Category: Environment

Over four million people across five states remained under winter storm alerts on Sunday as intense lake-effect snow blanketed the Great Lakes region, prompting emergency declarations and the deployment of National Guard troops to assist stranded motorists.

The snowfall, which began on Thursday, has been relentless, especially in western New York. The region, which has already been buried under more than 40 inches of snow, is bracing for an additional 24 inches from Sunday into Monday. States under winter alerts include New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Buffalo Faces Heavy Snowfall

A lake-effect snow warning persisted from Cleveland, Ohio, to Buffalo, New York, on Sunday. New York Governor Kathy Hochul declared a state of emergency for 11 counties, including Erie County, home to Buffalo.

“More heavy snowfall is expected across western and central New York through Sunday night and into Monday, with rates reaching up to 4 inches per hour,” Hochul stated on Sunday.

The snowstorm has left parts of the state buried under significant accumulations. By Sunday morning, Barns Corner in Lewis County recorded 45 inches of snow, while Perrysburg in Cattaraugus County and Copenhagen in Lewis County measured 37.6 inches and 36.5 inches, respectively.

Hochul warned that an additional 1 to 2 feet of snow could accumulate in western New York, with the heaviest deposits anticipated in northern Chautauqua and south-central Erie counties. The North Country region could see 2 to 3 feet of additional snow, particularly from northern Tug Hill to Watertown.

The Science Behind Lake-Effect Snow

Lake-effect snow, a common phenomenon during this time of year, occurs when cold air passes over relatively warmer lake waters, producing narrow, intense bands of snowfall.

According to the National Weather Service in Buffalo, “An intense lake-effect band across Watertown and Jefferson County will continue to produce snowfall rates of 3-4 inches per hour today.”

Efforts to Clear Snow at Highmark Stadium

In Orchard Park, a Buffalo suburb, the Buffalo Bills prepared to face the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night amid a challenging snow cleanup effort at Highmark Stadium. Over 18 inches of snow had already fallen at the stadium, with more expected before the 8:20 p.m. kickoff.

The snow was so overwhelming that the Bills sought volunteers to help with removal, offering $20 an hour along with food and hot beverages.

Governor Hochul praised the efforts of first responders, saying, “As New Yorkers face the ongoing impacts of lake-effect snow, first responders are working around the clock to ensure the safety of our communities. With tonight’s kickoff in our sights, we are doing everything we can to clear roads, assess damage, and provide resources to state and local partners.”

Travel advisories were issued for Jefferson, Lewis, and portions of Erie County. Additionally, lake-effect snow was predicted to reach central New York and parts of the Mohawk Valley region by Sunday afternoon, bringing 4 to 10 inches of snow to central New York and 3 to 5 inches to the Mohawk Valley.

The New York Department of Transportation also restricted certain commercial vehicles. Empty and tandem trucks were banned on I-86 between the Pennsylvania state line and I-390, as well as on State Route 219 from the Pennsylvania state line to I-90.

To address potential road and power emergencies, Hochul announced the deployment of additional personnel alongside National Guard members.

Pennsylvania Mobilizes National Guard

In Pennsylvania, Governor Josh Shapiro declared a disaster emergency and dispatched National Guard troops to Erie County to rescue stranded motorists.

“At the county’s request, I’ve called in the Pennsylvania National Guard—who are now on the ground—to help any stranded drivers and ensure emergency responders can reach those in need,” Shapiro said.

Between Friday and Saturday, Pennsylvania State Police responded to over 200 traffic incidents. Erie County Executive Brenton Davis said the local disaster emergency would remain in effect until midweek.

Davis added that county buildings, including courthouses, would remain closed on Monday and Tuesday, with officials advising school districts to do the same. He also urged residents to limit travel during the storm.

Record-Breaking Snowfall Across the Region

The heavy snow has shattered records across the region. Gaylord, Michigan, experienced its snowiest day on record on Friday, with 24.8 inches falling. This surpassed its previous record of 17 inches, set on March 9, 1942.

In an image shared by the New York Department of Transportation, a snowplow worked to clear a heavily blanketed road, underscoring the severity of the storm’s impact on infrastructure.

Counties in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have similarly reported substantial snowfall totals, as the Arctic blast continues to wreak havoc.

The combined efforts of state and local authorities, first responders, and volunteers remain focused on minimizing the storm’s disruption and ensuring public safety as the region braces for additional snowfall in the coming days.

The 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) commenced in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Monday, bringing together a broad array of delegates from nearly 200 countries. Business leaders, climate scientists, Indigenous Peoples, journalists, and other stakeholders are attending the conference, which will run until November 22.

The primary aim of COP29 is to unite countries in developing a collective strategy to address global warming. The summit is also expected to focus on enhancing climate finance to assist developing nations in mitigating the impacts of climate change.

What is COP?

The Conference of the Parties (COP) is an annual meeting of members of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), an international agreement signed in 1992. The UNFCCC has provided the foundation for climate negotiations, committing its members to work together to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations to a level that prevents dangerous human-induced interference with the climate system. Presently, there are 198 parties to the UNFCCC, which includes 197 countries and the European Union, making it nearly universal in its membership.

Since 1995, except for 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the parties have gathered each year to discuss international climate policies. A key responsibility of COP is to review the national communications and emission inventories submitted by member states. As outlined by the UNFCCC, “Based on this information, the COP assesses the effects of the measures taken by Parties and the progress made in achieving the ultimate objective of the Convention.”

Key Milestones of COP

COP has seen several significant milestones over the years. A major breakthrough occurred at COP3 in Kyoto in 1997, where the Kyoto Protocol was adopted. This international treaty set emission reduction targets for rich and industrialized nations, with the goal of reducing greenhouse gases by 4.2% by 2012, based on 1990 levels, as reported by the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).

However, the protocol faced significant challenges. Many wealthy nations, including the United States, which signed the protocol but never ratified it, expressed dissatisfaction with its provisions. At COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, efforts to establish a successor treaty fell short.

A more successful attempt came at COP21 in Paris in 2015, where the landmark Paris Agreement was forged. This legally binding international treaty aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius, ideally keeping it under 1.5 degrees Celsius. As part of the agreement, parties committed to submitting their climate action plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), by 2020.

Another significant development came at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, with the adoption of the Glasgow Pact. This agreement included a commitment to “phase down” coal use (though the language was watered down from “phase out” during negotiations) and to phase out “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.” This was the first time a UN climate agreement specifically addressed coal.

At COP28 in Dubai last year, the establishment of a Loss and Damage fund was a key highlight. This fund is designed to provide financial assistance to nations impacted by climate-related disasters.

Criticism of COP’s Effectiveness

Despite these milestones, COP has faced substantial criticism for its lack of progress in significantly reducing emissions and achieving climate goals. One of the most significant concerns is that COP has failed to implement sufficient emission cuts to meet the targets of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius. Studies have shown that the world must reduce emissions by at least 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels to keep the 1.5-degree target within reach. However, by 2023, emissions were still rising and had not yet peaked. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, global emissions are projected to be only 2% below 2019 levels by 2030, far from the required 43% reduction.

COP has also been criticized for its failure to fulfill promises regarding climate finance for developing nations. In 2009, wealthier countries, which are disproportionately responsible for the climate crisis, committed to raising $100 billion annually to help developing nations mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. However, they have not met this commitment, prompting frustration from poorer nations.

Expectations for COP29

At COP29, the issue of climate finance remains a central topic. Delegates are negotiating the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), which outlines the amount of money developed countries must raise annually from 2025 onward to finance climate action in developing nations. This amount must exceed the $100 billion previously promised.

However, discussions surrounding the NCQG have been marked by deep divisions. As reported by Carbon Brief, parties are at odds over several aspects of the fund, including “the amount of money that needs to be raised, who should contribute, what types of finance should feed into it, what it should fund, and what period of time it should cover.” As such, it remains uncertain how member states will finalize the NCQG.

Looking Forward

As COP29 continues, the global community will be watching closely to see whether meaningful progress can be made on these critical issues. The ability of wealthy nations to fulfill their climate finance promises and take more decisive action on emission reductions will play a pivotal role in determining whether the world can meet its climate goals in the years to come. With the stakes higher than ever, the outcome of COP29 will be crucial for shaping the future of global climate policy.

In conclusion, while COP has played a central role in advancing international climate dialogue, the persistent challenges, including insufficient emission reductions and unmet finance commitments, point to the need for more robust and immediate actions. As the summit unfolds, all eyes will be on the discussions and decisions that emerge from Baku.

In an unexpected climate event, parts of Saudi Arabia are witnessing snowfall and heavy rain for the first time on record. Recent weather in the Al-Jawf region brought about a rare sight of heavy snow, which has transformed the landscape in a country typically associated with heat and arid deserts. This snowfall follows a series of heavy rains and hail that swept across the region, creating a unique winter spectacle.

Residents of Al-Jawf awoke to an almost surreal scene with snow-covered mountains, as pristine white snow blanketed the area. According to the Saudi Press Agency, the weather not only brought snowfall but also revived the area’s natural water systems, forming waterfalls and revitalizing the region’s valleys. This winter transformation presents a welcome shift as the country transitions to the colder season. This season also serves as a prelude to the anticipated spring in Al-Jawf, known for blooming wildflowers. As spring progresses, vibrant flowers like lavender, chrysanthemum, and various aromatic plants color the landscape, creating a captivating seasonal display.

However, the Saudi weather department has advised residents to prepare for continued severe weather, forecasting thunderstorms across much of Al-Jawf. The department’s warnings include expectations for heavy rains, hail, and strong winds, which are anticipated to decrease visibility. Residents have been urged to remain cautious under these conditions.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is not alone in facing unusual weather; the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has also been experiencing similar conditions. On October 14, the UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) issued warnings of anticipated rain, thunderstorms, and possible hail across several areas. According to the NCM, these unusual weather patterns are attributed to low-pressure systems originating in the Arabian Sea and stretching toward Oman, impacting conditions throughout the region.

The snowfall in Al-Jawf is a sign of the changing climate patterns in the Middle East. In an area known for its dry climate, such weather is unprecedented and offers residents and visitors a rare chance to experience a winter landscape. As more rain is expected, the region eagerly awaits the vibrant spring blooms that usually follow, adding a sense of beauty and anticipation to this extraordinary weather event.

The Indian Express is set to bring back its renowned SCREEN magazine after an 11-year hiatus. The highly anticipated relaunch will take place in Mumbai on Friday, with a dazzling event that marks SCREEN’s first-ever digital cover, featuring Shraddha Kapoor, the star of the hit film Stree 2. This grand return of SCREEN will not only celebrate its illustrious history but also introduce a contemporary flair that resonates with today’s entertainment landscape.

SCREEN, a well-known name in Indian cinema journalism, has been a prominent voice in the entertainment industry since its inception in 1951. Over the decades, it has chronicled the ups and downs, trends, and transitions of the Indian film industry, making it a go-to publication for both fans and professionals. Now, after more than a decade, SCREEN is returning in a new and vibrant digital form.

The highlight of the event will be the unveiling of the digital cover, graced by Shraddha Kapoor, whose career has skyrocketed following her performance in Stree 2, a horror-comedy that achieved massive success at the box office. Kapoor’s presence is set to be a significant draw for the event, not just because of her star power, but also for her wide appeal across audiences.

The digital cover launch will be followed by a series of engaging and insightful panel discussions. The first major session, titled ‘SCREEN Live,’ will spotlight Shraddha Kapoor as she opens up about her career, personal life, and the immense fame she has garnered, especially after the success of Stree 2. She will share the stage with Jyoti Sharma Bawa, Entertainment Editor of The Indian Express, in a conversation that promises to give fans a deeper look into the life of one of Bollywood’s brightest stars. The session will also feature a special segment led by Anant Goenka, Executive Director of The Indian Express Group, and will conclude with a Q&A session, giving the audience a chance to interact directly with the actress.

In addition to the focus on Kapoor, the event will include a dynamic conversation between acclaimed director Rajkumar Hirani and talented actor Vijay Varma. Hirani is known for his work on some of Bollywood’s most beloved films, including *Munnabhai MBBS*, *3 Idiots*, and Dunki, starring Shah Rukh Khan. His films are not just box office hits but have also garnered critical acclaim for their storytelling, humor, and social relevance. Meanwhile, Vijay Varma, who has been making waves with his powerful performances, was recently seen in Netflix’s IC 814.

The discussion between Hirani and Varma, moderated by Shubhra Gupta, Film Critic for The Indian Express, is expected to delve deep into their artistic processes, personal philosophies, and the challenges and triumphs they’ve experienced in their respective careers. This session, titled ‘Creator x Creator,’ is poised to be a highlight of the event, offering a rare glimpse into the minds of two highly respected figures in the film industry. Fans of both cinema and storytelling are sure to appreciate the insights shared during this conversation.

The relaunch of SCREEN magazine is part of a broader rebranding of The Indian Express’s entertainment section, which has already established a substantial online presence. Attracting between 20 million and 45 million unique users monthly, the entertainment coverage by The Indian Express has been a trusted source for news, interviews, reviews, and insights from the world of cinema and television. With the relaunch of SCREEN, the section is expected to become even more dynamic, continuing to offer cutting-edge content about the Indian film industry.

The event is supported by various partners, including Ixigo, the official presenter, and e-Tail as the e-commerce partner. Other contributors include Smaaash as the entertainment partner, HEXO as the AI partner, Innate Essentials as the beauty partner, Pack TEK as the packaging partner, Stranger & Sons as the liquor partner, and Stehlen utensils for life as the dining partner. The wide array of sponsorships underscores the significance of SCREEN’s relaunch and its impact on the entertainment industry.

As SCREEN re-enters the media landscape, it is clear that its influence and legacy are still very much alive. Fans of Indian cinema, as well as industry insiders, are eagerly awaiting the magazine’s return and the fresh content it will offer in its new digital format. For decades, SCREEN has been synonymous with high-quality journalism in entertainment, and its relaunch marks a new chapter that blends the rich history of Indian cinema with the evolving digital age.

Shraddha Kapoor’s presence on the first digital cover represents both the magazine’s past and future—a nod to the golden era of Indian cinema while embracing the future of entertainment. Kapoor’s role in Stree 2 is a perfect reflection of this balance, as the film itself is a blend of traditional Bollywood storytelling with modern, genre-blending elements that appeal to today’s audiences.

As Stree 2 continues to break records and Shraddha Kapoor solidifies her place among Bollywood’s elite, the conversation at the SCREEN relaunch event is expected to offer fans a chance to hear directly from the star about her experience, her approach to acting, and the future of her career.

Meanwhile, the discussion between Rajkumar Hirani and Vijay Varma will bring together two distinct yet complementary voices from Indian cinema. Hirani’s thoughtful, socially conscious films and Varma’s edgy, diverse roles offer different perspectives on what it means to be a creator in today’s entertainment world.

The relaunch of SCREEN, with its combination of insightful discussions, star-studded appearances, and exciting digital content, is shaping up to be one of the most significant media events of the year. By embracing its rich heritage while also looking forward to the future of entertainment, SCREEN is poised to reclaim its place as a leading voice in Indian cinema journalism.

The mass bleaching of coral reefs that began in February 2023 has now become the most widespread on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). As of now, 77% of the world’s coral reef areas, spanning the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans, have been subjected to bleaching-level heat stress. This alarming trend is driven by climate change, which has caused ocean temperatures to soar to record and near-record levels worldwide.

“This event is still increasing in spatial extent and we’ve broken the previous record by more than 11% in about half the amount of time,” NOAA Coral Reef Watch coordinator Derek Manzello told Reuters. “This could potentially have serious ramifications for the ultimate response of these reefs to these bleaching events.”

The NOAA officially declared the global bleaching event in April 2024, marking the fourth such occurrence since 1998. The last record-breaking bleaching event, which occurred from 2014 to 2017, affected nearly 66% of the world’s reef areas. However, this latest event has already surpassed that figure.

Coral bleaching is triggered by the heat stress of warm ocean waters. When exposed to excessive heat, corals expel the algae living in their tissues, which are responsible for their vibrant colors. Without these algae, corals lose their color, becoming pale and vulnerable to starvation and disease. Though bleached corals are not immediately dead, they require cooler ocean temperatures for any chance of recovery.

Previous bleaching events have had devastating consequences. It is estimated that at least 14% of the world’s remaining corals died during the last two global bleaching events. Despite this current mass bleaching being the most widespread on record, affecting reefs in 74 countries and territories, NOAA has not yet declared it the “worst” event in terms of overall impact. The full extent of the damage will not be known until scientists conduct underwater assessments in the coming months and years to count the number of dead corals.

“It seems likely that it is going to be record-breaking in terms of impacts,” said Manzello. “We’ve never had a coral bleaching event this big before.”

The effects of this bleaching event have already been confirmed in several regions over the past six weeks, including Palau, Guam, and Israel. Heat stress also remains dangerously high in the Caribbean and South China Sea. As ocean temperatures remain elevated, there are concerns about the future of the world’s coral reefs.

In response to the growing crisis, scientists have organized a special emergency session on coral reefs. The meeting will be held at the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16) summit in Colombia later this month. During this session, world leaders and scientists will discuss strategies to prevent the functional extinction of corals. These discussions will include potential new protections and increased funding for coral conservation efforts.

“The meeting will bring together the global funding community to say we’re still in the fourth bleaching event, these are happening back to back …. What are we going to do about it?” said Emily Darling, who leads the Wildlife Conservation Society’s global coral reef conservation program.

In the past, scientists have projected that coral reefs would be in danger once global warming reached 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. At this point, they predicted that up to 90% of reefs could be lost. However, the latest bleaching records suggest that coral reefs may have already passed this tipping point, even though the planet has only warmed by 1.3 degrees Celsius so far. If true, this could have severe consequences for ocean ecosystems, subsistence fisheries, and tourism, as coral reefs play a vital role in the global economy.

According to a 2020 estimate by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, coral reefs contribute approximately $2.7 trillion in goods and services each year. This includes their role in protecting coastlines from storms, supporting marine biodiversity, and sustaining fisheries that millions of people rely on for food.

The current bleaching event has been exacerbated by El Niño, a natural climate pattern that can temporarily increase ocean temperatures. El Niño officially ended in May, but its effects have lingered, adding to the heat stress that coral reefs are enduring. Scientists are now watching for the potential onset of La Niña, a climate pattern that typically brings cooler ocean temperatures. Many hope that La Niña could provide a temporary reprieve for coral reefs, allowing them a chance to recover.

However, there are concerns that even La Niña may not be enough to reverse the damage. The year 2024 is on track to be the warmest year ever recorded, and some experts fear that high ocean temperatures may now be the new normal. If this is the case, coral reefs could be facing a future where they are in a near-constant state of bleaching.

Derek Manzello expressed this concern, warning that the world might be entering a period “where we’re more or less in a state of chronic global bleaching.”

As the world grapples with the consequences of climate change, coral reefs are emerging as one of the ecosystems most vulnerable to its effects. The unprecedented scale of this bleaching event highlights the urgent need for action to protect these critical ecosystems. The upcoming emergency session at COP16 will provide an opportunity for world leaders to address the crisis and take concrete steps to prevent further damage to coral reefs. Whether through increased funding, stronger protections, or global cooperation, the future of the world’s coral reefs may depend on the decisions made in the coming months.

In the meantime, scientists will continue to monitor the situation closely, gathering data and assessing the damage caused by the ongoing bleaching. As more regions report the effects of heat stress on their coral reefs, the scale of this crisis is becoming increasingly clear. It is now up to the global community to respond and work together to ensure that coral reefs do not disappear altogether from our oceans.

A recent study has revealed a surprising development in one of the coldest regions on Earth – a significant increase in vegetation cover across the Antarctic Peninsula. This unexpected greening is a direct result of global warming, according to scientists, and it marks a dramatic change in the region’s ecology. Over the past 40 years, the amount of plant life in this icy landscape has grown more than tenfold.

“The landscape is still almost entirely dominated by snow, ice, and rock, with only a tiny fraction colonized by plant life,” explained Thomas Roland, one of the study’s co-authors from the University of Exeter in the U.K. in a statement. “But that tiny fraction has grown dramatically – showing that even this vast and isolated ‘wilderness’ is being affected by anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change.”

Rising Temperatures and Frequent Heat Events

The researchers found that rising temperatures are at the heart of this transformation. The Antarctic Peninsula, in particular, has seen dramatic warming over the last 60 years. This increase has been most pronounced in the western regions of the Antarctic and along the peninsula itself. According to the study, the rate of warming in these areas is happening much faster than the global average.

Since 1950, temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula have increased by more than 5 degrees Fahrenheit. This significant rise stands in stark contrast to temperature changes in other parts of the world. The study, which was published in *Nature Geoscience*, emphasizes that the Antarctic Peninsula is warming at a rate that far exceeds the global average. The frequency of extreme heat events in the region has also become more common, further contributing to the shift in the environment.

Greening Trends Likely to Persist

The study’s authors suggest that this greening trend is unlikely to slow down and will probably continue in the coming years. The growing presence of plant life on the Antarctic Peninsula is altering the physical makeup of the region.

“Soil in Antarctica is mostly poor or non-existent, but this increase in plant life will add organic matter and facilitate soil formation – potentially paving the way for other plants to grow,” said study co-author Olly Bartlett from the University of Hertfordshire. This process could open the door for non-native and invasive plant species to take root in the region. Bartlett highlighted a potential concern that these species might be introduced by visitors to Antarctica, such as tourists or scientists, who could inadvertently carry seeds or other organic material with them.

Satellite Technology Reveals the Full Picture

The research team used advanced satellite imagery to track and measure the extent of the greening across the Antarctic Peninsula. These satellite images allowed the scientists to observe changes over a broad area and establish a clear trend of increasing vegetation.

Jasmine Lee, a conservation scientist from the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, U.K., commented on the significance of the research. Speaking to *Nature*, she said, “This research is really important.” While earlier studies have indicated that plant life in the region was responding to climate change, Lee noted that this is the first large-scale study to assess the entire area comprehensively.

The findings, according to Lee, provide a detailed understanding of how the region is transforming in response to rising global temperatures. Roland echoed these concerns, noting that the rapid expansion of greenery underscores the “unprecedented changes that humans are imposing on Earth’s climate.”

Long-Term Implications of a Greener Antarctica

The implications of the greening of Antarctica are still being studied, but researchers agree that the changes could have significant and far-reaching effects on the region’s ecology. The introduction of more organic matter, soil formation, and the potential for new plant species could fundamentally alter the balance of life in this fragile ecosystem.

At present, Antarctica remains predominantly covered by ice, snow, and rock, with only a small portion of its landscape supporting plant life. However, as climate change continues to reshape the continent, that fraction is likely to grow, bringing with it a host of ecological changes. One of the most concerning risks highlighted by the study is the possibility of invasive species establishing a foothold on the continent. Non-native plants and animals could potentially outcompete the region’s existing species, leading to unforeseen ecological consequences.

The study also raises concerns about the broader implications of global warming and how it is altering some of the most remote and previously untouched areas of the planet. Antarctica, long considered a frozen and isolated wilderness, is now undergoing profound changes as a result of human activities. The rapid greening of the region serves as a visible reminder of the impact of climate change on the Earth’s ecosystems, even in places once thought to be immune from such shifts.

The greening of the Antarctic Peninsula represents a significant and surprising development in the ongoing story of global climate change. The study’s findings highlight how even the coldest, most remote regions of the planet are being transformed by rising temperatures. As plant life continues to expand across the Antarctic landscape, scientists will continue to monitor the long-term ecological effects of this change and the potential risks posed by invasive species. While much of the continent remains frozen, the dramatic increase in vegetation serves as a stark reminder of the far-reaching consequences of human-induced climate change.

As fall unfolds, it’s already time to prepare for the upcoming winter, which promises to be quite different from last year’s El Niño-dominated season. This year, meteorologists predict the arrival of a weak La Niña, which could affect temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall across the United States.

La Niña is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Its effects are more pronounced during winter in the Northern Hemisphere, while its summer impact is less significant. This upcoming winter’s La Niña pattern is expected to shape weather trends across the country.

Looking Back: The Impact of Last Year’s Winter

Last year’s winter was the warmest on record for the Lower 48 states, largely due to the influence of El Niño, La Niña’s counterpart, combined with the effects of global warming driven by fossil fuel emissions. The warmth of last winter led to fewer heavy snow events in regions like the Northeast and Midwest, causing a snow drought, with snowfall totals missing by several feet in some areas.

As of now, La Niña hasn’t fully developed, but the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gives it a 60% chance of materializing by November. Once in place, La Niña is expected to linger throughout the winter and could last into early spring of the following year.

It’s important to note that while La Niña and El Niño play significant roles in shaping seasonal weather patterns, they are not the sole factors at play. However, they tend to have an outsized influence, especially when they are strong. This winter’s La Niña is forecasted to be relatively weak, which could lead to less predictable weather outcomes.

What to Expect: La Niña’s Potential Impact on Winter Weather

No two La Niña winters are exactly alike, but they often share similar temperature and precipitation trends. One of the key ways La Niña affects winter weather is through the jet stream, a fast-flowing river of air in the atmosphere that directs storms. During a La Niña winter, the jet stream tends to shift northward, moving stormy weather away from the southern United States and bringing it to the northern parts.

This is reflected in the CPC’s winter forecast for December through February, which suggests that the northern tier of the U.S. is likely to see wetter-than-normal conditions. This includes areas like the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, and parts of the interior Northeast. The Midwest, in particular, could benefit from this wet weather, as it would help alleviate ongoing drought conditions.

This winter’s pattern stands in stark contrast to last year’s, which saw wetter conditions in the South and drier weather in the North.

Snow Outlook: Will There Be More Snow This Year?

While an increase in precipitation is likely, more precipitation does not necessarily mean more snow. For snowfall to occur, temperatures both at the surface and in the atmosphere must be cold enough. Weak La Niña events, like the one predicted for this year, often allow for increased snowfall in the Northeast. In contrast, stronger La Niña events tend to limit snowfall due to warmer temperatures creeping up the East Coast.

The CPC’s latest winter temperature outlook isn’t promising for snow enthusiasts in the Northeast. It predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the southern U.S. and the East, which could result in more rain than snow in some winter storms in the East. Additionally, drier and warmer conditions are forecasted for the South, which could worsen drought conditions throughout the season.

In contrast, parts of the Midwest, the Plains, and the Rockies are expected to see temperatures closer to normal, while cooler-than-normal conditions are forecasted for the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Dakotas. The combination of cooler temperatures and increased precipitation could mean a significant snowpack in the Pacific Northwest, an area where snow is vital for both tourism in the winter and water supply during the warmer months.

California’s Forecast: Wet North, Dry South

La Niña winters typically bring wetter conditions to Northern California. However, the CPC’s forecast suggests that Northern California might see near-normal precipitation levels this season. La Niña has played a role in the extremely wet winters that have affected much of the state in the past, including the December 2022 to February 2023 period.

Southern California, on the other hand, is expected to be drier and warmer than usual, which is typical for La Niña winters. This region is in critical need of rain in the coming months to help shut down wildfire season. Wildfires could continue to be a major threat if the area doesn’t receive enough rainfall, as there is an abundance of dry fire fuels like grasses and brush that could sustain fires.

What’s at Stake This Winter

A weaker La Niña event, like the one currently forecasted, means that other weather and climate factors could interfere with La Niña’s typical patterns. As Emily Becker, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami, explained, “A weaker event makes it more likely that other weather and climate phenomena could play the role of spoiler.”

La Niña’s strength is a critical factor in determining how much influence it will have on the weather. Stronger La Niña events tend to create more consistent and predictable weather patterns, while weaker events lead to more variability. As Becker pointed out in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) latest La Niña/El Niño blog, a weaker La Niña could result in a wider range of weather outcomes.

The Bottom Line: Expect a Different Winter

In summary, the coming winter will likely be wetter in the northern U.S. and warmer in the South. Snowfall could be more frequent in the Pacific Northwest, the Rockies, and the Northeast, depending on how cold temperatures get. Southern regions, including California, may experience warmer and drier conditions, which could exacerbate wildfire risks if sufficient rain doesn’t arrive early in the season.

While La Niña is expected to be the dominant weather pattern this winter, its weak nature means that other climate forces could also shape the season’s weather. So, while some regions might see more snow than last year, others might experience continued dryness and warmth. As the season progresses, we’ll gain a clearer picture of how La Niña will influence the U.S. this winter, but for now, the focus is on cooler and wetter conditions in the North and warmer, drier weather in the South.

A groundbreaking study of Earth’s climate over the past 485 million years has revealed an extraordinary history of drastic temperature fluctuations, with hotter temperatures than scientists had previously recognized. This timeline offers an important perspective on the vast climate changes Earth has already endured and provides a stark warning about the unprecedented rate of warming driven by human activity today.

Published in the journal *Science* on Thursday, this comprehensive study is the most thorough reconstruction of Earth’s past temperatures ever produced. According to the researchers, the findings were made possible by combining over 150,000 fossil records with sophisticated climate models. This data highlights the close link between carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures, showing that for much of Earth’s history, the planet has been in a significantly warmer state.

At its most extreme, the Earth’s average temperature is thought to have reached 96.8 degrees Fahrenheit (36 degrees Celsius), a figure much higher than the 58.96 F (14.98 C) recorded in 2023. This new understanding of Earth’s climate history raises fresh concerns about modern climate change, said Emily Judd, a University of Arizona researcher and lead author of the study.

Judd explained that the timeline illustrates how rapid temperature changes were linked to many of Earth’s worst extinction events, including a mass extinction that wiped out nearly 90% of species, as well as the asteroid strike that wiped out the dinosaurs. “We know that these catastrophic events shift the landscape of what life looks like,” Judd said, adding that such drastic temperature changes have devastating consequences for life on Earth.

One of the most significant extinction events occurred 250 million years ago, when volcanic eruptions spewed carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere, causing the Earth’s temperature to rise by more than 18 degrees Fahrenheit (10 degrees Celsius) over approximately 50,000 years. This event wiped out 90% of species. “When the environment warms that fast, animals and plants can’t keep pace with it,” Judd explained.

Yet, no point in the last 485 million years has seen Earth’s climate shift as rapidly as it is now. “In the same way as a massive asteroid hitting the Earth, what we’re doing now is unprecedented,” she emphasized.

485 Million Years of Climate Volatility

The study spans nearly the entire Phanerozoic eon, a period beginning with the appearance of multicellular organisms and continuing to the present day. This era includes significant climate swings, from hot to cold and back again, with some periods witnessing rapid spikes in temperature. Jess Tierney, a co-author of the study and a climate scientist at the University of Arizona, said that past models have generally depicted more gradual shifts in climate, but the new research reveals more abrupt and extreme changes.

Like previous research, the new timeline highlights the key role of carbon dioxide in driving temperature changes. “Carbon dioxide is really that master dial,” Tierney said, adding that the findings underscore the importance of addressing modern emissions from fossil fuels.

At the beginning of the timeline, 485 million years ago, Earth was in a “hothouse” state with no polar ice caps and average temperatures exceeding 86 F (30 C). Over time, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels dropped, and temperatures gradually declined. Around 444 million years ago, the planet experienced a “coldhouse” state, marked by ice sheets at the poles and global temperatures plummeting by more than 18 F (10 C). This abrupt cooling triggered Earth’s first major extinction, with roughly 85% of marine species disappearing as sea levels fell and ocean chemistry changed.

A more drastic shift took place 251 million years ago, near the end of the Permian period. Volcanic eruptions unleashed huge quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, leading to a sudden rise in temperatures by about 18 F (10 C). The oceans became dangerously hot and lost oxygen, causing marine ecosystems to collapse. “We know it to be the worst extinction in the Phanerozoic,” Tierney noted. “By analogy, we should be worried about human warming because it’s so fast.”

A Sobering Reminder for Today’s Climate Crisis

The study’s findings also make clear that the relatively mild climate humans have experienced throughout history is an exception rather than the norm. For most of the Phanerozoic, Earth’s average temperatures exceeded 71.6 F (22 C), with little or no ice present at the poles. Coldhouse conditions like the present day have occurred only about 13% of the time during this period.

This is a sobering revelation, Judd noted. Although life has survived in much hotter climates than what humans are currently creating, humans evolved during one of the coldest periods in Earth’s history, with global temperatures averaging around 51.8 F (11 C). As a result, many aspects of modern life are tied to the relatively cool climate we’ve known. Without drastic action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, scientists predict that global temperatures could rise to 62.6 F (17 C) by the end of this century — temperatures not seen since the Miocene epoch, over 5 million years ago.

“We built our civilization around those geologic landscapes of an icehouse,” Judd explained. “So even though climate has been warmer, humans haven’t lived in a warmer climate, and there are a lot of consequences that humans face during this time.”

Reconstructing Earth’s Climate: A Decade of Research

The researchers’ work began almost ten years ago when curators at the Smithsonian were designing a new fossil exhibit for the National Museum of Natural History. The exhibit aimed to connect ancient climate shifts with those happening today, but the scientists quickly realized that a comprehensive timeline of Earth’s temperatures during the Phanerozoic didn’t exist.

Scott Wing, a co-author of the study and a Smithsonian curator, explained that the team wanted to create a more scientifically rigorous temperature record for this period. The researchers began by compiling a database of climate proxies — fossil evidence that indicates past temperatures. For instance, the chemical makeup of extinct creatures’ teeth and ancient algae fats can provide clues about ocean temperatures at different times.

Despite collecting over 150,000 data points, the team still faced challenges. Most of the evidence came from marine environments, which cover only 70% of Earth’s surface, and the data offered only snapshots of temperatures at specific points in time. Even with this vast dataset, Judd said the process was akin to “trying to assemble a jigsaw puzzle with only 1 percent of the pieces.”

To fill in the gaps, the team used climate models and a technique called data assimilation, which merges real-world evidence with simulations to generate more accurate predictions. “It’s a way of mathematically integrating those handful of puzzle pieces with those possible pictures and finding out, what’s the picture those pieces belong to?” Judd said.

A Warning for the Future

While the new temperature timeline offers unprecedented insights into Earth’s past, it also raises questions. If average global temperatures exceeded 35 degrees Celsius during some periods, certain regions could have been much hotter. Wing pointed out that even the most heat-tolerant modern species might struggle to survive in such conditions. “It’s an indication of all the things we don’t know about how greenhouse climates work,” he said.

Michael Mann, a prominent climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, praised the study for its ambition but expressed caution about some of its findings. “I am skeptical about the specific, quantitative conclusions,” Mann said, suggesting that the study might overestimate future warming.

Wing acknowledged that more research is needed. The team hopes to refine their timeline by adding more land-based data and to use their findings to improve models of future climate change. For now, Judd hopes the research will serve as a wake-up call, reminding humanity of the urgent need to act before climate change wreaks havoc on ecosystems and societies.

“My concern is what human life looks like. What it means to survive,” Judd concluded.

A recent study published in Nature reveals that India is responsible fora significant portion of global plastic pollution, contributing to about 9.3 million tonnes (mt) annually. This figure highlights India’s outsized role in the plastic pollution crisis, with the country burning 5.8 mt of plastic and releasing 3.5 mt into the environment each year. India’s contribution surpasses that of other major polluters, such as Nigeria (3.5 mt), Indonesia (3.4 mt), and China (2.8 mt).

Unmanaged Plastic Waste and Its Impact

The research was conducted by scientists from the University of Leeds, including Joshua W. Cottom, Ed Cook, and Costas A. Velis. It estimates that about 251 mt of plastic waste is generated globally each year, enough to fill 200,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools. Approximately one-fifth of this plastic waste, 52.1 mt, is emitted into the environment. The authors differentiate between “managed” and “unmanaged” waste. Managed waste is collected by municipal bodies and either recycled or disposed of in landfills, though most of it ends up in the latter.

Unmanaged waste, on the other hand, poses a more severe threat. This waste is either burned in uncontrolled fires or left as debris, polluting various parts of the world, including remote locations like Mount Everest and the Mariana Trench. Open burning of plastic releases toxic gases such as carbon monoxide, which have been linked to heart disease, respiratory problems, cancer, and neurological disorders.

According to the study, about 43% of unmanaged waste, or 22.2 mt, takes the form of unburned debris, while the remaining 29.9 mt is burned either in dumpsites or locally. This means that a significant portion of plastic pollution involves open burning, which exacerbates the global pollution crisis by releasing harmful pollutants into the air.

Global Divide in Plastic Pollution

A key finding of the study is the disparity between plastic pollution in the Global North and the Global South. The researchers noted that plastic waste emissions are highest in countries located in Southern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeastern Asia. The study points out that approximately 69% of global plastic pollution, about 35.7 mt per year, is produced by 20 nations, none of which are classified as High-Income Countries (HICs).

Despite the fact that HICs, mostly in the Global North, generate more plastic waste than their Southern counterparts, they are not among the top 90 polluters. This is because these nations have near-total collection coverage and controlled disposal systems in place. In contrast, open burning is the predominant method of waste management in the Global South, with the exception of Sub-Saharan Africa, where a larger share of pollution comes from unmanaged debris.

However, researcher Costas Velis cautions against blaming the Global South for the plastic pollution crisis. He explained, “We shouldn’t put the blame, any blame, on the Global South… [or] praise ourselves about what we do in the Global North in any way,” adding that waste disposal capabilities largely depend on government infrastructure and resources. The lack of adequate public infrastructure for waste management in many developing countries results in higher rates of open burning and debris pollution.

Ongoing Debate Over Plastic Pollution

This study is released at a critical time, as negotiations for the world’s first legally binding international treaty on plastic pollution are ongoing. In 2022, the UN Environmental Assembly agreed to create such a treaty, which many experts believe could be the most significant environmental agreement since the Paris Climate Accord of 2015. The treaty is expected to be finalized by the end of 2024, but reaching a consensus on its contents has proven challenging.

There are two main factions in the debate over the treaty. On one side are fossil fuel-producing nations and industry groups, which see plastic pollution primarily as a waste management problem. These countries argue that improving waste management infrastructure, particularly in the Global South, is the key to mitigating pollution. On the other side are countries in the European Union and Africa, which advocate for stronger measures, including phasing out single-use plastics and curbing production.

The so-called “High Ambition Coalition,” comprising countries from the EU and Africa, contends that managing plastic waste alone is not a viable solution. Given the immense volume of plastic waste being generated, the complexity of recycling, and the economics involved, they argue that limiting production is essential. A study published in *Science Advances* in April 2024 backs this position, demonstrating a direct relationship between plastic production and pollution levels. The study found that a 1% increase in plastic production results in a corresponding 1% increase in plastic pollution.

Criticism of the Study

While the recent research has garnered praise from certain industry groups, it has also faced criticism. Some environmental advocates argue that focusing too much on waste management risks ignoring the root cause of the problem: the unchecked production of plastics.

Neil Tangri, senior director of science and policy at GAIA, a global advocacy network working toward zero waste and environmental justice, told The Associated Press, “It risks us losing our focus on the upstream and saying, hey now all we need to do is manage the waste better. It’s necessary but it’s not the whole story.” Tangri and others argue that without addressing the issue of plastic production, any efforts to improve waste management will fall short.

Despite these criticisms, the plastics industry has responded positively to the study. Chris Jahn, council secretary of the International Council of Chemical Associations, emphasized the importance of improving waste collection and management. In a statement, he said, “This study underscores that uncollected and unmanaged plastic waste is the largest contributor to plastic pollution.”

Conclusion

The study sheds light on the growing issue of plastic pollution and its global distribution, showing that countries in the Global South are bearing the brunt of the crisis, despite generating less plastic waste than wealthier nations. While improving waste management systems is essential, critics argue that this alone will not solve the problem. As treaty negotiations continue, the world is faced with the challenge of balancing production limits with waste management to effectively combat the escalating plastic pollution crisis.

Struggling at Sea: The Plight of Indian Fisher workers Amid Climate Change and Government Policies

Warming seas from climate change means that Indian fisher workers often travel illegally into international territorial waters in search of a good catch and find themselves jailed and their boats confiscated, driving their families into poverty.

NEW DELHI, Aug 28 2024 (IPS) – Climate change forces millions of India’s fishworkers to venture beyond the country’s exclusive economic zone into the perilous high seas.

In their search for a better catch, approximately 4 million of India’s 28 million fishworkers often face increased risks of capture by neighboring countries.

“Earlier, fish used to come close to the shore, but now we have to go farther out to find them. Our fishing season lasts about a month, and it takes several days just to reach our fishing spot. This time keeps increasing with each season, and lately, the number of days we spend at sea has doubled,” Jivan R. Jungi, a fishworker leader from Gujarat, India, told IPS.

It has not only made the lives of fishworkers challenging, but it also affects their families, accounting for about 16 million people, according to official data.

India, a South Asian country with a 7,500-kilometer coastline, relies on aquatic products such as fish and shrimp for its national income.

According to a recent report by the Indian Express, India exported about 17,81,602 metric tons (MT) of seafood, generating a substantial revenue of ₹60,523.89 crore (USD 7.38 billion) in FY 2023–24.

“The government does not take care of us at all, despite the high profit margins in the fishing industry. They fail to provide even the basic benefits that the government can do, like fire safety,” Jungi told IPS. “Our boats are made of wood and run on diesel, which increases the risk of fire. We’ve been requesting safety measures or compensation for years, but nothing has been done, even as we face the growing challenges of climate change.”

Their plight is exacerbated by the Indian government’s policies, including a recent provision in the National Fisheries Policy 2020, which promotes “deep-sea fishing and fishing in areas beyond the national jurisdiction to tap under-exploited resources.” This policy aims to generate more revenue for the nation but does so at the expense of the fishworkers.

Temperature Rises Compare With Hiroshima Bomb

A report by Down to Earth, quoting a study by Science Direct, indicates that the Indian Ocean could experience a temperature rise of 1.7–3.8 degrees Celsius between 2020 and 2100.

To illustrate the severity, Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, is quoted as saying: “The projected increase in heat content is comparable to adding the energy of one Hiroshima atomic bomb explosion every second, continuously, for an entire decade.”

Fishworkers along the entire Indian coastline face mounting challenges, leading to conflicts with neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Saudi Arabia.

According to India’s Ministry of External Affairs, between 2020 and 2022, more than 2,600 Indian fishworkers were imprisoned in ten countries across the Indian Ocean for maritime border incursions. The highest number of arrests occurred in Pakistan (1,060), followed by Saudi Arabia (564) and Sri Lanka (501).

At Sea, In Danger

The issue of maritime boundaries and fishing rights goes deeper, often causing conflicts among fishworkers from different countries. When fishworkers cross into another country’s waters and catch fish, the local fishworkers claim ownership of the catch, leading to disputes.

This tension among fishworkers can have severe consequences. Moreover, after the arrest, instead of being treated as civilian prisoners, they sometimes face dire conditions, including the risk of death in foreign prisons.

As reported by the Ministry of External Affairs, nine Indian fishermen died in Pakistani jails over the past five years. In 2022, an Indian fisherman named Maria Jesind reportedly had been killed in an Indonesian prison.

This situation is too familiar to fishworkers, particularly those from India and Pakistan, who have long been caught in the political crossfire between their governments.

Historically, the lack of a clear demarcation line has forced fishworkers deeper into the sea without adequate security. As a result, both countries have been arresting fishworkers from each other’s territories for years now.

Last year, 499 fishworkers were released by Pakistan on July 3, 2023, after numerous attempts at their release by civil society organizations. These fishworkers, charged with violating the Passport Act for trespassing on water borders, are imprisoned after court trials, usually receiving sentences of a few months. The official sentence is typically six months, but the release of these fishworkers is rarely prompt, with many spending more than five years.

“But several have died. Balo Jetah Lal died in a Pakistani prison in May 2023; Bichan Kumar alias Vipan Kumar (died April 4, 2023); Soma Deva (died May 8, 2023); and Zulfiqar from Kerala (died May 6, 2023) in Karachi prison,” Jungi says, adding, “Vinod Laxman Kol died on March 17 in Karachi and his mortal remains were brought to his village in Maharashtra on May 1, 2024.”

While the arrests and deaths affect the families of the fishworkers, they also have a broader impact on the community, challenging their way of life and livelihood.

Fishworkers now demand that they not be arrested or shot at, but rather pushed back if they cross maritime boundaries.

After their release, the fishworkers struggle to make ends meet because the arresting government rarely returns their boats, resulting in a lifelong debt of around Rs. 50–60 lakhs (USD 5–6 million) per boat. As a result, the workers now demand that their boats be returned and that the government ensure that the families of arrested fishworkers receive support through policies and schemes, including educational opportunities for their children, to prevent them from falling into extreme poverty.

IPS UN Bureau Report

The preliminary forecast for the Winter of 2024/2025 is influenced significantly by a weak La Niña phase. This phase is expected to alter the typical jet stream patterns over North America and the Pacific Ocean, affecting weather conditions across the globe. A potentially weaker-than-normal Polar Vortex is also being closely monitored for the early part of the winter season.

Global weather systems are driven by a combination of large-scale and small-scale factors, with the weak La Niña event in the Pacific being the primary driver this year. The Polar Vortex, which typically becomes more active during winter, will also play a significant role in determining weather patterns.

In previous La Niña winters, a blocking high-pressure system over Greenland and the North Pacific has been observed, with low pressure and colder air extending from western Canada into the United States. In Europe, a cutoff low-pressure area often brings cold and snowy conditions to central regions.

Emergence of a Weak La Niña

La Niña, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is the cold phase of the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) cycle. The ENSO cycle oscillates between La Niña and El Niño, the latter being the warm phase.

Recent data from NASA’s mid-August ocean anomaly analysis reveals colder-than-normal surface waters in the central and eastern ENSO regions. These cold anomalies, shaped by strong easterly trade winds, are indicative of the early development of a La Niña phase.

Forecasts from the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) suggest that these cooler anomalies will persist through the autumn and winter of 2024/2025. The forecasted cooling remains within the La Niña threshold, though it appears weaker than earlier predictions.

Despite a relatively weak La Niña event, this oceanic condition will still influence the positioning of the jet stream during winter, affecting weather patterns across North America and beyond.

Winter and the Polar Jet Stream

Historical data from past La Niña winters provides valuable insights into how such conditions might affect the upcoming winter. Each ENSO phase exerts a substantial influence on tropical rainfall, pressure patterns, and the energy exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. The interaction between these factors drives global weather patterns, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere during winter.

The circulation pattern during La Niña typically features a strong high-pressure system in the North Pacific and low-pressure systems over Canada and the northern United States. A similar low-pressure area is often observed over southwestern Europe. This pattern tends to push the jet stream southward, bringing colder air and winter storms from the polar regions into the northern and northwestern United States.

As the jet stream shifts, colder and wetter conditions become more frequent in the northern United States, while the southern states often experience warmer and drier weather. The cold air is more accessible to the northern regions, increasing snowfall potential when moisture is present.

Analysis of the average temperature and snowfall patterns during weak La Niña years suggests that this winter could see increased snowfall in the northwestern United States, the Midwest, and parts of northeastern United States and eastern Canada.

Winter 2024/2025 – ECMWF First Forecast

The first look at the winter forecast for 2024/2025 involves three key seasonal models: the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), the CanSIPS (Canadian Seasonal and Interannual Prediction System), and the NMME. These models provide an average picture of weather patterns over the three meteorological winter months (December, January, and February).

The ECMWF model indicates a prominent La Niña high-pressure system over the North Pacific and a low-pressure area over Canada. This configuration pushes the jet stream into the northern and northwestern United States, while in Europe, the jet stream is nudged further north due to the high-pressure system.

The ECMWF model also shows a broad high-pressure area covering the tropical Pacific, confirming La Niña’s influence on surface-level circulation and atmospheric conditions. As a result, Europe is expected to experience warmer-than-normal temperatures, particularly in regions influenced by the high-pressure system.

In terms of precipitation, Europe is likely to see drier conditions in the west due to the high-pressure anomaly, while the rest of the continent may experience above-average precipitation. Over North America, the ECMWF forecast predicts colder surface temperatures in western Canada and warmer-than-normal conditions in the southern United States.

A closer look at the January 2025 forecast reveals a potential break in the above-average temperature anomalies, indicating a possible route for cold air outbreaks in the central and Midwest regions of the United States.

ECMWF Winter 2024/2025 Snowfall Forecast

The ECMWF snowfall forecast for the winter of 2024/2025 shows below-average snowfall across much of Europe, with the exception of Scandinavia, where increased snowfall is expected due to the influence of a local low-pressure system.

In North America, the forecast indicates below-average snowfall for most of the United States, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast, regions that typically receive more snow during weak La Niña winters. However, more snowfall is anticipated in the western and northwestern United States and parts of central and eastern Canada. It’s important to note that this forecast does not yet include data for February, which could alter the overall snowfall outlook.

CanSIPS Winter Season Forecast

The CanSIPS model, developed by the Canadian Meteorological Centre, supports the weak La Niña pattern, with a high-pressure zone over the North Pacific and a low-pressure area over Canada. Additionally, a high-pressure area is forecast over northwestern Europe.

The temperature forecast for Europe suggests warm anomalies across much of the continent, with a belt of normal to colder temperatures in central regions due to easterly flows outside the high-pressure zone. In North America, the CanSIPS model predicts above-normal temperatures across the southern United States and colder-than-normal conditions in southern Canada and parts of the northern United States.

For February 2025, the CanSIPS model shows cold air anomalies extending further south into the northern United States, suggesting a slower start to winter across the central and eastern regions, with more snowfall potential in the latter part of the season.

The precipitation forecast from CanSIPS mirrors that of the ECMWF, with drier-than-normal conditions expected in much of Europe and the southern United States, while more precipitation is forecast for the northwestern United States.

NMME Winter 2024/2025 Weather Forecast

The NMME forecast, which combines multiple North American models, reinforces the expected weak La Niña pattern with a strong high-pressure system in the North Pacific and a low-pressure system over Canada. This pattern pushes the jet stream down over the northern United States, resulting in normal to colder temperatures in these regions, while warmer temperatures are forecast for central, eastern, and southern parts of the United States.

The NMME precipitation forecast indicates wetter conditions in the northwestern United States and the Midwest, while drier conditions are expected in the southern United States. Canada and the northern United States may also see increased precipitation, in line with a typical weak La Niña winter.

Overall, the Winter of 2024/2025 is expected to feature a “double character” across the United States, with colder conditions in the north and warmer weather in the south, as influenced by the weak La Niña phase.

Hundreds of California sea lions have taken over San Carlos Beach in Monterey, California, leading local officials to close the area to the public. In response to the unexpected influx of marine mammals, caution tape has been set up around the beach, although this has not deterred crowds from gathering to witness the unusual spectacle. Visitors continue to flock to the beach, snapping photos of the sea lions as they rest on the sand and frolic in the water.

Sea lions, which are a type of eared seal, are a common sight along various beaches up and down the California coast. However, local residents have noted that they have never seen such a large number of these animals congregating in Monterey before. This gathering has sparked both curiosity and concern among locals and experts alike.

Lisa Uttal, a marine biologist affiliated with the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary, explained that the reason behind the sea lions’ choice of San Carlos Beach is not entirely clear. However, she speculated that the rich diversity of food available in the area’s ecosystem might be a key factor in attracting the animals. She also pointed out that nearly all the sea lions currently on the beach are male.

“They migrate up here down from Ventura and the Channel Islands … They are incredibly mobile. They’re usually chasing the food, and because Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary is so productive out here, the productivity is really rich,” Uttal stated. She added that the sea lions are expected to remain at San Carlos Beach for about three to four weeks.

The presence of these marine mammals at San Carlos Beach has brought attention to the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972, which provides protections for sea lions and other marine species. According to Marge Brigadier, a volunteer with the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary’s Bay Net program, this law prohibits any actions that would alter the sea lions’ natural behavior. This means that getting too close to the animals or doing anything that might scare them away is against the law.

“People just need to think about how they would feel if they were resting on their bed taking a nap and something big kept coming and chasing them out of the house,” Brigadier commented, drawing a parallel between human and animal behavior to emphasize the importance of respecting the sea lions’ space.

With their arrival in such large numbers, the sea lions have created a unique situation at San Carlos Beach. The community, while intrigued by the rare event, is also being reminded of the importance of maintaining a respectful distance to avoid disturbing these marine animals. As these sea lions take a temporary residence at the beach, both officials and wildlife experts are closely monitoring the situation, ensuring that the necessary precautions are in place to protect both the animals and the public.

On Sunday, July 21, the global temperature soared to unprecedented levels, marking it as the hottest day ever recorded. According to preliminary data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global average surface air temperature hit 17.09 degrees Celsius (62.76 degrees Fahrenheit). This slight increase surpassed the previous record of 17.08 degrees Celsius (62.74 degrees Fahrenheit) set last July.

The past week has seen intense heatwaves affecting vast regions of the United States, Europe, and Russia. The Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed to Reuters that the new record set on Sunday breaks the daily temperature record documented last year, with their records tracing back to 1940.

In 2022, there were four consecutive days from July 3 through July 6 where the global temperature records were broken. This phenomenon was largely attributed to climate change fueled by the relentless burning of fossil fuels, which caused extreme heat across the Northern Hemisphere.

Notably, every month since June 2023 has been the hottest on record for that month compared to previous years, according to Copernicus. This streak now extends to 13 consecutive months.

Looking ahead, some scientists predict that 2024 might surpass 2023 as the hottest year on record. This speculation is based on the ongoing impact of climate change and the El Nino natural weather phenomenon, which concluded in April but had already contributed to the escalating temperatures this year.

The global temperature milestone reached on July 21 underscores the pressing issue of climate change and its role in driving extreme weather conditions. The consistent trend of rising temperatures over the past year, coupled with the end of the El Nino event, points to the likelihood of even hotter years ahead.

Human-caused climate change is having profound impacts on the planet, including altering the length of a day, according to recent research. This effect is due to polar ice melt caused by global warming, which changes Earth’s rotation speed, increasing each day’s length. This trend is expected to accelerate throughout the century as humans continue to emit planet-heating pollution, according to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The changes in day length are minute, amounting to milliseconds each day, but they have significant implications for the high-tech, interconnected systems we depend on, such as GPS. “This is a testament to the gravity of ongoing climate change,” said Surendra Adhikari, a geophysicist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and one of the report’s authors.

The length of a day on Earth is determined by the speed of Earth’s rotation, influenced by numerous factors including processes in the planet’s fluid core, the melting of massive glaciers since the last ice age, and the current melting of polar ice due to climate change. Historically, the moon has been the primary factor, gradually lengthening the day by a few milliseconds per century by exerting a gravitational pull that causes ocean bulges, slowing Earth’s rotation.

Previous research has linked polar ice melt to longer days, but this new study indicates that global warming is a more significant factor than previously thought. “In the past, the impact of climate change on time has not been so dramatic,” said Benedikt Soja, a study author and assistant professor of space geodesy at ETH Zurich. However, he notes that this is changing, with climate change potentially becoming the dominant factor over the moon if current pollution levels persist.

As humans warm the planet, glaciers and ice sheets melt, and the resulting meltwater flows from the poles toward the equator. This redistribution of mass changes Earth’s shape, flattening it at the poles and causing it to bulge at the equator, which in turn slows its rotation. This process is akin to a spinning ice skater extending their arms to slow their spin.

The international team of scientists examined a 200-year period from 1900 to 2100, using observational data and climate models to assess how climate change has influenced day length in the past and to predict future impacts. They found that climate change’s impact on day length has significantly increased. In the 20th century, sea level rise caused by climate change altered the length of a day by 0.3 to 1 millisecond. In the past two decades, the increase has been 1.33 milliseconds per century, a rate significantly higher than any time in the previous century.

If emissions continue to rise, warming the oceans and accelerating ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica, the rate of change is expected to increase dramatically. The report predicts that if emissions are not curbed, climate change could lengthen the day by 2.62 milliseconds by the end of the century, surpassing the natural effects of the moon.

“In barely 200 years, we will have altered the Earth’s climate system so much that we are witnessing its impact on the very way Earth spins,” Adhikari told CNN. While a few extra milliseconds per day might go unnoticed by humans, it affects technology. Accurate timekeeping is crucial for GPS and other communication and navigation systems, which rely on highly precise atomic time.

Since the late 1960s, the world has used coordinated universal time (UTC) to set time zones, relying on atomic clocks but keeping pace with Earth’s rotation. This means “leap seconds” must occasionally be added or subtracted to maintain alignment with Earth’s rotation.

Some studies have suggested a link between increased day length and an uptick in earthquakes, according to Mostafa Kiani Shahvandi, a study author and geoscientist at ETH Zurich. However, this connection remains speculative, requiring much more research to establish any definitive link.

A paper on the same topic published in March found that while climate change was increasingly slowing Earth’s rotation, processes in Earth’s core could counteract this by speeding it up, thus shortening day length. “What we have done is to go a little bit further and re-estimate these trends,” said Shahvandi, noting that their study found the influence of the molten core was outweighed by that of climate change.

Duncan Agnew, a professor of geophysics at the University of California San Diego and author of the March study, stated that the new study aligns with his research, extending its results further into the future and considering more climate scenarios. Jacqueline McCleary, an assistant professor of physics at Northeastern University not involved in the study, said the research contributes to a longstanding debate about the role of climate change in altering day length.

While there is now general consensus that climate change will have a “net lengthening effect on the day,” McCleary told CNN, there has been uncertainty about which processes will dominate this century. This study concludes that climate change is now the second most dominant factor. “We have to consider that we are now influencing Earth’s orientation in space so much that we are dominating effects that have been in action for billions of years,” said Soja.

The profound impacts of human activity on the planet are increasingly evident, not only in the environment but in the fundamental mechanisms of Earth’s rotation. This research underscores the far-reaching consequences of climate change, emphasizing the urgent need to address the root causes of global warming.

The Juneau Icefield in Alaska, encompassing over 1,000 glaciers, is experiencing an accelerated melt. A recent study reveals that the icefield’s snow-covered areas are shrinking 4.6 times faster than in the 1980s. Researchers have meticulously tracked snow levels since 1948, extending data back to the 18th century. The icefield has been steadily shrinking since its peak after the Little Ice Age around 1850, but the melting rate significantly increased about a decade ago, according to the study published in Nature Communications.

Bethan Davies, a glaciologist at Newcastle University and the study’s lead author, explained, “What’s happening is that as the climate is changing, we’re getting shorter winters and longer summers. We’re having more melt, longer melt season.” This accelerated melting is contributing to a substantial flow of ice into the water, averaging about 50,000 gallons per second, according to study co-author Mauri Pelto, a professor of environmental science at Nichols College.

“In fact, glacier shrinkage in Alaska from the year 2000 to the year 2020, we’re losing more ice in Alaska than anywhere else,” Davies added. The study highlights a stark increase in the number of glaciers disappearing: only four Juneau Icefield glaciers vanished between 1948 and 2005, but 64 disappeared between 2005 and 2019. Many of these glaciers were unnamed due to their small size, but notable larger glaciers like Antler Glacier have completely vanished.

Alaska climatologist Brian Brettschneider, not involved in the study, emphasized the alarming acceleration, warning of a “death spiral” for the thinning icefield. An icefield, different from an ice sheet, is a collection of glaciers. Ice sheets cover entire continents, with only two remaining in Greenland and Antarctica. The Mendenhall Glacier, a prominent glacier in the Juneau Icefield, is a popular tourist destination. The Arctic, including Alaska, is warming four times faster than the global average, with Alaska warming by 2.6 degrees (1.5 degrees Celsius) since 1980, according to federal weather data.

Pelto, who first visited the Juneau Icefield in 1981 aiming to join the U.S. ski team, has studied it ever since, forsaking competitive skiing for research. Reflecting on the changes, he said, “When you go there the changes from year-to-year are so dramatic that it just hits you over the head.” He noted the ease of accessing the glaciers back in 1981, “In 1981, it wasn’t too hard to get on and off the glaciers. You just hike up and you could ski to the bottom or hike right off the end of these glaciers.” Nowadays, melted snow forms lakes at the edges, and crevasses make skiing difficult.

The icefield now resembles a staircase of bare rocks. White snow and ice reflect sunlight, but dark rocks absorb it, warming the ground and accelerating the melting in a feedback loop. The critical factor is the snow elevation line; below this line, summer can melt the snow, while above it, snow remains year-round. Pelto explained that this snow line keeps moving upward, increasing the areas prone to melting.

Juneau’s flat icefield shape makes it particularly vulnerable to tipping points. Davies noted, “The shape of Juneau’s icefield, which is rather flat, makes it vulnerable to particular tipping points because once the snow line moves up, large areas are suddenly more prone to melt.” Pelto emphasized, “The tipping point is when that snow line goes above your entire icefield, ice sheet, ice glacier, whichever one. And so for the Juneau icefield, 2019, 2018, showed that you are not that far away from that tipping point.”

Despite the significant melting, the Juneau Icefield’s complete melt wouldn’t drastically affect global sea levels, though it remains a crucial tourist and cultural site. Julienne Stroeve, an ice scientist at the University of Manitoba, not part of the study, remarked, “It is worrisome because in the future the Arctic is going to be transformed beyond contemporary recognition. It’s just another sign of a large transformation in all the ice components (permafrost, sea ice, land ice) that communities depend on.”

The study team compiled their findings using satellite images, airplane overflights, archived photographs, and historical local measurements, creating a detailed long-term picture of the icefield’s melting. Michael Zemp, head of the World Glacier Monitoring Service, and five other outside experts affirmed the study’s findings, with Zemp stating, “We need urgent and tangible actions to save at least some of the remaining ice.”

Pelto, reflecting on his decades of study, pondered, “We’re 40 years from when I first saw the glacier. And so, 40 years from now, what is it going to look like? I do think by then the Juneau icefield will be past the tipping point.” The future of the Juneau Icefield appears bleak, with accelerated melting trends posing significant environmental challenges.

Global temperatures continue to break records month after month, prompting concerns from scientists and climate policymakers about surpassing the warming target established during the historic Paris 2015 climate talks.

The Copernicus agency of the European Union recently announced that May had been the hottest on record, marking the 12th consecutive month of record highs. Similarly, the World Meteorological Organization has projected a nearly 50% chance that average global temperatures between 2024 and 2028 will exceed the desired warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius agreed upon in the Paris accords.

Moreover, a group of 57 scientists reported in the journal Earth System Science Data that the Earth warmed at a slightly faster rate in 2023 compared to 2022.

Climate scientists, however, are not surprised by these developments, as they align with their long-standing predictions based on the accumulation of carbon dioxide resulting from increased fossil fuel usage. In 2023, atmospheric levels of heat-trapping gases, particularly carbon dioxide, reached historic highs, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with the third-highest increase in 65 years of recordkeeping.

The repercussions of these shattered records translate into heightened human suffering. Climate change induced by human activity has led to erratic weather patterns, more frequent and unpredictable storms, and prolonged heatwaves. For instance, an intense heatwave in Asia this spring led to school closures in the Philippines, fatalities in Thailand, and record temperatures in several countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Maldives, and Myanmar. In India, weeks of scorching heatwaves last month resulted in school closures and loss of life.

While exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold may not spell immediate catastrophe, scientists warn of worsening conditions. Previous United Nations assessments indicate that significant ecological changes are more likely to occur between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius of warming, including the eventual disappearance of coral reefs, Arctic sea ice, and certain plant and animal species. Additionally, extreme weather events are expected to intensify, resulting in more casualties and infrastructure damage.

Jennifer Francis, a scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts, emphasized that reaching the Paris threshold does not signify a sudden surge in the impacts already being observed.

Addressing these challenges requires a concerted effort to phase out fossil fuel usage, according to climate scientists. The combustion of fossil fuels—such as oil, gas, and coal—remains the primary driver of human-induced global warming. Francis stressed the need for greenhouse gas concentrations to stabilize to prevent further temperature records from being broken and to mitigate the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

While renewable energy sources have seen significant growth, there is a pressing need for accelerated expansion. Efforts to improve efficiency are underway across various sectors, including household heating, cooking methods, and cement production. However, scientists emphasize the urgency of adapting to these changes.

A 4.8 magnitude earthquake struck New Jersey on Friday morning, causing ripples of concern from Baltimore to New York City. This seismic event, rare for the area, left residents shaken but also prompted experts to reassure the public about the likelihood of future earthquakes in the eastern U.S.

Angie Lux, a seismologist at the University of California Berkeley Seismology Lab, stated to TIME, “There’s no clear trend that there are more earthquakes happening.” Data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reveals that since 1950, roughly 40 earthquakes with magnitudes of 3 or higher have occurred within 500 km of Friday’s earthquake epicenter near Whitehouse Station, N.J. The last earthquake of comparable magnitude in the region struck in 2011, causing widespread tremors across the East Coast.

Lingsen Meng, an associate professor of geophysics at the University of California Los Angeles, emphasized that earthquakes are infrequent along the East Coast and advised people to remain calm. He noted, “Small earthquakes occur much more often than big ones.” The most significant earthquakes historically recorded on the East Coast were the 1755 Cape Ann earthquake in Boston and a 7.2 quake in Charleston, S.C. in 1886, which Meng described as “much bigger than the ones we have today.”

Sarah McBride, a research social scientist at USGS, mentioned in a press briefing that at least two aftershocks related to Friday’s earthquake had been recorded. However, she added that the likelihood of an aftershock with a magnitude of five or greater in the coming weeks was only 3%.

Regarding the cause of the earthquake, USGS clarified that it did not occur at an active fault. A spokesperson explained, “There are dozens of older inactive faults that formed millions of years ago. And under the current stresses from tectonic plates moving, those faults can be intermittently reactivated.” Further research is required to fully understand the event’s origin.

Meng reassured the public about potential infrastructure damage, stating, “Building damage usually doesn’t happen until [magnitude] six or seven. So [today’s earthquake] is not going to cause any significant damage unless the building is really inadequate.” He did, however, acknowledge a potential concern regarding seismic waves traveling across the East Coast, which can be felt more widely due to differences in the Earth’s crust. Meng explained, “East Coast seismic waves tend to travel much longer distances. They don’t attenuate or decay as fast.” Nonetheless, he emphasized that significant earthquakes are rare in the East Coast, thus the likelihood of severe damage or building collapse remains low.

How fortunate are the inhabitants of Carbondale, Illinois? According to celestial mechanics, a total solar eclipse should occur at any given location on Earth’s surface roughly once every 375 years on average. However, the 30,000 residents of this Midwestern city might find this statistic amusing, as they are gearing up to witness the Moon obscure the Sun’s disk for the second time in just seven years.

Moreover, the upcoming eclipse on April 8th promises to surpass the spectacle of the 2017 event. Lasting for an impressive 4 minutes and 9 seconds, the sky will plunge into darkness, nearly doubling the duration of the previous eclipse.

Anticipation is building as up to 200,000 people are expected to converge on prime viewing spots in southern Illinois for what has been dubbed “The Great American Eclipse, Part II.” However, the excitement extends beyond Illinois, as the eclipse’s path stretches from Mexico’s Pacific coast to Canada’s Atlantic seaboard, promising a blockbuster event.

In contrast to the 2017 eclipse, which traversed sparsely populated regions, the 2024 event will pass over major urban areas in the United States such as Dallas, Indianapolis, Cleveland, and Buffalo. Dr. Kelly Korreck, the eclipse program manager at NASA, highlighted the significance, stating, “This is going to be the most populated eclipse in the US, with 31.5 million people able to just walk outside of their homes to experience it.”

NASA is gearing up for the event with a series of experiments, including launching rockets into the Moon’s shadow to study its effects on the Earth’s atmosphere and deploying instrumented jet planes to chase the shadow. Dr. Amir Caspi from the Southwest Research Institute explained the rationale behind the aerial pursuits, emphasizing the unique perspective they provide.

The journey of the 2024 total solar eclipse will commence over the Pacific Ocean, with the residents of Penrhyn Atoll in the Cook Islands witnessing a darkened Sun at dawn. From there, the Moon’s shadow will race across the Earth’s surface at speeds exceeding 2,500 km/h, crossing the Mexican coast and the US-Mexico border before traversing 13 states and skimming the Canadian border.

Unfortunately for Europe, the eclipse will only offer a partial view low on the horizon at sunset. However, enthusiasts around the world have been meticulously planning their viewing strategies, considering transportation, accommodation, and historical weather patterns. While Mexico and Texas offer the best chances of clear skies, weather unpredictability adds an element of uncertainty to eclipse viewing, even in locations like Carbondale.

Despite the abundance of space telescopes monitoring the Sun, total eclipses remain invaluable for studying the Sun’s outer atmosphere, known as the corona. This magnetized, superheated region plays a crucial role in generating the solar wind, which can disrupt satellites, communications, and electricity grids. Total eclipses provide a unique opportunity to study the corona’s elusive properties, as the Moon’s disk perfectly aligns with the Sun, allowing for unobstructed observations.

Collaborating with NASA, British scientists plan to deploy instruments in Dallas to study the corona’s directional qualities and the behavior of excited iron atoms using polarimeters and spectrometers. Dr. Huw Morgan from Aberystwyth University emphasized the importance of eclipse observations in understanding the Sun-solar wind connection.

In addition to professional research, citizen scientists can contribute to eclipse science through various projects. Initiatives like Sunsketcher, Eclipse Soundscapes, Globe Observer, and Eclipse Megamovie engage enthusiasts in measuring the Sun’s shape, recording environmental changes during eclipses, and capturing extended views of the event using DSLR cameras.

Dr. Liz MacDonald from NASA highlighted the value of citizen science in enhancing eclipse observations, emphasizing the collaborative nature of the endeavor. However, she also stressed the importance of safety precautions, advising against looking at the exposed Sun with the naked eye.

As excitement builds for the 2024 total solar eclipse, Dr. Korreck reminded enthusiasts of its uniqueness and encouraged everyone to experience it firsthand. While Montana and North Dakota will witness a partial eclipse in 2044, the next total solar eclipse spanning a broad swath of the US won’t occur until the following year.

The fundamental principles of survival are straightforward: humans can endure weeks without food, days without water, but only moments without air. Air stands as the cornerstone of human existence, yet what much of the global populace inhales daily is tainted.

In the 2023 World Air Quality Report, issued on Tuesday by IQAir, a Swiss company monitoring real-time air quality worldwide and issuing annual assessments since 2018, merely 10 nations or territories in the past year maintained air quality meeting the World Health Organization’s cleanliness benchmark.

IQAir relied on the average concentration of PM2.5, or particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less, across cities with publicly available data as the primary indicator of air quality for each country or territory. PM2.5, a harmful constituent of air pollution stemming from various sources such as emissions from coal and oil combustion, as well as dust storms and wildfires, can infiltrate the body through the lungs and bloodstream, impacting major organs. The WHO has outlined that exposure to PM2.5 can result in cardiovascular and respiratory health issues, including strokes or lung cancer, contributing to an estimated 7 million premature deaths annually.

WHO guidelines suggest an annual mean PM2.5 concentration of no more than 5 micrograms per cubic meter (5 µg/m3). Among the 134 countries and territories assessed by IQAir, only Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Puerto Rico, Australia, New Zealand, Bermuda, Grenada, Iceland, Mauritius, and French Polynesia met this standard in 2023.

IQAir’s 2023 World Air Quality Report offers significant insights into various regions.

Asia:

Asia emerges as the most polluted region globally, with all but one of the 100 cities with the most polluted air situated there, with 83 of them located in India. These cities exceeded the WHO’s standard by at least 10 times. The Indian city of Begusarai, with over half a million inhabitants in Bihar, recorded PM2.5 levels at 118.9 µg/m3 last year, surpassing the WHO standard by 23 times.

Central and South Asia are home to the top four most polluted countries—Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and Tajikistan—where 31% of cities reported PM2.5 levels exceeding the WHO standard by over 10 times, a proportion far surpassing any other region in the report. IQAir attributes Asia’s air pollution to various factors, including significant greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired power plants and peat bog burning, exacerbated by weather phenomena like El Niño delaying the onset of rainy seasons, which could have mitigated PM2.5 levels.

Oceania:

Oceania, comprising Australia, New Zealand, and French Polynesia, maintained the cleanest air in 2023, with each country and territory meeting the WHO standard. The region also boasts the highest proportion, 55%, of cities adhering to the WHO standard.

Europe:

Europe witnessed the most improvement among regions, with PM2.5 levels decreasing in 36 out of 43 monitored nations. Bosnia Herzegovina remains the most polluted country in the region, although its PM2.5 levels decreased by 18% from 2022. Croatia exhibited the most significant improvement, with PM2.5 levels dropping by over 40% compared to 2022. While 39% of European cities met the WHO standard in 2022, 54% achieved this threshold in 2023.

The Americas:

North America leads as the most-monitored region, with 3,242 cities analyzed, representing 40% of the total cities in the report. Latin America and the Caribbean are expanding their air-quality monitoring network significantly, with new monitoring stations emerging in various cities and countries. In North America, Canada surpassed the U.S. in air pollution due to extensive wildfires from May to October last year. The U.S. also experienced an increase in air pollution, partly due to southward-drifting smoke from Canadian wildfires. Columbus, Ohio, ranked as the most polluted major U.S. city for the second consecutive year, while Las Vegas, Nev., claimed the title of the least polluted major U.S. city.

Africa:

Africa faces air pollution challenges compounded by a lack of data. While Benoni, South Africa, emerged as the only non-Asian city among the 100 most polluted cities globally, the continent struggles with insufficient air quality data. Despite a rapidly growing urban population, only 24 out of 54 African countries, representing 66% of the population, have adequate air quality data for inclusion in IQAir’s report. Chad, the most polluted country in IQAir’s 2022 report, was excluded due to a lack of publicly available monitoring data.

Frank Hammes, IQAir’s global CEO, emphasizes the critical role of air quality data in saving lives and prompting action. He underscores that where air quality is reported, action is taken, leading to improved air quality.

The expanse of ice vanishing in Greenland over the last thirty years equates to roughly 36 times the size of New York City, a new study reveals. This area is swiftly transitioning into wetlands and shrubbery, as indicated by satellite analysis.

Between the mid-1980s and the mid-2010s, Greenland witnessed a twofold increase in vegetation. Previously glaciated regions now exhibit barren landscapes, wetlands, or shrub-covered terrains. Notably, wetlands expanded fourfold during this period.

Satellite imagery analysis unveiled a loss of 28,707 square kilometers (about 11,000 square miles) of ice across Greenland during the examined three decades. The researchers caution about a chain reaction of consequences with profound implications for climate change and rising sea levels.

Rising air temperatures have spurred ice loss, consequently elevating land temperatures. This has led to permafrost thawing, releasing greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane, amplifying global warming. Moreover, permafrost melt induces land destabilization, potentially jeopardizing infrastructure.

Jonathan Carrivick, one of the study’s authors, highlights secondary effects stemming from ice loss, such as the proliferation of vegetation in previously ice-covered areas. He explains, “We have seen signs that the loss of ice is triggering other reactions which will result in further loss of ice and further ‘greening’ of Greenland, where shrinking ice exposes bare rock that is then colonized by tundra and eventually shrub.”

The disappearance of ice initiates a feedback loop. With less ice to reflect solar energy, more heat is absorbed, escalating land temperatures and exacerbating the cycle of melting. Moreover, increased water from ice melt in lakes absorbs more heat than snow, further raising land temperatures.

Greenland has experienced double the global average rate of warming since the 1970s, suggesting more extreme temperatures in the future. As the world’s largest island, mostly covered in ice and glaciers, Greenland sustains approximately 57,000 inhabitants, predominantly indigenous peoples reliant on natural ecosystems for sustenance.

Lead author Michael Grimes emphasizes the adverse effects of sediment and nutrient runoff into coastal waters, particularly for indigenous communities dependent on fishing and hunters in other regions of the island. He states, “These changes are critical, particularly for the indigenous populations whose traditional subsistence hunting practices rely on the stability of these delicate ecosystems.”

Furthermore, the loss of ice mass in Greenland significantly contributes to global sea level rise, posing substantial challenges presently and in the future.

Frequent landslides, the Kedarnath tragedy, a sinking Joshimath and the most recent Silkyara tunnel collapse are among the disasters that have kept the spotlight on the Himalayan region and the debate about the dangers of construction in this fragile mountain terrain. The Himalayas are young and still under the mountain forming process or orogeny, resulting in stability issues and complex geological conditions. A situation which in this case is also aggravated by earthquake occurrences as it is an active seismic zone. These have led to the question repeatedly being asked, “how safe is it” to construct here.

It is a situation and a question that India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bhutan, countries located around these mountains, are constantly confronting. However, balanced with the need for roadways, tunnels, hydropower projects to harness the continuous water supply from perennial snow-fed rivers, there is no let-up in construction here.

Drawing attention to the hazards involved is the latest event, Silkyara. The Silkyara Bend–Barkot tunnel was being constructed as part of the Char Dham project, which is intended to connect the Char Dham pilgrimage sites with two-lane, all-weather paved roads. The tunnel located on the Yamunotri end of NH134, connects Dharasu with Yamunotri.

“The construction of this tunnel will provide all weather connectivity to Yamunotri, one of the dham on the Chardham Yatra, encouraging regional socio-economic development, trade and tourism within the country,” said a Press Information Bureau release announcing clearance of the Silkyara Bend-Barkot tunnel by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs chaired by the Prime Minister in February 2018.  The tunnel was approved as part of the Chardham Mahamarg Paryojana, the PIB release said. The little over 4.5km long tunnel shortens the route by about 20 kilometres and travel time by about an hour. On November 12 while work was in progress a section of the Silkyara Bend–Barkot tunnel collapsed trapping 41 construction workers inside. As everybody now knows, after a rescue operation that lasted 17 days and drew global attention, all 41 workers were safely rescued.

Multiple questions on tunnel cave-in

The tunnel cave-in has raised multiple questions about the reasons for the collapse. There have been many media reports on the collapse and often a recapitulation of earlier events. But most of them have made vague and generalised statements about the Himalayas being a ‘young’ and ‘fragile’ mountain chain and the terrain being ‘unsuitable’ for large infrastructure projects. Many media reports have also blamed ‘tectonic faults’ for the collapse.

However, these are generalisations and such reports do not provide a good understanding of the geological setup which is extremely important in comprehending the reasons for such mishaps. An understanding of geology would offer an insight into what went wrong and help prevent such occurrences in future. So, in cases like the Silkyara-Barkot tunnel, a better approach is to look at the local geological picture rather than making general remarks about the fragility of the Himalayan-mountain chain, which doesn’t really convey anything significant.

The tunnel passes through the Garhwal Himalaya, west of Uttarkashi. This region is characterised by multiple superimposed thrust faults. The most important among them is North Almora Thrust, which is known for neotectonic activity and earthquakes.  The North Almora Thrust itself is displaced by two steeply inclined, near vertical tear faults known as Koteshwar and Barkot Faults which are close to Barkot.

The broad lithology (general type of rocks) of this area consists mainly of metamorphic rocks such as phyllites and metavolcanic rocks. These rocks are known as the Chandpur Group in stratigraphy which is the branch of geology concerned with the order and relative position of strata and their relationship to the geological timescale. According to geologists, these metamorphic rocks are tightly folded, cut by faults at places, foliated and the foliation has a steep dip (38 to 550). It is not known for sure, whether the tunnel cuts across a major fault, but it probably passes through the tightly folded and deformed metamorphic rocks.

A geological report before the commencement of the Silkyara tunnel project has shown that the proposed tunnel could encounter weak rocks and adequate support structure would be needed to prop up the weak rocks. According to the report, the “rock type to be encountered along the diversion tunnels would be 20% good (Class 2), 50% fair (Class 3), 15% poor (Class 4) and 15% very poor (Class 4)”. The report has also highlighted possibility of wedge failure or rotational failure in the tunnel. When rotational failure occurs, the failed surface will begin to move outwards and downwards. It occurs when rotation by a slip surface causes the slope surface to curve.

Need for geological mapping

This draws attention to the need and extreme importance of detailed geological investigations in such situations. A detailed geological mapping followed by several exploratory drill holes and detailed core-logs help in deciphering the lithology and structure of the location and safety/precautionary measures, if any, can be put in place. This is followed by RMR (Rock Mass Rating) classification of the rock types which assigns ratings to the rock mass based on properties such as the number of discontinuities (such as fractures) in the rock, spacing between discontinuities, nature of the fractures, groundwater, and rock quality designation (RQD) index. RMR classifications help in understanding the possible behaviour of the rock and then engineers can decide the kind of construction and precautionary measures that need to be put in place.

Speaking about the tunnel project, in an interview to a newspaper, Prof. Navin Juyal, a prominent and respected geologist, has said “First of all if the 4.5 km road tunnel project in the sensitive Himalayas region was taken up based on this geological report, it is insufficient. One cannot know the type of rocks by just three exploratory drillings. Further, the report clearly says there was no very good quality rock in the area where the tunnel was being built. Only 20% of rock is of good quality, the rest is fair and poor and very poor. The report admits that the area was not geologically stable.”

This statement clearly points out and highlights the need for a meticulous geological survey, besides geological investigations, before undertaking any construction project in terra infirma like the Himalayan-mountain chain. A number of such disasters could have been avoided if local geology was understood or warnings from experts had been heeded.

(The author is a noted geologist. Views are personal. By special arrangement with The Billion Press)

Read more at: https://www.southasiamonitor.org/index.php/perspective/avoiding-himalayan-disasters-need-heed-geological-warnings

Glaciers in the Himalayas are rapidly melting, but a recent report reveals a remarkable phenomenon in the world’s tallest mountain range that might be mitigating the impacts of the global climate crisis.

In a study published on December 4 in the journal Nature Geoscience, researchers discovered that when warming temperatures affect high-altitude ice masses, it triggers an unexpected reaction—powerful cold winds that cascade down the slopes, providing a cooling effect in the lower areas of the glaciers and adjacent ecosystems.

Francesca Pellicciotti, a professor of glaciology at the Institute of Science and Technology Austria and lead author of the study, explained, “This leads to an increase in turbulent heat exchange at the glacier’s surface and stronger cooling of the surface air mass.”

As the cool, dry surface air becomes denser, it sinks and flows down the slopes into the valleys, creating a cooling effect in the lower regions of the glaciers. Given that the ice and snow from the Himalayan range feed into 12 rivers, supplying fresh water to nearly 2 billion people across 16 countries, understanding the sustainability of this self-preserving cooling effect is crucial in the face of anticipated temperature increases in the coming decades.

The alarming rate of glacier melt in the Himalayas was highlighted in a June report, indicating a 65% faster melt in the 2010s compared to the previous decade. Fanny Brun, a research scientist at the Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement in Grenoble, France, emphasized, “The main impact of rising temperature on glaciers is an increase of ice losses, due to melt increase.”

The lengthening and intensification of the melt season lead to glacier thinning and retreat, resulting in deglaciated landscapes that contribute to further temperature increases due to the albedo effect. Brun explained, “Light or ‘white’ surfaces such as clean snow and ice will reflect more sunlight (high albedo) compared with ‘dark’ surfaces such as the land that is exposed as glaciers retreat, soil, and oceans (low albedo).”

Surprisingly, at the base of Mount Everest, overall temperature averages appeared stable despite the region experiencing glacier melt. Franco Salerno, coauthor of the report and researcher for the National Research Council of Italy (CNR), noted, “While the minimum temperatures have been steadily on the rise, the surface temperature maxima in summer were consistently dropping.”

However, the cooling winds are insufficient to fully counteract the impact of increasing temperatures and glacier melt. Thomas Shaw from the ISTA research group with Pellicciotti commented, “The cooling is local, but perhaps still not sufficient to overcome the larger impact of climatic warming and fully preserve the glaciers.”

The scarcity of data in high-elevation areas globally prompted the study team to focus on using ground observation records from a climate station located at 5,050 meters (16,568 feet) on the southern slopes of Mount Everest—the Pyramid International Laboratory/Observatory. The station has recorded detailed meteorological data for almost 30 years.

Pellicciotti emphasized the global relevance of the process highlighted in the study, stating, “The process we highlighted in the paper is potentially of global relevance and may occur on any glacier worldwide where conditions are met.”

The study underscores the importance of collecting more high-elevation, long-term data to substantiate these findings and assess their broader impacts. Pellicciotti urged, “The new study provides a compelling motivation to collect more high-elevation, long-term data that are strongly needed to prove the new findings and their broader impacts.”

The Pyramid International Laboratory/Observatory climate station, located at a glacierized elevation of 5,050 meters, played a pivotal role in the research. Pellicciotti, Salerno, and their team utilized detailed meteorological observations from the station to conclude that warming temperatures trigger katabatic winds—a phenomenon where cold winds flow downhill, common in mountainous regions, including the Himalayas.

“Katabatic winds are a common feature of Himalayan glaciers and their valleys, and have likely always occurred,” Pellicciotti said. “What we observe, however, is a significant increase in intensity and duration of katabatic winds, and this is due to the fact that the surrounding air temperatures have increased in a warming world.”

The team also observed higher ground-level ozone concentrations correlated with lower temperatures, indicating that katabatic winds act as a pump transporting cold air from higher elevations down to the valley.

Comparing glacier loss in the Central Himalaya to Europe, Brun highlighted that, on average, glaciers in the Central Himalaya have thinned about 9 meters over the past two decades—a significantly lower rate than glaciers in Europe, which have thinned about 20 meters over the same period. Understanding how long these glaciers can locally counteract global warming is crucial for addressing climate change effectively.

Study coauthor Nicolas Guyennon, a researcher at the National Research Council of Italy, expressed optimism, stating, “We believe that the katabatic winds are the response of healthy glaciers to rising global temperatures and that this phenomenon could help preserve the permafrost and surrounding vegetation.”

However, further analysis is needed, and the research team aims to identify the glacial characteristics favoring the cooling effect. Pellicciotti emphasized the need for more long-term ground stations, stating, “Even if the glaciers can’t preserve themselves forever, they might still preserve the environment around them for some time. Thus, we call for more multidisciplinary research approaches to converge efforts toward explaining the effects of global warming.”

The surprising discovery of katabatic winds in the Himalayas provides a potential ally in the fight against climate change. While the glaciers are still under threat from rising temperatures, this natural cooling mechanism offers hope for the preservation of the delicate ecosystems and water sources dependent on the Himalayan ice and snow. The study underscores the need for continued research and data collection to fully understand the broader implications of this phenomenon and to develop effective strategies for addressing the challenges posed by a changing climate.

As leaders and delegates converge in Dubai for the annual UN climate summit, an analysis by Climate Central, a nonprofit climate research group, reveals the vulnerability of host cities from past summits to rising ocean waters. The escalating levels of planet-warming pollution have led to severe droughts, deadly floods, and the rapid melting of glaciers and ice worldwide. The analysis employs peer-reviewed sea level rise projections and local elevation data to visually depict a stark contrast between the present and a potential high-tide future if global temperatures rise to 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

“Decisions made at COP28 will shape the long-term future of Earth’s coast cities, including Dubai,” emphasizes Benjamin Strauss, Chief Scientist, and CEO of Climate Central. This urgency stems from the recent UN report indicating that the world is on track to warm up to 2.9 degrees. Climate scientists underscore the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees beyond which both humans and ecosystems will face challenges in adaptation.

Although the Paris Agreement, established in 2015 at COP21, aimed to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius, with a preferable target of 1.5 degrees, the current trajectory risks making coastal communities, low-lying nations, and small islands uninhabitable. Strauss highlights the dependence of these places on swift and substantial carbon pollution reductions to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.

A report from the World Meteorological Organization predicts 2023 to be the hottest year on record. Monthly temperatures from June to October have consistently set new global records, accompanied by unprecedented ocean temperatures. This global warming contributes to accelerated melting of glaciers and ice sheets, even in Antarctica, with potentially devastating implications for global sea level rise.

Climate Central estimates that approximately 385 million people reside in areas prone to eventual inundation by ocean water at high tide, even with substantial reductions in planet-warming pollution. Restricting warming to 1.5 degrees would still affect land inhabited by 510 million people today. However, if global temperatures breach 3 degrees, more than 800 million people could find themselves living in areas threatened by high-tide encroachment, as per a recent study.

While these scenarios may unfold over centuries, scientists emphasize that every fraction of a degree of warming exacerbates the consequences of climate change. The upcoming COP28 discussions will center on strategies to curtail fossil fuel use to avert the escalating risk of an underwater future. This year’s climate talks introduce a new scorecard, revealing countries’ progress on their climate targets and underscoring the urgency of addressing climate pollution, as the window for action is “rapidly narrowing.”

As authorities in the field of climate change, we are frequently questioned about the state of our planet, and surprisingly, our response leans more towards optimism than despair. There is a crucial but often overlooked energy transition in progress, coupled with increasing investments in adaptation measures to enhance resilience against extreme weather events. While global efforts to meet climate goals are falling short, recent developments indicate a potential for substantial change and lay the groundwork for broader initiatives.

In the midst of escalating climate-related disasters, there is a noteworthy achievement in the United States, where greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 17 percent between 2005 and 2021, despite the economy doubling in size. The costs of solar and wind energy have plummeted by 70 percent and 90 percent, respectively, in the last decade, constituting 80 percent of new electricity generating capacity this year. The sale of electric vehicles is also on the rise, with over 1 million units sold in 2023, marking a 50 percent increase from the previous year and accounting for one in every ten new vehicle purchases.

These positive trends are further supported by favorable public policies at the state level and the federal level’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The IRA aims to reduce the costs of renewables, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and other low-emission technologies, with projections indicating a potential halving of U.S. emissions by 2035, accompanied by significant cost savings for households.

The combined effect of declining clean energy costs and additional climate policies is contributing to a reduction in the anticipated global warming from 3.5 degrees Celsius to 2.4 degrees this century. While this progress falls short of meeting the Paris Agreement target, it reflects a significant step forward in making climate action more economically viable worldwide.

However, acknowledging these advancements does not diminish the alarming impacts of climate change. The consequences of historical emissions are increasingly evident, with climate-fueled events occurring more frequently and with greater severity. Records for global surface temperatures, Antarctic sea ice loss, ocean temperatures, extreme flooding, heatwaves, and wildfires have been shattered, causing substantial adverse effects on individuals, assets, ecosystems, and institutions.

In the U.S., households are grappling with climate-related increases in medical expenses, food prices, insurance premiums, and home repair costs. Research has also shed light on less-appreciated impacts on mental health, school performance, and crime. Government resources are stretched thin by spending on disaster response and wildfire suppression, further compounded by decreased tax revenue.

The magnitude of these impacts hinges on uncertainties related to climate variability, technological advancements, behavioral responses, and differential vulnerability, posing an economic burden on a generally risk-averse society. Additionally, there are stark disparities in the distribution of harm and benefit concerning climate change responses, with marginalized communities facing increased risks due to unequal exposure and fewer resources for adaptation.

Effectively mitigating climate impacts requires an accelerated transition of energy and food systems, coupled with investments in infrastructure and nature-based solutions that promote resilience. Despite emissions reduction efforts, adaptation remains essential, especially as the U.S. warms 60 percent faster than the global average. Adaptation initiatives hold the potential to safeguard lives, improve quality of life, and restore vital natural ecosystems.

Engaging affected communities through participatory processes can advance more equitable adaptation decision-making. Climate-informed markets may further support these efforts, emphasizing the importance of accurate risk information to protect homeowners and municipalities from equity loss and price deflation due to climate-driven housing bubble risks.

While incremental adaptation measures are underway, addressing severe impacts may necessitate transformative actions such as redesigning buildings and updating infrastructure standards. In 2020, global spending on adaptation efforts amounted to only one-tenth of what was allocated for emission reductions. Thoughtful investments in public infrastructure, community resilience, and adaptation serve as crucial complements to decarbonization efforts.

The future of our climate is in our hands. We are in a narrow window where the severity of the problem is known, yet there is still time to act. The reason for optimism lies in our ability to collaboratively work towards reducing emissions, strengthening resilience, motivating adaptation, and advancing equity.

In the past few months, the globe has experienced abnormal heat, resembling a disaster movie with soaring temperatures, wildfires, storms, and floods, as reported by scientists. The latest data reveals the exceptional nature of this global heat crisis. Two significant reports highlight this alarming scenario: one declares that humanity has just endured the hottest 12-month period in at least 125,000 years, while the other predicts that 2023 is “virtually certain” to become the hottest year in recorded history, following five consecutive months of record-breaking temperatures.

“We have become all too used to climate records falling like dominoes in recent years,” says David Reay, executive director of the Edinburgh Climate Change Institute at the University of Edinburgh. “But 2023 is a whole different ball game in terms of the massive margin by which these records have been broken.”

The period from November 2022 to the end of October 2023 marked the hottest 12 months, with an average temperature of 1.32 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to Climate Central. This temperature surge is not normal, driven primarily by the excessive carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels.

The impact of this extreme heat was felt by the vast majority of the global population, with 90% experiencing at least 10 days of high temperatures with distinct climate fingerprints. In India, 86% of the population (1.2 billion people) endured at least 30 days of high temperatures, intensified threefold by climate change. In the United States, this affected 26% of the population, equivalent to 88 million people.

Particular cities faced severe challenges, especially in the South and Southwest of the United States. Houston, for instance, witnessed the longest extreme heat streak of any major city globally, enduring 22 consecutive days of extreme heat between July and August.

A subsequent analysis by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service further emphasizes the gravity of the situation, declaring that 2023 is “virtually certain” to set a new record for the hottest year. The prediction follows the revelation that October 2023 was the hottest October on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2019 by 0.4 degrees Celsius.

Each month since June has shattered monthly heat records, with every month since July exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The year-to-date average is 1.43 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, perilously close to the internationally agreed goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Despite scientists’ primary concern about long-term temperature trends, the past few months above the 1.5-degree threshold offer a forewarning of the intensified impacts of global warming. This includes more violent storms, heavier rains and floods, and more intense, frequent, and prolonged heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires.

In addition to record land temperatures, ocean temperatures have consistently been at record-high levels since May, fueling the development of hurricanes and tropical storms worldwide. Antarctic sea ice has also remained at record lows for six consecutive months.

The alarming statistics underscore the urgent need for action, adding extra significance to the upcoming UN COP28 climate conference in Dubai. Scientists stress the importance of ceasing the burning of oil, gas, and coal. However, a UN report indicates that governments plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels, exceeding the limit required to cap global heating at 1.5 degrees Celsius.

“The only thing more remarkable than the magnitude of these increases in global temperature and sea ice loss,” remarks David Reay, “is our continuing failure to put the world on track to meet the Paris climate goals.”

As the United States prepares for a winter significantly influenced by the first substantial El Niño event in several years, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have unveiled maps providing insights into potential snowfall patterns.

El Niño, a natural oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon in the tropical Pacific, is predicted to reach its most potent level since a very strong El Niño in 2015-2016, which led to the warmest winter ever recorded in the contiguous US, according to NOAA.

While no two El Niño winters are identical, the typical outcome involves wetter and cooler weather in the southern US, while the northern regions become drier and warmer. This is precisely what is anticipated for the upcoming winter.

However, it’s crucial to note that wetter weather doesn’t necessarily equate to more snow. Furthermore, when snow does fall, the amounts can vary significantly from one location to another.

The newly released maps provide information on where snow is more or less likely during El Niño winters compared to the average. However, it’s essential to understand that these maps are historical guidelines, not actual forecasts. Snowfall forecasts consider various atmospheric and climatological factors, not just El Niño.

“El Niño nudges the odds in favor of certain climate outcomes, but never ensures them,” clarified Michelle L’Heureux, one of the scientists responsible for the maps, in a NOAA blog post.

The first map illustrates the differences in snowfall from the average during all El Niño winters, regardless of the strength of El Niño. The tan and brown shading highlights the drier trend typically observed in the northern US, while the blue shading indicates the wetter and snowier trend in the southern US. This trend is attributed to the southward shift of the jet stream, which directs storms across the southern part of the country, increasing the likelihood of snow.

The impact of El Niño becomes more pronounced as its strength increases. The next map shows the same data for stronger El Niño winters. The darker hues represent more significant deviations in snowfall during strong El Niño events compared to average ones.

The regions that benefit most from increased snowfall during strong El Niño events include the mid-Atlantic, high elevations in the Southwest and California, and the southern US, with a noteworthy caveat. To witness snow, the temperatures must be low, so the chances of snow don’t vary significantly from normal in areas of Texas and the Southeast, where temperatures tend to remain too warm for snowfall.

The influence of El Niño’s jet stream effect is particularly evident in the high terrain of the West, where cold and snowy conditions are common. Mountains in the Southwest and California experience more snow, while the Northwest sees fewer storms.

Storms that impact the mid-Atlantic’s snowfall prospects typically follow a path along the Appalachian Mountains or move off the coast to become nor’easters. During El Niño events, these nor’easters can be enhanced by abundant tropical moisture and deliver an average of “two to three significant snowstorms,” according to Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

This could lead to above-average snowfall in places like Washington, DC, and Baltimore, which received less than an inch of snow last winter.

Although the Northeast typically sees less snow during strong El Niño winters, a single massive storm, such as a potent nor’easter, can skew the snowfall totals for the entire season.

Snow enthusiasts in the Northwest and Midwest will also need to rely on substantial storms for significant snowfall, as stronger El Niño events have historically resulted in less snow than average.

By removing snowfall totals from the map and focusing on the number of strong El Niño events with below-average snowfall, it becomes apparent which areas are most often affected by snow deficits. Darker red areas on the map indicate regions that have experienced more years of below-average snowfall during moderate-to-strong El Niño winters, including parts of the typically snowy Midwest and Northeast. This suggests that these areas are most susceptible to having their snowfall “stolen” by El Niño.

A series of recent scientific analyses have brought to light the concerning state of Antarctica’s ice, raising alarm bells for humanity. From vanishing sea ice to the accelerated melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet and potential changes in East Antarctica, the implications for our world are profound.

First, let’s address the issue of sea ice. The sea ice around Antarctica experiences seasonal freezing during its winter, which occurs during the summer months in North America. However, due to the effects of climate change, the extent of this sea ice has been steadily decreasing. This year, the sea ice reached its smallest recorded extent since satellite tracking began in 1980. The diminished sea ice not only impacts Antarctica but also contributes to global sea-level rise through other mechanisms. Sea ice provides crucial protection for land-based glaciers and massive ice shelves, shielding them from storms and above-freezing ocean waters. Without this protective barrier, the ice on land melts faster, further exacerbating rising sea levels. Moreover, recovery is challenging, as exposed ocean water absorbs more heat than ice, hindering the refreezing process.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center’s analysis suggests a significant shift in the Antarctic sea ice system towards a regime influenced by warmer ocean waters, inhibiting ice growth. This change implies a difficult path for sea ice recovery after a year like this, as warmer waters prevent it from reforming effectively.

Beyond sea ice, the melting of Antarctica’s glaciers and ice shelves is an increasingly urgent concern. The West Antarctic ice shelf is the region most affected by climate change, with the potential to raise global sea levels by around 10 feet. Scientists have long warned that once ice loss begins in West Antarctica, it could become unstoppable within a human lifetime. Recent research indicates that the runaway melting process has already commenced, with the rate of ice melt and ocean warming in crucial areas of West Antarctica now three times higher than in the 20th century. Alarming as it is, even immediate and drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would have little impact on slowing the melting rate in this region for the rest of this century. The situation appears to be spiraling beyond human control.

Kaitlin Naughten of the British Antarctic Survey emphasizes that while efforts today may not yield immediate results, they can make a difference for future generations, although substantial changes may only become apparent in the 22nd century. Despite the grim outlook, the research doesn’t predict the complete collapse of the West Antarctic ice shelf within the next century. There remains hope in protecting the East Antarctic ice sheet, a much larger and, currently, more stable counterpart. This part of Antarctica is believed to remain relatively secure for the next century.

However, a separate study published in Science Advances introduces a caveat to this optimism. It suggests that massive glaciers in East Antarctica might also melt faster than previously anticipated, as warm ocean water mixes with meltwater beneath the ice. While East Antarctica is expected to retain its stability for a century or more, this discovery raises concerns about the potential implications for the disintegration of West Antarctic glaciers.

Collectively, these findings create a bleak picture of a continent poised to drive significant sea level rise in the coming decades. The repercussions could be catastrophic for our planet if we don’t transition away from fossil fuels more rapidly. Some U.S. cities are already preparing for several feet of sea level rise this century, considering the predictions by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which already account for Antarctic melting. The loss of ice in West Antarctica disproportionately affects sea level rise on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States, influenced by complex ocean currents and ice dynamics.

In this context, courageous actions entail both emission reductions and comprehensive adaptation strategies. Simply cutting emissions is insufficient on its own, and forward-thinking planning is essential to mitigate human suffering and save lives. It’s imperative that we confront the profound challenges posed by Antarctica’s changing ice, as the consequences reach our very doorstep.

A new study warns that increased melting of West Antarctica’s ice shelves is “unavoidable” in the coming decades, with potentially significant implications for future sea-level rise. Ice shelves, which extend into the ocean from the main ice sheet, play a crucial role in holding back glaciers. However, as these ice shelves melt, they can trigger the acceleration of ice behind them, releasing more into the oceans.

The findings of this study suggest that future sea-level rise may be more substantial than previously estimated, raising concerns about the impact on coastal communities. The lead author of the report, Dr. Kaitlin Naughten of the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), emphasized that these findings increase the likelihood that current estimates of sea-level rise will be exceeded.

In 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released projections for global average sea-level rise by 2100, estimating a range between 0.28 meters and 1.01 meters. Melting glaciers and ice sheets were identified as a key factor contributing to this rise. Even a one-meter increase in sea levels can pose a significant threat to coastal regions, affecting millions of people worldwide.

However, the IPCC also acknowledged uncertainties related to “ice-sheet-related processes,” not directly included in their estimates. This latest study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, is the first to simulate how ocean warming, driven by greenhouse gas emissions, will impact Antarctic ice shelves.

The study indicates that the Amundsen Sea, off the coast of West Antarctica, will warm at a rate approximately three times faster than historical averages. This rapid warming will lead to increased melting of ice shelves, even if significant efforts are made to reduce emissions. Dr. Naughten underlines the importance of taking immediate action to slow the rate of sea-level rise in the long term.

While the study’s conclusions are significant, the authors stress the need for further research to enhance confidence in their findings. The melting of ice shelves in West Antarctica is of particular concern due to its potential impact on the broader region.

West Antarctica contains a substantial amount of ice that, if fully melted, could raise global sea levels by approximately 58 meters. Most of this ice is located in East Antarctica, which has been relatively stable. In contrast, West Antarctica has been losing mass in recent decades, making it less stable.

Ice shelves are critical in holding back the ice mass on land. As these shelves melt due to warm ocean waters, the glaciers behind them may accelerate. This acceleration can result in more ice entering the ocean through melting or breaking off as icebergs. Moreover, a significant portion of West Antarctica is located below sea level, allowing glaciers to retreat into deeper waters, further accelerating ice loss.

One particularly vulnerable area is the Thwaites Glacier, often referred to as the “doomsday glacier” due to its potential to raise global sea levels significantly if it collapses entirely. The grounding line of the Thwaites Glacier is already retreating rapidly in some areas, highlighting its susceptibility to warming.

The processes initiated by accelerated ice shelf melting could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, additional factors, such as snowfall, surface ice melting, and glacier flow rates, also influence the ice sheet’s response to warming and the speed of sea-level rise.

It is widely acknowledged that sea levels will continue to rise in the coming decades and centuries. The slow adjustment of ice sheets to recent rapid warming means further temperature increases are expected. This study adds weight to the idea that sea-level rise may happen more rapidly due to increased ice shelf melt, necessitating adaptation measures for societies worldwide.

Dr. Naughten emphasizes that it is essential to address the root causes of ice shelf melting by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This action can offer societies the necessary time to prepare for and adapt to rising sea levels.

Alberto Naveira Garabato, a professor in physical oceanography at the University of Southampton, adds that this research should serve as a “wake-up call.” It underscores the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to protect the Antarctic Ice Sheet and mitigate the potential for sea-level rise.

In the 16th century, Sen no Rikyu, renowned as Japan’s most celebrated tea master, regarded the pristine forest stream water of Yamazaki as ideal for his tea ceremonies. At the same location on the outskirts of Kyoto, Shinjiro Torii, the founder of Suntory, established Japan’s inaugural malt whisky distillery in 1923, selecting the same water source highly prized by Japan’s “The Way of Tea” master.

As Suntory commemorates a century of crafting whisky, it is advancing a mission of unwavering quality through Japan’s art of monozukuri craftsmanship, all the while championing a sustainability endeavor firmly rooted in the preservation of water resources. For Suntory Holdings CEO Tak Niinami, the waters of Yamazaki, a misty valley where three rivers converge, are the wellspring and inspiration behind Suntory’s devoted commitment to whisky-making in harmony with nature.

In this context, Niinami aptly captures the essence, “We must think about what heritage means to us. What is Shinjiro Torii’s legacy? It comes down to providing something new. Something for people to feel — something we call ‘the brilliance of life.’ It’s not about selling products. It’s about the experience. We have to pursue innovation, even in the traditional world of whisky. We must find harmony among humanity, innovation, and nature.”

Suntory has been experiencing a surge in global demand for its premium whiskies like Yamazaki, Hibiki, and Hakushu, positioning them among the most sought-after whiskies in the world. This success has put Niinami under substantial pressure to expand production, a path he refuses to take in order to uphold quality.

“As CEO, I have to always follow this discipline, even if it’s my job to boost revenue. The reason? We need to surprise consumers by exceeding their expectations,” Niinami affirms, emphasizing the uncompromising spirit that governs Suntory’s commitment to quality.
Shinji Fukuyo, the fifth in a prestigious lineage of chief blenders, elucidates the critical role of pure water, which flows down mountain streams and permeates through rock, in determining the quality and natural harmony of Suntory whisky. This water, enriched by nutrients and minerals from the fertile terroir, remains a mysterious and essential element.

“In whisky-making, it’s water as much as barley and yeast that’s crucial,” Fukuyo asserts. “Water ultimately determines the success of each whisky we make. We haven’t fully understood what it is in the water that makes Suntory whisky special, but we know it brings out its unique character.”

Fukuyo elucidates how Suntory’s premium whiskies like Yamazaki and Hakushu, through maturation in their unique terroir, culminate in “a resonance between humans and nature.” The diverse climate and humidity of Yamazaki create ideal conditions for cask aging, a phenomenon known as “Suntory maturation.” This process yields the subtle and nuanced refinement of Suntory whiskies, in harmony with Shinjiro Torii’s original vision.

“Our whisky remains faithful to the outlook of our founder,” says Fukuyo. “He sought to create a whisky that appeals to the sensitivity of the Japanese sense of taste. For a hundred years, we’ve been cultivating this refined taste with unwavering dedication to quality.”

Beyond the world of whisky, Suntory is dedicated to nurturing water sanctuaries, including those deep in Japan’s Minami Alps, where Hakushu whisky is crafted. These sanctuaries play a vital role in preserving pristine groundwater and sustaining life’s most precious resource while bolstering whisky quality.

Today, Suntory’s water sanctuary project spans roughly 12,000 hectares in 22 locations across 15 prefectures in Japan, replenishing more than twice the water consumed by Suntory’s plants.
Niinami underscores the commitment to replenishing the water used for production, noting that, “We have a passion for cultivating water resources in forests. Natural water is not owned by us, but by society.” Globally, Suntory has extended its water sanctuary initiatives to Scotland and Kentucky, collaborating with local communities to support the environment.

As Niinami affirms, “Water scarcity is a global crisis. We must be a solution, not a cause. Our commitment is to contribute to natural water in the world. That’s the commitment of all Suntory Group companies.”

Water conservation is an integral part of Suntory’s broader global mission of sustainability, grounded in the vision of humanity living in harmony with nature. Suntory is actively engaged in developing innovative technologies for plastic recycling, including PET bottles, and collaborates with over 40 companies, including competitors, to advance recycling technologies on a large scale.

“Biodiversity is a key part of the lifeline for the world, not only for humankind but also for all land and ocean life,” emphasizes Niinami. “We need to work with partners to resolve pressing issues such as sustainability, and we want to be a center for it.”
This forward-looking vision encapsulates the legacy of Shinjiro Torii, who believed in nature’s blessings to humanity and sought to pay them forward.
As Niinami aptly states, “Nature gives us blessings. We have to return our due.”

In his recent apostolic exhortation, Laudate Deum, Pope Francis extends the dialogue initiated by his 2015 encyclical, “Laudato Si’, on Care for Our Common Home.” Climate scientists affirm the scientific rigor of this latest document, while theologians applaud the Pope’s unwavering commitment to addressing the climate crisis.

At the outset of Laudate Deum, Pope Francis commends the U.S. bishops’ assessment of climate change as a social issue. He cites the 2019 global climate change background report from the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, underlining the interconnectedness of caring for both one another and the Earth. This report emphasizes that climate change is a paramount challenge facing society and the global community, with the most vulnerable bearing the brunt of its impacts.

Archbishop Thomas Wenski of Miami welcomes the inclusion of this quote, viewing it as recognition of the conference’s longstanding work on climate. He asserts that environmental stewardship has been an ongoing commitment of American bishops.

Daniel DiLeo, associate professor and director of the justice and peace studies program at Creighton University, sees the citation as a strategic move to hold the bishops accountable for their own standards. DiLeo, who co-published a study in 2021 revealing that the majority of U.S. bishops rarely mentioned climate change in their writings around Laudato Si’, remains skeptical about the likelihood of a significant change in the bishops’ stance post-Laudate Deum. He calls on the bishops to commit to substantial emission reductions within specific timeframes to align with Laudate Deum’s call and engage young Catholics actively in environmental issues.

In line with this, Christiana Figueres, the United Nations official instrumental in the 2015 Paris Agreement, had previously challenged the U.S. Catholic Church to commit to achieving net-zero emissions by 2040. DiLeo underscores the importance of collective action among individual Catholics, urging them to leverage their combined influence in their dioceses and with elected officials.

In Laudate Deum, Pope Francis issues a challenge to the United States, noting the high per capita emissions in comparison to China and the poorest countries. He emphasizes the need for a significant shift away from the unsustainable Western lifestyle as a means to address the climate crisis.

In response to this criticism, Archbishop Wenski questions the accuracy of the comparison between China and the United States, suggesting that China’s pollution levels might be underestimated.

According to the World Bank, the U.S. emitted 13.0 metric tons of carbon dioxide per capita in 2020, while China emitted 7.8 metric tons per capita. Nevertheless, Archbishop Wenski acknowledges that conspicuous consumption is a notable aspect of American culture and hopes that Laudate Deum prompts self-reflection.

The archbishop commits to implementing more sustainable and energy-efficient practices in parishes and schools within the Miami Archdiocese. He also expects Laudate Deum to influence their legislative priorities when advocating for government policies.

Laudate Deum’s extensive explanation of the latest climate science garners praise from climate scientists. Carmelite Fr. Eduardo Agosta Scarel, a climate scientist and senior adviser to the Laudato Si’ Movement, applauds the document’s use of up-to-date scientific knowledge. However, he points out a concern with the Pope’s use of the term “correlation” when describing the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. He emphasizes that it’s not merely a correlation but a well-established scientific theory explaining the Earth’s climate behavior.

Carlos Martinez, an atmospheric scientist and chair of the Committee on Spirituality, Multifaith Outreach, and Science at the American Meteorological Society, commends Pope Francis for his straightforward and simple communication on climate. He believes that this approach will help climate scientists effectively reach religious audiences who might be apathetic or skeptical about climate change.

Martinez appreciates Pope Francis’ attention to geoengineering and carbon capture technology, noting the potential of the latter to play a positive role.

Laudate Deum places significant emphasis on the forthcoming United Nations climate change summit, COP28. Pope Francis calls for “binding forms of energy transition” at COP28, focusing on their efficiency, obligation, and monitoring.

Sister Veronica Brand, representing the Religious of the Sacred Heart of Mary at the U.N., recognizes the impact of Pope Francis’ environmental teachings on U.N. leaders. She appreciates his concept of “multilateralism from below,” emphasizing the importance of representing the voices of people on the ground, especially sisters’ participation at the U.N.

Blair Nelsen, representing the Sisters of St. Joseph of Peace at the U.N., applauds Pope Francis’ analysis of the state of multilateralism and underscores the significance of civil society organizations. Nelsen points out the incentive for destructive business practices under the prevailing technocratic paradigm, echoing the Pope’s concerns.

Christiana Zenner, associate professor of theology, science, and ethics at Fordham University, lauds Pope Francis for addressing the technocratic paradigm, which questions the idea of unlimited technological and economic growth as an unqualified good. She believes that this document will make the concept of the technocratic paradigm more understandable.

Zenner finds it surprising that the document cites feminist science and technology studies scholar Donna Haraway, given the Vatican’s infrequent citations of women in papal documents. Zenner contends that the document sometimes discusses women more than it allows them to have a voice.

Finally, Fr. Emmanuel Katongole, a theology and peace studies professor at the University of Notre Dame, appreciates Pope Francis’ connection between Indigenous culture and a healthy ecology. He believes that Indigenous, poor communities may offer insights into a more sustainable future by breaking free from the technocratic paradigm.

Katongole emphasizes the need for widespread awareness of Laudate Deum and its theological and spiritual implications, calling for workshops in all parishes to educate Catholics about the climate crisis.

Dominican Sr. Lissette Avilés-Ríos, who hosts a radio show and podcast focused on environmental care, underscores the importance of conveying Pope Francis’s message and climate science to help people understand the local impact. She calls on Christians to unite their faith with their way of life, taking responsibility for the Earth.

In the wake of the scorching events of July, anyone who remains skeptical about the reality of global warming is entrenched in denial that would rival ignoring a blazing inferno despite one’s own clothes being ablaze. Shockingly, numerous Americans continue to disregard the scientifically-established truths, opting instead to embrace the falsehoods perpetuated by the fossil fuel industry, their political allies, and the so-called experts who have compromised their integrity for the industry’s gain.

Equally culpable are those of us who acknowledge the irrefutable evidence of climate change, yet fail to take meaningful action to counter the escalating chaos. We are akin to frogs languishing in a slowly heating pot of water, oblivious to the rising temperature and the impending danger we face. July, having secured its place as the hottest month ever recorded in human history, demonstrated the severity of the issue. In regions like Phoenix, emergency rooms were inundated with victims of heatstroke and burns from sizzling pavements and metal surfaces. Notably, heat-related fatalities outpace hurricane-related deaths in the United States. On a global scale, a staggering 5 million individuals succumb annually to heat-related causes.

It’s the vulnerable—the elderly, the infirm, the impoverished, and the homeless—who bear the brunt of the heat’s fury. While the affluent and middle class can retreat to air-conditioned havens, this worsens the situation by increasing CO2 emissions due to electricity consumption. Tragic deaths also resulted from floods triggered by the capacity of warm air to hold more moisture during storms. This summer, the Northeast and Pakistan suffered devastating flooding, while the western United States faced both replenishing rains and ruinous floods that razed homes and farmland. The inevitability of future droughts looms ominously.

The cumulative impact of heatwaves and deluges translates into billions of dollars in damages and lost productivity, while concurrently producing a wave of climate refugees forced to migrate in search of survival. And yet, as harrowing as this scenario may seem, it represents only the inception of the irreversible harm we are inflicting upon our planetary abode.

Across the globe, mountain glaciers are receding, thereby imperiling the dependable water sources of millions. Coral reefs, which took centuries to flourish and serve as the ocean’s nurseries, are succumbing to warm water and heightened acidity. Their demise would herald the extinction of myriad marine species that rely on these reefs for habitation and breeding, irrevocably altering the oceans and the food chain.

Simultaneously, ocean levels continue to rise. Reduced ice coverage around Antarctica—though seemingly inconsequential—compromises the stability of the continent’s ice sheets. The shrinking North Pole ice cap further exacerbates oceanic heat absorption, as ice normally reflects sunlight. The central question revolves around the pace at which this climatic catastrophe will unfurl. Some experts foresee the worst-case scenario unfolding in the next century, while others sound the alarm about tipping points that could propel the crisis to rapid escalation.

“If we are able to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, U.S. sea level in 2100 is projected to be around 0.6 meters (2 feet) higher on average than it was in 2000,” according to NOAA. “On a pathway with high greenhouse gas emissions and rapid ice sheet collapse, models project that average sea level rise for the contiguous United States could be 2.2 meters (7.2 feet) by 2100 and 3.9 meters (13 feet) by 2150.”

Two ominous climate scenarios portend swifter calamity. Firstly, the destabilization and eventual release of all Greenland’s ice into the sea would translate into a 6.5-foot sea level rise. Secondly, the unfreezing of Siberian permafrost could unleash a methane deluge, propelling an abrupt global warming event. As the 22nd century dawns, future generations will not revere our technological advancements. Rather, they will condemn our legacy of failing to avert the impending environmental catastrophe, much like we condemn past generations for turning a blind eye to atrocities.

The toll will be immeasurable: millions of lives lost, potentially half the world’s population, alongside enduring suffering for billions in a resource-depleted world. Governments will crumble, chaos will reign, and Earth will bear little semblance to its former self. This devastation resonates even more acutely with believers who view this as a desecration of the divine creation bestowed upon humanity—a gift now squandered. Instead of cherishing this gift, we’ve acted as reckless children, shattering our blessings without a second thought.

Though Christians advocate shouldering burdens akin to Jesus’s cross, our actions have constructed burdens for the generations that follow. As the echoes of historical wars, pandemics, and socio-political upheavals fade, the inhabitants of future centuries will castigate us for our negligence. They will inquire why we allowed global warming to spiral out of control, despite possessing the knowledge and means to intervene. It’s a question that will resonate far beyond technological innovation—a question we must confront before our complacency seals the fate of our only home.

Jesus tells us, “Do not be afraid.” I must confess that I am terrified by what is coming even though I know I will be dead before the worst happens. For once, I am happy I don’t have children. I pray for a miracle, a deus ex machina, even though we do not deserve one.

To those not yet born, all I can say is, “I’m sorry.” But I don’t expect you to forgive us.

(IPS) – The dangerous state of global climate has reached a new low as a World Metrological Organisation (WMO) analysis reveals. It confirms a known obvious: human activities continue to worsen conditions that have changed our planet’s climate.

Most distressing is that ‘there is a 66 per cent likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.’

With under five years before the much dreaded 1.5 degrees set by the Paris Agreement becomes a reality – and with it ‘a 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record’ – politicians and policy-makers have received the loudest definitive clarion call that should induce urgent and fundamental changes in approaches to mitigating and adapting to climate change impacts.

It had been known for decades that the African continent is highly vulnerable to such impacts as drought, flooding and heatwaves. What remains unknown but can be reasonably discerned is the scale of human catastrophe and its resulting global impacts that are certain to happen should – so far unsuccessful – climate governance approaches remain unchanged.

Already observed impacts of climate change

It is now reasonable to conclude that climate actions that should have been undertaken at a continental scale will not be completed within five years to avert climate change impacts. Over decades, predictions in earlier International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports have already become a reality.

Its latest special report – focused on the 1.5 degrees threshold – details climate impacts that have claimed lives and livelihoods among Africans who contributed the least to climate change. Six climate impacts assessed between ‘medium, high and very high confidence’ such as displacement, heat and losses in agriculture and crop production, are no longer just predictions — and are certain to further increase within the next five years.

A certain outcome of this will be increases in false solutions, such as techno-scientific babble to spray silver iodide into the atmosphere to create rain, as well as inflame nationalistic policy responses, such as the British government’s current inhumane policy to return a growing number of people fleeing from the most vulnerable continent to climate change impacts.

Any effort, worthy of being considered serious, to avert further callous suffering and wanton waste of lives across Africa during the next five years, must aim at implementing climate mitigation and adaptation projects at a scope, continental scale and rate that surpasses the frequency of recent environmental disasters.

Before the onset of these WMO’s predictions, those most responsible for climate change saw and mostly ignored as distant problems, the starvation in Ethiopia, catastrophic drought in Kenya and cyclone in Zimbabwe that affected millions, killed thousands and, since 2021, displaced some 1.5 million searching for food and water in Somalia.

But such a short-sighted understanding of cascading impacts resulting from extreme weather and environmental conditions induced by a changed global climate will only worsen the situation. Further, beyond five years, social outcomes across Africa would, in the long-term, represent persistent social pressures, including from those with the courage to maintain a moral sting on the conscience of politicians in developed countries.

A most certain of those is the changing demography of Africa, as ‘more than half of global population growth between now and 2050 is expected to occur in Africa.’ In sub-Saharan Africa, the population is projected to grow from 258 million in 1984 to over 1.6 bn in the next seven years. It would be a natural outcome that these lives will relentlessly escape barren farmlands and flood communities that no longer sustain their lives for those in Europe and elsewhere.

Reports of thousands of lives lost at sea should signal to politicians that risks faced by those seeking refuge by crossing the Mediterranean Sea, using over-crowded and rickety boats, are not sufficient deterrence to outweigh their perceptions of protection in developed countries that are comparably more adapted to climate change impacts and with mitigation solutions.

Another reason for urgent changes to addressing climate change is that assistance to developing countries to aid humanitarian disasters are constrained by inflation in developed economies, the political climate in donor countries and unforeseen developments, such as the recent Covid19 pandemic.

And so, within the next five years, the resulting environmental disasters from a world warmed to 1.5 degrees, coupled with national economic pressures in developed countries such as inflation, which reduces foreign aid, inconsistent national policy-making from short-term political cycles and misplaced national priorities on overseas development assistance (ODA) – such that saw Somalia ranked tenth on a list of top-ten recipients of gross ODA between 2020 and 2021, during the same period the country was experiencing a profound humanitarian crisis – will contribute to creating a global humanitarian catastrophe perhaps not seen since the end of the Second World War.

The need for large-scale transformations

Unlike Western Europe, which was rebuilt on the Marshall Plan, a similar plan may be unnecessary for Africa, had developed countries honoured promises on climate change assistance. But climate finance promises to honour yet more broken promises have not stopped African countries’ from increasing their resilience and reducing the continent’s high vulnerability to climate change impacts.

They continue to play by UNFCCC rules and have deposited plans, including plans to implement plans, to mitigate and adapt to climate change. But as the UNFCCC has found, virtually all National Determined Contributions, from some 100 countries, ‘need international support for technology development and transfer to implement.’

Since as many countries have been waiting for decades for such support, it is reasonable to suspect the finance needed will not arrive in less than five years. And so, national efforts to protect lives across Africa have largely come to nought, while emissions outside the continent continue to rise, while ironically, the premature death of ‘King Coal’ still makes headline news in the foreign press.

Keeping that failure in mind, if the Paris Agreement could still be lauded as the greatest achievement on climate change, then the accord’s approach to implementing its solutions is its weakest. Whether it’s implementing mitigation and adaptation projects or transferring technologies from developed to developing countries, the inflated role and relevance of money to realise these solutions reduce the accord’s potential from a practical instrument to a simple conceptual document.

Its finance framework contributes to gestate and birth a marketplace of climate finance funds, greenwashing scams and initiatives informed by neoclassical free-market logic that, as yet, have failed to reduce global emissions. But where the framework should matter most – to stimulate climate finance flows to developing countries – remains an unmet need.

Yet, Africa’s persistent high vulnerability to climate change impacts isn’t for lack of climate finance, but one of access to money. One has only to observe that Africa has historically been at the bottom rung of recipients of public and private sector finance, such as foreign direct investments and overseas development assistance.

Climate finance, which must freely flow to fund renewable energy and climate-resilient projects, has followed suit. Until 2050, the continent would need, yearly, $240 bn to implement climate mitigation and adaptation measures, but received $15.7 bn in loans in 2020. It is more critical now than ever to understand that private financial markets are unsuitable for solving public problems.

Economic power has historically been centralised in developed countries and climate change impacts will not honour this historic disparity.

Decarbonising African economies implies societal, sectoral and infrastructural transformations at a scale unknown to human history. Yet, knowledge and technologies exist today to make this transformation a reality. But this evidently provides no assurance for their use, mainly because of the insistence that such transformation should be accomplished on the basis of neoclassical market logic.

Aside from such reasoning reflecting a certain measure of cognitive dissonance, it also suggests a wilful and callous condemnation of vulnerable lives to more death and unnecessary suffering. A practical and perhaps only option now is to consider implementing climate solutions outside the free economic market.

The second is to socialise these solutions. This henceforth should mean that decisions on how to provide electricity to hundreds of millions who’ve been living in perpetual darkness at sunset for generations, provide drought-resistant crops to those in barren farmlands and supply early warning systems to prevent deaths from extreme weather, must no longer be informed by neoclassical economic dictates. By orienting climate solutions towards social goals, human societies may minimally survive in a world warmed up to 1.5 degrees.

Michael Davies-Venn is a public policy analyst and communication expert. He works on global environmental governance with focus on climate mitigation and climate adaptation measures between developing and developed regions. He is Junior Fellow at Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam.

Source: International Politics and Society, published by the Global and European Policy Unit of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Hiroshimastrasse 28, D-10785 Berlin.

It is humid. Very warm. Furthermore, summer is only a few weeks away. A scorching heatwave is currently affecting Texas and a portion of the US’s southwest. At a certain point, in excess of 120 million Americans were under some type of intensity warning, the US Public Weather conditions Administration said. This represents more than one-third of the population.

The June heat not only shattered all-time records in the UK, but it also set new ones. It beat the previous record, set in 1940, by 0.9 degrees Celsius. That is a gigantic room for error.

Similar instances of unprecedented heat have occurred in Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa.

Therefore, it should come as no surprise that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather predicted that June would be the hottest on record globally.

The heat has also not subsided. The three most sizzling days at any point recorded were in the previous week, as per the EU environment and weather conditions administration, Copernicus.

According to Prof. Richard Betts, a climate scientist at the Met Office and the University of Exeter, these highs are consistent with what climate models predicted. On Monday, July 3, the average global temperature reached 16.89C, and on July 4, it reached 17.04C for the first time. Provisional data suggest that temperatures reached 17.05C on July 5.

He asserts, “We should not be at all surprised with the high temperatures around the world.” This is each of the an obvious sign of what we’ve known for quite a while, and we will see perpetually limits until we quit developing more ozone depleting substances in the air.”

We tend to focus on the temperature of the air when we consider how hot it is because that is what we experience every day.

Be that as it may, a large portion of the intensity put away close to the outer layer of the Earth isn’t in the environment, however in the seas. What’s more, we’ve been seeing a few record sea temperatures this spring and summer.

For instance, the North Atlantic is experiencing the highest surface water temperatures ever recorded at the moment.

That marine heatwave has been especially articulated around the banks of the UK, where a few regions have encountered temperatures however much 5C above what you would ordinarily expect for this season.

It has been classified as a heatwave of Category 4 by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Outside of the tropics, this term is rarely used, and it means “extreme” heat.

According to Daniela Schmidt, an Earth Sciences professor at the University of Bristol, “such anomalous temperatures in this part of the North Atlantic are unheard of.”

El Nio is a weather pattern that occurs frequently when warm waters rise to the surface and spread across the ocean off the coast of South America.

Global sea surface temperatures for both April and May were the highest ever recorded in Met Office data dating back to 1850, given that heatwaves were occurring in the Atlantic and Pacific.

Tim Lenton, a climate change professor at Exeter University, says that if the seas are warmer than usual, you can also expect higher air temperatures.

A large portion of the additional intensity caught by the development of ozone harming substances has gone into warming the surface sea, he makes sense of. That additional intensity will in general get blended downwards towards the more profound sea, however developments in seas flows – like El Niño – can take it back to the surface.

“At the point when that occurs, a great deal of that intensity gets delivered into the climate,” says Prof Lenton, “driving up air temperatures.”

It’s not difficult to consider this uncommonly blistering climate surprising, however the discouraging truth is that environmental change implies encountering record-breaking temperatures is presently ordinary.

Emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise annually. The pace of development has eased back somewhat, yet energy-related CO2 outflows were still up practically 1% last year, as indicated by the Worldwide Energy Organization, a worldwide energy guard dog.

According to Friederike Otto, a climatologist at the Grantham Institute of Climate Change at Imperial College London, the likelihood of heatwaves increases with the global temperature.

“These heatwaves are more continuous, yet in addition more blazing and longer than they would have been without an unnatural weather change,” she says.

Already, experts predict that the developing El Nio will likely make 2023 the hottest year on record.

They are concerned that it might temporarily push the world past a crucial 1.5C warming threshold. And that is only the beginning. Temperatures will continue to rise unless we drastically reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases.

The Met Office said for this present week that record June temperatures this year were made two times as reasonable in view of man-made environmental change.

Ecosystems around the world are already experiencing fundamental and almost certainly irreversible changes as a result of these rising temperatures.

For instance, unprecedented deaths of fish in UK rivers and canals were aided by record-setting June temperatures.

Prof. Schmidt of the University of Bristol warns that the UK will not be affected by the current marine heatwave because we have never experienced one this intense.

“In different areas, around Australia, in the Mediterranean, whole environments changed, kelp backwoods vanished, and seabirds and whales starved,” she says.

The world is successfully in a race.

It is clear we are speeding towards a consistently more sweltering and more tumultuous environment future, however we truly do have the advances and devices to cut our emanations.

Now, the question is whether we can move quickly enough to slow down the climate juggernaut and limit the effects of global warming to a level that is manageable.

Monday, July 3, was the hottest day ever recorded globally, according to data from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

The average global temperature reached 17.01 degrees Celsius (62.62 Fahrenheit), surpassing the August 2016 record of 16.92C (62.46F) as heatwaves sizzled around the world.

The southern U.S. has been suffering under an intense heat dome in recent weeks. In China, an enduring heatwave continued, with temperatures above 35C (95F). North Africa has seen temperatures near 50C (122F).

And even Antarctica, currently in its winter, registered anomalously high temperatures. Ukraine’s Vernadsky Research Base in the white continent’s Argentine Islands recently broke its July temperature record with 8.7C (47.6F).

“This is not a milestone we should be celebrating,” said climate scientist Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Britain’s Imperial College London.

“It’s a death sentence for people and ecosystems.”

Scientists said climate change, combined with an emerging El Nino pattern, were to blame.

“Unfortunately, it promises to only be the first in a series of new records set this year as increasing emissions of [carbon dioxide] and greenhouse gases coupled with a growing El Nino event push temperatures to new highs,” said Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth, in a statement.

Indian community in New York calls for action in Manipur

A resolution condemning violence was passed at the event which noted that the rioters’ objective appeared to be the ethnic cleansing of Christians from tribal land.

In the wake of the violent situation in Manipur, India, the Indian American Community in New York recently gathered at the Santoor Restaurant, New York to demand for the cessation of violence in the region. Dr Anna George, associate professor at Molloy University, led the program attended by about 23 eminent community leaders of various organizations and humanitarians who expressed concerns over the matter.

A resolution condemning violence was passed, which noted that the rioters’ objective appeared to be the ethnic cleansing of Christians from their tribal land. Addressing at the event, Dr. George said, “What is taking place in Manipur is horrible violations of human rights and religious freedom.”

Dr. George stressed on the need to support humanitarian crisis, as over 100 or more people were killed and about 80,000 people were displaced. “They are finding shelter in the forest; they have no homes to return to, so we must decide to do something to help the victims in Manipur,” she urged the audience.

Speaking at the event, George Abraham, vice chairman of Indian Overseas Congress, USA, highlighted the plight of Christians in the Kuki tribal community who have been primarily targeted. He added that in the absence of adequate shelter, food, and medicines the community has become refugees in their own homeland.

With support of organizations like the Federation of Indian Christian Organizations in North America (FIACONA) and others, the participants decided to organise a fundraising effort to support people in Manipur who have lost their homes.  Koshy George, FIACONA president lauded the initiative and appreciated those who came forward and pledged support to the cause.

The Atlantic hurricane season commences on June 1, with meteorologists closely monitoring increasing ocean temperatures – not just in the Atlantic, but around the world. In the spring of 2023, global sea surface temperatures capable of energizing hurricanes have reached unprecedented levels. However, for Atlantic hurricanes, the crucial ocean temperatures lie in two regions: the North Atlantic basin, where hurricanes originate and intensify, and the eastern-central tropical Pacific Ocean, the birthplace of El Niño.

This year, these two factors seem to be at odds, potentially leading to opposing impacts on the vital conditions that determine the outcome of an Atlantic hurricane season. Consequently, this could spell positive news for the Caribbean and Atlantic coasts with a near-average hurricane season in store. Nonetheless, meteorologists caution that this hurricane forecast is contingent upon the development of El Niño.

The makings of a hurricane

Generally, hurricanes are more likely to form and strengthen when a tropical low-pressure system comes across an environment with warm upper-ocean temperatures, atmospheric moisture, instability, and minimal vertical wind shear. Warm ocean temperatures fuel hurricane development, while vertical wind shear – the difference in strength and direction of winds between the lower and upper parts of a tropical storm – disrupts convection organization (thunderstorms) and introduces dry air into the storm, hindering its growth.

The Atlantic Ocean’s contribution

The Atlantic Ocean’s role is relatively simple. Hurricanes extract energy from the warm ocean water beneath them. The warmer the ocean temperatures, the more favorable conditions are for hurricanes, assuming all other factors remain equal. Tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures were exceptionally high during the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons in recent history. The 2020 season saw a record 30 named tropical cyclones, and the 2005 season produced 28 named storms, with 15 becoming hurricanes, including Hurricane Katrina.

The Pacific Ocean’s involvement

The tropical Pacific Ocean’s role in Atlantic hurricane formation is more complex. One may wonder how ocean temperatures on the opposite side of the Americas can impact Atlantic hurricanes. The answer lies in teleconnections – a series of processes where a change in the ocean or atmosphere in one region leads to large-scale alterations in atmospheric circulation and temperature, influencing weather elsewhere. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a recurring pattern of tropical Pacific climate variability that initiates teleconnections.

When the tropical eastern-central Pacific Ocean is unusually warm, El Niño can form. During El Niño events, warm upper-ocean temperatures alter vertical and east-west atmospheric circulation in the tropics, initiating a teleconnection that affects east-west winds in the upper atmosphere throughout the tropics, ultimately resulting in stronger vertical wind shear in the Atlantic basin. This wind shear can suppress hurricanes.

Forecasters expect this to occur in the upcoming summer, with a 90% likelihood of El Niño developing by August and remaining strong throughout the fall peak of the hurricane season.

A tug-of-war between Atlantic and Pacific influences

Research by atmospheric scientists, including my own, has shown that a warm Atlantic and a warm tropical Pacific tend to counteract each other, resulting in near-average Atlantic hurricane seasons. Both observations and climate model simulations support this outcome. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 2023 forecast predicts a near-average season with 12-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes. An earlier outlook from Colorado State University forecasters anticipates a slightly below-average season, with 13 named storms compared to a climatological average of 14.4.

Wild cards to consider

While tropical Atlantic and Pacific Ocean temperatures often contribute to accurate seasonal hurricane forecasts, other factors should be considered and monitored. First, will the predicted El Niño and Atlantic warming occur? If one or both do not, it could tip the balance in the tug-of-war between influences. The Atlantic Coast should hope for El Niño to develop as forecasted, as such events often decrease hurricane impacts in the region. If this year’s anticipated Atlantic Ocean warming were paired with La Niña – El Niño’s opposite, characterized by cooler tropical Pacific waters – it could potentially lead to a record-breaking active season.

Two additional factors are also crucial: the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a pattern of clouds and rainfall that moves eastward through the tropics on a 30-90 day timescale and can either promote or suppress tropical storm formation, and dust storms from the Saharan air layer, which contains warm, dry, and dusty air from Africa that can inhibit tropical cyclones.

Greenland, the world’s largest island situated in the Arctic, is typically covered in ice. However, as temperatures in the far north are rising more rapidly than in most other regions on Earth, its vast ice sheets are melting into an increasingly warm ocean.

A recent study discovered that Greenland has not experienced such warmth in a millennium. This unprecedented Arctic thaw contributed to 40% of the global sea-level rise in 2019. Researchers are alarmed by the potential disintegration of Greenland’s Petermann Glacier. Located on the ocean’s edge, its retreat will leave the enormous ice sheets behind it exposed to warming seawater. Scientists who have been analyzing the glacier warn that the anticipated sea-level rise could potentially double.

The rapid shrinking of Earth’s largest ice sheet presents a significant risk to low-lying islands and coastal regions susceptible to rising sea levels. Meanwhile, the Indigenous Inuit population in Greenland is quite literally living on fragile ice, which signifies a diminishing habitat for native fauna such as seals, bears, and walruses.

In the southern polar region of Antarctica, the extent of sea ice had been growing by roughly 1% per decade since the 1970s. However, last year it reached its lowest recorded level. Concerns are mounting that the Thwaites Glacier, equivalent in size to Florida and the planet’s largest ice mass, is beginning to fracture due to warming Antarctic waters.

Given the southern polar region’s remoteness, researchers are still attempting to determine the full extent of the potential damage in the area.

Reasons Behind Faster Arctic Warming Compared to Antarctic

Between 1979 and 2021, a span of over four decades, the Arctic experienced warming at a rate four times faster than the rest of the world, according to scientists. Consequently, it is not surprising that researchers have confirmed that two-thirds of global ice melt is occurring in Greenland.

The situation is so dire that the majority of the vast Greenland ice sheet is projected to melt if global temperatures rise by 1.6 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels around 250 years ago. Currently, the world has warmed by approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius. If the ice sheet melts, sea levels could potentially rise by up to seven meters.

Experts suggest that the Arctic is warming more rapidly than the Antarctic due to the presence of significantly more liquid water surrounding the region during summer and autumn, when sea ice recedes. This water absorbs sunlight, unlike ice which reflects it, leading to increased ocean warming.

As the Arctic primarily consists of an ocean with sea ice, it has been more affected by rising ocean temperatures than the Antarctic, which is predominantly comprised of ice-covered land. Furthermore, the ocean currents in the Southern Ocean tend to draw up deep, cold water, which helps maintain cooler temperatures in the Antarctic region.

Nevertheless, ice melt in the Antarctic is on the rise, showing an increase of approximately 65% compared to the 1990s.

The Importance of Glaciers as “Water Towers”

Global warming, primarily caused by the burning of fossil fuels and the subsequent release of greenhouse gases, is not only affecting polar glaciers but also the world’s mountain glaciers.

There are approximately 200,000 mountain glaciers worldwide, and they are currently melting at a rate faster than they can accumulate. Despite covering less than 0.5% of Earth’s surface, these “water towers” supply fresh water to nearly one-quarter of the global population. These glaciers also contribute to the rivers that irrigate crops essential for the sustenance of hundreds of millions of people across Asia, South America, and Europe. Without these glaciers, many individuals may face both thirst and hunger.

Scientists warn that the retreat of these water towers puts nearly 2 billion people at risk of water scarcity. In South America, cities like Santiago, Chile, have witnessed their drinking water supplies dwindle as nearby Andes Mountain glaciers recede. Furthermore, the European Alps’ glaciers, which provide a significant amount of fresh water throughout the region, have diminished by about half since 1900. If efforts to curb warming are not increased, these glaciers could be nearly ice-free by the end of the century.

The Impact of Rock and Dirt on Glacial Melting Rates

Rock and dirt-covered glaciers typically melt more rapidly than cleaner ice, as the darker materials absorb greater amounts of solar energy. Scientists report that these stones and rocks can reach temperatures as high as 40 degrees Celsius at high elevations, accelerating ice melting and potentially leading to a wider glacial meltdown.

However, a new issue has emerged in the western Greenland ice sheet: the unexplained appearance of purple algae. This algae darkens the ice surface, absorbing more sunlight. In response to UV radiation, the algae blooms turn purple as a protective measure, but eventually become a sooty black color, which further amplifies the heating process.

Southeast Asia is in the midst of a weeks-long heat wave, breaking temperature records in Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand. In Vietnam, the temperature reached 44.2 degrees Celsius, the highest ever recorded in the country. Laos hit 43.5 degrees Celsius, breaking the national record. Thailand, suffering under temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius, saw Bangkok record its hottest ever temperature of 41 degrees Celsius. The heatwave has brought misery to millions, with pollution levels spiking in Thailand’s capital due to increased levels of smog.

The heatwave in Southeast Asia is not a freak event, but the latest in a series of temperature extremes that experts warn will become more common as the climate crisis accelerates. A 2022 study predicts that temperatures of 39.4 degrees Celsius and above will occur between three and 10 times more often by the end of the century. Moreover, in the tropics–which includes much of Asia, days of “extremely dangerous heat”–defined as 51 degrees Celsius–could double, putting the populations of impacted countries at risk.

“By definition, we don’t know what could happen if large populations are exposed to unprecedented heat and humidity stress,” warns Lucas Vargas Zeppetello, the lead author of the study from Harvard University, “but heat waves in the past few decades have already been extremely deadly and there is serious cause for concern in the future.”

The scorching temperatures are causing significant problems in Southeast Asia, where the heat is being exacerbated by pollution from slash-and-burn agriculture. Moreover, the heat is also hindering vaccination efforts in the region. Thailand is among the countries that is struggling to get its population vaccinated, and the heat has further complicated efforts.

As heatwaves become more dangerous, it would become increasingly difficult for populations to adapt to the scorching temperatures. “We found this threshold at which populations begin to be meaningfully impacted by extremely high temperatures,” said Kristina Dahl, a senior climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “Climate change is pushing us closer to that threshold faster than we had expected.”

While the heatwave is expected to cool in the coming days, it remains to be seen how frequently such heatwaves will occur in the future as a result of the climate crisis. Research into the causes of these extreme weather patterns is ongoing, with many climate scientists calling for urgent action to be taken before it is too late. As the heatwave in Southeast Asia demonstrates, these extreme weather events can have devastating impacts on human health and well-being.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has predicted that El Niño is on its way this fall, due to soaring ocean temperatures. The anomaly is likely to disrupt weather patterns and cause more extreme weather in the US and across the world. Forecasters suggest that the pattern may change rainfall patterns, increase average air temperatures and fuel more intense storm systems. El Niño will combine with climate change to raise air and sea temperatures still further, with a significant detrimental impact anticipated. In June, sea surface temperatures hit levels not seen for four decades.

John Abraham of the University of St. Thomas says that rising surface temperatures add moisture and heat to the atmosphere intensifying weather patterns resulting in extreme weather. El Niño and the broader trend of rising global temperatures are likely to lead to record temperatures and increase the harm caused by climate change.

The globe has experienced a La Niña trend for the previous three years, which has had a moderating effect. However, the WMO has now forecast an 80% chance of El Niño arriving by September 2018.

El Niño is generally associated with cooler, wetter weather in the southern half of the US and warmer weather in the north. The forthcoming phenomenon could lead to a prolonged dry season in parts of the US such as the Ohio River Valley. Ocean temperatures in turn are calculated by machines that monitor temperature movement in the sea. Rising sea temperatures indicate the beginning of the El Niño.

Ocean waters retain much more of the energy produced by human warming than the atmosphere does. More than 90% of the energy imbalance caused by human activity is absorbed by the oceans. This means that the rising temperatures are creating a significant issue for people, agriculture and societies, rather than just animals such as seals or polar bears.

Scientists at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography say that ocean heat content is the most important metric in predicting climate change because the added heat is largely contained beneath the sea surface. “Ocean heat content is the most important metric we should be paying attention to when we think about climate change because it’s really at the heart of what this global imbalance is,” said Sarah Purkey, assistant professor of physical oceanography. Within the ocean, scientists have found an unwavering warming trend.

Trillions of tons of cold salty water sinking to great depths off the coast of Antarctica drive the deepest flows of the “overturning” circulation – a network of strong currents spanning the world’s oceans. This circulation carries heat, carbon, oxygen, and nutrients around the globe and fundamentally influences climate, sea level, and the productivity of marine ecosystems.

However, there are concerns that these currents are slowing down and may even collapse, which could deprive the deep ocean of oxygen, limit the return of nutrients back to the sea surface, and potentially cause further melt back of ice as water near the ice shelves warms in response. Such a scenario would have major global ramifications for ocean ecosystems, climate, and sea-level rise. A new research published on March 29 in the journal Nature uses ocean model projections to show that the Antarctic overturning circulation will slow down, and the deep ocean will warm over the next few decades.

Physical measurements confirm that these changes are already well underway, and climate change is to blame. As Antarctica melts, more freshwater flows into the oceans, disrupting the sinking of cold, salty, oxygen-rich water to the bottom of the ocean. This disruption could end the normal spread of this water northwards, which ventilates the far reaches of the deep Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans, and all of this could happen in our lifetimes.

Antarctic Overturning Circulation: The Consequences of a Slowdown or Collapse

Approximately 250 trillion tons of frigid Antarctic surface water descends to the ocean abyss each year as part of the overturning process, which is offset by upwelling at different latitudes. The resulting overturning circulation brings oxygen to the deep ocean and eventually returns nutrients to the sea surface, providing support for marine life.

If the Antarctic overturning slows, nutrient-rich seawater will accumulate on the seafloor, potentially damaging fisheries. Furthermore, a change in the overturning circulation could increase the amount of heat reaching the ice, particularly in West Antarctica, accelerating global sea-level rise. A slowdown would also reduce the ocean’s capacity to absorb carbon dioxide, increasing greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere, which would worsen the situation.

A weakening of the Antarctic overturning circulation caused by melting could shift tropical rainfall bands northward by around 1,000 kilometers. In summary, a reduction or collapse of the overturning circulation would have significant and potentially irreversible impacts on our climate and marine environment.

Antarctic Ocean Melting

Planning and executing field campaigns in the remote oceans surrounding Antarctica is a daunting task due to the challenging conditions. The long voyages, harsh weather, and sea ice make it difficult to access the area, resulting in limited data on the changes in the Antarctic margin.

However, the available data indicates an increase in warm water transport towards Antarctica, leading to ice melt in critical locations. The signs of melting around Antarctica’s edges are evident, with a considerable amount of freshwater flowing into the ocean, resulting in reduced salinity and density of the nearby waters. Consequently, the overturning circulation slows down as denser water sinks, and lighter water does not.

How was it found out?

Insufficient data and incomplete models have restricted our comprehension of ocean circulation in the Antarctic region, as per a recent study. The latest analysis of global coupled model projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change demonstrates biases in the region, limiting the models’ capacity to anticipate the future of the Antarctic overturning circulation. To explore potential changes, the researchers utilized a high-resolution global ocean model that realistically mimics the development and sinking of dense water near Antarctica.

They conducted three separate experiments to isolate the effects of changes in temperature, wind, and meltwater from Antarctica and Greenland. The study discovered that the overturning circulation around Antarctica is expected to slow by over 40 percent in the next 30 years, primarily due to pulses of meltwater. Moreover, the model also predicts a 20 percent reduction in the renowned North Atlantic overturning circulation, which moderates Europe’s climate, leading to a significant decrease in the renewal and overturning of the ocean interior. The study’s outcomes suggest that the Antarctic region will experience changes similar to those of its northern hemisphere counterpart.

Next Step

According to research, much of the abyssal ocean has experienced warming in recent decades, particularly near Antarctica, which is consistent with model simulations. However, the projections for the future extend only until 2050, beyond which continued warming and melting of ice sheets are expected without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

As a result, the Southern Ocean’s overturning is predicted to continue slowing throughout the century and beyond, directly related to the influx of freshwater from melting ice. This meltwater flow is a direct consequence of global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

The study also warns that continuing ice melt could alter the massive overturning circulation currents, leading to further ice melt, sea level rise, and climate and ecosystem damage worldwide. The study concludes that urgent action is necessary to address the climate crisis.

My dear great-great-granddaughter,

I wish I could be with you as you open this letter in the year 2100.

My mind is flooded with curiosity about your life, your hopes and dreams, and what kind of world is outside your window.

But I must confess, I am fixed on one question: Will you open this letter in a spirit of happiness and gratitude—or with disappointment and anger at my generation?

As I write you in 2023, humanity is losing the fight of our lives: the battle against climate upheaval that threatens our planet.

If I were with you now, you might ask if we saw disaster coming.

Yes, we did.

We are making a mess of our planet through bottomless greed, timid action, and an addiction to fossil fuels that is driving temperatures to unlivable new highs around the world every year.

Scientists, civil society, the U.N.—and most inspiring of all, young people—have led the charge for climate action. But too many leaders have failed to step up.

Today, our world stands at a crossroads, with two paths before us that will have a direct impact on your future.

The first leads to a future of relentless temperature rise, deadly droughts and famines, melting glaciers, and rising seas. Communities ravaged and erased by floods and wildfires. Extinction and biodiversity loss on an epic scale.

In short, a trail of destruction.

The second path leads to the legacy you deserve: breathable air, better health, sustainable food systems, clean water, and robust, circular economies. A future powered by renewable energy and high-quality green jobs.

I am determined that humanity follows this second path. We have the information we need. We have the tools and technology.

What we need is the political will to forge a peace pact with nature and transform how we grow food, use land, fuel transport, and power economies.

Wealthy countries must help less-wealthy ones cut carbon emissions and make huge investments in renewable energy and the protection of vulnerable communities.

Of course, even if we take all these actions, our climate will still change in dramatic fashion by the time you are born.

But we can limit the damage, and provide every country and community with ways to adapt and become more resilient.

A future with only 1.5°C (2.7°F) of global warming may not deliver us to climate heaven, but it will save us from climate hell.

So which path did my generation take?

My dear great-great-granddaughter, by the time you open this letter, you will have your answer. You will know whether we succeeded or failed in our fight for your future.

You are decades from birth, but I already hear you. The central question from you and all humanity both haunts and motivates me.

“What did you do to save our planet and our future when you had the chance?”

I will not relent in making sure my generation answers that essential call.

I will stand for climate action; climate justice; and the better, more peaceful, and sustainable world you and all generations deserve.

(António Guterres is one of TIME’s 2023 Earth Award honorees and is the Secretary-General of the U.N. – Courtesy: TIME.com)

The Water Bank Foundation (WBF) Trust, a non-profit, held five events at the United Nations World Water Day conference which falls annually on March 22.

The WBF Trust introduced 100 top innovations from India around World Water Day, related to water conservation, according to an April 3, 2023, press release from the organization.

The events included the global launch of next generation drinking water purifier, kick-starting tech enabled mission BarterWATER for sustainability, as well as virtual events to boost the role of social institutions like Academia & Panchayat for water action.

The webinars in conjunction with the UN 2023 Water Conference, “allowed almost 250 experts to brainstorm to align to boost UN’s recognized Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) via India’s local self-governance model – Panchayat,” the press release said.

More than 30 academics, politicians, world leaders, and industry professionals took part in the March 24 sessions in New York, highlighting the “benefits of Healing Water Meditation, to highlight the importance of water within us, and around us.”

The global launch of OáS Well Drinking Water Purifier, a   leap in clean-water technology, part of the Top 100 innovations in India, topped the list of innovations in WASH (Global Water, Sanitation and Hygiene). The day ended with the introduction of Water Bank Foundation’s flagship mission, BarterWATER for sustainability, “to make water the basis of a local-sustainable economy, and to use drinking water as the basis to boost the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

At the live event, Rajat Gupta, chairman of  WHEELS Global Foundation and Ruyintan (Ron) Mehta, president of  WIN Foundation, signed an MOU with VAS Bros. Enterprises Pvt. Ltd., (Organic Aqua Solutions) in an effort to pilot a sustainable model for Arsenic-mitigation, in one panchayat (a cluster of Arsenic-poisoned villages) in Bihar.

“Apart from providing a sustainable solution to avail arsenic-free, pure, safe, and healthy drinking water to the villagers, we aim to demonstrate a robust rural WASH model using bartering water for the behavior change in sanitation,” Saket Kumar, president and managing trustee of Water Bank Foundation Trust, is quoted saying in the press release.

Founded by Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) alumni, WGF focuses on their six pillars; water, health, education, energy, livelihood, and sustainability while WIN Foundation supports and facilitates innovation in the areas of Water and Sanitation (WatSan) and Maternal and Child Health (MCH), primarily in India and apply it in empowering and improving the lives of underprivileged sections in a sustainable manner.

The final UN event hosted by Water Bank Foundation focused on highlighting the role of academia to boost sustainable technology development, an event in which more than a dozen water action agenda commitments were taken by WBF, and its partner organizations.

Newswise — A new study reveals that the mass loss of lake-terminating glaciers in the greater Himalaya has been significantly underestimated, due to the inability of satellites to see glacier changes occurring underwater, with critical implications for the region’s future projections of glacier disappearance and water resources.

Published in Nature Geoscience on April 3, the study was conducted by an international team including researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Graz University of Technology (Austria), the University of St. Andrews (UK), and Carnegie Mellon University (USA).

The researchers found that a previous assessment underestimated the total mass loss of lake-terminating glaciers in the greater Himalaya by 6.5%. The most significant underestimation of 10% occurred in the central Himalaya, where glacial lake growth was the most rapid. A particularly interesting case is Galong Co in this region, with a high underestimation of 65%.

This oversight was largely due to the limitations of satellite imaging in detecting underwater changes, which has led to a knowledge gap in our understanding of the full extent of glacier loss. From 2000 to 2020, proglacial lakes in the region increased by 47% in number, 33% in area, and 42% in volume. This expansion resulted in an estimated glacier mass loss of around 2.7 Gt, equivalent to 570 million elephants, or over 1,000 times the total number of elephants in the world. This loss was not considered by previous studies since the utilized satellite data can only measure the lake water surface but not underwater ice that is replaced by water.

“These findings have important implications for understanding the impact of regional water resources and glacial lake outburst floods,” said lead author ZHANG Guoqing from the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS.

By accounting for the mass loss from lake-terminating glaciers, the researchers can more accurately assess the annual mass balance of these glaciers compared to land-terminating ones, thus further highlighting the accelerated glacier mass loss across the greater Himalaya.

The study also highlights the need to understand the mechanisms driving glacier mass loss and the underestimated mass loss of lake-terminating glaciers globally, which is estimated to be around 211.5 Gt, or roughly 12%, between 2000 and 2020.

“This emphasizes the importance of incorporating subaqueous mass loss from lake-terminating glaciers in future mass-change estimates and glacier evolution models, regardless of the study region,” said co-corresponding author Tobias Bolch from Graz University of Technology.

David Rounce, a co-author from Carnegie Mellon University, noted that in the long run, the mass loss from lake-terminating glaciers may continue to be a major contributor to total mass loss throughout the 21^st century as glaciers with significant mass loss may disappear more rapidly compared to existing projections.

“By more accurately accounting for glacier mass loss, researchers can better predict future water resource availability in the sensitive mountain region,” said co-author YAO Tandong, who also co-chairs Third Pole Environment (TPE), an international science program for interdisciplinary study of the relationships among water, ice, climate, and humankind in the region and beyond.