratic stability post-election. The UK grapples with the dilemma of aligning with democratic values amidst global political turbulence.

Israeli Perspectives

Israeli sentiments towards Trump are favorable, recalling diplomatic gains despite Biden’s recent criticisms over Palestinian casualties. Trump’s pro-Israel stance contrasts with Biden’s support for a two-state solution, shaping Middle East expectations.

India’s Strategic Calculations

India, a strategic partner in US-China rivalry, anticipates continuity in bilateral relations, irrespective of the election outcome. Modi’s engagements with both Biden and Trump reflect India’s adaptability to US political dynamics.

Mexican Memories

Mexicans recall Trump’s divisive rhetoric but acknowledge his administration’s cooperation on critical issues like immigration. Incoming President Sheinbaum seeks to redefine Mexico’s stance under a new US administration, emphasizing continuity in bilateral relations.

Canadian Concerns

Canada anticipates potential trade disruptions under a second Trump term, contrasting with efforts to safeguard bilateral interests through proactive diplomacy and economic advocacy.

US Surgeon General Declares Gun Violence a Public Health Crisis, Calls for Action and Policy Change

US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy has labeled gun violence a public health crisis, aiming to address the United States’ leading position in global shooting deaths. In an unprecedented report calling for action, the top medical official highlighted that most Americans or their family members have been affected by gun violence.

Dr. Murthy believes a public health approach, similar to past efforts on seatbelt safety and smoking cessation, could mitigate gun violence. He aims to depoliticize the issue, urging Americans to focus on the impacts and data.

“I want people to understand the full impact gun violence is having on the United States,” Dr. Murthy told the BBC in an interview on Tuesday.

“For every one life lost, there are two people who are shot and injured and are experiencing mental and physical health consequences, family members who grieve the loss of a loved one, witnesses to these incidents, and millions who read about and hear about gun violence every day in the papers.”

Gun safety advocates are cautiously optimistic about the advisory, seeing it as a step towards changing public perception.

“This is not a political issue,” Dr. Chethan Sathya, director of Northwell Health’s Center for Gun Violence Prevention, told the BBC.

“This is about safer communities, firearm safety, and violence prevention.”

While the 40-page report is largely symbolic and does not mandate policy changes, it is considered a significant step towards reducing deaths and reshaping the conversation around guns in America.

Dr. Sathya describes it as “legitimising” the use of research and public health resources to address gun violence.

“This isn’t just an issue of ‘we need background checks’ and we’re done,” he said.

“We need a lot of different nuanced policy and strategy to be able to tackle this in a way that makes sense for all Americans.”

The report emphasizes understanding the magnitude of the problem. Since 2020, firearms have been the leading cause of death for children and young Americans. The U.S. gun death rate is 11.4 times higher than in 28 other high-income countries, underscoring the problem as uniquely American.

“We don’t have to continue down this path, and we don’t have to subject our children to the ongoing horror of firearm violence in America,” Dr. Murthy stated.

“It will take the collective commitment of our nation to turn the tide.”

Dr. Jeffrey Swanson, whose research is cited in the report, was a founding member of the Consortium for Risk-Based Firearms Policy. This group helped establish “red flag laws,” which allow courts to temporarily prevent those in crisis from accessing guns. Such laws are now in place in 21 states and the District of Columbia.

“Guns have taken on a symbolic role, as kind of a rail in the culture wars, and it’s a very divisive issue,” he told the BBC.

“But if we start with one square inch of common ground, I think that is an important step.”

Dr. Swanson, a sociology and psychiatry professor at Duke University, emphasizes the importance of asking the right questions and conducting informed research to develop evidence-based policies.

“We have to actually make some headway in terms of changing the culture around guns and, if you look at public health history, there’s a precedent for that,” he said, referencing previous public health efforts on seatbelt safety and smoking.

“Now people get in their car and, no matter what their politics are, put their seatbelts on. They don’t do it because there’s a law. They do it because it just feels natural, because our culture has changed.”

Despite the support from ten leading national medical associations for Dr. Murthy’s report, conservative pushback was immediate. The National Rifle Association (NRA), the nation’s most prominent gun lobby, criticized the report on social media, calling it “an extension of the Biden Administration’s war on law-abiding gun owners.”

Dr. Murthy’s declaration of gun violence as a public health crisis aims to shift the narrative from political debate to public health concern. The report calls for comprehensive strategies and policies to address the issue, drawing on successful public health interventions from the past. Despite resistance from certain political factions, the hope is to create safer communities and reduce the devastating impact of gun violence on American lives.

Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump, Globally

By Richard Wike, Janell Fetterolf, Maria Smerkovich, Sarah Austin and Sofia Hernandez Ramones

With many around the world closely following the fiercely contested rematch between U.S. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, a new Pew Research Center survey finds that, internationally, Biden is viewed more positively than his rival.

Across the 34 nations polled, a median of 43% have confidence in Biden to do the right thing regarding world affairs, while just 28% have confidence in Trump. The gap between ratings is quite wide in many countries, especially in Europe. Biden’s confidence rating is at least 40 percentage points higher than Trump’s in Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden.

However, there are exceptions. There is no statistically significant difference in ratings of Biden and Trump in eight nations we surveyed. And people in Hungary and Tunisia give Trump more positive reviews than Biden, although neither leader gets especially high marks there. (The survey was conducted before Trump’s conviction in a state criminal trial in New York.)

Even though Biden gets better assessments than Trump globally, ratings for the current U.S. president are down since last year in 14 of 21 countries where trends are available, including by double digits in Australia, Israel, Japan, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump Globally

The survey included a series of questions about how Biden is handling major international issues. Overall, opinions are divided on how he is dealing with climate change and global economic problems.

Across the 34 countries polled, a median of around four-in-ten approve of how Biden is dealing with China and with the war between Russia and Ukraine (39% each).

The president gets his most negative reviews on his handling of the Israel-Hamas war: A median of just 31% approve of the way he is handling the conflict, while 57% disapprove. (The survey was conducted prior to Biden announcing a proposal to end the conflict.)

Research in the West Bank and Gaza

Pew Research Center has polled the Palestinian territories in previous years, but we were unable to conduct fieldwork in Gaza or the West Bank for our Spring 2024 survey due to security concerns. We are actively investigating possibilities for both qualitative and quantitative research on public opinion in the region and hope to be able to share data from the region in the coming months.

Six-in-ten Israelis disapprove of how Biden is handling the war, including 53% of Jewish Israelis and 86% of Arab Israelis. (For more on how Israelis rate Biden, read “Israeli Views of the Israel-Hamas War.”)

Of the predominantly Muslim nations surveyed, large majorities in Malaysia, Tunisia and Turkey also disapprove of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. Opinion is divided on this issue in Bangladesh.

The new survey finds that overall attitudes toward the United States are generally positive: A median of 54% across the nations polled have a favorable view of the U.S., while 31% have a negative opinion.

However, criticisms of American democracy are common in many nations. We asked respondents whether U.S. democracy is a good example for other countries to follow, used to be a good example but has not been in recent years, or has never been a good example.

Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump Globally

The predominant view in most countries is that the U.S. used to be a good model but has not been recently. Overall, a median of 21% believe it is currently a good example, while 22% say it has never been a good model for other countries.

In eight of the 13 countries where trends are available, fewer people say American democracy is a good example than said so in spring 2021, when we last asked this question.

For this report, we surveyed 40,566 people in 34 countries – not including the U.S. – from Jan. 5 to May 21, 2024. In addition to this overview, the report includes chapters on:

Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump Globally

At least half of those in most countries surveyed express a favorable opinion of the U.S. Poles are the most positive, at 86% favorable. Of the European nations surveyed, ratings also lean positive in Italy, Hungary and the UK. Elsewhere in Europe, however, opinions tend to be closely divided.

Attitudes toward the U.S. are largely favorable in the Asia-Pacific nations polled, especially Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand. However, most Australians and Malaysians give the U.S. poor marks.

In the Middle East-North Africa region, a 77% majority of Israelis view the U.S. favorably, although this is down from 87% last year. Large majorities in Tunisia and Turkey offer an unfavorable opinion.

The U.S. gets mostly positive ratings in the sub-Saharan African and Latin American nations surveyed. Two-thirds or more see the U.S. favorably in Colombia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Peru.

Confidence in Biden, Trump and other world leaders

Pew Research Center has explored attitudes toward American presidents for over two decades, finding significant shifts in opinions over the years. Data from four Western European nations that we have surveyed consistently – France, Germany, Spain and the UK – shows long-term trends in views of recent presidents.

George W. Bush received low and declining ratings during his time in the White House, while Barack Obama got mostly high marks. Attitudes toward Donald Trump were overwhelmingly negative throughout his presidency. Biden has consistently received more positive reviews than his predecessor, but his ratings have declined in these four countries during his time in office.

Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump Globally

There are nine nations in this year’s survey where six-in-ten adults or more express confidence in Biden. Four are in Europe (Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden), two are in the Asia-Pacific region (the Philippines and Thailand) and three are in sub-Saharan Africa (Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria).

Since last year, confidence in Biden has dropped significantly in 14 nations: Seven in Europe, plus Australia, Canada, Israel, Japan, Mexico, South Africa and South Korea. Biden gets his lowest ratings in Turkey and Tunisia, where only about one-in-ten express confidence in him.

The two countries where at least six-in-ten adults have confidence in Trump are Nigeria and the Philippines. Like Biden, Trump gets one of his lowest ratings in Turkey, where just 10% view him favorably.

Confidence in Trump has increased slightly in a few European countries since we last asked about him in 2020, although his ratings remain quite low in Europe.

In contrast, Trump’s ratings have become more negative in Poland since 2019, which was the last year we asked about him there. Israeli views toward the former president have also become more negative over the past five years.

Refer to Appendix B for long-term trends in confidence in U.S. presidents.

Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump Globally Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump Globally

In addition to exploring confidence in Biden and Trump, the survey asked about trust in French President Emmanuel Macron, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Overall, Macron receives the most positive ratings across the countries in the study, followed closely by Biden. The French president gets higher ratings than his U.S. counterpart in many of the European nations surveyed. Both Xi and Putin receive mostly poor marks across the countries in the study.

Differences by ideology, age and gender

Ideology

In 17 of the 28 countries where political ideology is measured, people on the right are more likely to have a positive opinion of the U.S. than those on the left. For example, 65% of people on the right in Spain view the U.S. favorably, compared with 26% of people on the left.

In 18 countries, people on the right are more likely to express confidence in Trump than those on the left. The gap is especially large in Israel, where 75% of those on the right have confidence in him, compared with just 23% of Israelis on the left.

There are also some sizable ideological differences on views about Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. In several countries – including about half of the European countries surveyed – people on the right are more likely than those on the left to approve of how Biden is handling the conflict.

Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump Globally

Age

In several countries – including Canada, all Latin American countries surveyed and several countries in the Asia-Pacific region – adults under 35 are more likely to have a positive opinion of the U.S. when compared with adults ages 50 and older. Australia, Israel and Sweden are the only countries where younger adults have a less favorable view of the U.S.

In Canada, Australia and seven of the 10 European countries surveyed, young adults are less likely than older adults to approve of how Biden is dealing with the Israel-Hamas war.

Gender

Men have more confidence in Trump than women do in many of the countries surveyed. The largest difference is in the UK, where men are about twice as likely as women to trust the former U.S. president. In many of the countries surveyed, women are less likely than men to answer this question at all.

Biden and Trump to Clash in Early Presidential Debate: What to Expect and How to Watch

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are set to face off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 general election on Thursday night in Atlanta. This debate marks a new phase in the race, less than five months before Election Day on November 5, with the candidates in a virtual tie according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. This trend has been consistent in recent national surveys.

Breaking from tradition, this debate takes place months earlier than usual and features a new set of rules agreed upon by both candidates, including the absence of a live audience. This will be the first debate of the campaign season for both candidates; Biden ran largely unopposed, and Trump skipped the GOP primary debates.

Debate Details

The debate will start at 9 p.m. ET and run for 90 minutes, moderated by CNN’s Jake Tapper and Dana Bash at the network’s studios in Atlanta. It will be available on CNN and the streaming platform Max (formerly HBO). Those without a cable login can watch on CNN’s website. NPR will provide live updates and a livestream of the debate.

Participants

Biden and Trump are the only candidates who qualified for the debate. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not meet the threshold, which required candidates to poll at 15% or higher in four national surveys and appear on enough state ballots to theoretically secure the 270 Electoral College votes needed for the presidency.

Unique Aspects of This Debate

Unlike previous presidential debates that occur in front of a live audience, often at college or university campuses, and coordinated by the bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), this year’s debates will not follow that tradition. Both candidates opted out of the CPD’s scheduled debates in favor of earlier matchups.

Thursday’s debate will be hosted by CNN, with a second debate scheduled for September, hosted by ABC News. The agreed-upon rules include muted microphones unless a candidate is directed to speak, no prewritten notes or props (only a pen, paper, and bottle of water are allowed), and a coin toss to determine podium positions and the order of closing statements. Biden’s campaign won the coin toss and chose the podium to the viewers’ right, while Trump’s team opted to deliver the final closing statement.

Key Points to Watch

Both candidates are expected to address their recent legal issues. Trump was found guilty of 34 criminal charges in New York about a month ago, while Biden’s son, Hunter, was convicted on felony gun charges in Delaware in mid-June and faces a second federal trial in September for failing to pay taxes.

Biden is likely to address concerns about his age and ability to serve a second term. At 81, he is the oldest sitting president in U.S. history, and if re-elected, he would leave office at 86. While Biden has had public slipups during his first term, Trump, who is 78, has frequently criticized Biden’s mental capability, even suggesting a cognitive test. Ironically, Trump misnamed the doctor who conducted his cognitive exam while he was president in a recent speech.

Regarding issues, the debate will likely cover the economy and immigration policy, top concerns for voters according to national polls. International politics might also be discussed, given the divided opinions on U.S. military aid to Ukraine and Israel.

Biden may use the debate to address declining support among key voter demographics compared to 2020, particularly Blacks, Latinos, and young voters. Trump, on the other hand, is losing support among older voters, which Biden’s campaign aims to exploit. Trump may also need to mend relations with Nikki Haley supporters who are hesitant to back him again.

Upcoming Events

In the coming weeks, Trump is expected to announce his vice presidential pick. There will also be a vice presidential debate this summer, with Vice President Kamala Harris agreeing to a debate on either July 23 or August 13.

Legally, Trump faces sentencing in his criminal trial on July 11, just days before the Republican National Convention on July 15 in Milwaukee. The Democratic National Convention will follow a month later, starting on August 19 in Chicago. Biden and Trump will have a second debate on September 10.

The debate this Thursday is not just an early clash but a critical moment in an extremely close race. It offers both candidates a significant platform to address their legal issues, policy positions, and voter concerns as they vie for the presidency in a divided nation.

FIIDS Urges Biden to Include Proven Dreamers in New Immigration Strategy Amidst Persistent Green Card Backlogs

On June 19, the Foundation for India and Indian Diaspora Studies (FIIDS) urged President Joe Biden to include “proven dreamers” — spouses of green card applicants who have been backlogged — and children of long-term visa holders in his new immigration strategy. FIIDS highlighted that hundreds of thousands of spouses of lawful permanent residents are currently on extensive green card waitlists due to the 7% country-wise quota, yet they are excluded from Biden’s immigration policy.

FIIDS emphasized that children of these lawful permanent residents, who were educated in the US, face significant challenges as they age out of eligibility at 21. They argue that these children, who have grown up in the US and are considered dreamers, should not be subject to restrictive immigration policies just because they are here legally.

The Indian-American organization has called on President Biden to support the spouses of lawful permanent residents stuck in the H-1B visa backlog, which has lasted for more than a decade. FIIDS advocates for these spouses to be able to file for their own green cards and obtain work permits (Employment Authorization Documents, or EADs) independently of their spouse’s employment-based green card status.

Additionally, FIIDS proposes that the children of these backlogged green card applicants should be granted immediate employment authorization (EAD) based on their educational qualifications. According to FIIDS, implementing these policies would help keep families together and enhance their ability to contribute to the US economy.

FIIDS has also launched a petition to support this cause.

In a recent policy announcement, President Biden introduced the possibility of citizenship by marriage for non-citizens who have lived in the US for at least ten years and are married to US citizens or permanent residents, as well as their offspring. FIIDS expressed their gratitude to Biden for this policy.

President Biden announced that spouses of US citizens who have resided in the US for ten years or more can now apply for expedited citizenship. Additionally, children of undocumented immigrants who complete postsecondary education will have the opportunity to apply for work visas and eventually obtain permanent residency. FIIDS praised Biden’s initiatives, stating, “We applaud President Biden’s efforts to foster family togetherness and boost the economy, as well as his dedication to maintaining the stability of American households.”

Despite these positive developments, spouses and children of green card applicants currently experiencing a backlog are not eligible for the newly announced legal status. These individuals continue to face the challenge of the significant green card backlog.

Supreme Court Set to Deliver Major Decisions on Trump’s Immunity, Jan. 6 Charges, Social Media Laws, and Federal Agency Powers

The Supreme Court is set for a critical week, with a deadline looming by the end of June to release decisions on 14 argued cases this term. These decisions will have significant impacts, particularly a ruling on whether former President Trump has immunity from criminal prosecution.

The upcoming decisions include cases involving Jan. 6 defendants, social media regulation, and the authority of federal agencies. The court will release the next batch of opinions on Wednesday. Here are the five major unresolved decisions as the Supreme Court’s opinion season reaches its peak:

Trump’s Immunity Claims

One of the pivotal questions is whether former presidents have criminal immunity for official acts while in office. Trump has delayed his criminal trial in Washington, D.C., on charges of conspiring to overturn the 2020 election, by claiming presidential immunity. Lower courts have rejected this assertion, but the Supreme Court seemed inclined during oral arguments to provide some level of immunity, albeit less than Trump’s lawyers desired. This outcome would send the issue back to a lower court, likely aiding Trump in delaying his trial until after the election, when he hopes to regain the presidency and halt his prosecutions. However, even if the justices entirely reject Trump’s presidential immunity theory, it remains uncertain if his case will go to trial before November. Observers have criticized the justices for not expediting their decision, though the court did schedule Trump’s appeal faster than usual. The court’s final potential days of opinions overlap with the first presidential debate, set for Thursday night.

Jan. 6 Obstruction Charge

Another significant case concerns the Justice Department’s use of an obstruction charge against more than 300 Jan. 6 defendants. Joseph Fischer, one of the rioters, challenged the law used against him, arguing that it was improperly applied given its origin in the Enron accounting scandal. The law criminalizes “corruptly” obstructing, impeding, or interfering with an official government proceeding. The justices appeared wary of the government’s use of the charge during oral arguments. Siding with Fischer could disrupt many rioters’ sentences. While most faced other felony counts, 50 rioters were sentenced solely with the obstruction law, according to U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar. A ruling favoring the rioters could also support claims by Trump and his allies that the Justice Department overreached in its prosecutions and undermine the narrative that the Capitol riot was an attack on American democracy.

Biden Social Media Contacts

The Supreme Court is also set to rule on whether the Biden administration violated the Constitution by coercing social media companies to remove false or misleading content. This case, challenging the administration’s efforts to curb misinformation after the 2020 election and during the COVID-19 pandemic, could reshape how the federal government interacts with social media platforms. Two Republican attorneys general argue that federal officials violated the First Amendment by coercing social media companies to remove content deemed dangerous. The Justice Department warned that siding with the states could hinder their ability to address public concerns, prevent national security threats, and relay information. However, during oral arguments, the high court seemed to lean towards supporting the government.

Florida, Texas Social Media Laws

Another crucial issue involves laws in Texas and Florida regulating social media bans, raising questions about whether the government can dictate how social media platforms moderate content without violating the First Amendment. These laws aim to prevent social media platforms from banning users for their political views, even if they violated platform policies. Critics, including tech industry groups, argue that the laws infringe on private companies’ First Amendment right to editorial discretion. If upheld, the laws would significantly alter online speech by eliminating unique content moderation decisions, potentially stifling competition between smaller companies and increasing the prevalence of hateful, inappropriate, or incorrect content due to hesitance in moderating material.

Federal Agency Power

The Supreme Court is also poised to reconsider a 40-year-old precedent known as Chevron deference, which requires courts to defer to a federal agency’s reasonable interpretation of ambiguous laws. This doctrine has been invoked to uphold various regulations, from those on fishing boats to cryptocurrency to environmental protections. Antiregulatory interests hope the conservative-leaning court will use two current cases to limit the executive branch’s power by overturning Chevron. These cases have drawn attention from advocacy groups supporting Chevron, who are anxious about the potential questioning of the legal basis for their favored government regulations.

The Supreme Court’s upcoming decisions will have far-reaching implications on presidential immunity, the prosecution of Jan. 6 defendants, social media regulation, and the power of federal agencies. As the court’s opinion season reaches its peak, these cases will shape the legal landscape in significant ways.

Billionaire Timothy Mellon Donates $50 Million to Trump Super-PAC, Setting Record for 2024 Election; Michael Bloomberg Contributes $19 Million to Biden Campaign

Timothy Mellon, a billionaire born into one of America’s wealthiest families, has contributed $50 million to the Trump campaign super-PAC, Make America Great Again Inc., as revealed in federal filings on Thursday. This donation is now recognized as the largest individual contribution disclosed in the 2024 election cycle.

Mellon, 81, formerly served as the chairman of Pan Am Systems Inc., a private manufacturing and transportation enterprise. This year, he intends to publish a memoir about his tenure as chairman, titled “panam.captain,” through Skyhorse Publishing.

The federal documents indicate that Mellon made his substantial donation on May 31, 2024, just a day after Trump was convicted of 34 felonies by a New York state court in a significant hush-money case. Additionally, Mellon has contributed at least $20 million to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign, who is running as an independent candidate in the 2024 presidential race, according to the BBC.

TIME has contacted the Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaigns for comments and further information.

Forbes reports that Mellon is the great-grandson of Thomas Mellon, an Irish immigrant who arrived in the U.S. in 1818. Thomas Mellon was a lawyer and judge who invested in various real estate and banking ventures. By his death, he had accumulated a substantial fortune, which his sons inherited. Today, the Mellon family is worth around $14.1 billion, ranking them as the 34th wealthiest family in America.

On the other side of the political spectrum, the Biden campaign has also attracted significant donations. The Washington Post revealed that billionaire Michael Bloomberg donated $19 million to the Future Forward (FF) PAC, a pro-Biden political action committee. Additionally, Bloomberg gave another $929,600 to the Biden Victory Fund.

Timothy Mellon’s substantial contribution to the Trump campaign comes at a pivotal moment, highlighting the ongoing financial battles in the 2024 election. Mellon’s donation, made a day after Trump’s legal conviction, underscores his commitment to Trump’s political future despite the former president’s legal troubles. Trump’s conviction in a landmark hush-money trial has not deterred Mellon from providing significant financial support. The timing of this donation could be seen as a statement of defiance and unwavering support for Trump’s agenda.

Mellon’s other major political contribution is to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign, showcasing his willingness to support multiple candidates who align with his views. This $20 million donation to Kennedy’s campaign signifies Mellon’s broader influence on the 2024 presidential race, as he backs an independent candidate challenging the traditional two-party system.

Forbes’ profile of Mellon’s ancestry paints a picture of a family that has long been embedded in American wealth and influence. Thomas Mellon’s success in law and real estate laid the foundation for the Mellon family’s vast fortune, which continues to impact American society and politics today. With an estimated worth of $14.1 billion, the Mellon family remains a powerful force in the country’s economic landscape.

In parallel, the Biden campaign’s receipt of large donations underscores the high stakes of the upcoming election. Michael Bloomberg’s $19 million contribution to the Future Forward PAC and the additional funds to the Biden Victory Fund illustrate the financial muscle behind Biden’s campaign. Bloomberg’s significant support for Biden reflects his belief in the current president’s vision for America’s future. Bloomberg, a former mayor of New York City and a billionaire himself, has consistently supported Democratic causes and candidates, using his wealth to influence the political landscape.

The battle for campaign funds in the 2024 election highlights the broader contest between major political donors and their respective candidates. Timothy Mellon and Michael Bloomberg represent two sides of this financial arms race, each backing candidates they believe will best serve their interests and visions for the country.

Mellon’s memoir, “panam.captain,” expected to be published by Skyhorse Publishing, will provide insights into his experiences as chairman of Pan Am Systems Inc. This publication will likely offer a deeper understanding of Mellon’s business acumen and his perspectives on industry and transportation. His leadership at Pan Am Systems has been a significant part of his career, and this memoir could shed light on the principles that guide his business and political decisions.

Overall, the donations from Mellon and Bloomberg to their respective political causes reflect a broader trend of billionaires using their wealth to influence American politics. The substantial contributions from these individuals underscore the critical role of money in modern election campaigns. These donations not only support the candidates but also shape the political discourse and strategies leading up to the 2024 election.

As the election approaches, the financial backing from major donors like Mellon and Bloomberg will play a crucial role in determining the resources and reach of each campaign. Their support highlights the intersection of wealth and politics in the United States, where financial power can significantly impact electoral outcomes. The influence of these billionaires extends beyond their donations, as they bring attention to the candidates and issues they support, swaying public opinion and mobilizing voters.

Timothy Mellon’s $50 million donation to Trump’s campaign and Michael Bloomberg’s $19 million contribution to Biden’s campaign underscore the immense financial stakes in the 2024 presidential election. Mellon’s additional support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. further emphasizes his strategic political investments. These significant contributions from wealthy individuals highlight the critical role of money in shaping the future of American politics. As the campaigns progress, the impact of these donations will become increasingly evident, demonstrating how financial power can drive political change in the United States.

Supreme Court Upholds Gun Ban for Domestic Abusers, Reinforces Federal Regulations

The Supreme Court upheld a federal law on Friday that prevents domestic abusers from owning guns, dismissing an argument from gun rights advocates that the law infringes on the Second Amendment. The 8-1 decision addressed one of the most scrutinized cases, narrowing the impact of a significant ruling from two years ago that led to numerous challenges against various gun laws nationwide.

This decision, which united most conservative and liberal justices, is likely to support similar federal gun regulations that have been contested since the Supreme Court’s substantial expansion of gun rights in 2022, particularly in cases where the defendant poses a danger. The 2022 ruling had created confusion among lower court judges dealing with Second Amendment cases.

Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, stated that the court found it straightforward to agree that individuals who pose a threat can be denied access to firearms. “Our tradition of firearm regulation allows the government to disarm individuals who present a credible threat to the physical safety of others,” Roberts wrote.

Roberts countered the notion that the court’s decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen had forced lower courts to overturn any gun law lacking a historical precedent. He noted that some lower courts had “misunderstood the methodology of our recent Second Amendment cases.”

“The court’s ruling today leaves intact a specific federal criminal prohibition on gun possession by those subject to domestic violence-related restraining orders,” stated Steve Vladeck, CNN Supreme Court analyst and professor at the University of Texas School of Law. However, he cautioned, “there are dozens of other federal and state gun regulations that have been challenged since the court’s 2022 ruling in the Bruen case. The harder cases, like whether Congress can prohibit all felons, or all drug offenders, from possessing firearms, are still to come.”

Several such cases are pending at the Supreme Court and may be addressed soon. Justice Clarence Thomas, who authored the majority opinion in Bruen, dissented alone on Friday. “The court and government do not point to a single historical law revoking a citizen’s Second Amendment right based on possible interpersonal violence,” Thomas wrote, warning that the decision risks infringing on broader Second Amendment rights.

The case involved a 1994 law that prohibits individuals under domestic violence restraining orders from possessing guns. Zackey Rahimi, a Texas man, was convicted under this law following a series of shootings, including an incident where he fired into the air at a Whataburger after a friend’s credit card was declined.

Rahimi’s attorneys argued that the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision invalidated the law on domestic violence orders, as the founding generation did not restrict gun possession for such reasons. The New Orleans-based 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals supported this view, finding the gun ban for individuals in domestic disputes to be historically unprecedented.

However, the Biden administration and domestic violence advocacy groups highlighted historical laws that prevented dangerous individuals from owning guns, suggesting such regulations could meet the court’s historical test. Victim advocacy groups pointed out that women subjected to domestic abuse are five times more likely to be killed if a gun is present in the home.

President Joe Biden praised the ruling, stating, “As a result of today’s ruling, survivors of domestic violence and their families will still be able to count on critical protections, just as they have for the past three decades.” Douglas Letter, chief legal officer of the gun control group Brady, called the decision an “important victory for gun violence and domestic violence prevention.”

Randy Kozuch, executive director of the NRA Institute for Legislative Action, downplayed the ruling’s significance. “The Supreme Court’s narrow opinion offers no endorsement of red flag laws or of the dozens of other unconstitutional laws that the NRA is challenging across the country that burden the right of peaceable Americans to keep and bear arms,” Kozuch said, emphasizing that the ruling only disarmed individuals deemed dangerous after judicial review.

During oral arguments in November, a majority of justices seemed inclined to uphold the law but suggested they might do so narrowly, given that related legal challenges, including whether non-violent felons can be barred from gun ownership, are queued for the court’s review. One such prohibition concerns President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, who was convicted of violating a law that bans gun possession by users of controlled substances. Hunter Biden is expected to appeal.

By upholding the law, the decision favored prosecutors in this matter but did not address the broader issue of whether other federal gun prohibitions would stand. Last year, the 5th Circuit ruled that the prohibition on drug users was unconstitutional.

Gun control advocates and domestic violence victims groups welcomed the ruling. “This is a huge victory for survivors and it WILL save lives,” March for Our Lives stated on social media. Shannon Watts, founder of Moms Demand Action, argued the case shouldn’t have been considered by the Supreme Court, claiming it shows the extremity of the current court.

Research cited by advocates indicates the risk of homicide increases by 500% if a gun is present in a domestic violence scenario. Amy Sánchez, CEO of the Battered Women’s Justice Project, expressed relief, stating that upholding the firearm restriction ensures protective measures remain effective and survivors are not at greater risk.

Ruth Glenn, president of Survivor Justice Action, commented that the ruling highlights ongoing work needed to strengthen and enforce protection orders. “We must vote. From my perspective and the perspective of this organization, elections matter. The survivors block is strong,” Glenn said, stressing the importance of political engagement.

Despite the ruling, advocates noted potential future challenges in the post-Bruen landscape. Nel-Sylvia Guzman, deputy director of Safe Sisters Circle, remarked that proponents of gun rights view the Bruen decision as a blanket permission to remove any restrictions on gun ownership.

Justice Samuel Alito was absent for the second day in a row as the Supreme Court issued opinions. The court has not addressed inquiries about his absence.

Trump Proposes Automatic Green Cards for US College Graduates, Departing from Previous Immigration Stance

Former President Donald Trump recently proposed granting green cards automatically to foreign nationals who graduate from US colleges, marking a significant departure from his previous stance on immigration. This suggestion stands in stark contrast to his well-known efforts to curb both legal and illegal immigration while he was in office and opposes his often-inflammatory anti-immigrant rhetoric seen on the campaign trail.

In a statement on “The All-In Podcast,” which aired on Thursday, Trump elaborated, “What I want to do, and what I will do, is you graduate from a college, I think you should get automatically, as part of your diploma, a green card to be able to stay in this country.” He continued, “And that includes junior colleges too. Anybody graduates from a college — you go in there for two years or four years. If you graduate, or you get a doctorate degree from a college, you should be able to stay in this country.”

Trump’s comments came during a discussion with the podcast’s hosts, including prominent tech venture capitalists David Sacks and Chamath Palihapitiya, who recently hosted a fundraiser for Trump in San Francisco. The former president was responding to a query from another host, investor Jason Calacanis, who asked, “Can you please promise us you will give us more ability to import the best and brightest from around the world to America?”

Addressing concerns about potential security risks, Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt clarified that graduates would undergo stringent screening. “He believes, only after such vetting has taken place, we ought to keep the most skilled graduates who can make significant contributions to America. This would only apply to the most thoroughly vetted college graduates who would never undercut American wages or workers,” Leavitt said in a statement to CNN. She further emphasized that the screening process would “exclude all communists, radical Islamists, Hamas supporters, America haters and public charges.”

Immigration remains a central focus of Trump’s 2024 presidential bid. He has promised to execute “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” using the issue to criticize President Joe Biden’s leadership. Trump’s latest comments follow Biden’s recent executive action allowing certain undocumented spouses and children of US citizens to apply for lawful permanent residency without leaving the country. This move, intended to appeal to Latino voters in battleground states, came after a more restrictive measure earlier this month to limit asylum processing at the US southern border.

On the podcast, Trump lamented the loss of foreign graduates from top US colleges who cannot start companies in the US and instead establish their businesses in countries like India or China. He remarked, “You need a pool of people to work for your companies and they have to be smart people. … You need brilliant people and we force the brilliant people, the people that graduate from college, the people that are number one in their class from the best colleges. You have to be able to recruit these people and keep the people.”

These remarks are notably different from Trump’s efforts to limit immigration during his presidency. His administration targeted visa programs that tech companies use to bring in skilled workers and directed federal agencies to follow a “Buy American, Hire American” strategy, promoting the hiring of American workers. Trump also attempted to restrict refugee resettlement and implemented a temporary travel ban from seven Muslim-majority countries.

During his current presidential campaign, Trump often incites fear about undocumented migrants, claiming without evidence that the majority are violent criminals, and frequently criticizing Biden’s immigration policies. His language has drawn strong reactions, especially his statement that undocumented immigrants were “poisoning the blood of our country.”

Despite his recent comments, Trump’s stance on foreign graduates is not entirely new. When he ran for president in 2015, he expressed support for providing a pathway to citizenship for some foreign nationals graduating from US colleges. In an interview with Time magazine, he said, “I also want people of great talent to come to this country, to Silicon Valley for engineers. If you go to Harvard and you graduate No. 1 in your class, and you’re from China, they send you home, you can’t get back into the country. So you end up working for companies in China and fighting us.”

Trump’s proposal to automatically grant green cards to college graduates represents a significant shift from his previous policies and rhetoric. While he maintains a hardline stance on immigration, his acknowledgment of the need to retain skilled graduates indicates a more nuanced approach. His campaign’s emphasis on thorough vetting suggests an attempt to balance national security concerns with the economic benefits of retaining top talent.

The suggestion to offer green cards as part of a diploma package could appeal to tech industry leaders and businesses seeking skilled workers. It highlights the economic rationale behind retaining educated individuals who can contribute to innovation and competitiveness. However, the proposal also raises questions about how it will be implemented and the potential impact on American workers.

As Trump continues his campaign, his evolving views on immigration will likely remain a focal point of debate. His proposal underscores the complexity of immigration policy and the challenges of balancing security, economic needs, and humanitarian considerations. Whether this shift will resonate with voters or lead to tangible policy changes remains to be seen. Nonetheless, Trump’s comments mark a notable departure from his earlier positions and add a new dimension to the ongoing discussion about immigration in the United States.

Neera Tanden Highlights Indian Diaspora’s Crucial Role in Strengthening India-US Relations at Leadership Summit

Neera Tanden, an Indian-American and the domestic policy advisor to President Joe Biden, emphasized the significant role the Indian diaspora has played in strengthening the India-US relationship. Speaking at the 7th Annual Leadership Summit in Washington, hosted by the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF), she highlighted how personal connections between the two countries have been crucial, even during times of tension. “Even in past moments where there have been fraught tensions between the United States and India, or suspicion or concern, it’s the people — the people of both countries who have helped build the relationship,” Tanden stated. She noted that many Indians have family in the US, shaping their perception of America and fostering a deep connection. “Many Indians I know have family and relatives in the United States that have helped shape the vision that they have of the US. There’s just a deep connection to how India perceives the US, through how the US treats Indians. That is fundamentally important as we make progress,” she added.

The summit, held on June 17, featured prominent figures including USISPF chairman John Chambers, USISPF president Mukesh Aghi, and senators Steve Dains and Dan Sullivan. Chambers shared a personal story about his 85-year-old father’s life being saved by an Indian doctor, expressing profound gratitude for the significant contributions of Indian doctors in the US. “I’m very, very thankful for that, to have more doctors coming from India than any other country, grateful for what they do, not only their incredible expertise, but also their compassion,” he said.

Senator Dan Sullivan emphasized the vital role of the Indian-American community in bolstering the strategic partnership between India and the US. “The Indian-American community is going to be a key source of continuing to drive the strategic relationship between the United States and India even closer,” Sullivan said. Senator Steve Dains highlighted the unique human capital in both nations, which underpins their success and innovation. “The human capital is the most important capital of any nation. The fact is there’s incredible human talent in India and the United States,” Dains remarked. He praised the shared values of democracy and rule of law that foster a robust innovation ecosystem, stating, “We have the rule of law. We share the common values of democracy. That is what allows the innovation ecosystem to long-term win and allows us to succeed.”

Henry R. Kravis, the founder and co-executive chairman of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Co., was honored with the 2024 Global Leadership Award at the summit. Mukesh Aghi praised Kravis’s contributions, noting that his firm has evolved significantly, impacting economic diplomacy. “I think that all of these have had a massive impact on economic diplomacy as it goes around,” Aghi said. Under Kravis’s leadership, the firm has become one of the largest investors in India, investing over $11 billion in the past two decades across various sectors, creating numerous jobs and contributing to the Indian economy’s growth.

Kravis described the India-US relationship as “multidimensional,” highlighting shared values of democracy and significant Indian presence in the US. “If you think about our values and India’s values, we believe very strongly in democracy,” he said. He noted the large number of Indian Americans and students in the US, stating, “There are five million plus Indian Americans today. There are 270,000 students with visas in the United States. Last year alone, I think, was a record number of Indians looking for visas to come to the US.” Kravis pointed to the numerous opportunities in India, praising the country’s educated workforce, young population, and significant internet usage. He also commended the entrepreneurial talent in India. “There have been so many good things that PM Modi has been able to do, that have been absolutely fantastic for the average person,” Kravis said.

During the summit, Mukesh Aghi recalled President Biden’s remarks on the importance of the US-India relationship, calling it the most consequential of the 21st century. Aghi highlighted the extensive agreements made during the state visit last year, mentioning the ongoing discussions by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and his team in India about the iCET principles. “And what we are seeing in the state visit we had last year, over 170-plus different agreements were initiated,” Aghi said. He stressed that the US-India relationship extends beyond technology to encompass geopolitics, economic opportunities, and people-to-people connections. “I think it’s important that this [US-India] relationship is defined not just purely on technology, it’s defined on geopolitics, it’s defined on economic opportunity, but more importantly, defined on people to people,” he concluded.

The 7th Annual Leadership Summit underscored the deep-rooted and multifaceted ties between India and the US, driven significantly by the Indian diaspora. The summit highlighted the contributions of Indian professionals in the US, the shared democratic values, and the strategic importance of the bilateral relationship, which extends beyond economic and technological collaboration to include significant human and cultural connections.

All the Presidents in Age Order

The ages of U.S. Presidents have varied significantly over the years, changing with voting demographics and shifting societal attitudes toward age. Younger presidential candidates have been seen as symbols of change and energy, appealing to young voters or people seeking a fresh perspective. Older candidates have often brought decades of experience and a sense of maturity. Here is a full list of the ages of the U.S. Presidents at the time of their inauguration, listed from oldest to youngest, spanning an almost 40-year age difference, from 42 to 78.

Over 70

When 46th President Joe Biden was sworn in on January 20, 2021, he became the oldest U.S. President to date, at 78 years and 61 days old. Just four years prior, the second-oldest President, Donald Trump, was sworn in at 70 years and 220 days old. He was about 15 years older than the overall average presidential age of 55. Biden’s term punctuated a trend of increasingly older Presidents: The average age of Presidents elected between 1875 and 1899 was 53, whereas the average age between the late 1990s and today is 63. When the Founding Fathers signed the Constitution in 1787, they set 35 years as the minimum age to run for President; at the time, it was seen as a mature age due to lower life expectancy in the 1700s. Meanwhile, the oldest national leader in the world today is Cameroon’s President Paul Biya, at 91. To date, just two U.S. Presidents have been over 70 years old when inaugurated.

– Joe Biden (46th President) — 78 years, 61 days
– Donald J. Trump (45th President) — 70 years, 220 days

Over 60

More than 20% of U.S. Presidents were elected while in their 60s. Ronald Reagan, who was 69 at his first inauguration in 1981, faced public scrutiny for his age during both election campaigns, something that had not commonly been seen up until then. The concerns didn’t seem to matter much: Reagan went on to serve two terms and completed his presidency just shy of 78 years old. The shortest-serving U.S. President, William Henry Harrison, was just over 68 years old when he assumed office in 1841, but his term was cut short just a month later when he died of what is now believed to have been typhoid. Harrison was, at the time, the oldest President to serve in the Oval Office, and he held that record for 140 years until Reagan was elected. Of the first 10 American Presidents, just three were over 60; of the most recent 10, half were over 60. Here are the 10 U.S. Presidents who were in their 60s when they were inaugurated.

– Ronald Reagan (40th President) — 69 years, 348 days
– William Henry Harrison (9th President) — 68 years, 23 days
– James Buchanan (15th President) — 65 years, 315 days
– George H.W. Bush (41st President) — 64 years, 222 days
– Zachary Taylor (12th President) — 64 years, 100 days
– Dwight D. Eisenhower (34th President) — 62 years, 98 days
– Andrew Jackson (7th President) — 61 years, 354 days
– John Adams (2nd President) — 61 years, 125 days
– Gerald R. Ford (38th President) — 61 years, 26 days
– Harry S. Truman (33rd President) — 60 years, 339 days

Over 50

Almost half of Americans surveyed by Pew Research in 2023 said that someone in their 50s was the ideal age for a President. It makes sense, then, that 55 is indeed the average age at inauguration — though only four Presidents were that exact age when sworn into office. They were Benjamin Harrison in 1889; Grover Cleveland, the only President to serve two nonconsecutive terms, at his second inauguration in 1893; Warren G. Harding in 1921; and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1963. George W. Bush, part of one of only two father-son presidential duos, was 54 years old when he was sworn in as the 43rd President in 2001. His father, George H.W. Bush, was 10 years older than that when he was sworn in as the 41st President 12 years earlier in 1989. Of the 25 Presidents inaugurated in their 50s, three also died in their 50s while in office: 29th President William Harding, 25th President William McKinley, and 16th President Abraham Lincoln. Here is the list of Presidents who took office in their 50s.

– James Monroe (5th President) — 58 years, 310 days
– James Madison (4th President) — 57 years, 353 days
– Thomas Jefferson (3rd President) — 57 years, 325 days
– John Quincy Adams (6th President) — 57 years, 236 days
– George Washington (1st President) — 57 years, 68 days
– Andrew Johnson (17th President) — 56 years, 107 days
– Woodrow Wilson (28th President) — 56 years, 66 days
– Richard M. Nixon (37th President) — 56 years, 11 days
– Grover Cleveland (24th President) — 55 years, 351 days
– Benjamin Harrison (23rd President) — 55 years, 196 days
– Warren G. Harding (29th President) — 55 years, 122 days
– Lyndon B. Johnson (36th President) — 55 years, 87 days
– Herbert Hoover (31st President) — 54 years, 206 days
– George W. Bush (43rd President) — 54 years, 198 days
– Rutherford B. Hayes (19th President) — 54 years, 151 days
– Martin Van Buren (8th President) — 54 years, 89 days
– William McKinley (25th President) — 54 years, 34 days
– Jimmy Carter (39th President) — 52 years, 111 days
– Abraham Lincoln (16th President) — 52 years, 20 days
– Chester A. Arthur (21st President) — 51 years, 349 days
– William H. Taft (27th President) — 51 years, 170 days
– Franklin D. Roosevelt (32nd President) — 51 years, 33 days
– Calvin Coolidge (30th President) — 51 years, 29 days
– John Tyler (10th President) — 51 years, 6 days
– Millard Fillmore (13th President) — 50 years, 183 days

Over 40

Despite the minimum age of 35 required for the job, no one in their 30s has ever been elected President of the United States. John F. Kennedy remains the youngest elected President in U.S. history; he was 43 years, 236 days old at his 1961 inauguration. Although Theodore Roosevelt was younger, at 42, when he took office, his presidency was assumed, not voted on, after the assassination of President William McKinley in 1901. Roosevelt remains the youngest person to ever become President. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama both defeated candidates more than 20 years their senior in 1992 and 2008, respectively. Clinton was inaugurated at the age of 46 in 1993 (George H.W. Bush was 68 at the time), and Barack Obama was first inaugurated in 2009 at the age of 47 (his opponent, John McCain, was 72). Here are the nine Presidents inaugurated in their 40s.

– James K. Polk (11th President) — 49 years, 123 days
– James A. Garfield (20th President) — 49 years, 105 days
– Franklin Pierce (14th President) — 48 years, 101 days
– Grover Cleveland (22nd President) — 47 years, 351 days
– Barack Obama (44th President) — 47 years, 169 days
– Ulysses S. Grant (18th President) — 46 years, 311 days
– Bill Clinton (42nd President) — 46 years, 154 days
– John F. Kennedy (35th President) — 43 years, 236 days
– Theodore Roosevelt (26th President) — 42 years, 322 days

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan Visits India to Strengthen Strategic Tech Partnership and Enhance Indo-Pacific Security

As the world’s two oldest and largest democracies, the United States and India share a unique friendship, and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s recent visit aims to strengthen this partnership, creating a safer and more prosperous Indo-Pacific, according to the White House.

Sullivan visited New Delhi from June 17 to 18, marking the first trip to India by a senior official from the Biden administration since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government secured its third term. During his visit, Sullivan met with Prime Minister Modi and his Indian counterpart, Ajit Doval, on Monday.

John Kirby, White House National Security Communications Advisor, highlighted the significance of the visit during his daily news conference on Monday. “As the world’s two oldest and largest democracies, the United States and India share a unique bond of friendship, and Mr. Sullivan’s trip will further deepen the already strong US-India partnership to create a safer and more prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Kirby stated.

In New Delhi, Sullivan will co-chair the US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET), a landmark partnership aimed at expanding strategic cooperation across key technology sectors. These sectors include space, semiconductors, advanced telecommunications, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, biotechnology, and clean energy.

Kirby refrained from commenting on the case of Indian national Nikhil Gupta, who has been accused of being involved in a murder-for-hire plot against Khalistani separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on American soil. Gupta has been extradited to the US from the Czech Republic. “I don’t have more to add on the conversations that Jake’s having. He’s still over there having these conversations. But the main focus of his visit, as I said, was to look for ways to deepen the US-India bilateral relationship, particularly when it comes to emerging technology,” Kirby remarked.

Gupta appeared before a federal court in New York on Monday, where he pleaded not guilty. India has publicly stated that a high-level inquiry is examining the evidence shared by the US regarding the alleged plot to kill Pannun.

Sullivan’s visit underscores the importance of US-India relations, especially in the context of technological advancements and strategic cooperation. The iCET initiative represents a significant step in this direction, aiming to bolster collaboration in critical and emerging technologies that are pivotal for both nations’ security and prosperity.

The partnership between the US and India is built on shared democratic values and a commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific region. Sullivan’s visit is expected to enhance this partnership, fostering greater cooperation in areas that are crucial for global security and economic growth.

The discussions during Sullivan’s visit are likely to cover a wide range of topics, including defense cooperation, trade relations, and regional security issues. Both countries are keen to address common challenges and leverage their strengths to promote stability and development in the Indo-Pacific region.

The US-India relationship has seen significant growth in recent years, with increased collaboration in various fields, including defense, trade, and technology. Sullivan’s visit is seen as a continuation of this positive trend, aiming to further strengthen the ties between the two nations.

In addition to his meetings with Modi and Doval, Sullivan is expected to engage with other Indian officials and business leaders to discuss opportunities for collaboration and investment. The focus will be on identifying areas where the US and India can work together to achieve mutual benefits and address global challenges.

The iCET initiative is a prime example of the strategic cooperation between the US and India, highlighting the importance of technological innovation in driving economic growth and enhancing national security. By working together on critical technologies, both countries can ensure their continued leadership in these fields and contribute to global progress.

Sullivan’s visit also reflects the Biden administration’s commitment to strengthening alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region. The US sees India as a key partner in its efforts to maintain a balance of power and promote stability in the region. The visit aims to reinforce this partnership and explore new avenues for cooperation.

Overall, Sullivan’s visit to India is a significant milestone in the US-India relationship, emphasizing the importance of strategic cooperation in critical and emerging technologies. It is expected to pave the way for deeper collaboration and stronger ties between the two democracies, contributing to a safer and more prosperous Indo-Pacific region.

The discussions and outcomes of Sullivan’s visit will likely shape the future trajectory of US-India relations, with both countries poised to benefit from enhanced cooperation and shared goals. The focus on emerging technologies and strategic sectors underscores the forward-looking nature of the partnership, aimed at addressing contemporary challenges and harnessing new opportunities.

Sullivan’s visit to India marks an important step in the ongoing efforts to deepen the US-India partnership. With a focus on critical and emerging technologies, the visit is expected to yield positive outcomes for both nations, fostering greater cooperation and contributing to regional and global stability. The strong bond of friendship between the US and India continues to serve as a foundation for this partnership, driving progress and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

New York United Church of Christ Condemns Religious Violence in India, Urges Sanctions and Global Solidarity

At its meeting on June 1, 2024, in Binghampton, NY, the New York Conference of the United Church of Christ (UCCNY) unanimously adopted a resolution condemning the violence against religious minorities in India, including Christians and Muslims. This marks the first such resolution by any UCC denomination, coming soon after a similar resolution by the United Methodist General Conference in April 2024.

The resolution begins by highlighting the dire situation in Manipur, where over 40,000 people have been displaced, 250 churches and 1,700 homes destroyed, and 120 people killed due to Hindu nationalist policies endorsed by India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Rev. Dr. Marsha Williams, Conference Minister and Ecumenical Officer, emphasized the importance of addressing the root causes of this suffering, stating, “We want to publicly care for Christians and not only Christians, but other religious minorities who are suffering, and look at the root causes of that suffering in the Indian subcontinent. That should matter to every congregation in New York and around the nation.”

In a show of solidarity, the UCCNY resolved to support organizations like the National Council of the Churches of Christ in the USA (NCC), Federation of Indian American Christian Organizations of North America (FIACONA), Religions for Peace USA, Ecumenical Partners in Outreach, and the United Methodist General Conference. Williams further explained, “This is a call to draw the circle wide. It is our business to care about what happens around the globe and not just close to home. We need to take God out of the box. God is doing far more than what we’re imagining.”

The resolution specifically distinguishes between mainstream Hinduism and Hindutva, the latter being a form of Hindu nationalism which it addresses. It calls for India to be designated as a “country of particular concern” (CPC) due to its systematic, ongoing, and severe violations of religious freedom, as defined by the International Religious Freedom Act (IRFA). Additionally, it condemns the continuous violations of religious freedoms and advocates for the human rights of all religious communities in India.

Further actions outlined in the resolution include urging U.S. representatives and the Biden administration to impose targeted sanctions on Indian government agencies and officials responsible for severe violations of religious freedom, including freezing their assets. The resolution also encourages UCCNY church members to contact their Congressional representatives to bring these violations to the attention of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the Department of State, and the wider society.

Rev. Martha Koenig Stone, speaking on behalf of the UCC’s Commission On Ecumenical and Interfaith Relations, emphasized the necessity of international pressure to effect policy changes that harm vulnerable populations in India. She stated, “It is time to apply international pressure to demand a change in policies that demonize and target vulnerable people in India because we are in relationship with them. Just as we cannot stand for continued violence against Palestinians and reject any form of violence against Jews and Muslims, we must speak alongside others who are speaking for those who are oppressed. That conviction to address unjust policies is at the heart of our Christian faith because we care for the whole planet.”

Rev. Neal Christie, Executive Director of FIACONA, praised the UCC for its stance. “The UCC has taken a courageous step in raising awareness about the harm done by Hindu nationalist ideologies and policies in the U.S. and in India. The UCC has said that religion should not be weaponized. We stand with them in holding members of the U.S. Congress and the Biden Administration accountable for their role in allowing systemic harm to people simply because of the God they worship and the communities they belong to,” Christie said.

Rev. Prabhu Sigamani of the Farmingville UCC and director for the NY Conference, commented on the broader implications of the resolution. “The prosperity of a nation is determined by the well-being of all people, irrespective of religion, caste, creed, gender, and socio-economic status,” Sigamani stated. He added, “A nation can pride itself when its weakest community members are safe and secure, thereby experiencing liberty to the fullest extent without the fear of persecution. The fundamentals of all religions teach us love and forgiveness. Now can be the time for healing. I am urging the leaders to take action to stop the violence. As our prayers are ascending for your safety and peace, we believe that the blessings of Jesus Christ will descend so that there is peace and harmony.”

This resolution from the UCCNY highlights the critical need for global attention to religious freedom violations and the necessity of concerted international efforts to support oppressed religious minorities in India. Through its solidarity with various organizations and its call for political action, the UCCNY aims to foster a more just and peaceful world, reflecting the core values of their faith.

Rep. Ro Khanna Calls for New Generation of Leaders After Biden’s Reelection, Urges Bold Middle East Peace Efforts

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) has expressed his eagerness for a “new generation” of leadership following President Biden’s anticipated reelection. During an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Khanna was asked by Peter Alexander about his potential future presidential aspirations, given his active participation in Biden’s campaign. While Khanna did not confirm any plans to run for president, he emphasized the need for new leaders to emerge after Biden’s second term.

“I am so focused, as is everyone, in trying to get President Biden elected. But I will say this: This country is hungry after that for a new generation. And we’ve got tremendous talent in our party, and there are young people on the other side as well,” Khanna stated.

Khanna further mentioned his anticipation for a new wave of leadership post-Biden’s reelection. “I’m looking forward after President Biden is reelected to a new generation leading this country,” he added.

Earlier in the interview, Khanna acknowledged the difficulty of regaining young voters’ support for Biden, especially in light of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

“Well, the biggest thing we’re running out of time is more people dying. And we have to remember the humanitarian stakes. But, yes, it’s a challenge for our party. Young people want a war to end. But what young people want is a vision, and the president started that with the cease-fire,” he commented.

Khanna suggested that President Biden should adopt a more proactive stance in his second term, advocating for a two-state solution and a peace conference in the Middle East. “I hope he can go further, and he should call for two states. He should say in his second term he’s going to convene a peace conference in the Middle East, recognize a Palestinian state without Hamas, work with Egypt, Saudi Arabia on it,” Khanna proposed.

PM Modi Concludes G7 Summit Visit in Italy, Emphasizes Tech Inclusivity and Holds Key Bilaterals

Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded his one-day visit to Italy on Friday, where he participated in the G7 summit and held bilateral discussions with several global leaders, including British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Pope Francis.

In his address at the Outreach session of the G7 summit, held in Italy’s Apulia region, PM Modi emphasized the need to dismantle monopolies in technology, advocating for its innovative use to build an inclusive society. He stated, “Had a very productive day at the G7 Summit in Apulia. Interacted with world leaders and discussed various subjects. Together, we aim to create impactful solutions that benefit the global community and create a better world for future generations.”

PM Modi specifically addressed the importance of eliminating monopolies in technology, with a strong focus on artificial intelligence. He highlighted India’s proactive stance, noting that it is one of the first countries to develop a national strategy on artificial intelligence.

On the sidelines of the summit, PM Modi engaged in meetings with several world leaders, including US President Joe Biden, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, Pope Francis, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Notably, PM Modi’s meeting with President Macron marked his first official bilateral discussion with an international leader since he commenced his third term as Prime Minister earlier this month.

Apart from India, Italy extended invitations to leaders from 11 developing countries across Africa, South America, and the Indo-Pacific region to participate in the G7 Summit.

DHS Announces New Process to Promote the Unity and Stability of Families

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced actions to promote family unity in the immigration process, consistent with the Biden-Harris Administration’s commitment to keeping families together. This announcement utilizes existing authorities to promote family unity, but only Congress can fix our broken immigration system.

Under current law, noncitizens married to a U.S. citizen may apply for lawful permanent residence through their marriage to a U.S. citizen. However, to apply for lawful permanent residence, many noncitizens must first depart the United States and wait to be processed abroad, resulting in a prolonged, potentially indefinite, period of separation from their U.S. citizen family members and causing tremendous hardship to all concerned. Consequently, these families live in fear and face deep uncertainty about their future.

To address this challenge, DHS will establish a new process to consider, on a case-by-case basis, requests for certain noncitizen spouses of U.S. citizens who have lived in the United States for 10 years or more; do not pose a threat to public safety or national security; are otherwise eligible to apply for adjustment of status; and merit a favorable exercise of discretion. If eligible, these noncitizens will be able to apply for lawful permanent residence without having to leave the United States. DHS estimates that approximately 500,000 noncitizen spouses of U.S. citizens could be eligible to access this process; on average, these noncitizens have resided in the United States for 23 years. Approximately 50,000 children of these spouses also will be eligible for this process. Noncitizens who pose a threat to national security or public safety will not be eligible for this process, as aligned with our immigration enforcement priorities. If a noncitizen poses a threat to national security or public safety, DHS will detain, remove, or refer them to other federal agencies for further vetting, investigation, or prosecution as appropriate.

Today’s actions build on unprecedented steps by the Biden-Harris Administration to strengthen family unity including by implementing family reunification parole processes for nationals of Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Ecuador; updating and modernizing the Cuban and Haitian family reunification parole processes; leading the Family Reunification Task Force to reunify nearly 800 children with their families who were separated; and establishing country-specific parole processes for certain nationals of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela (CHNV) who have a U.S.-based supporter.

Eligibility and Process

To be considered on a case-by-case basis for this process, an individual must:

  • Be present in the United States without admission or parole;
  • Have been continuously present in the United States for at least 10 years as of June 17, 2024; and
  • Have a legally valid marriage to a U.S. citizen as of June 17, 2024.

In addition, individuals must have no disqualifying criminal history or otherwise constitute a threat to national security or public safety and should otherwise merit a favorable exercise of discretion.

Noncitizen children of potential requestors may also be considered for parole under this process if they are physically present in the United States without admission or parole and have a qualifying stepchild relationship to a U.S. citizen as of June 17, 2024.

In order to be considered for parole, an individual will need to file a form with USCIS along with supporting documentation to show they meet the requirements and pay a fee. Further information regarding eligibility and the application process, including a notice in the Federal Register, will be published in the near term. USCIS will reject any filings or individual requests received before the date when the application period begins later this summer.

Upon receipt of a properly filed parole in place request USCIS will determine on a case-by-case basis whether a grant of parole is warranted and whether the applicant merits a favorable exercise of discretion. All requests will take into consideration the potential requestor’s previous immigration history, criminal history, the results of background checks and national security and public safety vetting, and any other relevant information available to or requested by USCIS. USCIS has strong processes in place to identify and address potential fraud, which will be applied here to ensure the integrity of this program.

Other Action

In addition, DHS will join the Department of State in an effort to more efficiently facilitate certain employment-based nonimmigrant visas for eligible individuals, including Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients and undocumented noncitizens, who have graduated from an accredited U.S. institution of higher education. By clarifying and enhancing the existing process, the Department of State’s policy will give U.S. employers increased confidence that they can hire the talent they need, and that they will be able to quickly get to work. DHS will implement the Department of State’s policy update.

Half of U.S. Adults Approve of Trump’s Felony Conviction as Election Nears, AP-NORC Poll Finds

About half of U.S. adults approve of Donald Trump’s recent felony conviction, according to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The survey reveals both potential vulnerabilities and resilience in Trump’s support as he aims to become the first American with a felony record to win the presidency.

With less than five months until Election Day, the poll depicts a nation with firmly entrenched views of the divisive former Republican president. Overall opinions of Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden remain unchanged since Trump’s guilty verdict in his New York hush money trial.

However, the findings also suggest Trump’s conviction is a weakness among disaffected Republicans. While most Americans are aware of the conviction, political independents are less likely to be paying attention and more likely to have a neutral opinion of Trump’s conviction, indicating campaigns may still sway them.

Nancy Hauser, a 74-year-old independent from West Palm Beach, Florida, approves of Trump’s conviction based on the little she followed of the trial. The verdict suggests to her that Trump may engage in criminal activity if back in the White House. “I feel if you’ve been convicted of a crime, especially a felony, a serious crime, how can you run a country?” she said. However, she also has concerns about Biden, especially his age and leadership on the economy and the war in Israel. Biden is 81, while Trump turns 78 on Friday. “I’m not sure who I’m voting for,” Hauser said. “That’s the sad part.”

Overall, U.S. adults are more likely to approve of Trump’s conviction than disapprove, according to a survey of 1,115 adults nationwide conducted over three days beginning a week after the verdict was delivered on May 30, and before Biden’s son Hunter was convicted in a federal gun case on Tuesday. About 3 in 10 somewhat or strongly disapprove of Trump’s conviction, and about 2 in 10 neither approve nor disapprove. Registered voters’ perspectives were similar, with about half saying the conviction was the right choice.

Republicans are less united on the verdict than Democrats. Roughly 6 in 10 Republicans somewhat or strongly disapprove of the conviction, while 15% of Republican adults approve, and about 2 in 10 Republicans neither approve nor disapprove. In contrast, more than 8 in 10 Democrats somewhat or strongly approve.

About half of Americans say the conviction was politically motivated, while a similar share think it was not. Nearly half of Republicans who have an unfavorable view of Trump do not see the conviction as politically motivated, compared with less than 1 in 10 Republicans who have a positive opinion of him.

Overall opinions of Trump have barely changed. About 6 in 10 U.S. adults have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, consistent with an AP-NORC poll from February. Four in 10 have a favorable view of Trump, also largely unchanged since February.

The numbers for Biden are equally poor: 4 in 10 U.S. adults have a favorable view of the Democratic president, while about 6 in 10 have a negative one.

Ron Schwartz, a 59-year-old moderate Republican from Dallas, said Trump was “probably guilty” of the alleged crimes, though he believes politics played a major role in the case. He thinks the charges should not have been felonies, a crime level that blocks those convicted from owning guns or voting in many states. Still, Schwartz plans to vote for Trump, as he did in the past two presidential elections, despite serious concerns about the former president’s character. “I think he’s a disgusting human being,” Schwartz said. “But he has some good policies and good ideas.”

Independents are split on Trump overall: About 4 in 10 have a positive view, while a similar share have a negative view. Nearly half did not express a strong opinion on the conviction, saying they neither approve nor disapprove.

Cassi Carey, a 60-year-old independent from suburban Milwaukee, said the conviction does not reflect well on Trump, though she acknowledges she was not paying close attention to the specifics. “I think Trump is a terrible choice for our country because of his divisiveness,” Carey said. She also lamented Biden’s advanced age, who turns 82 in November. “Someday in my lifetime, I want very much to be able to vote for a candidate and not against a candidate,” she said.

Overall, Americans are more likely to see Trump’s conviction as bad for the nation. About 4 in 10 adults describe it as a bad thing for the country, while about one-third say it was a good thing, and about 2 in 10 say it is neither. Regarding the U.S. democratic system, about 4 in 10 say the conviction is a good thing, with roughly the same share calling it a bad thing.

Trump continues to be overwhelmingly disliked by Democrats: 9 in 10 Democrats have an unfavorable view of him, with roughly 8 in 10 saying their opinion is “very unfavorable.” Democrat Oscar Baza, a 29-year-old Mexican immigrant from Los Angeles, said he approves of the Trump verdict, which he sees as evidence of “the judicial process working as it should.” “I just think it’s really worrisome that he’s on the ballot,” Baza said. “If you’ve been convicted of 34 counts of anything, you probably shouldn’t be leading anything; you should be going to therapy.”

The AP-NORC poll indicates that while Trump’s conviction has polarized opinions further, it has not significantly shifted overall views on him or Biden. Both candidates face challenges with their respective unfavorable ratings, and the upcoming election will likely see efforts to sway the undecided, particularly among independents.

Pope Francis to Hold Key Meetings with Global Leaders at G-7 Summit

Pope Francis is scheduled to meet with leaders from the United States, Ukraine, France, and India during the Group of 7 (G-7) summit in Italy’s Borgo Egnazia, as confirmed by the Vatican on Thursday. This marks the first time a Pope will participate in G-7 discussions, reflecting his engagement with global issues including the implications of artificial intelligence, which he has previously cautioned against.

In a statement outlining his agenda for the summit, the Vatican disclosed that Pope Francis will engage in individual discussions with several world leaders and key figures. According to the Vatican’s announcement, “Francis will have a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden, a fellow Catholic,” underscoring the significance of their shared faith and their potentially influential dialogue. Additionally, he is scheduled to meet privately with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The Vatican’s statement further outlined Pope Francis’s extensive schedule, which includes meetings with a diverse array of global leaders. Among those scheduled are Brazilian former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kenyan Deputy President William Ruto, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, and Kristalina Georgieva, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

This initiative highlights Pope Francis’s proactive approach in engaging with international leaders to discuss pressing global issues, particularly focusing on the impact of technological advancements such as artificial intelligence. His participation in the G-7 summit underscores the Vatican’s commitment to contributing to discussions on matters crucial to global governance and societal well-being.

Swing States to Decide 2024 Presidential Election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in Focus

In this year’s U.S. presidential election, about 240 million people are eligible to vote, but the outcome is expected to hinge on a small number of swing states. Experts identify Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as the crucial battlegrounds that could determine whether Democratic President Joe Biden or his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, wins the White House.

Both parties are concentrating their efforts on these states to sway undecided voters. Here’s an in-depth look at each of these pivotal states:

Arizona

In 2020, Biden won Arizona, marking the first time since the 1990s that the state supported a Democratic presidential candidate. The state, which shares a long border with Mexico, has been central to the national immigration debate. During Biden’s tenure, border crossings hit record highs, creating significant political challenges. Although crossings have decreased recently, Biden has adopted a tougher stance, planning border shutdowns during surges.

Trump has capitalized on Biden’s immigration record, promising to conduct “the largest deportation operation” in U.S. history if re-elected. Arizona also became a flashpoint over abortion rights after state Republicans attempted to revive a near-total abortion ban from 160 years ago. The issue gained national prominence after the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn the constitutional right to abortion.

Georgia

Georgia is one of the states where Trump-backed Republicans tried to overturn Biden’s 2020 victory. Trump, along with 18 others, faces charges of conspiring to overturn his narrow loss in the state, although he denies any wrongdoing. This legal battle adds complexity to his campaign, particularly after his hush-money trial ended in a guilty verdict.

Georgia has a significant African-American population, which played a crucial role in Biden’s 2020 win. However, there is growing disillusionment among Black voters, who feel insufficient progress has been made on racial justice and economic issues. Whether this impacts voter turnout in 2024 remains to be seen.

Michigan

Michigan, a key state in the last two elections, has become a symbol of the backlash against Biden’s support for Israel during its conflict with Gaza. During the state’s Democratic primary, over 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option, influenced by activists advocating for a U.S. ceasefire in Gaza and a halt to military aid to Israel. Michigan’s large Arab-American community’s support for Biden is now uncertain.

Trump has underscored Michigan’s importance for his path to victory, urging Israel to expedite its campaign against Hamas in Gaza. The state’s electoral significance remains high as both parties vie for support in this crucial region.

Nevada

Nevada, traditionally a Democratic stronghold in recent elections, shows signs of shifting towards the Republicans. Polling averages from 538 indicate Trump currently leads Biden in the state. Both candidates are focusing on winning over Nevada’s substantial Latino population.

Despite national economic growth under Biden, Nevada’s post-COVID recovery has lagged, with the state posting the highest unemployment rate in the country at 5.1%. Trump’s campaign promises a return to lower taxes and deregulation, appealing to voters dissatisfied with the current economic situation.

Pennsylvania

Like many Americans, Pennsylvanians are grappling with inflation-driven cost-of-living increases, particularly in grocery prices, which have risen faster there than in any other state. Erie, a bellwether county, exemplifies these struggles, with one in eight residents facing food insecurity.

Pennsylvania was crucial in Biden’s 2020 victory, buoyed by his personal connection to Scranton, a working-class city. However, high inflation could jeopardize his support, as polls indicate voters have a negative view of the economy. Trump has attacked Biden on this issue, but he also faces competition from Republican primary rival Nikki Haley, who performed well in Pennsylvania.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s razor-thin margins in both 2016 and 2020 underscore its status as a key battleground. Third-party candidates could influence the outcome in such closely contested states. Polls suggest support for independents like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who aims to get on the ballot in Wisconsin and other states, might affect the vote shares of both major candidates.

Trump has emphasized Wisconsin’s importance, saying, “if we win Wisconsin, we win the whole thing.” The state will host the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, highlighting its strategic significance. Biden, meanwhile, touts new investments like a Microsoft data center as evidence of his job-creating efforts, contrasting his record with Trump’s unfulfilled promises.

The fate of the 2024 presidential election hinges on a handful of swing states. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will likely determine the next occupant of the White House. Both Biden and Trump face unique challenges and opportunities in these critical battlegrounds, making their campaigns’ efforts to win over undecided and disillusioned voters crucial for victory.

Nate Silver Suggests Biden Should Consider Dropping Out of 2024 Race Amidst Record Low Approval Ratings

Nate Silver, the well-known election analyst and founder of “FiveThirtyEight,” suggested on Monday that President Biden’s recent disapproval ratings might prompt the Democratic frontrunner to reconsider his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election.

“But Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%) at 538 yesterday. Dropping out would be a big risk. But there’s some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet? I don’t know. But it’s more than fair to ask,” Silver posted on Monday.

Silver argued that Democrats might have had a stronger position if Biden had decided against running for a second term earlier. This decision could have allowed for a more competitive primary process among various popular Democrats nationwide.

“What’s clearer IMO is that Democrats would have been better served if Biden had decided a year ago not to seek a second term, which would have allowed them to have some semblance of a primary process and give voters a say among the many popular Democrats across the country,” he wrote.

Highlighting the unique nature of the current political situation, Silver noted the improbability of an 81-year-old president seeking re-election amidst widespread concerns about his age and enduring high inflation.

“If I’d told you 10 years ago a president would seek re-election at 81 despite a supermajority of Americans having concerns about his age, and then we’d hit 8% inflation for 2 years, you wouldn’t be surprised he was an underdog for reelection. You’d be surprised it was even close!,” he said.

Silver also responded to critics who suggested he should focus more on former President Trump. He clarified that he also believes Trump should exit the race, noting the significant challenges Biden faces in a head-to-head comparison.

“‘Trump should drop out too!’ is such [a] weird dunk on people who are pointing out that Biden has big challenges. Yes, Trump should drop out! I agree! Biden would lose by 7 points [against a different candidate], but I agree, the Republican Party and the country would be better served by a different nominee.” Silver wrote.

Despite these concerns, Biden and some of his top advisors reportedly do not believe the negative poll numbers.

A recent Fox News Poll indicates a tight race between Trump and Biden in Virginia, a state Biden won by a significant margin in 2020.

The poll, released last Thursday, shows both Biden and Trump with 48% each in a head-to-head matchup in the Old Dominion State.

Global Poll Shows Higher Confidence in Biden Over Trump Despite Waning Faith in U.S. Democracy

People in 34 countries around the globe have expressed greater confidence in President Joe Biden than in his opponent, former President Donald Trump, according to a Pew Research Center poll released Tuesday. Despite this, there is growing skepticism about whether U.S. democracy serves as a suitable model for the rest of the world.

The survey found that a median of 43% in the surveyed nations trust Biden to handle world affairs appropriately, compared to 28% for Trump. Biden received more favorable assessments than Trump in 24 countries, while Trump led in Hungary and Tunisia. The two men were effectively tied in eight other countries.

The increased confidence in Biden comes amid a decline in global faith in U.S. democracy. While a median of 54% across the 34 countries polled view the U.S. positively, a median of four in ten believe that U.S. democracy was once a good example for other nations but no longer is. Only a median of 21% believe U.S. democracy remains a good example, with an almost equal share, 22%, saying it never has been. Since the spring of 2021, the only other time Pew asked this question, the share of those who believe U.S. democracy is a good example has fallen in eight countries, mostly in Europe.

“People just don’t see the U.S. political system as functioning very well,” said Richard Wike, director of global attitudes research for Pew. “People see the U.S. as really divided along partisan lines.”

There is a far smaller global divide between Trump and Biden. Confidence in Biden to do the right thing in world affairs has decreased since his first year in office but remains significantly higher than that of Trump, who had relatively low global ratings during his presidency. Biden’s lowest confidence ratings were for his handling of the Israel-Hamas war, with a median of 57% expressing no confidence in his approach.

A median of 39% in the surveyed countries approved of Biden’s handling of the war in Ukraine, with his highest ratings in European nations. Approximately four in ten were confident in his handling of China.

Of the five leaders rated in the survey, French President Emmanuel Macron had the highest level of confidence, just ahead of Biden, while Russian President Vladimir Putin received the lowest.

Confidence in Biden has waned in countries such as South Africa, Israel, and the U.K., but it remains consistently higher than that in Trump. Trump’s lowest ratings were in Europe, where more than eight in ten adults in France, Germany, and Sweden expressed no confidence in him. He also received poor ratings in Latin America.

Africa, which Wike noted tends to have positive views of U.S. presidents, registered some of Trump’s best numbers. Even in the two countries where Trump had higher confidence ratings than Biden, the numbers were still low. In Tunisia, for instance, only 17% expressed confidence in Trump.

Hungary is the other country where adults reported higher confidence in Trump than Biden, but the endorsement was tepid. Trump has embraced Hungary and its autocratic prime minister, Viktor Orbán, yet only 37% of Hungarians expressed confidence in Trump, compared to 24% for Biden.

The median confidence in Trump’s ability to do the right thing in world affairs was only slightly higher across the 34 countries than it was for Chinese President Xi Jinping.

PM Modi to Attend G7 Summit in Italy Amid Global Tensions: Key Leaders and Agenda

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his inaugural overseas visit since assuming office for a third consecutive term, is set to participate in the annual summit of the G7 advanced economies in Italy this week. The summit, slated from June 13 to 15, is expected to grapple with pressing global issues such as the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the intensifying war in Ukraine. The venue for this high-profile gathering is the lavish resort town of Borgo Egnazia in Italy’s Apulia region.

The summit will see the participation of prominent world leaders including US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Notably, there is a scheduled meeting to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Modi’s travel itinerary, as per sources familiar with the matter, indicates his departure for Italy on June 13, with a return slated for late June 14. This marks Modi’s premier foreign visit since commencing his third term as prime minister. While the formal announcement of Modi’s trip to Italy is pending, sources suggest he will be accompanied by a high-level delegation comprising NSA Ajit Doval, Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra, and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. Among the slated bilateral engagements, the prime minister is set to meet with Giorgia Meloni, the prime minister of Italy.

It’s noteworthy that Modi had attended the previous G7 summit in Hiroshima last May. Ahead of the summit, he engaged in discussions with Zelenskyy and various other global leaders. The G7, consisting of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Germany, Canada, and Japan, is pivotal in shaping global agendas. Italy’s current presidency of the G7 entails hosting the summit.

Under Italy’s presidency, there is a clear emphasis on upholding the rules-based international order. Italy contends that Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine undermines these foundational principles, leading to escalating instability and crises worldwide. Additionally, the G7 aims to accord significant attention to the Middle East conflict due to its far-reaching global ramifications.

Originally established as the G8 in 1997, with Russia included, the bloc saw an expansion until 2013. However, Russia’s involvement was suspended in 2014 following its annexation of Crimea. As per tradition, the host country extends invitations to various countries and international organizations for summit participation.

Italy, besides India, has invited leaders from 11 developing nations across Africa, South America, and the Indo-Pacific region. Interestingly, despite not being a G7 member, the European Union participates in the annual summit, indicative of the event’s global significance.

UN Security Council Backs US-Led Ceasefire Plan for Gaza, Urges Hamas to Agree

The United Nations Security Council has endorsed a U.S. resolution supporting a ceasefire plan for the conflict in Gaza. The resolution outlines conditions for a comprehensive ceasefire, the release of hostages held by Hamas, the return of deceased hostages’ remains, and an exchange of Palestinian prisoners. The resolution passed with 14 out of 15 Security Council members voting in favor; Russia abstained.

The resolution acknowledges Israel’s acceptance of the ceasefire plan and urges Hamas to agree as well. This aligns the Security Council with several governments and the G7 group of wealthy nations in backing the three-part plan presented by President Joe Biden on May 31. Biden initially described it as an Israeli ceasefire proposal.

Israel’s proposal, submitted to the U.S. and mediators Qatar and Egypt, is reportedly more detailed than Biden’s summary. The full content remains undisclosed, and it is uncertain if it differs from what Biden presented. Israel’s three-man war cabinet agreed to the proposal, but it has not been shared with the broader government, where some far-right ministers have already voiced opposition.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not explicitly stated his support for Biden’s version of the plan. The resolution’s approval came soon after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with regional leaders, including Netanyahu, to garner support for the ceasefire. Before the UN vote, Blinken urged regional leaders to pressure Hamas to accept the ceasefire, stating, “If you want a ceasefire, press Hamas to say yes.”

Hamas has indicated support for parts of the plan and welcomed the Security Council resolution in a statement on Monday. They emphasized their demand for a permanent ceasefire, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the exchange of Palestinian prisoners. Hamas is prepared to cooperate with mediators and engage in “indirect negotiations,” although its political leadership in Doha has not formally responded to the proposal, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.

The proposal’s ultimate goal includes a significant reconstruction plan for Gaza, which has suffered extensive destruction. The first phase involves a hostage-prisoner swap and a short-term ceasefire. The second phase aims for a “permanent end to hostilities” and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, as outlined in the U.S. draft resolution. The third phase focuses on Gaza’s long-term outlook and initiates a multi-year reconstruction plan.

The resolution follows President Biden’s announcement ten days prior that Israel had agreed to the plan. While Biden framed the peace initiative as Israeli, the U.S. is aware of Israel’s internal political challenges. Some far-right ministers threaten to collapse the government if the deal progresses, reflecting the fractious nature of Israel’s ruling coalition. Former general and centrist Benny Gantz’s resignation from the war cabinet on Sunday exacerbates this instability.

Biden’s account on X (formerly Twitter) highlighted the resolution’s passage, stating, “Hamas says it wants a ceasefire. This deal is an opportunity to prove they mean it.” U.S. Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, remarked, “Today we voted for peace.” UK Ambassador Barbara Woodward described the Gaza situation as “catastrophic” and urged all parties to seize this opportunity for lasting peace and stability. UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron also welcomed the resolution.

Russia abstained, with its UN ambassador Vassily Nebenzia questioning the clarity of the deal and Israel’s true commitment to ending its military operation in Gaza. Nebenzia asked, “Given the many statements from Israel on the extension of the war until Hamas is completely defeated… what specifically has Israel agreed to?” Despite voting in favor, China also expressed concerns about the resolution’s effectiveness, referencing previous UN resolutions on the conflict that were not implemented.

On March 25, the UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for a ceasefire. The U.S. had previously vetoed similar measures, arguing that such actions would hinder ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas. However, the U.S. abstained from the March resolution rather than vetoing it. Netanyahu criticized the U.S. at that time for “abandoning” its stance linking a ceasefire to the release of hostages.

The conflict began when Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, resulting in approximately 1,200 deaths and the capture of about 251 hostages. According to the Hamas-run health ministry, Gaza’s death toll has exceeded 37,000 since Israel’s retaliatory response.

The Security Council’s resolution and the broader international support for the ceasefire plan reflect a significant diplomatic effort to address the ongoing conflict and pave the way for lasting peace and reconstruction in Gaza.

Global Tensions and Political Shifts: Israel’s Hostage Rescue, Macron Dissolves Parliament, Trump Faces Probation Interview, Peltier’s Last Parole Bid, and Hair Loss Drug Concerns

Rescued Hostages, But the War Continues

Joy in Israel over the successful rescue of four hostages has quickly faded as the harsh realities of the ongoing nine-month war in Gaza persist. Despite the operation’s success, deep-seated divisions remain largely unchanged. The rescue operation on Saturday saw the liberation of four hostages, including Noa Argamani, who was abducted on October 7 during the Nova music festival—a moment captured on video. This success, however, came at a heavy cost. Gaza’s Health Ministry reported on Sunday that at least 270 Palestinians were killed and another 700 were injured, making it one of the bloodiest days in the conflict. Many more are believed to be buried under rubble.

In a significant political development, Benny Gantz announced his resignation from Israel’s war Cabinet. Gantz, a major political rival of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stated his resignation was due to the failure to establish a postwar plan for Gaza. In a televised address, Gantz accused Netanyahu of obstructing Israel’s path to “a real victory” and apologized to the families of the hostages, admitting, “we failed” to bring most of them home.

Macron Dissolves French Parliament

In a surprising political move, President Emmanuel Macron has decided to dissolve the lower house of France’s parliament, leaving the country’s political fate in the hands of voters. This decision follows a significant defeat for his party at the hands of the far right in the European Union’s parliamentary elections on Saturday. Marine Le Pen’s far-right, anti-immigration National Rally party outperformed Macron’s centrist, pro-European Renaissance party, according to projections by French opinion poll institutes.

Macron’s decision to call for new elections is a high-risk gamble. If an opposition party secures a majority in parliament, it could lead to a challenging cohabitation scenario, where Macron would have to appoint a prime minister from an opposing party, potentially leading to significant policy conflicts. Macron’s current term as president still has three years remaining. The legislative elections are scheduled to take place in two rounds on June 30 and July 7.

Trump to Attend Probation Interview

Former President Donald Trump is set to participate in a virtual interview with a New York City probation officer today, a requirement following his guilty verdict in the hush money trial. Sources familiar with the situation said that Trump will conduct the interview from his Mar-a-Lago residence, with his attorney Todd Blanche present, using a specially secured virtual network.

Legal experts have noted the unusual nature of a probation interview conducted via video conference, yet acknowledged that having a former president visit a probation office in person would also be unprecedented. The interview could cover various topics related to Trump’s trial and sentencing.

Leonard Peltier’s Last Chance for Parole

Native American activist Leonard Peltier, who has consistently maintained his innocence in the murders of two FBI agents nearly 50 years ago, is scheduled for a full parole hearing today. This is Peltier’s first hearing in 15 years and is considered by his supporters to be his last chance for release. At 79 years old, Peltier’s age, declining health, and nonviolent behavior in prison are being emphasized by his attorney as reasons to grant parole.

Peltier was involved in a 1975 gunfight on the Pine Ridge Reservation in South Dakota, which resulted in the deaths of two FBI agents. His case has been the subject of extensive scrutiny regarding the investigation and trial procedures. Despite these concerns, the FBI remains firm in its opposition to Peltier’s release.

Surge in Hair Loss Medication Usage and Concerns

An increasing number of young men are turning to medication to prevent hair loss, sparking concerns about potential side effects. An NBC News report revealed that finasteride prescriptions have nearly tripled in the U.S. over the past seven years. A New York City dermatologist mentioned, “It’s like water in my clinic. I’m prescribing it all the time.”

While doctors generally consider the daily pill safe, it must be taken continuously to maintain its effects. Controversy surrounds the drug due to reports of impotence and other side effects that may persist even after discontinuing the medication. This has led to ongoing debates about the drug’s safety and the need for awareness about its potential risks.

Political Briefs

Abortion Rights:The Supreme Court is poised to rule on two major abortion cases this month, the first since the overturning of Roe v. Wade. One case involves the abortion pill mifepristone, and the other pertains to a near-total ban on abortion in Idaho. Supreme Court reporter Lawrence Hurley discusses the implications of these rulings.

Biden in France:During his visit to France, President Joe Biden sought to draw a stark contrast with his Republican rival, Donald Trump, without mentioning him by name. Biden’s five-day trip culminated in a visit to a cemetery imbued with political symbolism, underscoring his differences with Trump’s policies and approach.

These events illustrate a world grappling with significant political, social, and legal challenges, from the enduring conflict in Gaza and political upheaval in France to high-stakes legal proceedings in the United States and evolving medical controversies.

Trump’s Revenge: Post-Conviction Vendetta Raises Alarms and Political Tensions

Since last week’s conviction of former President Trump on 34 felony counts, he and his supporters have been fixated on seeking revenge.

Within an hour of the verdict, Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) took to social media, suggesting it was time for “Red State AGs and DAs to get busy.”

Trump himself hinted at possible retaliation against Democrats, stating to Newsmax that it was “very possible” they could face prosecution in the future. He reiterated this sentiment on Fox News, asserting his “right to go after them” following his own legal battles.

His call for retribution extended to members of the House special committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, whom he suggested should face indictment. In an interview with Dr. Phil McGraw, he even justified revenge, saying, “sometimes revenge can be justified.”

Trump has repeatedly framed his potential reelection as the ultimate revenge, asserting that his success would unify a deeply divided nation. However, concerns have risen about the emphasis on revenge from Trump and his allies, particularly in light of his unprecedented felony conviction.

According to Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), the use of the criminal justice system to target political adversaries undermines fundamental American values. He dismissed Republican attempts to paint legal actions against Trump as politically motivated, insisting there’s no evidence to support such claims.

Since his indictment last year, Trump has openly suggested targeting his opponents across various states, including proposing a special prosecutor to investigate the Biden family.

Republican lawmakers, echoing Trump’s grievances, have threatened repercussions against prosecutors and even floated the possibility of their own future prosecution.

Following Trump’s conviction, Republicans have called for cuts to federal funding for the Department of Justice and state-level prosecutors. Although such measures have limited impact, they signal a growing willingness to challenge legal institutions.

Some Republicans anticipate a more aggressive approach once Trump assumes office again, with his own appointees potentially reshaping the Justice Department.

Despite attempts from media figures to dissuade Trump from pursuing vendettas, he remains steadfast, attributing his conviction to political persecution.

While some lawmakers emphasize the importance of accountability and systemic improvements, others focus on retaliatory actions against perceived adversaries.

Despite criticisms of bias, Trump’s guilty verdict was unanimous, highlighting the strength of the case against him.

Democrats reject claims of unfair targeting, pointing to ongoing legal proceedings involving figures from both parties.

Trump’s fixation on revenge could harm him politically, with the Biden campaign contrasting his attacks on the justice system with the president’s focus on public issues and international diplomacy.

Biden has condemned Trump’s assaults on the legal system, warning of the damage to public trust in vital institutions.

In the wake of his criminal convictions, Trump’s priorities appear centered on preserving his own freedoms, raising questions about his motives and intentions moving forward.

Biden Commemorates D-Day Anniversary, Vows Continued Support for Ukraine and Democratic Values

President Joe Biden commemorated the 80th anniversary of D-Day on Thursday, using the occasion to warn against isolationism and affirm the U.S. commitment to Ukraine. Speaking in Normandy, Biden emphasized the strength alliances provide, calling the D-Day beaches “a powerful illustration of how alliances make us stronger,” and prayed Americans never forget this lesson.

Biden addressed a crowd of aging World War II veterans, many over 100 years old and in wheelchairs. He acknowledged that soon “the last living voices of those who fought and bled on D-Day will no longer be with us,” urging the nation to remember the significance of the postwar democratic order. “We cannot let what happened here be lost in the silence of the years to come,” Biden stated. “The fact that they were heroes here that day does not absolve us of what we have to do today.”

His speech combined solemn reflections with urgent calls for action. Flanked by French President Emmanuel Macron, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and dozens of American veterans, Biden praised the bravery of World War II’s last living fighters and linked their efforts to the current conflict in Ukraine. Highlighting the recent NATO expansion and the Ukrainian fight against Russian invasion, he promised never to yield to autocrats like Russian President Vladimir Putin. The coalition supporting Ukraine “will not walk away,” Biden declared, warning that “all of Europe will be threatened” if Ukraine falls. “The autocrats of the world are watching closely … to surrender to bullies, to bow down to dictators, is simply unthinkable.”

This speech marked the beginning of a multi-day trip, during which Biden will honor one of the most significant military battles in U.S. history and reiterate the importance of democratic values. Biden arrived at the Normandy American Cemetery early, met with 41 D-Day veterans—most of whom are over 100 years old—and recorded an interview with ABC News anchor David Muir. Alongside First Lady Jill Biden, the president greeted each veteran personally in a gazebo overlooking Omaha Beach, saluting and shaking hands with all before posing for pictures.

To one 102-year-old veteran, Biden remarked, “The greatest generation ever, man. You saved the world.” He bent down to look another veteran in the eyes and repeated, “You saved the world.”

As the ceremony began, approximately 170 American WWII veterans were brought in on wheelchairs, highlighting both the time elapsed since D-Day and the likelihood that this would be the last major commemoration with a significant number of living veterans present. Macron, who spoke before Biden, emphasized the “eternal bond” between the U.S. and France, describing it as a “blood tie, shed for liberty.” He honored the soldiers who landed on Normandy’s beaches, noting their sacrifices and recounting several veterans’ histories of service. “The free world needed each of you and you said yes when we asked for help,” Macron said, switching to English for this part of his speech. “And you are back here today at home.”

Later that afternoon, Biden planned to attend a larger D-Day commemoration at Omaha Beach alongside world leaders such as Macron, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who is likely to become NATO’s next secretary general. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was also expected to attend. Biden and Zelenskyy were anticipated to have a brief discussion on recent developments in Russia’s invasion and potential additional security measures.

On Friday, Biden will return to Normandy to deliver a more extensive speech at Pointe du Hoc, a significant 100-foot cliff scaled by Army Rangers during the D-Day invasion. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan explained that these back-to-back speeches aim to “draw a through line” from World War II, through the Cold War, to the present day. “The Pointe du Hoc speech is a speech about, in his view, timeless principles — principles that have served as the foundation of American security and American democracy for generations — including the generation that scaled those cliffs, including today’s generation, including the next generation,” Sullivan told reporters on Air Force One.

In his address, Biden underscored the connection between the sacrifices of the past and the current global struggle for democracy, using the memory of D-Day to highlight the importance of unity and continued vigilance against authoritarianism.

Israeli Airstrike on UN School in Gaza Kills at Least 35, Including Children, Amid Controversy Over Hamas Presence

An Israeli airstrike on a United Nations school housing displaced Palestinians in central Gaza has resulted in the deaths of at least 35 people. Local journalists informed the BBC that the attack involved two missiles striking classrooms on the top floor of the school situated in the urban Nuseirat refugee camp. Videos from the scene depicted widespread destruction and numerous casualties.

The Israeli military claimed it conducted a “precise strike on a Hamas compound” within the school, eliminating many of the 20 to 30 fighters it believed were present. Contrarily, Gaza’s Hamas-run Government Media Office refuted this assertion, condemning the strike as a “horrific massacre.”

Philippe Lazzarini, head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (Unrwa), which operates the school, described the incident as “horrific.” He expressed shock at the allegation that armed groups were in the shelter, although this could not be verified.

Casualties were transported to the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Hospital in nearby Deir al-Balah, which has been overwhelmed since Israel initiated a new ground offensive against Hamas in central Gaza earlier in the week.

The precise circumstances of the strike remain unclear, with the BBC working to confirm details. Local journalists and residents reported that the attack occurred early Thursday morning at al-Sardi school in a southeastern section of the densely populated, decades-old camp, where Unrwa provides services. The school was crowded with hundreds of displaced individuals who had fled other conflict zones within Gaza. Throughout the almost eight-month-long war, 1.7 million people have sought refuge in schools and other UN facilities.

Udai Abu Elias, a resident at the school, recounted to BBC Arabic’s Gaza Today programme: “I was asleep when the incident occurred. Suddenly, we heard a loud explosion and shattered glass and debris from the building fell on us.” He added, “Smoke filled the air, and I couldn’t see anything. I didn’t expect to make it out alive. I heard someone calling for survivors to come out from under the rubble. I struggled to see as I stumbled over the bodies of the martyrs.”

Another resident, Jabr, described waking up to “the sight of bodies and [human] remains everywhere,” while another unnamed individual noted that the casualties included “elderly people, young individuals, and children.” Social media videos depicted the devastation of several classrooms and bodies wrapped in white shrouds and blankets. One injured woman cried out in a video, “Enough war! We have been displaced dozens of times. They killed our children while they were sleeping.”

Initial reports suggested over 20 deaths, but an official at al-Aqsa hospital later informed a BBC freelancer that 40 bodies had been received from the school. Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry confirmed this toll, listing 40 dead, including 14 children and nine women, with 74 others injured. Ismail al-Thawabta, director of the Hamas-run Government Media Office, corroborated these figures.

Unrwa’s Philippe Lazzarini stated on X, formerly Twitter, that at least 35 people were killed and many more injured, based on reports from Unrwa staff on the ground. Juliette Touma, Unrwa’s director of communications, echoed this, noting that “the figures are coming from our own Unrwa colleagues on the ground.”

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) justified the strike as targeting a Hamas compound within the Unrwa school. They released an annotated aerial photograph indicating classrooms on two upper floors as “locations of the terrorists.” The IDF claimed that members of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad involved in the October 7 attack on southern Israel, which resulted in 1,200 deaths and 251 hostages, were operating from the building. The IDF stated that steps were taken to minimize civilian casualties, including aerial surveillance and additional intelligence gathering.

Lt. Col. Peter Lerner, an IDF spokesman, asserted that 20 to 30 fighters used the school for planning and executing attacks, many of whom were killed in the strike. He added, “I’m not aware of any civilian casualties and I’d be very, very cautious of accepting anything that Hamas puts out.” Lerner also mentioned that the IDF had twice aborted the attack to reduce civilian harm and accused Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad of using UN facilities as operational bases.

Ismail al-Thawabta refuted the IDF’s allegations, stating, “The occupation uses lying to the public opinion through false fabricated stories to justify the brutal crime it conducted against dozens of displaced people.”

Lazzarini lamented that the school was hit “without prior warning” to Unrwa or the 6,000 displaced individuals sheltering there. He found the claims of armed groups being inside the shelter “shocking” but noted Unrwa could not verify these claims. He emphasized, “Attacking, targeting or using UN buildings for military purposes are a blatant disregard of International Humanitarian law. UN staff, premises and operations must be protected at all times.”

Lazzarini highlighted that over 180 Unrwa buildings had been struck since the war began, despite their coordinates being shared with conflict parties, resulting in more than 450 displaced individuals’ deaths. He demanded accountability for these actions.

The Gaza health ministry reports that at least 36,650 people have been killed in Gaza since Israel’s military campaign began, following the October 7 attack, with figures not distinguishing between civilians and combatants.

Recently, the Israeli military claimed operational control over eastern Bureij refugee camp, adjacent to Nuseirat, and eastern Deir al-Balah, with residents noting intense bombardment. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) reported that al-Aqsa hospital received at least 70 bodies, mostly women and children, in the past 24 hours.

A previous Israeli airstrike on a tented camp for displaced people near an Unrwa base in Rafah, targeting senior Hamas officials, drew international outrage when a resulting fire killed dozens of Palestinians. The IDF called the loss of life “tragic” and investigated the possibility of an explosion from Hamas-stored ammunition.

Efforts to broker a ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas were revived following this incident. US President Joe Biden recently detailed an Israeli proposal to Hamas, suggesting a six-week truce to release some hostages in exchange for Palestinians from Israeli jails, followed by a permanent ceasefire. A joint statement from the US, UK, and 16 other countries urged Israeli and Hamas leaders to finalize a deal to alleviate the hostage families’ suffering.

Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh expressed a willingness to consider a proposal based on ending the war and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains firm on not agreeing to a ceasefire before defeating Hamas and releasing hostages, striving for “total victory.”

Biden Imposes Immediate Halt on Asylum Processing at U.S.-Mexico Border Amid Surge in Illegal Entries

On Tuesday, President Joe Biden announced an immediate suspension of asylum processing at the U.S.-Mexico border whenever illegal entries exceed a specific limit he considers excessive. This policy change, effective immediately, is activated when arrests for illegal entry hit 2,500, a significant shift amid an election year that has seen Biden criticized by Republicans for an unprecedented surge in new arrivals.

The U.S. currently experiences about 4,000 daily entries, and this new measure has raised concerns among advocates who argue it endangers migrants and violates international obligations to provide safe haven for those whose lives are at risk. The Biden administration disputes these claims. Legal challenges are expected.

There are questions about the efficacy of this measure in curbing large-scale migrant entries. Although Mexico has agreed to accept back non-Mexican migrants, it will do so only in limited numbers. Additionally, the Biden administration lacks the necessary funding and diplomatic support to deport migrants to distant countries such as China and those in Africa.

Under the current system, asylum seekers can generally live and work in the U.S. while their claims are processed by the overwhelmed immigration courts. This new policy, however, alters the landscape significantly.

How Will This Play Out on the Ground?

The policy suspends asylum processing until average daily arrests for illegal crossings drop below 1,500 for a consecutive week, a threshold last seen in July 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike the pandemic-related asylum restrictions known as Title 42, which carried no legal consequences and encouraged repeat attempts, the new policy will issue deportation orders to those denied a chance to seek asylum. This exposes them to criminal prosecution if they attempt to re-enter and bans them from legally entering the country for several years.

“We are ready to repatriate a record number of people in the coming days,” stated Blas Nuñez-Neto, assistant homeland security secretary for border and immigration policy, during a conference call for Spanish-language reporters.

Migrants expressing fear for their safety upon deportation will be screened by U.S. asylum officers under stricter standards than currently in place. If they pass this screening, they may pursue other forms of humanitarian protection, such as those outlined in the U.N. Convention Against Torture. Unaccompanied children are exempt, which may lead some parents to send their children across the border alone.

**What Role Does Mexico Play?**

Mexico’s role is crucial. The U.S. has limited resources to fly migrants back to over 100 countries, including many in Africa and Asia. It also lacks the diplomatic influence and logistical arrangements necessary to deport large numbers of migrants to countries like China, Russia, and Venezuela.

A 1997 court order generally restricts the detention of families with children under 18 to 20 days, an ambitious and likely unrealistic timeframe for screening and deporting those expressing fear of deportation. Even for single adults, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has the capacity to detain only about 34,000 people at a time.

Mexico has agreed to take back up to 30,000 people per month from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, in addition to Mexicans. However, this commitment does not extend to other nationalities. This year, Mexico has also made it more difficult for migrants to reach the U.S. border by preventing them from riding freight trains and stopping them on buses to turn them back to southern Mexico. While Mexican authorities block migrants’ progress, relatively few are deported, leaving many stranded in Mexican cities far from the U.S. border.

Alicia Bárcena, Mexico’s foreign relations secretary, stated last month that Mexico will not allow more than 4,000 illegal entries per day. President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, set to take office on October 1, is expected to continue the policies of her mentor, current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Has This Been Tried Before?

This measure is the latest in a series of attempts by both the Biden and Trump administrations to deter asylum seekers, none of which have had lasting effects. In May 2023, Biden imposed similar restrictions on asylum for those crossing the border illegally after passing through another country, such as Mexico. A federal appeals court has allowed those restrictions to remain in place while advocates challenge them, but their impact appears minimal.

Illegal crossings decreased following last year’s restrictions, but the reduction was temporary as the number of screening officers was insufficient for the task. The application of the rule to only a small percentage of arrests highlighted the gap between budget allocations and policy ambitions.

Biden invoked a section of the Immigration and Nationality Act allowing the president to ban entry for groups of people if their presence “would be detrimental to the interests of the United States.” Former President Donald Trump used this power to ban entry from predominantly Muslim countries, though advocacy groups are likely to argue that Biden has not adequately met the “detrimental” criterion.

This latest policy shift reflects ongoing efforts to manage and control the influx of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border, balancing international obligations with domestic pressures and resource limitations. The effectiveness and legality of the new measure will be closely scrutinized in the coming months, as its implementation impacts both migrants and the broader immigration system.

Trump Campaign and RNC Raise $141 Million in May, Surge Fueled by Guilty Verdict

Donald Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee announced that they raised a substantial $141 million in May. This significant fundraising total includes tens of millions of dollars that flowed in following Trump’s guilty verdict in his criminal hush money trial.

Although Trump’s campaign is not obliged to reveal its fundraising figures to the Federal Election Commission until later this month, they chose to disclose the numbers early. This decision highlights their belief that the influx of contributions is a testament to the former president’s supporters rallying behind him after the verdict and indicates that it will not impede his pursuit of a return to the White House.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s campaign has not yet released its fundraising totals for May. In April, Trump and the Republican Party raised $76 million, surpassing the $51 million reported by Biden and the Democratic National Committee for the same month.

The extent of Trump and the GOP’s expenditures in May remains unclear. However, the considerable sum raised could help reduce the financial disparity with Biden, which has been a consistent challenge throughout the campaign.

In a press release on Monday, Trump’s campaign stated that it received over two million donations in May, with an average contribution of $70.27. A notable 37.6% of this amount came from online donations within 24 hours of the verdict announcement. Additionally, about a quarter of the donors were new to the campaign.

“We are moved by the outpouring of support for President Donald J. Trump. The American people saw right through Crooked Joe Biden’s rigged trial, and sent Biden and Democrats a powerful message – the REAL verdict will come on November 5th,” said Trump Campaign senior advisers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles in a statement.

In response, Biden campaign spokesman Ammar Moussa remarked that they would “see how the numbers actually shake out” when officially reported. He also commented, “one thing’s for certain: Trump’s billionaire friends are propping up the campaign of a white-collar crook because they know the deal – they cut him checks and he cuts their taxes while working people and the middle class pay the tab.”

Last week, Trump’s campaign announced it had raised over $50 million online within 24 hours after the Manhattan jury delivered its verdict. This verdict made Trump the first former president and first major party presumptive nominee in the nation’s history to be convicted of a crime.

Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on July 11.

CFPB Director Rohit Chopra Announces corporate ‘repeat offender’ registry

The federal government’s top consumer watchdog is establishing a registry to track companies and people who repeatedly break consumer protection laws, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) announced Monday.

Initially proposed in December 2022, the new rule will require non-bank companies hit with local, state or federal consumer protection-related court or agency enforcement orders to register with the CFPB and a senior executive from the company to attest the company is not still offending.

“Too often, financial firms treat penalties for illegal activity as the cost of doing business,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. “The CFPB’s new rule will help law enforcement across the country detect and stop repeat offenders.”

The registry will publicly disclose information and orders entered after an agency or court has found the company or individual has committed wrongdoing or something illegal, a CFPB official said. The bureau has not established an appeal or delisting process, as was requested in comments on the initial proposed rule.

The CFPB proposed the rule in December 2022, and a CFPB official told reporters Monday the final rule includes changes to cut down on duplicate registration, increase the exemption threshold to $5 million in revenue and create an implementation schedule.

Larger non-bank participants will be among the first tranche of registrations due Jan. 14, 2025, a CFPB official said. Other supervised companies will have until April 14, 2025, and July 14, 2025.

The bureau expects the public registry to go live sometime next year.

“This registry is part of a serious and concerted effort at the CFPB to rein in repeat offenders,” Chopra told reporters Monday. “When companies believe that violating the law is more profitable than following it, this totally undermines public trusts and harms that businesses who are playing by the rules.”

The Biden administration has issued a wave of new rules intended to beef up worker and consumer power. The CFPB last month moved to classify “buy now, pay later” applications as credit card companies, while the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) voted in April to ban the use of noncompete agreements and nullify most existing agreements.

These rules come as President Biden gears up for a tough reelection race against former President Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee.

Many Americans have negative feelings about the state of the economy, and perceptions of Biden’s handling of the economy has been a persistent thorn in his campaign’s side. The economy and still-elevated inflation are top issues for voters, and more Americans trust Trump than Biden on these issues, according to a recent ABC News/Ipsos Poll.

Claudia Sheinbaum: Mexico’s First Female President

Claudia Sheinbaum’s Background and Achievements

Claudia Sheinbaum, known as “la Doctora” for her impressive academic background, is a physicist with a doctorate in energy engineering. She has served as the former mayor of Mexico City, one of the world’s most populous cities, and was part of the United Nations panel of climate scientists that received a Nobel Peace Prize. She made history by becoming the first woman and the first person of Jewish heritage to be elected president of Mexico, winning around 60% of the vote in the largest election in Mexico’s history.

Sheinbaum’s academic career includes receiving the prize of best UNAM young researcher in engineering and technological innovation in 1999. She also joined the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at the United Nations, contributing to reports on the topic “Mitigation of climate change” and co-authoring the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in 2013. She has been dedicated to university teaching, focusing on renewable energy and climate change.

Challenges Ahead for Sheinbaum

One of the challenges Sheinbaum faces is to establish her own platform gradually while initially acting as a faithful disciple of her longtime ally, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. She will need to navigate the transition carefully, offering glimpses of her own program without stoking instability in the movement’s base. Despite her close association with Obrador, there are clear differences between the two leaders, with Sheinbaum emphasizing her decision-making based on data and science.

Another significant challenge for Sheinbaum is addressing Mexico’s organized crime and security issues. The country has been plagued by high levels of violence, with a soaring homicide rate and a significant number of people missing. Additionally, Mexico remains a dangerous place for women, with high femicide rates. Sheinbaum will need to act quickly on these pressing security issues.

US-Mexico Relations

Sheinbaum’s presidency comes at a critical time for US-Mexico relations, as both countries are holding elections in 2024. Mexico is a key US ally on various issues, including trade, drug trafficking, and migration management. The relationship between President Joe Biden and Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been described as friendly and professional, and the Biden administration anticipates a productive relationship with Mexico’s next president. However, the election in Mexico has raised uncertainty about potential changes in border cooperation and migration policies.

Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidency marks a historic moment for Mexico, and she faces significant challenges in establishing her own platform while addressing pressing security issues and navigating US-Mexico relations.

Trump’s Potential Return to Presidency Could Lead to ‘Dictatorship and Anarchy’ Warns Historian; Former President Found Guilty on All Charges

Michael Beschloss, a revered historian specializing in the American presidency, sounded a note of caution on an MSNBC show on Saturday. He warned that if former President Donald Trump were to regain his position in the Oval Office, it could result in a dangerous slide towards “dictatorship and anarchy” for the United States.

Beschloss’s Analysis:

Speaking on “The Saturday Show with Jonathan Capeheart,” Beschloss emphasized the gravity of the situation. He stated, “He is saying, I will dismantle our rule of law, which is the glory of America, keeps the peace, assures fairness when it works for all Americans. You’ve got dictatorship and anarchy at the same time.”

He further highlighted the stark choice that lies ahead, labeling Trump as a “convicted felon.” Beschloss went on to discuss Trump’s public statement delivered post-trial where the former president expressed his desire to “dismantle parts of the Constitution” and labeled the system as “rotten.”

Trump’s Conviction:

In a precedent-setting case, Trump was pronounced guilty by a jury in New York City on all 34 felony charges of falsifying business records. This marked the first time in history a current or former American president has been tried in court.

Trump’s Post-Conviction Speech:

Following his conviction, Trump addressed the public, claiming, “Our country is in very bad shape, and they’re very much against me saying these things.” He criticized the current administration for their plans to raise taxes and impose mandates that would hinder car ownership.

Trump declared himself the leading contender for the presidency, outranking Joe Biden and the rest of the Republican field. He claimed his speech was hampered by a court-issued gag order and accused the White House and the Department of Justice of being in collusion with Biden’s administration.

In his speech, Trump expressed his belief that his trial was rigged and that his requests for a venue change and a non-conflicted judge were denied.

Post-Conviction Developments:

Following his conviction, Trump made a public appearance at a UFC fight over the weekend where he was met with cheers from the crowd. His campaign also managed to raise an impressive nearly $53 million within a day of the verdict. Despite the recent controversy and his legal troubles, these events suggest that Trump still retains significant support among certain sections of the American populace.

Generational Nostalgia: Why Americans Fondly Remember Their Youth as the ‘Good Old Days’

YouGov, the survey experts renowned for their adeptness at tackling the intangible, recently polled 2,000 adults on which decade excelled in areas like music, movies, and the economy across 20 measures. Yet, no clear pattern emerged from the results.

Certain trends did stand out, however. White people and Republicans, for instance, were about twice as likely as Black people and Democrats to view the 1950s as the era of the most moral society, happiest families, and closest-knit communities. This disparity likely hinges on whether one recalls that decade for its idyllic “Leave it to Beaver” charm or for its darker moments like the Red Scare and the murder of Emmett Till.

“This was a time when Repubs were pretty much running the show and had reason to be happy,” noted nostalgia researcher Morris Holbrook via email. “Apparently, you could argue that nostalgia is colored by political preferences. Surprise, surprise.” Holbrook’s point underscores that political, racial, or gender divides are overshadowed by generational perspectives in these assessments.

When the data was re-evaluated by examining the gap between each person’s birth year and their ideal decade, a fascinating pattern emerged. This revealed that nostalgia isn’t tied to a specific era but rather to a particular age. The “good old days” are typically the decade when individuals were around 11 years old, an age of innocence and parental omniscience.

The data showed that our nostalgia peaks during specific life stages. For instance, the most tightly-knit communities are remembered from childhood (ages 4 to 7), while the happiest families, most moral societies, and most reliable news reporting are associated with early formative years (ages 8 to 11). The best economy, radio, television, and movies are linked to early teens (ages 12 to 15). As people reach their late teens (ages 16 to 19), nostalgia for music, fashion, and sporting events intensifies, consistent with findings from the University of South Australia’s Ehrenberg-Bass Institute which pinpoint music nostalgia at around age 17.

Interestingly, YouGov also asked about the worst music and economy. Consistently, respondents viewed “right now” as the worst time. Even when historical context suggests otherwise, such as the Great Depression, which had far worse unemployment rates than today’s pandemic-induced lows, the present era is often viewed as the most challenging.

This perception is particularly pronounced among Republicans, who were notably more negative about the current decade compared to Democrats. Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, explained this partisan split. She observed that people whose party is in power generally have more favorable economic sentiments, a gap that has widened over time. During Trump’s presidency, Republicans’ optimism surged while Democrats’ expectations plummeted. This trend flipped with Biden’s inauguration but remains significant.

Hsu and her team explored where Americans get their economic information. They found that Republicans who follow partisan news outlets are more likely to view the economy negatively, although only a fifth of Republicans primarily rely on these sources. Despite this, both Democrats and independents also expressed dissatisfaction with the current decade, though to a lesser extent.

Carl Bialik from YouGov noted that when Americans were asked last year which decade they’d most prefer to live in, the most common answer was “now.” This suggests that while the current era is viewed negatively in specific terms, there is still a preference for contemporary life over past decades.

A deeper understanding emerged during a Zoom call with Australian researchers from the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, who revisited music nostalgia. Their study asked respondents to rate songs from different decades, revealing a preference for music from their late teens without a corresponding spike in negative ratings for recent music.

Marketing researcher Bill Page pointed out that asking about the “worst” era often elicits a predisposition towards negative thinking rather than genuine opinions. His colleague Zac Anesbury added that surveys can unintentionally measure sentiments like “declinism,” the belief that things are perpetually getting worse. This phenomenon, rooted in rosy retrospection, means that we tend to remember the past more fondly than the present.

Psychological studies by Leigh Thompson and Terence Mitchell have shown that our satisfaction with experiences improves over time. For instance, a trip that seemed disappointing while underway might be remembered fondly once it’s over and the difficulties have faded.

In essence, describing the 2020s as the worst decade ever is akin to lamenting a trip during its roughest moments. Over time, as memories soften and the good moments stand out, the current decade may eventually be looked back on with nostalgia.

So, in a few decades, reflecting on the 2020s through the lens of cherished photos and fond memories, we might find ourselves recalling the good times rather than the challenges. Thus, the 2020s could well become the “good old days” of the future.

Biden Unveils Israeli-Led Peace Plan: Roadmap to Ceasefire and Hostage Release

President Biden has unveiled a pivotal Israeli-led initiative aimed at ending the ongoing conflict and securing the release of all remaining hostages held since October 7. The proposal outlines a three-stage roadmap, marking a significant step towards potential resolution between Israel and Hamas.

In a press briefing, President Biden emphasized the extensive diplomatic efforts undertaken by his team, including numerous discussions with leaders from Israel, Qatar, Egypt, and other regional stakeholders. He described Israel’s comprehensive proposal as a pathway to a sustainable ceasefire and the liberation of all captives. Although the proposal has been relayed to Hamas through Qatar, formal acceptance from the Gaza-based organization is pending.

“This is truly a decisive moment,” remarked President Biden, urging Hamas to seize the opportunity for peace by endorsing the deal. He also called upon the Israeli populace to support the initiative, highlighting the significant blows dealt to Hamas during the conflict, rendering a recurrence of October 7 unlikely.

Acknowledging potential dissent within Israel, particularly from factions advocating for prolonged military engagement, President Biden cautioned against perpetuating the war indefinitely. He stressed the imperative of prioritizing the release of hostages and embracing the proposed ceasefire as a means to avert further bloodshed.

Senior administration officials elaborated on the proposal’s phased approach, spanning approximately six weeks for each stage. Phase one entails a ceasefire period coupled with humanitarian efforts to alleviate the plight of Gazans, including infrastructure rehabilitation and provision of essential services.

The subsequent phase focuses on the release of remaining hostages and the permanent cessation of hostilities, accompanied by the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza’s populated areas. Negotiations will be pivotal in navigating the transition to this stage, with provisions in place to extend the ceasefire if required.

Phase three envisions a comprehensive reconstruction program spanning three to five years, supported by the U.S. and the international community. This initiative aims to address the long-term stabilization and rehabilitation of Gaza.

The proposal’s announcement follows previous ceasefire negotiations that ended without a resolution. Concurrently, Israeli military operations persist in certain areas, prompting concerns about civilian casualties and the escalation of violence.

President Biden emphasized his enduring commitment to Israel and underscored the urgency of seizing the current opportunity for peace. He reiterated his longstanding advocacy for a two-state solution and expressed optimism that the proposed roadmap could pave the way for such a resolution in the future.

Indian American Community Reflects the Sentiments of a Divided Nation, Responding to Trump Conviction

According to The YouGov survey, conducted immediately after former President Donald Trump was convicted in all 34 counts in the New York hush money trial, 50 percent of Americans agreed with the jury on the members’ decision to convict the former president. In the same survey, about 19 percent said they were “not sure” if they agreed with the decision and about 30 percent said they didn’t agree.

Trump became the first former U.S. president to be a convicted felon Thursday, May 30, 2024 after a jury found him guilty on all counts of falsifying business records in connection with hush money payments his then-fixer, Michael Cohen, made to porn actor Stormy Daniels, ahead of the 2016 election.

Shortly following the jury reading the verdict, Trump railed against the trial outside the courtroom. “This was a rigged, disgraceful trial. The real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people, and they know what happened here, and everybody knows what happened here,” Trump said. “This is a scam,” he said of the case brought by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office led by Alvin Bragg, overseen by Judge Juan Merchan.
President Joe Biden criticized Trump over his language on the trial’s fairness. “It’s reckless, it’s dangerous, it’s irresponsible for anyone to say this was rigged just because they don’t like the verdict,” the president said. “Our justice system should be respected, and we should never allow anyone to tear it down; it’s as simple as that,” he added.

House Speaker Mike Johnson said it was a “shameful day in American history” and the charges were “purely political.” Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance said the verdict was a “disgrace to the judicial system.” And Louisiana Rep. Steve Scalise, the No. 2 House Republican, said that the decision was “a defeat for Americans who believe in the critical legal tenet that justice is blind.”

Judith Browne Dianis, executive director of the Advancement Project Action Fund civil rights group, including several racial justice advocates, is using the historic moment to remind the hush money trial was just part of a broader narrative around electoral justice. Derrick Johnson, president and CEO of the NAACP called the verdict against Trump “a monumental step toward justice for the American people.” Johnson, who leads the nation’s oldest civil rights organization, said Trump’s criminal conviction ought to disqualify him from the Oval Office.

While the nation has reacted differently to the verdict, the Indian American community has reflected its views by one’s political ideology. Indian American community that overwhelmingly votes for Democrats—whose prominence in American public life is relatively new, is now fielding multiple political candidates on the national stage, in addition to having elected several lawmakers at the national, state, and local levels.

The rapid rise of Indian Americans is one of the most startling domestic events in 21st-century America and one of the great success stories of liberal multiculturalism. Indian Americans are now the most economically successful ethnic group in America. The community’s views have evolved, with some Indian Americans leaving the Democratic fold, and embracing the conservative Republican Party.

While some have expressed overwhelming support for the verdict, others see this as an abuse of power by the Democrats to deny Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee the White House.

“No one is above the law. It was good that the Manhattan DA and his team did a great job in convincing the jury that former President Trump is guilty of all charges, said Dr. Thomas Abraham, Chairman, GOPIO International. “When we have a constitution and rule of law in this country, everyone has to follow. The courts have to hear the grievances of the society at large, and in this case through DA, and punish those who break the laws. That is the way democratic institutions work. If Trump feels that this is not a correct verdict, he can still appeal.”

However, Nithin George Eapen, thinks the verdict is politically motivated. “In my opinion, this verdict against Trump is nothing more than a political circus orchestrated by the liberal elites of the Democratic Party in New York, says Eapen, an Entrepreneur and Investor, well known for his expertise and eloquence as a Three-time TEDx Speaker. “This case highlights the deep divisions and contentious nature of American politics and justice. The verdict by a majority liberal jury symbolizes the erosion of American values, edging the nation closer to becoming a Banana Republic.”

Eapen says, these individuals, once beneficiaries of Trump’s donations, now seek to undermine him because they perceive him as a threat to their political dominance. They are determined to prevent someone they consider beneath their social class from gaining power again. This move by the political elite is an attempt to protect their own interests by using the power of the legal process in their control to damage Trump’s influence before the November election, where they have a vulnerable candidate.

Eapen is of the belief that “Nothing will happen to Trump as he will appeal and most likely win also and that process will take time. This will energize his base and gain sympathies for a man being targeted by the leviathan. In the meanwhile now he can get back on the campaign trail and raise money. The case was able to keep him off the campaign trail and give edge to their the senile lethargic vulnerable candidate. In a constitutional republic, targeting political opponents when in power can backfire, as those opponents may one day control the same state machinery of police and courts. This sets a dangerous precedent though potentially leading to endless taxpayer money being wasted on frivolous cases in the future by every set of unforgiving political elite.”

Rajeshwar Prasad, founder and chairman of The National Indo-American Association for Senior Citizens (NIAASC) summed it up this way: “Today’s verdict against Trump shows that nobody is above the LAW. Guilty on all 34 criminal counts. A very sad chapter in the political history of the. United States.”

Dr. Mathew Joys, a well-known writer and past BOD Secretary of the Indo-American Press Club takes us back to the past while relating to the present case. “34 COUNT GUILTY! There are instances of Former Presidents getting into hush money cases and sex scandals, and it is not a hot story for Americans. The sexual misconduct scandals surrounding then-President Bill Clinton with Monica Lewinsky or Paula Jones and past President Donald Trump with Stormy Daniels both might look similar— two former presidents paying money to women with whom they had sexual relations.”

According to Dr. Joys, “The most significant and crucial difference is that Clinton belongs to the Democrats, the ruling party, whereas Trump is a Republican. Clinton mutually reached an out-of-court settlement. In contrast, Trump privately arranged his payments to keep Daniels from speaking publicly in the first place. If so, the verdicts could have been similar, too. It seems the Court is showing some mercy by allowing Trump to remain in the current Presidential Election campaigns.

Dr. Joys points to Trump’s statement after the verdict: “I’m a very innocent man,” Trump told reporters, vowing that the “real verdict” would come from voters on election day. He branded the trial “rigged” and a “disgrace.”

Vinay Mahajan, an entrepreneur and the President & CEO of NAM Info Inc., agrees. “The US legal system works, even an ex-President is not above the law. The Jury has found President Trump guilty. The justice will take its own course, and there will be an appeal at the higher courts. We should not rush our judgments. Let us wait for the highest court of the country to decide. The final decision will be made in the People’s Court in November.”

While the nation is still trying to accept the new reality that a former President of the nation is a convicted felon, the verdict and its impact can be very long-lasting. One cannot agree less with POLITICO, which wrote recently: “On the one hand, it is a powerful demonstration that in this country even a former head of state can be indicted and convicted by a group of his peers. On the other hand, the fact that one of the two men likely to be president next year is now a convicted felon sets up the possibility that those very same judicial institutions that guarantee the rule of law will come under the most ferocious political attack in our history.”

Forecast Model Favors Trump and GOP in White House and Congressional Races, but Democrats Remain Hopeful

According to a recent forecast model released by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, the former President Trump and the GOP are currently in favorable positions for the upcoming elections, with Trump having a 58 percent chance of winning the presidency. The model also suggests that Republicans have an 80 percent chance of securing the Senate majority and a 64 percent chance of retaining their House majority. This forecast is based on approximately 200 different data points, including voter registration numbers, demographics, past election results, fundraising totals, and polling averages.

Scott Tranter, the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ, stressed that these projections are subject to change before Election Day, likening them to a practice test. He emphasized that the current data represents a snapshot in time and may not accurately reflect the final outcome.

Despite these projections, there is growing anxiety within the Democratic Party, fueled by consistent polling showing President Biden trailing Trump in swing states. Additionally, issues such as the conflict in Gaza have further complicated matters for Democrats, particularly with young and minority voters, key constituents from the 2020 election.

Moreover, dissatisfaction with the economy and Biden’s handling of economic issues is evident in polls, contributing to the challenges faced by Democrats. Despite facing legal issues, Trump maintains a lead over Biden in both national and swing state polls.

In the Senate race, Democrats face a tough battle due to the unfavorable electoral map, particularly in states like Montana and Ohio where Trump holds a significant advantage. Without victories in these states, Democrats risk losing the Senate majority. Similarly, Democrats are considered underdogs in the race to regain the House majority, according to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s forecast.

Decision Desk HQ utilizes an ensemble approach, combining various algorithms to analyze data and generate probabilities for each candidate’s success in different states. Trump currently leads Biden in polling averages in key battleground states, although states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania remain closely contested.

Despite concerns over Biden’s low approval ratings, some Democrats remain optimistic, citing his experience and advising against premature panic. The unpredictable nature of politics, particularly with regard to Trumpism, suggests that the political landscape could change before November.

Republicans express confidence in their prospects, noting a trend favoring Trump and downplaying the impact of his legal battles. However, they acknowledge that unforeseen factors could alter the course of the election.

Interestingly, many Democratic down-ballot candidates are outperforming Biden in polling, indicating potential ticket splitting among voters. This trend suggests that the electorate in certain states may be open to voting for candidates from different parties.

Overall, while Republicans may feel encouraged by the current forecast, Tranter cautions against complacency, highlighting the potential for shifts in polling that could significantly impact the election outcome.

Trump’s Conviction: A Game-Changer or Temporary Setback for the 2024 Election?

Scandals have surrounded former President Donald Trump since his initial presidential campaign in 2016. However, following his conviction in his New York hush-money case, he is now officially labeled as a convicted felon, adding a new dimension to his controversial legacy. This development begs the question: could this conviction significantly alter the trajectory of the 2024 election?

Initial indicators suggest that Trump’s conviction could indeed erode his support base. A poll conducted by CNN/SSRS in April revealed that while 76 percent of Trump supporters vowed unwavering allegiance, 24 percent admitted they might reconsider their support if he were convicted. Similarly, a May survey by Emerson College found that 25 percent of voters claimed a guilty verdict in New York would diminish their likelihood of voting for Trump.

Some pollsters adopted a two-pronged approach, asking respondents their voting preferences both with and without considering Trump’s conviction. On average, Trump’s standing shifted from a 1 percentage point lead to a 6-point deficit when the conviction was factored in.

However, Democrats should temper their enthusiasm, considering the nuances within these statistics. The wording of the CNN/SSRS poll, for instance, reveals that while 24 percent of Trump supporters might reconsider their vote, this doesn’t necessarily translate to definitive abandonment. Many may simply experience a crisis of confidence without outright switching allegiance to President Joe Biden.

A poll by ABC News/Ipsos echoed this sentiment. While 16 percent of respondents claimed they would reconsider their support for Trump following a conviction, only 4 percent stated they would completely withdraw it. Moreover, caution is warranted in interpreting polls like Emerson’s, which gauge whether events influence voting behavior. Often, respondents use such questions as proxies for their approval or disapproval rather than literal indicators of future action.

Interestingly, a significant portion of those claiming a conviction would sway their vote towards Biden had already expressed support for him in previous questions. Conversely, only a small fraction of Trump supporters indicated that a guilty verdict would deter them from voting for him, suggesting a lesser impact on his actual support than initially presumed.

Additional polls reinforce the notion that Trump’s conviction may not trigger mass defections to Biden. Instead, the majority of lost support for Trump translates into undecided or hypothetical “someone else” categories. While Trump’s support decreases by an average of 6 points post-conviction, Biden only gains 1 point, with 5 points going to undecided or alternative options.

This dynamic suggests that while some Trump supporters may hesitate to endorse him following the conviction, they are unlikely to pivot towards Biden. Consequently, the dip in Trump’s support may be transient. Past behavior serves as a predictor, indicating that many defectors could eventually realign with Trump, especially given the substantial time remaining until Election Day. Trump’s ability to craft a narrative that assuages concerns about supporting a convicted felon could further facilitate this return to the fold.

The parallels with past events, such as the fallout from the “Access Hollywood” tape during the 2016 campaign, underscore the potential for Trump’s support to rebound swiftly. Despite initial discomfort among Republicans, Trump’s popularity recovered within weeks of the tape’s release.

Nevertheless, even if most defectors ultimately return to Trump’s camp, the conviction’s impact on the race should not be dismissed entirely. Biden’s marginal 1-point gain could prove decisive in a closely contested election, though it’s crucial not to exaggerate the conviction’s influence. Ultimately, if the outcome of the hush-money trial shapes the presidential race, it will likely be within the margins of a closely contested contest.

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