Category: USA

Analysts from Goldman Sachs have issued a warning that former President Donald Trump’s return to office and the implementation of his proposed economic policies could result in a decline in U.S. economic performance. In particular, they highlighted that Trump’s plans to impose stricter immigration policies and levy new tariffs on Chinese goods could significantly reduce the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Goldman Sachs’ forecast suggests that if Trump wins the 2024 election, the U.S. economy could experience a reduction in GDP growth by about half a percentage point in the latter half of 2025. However, the report also indicated that the economy could see some recovery the following year. “We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse,” Goldman analysts wrote in their analysis on Tuesday.

According to their predictions, Trump’s economic policies, particularly those focused on tariffs and immigration, would have a greater negative impact on growth than the potential benefits from any fiscal stimulus measures his administration might introduce. The Goldman analysts were cautious about how these proposals could affect broader economic conditions, particularly in relation to international trade and labor markets.

Trump’s proposal to increase tariffs on Chinese imports, aimed at reducing America’s trade deficit, was a key point in his economic agenda during his previous tenure. However, while such measures may aim to protect American industries, they also risk escalating trade tensions with China, one of the United States’ largest trading partners. These tariffs could lead to increased costs for U.S. consumers and businesses, which might slow down economic growth.

Moreover, the report raised concerns about Trump’s intention to tighten immigration laws. Restrictive immigration policies could limit the availability of labor, particularly in industries that heavily rely on immigrant workers, such as agriculture, construction, and healthcare. A shortage of workers in these sectors could disrupt supply chains and drive up wages, leading to inflationary pressures.

On the other hand, Goldman Sachs analysts provided a contrasting economic outlook in the event of a Harris presidency, particularly if Vice President Kamala Harris were to win the 2024 election with Democratic control of Congress. They predicted that her economic policies could lead to more favorable growth outcomes, with spending initiatives and tax credits acting as significant drivers of economic expansion.

Goldman analysts argued that Harris’s proposed policies would “more than offset” the negative impact of a higher corporate income tax rate, which she has suggested raising to 28 percent. The analysts believe that these spending initiatives would stimulate the economy by boosting investments in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, among other areas.

The corporate tax rate has been a contentious issue in U.S. politics. Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent, a move that was designed to spur business investment and economic growth. However, Harris, like President Biden, has called for the corporate tax rate to be increased to 28 percent to fund social programs and reduce the national deficit. Biden’s recent budget proposal also included this tax increase as a way to balance the government’s fiscal policies.

In a scenario where Harris wins the presidency but Congress remains divided between Republicans and Democrats, Goldman Sachs predicted a more neutral outcome for the economy. In this case, policy changes would likely be minimal, resulting in little to no effect on GDP growth. “Policy changes would be small and have a neutral effect on GDP,” the Goldman report stated.

The Harris-Walz campaign expressed optimism about their economic vision. Joseph Costello, a spokesperson for the Harris-Walz campaign, highlighted the positive impact their policies could have on middle-class families and small businesses. “Vice President Harris has a positive vision to strengthen the economy by building up the middle class, cutting taxes and lowering costs for working families and small businesses, and creating opportunities for all Americans to get ahead. On the economy, the choice could not be any more clear this November,” Costello said.

Despite the attention on Trump’s and Harris’s policies, the Trump campaign has yet to provide a response to Goldman Sachs’ predictions. The analysis of the economic outlook for a potential Trump presidency comes at a time when the country is already facing numerous challenges, including inflation, labor shortages, and fluctuating job market conditions.

In addition to concerns about the long-term economic policies of the next administration, Goldman Sachs also pointed out the potential impact of short-term monetary policy changes under the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates in September, marking the first rate cut in over five years. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, as of Wednesday, there is a 57 percent chance of a quarter-point rate cut.

A report from the U.S. Labor Department released on Wednesday, which showed weaker-than-expected job openings, has increased the likelihood of a more significant rate cut. However, most analysts believe that a quarter-point reduction remains the most probable scenario.

This news follows the release of the July jobs report, which revealed a slight increase in unemployment, rising from 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent. While this uptick is modest, it has raised concerns about the overall strength of the labor market. A slowdown in hiring, combined with ongoing inflationary pressures, could influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions in the coming months.

Further complicating the economic picture is the ongoing behavior of bond markets, where yield curves are beginning to show signs of renormalization. Yield curves, which plot the interest rates of bonds of varying maturities, have been inverted for the past two years. An inverted yield curve, where short-term bonds yield more than long-term bonds, is often seen as a signal of an impending recession. However, the bond market is now showing signs that this inversion may be coming to an end, with the 10-year Treasury yield starting to pay out more than the 2-year Treasury yield.

Despite these warning signs, a recession has yet to materialize, leaving some market analysts cautiously optimistic. Nevertheless, the outcome of the 2024 election could significantly shape the future economic landscape, as the next president will inherit an economy facing numerous challenges, from inflation to labor shortages to international trade tensions.

As the election approaches, voters will have a stark choice between two very different economic visions. While Trump’s policies focus on protecting American industries through tariffs and reducing immigration, Harris has positioned herself as a champion of the middle class, advocating for higher corporate taxes and increased government spending to stimulate economic growth.

Ultimately, the direction of the U.S. economy in the coming years will depend not only on the policies of the next president but also on global economic conditions and domestic market dynamics. As Goldman Sachs analysts have shown, the economic consequences of the 2024 election could be significant, making it a critical issue for both policymakers and voters alike.

Democratic presidential candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris, on September 4, made an impassioned plea for Americans to put an end to the “epidemic of gun violence” in the country. This call to action came in response to a mass shooting that took place at Apalachee High School in Winder, Georgia, which claimed the lives of four individuals. Harris used the occasion to once again push for stricter gun safety measures, including a ban on assault weapons, despite the staunch opposition from Republican leaders.

Speaking at a rally in New Hampshire, Harris expressed her deep sorrow over the shooting in Georgia, which added to the growing number of mass shootings across the nation in recent years. “This is just a senseless tragedy, on top of so many senseless tragedies,” Harris stated, reflecting the emotions of many Americans who have become all too familiar with the frequent news of gun violence.

The mass shooting at the Georgia high school was one of the hundreds of such incidents that have rocked the United States in 2024 alone. Harris pointed to this tragic reality, acknowledging the fears that parents across the country experience daily. “It’s just outrageous that every day in our country, in the United States of America, that parents send their children to school worried about whether or not their child will come home alive,” she said. Harris emphasized that while these mass shootings have become alarmingly common, they do not represent an inevitable reality for the country. “We have to end this epidemic of gun violence in our country once and for all. It doesn’t have to be this way,” she stressed.

In the wake of this tragedy, Harris renewed her call for stronger gun control measures, specifically advocating for a ban on assault weapons. Such a position has drawn fierce resistance from many Republicans who argue that it infringes on the rights of gun owners. Despite this opposition, Harris remains committed to her stance on gun control, echoing a sentiment she has shared throughout her political career. She highlighted the need for Congress to pass a new assault weapons ban, similar to the one that had been enacted in 1994 during President Joe Biden’s time as a senator. That law had expired in 2004, and efforts to reinstate it have repeatedly stalled in Congress since then.

Harris didn’t stop at the assault weapons ban. She also called for universal background checks, a policy that would ensure all firearm buyers undergo a criminal history review, regardless of where they purchase their guns. In addition, she advocated for the adoption of “red flag” laws, which would allow authorities to prevent individuals deemed dangerous from buying or possessing firearms. These red flag laws, known as state protective orders, aim to reduce gun violence by proactively identifying potential threats before they escalate into tragedy.

“It is a false choice to say you’re either in favor of the Second Amendment or you want to take everyone’s guns away,” Harris said, addressing a long-standing argument from gun rights advocates. Harris has repeatedly argued that common-sense gun control laws can coexist with the constitutional rights of Americans to bear arms. “I’m in favor of the Second Amendment, and I know we need reasonable gun safety laws in our country,” she added.

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, Harris’ main Republican opponent in the upcoming election, responded to the shooting with a message of condolence. Trump, who is widely recognized as a champion of gun rights by his party, expressed his sorrow over the incident. He took to social media to post, “Our hearts are with the victims,” and went on to describe the shooter as a “sick and deranged monster” responsible for taking the lives of “cherished children…far too soon.” Trump, however, stopped short of endorsing any new gun control measures, reflecting his strong alignment with Republican opposition to such regulations.

Gun control has long been a divisive issue in American politics, with advocates for stricter laws arguing that they are necessary to reduce the frequency of mass shootings and gun-related deaths, while opponents, particularly within the Republican Party, argue that such laws infringe on constitutional rights and fail to address the root causes of violence. This ideological clash has contributed to the political deadlock that has stymied legislative efforts to pass comprehensive gun reform at the federal level.

Harris, a former prosecutor and California Attorney General, has positioned herself as a vocal advocate for gun safety laws throughout her career. She has often pointed to her experience in law enforcement as evidence of her understanding of the complexities of the issue. Her support for gun control has been consistent, even as the debate over gun rights continues to polarize American voters. Harris’ background in law enforcement also lends credibility to her arguments for reasonable restrictions on firearms without compromising the constitutional rights of responsible gun owners.

As the presidential race heats up, gun violence is emerging as a key issue on the campaign trail. With hundreds of mass shootings taking place in the U.S. each year, the debate over how to address gun violence has gained renewed urgency. For Harris, this issue is a central part of her campaign platform, and she has promised to make gun safety reforms a priority if she is elected president.

Despite the broad public support for some gun control measures, such as background checks, the political landscape remains challenging for those advocating for stricter laws. The powerful gun rights lobby, particularly the National Rifle Association (NRA), continues to wield significant influence over Republican lawmakers, making it difficult for Democrats like Harris to advance their proposals.

Harris’ campaign message is clear: gun violence in America has reached an unacceptable level, and immediate action is necessary to prevent further tragedies. She believes that by implementing measures such as an assault weapons ban, universal background checks, and red flag laws, the country can significantly reduce the number of mass shootings and protect innocent lives.

In contrast, Trump and other Republican leaders argue that the focus should be on mental health and other factors contributing to violent behavior rather than restricting access to firearms. The division between these two perspectives is likely to remain a contentious point throughout the 2024 election cycle.

With the Georgia shooting fresh in the minds of many voters, Harris’ appeal for action on gun violence may resonate with those seeking solutions to an issue that has long plagued the nation. As the election draws closer, both candidates will likely continue to address the topic, albeit from very different viewpoints, making gun control a central issue in the race for the White House.

Former President Donald Trump is adjusting his campaign strategy, scaling back efforts in key states he had aggressively targeted just six weeks ago. This shift reflects how Vice President Kamala Harris’ rise in the polls has reshaped the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race.

Key Adjustments in Trump’s Strategy

The Trump campaign is pulling back from New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia. Instead, it is concentrating resources on Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, commonly referred to as the “Blue Wall” states. These states are critical for both Republicans and Democrats in securing the White House.

Additionally, Trump is refocusing on North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. These states were initially considered strongholds for Trump before Harris entered the race, making them much more competitive.

This stands in stark contrast to late July when Trump, fresh off the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, appeared to have a smooth path toward a potential victory. At that time, the Trump campaign was optimistic about its chances in Minnesota and Virginia, even claiming that both states were “prime opportunities to flip.”

However, the political landscape changed significantly when President Joe Biden exited the race, and Kamala Harris emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee, putting Trump on the defensive.

New Hampshire: A Shift in Focus

In New Hampshire, the Trump campaign is notably drawing down its operations. A volunteer within the campaign shared in an email that the state was no longer viewed as a battleground and urged staff to shift their focus to Pennsylvania.

The campaign has denied this claim, maintaining that their Manchester, New Hampshire office remains fully operational. However, this volunteer’s statement highlights the changes in the campaign’s strategic approach.

Minnesota: Mixed Signals

In Minnesota, the situation is more complex. Trump’s campaign initially saw the state as a prime battleground and planned an extensive ground game. Following the Republican convention, Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, held a rally in St. Cloud, Minnesota. At that time, the campaign was confident, announcing plans to open eight campaign offices and expand staff in the state.

Despite these bold claims, most of the roughly dozen campaign offices were established before Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, her running mate, joined the Democratic ticket. Since then, the campaign has hired only two full-time staff members—a state director and a senior advisor. However, a spokesperson for the Minnesota Republican Party confirmed that at least 14 full-time staffers are currently dedicated to Trump’s reelection efforts.

Minnesota Republican Party chair David Hann admitted that “the [state] party and Trump campaign have been working jointly with our local organizations to get those [offices] staffed up.” He emphasized that the campaign remains invested in the state and cited strong voter outreach efforts and volunteer engagement.

Virginia: Early Momentum Fades

In Virginia, Trump and Vance both held rallies earlier in the summer before Harris entered the race. Trump appeared in Chesapeake on June 28, just one day after his debate with Biden. Vance made his first solo appearance as the vice-presidential nominee in Radford, Virginia, on July 22, shortly after the GOP convention.

Although Trump’s campaign has continued to express optimism about winning Virginia, polls now show that Harris has overtaken Trump’s lead, securing a small but significant advantage in the state. “I truly believe we’re going to win the state,” Eric Trump said recently.

However, in the last six weeks, Trump has not held a rally in Virginia, and the campaign has seemingly ceased issuing memos touting internal polling data that once suggested the state was flippable. This quiet retreat from the state suggests that the campaign may be rethinking its earlier confidence.

Renewed Focus on the Blue Wall States

Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign has dramatically increased its spending on advertising in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, indicating the importance of these Blue Wall states to his strategy. The campaign has also ramped up spending in states that were once considered safe for Trump but are now becoming more competitive due to Harris’ growing momentum.

In North Carolina, for instance, both Trump’s campaign and MAGA Inc., a super PAC supporting him, have collectively spent over $16 million on ads, a sign of how seriously they are taking Harris’ growing appeal in the state.

What Trump’s Campaign is Saying

Trump’s campaign remains publicly optimistic despite these changes in focus. Rachel Reisner, Trump’s battleground states director, emphasized that the campaign continues to build a powerful ground operation. “Team Trump continues to build out the most robust and modern ground game ever,” Reisner told Axios.

Reisner also highlighted the campaign’s steady growth, stating, “Our team is only expanding—we have new staff, offices, and volunteers weekly—with more enthusiasm, energy, and support from people and states Democrats take for granted.”

While the campaign insists that it is continuing to expand its operations and volunteer base, the shift away from earlier targeted states such as New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia shows that the political landscape has changed. The rise of Kamala Harris as a competitive contender has forced Trump to refocus his efforts on crucial battleground states that will likely determine the outcome of the election.

Trump’s campaign strategy has undergone significant recalibration in response to Harris’ ascent in the polls. While the campaign was once confident in its chances of flipping traditionally Democratic states, the current focus is now on fortifying support in key battleground states where Harris’ competitiveness has shifted the dynamics. With both campaigns pouring resources into the Blue Wall and other critical states, the battle for the presidency is far from settled.

In a recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, Democrat Kamala Harris has taken a notable lead over Republican Donald Trump, showing a 48%-43% advantage. This represents an eight-point turnaround from late June, when Trump led President Joe Biden by nearly four points in the same survey.

The shift in the race is largely attributed to significant changes in key demographic groups that have traditionally been vital for Democrats. Harris’s lead has been notably influenced by shifts among Hispanic, Black, and young voters. For instance, among those with annual incomes under $20,000, Trump’s previous three-point lead over Biden has transformed into a 23-point lead for Harris over Trump as of August.

This development marks a significant achievement for Harris, who has managed to secure a lead over Trump, something Biden had struggled to accomplish this year. Despite the small margin, Harris’s advantage reflects a shift in momentum, particularly following the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which had a rallying effect on party supporters.

The poll, conducted among 1,000 likely voters via landline and cellphone from Sunday to Wednesday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The focus on likely voters, as opposed to registered voters in previous polls, marks a shift in the survey’s methodology as the election approaches.

The detailed results, without rounding, show Harris with an edge closer to four points rather than five, at 47.6%-43.3%.

The success of Harris’s campaign strategies, particularly the targeted appeals made at the Democratic convention, is evident. David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, noted, “With the ‘Brat Summer’ of Kamala Harris emojis winding down, young people, persons of color, and low-income households have swung dramatically toward the vice president. These same demographics were emphasized and woven together by numerous speakers at the convention.”

Significant changes since June include:

– Voters aged 18 to 34 have shifted from supporting Trump by 11 points to supporting Harris by 13 points, now favoring her 49%-36%.

– Hispanic voters, a group that the Republican campaign has been actively trying to engage, have shifted from supporting Trump by two points to supporting Harris by 16 points, with a current split of 53%-37%.

– Black voters, who have traditionally been a strong Democratic base, have moved from supporting Biden by 47 points to supporting Harris by 64 points, now showing 76%-12% in her favor.

– Harris has gained support among lower-income voters, who now back her 58%-35%. She has emphasized her commitment to an “opportunity economy” that focuses on affordable housing and addressing food price gouging, although she has not yet provided detailed policy plans.

The election dynamic has evolved as Harris stands as the first woman of color and the first person of South Asian descent nominated for president by a major party. At 59, she is considerably younger than Trump, who is 78, and Biden, who is 81.

Amy Hendrix, a 46-year-old independent voter from Fort Worth, Texas, expressed her enthusiasm, saying, “I think people are cautiously optimistic that they’re going to have a lot better chance with Harris than they would have had with Biden going head-to-head with Trump. I’m very excited to vote for a woman, and that’s just the truth.”

However, not all reactions have been positive. Jason Streem, a 46-year-old dentist from the Cleveland suburbs who supports Trump, criticized the manner in which Harris became the nominee. He remarked, “She was never part of the running process. She never received the primary votes.” He described the nomination process as “the most undemocratic way of picking a nominee.”

The rapid shift in the Democratic nomination occurred after Biden’s decision to step back from his reelection bid just over a month ago, influenced by party leaders and donors concerned about his chances of winning. This unexpected move paved the way for Harris’s swift nomination.

In the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll, Biden’s support this year never exceeded 37.5%, and he trailed Trump by as little as half a percentage point in the spring, to nearly four points after the Biden-Trump debate in early summer.

This poll is the first since independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew from the race and endorsed Trump. Current independent candidate Cornel West stands at 2%, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver each hold 1%. When asked about their second choice among third-party supporters, 32% preferred Harris, 24% chose West, and 15% opted for Trump.

A recent poll released on Tuesday reveals that more Americans believe Vice President Kamala Harris has a better chance of winning the White House in November compared to former President Donald Trump. According to the Yahoo News/YouGov survey, 39 percent of respondents think Harris “has the best chance of winning” the election, which is now only 69 days away. In contrast, 36 percent believe Trump has the better chance of securing victory in the upcoming fall election.

Harris’s elevation to the top of the Democratic presidential ticket came after President Joe Biden stepped aside and endorsed her last month. This shift has generated significant enthusiasm and energy within the Democratic Party, largely due to Harris’s perceived stronger likelihood of winning this year’s election compared to Biden.

However, the survey also revealed that 25 percent of participants are uncertain about whether Harris or Trump will win the presidency in the forthcoming election.

When asked about the qualifications of the party nominees for serving in the Oval Office, 50 percent of respondents indicated they believe Harris is fit for the role. In comparison, 47 percent expressed the same view about Trump. The poll also showed that 37 percent believe Harris is not fit for the presidency, while 47 percent hold the same opinion about Trump. Additionally, 22 percent of respondents were unsure about Harris’s fitness for office, whereas 8 percent were unsure about Trump’s suitability.

In an average of national polls conducted by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, Harris holds a 4-point lead over Trump, with the vice president receiving 49.5 percent support. The upcoming election is expected to be competitive as Trump and Harris are scheduled to face off in a debate hosted by ABC News in a few weeks. Although Trump has recently raised concerns about his participation in the debate, he stated on Tuesday that he had “reached an agreement” with what is presumed to be Harris’s campaign.

The Yahoo News/YouGov poll was carried out from August 22 to August 26, involving 1,788 participants, and has a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.

Vice President Kamala Harris expressed deep emotion after seeing a photo of her young grandniece, in pigtails, watching her speak at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last week. Although Harris hasn’t made it a focus, she stated her intention to run for president to represent “all Americans,” the image symbolized the potential historic nature of her candidacy. “It’s very humbling. Very humbling in many ways,” she said in an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash.

During this interview, the first she gave alongside her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Walz also mentioned his son Gus’s emotional reaction to his convention speech. “Our politics can be better. It can be different. We can show some of these things, and we can have families involved in this,” Walz said. He added, “I hope people felt that out there, and I hope that they hugged their kids a little tighter because you never know. Life can be kind of hard.”

Harris discussed how her positions on several issues, including fracking and border security, have evolved since her initial presidential run in 2019. She also offered a glimpse into how she plans to explain these changes to voters during her debate with former President Donald Trump and as the campaign continues. “My values have not changed,” she emphasized.

She also aimed to frame the 2024 race as an opportunity for the American people to choose “a new way forward,” moving beyond a political era dominated by Trump. Harris’ campaign has been described as one of optimism, contrasting with the former president’s darker rhetoric that often portrays political opponents, the media, and others as adversaries. Harris and Trump are both preparing for their first debate on September 10, to be aired on ABC.

Clarifying Position on Fracking

In 2019, Harris, as a presidential candidate, opposed fracking, a stance that could have negatively affected her in Pennsylvania, where fracking is a significant employer. Now, she says she supports it. “As vice president, I did not ban fracking. As president, I will not ban fracking,” Harris stated. Fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, is a method of extracting natural gas from shale rock. While progressives have opposed fracking due to environmental concerns, the Inflation Reduction Act, a $750 billion bill focused on health care, taxes, and climate change, has led to both an expansion of fracking and growth in clean energy efforts in the U.S. Harris clarified that she had already revised her stance on fracking by 2020, stating during the vice-presidential debate that Biden “will not end fracking.”

“I have not changed that position, nor will I going forward,” she reiterated. Harris pointed to the Biden administration’s actions to foster growth in clean energy, saying, “What I have seen is that we can grow and we can increase a thriving clean energy economy without banning fracking.”

Consideration of a Republican in the Cabinet

When asked if she would appoint a Republican to her Cabinet, Harris responded, “Yes, I would.” However, she did not provide specific names or potential roles. “No one in particular,” she noted. “We have 68 days to go in this election, so I’m not putting the cart before the horse. But I would.” Harris has emphasized the importance of diverse opinions in decision-making processes. “I have spent my career inviting diversity of opinion,” she explained, suggesting it could benefit the American public to have a Republican in her Cabinet.

Ignoring Trump’s Identity Politics

Harris mostly avoided addressing Donald Trump’s remarks about her racial and gender identity. Trump recently questioned her racial identity at a conference, insinuating that she had previously identified as South Asian but “happened to turn Black” for political reasons. Harris dismissed this, calling it part of Trump’s “same old tired playbook.” When pressed for further comment, she simply said, “Next question, please,” indicating her campaign’s strategy to avoid engaging with such attacks.

A Pivotal Phone Call

On the morning of July 21, Vice President Harris was at home making breakfast for visiting relatives and doing a puzzle with her nieces when she received a phone call from President Joe Biden. “It was Joe Biden, and he told me what he had decided to do,” Harris said. The call signaled Biden’s decision to end his re-election bid and endorse Harris to lead the Democratic ticket. Harris was initially more concerned about the impact on Biden, who had faced calls for resignation following a challenging debate performance. “I asked him, ‘Are you sure?’ and he said ‘Yes,’” Harris recalled.

Harris praised Biden’s presidency as “transformative” and described his decision to withdraw as reflective of his character, depicting him as “quite selfless and puts the American people first.” She also defended the administration’s achievements, including investments in infrastructure and efforts to reduce drug costs and strengthen international alliances. “I am so proud to have served as Vice President to Joe Biden,” she added.

Border Security and Criticism of Trump

Harris responded to Trump’s critiques of the Biden administration’s border policies by attributing much of the blame to Trump. She highlighted his opposition to a bipartisan border security bill that would have added 1,500 agents to the border. “He told his folks in Congress, don’t put it forward. He killed the bill — a border security bill,” she said. Harris vowed that if elected president, she would ensure such a bill reached her desk and would sign it. She also clarified her stance against decriminalizing illegal border crossings, a reversal from her 2019 position, stating, “We have laws that have to be followed and enforced that deal with people who cross our border illegally, and there should be consequences.”

Walz Reflects on Past Mistakes

Governor Walz also addressed his past misstatements, including a 2018 video where he inaccurately referenced carrying “weapons of war” during his military service, despite never being in a combat zone. He admitted to misspeaking, adding, “My wife, the English teacher, told me my grammar’s not always correct.” He also corrected a claim about using in vitro fertilization, clarifying it was another form of fertility treatment. “I certainly own my mistakes when I make them,” he stated.

Walz emphasized his commitment to civility, contrasting his approach with that of his Republican opponent, Ohio Senator JD Vance, who had made inflammatory comments about Harris. Walz stated he would not insult Republicans, highlighting the contrasting tones of their campaigns as they prepare for their October 1 debate hosted by CBS.

Looking Beyond the Trump Era

Harris acknowledged questions about why her proposed policies haven’t been implemented during her time as vice president, explaining that she was “talking about an era that started about a decade ago,” referring to Trump’s emergence in politics. She argued that leadership should be about uplifting people, not “who you beat down.” Harris concluded, “That’s what’s at stake, as much as any other detail that we could discuss, in this election.”

At the Democratic National Convention this week, party members confidently predicted that Kamala Harris would emerge victorious against Donald Trump. They hailed her as a historic leader, a beacon of hope, and referred to her as “the president of joy.” Amid this overwhelming optimism, however, former First Lady Michelle Obama issued a sobering caution: “No matter how good we feel tonight or tomorrow or the next day, this is going to be an uphill battle.” Her warning was soon overshadowed by the excitement of the 17,000 attendees at the convention in Chicago, but it underscored a pressing reality for Harris: the real challenge is only beginning.

More than a month after President Joe Biden endorsed her, Harris has yet to present detailed plans on how she would tackle the nation’s most significant issues, such as immigration, crime, and climate change. She has not yet sat down for a comprehensive media interview to address tough questions about her past policy shifts, leadership style, and the scrutiny surrounding her race and gender as a historic candidate. As John Anzalone, a pollster for the last three Democratic presidential nominees, pointed out, “We can’t put our heads in the sand. She’s a Black woman. The bar is going to be higher for everything. And guess what? That means, even mistakes. Mistakes are going to be magnified.”

Harris’ supporters acknowledge that she remains largely undefined to many voters, having spent much of the past four years in Biden’s shadow. This relative anonymity presents both opportunities and risks. David Axelrod, a former chief strategist for President Barack Obama, noted, “The bad thing about vice presidents is that nobody knows who you are. The good thing about vice presidents is nobody knows who you are.”

With just over two weeks to prepare for her only scheduled presidential debate against Trump on September 10, which could significantly influence the race’s trajectory, Harris’ team feels no urgency to release a comprehensive policy platform or engage in media interviews that might disrupt the positive momentum her campaign has generated. So far, her advisers have positioned her policy agenda as an extension of Biden’s first-term accomplishments, especially in economic matters, though some specifics may differ.

For instance, Harris has abandoned her opposition to fracking and her previous support for Medicare for All, key positions in her 2019 presidential run. Her aides argue that while her values remain consistent, she has adopted more centrist policies out of practicality. “She’s going to work to support and lead pragmatic common sense policies that are going to directly relate to improving the lives of Americans,” said Brian Nelson, a senior campaign policy adviser.

Meanwhile, Harris’ allies anticipate that Trump will eventually settle on an effective line of attack against her. In recent days, he has employed a broad-based strategy, targeting her racial identity, demeanor, record as vice president, and perceived liberalism. “He’ll figure out how to get a message and land a political punch,” said Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. “What you’ve seen with her is an ability to absorb the criticism and just keep going. And that is a really, really important political trait.”

However, some acknowledge that as Election Day approaches, the scrutiny on Harris will intensify. Sarah Longwell, a leader of Republican Voters Against Trump, commented, “People ask this question: Will people vote for a Black woman? And I actually think that’s always the wrong question. I think the question is, Will they vote for Kamala Harris, with her particular set of both skills and baggage? The biggest problem for Kamala Harris is that people view her as too progressive, and that’s going to hurt her with these swing voters.”

Polls indicate that public perception of Harris has shifted since Biden withdrew and she became the presumptive nominee. In a June AP-NORC poll, only 39% of Americans viewed her favorably, with 12% unsure. By August, those figures had improved to 48% favorable, with only 6% expressing uncertainty. Additionally, 27% of respondents reported a “very” favorable opinion, up from 14% in June. This rapid change suggests that public opinion could shift again as voters learn more about Harris.

This shift also suggests that Harris’ current surge might be less about her candidacy and more about Democrats’ relief over Biden stepping aside. Before he withdrew, nearly two-thirds of Democrats expressed opposition to another Biden run, with about half stating they would be dissatisfied if he were the nominee. Quentin Wathum-Ocama, president of Young Democrats of America, expressed mixed feelings of relief and excitement over Harris. “Do people know her? People are aware of her,” he said. “I can be excited, but I still want more.”

However, he may have to wait, as Harris has yet to release comprehensive policy details. Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, noted that past Democratic efforts to provide detailed policy plans did not resonate with voters. “We used to do 10-point plans; they weren’t even satisfied with five-point plans,” Weingarten said. “I think that that’s not where Americans are.”

So far, Harris has provided a glimpse of her policy intentions. She has proposed federal limits on price increases for food producers and grocers, pledged to make permanent a $3,600 per child tax credit for eligible families, and introduced a new $6,000 tax credit for families with newborns. Additionally, she plans to build three million new housing units over four years and expand down payment assistance for renters. She also wants to accelerate a Biden initiative to allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices, aiming to reduce costs by 40% to 80% by 2026.

Trump’s campaign has focused on the lack of specifics in Harris’ platform and her avoidance of media interviews. At a recent rally in Asheboro, North Carolina, Jerry Zimmerman, a Trump supporter, acknowledged the challenge of defeating Harris, saying, “If they can prove that everything went fair, I’ll be cool with it. I think a lot of people will be cool with the outcome.”

With the election timeline compressed, both candidates have little time to pivot dramatically. Early voting in key states like Pennsylvania begins on September 16, with more states following shortly after. Both campaigns have already committed substantial resources to television ads, with Democrats planning to spend over $270 million compared to the Republicans’ $120 million.

Michelle Obama warned that mistakes are inevitable and urged Democrats to stay focused on defeating Trump. “The minute something goes wrong, the minute a lie takes hold, folks, we cannot start wringing our hands,” she said. “We cannot get a Goldilocks complex about whether everything is just right. And we cannot indulge our anxieties about whether this country will elect someone like Kamala, instead of doing everything we can to get someone like Kamala elected.”

Democrats are placing their bets on the belief that American voters are eager to move beyond the divisive era shaped by former President Donald Trump. At the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago, the party showcased a strategy centered on “joy,” with Vice President Kamala Harris being positioned as the candidate to lead the nation into a more hopeful future.

Former President Bill Clinton emphasized this theme by declaring that Harris brings “sheer joy” to the 2024 presidential race. Meanwhile, Oprah Winfrey encouraged the nation to “choose joy.” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg further contrasted Trump’s “darkness” with the more uplifting political approach offered by Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, stating, “it just feels better to be part of.”

This messaging shift highlights how quickly the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race have changed since President Joe Biden exited the race last month. While Biden’s campaign was heavily focused on the dangers Trump posed to democracy, Harris has taken those concerns and wrapped them in a more forward-looking narrative centered on themes of freedom and joy. The convention was designed to reflect this new tone, complete with a party-like atmosphere.

The evening’s entertainment featured performances by John Legend, drummer Sheila E., and Stevie Wonder, who delivered a rousing rendition of “Higher Ground.” The celebratory mood extended to the appearance of alumni from Mankato West High School’s football team, which had previously won a state championship under Walz’s guidance as an assistant coach. They appeared on stage in their old jerseys as a pep band played the school’s fight song. “Thank you for bringing the joy to this fight,” Walz told the audience.

Six Key Moments from the DNC’s Third Night

1. Tim Walz, the ‘Happy Warrior,’ Makes His Case

Governor Tim Walz, relatively new to the national stage, used his moment to introduce himself as more than just a politician. Before becoming Harris’s running mate, Walz had never delivered a speech to a national audience, let alone used a teleprompter. Yet, instead of leaning on his political credentials as a two-term governor and former congressman, he presented himself as a high school teacher, football coach, hunter, and neighbor.

Walz used his speech to argue that Democrats are the true champions of freedom. “In Minnesota, we respect our neighbors and the choices they make. Even if we wouldn’t make the same choices ourselves, we’ve got a golden rule: Mind your own damn business,” Walz said. He linked this philosophy to Harris’s policy positions on health care, abortion rights, and homeownership, speaking in tones reminiscent of the late Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone.

“When we Democrats talk about freedom, we mean the freedom to make a better life for yourself and the people you love,” he said. “Freedom to make your own health care decisions. And yeah, your kids’ freedom to go to school without worrying about being shot dead in the hall.”

The governor’s heartfelt address also touched on personal struggles, particularly the fertility challenges he and his wife, Gwen, faced. He emotionally addressed his family, saying, “Hope, Gus, and Gwen, you are my entire world, and I love you.” His son Gus stood up with tears in his eyes, applauding his father.

Walz concluded his speech with a call to action, urging Democrats to give their all in the remaining 76 days of the campaign, saying, “We’re gonna leave it on the field.” He exited the stage to Neil Young’s “Rockin’ in the Free World,” a song that Harris’s campaign received special permission to use, marking a sharp contrast to Young’s previous legal battle to prevent Trump from using it.

2. Oprah Winfrey Ties Harris to a Legacy of Progress

Oprah Winfrey took the stage to draw a historical connection between Harris and previous generations of African American trailblazers, portraying the vice president as representing “the best of America.” Winfrey recounted the story of Tessie Prevost, who passed away last month, and three other Black girls who, at the age of six, bravely began desegregating New Orleans elementary schools in 1960.

Winfrey noted that the “New Orleans Four” paved the way for Harris, who nine years later became part of the second class to integrate public schools in Berkeley, California. Now, Winfrey declared, Harris is on the cusp of making history.

“Soon and very soon, we’re going to be teaching our daughters and sons about how this child of an Indian mother and a Jamaican father, two idealistic and energetic immigrants… grew up to become the 47th president of the United States,” Winfrey said, to a roaring crowd chanting “U-S-A.” She also addressed Ohio Senator JD Vance’s derogatory remarks about childless women, making a powerful statement about the shared humanity of all Americans.

3. Bill Clinton’s Stark Choice: ‘For the People’ or ‘Me, Myself, and I’

Former President Bill Clinton framed the election as a choice between Harris, who is “for the people,” and Trump, who he described as being solely about “me, myself, and I.” Clinton, whose influence within the party has diminished over the years, still holds a unique appeal to White working-class voters, making his appearances at conventions particularly noteworthy.

Clinton discussed Harris’s policies on housing, health care, and job growth, while also painting Trump as a self-centered figure. He quipped, “So the next time you hear him, don’t count the lies. Count the I’s.” This line drew attention to Trump’s focus on his grievances, vendettas, and conspiracy theories.

4. A Generational Shift in the Democratic Party

The convention in Chicago also symbolized a generational shift within the Democratic Party. While the primary goal was to build momentum for Harris, the event also highlighted the passing of the torch from seasoned figures like Biden, Clinton, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to newer leaders.

Bill Clinton, aware of his own mortality, reminded the crowd of his long history with the Democratic National Convention and urged voters to support Harris, saying, “If you vote for this team… you’ll be proud of it for the rest of your life. Your children will be proud of it. Your grandchildren will be proud of it.”

5. The Struggles of Hostage Families

In a poignant moment, Rachel Goldberg-Polin, mother of a hostage taken by Hamas, expressed the agony that she and her husband, Jon Polin, have endured. She thanked the Biden-Harris administration for their support, while also acknowledging the suffering on all sides of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

6. Defending Democracy: Trump Betrayed Us

Even as Harris reframed the Democratic message, the convention retained a strong focus on defending democracy. Aquilino Gonell, a former U.S. Capitol Police sergeant, accused Trump of betraying the officers who defended the Capitol on January 6, 2021. His emotional testimony was a reminder of the stakes in the upcoming election, underscoring the enduring relevance of the fight to preserve democratic values.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 election campaign has garnered significant financial support, amassing an unprecedented $500 million since she officially became the Democratic presidential candidate, according to sources familiar with the matter. This substantial fundraising achievement reflects the strong enthusiasm among donors as the November 5 election approaches.

Four individuals closely involved with the fundraising efforts disclosed to Reuters that Harris’s campaign had successfully accumulated this considerable sum in the four weeks following her entry into the race on July 21. The rapid inflow of campaign funds highlights the critical role that financial resources play in modern elections, particularly in financing advertising and voter mobilization initiatives aimed at swaying undecided voters.

Harris’s decision to enter the presidential race came after President Joe Biden stepped down from the top of the Democratic ticket, a move that reignited a wave of funding that had largely dried up following Biden’s challenging debate performance against Republican contender Donald Trump. In the initial week of her campaign, Harris raised an impressive $200 million, quickly securing the support needed to become the party’s nominee.

In total, Harris’s team raised $310 million in July alone, bringing the combined fundraising total for her and Biden, before he exited the race, to over $1 billion. This rapid accumulation of funds marks the quickest achievement of such a significant fundraising milestone in U.S. political history, according to the Harris campaign.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump’s campaign reported raising $138.7 million in July, with cash reserves amounting to $327 million. Trump’s campaign had previously outpaced Biden’s in fundraising during the second quarter of the year.

Despite the competition, enthusiasm for Harris has remained strong. Her campaign reported having $377 million in cash on hand as of July, with the momentum continuing into August. This ongoing support is evident not only from large donors but also from small-dollar contributors, as thousands of people have been attending her rallies in key swing states across the nation.

To put this fundraising success in perspective, Biden’s campaign committee raised a total of $1.04 billion during the 2020 election cycle, a figure that swelled to $1.62 billion when combined with contributions from outside groups, as reported by OpenSecrets, a watchdog organization that tracks money in politics.

At the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Harris expressed her appreciation for Biden’s leadership, while the president himself took the opportunity to highlight his record and urge voters to support Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, in the upcoming election.

Former President Barack Obama, a significant figure in Democratic fundraising, also played a role in bolstering Harris’s campaign. Obama delivered a speech at the convention on August 20, while Harris continued her efforts to energize voters in nearby Wisconsin. Obama has already participated in two major fundraisers with Biden and has offered his assistance to Harris in organizing additional fundraising events.

Throughout her campaign, Harris has consistently referred to herself as the underdog in the race against Trump, a tactic intended to prevent complacency among her supporters and maintain a high level of engagement from both her voter base and her donors.

With less than three months remaining until Election Day, Harris’s fundraising prowess and strong donor enthusiasm place her campaign in a formidable position as she continues to rally support across the country in her bid to become the next President of the United States.

The Democratic National Convention on Tuesday night was dominated by the Obamas, highlighting an extraordinary reality: the party’s two most compelling orators are married to each other. The only debate among Democrats seemed to be which of the two delivered the more impactful speech.

Former President Barack Obama aimed to elevate the conversation, drawing on former President Lincoln’s call for Americans to summon the “better angels” of their nature, hoping for a future where the nation could transcend its current turmoil. Meanwhile, former First Lady Michelle Obama delivered a more impassioned and confrontational address, directing several pointed critiques at former President Trump, albeit without frequently mentioning his name. She urged Democrats to take decisive action to prevent his reelection.

The Obamas overshadowed other speakers, including second gentleman Douglas Emhoff, who didn’t attempt to compete. Here are the five major takeaways from the evening:

Barack Obama Calls for Unity Amid Division

Twenty years ago, at the Democratic National Convention in Boston, a state senator gained national attention with a speech arguing that the differences between “blue” and “red” America were overstated, particularly by those who benefit from such division. That state senator was Barack Obama, who would be elected to the U.S. Senate later that year and to the White House—becoming the nation’s first Black president—just four years later.

On Tuesday night, Obama’s address echoed similar themes but was tempered by experience, marked by more battles, and acutely aware of the deepening divisions in the country. “We live in a time of such confusion and rancor,” Obama said, “with a culture that puts a premium on things that don’t last—money, fame, status, likes.” However, he maintained that “away from all the noise, the ties that bind us together” still endure.

Obama’s political message was that Democrats must articulate their belief in those ties to win in November. He also emphasized the importance of freedom, aligning with Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign theme. Obama defined freedom broadly, including same-sex marriage, religious freedom, and environmental rights. He also criticized Trump, mocking his “weird obsession with crowd size” and his “whining about his problems.”

Obama praised President Joe Biden as a leader who “defended democracy at a time of great danger.” Ultimately, the speech was a display of the soaring rhetoric that propelled Obama to the presidency, still thrilling his party as much as it ever did.

Michelle Obama’s Fiery Address

Michelle Obama’s speech was even more impassioned than her husband’s, targeting Trump repeatedly while refraining from naming him until later in her address. She criticized the advantages of the wealthy and privileged, making it clear that Trump was her target. “Most of us will never be afforded the grace of failing forward,” she stated, adding that not everyone has “an escalator waiting to take us to the top”—a clear reference to Trump’s famous descent down the escalator in Trump Tower in 2015 to announce his first presidential run.

The crowd at the United Center in Chicago, Michelle Obama’s hometown, erupted with applause at her pointed reference to “the affirmative action of generational wealth.” This was a jab at both Trump’s background as the son of a wealthy developer and Republican criticisms of programs designed to support marginalized communities, especially Black communities.

Obama drew parallels between herself and Harris, portraying them as two women of color from modest backgrounds who had to fight for their achievements, which in turn gave them a greater capacity for empathy. “Kamala knows, like we do, that regardless of where you come from, what you look like, who you love, how you worship, or what’s in your bank account, we all deserve the opportunity to build a decent life. All of our contributions deserve to be accepted and valued,” she said.

She also cautioned Democrats to prepare for the kind of attacks on Harris that she and her husband had previously faced. At the same time, Obama warned that the stakes in the election were too high for voters to approach it with a “Goldilocks complex about whether everything is just right.”

Harris as the People’s Champion, Trump as Self-Serving

The overarching theme of the convention was clear: Harris is a champion of the middle class, while Trump is only interested in serving himself. The convention’s purpose was not just to energize the base but also to craft a compelling campaign message. Democrats aimed to portray Harris as a forward-thinking leader dedicated to the middle class, in contrast to Trump’s self-serving nature.

Republicans, of course, reject this narrative, arguing that Democrats are too liberal for the average American. However, nearly every speech on Tuesday reinforced the central theme of Harris as a leader for the people.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) highlighted this when he spoke of working with Harris in the Senate, saying, “I saw a leader who was fearless, who stood up for middle-class families like the one she was raised in.” Whether the electorate will accept this portrayal remains to be seen, but Democrats are united in their message.

Emhoff’s Personal Touch

Second gentleman Douglas Emhoff, aware that he couldn’t match the grand rhetoric of the Obamas, opted for a more personal approach. He shared anecdotes about his early relationship with Harris, including leaving a “rambling” message on her voicemail. Emhoff’s self-deprecating humor was evident when he quipped that “my mother is the only person in the whole world who thinks Kamala is the lucky one for marrying me.”

Emhoff presented himself as an everyman, still connected to his high school friends and somewhat awed by his current position. While his speech may not have swayed many opinions, it effectively served its purpose.

Biden’s Quick Fade from the Spotlight

One of the most striking aspects of the second day of the convention was how rapidly President Biden seemed to recede from prominence. While Barack Obama praised Biden, Michelle Obama didn’t mention him at all. The party’s relief in rallying around Harris was palpable.

Biden had already left Chicago for California, a move that, while perhaps strategic, also highlighted his swift marginalization. The convention underscored the party’s shift of focus toward Harris, signaling a new chapter in Democratic leadership.

It was not the speech Joe Biden had envisioned for this year, especially under the current circumstances. However, given his experiences with tragedy and adversity, the president understands how swiftly fortunes can shift.

At the Democratic National Convention’s opening night in Chicago, Biden delivered a passionate defense of his presidency, revisiting many themes from his 2020 campaign and his more recent bid before his mid-July withdrawal following a poor debate performance.

“Like many of you, I gave my heart and soul to this nation,” Biden said towards the end of his nearly hour-long speech, which was met with enthusiastic shouts of “Thank you, Joe.”

Introduced by his daughter Ashley and his wife, Jill, Biden took the stage with visible emotion. Jill described witnessing Biden’s deep reflection as he decided to withdraw from the presidential race, and Biden dabbed at his eyes with a tissue, touched his heart, and straightened up at the lectern, smiling broadly as the crowd cheered.

His address reflected on his historical significance and also praised his vice president, whom he hopes will succeed him. “Selecting Kamala was the very first decision I made when I became our nominee and it’s the best decision I made my whole career,” Biden remarked. “She’s tough, she’s experienced, and she has enormous integrity.”

While Biden did not explicitly mention passing the torch to a new generation, the sentiment was evident. Following his remarks, Vice President Kamala Harris and her husband, Doug Emhoff, joined Biden and Jill on stage. Harris mouthed “I love you” to Biden after their embrace.

Although Biden’s focus was on Harris, acknowledging that her performance against Donald Trump in the upcoming election could shape how history and his party view him, earlier speakers paid tribute to the current president.

The evening began with a surprise appearance by Harris, who received a standing ovation as she took the stage. “Joe, thank you for your historic leadership and for your lifetime of service to our nation and for all you continue to do,” she said. “We are forever grateful to you.”

Delaware Senator Chris Coons, a close ally of Biden, also praised the president. “I’ve never known a more compassionate man than Joe Biden,” Coons said. “I’ve never known a man who has taken from his own loss and his own faith and delivered so much for the future of so many others.”

Hillary Clinton, who appeared earlier in the evening, lauded Biden for restoring “dignity, decency and competence” to the White House. She received a long ovation and highlighted that while she did not break the “highest, hardest glass ceiling” by becoming the first woman president, “on the other side of that glass ceiling is Kamala Harris taking the oath of office.”

The reception Biden received from the packed Democratic convention hall was vibrant. The Chicago Democrats had been jubilant all day, but the applause for Biden also seemed to acknowledge his reluctant decision to step aside, alongside honoring his lengthy political career that began in 1972 when he was first elected to Congress at 29.

Former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton are set to address the convention later this week. Unlike them, Biden will not have the opportunity to run for re-election. Instead, he used his speech to define and defend his legacy as a one-term president, a speech that may stand as his final address to a large American audience unless a significant national event occurs in the next five months.

At the speech’s conclusion, Biden quoted a line from the song “American Anthem.” “Let me know in my heart when my days are through, that America, America, I gave my best to you,” he said, eliciting another round of applause from the audience.

Eight years ago, Biden chose not to run for president in favor of Hillary Clinton, partly due to pressure from Obama. Four years ago, although he won the nomination, the Covid pandemic prevented him from enjoying the full Democratic convention experience with a celebratory balloon drop.

This convention marked one of Biden’s closest experiences to a traditional Democratic convention moment in the spotlight. After his speech, he departed for Air Force One and a flight to California for a holiday. His time in Chicago was brief, and despite his hopes from a few months prior, his remaining term as president will be limited to months rather than years.

With just three months remaining until the 2024 election, thousands of individuals have convened in Chicago for the Democratic National Convention (DNC). This event, rooted in tradition since the 1830s, marks a significant moment for the Democratic Party, as delegates gather to solidify their platform and energize their base.

The convention’s origins can be traced back to the 1830s when Democratic delegates supporting President Andrew Jackson assembled in Baltimore to nominate him for a second term. Over time, this gathering has evolved into a major event, filled with speeches, celebrity appearances, and political strategy.

This year’s convention, taking place at the United Center Arena in Chicago, began on Monday, August 19, and will continue through Thursday, August 22. While the event will uphold many longstanding traditions, it comes with some notable changes. The most significant is that the party has already officially nominated Vice-President Kamala Harris through a virtual roll call, following President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race.

As a result, the convention’s focus has shifted to speeches from key Democratic figures and the finalization of the party’s platform. The platform, which has already been drafted, addresses a wide array of issues, such as reducing inflation, combating climate change, and curbing gun violence. The draft also contrasts the Democratic Party’s positions with those outlined in Project 2025, a conservative blueprint developed by the Heritage Foundation for a potential second Trump administration. Although Trump has distanced himself from the project, several of his allies were involved in its creation.

Throughout the week, the convention will feature speeches from a range of prominent Democrats. On Tuesday, former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama are expected to deliver remarks. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, and Illinois Senator Tammy Duckworth are also slated to speak. Other notable speakers include Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, Mesa, Arizona Mayor John Giles, and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, the husband of Kamala Harris.

Wednesday’s lineup is expected to feature former President Bill Clinton and former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, among others. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Harris’s running mate, will deliver the prime-time speech on Wednesday night after his official nomination. However, the most significant moment of the convention will occur on Thursday when Vice-President Harris takes the stage to formally accept the presidential nomination and deliver her speech, which will be the culmination of the event. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will also make an appearance during the week.

Already, several notable figures have addressed the convention. President Joe Biden, who was the headline speaker on Monday, delivered an emotional speech defending his presidency. Introduced by his wife Jill and daughter Ashley, Biden stated, “America, I gave my best to you.” The same evening, 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton praised Biden and expressed hope that Kamala Harris could finally shatter the “highest, hardest glass ceiling” by becoming the first female president. Other speakers on Monday included progressive lawmaker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, individuals affected by abortion bans in Republican-led states, and representatives from the labor movement, including United Auto Workers head Shawn Fain.

The convention is expected to draw around 50,000 attendees, including thousands of delegates chosen by state Democratic parties and super delegates, who are significant elected officials and members of the Democratic Party. The media presence will also be substantial, with thousands of members of the press covering the event.

In addition to the political figures, the convention will feature appearances from various celebrities. In previous years, actors such as Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Eva Longoria, Elizabeth Banks, and America Ferrera have attended the DNC. This year, rumors have circulated about potential appearances by mega-stars Beyoncé and Taylor Swift, although neither has confirmed their attendance.

While the convention itself is a highly orchestrated event, it is not without controversy. Demonstrations have been organized outside the DNC venue, primarily opposing U.S. support for Israel’s war in Gaza. On Monday, thousands of protesters marched, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to U.S. support for Israel. Although the protest was mostly peaceful, several arrests were made when some demonstrators breached a security fence. The turnout was reportedly lower than expected, falling short of the 15,000 participants claimed by organizers.

During his speech on Monday, President Biden acknowledged the protesters, stating, “The activists have a point,” and added, “A lot of innocent people are being killed, on both sides.”

For those unable to attend the convention in person, there are multiple ways to follow the coverage. Members of the public can only attend by volunteering, but national media outlets are providing extensive coverage. The convention itself is offering live streams on social media platforms, ensuring that the public can stay informed. BBC News is among the media organizations providing in-depth coverage, with special reporting and analysis available on their website and app, as well as on their live-stream. The BBC News Channel is also airing special coverage each night from 20:00 ET (01:00 BST). Additionally, special episodes of The Global Story and Americast podcasts can be found on BBC Sounds and other podcast platforms.

As the 2024 election draws nearer, the Democratic National Convention serves as a critical moment for the party to rally its supporters and present a unified front. With speeches from key figures, the adoption of a comprehensive platform, and the nomination of Kamala Harris as the presidential candidate, the convention will set the stage for the final stretch of the campaign.

The 2024 electoral race has seen a significant shift since Vice President Kamala Harris took the helm of the Democratic ticket, altering the political map that once appeared to be a rematch between an unpopular, aging incumbent president and the former president, now a convicted felon, whom he defeated four years ago.

This latest analysis of the “Road to 270” electoral map shows several moves favoring Harris, indicating she has more pathways to securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency than President Joe Biden had when he led the Democratic Party. The current outlook resembles the situation in the final days of the 2020 campaign, focusing on seven battleground states and one congressional district in Nebraska. These areas are expected to receive the most attention and resources from both campaigns as they vie for the White House. In the month since Biden announced he would not run for re-election, these seven states have witnessed $240 million in advertising spending, split almost evenly between the two parties, according to AdImpact.

Previously, former President Donald Trump held a clear advantage in the race to 270 electoral votes. However, Harris’ entry into the race and her swift success in unifying the Democratic Party and regaining support from key groups, including voters of color, young voters, and women, has erased that advantage. Although the momentum has shifted in Harris’ favor, the race remains extremely close, with no clear frontrunner. Both Trump and Harris have multiple routes to achieving the necessary 270 electoral votes.

In this new analysis, four states have shifted from leaning Republican to being classified as toss-up battlegrounds: Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Together, these states account for 53 electoral votes, which were previously considered to lean toward Trump.

Trump now has 24 states and one congressional district in Maine either solidly in his favor or leaning in his direction, giving him a total of 219 electoral votes, 51 short of the 270 needed to win. Meanwhile, Harris has 19 states plus the District of Columbia either solidly in her favor or leaning her way, totaling 225 electoral votes, 45 votes shy of the required 270.

Currently, seven states and one Nebraska congressional district, amounting to 94 electoral votes, are classified as true toss-ups as the Democratic National Convention approaches and the summer draws to a close.

It is crucial to understand that this electoral outlook is a snapshot of the current state of the electoral college, not a prediction of the final outcome in November. The analysis is based on public and private polling, discussions with campaign advisers, political operatives from both parties, members of Congress, and professionals involved with outside groups active in the race.

As some Sun Belt states, such as Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, have become more competitive with Harris in the race, her most straightforward path to 270 electoral votes likely involves maintaining the “Blue Wall” states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—and retaining the Omaha-area congressional district in Nebraska in the Democratic column.

For Trump, the most direct route to 270 electoral votes would involve holding onto all the states he won in 2020 and flipping Georgia and Pennsylvania—two states he won in 2016—back to his column. Keeping North Carolina from slipping away is also critical for Trump, which may explain his recent focus on the state, including two visits in as many weeks and increased spending on television ads there.

The current electoral map breaks down as follows:

Solid Republican (188 Electoral Votes):Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3).

Leans Republican (31 Electoral Votes):Florida (30), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1).

Toss-ups (94 Electoral Votes):Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10).

Leans Democratic (50 Electoral Votes): Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (8), Virginia (13).

Solid Democratic (175 Electoral Votes):California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12).

Americans, regardless of their political beliefs, are united in acknowledging that rent costs are high and purchasing a home feels almost out of reach. The housing affordability crisis in the United States is rooted in fundamental economic principles of supply and demand. The housing market is suffering from a severe shortage of available homes, as many sellers are reluctant to put their properties on the market. This hesitancy is largely due to the fear that moving to a new home will result in higher mortgage payments, given the current historic mortgage rates. Meanwhile, demand for homes surged during the pandemic and has remained strong, despite rising prices and interest rates.

Although there are indications that the worst of the housing affordability crisis may have passed, the market remains constrained. This issue is so pressing that it has become a key topic for voters in the 2024 presidential election. On Friday, Vice President Kamala Harris introduced a comprehensive plan aimed at making housing more affordable. While some analysts welcomed certain aspects of her proposals, others expressed concern that some elements might exacerbate existing issues in the housing market.

Harris’ plan, which builds on previously announced proposals by President Joe Biden, includes several key initiatives:

– Up to $25,000 in down-payment assistance for first-time homebuyers.

– A $10,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers.

– Tax incentives for developers who build starter homes intended for first-time buyers.

– Expansion of tax incentives for the construction of affordable rental housing.

– The creation of a $40 billion innovation fund to encourage innovative housing construction methods.

– The repurposing of federal land for affordable housing projects.

– A ban on the use of algorithm-driven tools that landlords use to set rental prices.

– The removal of tax benefits for investors who purchase large numbers of single-family rental homes.

Several economists concurred that adding more homes to the market through these incentives would help alleviate the affordability issue by increasing inventory and potentially driving down prices. However, there was skepticism about the effectiveness of capping rent.

Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist at RSM US, commented on the plan, saying, “What I’ve seen is three parts substance and one part symbolism.” He praised the focus on increasing housing supply through financial channels, describing it as a solid and forward-thinking proposal. However, he viewed the rent caps as more symbolic than practical.

President Biden’s July proposal to limit rent increases to 5% is likely to resonate with the public, according to Brusuelas. However, he noted that the current economic conditions are already easing rent pressures, making such caps potentially redundant. The Consumer Price Index data for July, released on Wednesday, showed that the “rent of shelter” index had risen by 5.1% annually, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Despite this, recent trends indicate that rents are decreasing, with landlords offering incentives like free parking and rent-free months to attract tenants. Brusuelas believes that this makes the proposed price caps ineffective.

Lanhee Chen, director of domestic policy studies at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University and a former campaign adviser for Republicans like Senator Mitt Romney, criticized the rent control measures in Harris’ plan. “What is effectively a federal rent-control measure… was a bad idea when President Biden proposed it a few weeks ago,” Chen said. He also expressed concerns about the $40 billion innovation fund, suggesting that it might be another financial giveaway to local governments without clear accountability for results.

Chen also voiced apprehension about the down-payment assistance initiative. While it may seem appealing to potential homebuyers, it could inadvertently increase demand and drive up housing costs even further. Brusuelas shared a similar viewpoint, noting that while the down-payment assistance might appeal to Gen Z voters, its overall impact on the market is uncertain.

Despite these concerns, Brusuelas emphasized that the most substantial part of Harris’ plan is the proposal to add 3 million housing units to the market. Long before the pandemic and the subsequent supply chain disruptions and rise in remote work, the U.S. housing market was already struggling with chronically low inventory levels. This scarcity of homes has been a significant factor in driving up prices and worsening the affordability crisis.

“The proposal released Thursday from the Harris campaign is the only one I’ve seen that directly addresses the concerns around the supply of housing,” Brusuelas said. He highlighted the need for a coordinated effort by federal, state, and local governments to increase housing supply, as the nation currently faces a shortage of approximately 3 million homes.

Chen agreed that increasing housing supply is the most commendable aspect of Harris’ plan. “There’s bipartisan support for repurposing federal lands for the construction of affordable housing, and the concept of creating the right tax and economic incentives for builders to construct more new housing,” he said. However, Chen expressed some concerns about the targeting of these incentives but acknowledged that these “supply-side” reforms are long overdue.

Former President Donald Trump has also proposed using federal land to address the housing shortage. During a news conference on Thursday, Trump stated, “We’re going to open up tracts of federal land for housing construction. We desperately need housing for people who can’t afford what’s going on now.”

The Republican National Committee’s platform also emphasizes the importance of promoting homeownership through tax incentives and support for first-time buyers. The platform includes a commitment to reducing unnecessary regulations that increase housing costs and lowering mortgage rates by curbing inflation.

Jeffrey Zabel, an economics professor at Tufts University, expressed cautious optimism about Harris’ plan. However, he noted that turning these promises into reality will be challenging. “While this is a step in the right direction, let’s wait and see what they can actually implement,” Zabel said. He emphasized that proposing such measures is one thing, but successfully implementing them is another. Even if these proposals are enacted, Zabel believes that much more needs to be done to restore balance to the housing supply.

While Vice President Kamala Harris’ housing plan has sparked debate, it addresses the critical issue of increasing housing supply, which many experts agree is essential to solving the housing affordability crisis. The effectiveness of rent caps and down-payment assistance remains uncertain, but the proposal to build 3 million new homes may be the key to alleviating the strain on the housing market.

The nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate has introduced a significant shift in the race, with implications that are still unfolding. Her potential to become the first female U.S. president brings the role of the women’s vote into sharp focus for the upcoming November election.

Looking back at the 2022 midterm elections, the women’s vote played a crucial role in countering the expected “red wave,” leading Democrats to perform better than anticipated. This election took place shortly after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, allowing states to impose strict limitations on abortion access. The ruling galvanized a higher-than-expected turnout among women, particularly young women, who supported Democratic candidates in the House of Representatives and state elections.

Now, with Vice President Harris stepping into the role of the Democratic candidate, there is a renewed wave of enthusiasm among Democrats, especially women. Polls conducted weeks before Harris’ nomination showed President Joe Biden trailing behind his Republican opponent, Donald Trump. However, Harris’ emergence has energized many, with women’s health, abortion rights, and reproductive freedom—issues Harris has long championed—taking center stage in the campaign. According to Brookings Institution’s Elaine Kamarck, these issues will be pivotal in the election. Harris has also advocated for policies important to women, including paid parental leave, child care, and economic policies that resonate with younger and minority women. The support for Harris from women’s groups is already visible through increased funding and outreach efforts.

With Harris leading the ticket, the question arises: Will this newfound enthusiasm and potential surge in female voter turnout be sufficient to secure her victory in November? To explore this, it’s essential to review the role of women’s votes in recent presidential elections, identify the demographics most favorable to Democratic candidates, and examine how gender differences in voter turnout could provide women with an electoral advantage. Additionally, analyzing the demographic shifts among female voters from 2012 to the present reveals a rise in Democratic-leaning groups within this electorate. Finally, a simulation of the 2024 election, based on recent polling data, offers insights into Harris’ chances if this enthusiasm translates into increased voter turnout and support among women.

Historically, women have shown a consistent preference for Democratic candidates in presidential elections. Since 1984, women have consistently voted for Democrats over Republicans. This trend is evident in recent elections, as illustrated by the Democratic-Republican (D-R) vote margins by gender from 2000 to 2020. In each election, the D-R margins have been positive for women, who have leaned more Democratic than men, regardless of the party that ultimately won the presidency.

The 2020 election, in particular, highlighted significant gender disparities in voting patterns across battleground states. In seven key states, only one of which (North Carolina) was won by Trump, women exhibited positive D-R margins, while men showed negative margins. The most pronounced gender disparities were observed in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia, where women’s votes were crucial in securing Democratic victories.

These gender differences extended across various demographic groups in the 2020 election. Women’s D-R margins were higher than men’s in groups that traditionally lean Democratic, such as Black voters, Hispanic voters, and young voters aged 18 to 29. Even among non-college-educated white women, who generally favor Republicans, the negative D-R margins were smaller compared to their male counterparts. The only exception was among Asian American voters, where men’s D-R margins were higher than women’s.

Beyond partisan preferences, voter turnout rates will play a crucial role in determining women’s influence in the upcoming election. Since 1980, women have consistently exhibited higher turnout rates than men in presidential elections. In the 2020 election, these turnout rates reached their highest levels in decades. Due to their higher turnout and longer life expectancy, there were 9.7 million more female voters than male voters in 2020.

Women’s higher turnout rates also contributed to their majority share of the electorate, comprising 53% of all voters in 2020. However, this share varies across different demographic groups. For instance, women accounted for 58% of Black voters, 55% of Asian voters, and 54% of Hispanic voters. Among voters aged 65 and older, 54% were women. Even within the white non-college graduate group, which tends to favor Republicans, women still made up a majority of 52%.

As the size of the female electorate continues to grow, its demographic composition is also evolving. Between 2012 and 2024, there have been notable shifts in the profile of eligible female voters by race and education. Specifically, there have been gains in women’s groups that are more likely to vote Democratic—such as white college graduates and women of color—and a decline in the women’s group that tends to favor Republicans—white non-college graduates. For the first time in a presidential election, the latter group will comprise less than 40% of the female electorate.

Similar demographic shifts are evident in the battleground states, where the female electorate has become more diverse and Democratic-leaning. In states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, there has been a decline in the share of white non-college-educated women and an increase in the share of women of color. For example, in Nevada, the proportion of white non-college-educated women decreased from 48% in 2012 to 35% in 2024, while the proportion of women of color increased from 36% to 47% over the same period. These demographic changes have contributed to a more Democratic-leaning voter profile among women in these states.

As polls conducted before and after Harris’ nomination reveal, there are early indications of how the 2024 election might unfold. Three polls of likely voters conducted by the New York Times/Siena College on June 26, July 3, and July 25—after Biden’s endorsement of Harris—show shifts in D-R voting margins among men and women. Notably, the D-R margin for women stood at 14% in favor of Harris versus Trump on July 25, while the negative D-R margin for men remained high at 17%.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate has the potential to reshape the dynamics of the 2024 election, particularly with regard to the women’s vote. The enthusiasm and support for Harris among women, coupled with the changing demographic composition of the female electorate, suggest that women will play a decisive role in the outcome of the election. If this newfound enthusiasm translates into higher voter turnout and increased support for Harris among women, it could significantly boost her chances of winning the presidency in November.

Vice President Kamala Harris is intensifying her focus on high food and housing costs, a central concern for voters, as she prepares to deliver an economic policy speech in North Carolina. In her speech, Harris is expected to advocate for a federal ban on price gouging in groceries and outline strategies to reduce other living costs, positioning these initiatives as extensions of the current administration’s efforts.

Although inflation has recently hit its lowest point in over three years, food prices remain significantly elevated, with a 21% increase compared to three years ago. Former President Donald Trump, now the Republican presidential nominee, has been critical of the Biden administration’s handling of inflation, making it a key issue in his campaign.

Housing costs, another major contributor to inflation, are also a focal point of Harris’s policy proposals. She plans to leverage federal resources to facilitate the construction of three million new housing units, legislate to curb rent hikes, and offer $25,000 in down-payment assistance to first-time homebuyers if elected. Harris is aligning herself closely with President Joe Biden’s legislative and economic record, framing her plans as continuations of their joint work over the past three and a half years.

The proposed Harris housing plan includes the introduction of a tax credit for builders who develop starter homes aimed at first-time buyers and the expansion of a $20 billion “innovation fund” from the Biden administration to support housing construction. The down-payment assistance plan would also significantly build on Biden’s existing proposal to offer federal aid to first-time homebuyers.

Earlier this week, both Biden and Harris celebrated their administration’s achievements in lowering prescription drug prices at an event in Maryland. This marked Harris’s first joint speaking engagement with Biden since she assumed the lead on the Democratic ticket nearly four weeks ago. During the event, they announced that negotiated drug prices would reduce the costs of ten of Medicare’s most expensive drugs, cutting prices by hundreds or even thousands of dollars. This program, a result of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act focused on health care and climate, was made possible through Harris’s tiebreaking vote in the Senate, which allowed Democrats to overcome unified Republican opposition. As Biden noted, “The tiebreaking vote of Kamala made that possible,” adding his confidence that Harris would be a formidable president.

Biden has also undertaken initiatives to combat rising food prices, including the establishment of a “competition council” aimed at reducing costs by fostering competition within the meat industry. This is part of a broader strategy to demonstrate that his administration is actively working to tackle inflation. When questioned on Thursday about whether he was concerned Harris might distance herself from his economic policies, Biden assured reporters, “She’s not going to.”

Public opinion, however, reveals a mixed response to Harris’s economic capabilities. According to the latest poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, 45% of Americans believe Trump is better suited to handle the economy, while 38% favor Harris. Notably, about one in ten respondents expressed trust in neither candidate regarding economic management.

Speaking at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, Trump criticized Harris’s proposals, labeling them as “communist price controls” that would exacerbate shortages, hunger, and inflation. As he made these remarks, Trump was flanked by popular grocery items to underscore his point about rising food costs.

Harris’s housing plan also includes measures to address data-sharing and price-setting tools used by landlords to determine rents and the elimination of a tax incentive that has led investment firms to acquire substantial portions of the nation’s housing stock. Harris plans to contrast her approach with Trump’s, referencing a lawsuit brought against him by the Justice Department five decades ago for housing discrimination.

Consumer confidence surveys indicate that high prices continue to frustrate shoppers, especially those in lower-income brackets, despite the overall cooling of inflation. Prices across the board are about 21% higher than they were before the pandemic, although average incomes have risen slightly more, sustaining consumer spending even as many Americans report a pessimistic outlook on the economy.

Certain meat prices have risen even more steeply than overall inflation: beef prices have surged nearly 33% since the pandemic began, chicken by 31%, and pork by 21%, according to government data. Pandemic-related supply chain disruptions played a role in these increases, as many meat processing plants temporarily shut down due to COVID-19 outbreaks among workers.

The Biden administration, however, has argued that corporate consolidation in the meat processing industry has been a more significant factor, enabling a few large companies to hike prices beyond their costs. In late 2021, the White House noted that four major companies control between 55% and 85% of the beef, chicken, and poultry markets, naming Tyson Foods and JBS among the dominant players. These companies have paid out hundreds of millions of dollars to settle price-fixing lawsuits for chicken, beef, and pork, though they have not admitted to any wrongdoing.

Some economists have suggested that large food and consumer goods companies took advantage of pandemic-era disruptions, a phenomenon economist Isabella Weber at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, termed “seller’s inflation.” Others have referred to it as “greedflation.”

Harris’s proposals to curb price gouging come at a time when there is some evidence that this “seller’s inflation” is easing. Consumers are becoming more selective and are opting for lower-cost alternatives over more expensive options. The government reported Wednesday that grocery prices, on average nationwide, have risen just 1.1% in the past year, aligning with pre-pandemic price increases.

The meat industry has long been defending against allegations of price gouging and price-fixing. Major players in the industry dispute claims that their consolidation is responsible for high prices. Glynn Tonsor, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, explained that the increased costs of raising animals, processing meat, and delivering it to consumers have contributed to higher prices. “Yes, consumers are seeing higher prices, but it doesn’t necessarily mean somebody is gouging them,” Tonsor said.

Julie Anna Potts, President, and CEO of the Meat Institute trade group, echoed this sentiment, arguing that Harris’s proposal would not address the underlying causes of inflation. “Consumers have been impacted by high prices due to inflation on everything from services to rent to automobiles, not just at the grocery store,” Potts said. “A federal ban on price gouging does not address the real causes of inflation.”

Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, has quickly risen to the forefront of the presidential race just three weeks into her campaign. This surge has put her ahead in horserace polling, a challenge that former President Joe Biden struggled to overcome during his time as a candidate. However, the sustainability of this momentum remains uncertain.

The political landscape in the United States has been particularly tumultuous in recent weeks. Significant events, such as the July 13 assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the Republican convention, Trump’s selection of a running mate, Biden’s decision to exit the presidential race, and Harris’s choice of a vice-presidential candidate, have all contributed to the current dynamics. Each of these events alone would typically cause a temporary shift in polling numbers. However, the cumulative impact of these occurrences makes it difficult to determine the true state of the race. With the Democratic convention approaching, yet another potential shift in voter sentiment looms.

As the race evolves, questions arise about its structural changes and the possibility of Trump regaining the lead. A surge of polling in the coming days will begin to shed light on these uncertainties, followed by a critical two-month period of intense polling. Several key metrics have emerged as indicators of Harris’s early success, including her rising personal favorability and the narrowing gap in Trump’s advantage on economic issues, a core aspect of his campaign.

Neil Newhouse, lead pollster for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, commented on the nature of the race, saying, “Presidential campaigns are a marathon, and this one has turned into a sprint. And that tends to favor the candidate who is new on the horizon.”

To gain a deeper understanding of the current state of the race, five key numbers should be closely monitored beyond the basic horserace polling.

Kamala Harris’ Favorability Rating

On June 27, Harris’s favorability rating stood at 39 percent, according to a RealClearPolitics average. As of now, that number has climbed to 45 percent. Voters are beginning to see Harris in a new light since she became the Democratic presidential candidate.

For the past three years, there has been a significant disparity between the number of voters who viewed Harris favorably and those who held an unfavorable opinion of her. However, that gap has narrowed. In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, likely voters in key battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were nearly evenly split in their views of Harris, with 50 percent holding a favorable opinion and 48 percent an unfavorable one.

Despite this improvement, there is no guarantee that it will last. Trump’s campaign has already launched an advertising blitz in battleground states, attempting to portray Harris as “dangerously liberal.” This negative campaigning could potentially erode her favorability ratings, particularly as her record faces increased scrutiny following the initial excitement of her campaign rollout.

“Image is a precursor to ballot change,” said Newhouse. “You’ll see her image change before the ballot changes. You’ll see her unfavs go up, her very unfavs in particular.”

Trump, too, is experiencing a high point in his favorability, at least since the 2020 election. This surge follows the assassination attempt and the Republican convention, but it’s possible that his numbers might also recede to more typical levels, which have generally been unfavorable.

“With Kamala Harris, it’s like ‘A Star is Born,’” observed Mark Mellman, lead pollster for then-Sen. John Kerry in the 2004 presidential race. “It’s not unreal. It’s not unnatural. It’s not fake. But it’s not necessarily permanent. I can certainly imagine a situation where both candidates’ favorabilities decline a little bit.”

Third-Party Vote Share

On July 21, the percentage of voters indicating support for one of the three independent or third-party candidates—Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, or Jill Stein—stood at 12.2 percent, according to a RealClearPolitics average. Today, that number has dropped to 7.1 percent.

While this metric is technically part of the horserace question, it also provides insight into an election where a larger portion of voters now appears to favor their primary options. This shift is attributed to Harris’s surge in popularity and the post-assassination and post-conviction rise in Trump’s favorability. Before Harris replaced Biden on the Democratic ticket, a significant portion of voters expressed dislike for both Biden and Trump, with as many as a quarter of voters falling into this category.

These voters, often referred to as “double-haters,” were seen as potentially decisive in the election. However, their numbers have dwindled. A recent Monmouth University poll revealed that only 8 percent of registered voters now hold unfavorable views of both major-party candidates. Consequently, there are fewer voters inclined to support Kennedy, West, or Stein.

Voter Enthusiasm

Among Democrats, 62 percent are “very enthusiastic” about the election, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Among Republicans, the figure is slightly higher, at 63 percent.

While higher enthusiasm doesn’t always translate into victory, as seen in the 2012 election where Romney supporters were more enthusiastic than Obama’s, Harris has managed to energize the Democratic base in a way that Biden and the fear of a second Trump term had not. In the New York Times/Siena College polls, Democrats and Harris supporters expressed enthusiasm for voting at levels comparable to Republicans and Trump supporters.

The enthusiasm gap is even more pronounced in the Monmouth poll, where 85 percent of Democrats described themselves as enthusiastic about the Harris-Trump race, compared to 71 percent of Republicans. The level of enthusiasm among Republicans remained unchanged from June, when Monmouth pollsters inquired about a potential Trump-Biden rematch. However, for Democrats, this represents a significant shift, as only 46 percent expressed enthusiasm about the rematch before the debate.

While enthusiasm alone doesn’t guarantee more votes, it could play a crucial role in a close race by closing the energy gap between supporters of different candidates.

Perceptions on Economic Leadership

In June, Trump held a substantial lead over Biden on the economy, with 54 percent of voters favoring him compared to Biden’s 45 percent, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll. Now, the gap has narrowed significantly, with Trump at 51 percent and Harris at 48 percent.

Trump’s strong advantage on economic issues has been a central feature of his campaign. However, Harris’s entry into the race has disrupted this dynamic. Polls now show a much closer contest on economic leadership between Trump and Harris, with Trump holding a slight edge of 3 points in a national NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll and 6 points in the Rust Belt battlegrounds surveyed by the New York Times/Siena College.

Harris is eager to establish her own record on the economy. She has planned an event in North Carolina to present her plan to lower costs, signaling her intent to differentiate herself from Biden’s record on inflation, which could be a significant challenge for her campaign.

National Direction Perception

On June 27, 25 percent of voters believed the country was heading in the right direction, while 65 percent thought it was on the wrong track. Today, these figures remain unchanged.

Although this metric hasn’t shifted, voters’ perceptions of it may be evolving. Previously, Trump was seen as the candidate representing change, a favorable position given that two-thirds of voters viewed the country as heading in the wrong direction. However, Harris’s entry into the race has complicated Trump’s status as the candidate of change. She is now positioning herself as the fresh, new face of the campaign, with an emphasis on her youth and vision for the future. This contrasts with Trump, who at 78 years old, is the first person in 80 years to be his party’s presidential nominee in three consecutive elections.

Trump and his supporters will likely focus on convincing voters that Harris, as vice president, bears responsibility for the current state of the country and should be held accountable for the perceived wrong direction.

A significant new poll indicates Kamala Harris has overtaken Donald Trump in three pivotal swing states, marking a substantial momentum shift for the Democratic party just three months before the election.

The poll shows the vice-president leading the former president by four percentage points—50% to 46%—across Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. This survey, conducted by the New York Times and Siena College, sampled nearly 2,000 likely voters between August 5 and 9.

This polling period coincided with Harris’s announcement of Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota and a former high school teacher from the Midwest, as her running mate for the November Democratic ticket.

The poll results offer the most definitive snapshot yet of voter sentiment in critical battleground states since Joe Biden exited the race, throwing his support behind Harris amid increasing concerns about his cognitive health and capacity to serve a second term. This development follows months of polling that showed Biden either neck-and-neck with or slightly trailing Trump.

Registered voters in these states perceive Harris as more intelligent, honest, and temperamentally suited to govern the country compared to Trump.

These findings, released on Saturday by the New York Times, are likely to energize the Democratic base as Harris and Walz continue their campaign across the country. This week marks their first together on the campaign trail, with multiple events planned in swing states that could determine the election outcome.

On Saturday, Harris and Walz held a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada—a state that Biden and Harris won by over two points in the 2020 election.

Although the poll offers only a brief glimpse into the current state of the race, Democrats may find optimism in the fact that 60% of surveyed independent voters—a crucial demographic in determining election outcomes—expressed satisfaction with the presidential candidates. This is a marked increase from the 45% reported in May.

The shift appears to be largely influenced by changing voter perceptions of Harris, who has garnered praise for her positive and forward-looking speeches on the campaign trail. In Pennsylvania, where Biden narrowly defeated Trump by just over 80,000 votes in the previous election, Harris’s favorability rating among registered voters has increased by 10 points since last month, according to the Times/Siena polling data.

To secure a Democratic victory, Harris must win in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan—key battleground states that Biden won in 2020.

The latest polls may further frustrate Trump, whose recent campaign events have been dominated by anger and apparent disbelief at the swift change in momentum. Just weeks ago, Trump announced JD Vance, Ohio senator and former venture capitalist, as his running mate during the Republican national convention, which had a celebratory atmosphere.

Vance has faced criticism from Democrats, who have labeled him as “weird” due to his controversial comments in 2021 about the United States being run by “childless cat ladies.” The new poll shows that the majority of independents, Democrats, and even some Republicans view Vance unfavorably or with little enthusiasm.

Despite this, Democrats still face challenges in effectively communicating Harris’s vision for the country. The poll reveals that 60% of registered voters believe Trump has a clear vision for the nation, compared to 53% for Harris.

Moreover, Trump continues to lead in voter confidence on handling the economy and immigration—two of the three most critical issues for voters, according to the polls.

Nevertheless, Harris holds a significant 24-point lead over Trump on the issue of abortion, which Democrats hope will mobilize voters in crucial swing states like Arizona and Wisconsin. Harris is also perceived far more favorably than Trump regarding democracy. Trump remains embroiled in legal challenges, including charges related to his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election results and his involvement in the January 6 Capitol insurrection.

In response to the poll, Tony Fabrizio, the Trump campaign’s chief pollster, asserted that the new surveys “dramatically understated President Trump’s support,” pointing to polling errors in the 2020 election that overestimated Biden’s margin of victory.

In the current economic landscape, having substantial wealth has always been advantageous, but now more than ever, it seems to be a particularly opportune time to be affluent. The Institute for Policy Studies highlights that during the COVID-19 pandemic, American billionaires saw their wealth increase by 62%. Meanwhile, Oxfam reports that the wealthiest 1% of the world amassed two-thirds of the $42 trillion in new wealth generated in the years following the pandemic.

Vice President Kamala Harris, who is positioning herself as a strong candidate for the presidency, shares concerns with her current superior, President Joe Biden, regarding these statistics. Both see these figures as indicative of an unhealthy level of wealth inequality and economic disparity in the country. Should Harris secure a victory in the November election and work with a cooperative Congress, the wealthy in America might find themselves facing significant changes, particularly those with large fortunes.

Harris’s Wealth Tax Proposal

One of Harris’s primary focuses as a potential president would be to implement tax policies that target the wealthiest Americans. Dennis Shirshikov, a professor of finance, accounting, and economics at the City University of New York, and a seasoned real estate investor, anticipates that a Harris administration would advocate for significant tax reforms aimed at increasing the tax burden on high-income earners. “A Kamala Harris presidency could bring significant changes to the tax landscape for the wealthy,” Shirshikov notes.

A critical component of these potential changes is the introduction of a wealth tax. This idea is embedded in the Biden-Harris 2025 budget proposal, which argues that the current tax code is skewed in favor of the wealthy, allowing them to pay disproportionately low taxes compared to middle-class Americans. The proposal aims to impose a minimum tax of 25% on individuals with wealth exceeding $100 million, addressing what it describes as a glaring inequity in the tax system.

Taxing Capital Gains and Unrealized Gains

Another area of focus for Harris would be closing tax loopholes that disproportionately benefit the wealthy. The Biden-Harris budget proposal plans to treat capital gains as regular income for individuals earning $1 million or more, a significant shift from current tax policies. This change would also eliminate the carried interest loophole, which allows investment fund managers to pay lower tax rates than average workers, and the like-kind exchange loophole, which lets real estate investors defer taxes indefinitely.

Perhaps the most groundbreaking proposal is the taxation of unrealized gains for the ultra-wealthy, a concept described by IFC Media as a “radical departure from normal taxation.” Traditionally, unrealized gains — the increase in value of an asset that has not yet been sold — are not taxed. However, Harris’s proposed 25% tax on these gains for individuals with fortunes exceeding $100 million would mark a significant shift in U.S. tax policy.

Implications for High Earners

Harris’s tax proposals are not limited to the ultra-rich. She also supports raising the top marginal tax rate, a move that would affect a broader range of high-income earners. According to Shirshikov, “This approach aligns with her broader goal of addressing income inequality and ensuring that the wealthiest Americans contribute a fairer share to public revenues.”

The Biden-Harris 2025 budget proposal specifically seeks to repeal the tax cuts implemented under former President Donald Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which reduced the top tax rate for high earners to 37%. Under the new proposal, the top tax rate would be restored to 39.6% for single filers earning more than $400,000 annually and married couples earning more than $450,000. Although these income levels might seem modest compared to billionaire wealth, they place individuals in the top 2% of earners, according to the Tax Foundation. The Biden-Harris administration believes that targeting this group is a reasonable step in addressing income inequality.

The anticipated tax changes under a Harris presidency are intended to generate revenue for social programs and address the widening wealth gap in America. However, these measures are also expected to have significant implications for investment strategies and financial planning among the affluent. As Shirshikov advises, individuals in this income bracket would be wise to start preparing now by consulting with their financial advisors.

Final Thoughts

A Kamala Harris presidency could bring about profound changes in the way the wealthy are taxed in the United States. Her proposals, embedded in the Biden-Harris 2025 budget, aim to create a more equitable tax system that ensures the wealthiest Americans pay a fairer share. Whether through the introduction of a wealth tax, the taxation of unrealized gains, or the increase in the top marginal tax rate, Harris’s potential policies are likely to have a significant impact on the financial landscape for high-income earners in America.

Vice President Kamala Harris has officially chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate for the upcoming November election, where they will face off against former President Donald Trump. Harris made the announcement on Tuesday, both through an Instagram post and a text message to her supporters, highlighting Walz’s commitment to middle-class families and his diverse background, which includes service in the National Guard and experience as a teacher.

Harris praised Walz in her Instagram post, emphasizing his strong background and how it has shaped his political career. She wrote, “I share this background both because it’s impressive in its own right, and because you see in no uncertain terms how it informs his record.” Harris was particularly struck by Walz’s dedication to his family, naming his wife Gwen and their children, Gus and Hope. “But what impressed me most about Tim is his deep commitment to his family: Gwen, Gus, and Hope,” she noted. Harris also mentioned her husband, Doug Emhoff, expressing their eagerness to collaborate with Walz and his family in building an administration that reflects shared values. “Doug and I look forward to working with him and Gwen to build an administration that reflects our shared values.”

The vice president also shared her excitement about the upcoming campaign, stating, “We are going to build a great partnership. We are going to build a great team. We are going to win this election.”

Walz, who is 60 years old, was not initially seen as a frontrunner for the vice-presidential spot. The early stages of the selection process were dominated by speculation around more prominent figures like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. However, Walz’s standing improved significantly over the past week, especially after a viral cable news interview where he criticized some Republicans as “weird.” This comment resonated with national Democrats, who soon adopted this line of criticism.

The selection of Walz comes after a rapid and intense two-week period that began with President Joe Biden announcing the end of his reelection bid. Harris quickly consolidated support within the Democratic Party, becoming the presumptive nominee, and her team moved swiftly to vet potential running mates.

The choice of Walz has been met with approval from both progressive and moderate Democrats. Progressive leader Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York expressed her approval on social media, stating, “Vice President Harris made an excellent decision in Gov. Walz as her running mate. Together, they will govern effectively, inclusively, and boldly for the American people. They won’t back down under tight odds, either – from healthcare to school lunch.” This sentiment was echoed by Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas, who was the first House Democrat to suggest that Biden should not seek reelection. Doggett described Walz as a “solid, decent former colleague with good humor, a former teacher and veteran, who represented a Minnesota district usually represented by the GOP.” He further added, “You can’t not get along with no-nonsense Tim. As Governor, he offers a straight-talking, compassionate leader delivering the progress we need.”

Harris took her time finalizing her decision on a running mate, with reports indicating that she had not made up her mind until late Monday night, only hours before the announcement. Walz was ultimately seen as a safe choice, especially when compared to other potential candidates who had faced criticism from various factions within the Democratic Party. Shapiro, for example, had been under scrutiny for his handling of pro-Palestinian protests following the Israel-Hamas war, and both he and Kelly had drawn criticism from union leaders.

Another factor that made Walz an appealing choice is his Midwestern roots. Trump has increasingly focused on flipping Midwestern states like Minnesota, a state that Biden won by seven points in 2020. Although no Republican has won Minnesota in a presidential election for more than 50 years, Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, have intensified their efforts to campaign in the state.

However, Walz is not without potential weaknesses. Republicans are expected to use his stances on issues like abortion and LGBTQ rights to portray him as a radical liberal, a tactic they have previously used against Harris. Walz’s tenure as governor during the riots that erupted after George Floyd’s murder in Minneapolis will likely be a focal point of Republican attacks. The Trump campaign has already linked Harris to the unrest, criticizing her for supporting a bail fund for protesters arrested during the unrest in Minnesota.

Trump campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt issued a statement attacking the Harris-Walz ticket, saying, “It’s no surprise that San Francisco Liberal Kamala Harris wants West Coast wannabe Tim Walz as her running-mate – Walz has spent his governorship trying to reshape Minnesota in the image of the Golden State.” Leavitt went on to criticize Walz’s policies, including his support for a carbon-free agenda, stricter emission standards for gas-powered cars, and voting rights for convicted felons. “From proposing his own carbon-free agenda, to suggesting stricter emission standards for gas-powered cars, and embracing policies to allow convicted felons to vote, Walz is obsessed with spreading California’s dangerously liberal agenda far and wide,” she said. Leavitt also warned voters about the Harris-Walz ticket, saying, “If Walz won’t tell voters the truth, we will: just like Kamala Harris, Tim Walz is a dangerously liberal extremist, and the Harris-Walz California dream is every American’s nightmare.”

Despite the criticism, Harris and Walz are moving forward with their campaign, with plans to visit several battleground states this week. Their first stop is in Philadelphia on Tuesday evening, followed by visits to Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada. Scheduled trips to North Carolina and Georgia have been postponed due to the impact of Hurricane Debby in the Southeast.

The Harris-Walz campaign is expected to be a closely watched race as they prepare to challenge Trump and Vance in what promises to be a highly contested election.

Vice President Kamala Harris has significantly reduced former President Donald Trump’s lead since she assumed the role of Democratic presidential candidate from Joe Biden. According to recent polls, Harris is now tied with Trump in crucial swing states and leads him by a slim margin nationwide.

Key Facts

A CBS News poll released on Sunday reveals that Harris holds a one-point lead over Trump nationally, a shift driven in part by increased support from younger and Black voters, along with women who believe Harris will advocate for their interests (margin of error 2.1 points). The CBS News survey, conducted from July 30 to August 2, also shows a deadlock between Harris and Trump across seven key battleground states, namely Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada.

Further support for Harris emerges in an Economist/YouGov poll released on Wednesday, which places her two points ahead of Trump, 46% to 44%, in a five-way race that includes third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West. This trend is consistent with several other polls taken since Biden withdrew from the race. Harris is currently ahead in at least four more surveys, although Trump maintains a lead in at least eight others. Many of these polls, however, indicate that Harris has eroded Trump’s advantage over Biden and that her approval rating has improved since she launched her campaign.

Morning Consult’s weekly poll, conducted from July 26 to 28, shows Harris with a one-point lead over Trump, 47% to 46%, marking the second consecutive week she has outperformed Trump in their poll. Additionally, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday indicates Harris is leading by one point, 43% to 42%, although this is a slight decrease from her two-point lead in their previous survey conducted July 22-23.

In contrast, Trump led Harris by three points in a Harvard CAPS-Harris poll conducted from July 26 to 28 when respondents were given the option to choose “don’t know/unsure.” This marks a four-point drop from Trump’s seven-point lead over Biden in a June Harvard CAPS-Harris poll. In a two-way matchup, Trump maintains a four-point lead over Harris, consistent with his previous lead over Biden in June.

Other polls reflect a narrow advantage for Trump. A New York Times/Siena poll conducted from July 22 to 24 shows Trump with a one-point lead, 48% to 47%. Similarly, a Wall Street Journal poll from July 23 to 25 and a HarrisX/Forbes online survey released on June 26 both show Trump leading by two points, 49% to 47% and 47% to 45%, respectively.

Additional polls present a consistent, albeit slight, lead for Trump. He is ahead by three points, 49% to 46%, in an online CNN/SSRS survey conducted July 22-23, by two points, 47% to 45%, in another Morning Consult poll, by one point, 46% to 45%, in a NPR/PBS/Marist poll, and by three points, 44% to 41%, in an Economist/YouGov poll conducted from July 21 to 23. The latter poll also finds Kennedy with 5% support.

Despite these mixed results, polls consistently show that Harris outperforms Biden. Before Biden exited the race, he trailed Trump by six points in polls conducted by Morning Consult, CNN/SSRS, The Wall Street Journal, and Times/Siena.

Big Number

Trump leads Harris by an average of 0.8 points, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. Conversely, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average gives Harris a 1.5-point lead.

Surprising Fact

The New York Times/Siena poll highlights an increased voter engagement following the June 27 Biden-Trump debate, which was largely viewed as a poor showing for Biden. Since the debate, 64% of respondents reported paying close attention to the election, up from 48% before the debate.

Harris vs. Trump in Swing States

Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states that are likely to determine the election outcome: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, as indicated by a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted from July 24 to 28. Harris is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, while Trump leads in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The two are tied in Georgia.

Tangent

Democrats appear more enthusiastic about Harris than they were about Biden, as shown by the Times/Siena survey. Nearly 80% of Democratic-leaning voters express a preference for Harris as the nominee, compared to just 48% who said the same about Biden three weeks earlier. The contrast is also evident in perceptions of mental fitness, with 56% of voters in a Reuters/Ipsos poll stating that Harris is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% who said the same about Trump and only 22% for Biden. Moreover, a 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll found that 87% of Americans support Biden’s decision to end his campaign. More respondents believe this decision will benefit the Democratic Party (45%) rather than the Republican Party (29%).

The 19th News survey also indicates a divide in public opinion regarding Harris’ gender and race. Thirty-one percent of respondents think her being a woman will help her, while 33% believe it will hurt her, and 34% see no impact. There is more optimism regarding Harris’ identity as Black and Indian American, with 32% viewing it as a benefit, 24% seeing it as a disadvantage, and 41% expecting it to have no impact.

Contra

Tony Fabrizio, a pollster for the Trump campaign, predicted a temporary boost in Harris’ polling numbers, coining the term “Harris Honeymoon” in a memo released after the Reuters/Ipsos poll became public. Fabrizio suggested this surge would be short-lived as her entry into the race is expected to energize Democratic voters.

Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election, is now leading former President Donald Trump in eight recent national polls. These polls, conducted by various research firms, reveal a competitive race with Harris holding a slight edge over her Republican opponent.

The latest poll by RMG Research, released on Friday, shows Harris with a 5-point lead over Trump, with 47% of the vote compared to Trump’s 42%. This survey, conducted among 3,000 registered voters between July 29 and July 31, suggests a growing support base for Harris as the campaign intensifies.

Similarly, a Civiqs poll conducted between July 27 and July 30 indicates Harris leading Trump by 5 points. Out of 1,123 registered voters surveyed, Harris garnered 49% of the vote, while Trump received 45%. This poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning Harris’s lead is statistically significant.

In a poll conducted by Leger between July 26 and July 28, Harris leads Trump by 3 points. The poll surveyed 1,002 U.S. residents and showed Harris with 49% of the vote to Trump’s 46%. Notably, this represents a 4-point increase for Harris since Leger’s June poll. When third-party candidates were factored into this poll, Harris’s lead extended to 7 points, with 48% compared to Trump’s 41%.

Four other national polls show Harris with a narrower lead of 2 points over Trump. These include a poll by The Economist and YouGov, where Harris polled at 46% among 1,434 registered voters, within the poll’s margin of error of 3%. Other polls conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, Angus Reid, and Florida Atlantic University, all conducted between July 23 and July 30, similarly showed Harris leading by 2 points, also within their respective margins of error.

The smallest lead for Harris was observed in a Morning Consult poll conducted between July 26 and July 28, where she led Trump by just 1 point. In this poll, Harris had 47% of the vote to Trump’s 46% among 2,223 registered U.S. voters. The margin of error for this poll is plus or minus 2 percentage points, indicating a very tight race.

The recent polling data reflects a positive trend for Harris since she officially launched her campaign two weeks ago. These polls suggest that Harris has managed to close the gap on Trump, a shift from when President Joe Biden was at the top of the Democratic ticket. Additionally, Harris is leading in multiple swing states, which could prove decisive in the upcoming November election.

However, despite these favorable polls for Harris, some experts still believe Trump remains the frontrunner to win the presidency. Election analyst and statistician Nate Silver has suggested that while Harris might win the popular vote, Trump could have the upper hand in the Electoral College.

Silver’s model gives Trump a 54.9% chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Harris’s 44.6% chance. In the popular vote, Harris has a 53.5% chance of winning, while Trump’s chances stand at 46.5%. This model also shows a close contest in critical battleground states. For example, Harris is slightly favored to win Michigan with about a 54% chance, while Trump has a similar chance to win Wisconsin, another key state. In Pennsylvania, Trump has a narrow edge with a 53% chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 47%. Trump holds stronger leads in other swing states, including Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Nate Silver is renowned for his accurate predictions, having correctly forecasted 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election, which adds weight to his current projections.

While these national polls show Harris leading, aggregate polls from The New York Times, The Hill, and RealClearPolitics present a slightly different picture. These aggregates show Trump leading Harris by 1 to 2 points. However, it is noteworthy that Trump’s lead over Harris is smaller compared to his margin over Biden before the latter exited the race.

As the race heats up, Harris is expected to announce her vice-presidential running mate soon. Once the decision is made, Harris and her running mate will embark on a campaign tour across key swing states in an effort to maintain the momentum her campaign has built since she took over the Democratic ticket. The Democratic National Convention, where Harris will formally accept the nomination, is scheduled to take place next week in Chicago.

Meanwhile, Trump continues his campaign with planned events aimed at rallying his base. He is scheduled to hold campaign rallies in Atlanta, Georgia, on August 3, and in Bozeman, Montana, on August 9, according to his campaign website.

As both candidates intensify their campaigns, the polling data suggests a fiercely contested election ahead. With Harris leading in several national polls but Trump still maintaining a strong position in key swing states, the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent history.

Vice President Kamala Harris is gearing up to announce her running mate by Tuesday, coinciding with her first rally alongside her chosen candidate in Philadelphia. This rally will kick off a whirlwind campaign tour across seven key swing states over four days. The cities on the itinerary include Philadelphia, western Wisconsin, Detroit, Raleigh, Savannah, Phoenix, and Las Vegas.

This campaign tour marks the first significant campaign event since Harris became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, following President Joe Biden’s unexpected exit from the race. The decision to embark on this tour reflects the campaign’s belief that the electoral landscape has broadened since Biden handed over the reins to Harris.

The Harris campaign shared the details of this tour exclusively with POLITICO. The choice to start the tour in Pennsylvania’s largest city has sparked speculation about her potential vice presidential pick. One of the leading candidates under consideration is Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. His inclusion would make Philadelphia an ideal location to unveil the decision, given his roots in the city’s suburbs. However, Philadelphia is also a diverse and voter-rich city crucial for any presidential candidate, due to Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes. Therefore, the choice of location might not necessarily indicate anything beyond strategic electoral considerations.

An aide from the Harris campaign advised against drawing too many conclusions from the choice of Philadelphia as the tour’s starting point. Harris herself stated that no final decision on her running mate has been made yet. When asked by reporters on Tuesday if she had selected her running mate, she responded, “not yet.”

In the coming days, Harris plans to interview several potential vice presidential candidates, according to sources familiar with the vetting process, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Among the other names being considered are Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

Governor Shapiro confirmed on Tuesday that he had not spoken to Harris since July 21, the day President Biden withdrew from the race. In recent days, Shapiro has been actively campaigning for Harris across Pennsylvania, a move that many Democrats interpret as an audition for the vice-presidential role. Shapiro headlined a rally with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer in the Philadelphia suburbs on Monday, promoted the IRS’s free tax filing program with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday, and participated in a Harris endorsement event with building trades unions on Friday.

During a visit to a youth basketball program in Philadelphia on Tuesday, Shapiro praised Harris as “a tough-as-nails prosecutor” while criticizing Trump’s running mate, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, stating he is “not exactly off to a good start.”

When asked about his interest in the vice-presidential role or whether he had submitted vetting materials to Harris’s team, Shapiro avoided a direct answer, instead emphasizing the importance of Harris’s choice. “The vice president has a very deeply personal decision to make right now: who she wants to run with, who she wants to govern with, and who can be by her side when she has to make the toughest decisions for the American people. I trust she will make that decision on her own terms when she is ready,” Shapiro stated.

Meanwhile, other vice-presidential contenders have been publicly showing their support for Harris, both in media appearances and fundraising efforts. Governor Tim Walz garnered attention for his viral remark that Trump’s GOP is made up of “weird people,” while Governor Andy Beshear took a jab at Senator Vance, stating on MSNBC that “JD Vance ain’t from here.”

Next week’s campaign tour will be Harris’s first extended tour through key battleground states, although she has already made some early campaign appearances. Last week, she held a rally in Wisconsin, and on Tuesday, she was in Georgia for another rally.

This tour is set to be a pivotal moment for the Harris campaign, as she looks to solidify her position and rally support across critical states. The outcome of her choice for a running mate and the success of this tour could have a significant impact on the overall trajectory of the campaign, as well as on the Democratic Party’s chances in the upcoming election.

President Joe Biden marked the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act on Monday with a visit to the LBJ Presidential Library, where he delivered remarks on his new proposals to reform the U.S. Supreme Court. This speech was his first significant address since announcing his decision to exit the 2024 presidential race.

Speaking in Austin, Texas, Biden highlighted his administration’s efforts to protect civil rights and called for reforms to the Supreme Court. His proposals include implementing term limits for justices, establishing an enforceable code of conduct, and proposing a constitutional amendment to prevent presidential immunity. However, these reforms face significant challenges in a politically divided Congress, where a Republican-controlled House and a closely divided Senate reduce the likelihood of approval.

“In recent years, extreme opinions that the Supreme Court has handed down have undermined long established civil rights principles and protections,” Biden stated. He expressed his respect for institutions and the separation of powers as outlined in the Constitution but criticized the current state of affairs, noting, “What’s happening now is not consistent with that doctrine of separation of powers. Extremism is undermining the public confidence in the court’s decisions.”

Biden cited recent Supreme Court decisions as the impetus for his reform proposals, accusing the court of undermining long-established civil rights protections. He expressed particular concern over the Supreme Court’s ruling in Trump vs. the United States, which established that a sitting president could have immunity for potential crimes committed while in office. “This nation is founded on the principle that there are no kings in America. Each of us is equal before the law. No one is above the law!” Biden asserted.

The significance of Biden’s remarks was heightened by the setting—he is the first sitting president since Lyndon B. Johnson to not seek reelection. With his focus now shifted from the campaign trail, Biden is intent on “finishing the job” in the final months of his presidency, aiming to solidify the legacy of his long political career.

Stephen Benjamin, director of the White House Office of Public Engagement, emphasized Biden’s determination to make the remaining months of his presidency impactful. “The president is focused like a laser beam on making sure that the next six months matter to the American people,” Benjamin told reporters. He added that Biden is actively seeking input from both within his administration and across the country, asking, “What is left undone, what else do we need to work to secure?”

Benjamin also indicated that Biden’s priorities would include holding the Supreme Court accountable, strengthening the economy, and reducing prices for American families. Biden’s proposal for an 18-year term limit for Supreme Court justices is aimed at ensuring the court undergoes regular changes and reducing the potential for any one presidency to have disproportionate influence on future generations. “That would make timing for the court’s nomination more predictable and less arbitrary,” Biden explained, arguing that such a measure would diminish the impact of an “extreme court attacking the confirmation process.”

Despite Biden’s push for these reforms, congressional Republicans have already signaled strong opposition. House Speaker Mike Johnson dismissed the proposed Supreme Court reforms as “dangerous” and declared them “dead on arrival in the House.” Similarly, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell criticized the administration’s push for reform, arguing that it stems from political disagreements with the court’s recent decisions. “Why is the Biden Harris administration so willing to put the crown jewel of our system of government, the independent judiciary, to the torch? Because it stands in their way,” McConnell argued.

Biden concluded his speech by speaking about Vice President Kamala Harris, who has been supportive of his court reform proposals and is now the leading contender for the Democratic presidential nomination. “I’ve made clear how I feel about Kamala,” Biden said. “She has been a champion of rights throughout her career. She will continue to be an inspiring leader and project the very ideal of America.”

This speech underscores Biden’s commitment to ensuring that his remaining time in office is used to advocate for significant reforms and to leave a lasting impact on the country. His focus on the Supreme Court, civil rights, and the economy highlights his priorities as he seeks to cement his legacy in his final months as president.

Former President Trump’s 2024 rivals rejoined the fold on Tuesday, as former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis took the stage, highlighting a push for unity at the GOP convention. Despite this, unity messaging was often overshadowed by attacks from figures like Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who targeted Democrats.

Nonetheless, the event has proceeded smoothly as Trump’s GOP promotes a positive message following his near-assassination. Here are five takeaways from the second day of the convention:

1. Republicans Strive to Overcome Divisions

Even though Trump easily secured the presidential nomination, divisions persisted within the GOP during the primaries, with some voters casting protest ballots against him. However, these conflicts have been temporarily set aside following the near-fatal shooting of Trump. Speakers emphasized unity for both the party and the nation, with prominent appearances by Trump’s top rivals, Haley and DeSantis.

Haley’s presence was significant, as she initially stated she wasn’t invited to the convention. This changed after the attempted assassination, leading her to fully endorse Trump. “I’ll start by making one thing perfectly clear,” Haley said. “Donald Trump has my strong endorsement.”

DeSantis, who had already backed Trump after exiting the race, reaffirmed his support, emphasizing his alignment with Trump. Their appearances, along with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announcing Kentucky delegates for Trump, showcase Republicans rallying around their nominee while President Biden deals with his party’s turmoil.

“We’re not all going to agree on everything, and that’s OK,” said Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), a moderate Republican. “You have to allow for robust debate and discussion. And ultimately, though, you have to find compromise and commonality and forge a path forward, and I think that’s what [Haley] was speaking to.”

However, underlying tensions remained. In a notable moment, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) taunted former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), reflecting internal Republican animosities even as they present a united front.

2. Unity Messaging Undermined by Attacks

Despite calls for unity across party lines following the shooting, some Republicans used their speeches to attack Democrats. Lake, running against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego for the Senate, blamed Democrats for various problems, including “the fake news” that obscures “disastrous Democrat policies.”

Cruz accused Democrats of prioritizing votes from undocumented immigrants over protecting children, eliciting boos from the crowd. “Today, as a result of Joe Biden’s presidency, your family is less safe,” Cruz said.

The media also faced criticism. Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson accused the press of “abus[ing] the public trust,” which led to more boos. “They divide us,” Carson claimed. “Our government has been no better.”

These remarks were striking given the convention’s theme of uniting Americans after the violent attack and the broader call to lower political temperatures.

3. Frequent References to Vice President Harris

Vice President Harris was frequently mentioned, reflecting discussions about possibly replacing Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. Haley criticized Harris’s handling of the border situation while hinting at the prospect of her leading the country. “Let me remind you: Kamala had one job. One job. And that was to fix the border. Now imagine her in charge of the entire country,” Haley said, prompting boos.

This rhetoric aligns with Trump allies’ increased attacks on Harris amid talks of a potential ticket swap, which Biden has rejected. Pennsylvania Senate Republican nominee David McCormick questioned Harris’s leadership, asking, “Who’s ready to retire Joe Biden and send border czar Kamala Harris back to California?”

Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird targeted Harris on policing issues, criticizing her reform calls. “They treat police like criminals and criminals like victims,” she said, referring to Biden and Harris.

Blaming Biden and Harris for the country’s problems was a recurring theme, likely to continue in GOP messaging through November. “You are worried that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are hurting our country because they are,” said Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), a former Democrat.

4. Battleground Senate Candidates Appeal to the Base

Senate candidates from key battleground states addressed the convention, criticizing their Democratic opponents and appealing to the GOP base as the party aims to reclaim the Senate in November. Lake led chants of “build the wall,” blaming the Biden administration for border issues.

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) brought his bulldog “Babydog” on stage, predicting political outcomes with the popular pet. “Babydog says we’ll retain the House, the majority in the House. We’re going to flip the United States Senate. And overwhelmingly we’re going to elect Donald Trump and JD Vance in November,” Justice proclaimed.

Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno (R) took a jab at rival Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), suggesting it’s time for both Democrats “to go home.” Wisconsin Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde called for national unity while blaming the media and the left for divisions.

“Instead of putting on just the blue jersey or the red jersey, we need to put on the red, white, and blue jersey and come together as Americans,” Hovde said, adding that Republicans will heal the country from divisions caused by the media and “left.”

These speeches energized the base, preparing them for competitive races in the fall.

5. Smooth Sailing for the Event

The Republican convention, now halfway over, has proceeded without significant issues. Speakers have generally stayed on message, praising Trump’s presidency and condemning the Biden administration for the country’s problems.

While some strayed from the unity message to attack Democrats, they consistently returned to the theme of voting for Trump. This contrasts with past conventions, such as in 2016 when Cruz told delegates to “vote your conscience” instead of rallying for Trump.

This time, Cruz began his remarks by “giving thanks to God Almighty” for Trump’s survival, a sentiment echoed by many speakers. The audience’s enthusiasm remained high despite the recent shooting, showing excitement each time Trump appeared. With two more days left, Republicans appear overwhelmingly satisfied with the convention’s progress.

Donald Trump has chosen Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his vice presidential running mate, putting an end to speculation over who would join him in challenging President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump made the announcement on Monday via his Truth Social post, stating, “After careful consideration and recognizing the talents of many others, I have decided that Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio is best suited for the role of Vice President of the United States.”

Later that day, during the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Vance was formally confirmed as Trump’s running mate. This decision came shortly after Trump himself was confirmed as the GOP’s presidential nominee earlier in the proceedings.

Vance’s selection marks a significant elevation for the 39-year-old senator, who entered politics less than two years ago as a relative newcomer. It also symbolizes Vance’s shift towards aligning with Trump’s political ideology, a contrast to his earlier criticisms of the former president.

Vance gained national recognition with his bestselling memoir “Hillbilly Elegy” in 2016, which reflected on his upbringing in rural Ohio and provided insights into the culture and politics of Appalachia. Despite initial skepticism, the book established Vance as a sharp political commentator, particularly attuned to the perspectives of the White working class.

Prior to his Senate tenure, Vance worked in the private sector, notably with Mithril Capital and as the founder of his own venture capital firm, Narya, starting in 2019. His entry into the Senate came after a successful campaign in 2022, where he secured victory over Democrat Tim Ryan.

In an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity, Vance recounted Trump’s call inviting him to join the ticket, quoting Trump as saying, “I believe you are the best person to assist me in governing and winning, especially in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.” This decision excluded other prominent contenders like Senator Marco Rubio and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, according to NBC News.

The Biden campaign swiftly criticized Vance’s selection, alleging that Vance’s alignment with Trump’s agenda would harm the nation. Campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon asserted, “Vance will support Trump’s extreme MAGA agenda, even at the cost of breaking laws and harming American citizens.”

In response to Harris’s acceptance of a vice presidential debate invitation, Vance received congratulations from Harris herself via a message, NBC sources confirmed. Shortly after Vance’s selection was made public, his wife Usha Vance resigned from her position at the law firm Munger, Tolles & Olson.

Before entering politics, Vance had been a vocal critic of Trump, famously describing him as a “total fraud” and likening his political movement to a harmful drug in writings for The Atlantic prior to Trump’s 2016 election victory. However, Vance’s views evolved significantly during his time in politics, leading him to become one of Trump’s staunchest supporters.

In recent months, Vance has actively embraced his pro-Trump stance, attending rallies and defending Trump vigorously, particularly during Trump’s legal battles. Vance attributed Trump’s survival of an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally to rhetoric from the Biden campaign, a claim that drew widespread criticism and calls for political restraint.

As a senator, Vance has taken controversial stances, including opposing U.S. aid to Ukraine amidst its conflict with Russia and voting consistently against legislation aimed at expanding federal abortion rights. His announcement as Trump’s running mate added further drama to a day already marked by significant Trump-related developments.

Earlier on the same day, a federal judge dismissed a criminal case against Trump, alleging illegal retention of classified documents and obstruction of government efforts to retrieve them.

In a recent NPR/PBS/Marist survey, President Joe Biden is shown leading former President Donald Trump by a narrow margin of 50% to 48% in a direct head-to-head matchup. However, when third-party candidates are included, Trump takes a slight edge, with Biden trailing by one point. These results are within the poll’s 3.1-point margin of error.

Trump has gained momentum, with Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker showing him ahead by 2.7 points, reflecting a 1.2-point increase in his favor since the debate. FiveThirtyEight’s tracker also indicates Trump leading by 2.1 points, marking a 1.9-point rise from June 27.

A poll conducted by ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post and released on Thursday reveals that Biden and Trump are currently tied among registered voters. When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is considered as an option, Trump leads by one point. This is seen as a positive outcome for Biden following the June 27 debate.

The poll highlights concerns about Biden’s age, with 67% of respondents believing he should withdraw from the race and 85% thinking he is too old to serve as president, up from 81% in April and 68% a year ago. Among Biden supporters, 54% think he should drop out, and 81% believe he is too old for another term.

Trump’s lead extends further in other polls. The latest Emerson College poll shows Trump ahead by three points over Biden, and Morning Consult’s weekly survey also indicates a two-point lead for Trump. A New York Times/Siena College survey conducted from June 28 to July 2 gives Trump a six-point advantage, representing a three-point swing in his favor since the previous poll, marking his widest lead in any poll by these groups since he began his first presidential campaign in 2015.

Similarly, a Wall Street Journal survey conducted after the debate finds Biden trailing Trump by six points, the largest gap recorded by Journal surveys since 2021 in a two-way matchup, showing a four-point increase in Trump’s lead since February. A CBS/YouGov post-debate poll taken in seven crucial battleground states shows Trump leading Biden by three points, reversing a one-point deficit from the previous month.

News Peg

Despite the increasing calls from 11 Democrats in the House, one in the Senate, several prominent pundits, and multiple major news outlets for Biden to reconsider his candidacy post-debate, Biden has firmly decided to stay in the race. However, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., indicated on Wednesday that Biden’s decision might not be final. Speaking on MSNBC, Pelosi said, “It’s up to the president to decide if he is going to run,” adding, “We’re all encouraging him to make that decision, because time is running short.”

Crucial Quote

“The question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now. And it’s time for it to end,” Biden stated in a letter to congressional Democrats on Monday.

What We Don’t Know

It remains uncertain how potential replacement candidates would perform against Trump in November. Most polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris, who is considered the most likely candidate to replace Biden if he steps down, would do better than other potential Democratic contenders like California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Harris and Biden’s poll results against Trump are similar, with some surveys showing Harris performing slightly better and others showing Biden with a slight edge. However, the impact of months of campaigning by Harris or another candidate without her national recognition is unknown.

What To Watch For

Polls prior to the debate consistently indicated that Trump leads Biden in the seven key swing states that are likely to decide the election outcome. A May Cook Political Report survey showed Trump with a three-point lead on average in these states. Similarly, a May Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Trump leading Biden by four points across these battleground states. An April poll by the New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer indicated Trump would win in five out of six swing states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, and Nevada), with Biden only ahead in Wisconsin.

Surprising Fact

In such a tight race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent run could significantly impact the election outcome, although it is unclear in whose favor. A May Emerson poll found that Trump’s lead over Biden increases from two points to five when Kennedy Jr., independent candidate Cornell West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are included. Kennedy Jr. received 6% support, while 10% of voters were undecided. A May Fox poll showed a two-point increase in Trump’s lead with the three independents on the ballot. The Times/Siena/Inquirer survey found Kennedy Jr. attracts votes from key Biden supporters, securing 10% of voters in six battleground states in a five-way contest. His support rises to 18% among voters aged 18 to 29 and 14% among Hispanic voters. A recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows Trump’s five-point lead remains unchanged with Kennedy Jr. on the ballot. Conversely, an April NBC poll found Biden trailing Trump by two points in a direct matchup but leading by two points when Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates are included.

Tangent

Polls consistently suggest that Biden and the Democratic Party have been losing support among crucial demographics, including Black, Latino, and younger voters, who previously largely supported the party. A May NPR/PBS/Marist survey indicated voters under 45 prefer Biden over Trump by just four points, and Biden leads among Gen Z/millennials by six points in a direct matchup. However, with third-party candidates included, the vote swings in Trump’s favor, by six points among Gen Z/millennials and eight points among voters under 45. The April Times/Siena/Inquirer poll also found Biden tied with Trump among Hispanic voters in six battleground states and trailing by four points among 18- to 29-year-olds in those states. These groups supported Biden with more than 60% in 2020. Biden also seems to be losing ground in Democratic strongholds like New York, where he is nine points ahead of Trump, according to a May Siena College survey, after beating Trump by 23 points in 2020.

Key Background

Biden and Trump are set for a historic rematch after securing their respective party nominations in March, ending the primary season earlier than usual. Polls show historically low voter enthusiasm, with both candidates having relatively low favorability ratings—below 45%. The NBC poll revealed that 64% of voters are “very interested” in this year’s election, a 20-year low. Trump has centered his campaign on his legal challenges, accusing prosecutors and judges of conspiring with Biden to damage his election chances, though there is no evidence to support this claim. Biden, on the other hand, has portrayed Trump as a threat to democracy, citing his role in the January 6 Capitol riots, and has criticized Trump for appointing Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade. Polls show that voters consistently consider the economy, immigration, abortion, and inflation as top issues. The Times/Siena/Inquirer survey found a majority trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy, crime, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but trust Biden more on abortion.

A new survey from a leading Democratic pollster shows President Joe Biden still in the running against Donald Trump, but facing increased risk of losing the election, while other top Democrats are gaining traction.

The national poll, conducted by Bendixen & Amandi following Biden’s problematic debate and shared exclusively with POLITICO, reveals Biden trailing Trump, 42 percent to 43 percent.

Among the 86 percent of likely voters who watched the debate, only 29 percent believe Biden has the mental capacity and physical stamina to serve another term, compared to 61 percent who do not. Additionally, only 33 percent feel he should remain the Democratic nominee, while 52 percent think he should step aside. Even among Democrats, just half support Biden continuing as the nominee or believe he is fit to serve another term.

Vice President Kamala Harris is now slightly ahead of Trump, 42 percent to 41 percent, according to the survey. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, despite not being a serious candidate, is ahead of Harris and leads Trump 43 percent to 41 percent.

The poll also examined other potential Democratic tickets and found a Clinton-Harris combination in the strongest position, beating Trump 43 percent to 40 percent, a four-point advantage over Biden-Harris.

Fernand Amandi, a veteran Miami-based pollster whose firm advised former President Barack Obama and conducted this poll, noted that more than one-third of Democrats do not view Biden as fit to run and think he should not continue. “Voters have significant concerns about President Biden’s advanced age, and their concerns have only grown louder,” he said. “But [they are] still not enough where it has made the race a blowout for Trump.”

Amandi expressed surprise at Hillary Clinton’s strength in the poll. “I’m really surprised by Hillary’s strength,” he said. “While some dismiss her as yesterday’s news and a candidate of the past, voters at least in this poll suggest they may be open to a Clinton comeback and that a ticket with Clinton as president and Harris as vice president is even ‘stronger together’,” referring to Clinton’s 2016 campaign slogan.

The poll also included other leading Democrats who might run if Biden steps aside, though they trailed both Harris and Trump. California Gov. Gavin Newsom lags behind Trump, 37 percent to 40 percent, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is slightly further behind Trump at 36 percent to 40 percent.

The survey of 1,000 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, was conducted by phone and email between July 2 and July 6. This comes as more Democratic officials, donors, and activists increase pressure on Biden to exit the race following his June 27 debate debacle.

Anthony Williams, special projects director at Bendixen & Amandi, noted that the openness to someone like Clinton shows a desire for a candidate tested on the international stage. “There’s a certain sophistication at play in the way voters are reacting. They are not knee-jerk reacting to the names that are being bandied about on television,” Williams said. “They are struggling with the same question the party is struggling with: Do we go with experience, or do we go with new? And I think, given everything going on with the world right now, if they can find someone with experience, that would help them sleep a little better.”

“We’re talking about relatively small differences — but important differences in a race that could come down to a couple points,” Williams added. “It’s almost as if [Clinton] finishes out Biden’s term in the experience lane.”

A Democratic ticket led by Harris with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate also did well, beating Trump by two percentage points, 42 percent to 40 percent. However, a Harris-Whitmer ticket is 2 points behind Trump, 39 to 41 percent.

Clinton, who at 76 is younger than both Trump and Biden, has publicly vowed not to run for president again and has reaffirmed her support for Biden after his Atlanta debate disaster. Shapiro, 51, took office last year after serving as attorney general and is a popular politician in his battleground state. Newsom and Whitmer are in their final terms and have been raising funds and campaigning for Biden.

Despite calls to step aside, Biden has pledged to keep running. He and White House officials pointed to his busy travel schedule before the debate and his bad cold as reasons for his poor performance. They stated that he has not had a cognitive examination and there is no reason for one.

The poll included a provocative question about whether voters would support Biden if he were cognitively diminished due to age and unlikely to complete another four years if it meant preventing Trump from winning. Forty-eight percent of voters said they would not support Biden for that reason, while 44 percent said they would, including 75 percent of Democrats. The strongest support for Biden came from Black voters, with 55 percent willing to back him even if he suffered age-related impairment and couldn’t complete the term.

Amandi noted that these answers show the floor of likely voters nationally who, despite reservations about Biden’s age and ability, would not let that stop them from opposing Trump, whom a majority see as a major threat.

In the poll, 53 percent of respondents viewed Trump becoming president as a grave danger to democracy in the U.S., while 37 percent dismissed it as partisan rhetoric.

“The debate exposed damage to both candidates — because one would have expected, in the aftermath of what the president himself described as a disastrous debate, for Trump to be opening up a significant lead,” Amandi said. “We’re not seeing that. And the backstop for that is voters having legitimate concerns about what Trump winning the presidency would mean for the future of the country and the democracy.”

Forty-eight percent of likely voters disagreed with the Supreme Court’s recent decision that Trump has immunity from criminal prosecutions for actions he took as president to subvert the 2020 election, while 40 percent agreed.

Amandi commissioned and conducted the poll to understand where likely voters stood after the June 27 debate — whether they would stick with Biden despite his struggles, and, if not, who else might be a viable alternative against Trump just three months before some states begin early voting.

“The debate has reset the race from the perspective of what it means if Biden continues on or if we go down an unprecedented and uncharted path of making a nominee switch because he decides to step aside,” he said. “Are there alternatives that would be competitive with Trump? The answer is there are two: Clinton and Harris, who have a small but significant lead.”

On a pivotal day in Washington, President Joe Biden held onto the Democratic nomination, though concerns about his decision to stay in the race were starkly highlighted. One of his party’s senators warned on CNN that Donald Trump could win in a “landslide,” underlining the risks involved in Biden’s refusal to step aside.

Biden’s determination has left Democrats increasingly worried that the president could jeopardize not only the White House but also their chances of retaking the House or retaining the Senate—challenges already seen as uphill battles.

The White House managed to quell rebellions in emotional meetings with Senate and House Democrats on Tuesday. However, even some of Biden’s supporters expressed doubts about his strategies and his ability to run a successful campaign. Uncertainty about Biden’s future grew on Wednesday with comments from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and actor George Clooney, who urged Biden to step aside.

Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado was among three Democrats who privately expressed concerns about Biden’s chances of winning in November, sources told CNN’s Dana Bash. Bennet later publicly voiced his fears. “Donald Trump is on track, I think, to win this election and maybe win it by a landslide and take with him the Senate and the House,” Bennet said on CNN. “So for me, this isn’t a question about polling. It’s not a question about politics. It’s a moral question about the future of our country.”

“The White House, in the time since that disastrous debate, I think, has done nothing to really demonstrate that they have a plan to win this election,” he added.

While Bennet’s comments do not reflect the public stance of all Democratic senators, the debate and its aftermath have undeniably stirred deep concerns within the party.

Pelosi alluded to this anxiety during an MSNBC appearance, suggesting that Biden’s place on the Democratic ticket was still in question despite his firm stance. “It’s up to the president to decide if he is going to run. We’re all encouraging him to make that decision because time is running short,” she said. “I want him to do whatever he decides to do and that’s the way it is.”

In a striking op-ed in The New York Times, Clooney criticized Biden after attending a fundraiser with him last month. “It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fundraiser was not the Joe ‘big F-ing deal’ Biden of 2010. He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate,” Clooney wrote. “We are not going to win in November with this president,” he warned, noting that lawmakers he spoke with privately shared this view.

The last two weeks have significantly weakened Biden’s standing within a party already lukewarm about his campaign. His recent missteps threaten to narrow an already fragile path to reelection against a revitalized Trump, who held a fiery rally in Florida on Tuesday, nine days before he’s set to accept the Republican nomination.

Deep unease over Biden’s prospects permeated through Democratic senators and representatives in Washington on Tuesday, with venting sessions taking place behind closed doors. Despite growing calls for him to step aside, Biden managed to maintain his grip on the nomination with support from Senate and House leaders, albeit lukewarm.

In a letter to lawmakers on Monday, Biden reaffirmed his commitment to the race: “I am firmly committed to staying in this race.” This, coupled with the primary voters’ decisions, left his critics with little room to maneuver. Pelosi, however, hinted that the matter was still open. “Just hold off, whatever you’re thinking, either tell somebody privately but you don’t have to put that out on the table until we see how we go this week,” she advised Democrats. After her comments circulated widely, a spokesperson clarified that Pelosi “fully supports whatever President Biden decides to do.”

Rep. Ritchie Torres provided a stark warning to CNN about the potential impact on other races if Biden continues his bid for reelection. “If we are going on a political suicide mission, then we should at least be honest about it,” he said, adding, “There must be a serious reckoning with the down-ballot effect of whomever we nominate.”

Biden faces another critical test on Thursday with a solo press conference at the end of the NATO summit. Any mistakes or confusion could further undermine Democratic support.

The crisis surrounding Biden’s campaign reflects the broader turmoil within the Democratic Party, which is grappling with concerns about his viability, strength, and mental capacity less than four months from Election Day. There is scant evidence that Biden is ready to engage in intensive campaign activities, which many Democrats believe are essential for a successful run. Some Democrats doubt his chances of winning in November, while the urgency of the situation is magnified by Trump’s strong political position.

Tuesday was seen as a crucial day for Biden, as it marked the first time lawmakers had gathered en masse since the debate and the July Fourth recess. Despite an increase in calls for him to step aside, Biden managed to stabilize his campaign’s crisis.

“We do want to turn the page. We want to get to the other side of this,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters, though the president’s political challenges as the oldest-ever president remain significant.

Biden delivered one of his strongest recent public appearances at the NATO summit in Washington on Tuesday, even as the effects of aging were evident in his speech and movements. “Remember, the biggest cost and the greatest risk will be if Russia wins in Ukraine. We cannot let that happen,” he said, praising NATO as “the single greatest, most effective defense alliance in the history of the world.”

The summit was intended to highlight Biden’s leadership as a key figure in the West since World War II and to contrast him with Trump, who often criticized America’s European allies. Instead, it has become a test of Biden’s mental acuity.

White House officials told CNN’s Kayla Tausche that Biden’s speech went according to plan and hoped it would allow him to resume “business as usual.” However, every public appearance by the president now feels like an excruciating wait for potential gaffes, awkward moments, or freezes. His debate performance left an unflattering impression on 50 million viewers, and it’s a low bar for a president to deliver a short, scripted speech without issues.

The situation is unlikely to improve over the next four months due to the inherent challenges of Biden’s matchup with Trump and his decision to run for a term that would end when he is 86.

Nevertheless, it’s too early to count Biden out. Voters decide elections, not lawmakers or media commentary. Biden has repeatedly defied predictions of his political demise and has shown resilience despite personal and political setbacks. Trump, a convicted criminal, has a knack for alienating moderate, suburban, and swing voters with his extreme rhetoric and threats.

The Republican National Convention in Milwaukee next week, which will likely turn into a MAGA festival, is seen by the Biden camp as an opportunity to highlight the contrast with Trump, which Biden’s debate performance had temporarily obscured.

Most post-debate national polls suggest Biden lost a couple of points to Trump, making an already close race tighter. However, there is little quality polling in swing states since the debate. Biden was generally trailing Trump in many battlegrounds before the debate and needed to reset the race, but instead, he created negative momentum.

Biden’s failure to frame a sharp contrast with Trump on key issues like abortion, taxes, character, and Trump’s threat to democracy and US values has fueled Democratic despair.

This disappointment was evident as lawmakers entered their meetings on Tuesday, with many avoiding reporters afterward. A source told CNN’s Bash that Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana joined Bennet in expressing doubts about Biden’s chances.

“It’s true that I said that,” Bennet told CNN. “Donald Trump is on track, I think, to win this election and maybe win it by a landslide and take with him the Senate and the House.”

Sen. Angus King, an independent from Maine who caucuses with Democrats, said senators believe Biden must engage in unscripted situations to address voters’ questions. Asked about the risks of Biden stumbling, King replied: “It seems to me that’s a risk they have to take. If he’s OK, it shouldn’t be a problem.”

Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman defended Biden. “We concluded that Joe Biden is old; we found out, and the polling came back that he’s old,” Fetterman told CNN. “But we also agreed that he’s our guy.”

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, asked about Biden, responded tersely, “I’m with Joe,” indicating his support.

Rep. Jerrold Nadler, who had privately doubted Biden’s candidacy, said he now supports him, though his decision seemed driven by the difficulty of replacing Biden rather than confidence in his strength. “I’m not resigned to it. He made very clear he’s going to run. He’s got an excellent record, one of the most excellent presidents of the last century. Trump would be an absolute disaster for democracy; so, I’m enthusiastically supporting Biden,” Nadler said.

The Congressional Black Caucus, a powerful House Democratic Caucus faction, has also bolstered Biden’s support. Many CBC members are in safe districts and may face less pressure than frontline Democrats critical of Biden’s debate performance. Texas Rep. Marc Veasey voiced concerns for vulnerable colleagues, criticizing Biden’s post-debate efforts. “Whatever I have seen so far hasn’t shown me that that’s going to be enough to get there. I just don’t think that dog is gonna hunt,” Veasey told CNN. “I think that he has a long way to go and I think there are stronger candidates that would be more likely to beat Trump at this point, but if he says that he is going to stay in, (then) he’s the nominee.”

Rep. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey praised Biden’s presidency but became the seventh House Democrat to call for him to step aside. “Because I know President Biden cares deeply about the future of our country, I am asking that he declare that he won’t run for reelection and will help lead us through a process toward a new nominee.”

Some Democratic leaders sought to rally their members by attacking Trump. “Every single member of the House Democratic Caucus is clear-eyed about what the stakes of this election are,” said Rep. Pete Aguilar, the caucus chairman. “Donald Trump cannot be allowed near the Oval Office and his extremist allies must never be allowed to pass a national abortion ban or their dangerous Project 2025, which would erode our democracy and enable Trump’s worst impulses,” the California Democrat said. His forceful presentation underscored the missed opportunities Biden had in the debate.

In Las Vegas, Vice President Kamala Harris attacked Trump with the vigor of a former prosecutor. “I will say that someone who vilifies immigrants, who promotes xenophobia, someone who stokes hate should never again have the chance to stand behind a microphone and the seal of the President of the United States,” Harris said.

For Democrats who believe Harris would be a stronger nominee, her dynamic delivery highlighted an alternative path that Biden has closed off.

Vice President Kamala Harris has captured the attention of Republican donors, holds significant name recognition, and is gaining support from influential Democratic Party figures. Should President Joe Biden step aside from the 2024 election, Harris would be the natural successor, according to top Democrats. This raises a crucial question: Does Harris have a better chance than Biden of defeating Donald Trump? Despite Biden’s insistence on staying in the race, discussions about Harris’s potential candidacy are intensifying.

If Harris were to become the party’s nominee and win the November 5 election, she would be the first woman president of the United States, and the first African American and Asian individual to serve as vice president. Her tenure in the White House over the past three and a half years has been marked by a slow start, significant staff turnover, and challenging early assignments, such as addressing Central American migration, which did not yield major successes.

As recently as last year, concerns within the White House and Biden’s campaign team regarding Harris’s potential liability to the campaign were prevalent. However, her recent efforts on abortion rights and engagement with young voters have significantly altered this perception among Democratic officials.

The Biden-Harris campaign expressed, “She is proud to be his running mate and looks forward to serving at his side for four more years.” Recent polls indicate that Harris might have an edge over Biden in a potential matchup against Trump. A CNN poll released on July 2 showed Trump leading Biden by six percentage points (49% to 43%), while Harris trailed Trump by a narrower margin of 47% to 45%, within the margin of error. The poll also revealed that independents favor Harris over Trump (43% to 40%) and that moderate voters prefer her 51% to 39%.

Another poll by Reuters/Ipsos following a debate between Trump and a struggling Biden showed Harris and Trump nearly tied, with 42% supporting Harris and 43% backing Trump. Among possible alternatives to Biden, only former First Lady Michelle Obama, who has shown no interest in running, polled higher. Internal polling from the Biden campaign indicated that Harris has similar odds as Biden of beating Trump, with 45% of voters supporting her compared to 48% for Trump.

Several influential Democrats have signaled their support for Harris as the best option if Biden steps aside. These include U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn, a key figure in Biden’s 2020 victory; Rep. Gregory Meeks, a senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus; and Summer Lee, a House Democrat from Pennsylvania. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has also reportedly indicated support for Harris in private discussions.

Republican donors are taking Harris seriously, with some preferring Trump to face Biden rather than her. Pauline Lee, a Trump fundraiser in Nevada, stated, “I would prefer Biden to stay in place,” and criticized Biden as “incompetent.” Wall Street, a crucial Democratic fundraising hub, is also beginning to show a preference for Harris. Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group, remarked, “Biden is already behind Trump, and is unlikely to overcome that gap given where his campaign is currently. Having VP Harris likely improves Democrats’ odds of taking the White House.”

However, a majority of Americans view Harris negatively, similar to their perceptions of Biden and Trump. Polling data from Five Thirty Eight shows 37.1% of voters approve of Harris while 49.6% disapprove, compared to Biden’s 36.9% approval and 57.1% disapproval, and Trump’s 38.6% approval and 53.6% disapproval.

Since the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to repeal the constitutional right to abortion, Harris has become the administration’s leading voice on reproductive rights. This issue is central to the Democrats’ strategy for the 2024 election. Harris could invigorate key Democratic-leaning groups whose enthusiasm for Biden has waned, including Black voters, young voters, and those dissatisfied with Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Tim Ryan, a former Democratic Congressman from Ohio, wrote, “She would energize the Black, brown, and Asian Pacific members of our coalition…she would immediately pull the dispirited youth of our country back into the fold.”

Harris’s stance on Israel is aligned with Biden’s, though she was the first senior U.S. leader to call for a ceasefire in March. Abbas Alawieh of the “Uncommitted” movement, which withheld votes for Biden over his support for Israel, stated, “Simply swapping out the candidate does not address the central concern.”

If Biden steps aside, other Democrats might compete for the nomination. However, choosing another candidate over Harris could alienate Black voters, crucial to Biden’s 2020 victory. Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of BlackPAC, asserted, “There is no alternative besides Kamala Harris…Jump over the Black woman, the vice president, and I don’t think the Democratic Party actually recovers.”

Harris may struggle to win over moderate Democrats and independent voters who favor Biden’s centrist policies. Dmitri Mehlhorn, adviser to LinkedIn co-founder and Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman, noted, “Her greatest weakness is that her public brand has been associated with the far-left wing of the Democratic Party…and the left wing cannot win a national election.”

Harris would inherit Biden’s campaign infrastructure and funds, a crucial advantage with only four months until election day. However, Democratic strategists emphasize the need to raise hundreds of millions more dollars. A Democratic National Committee source remarked, “I can tell you we have a really tough time raising money for her.”

During the 2020 presidential race, Harris lagged behind Biden in fundraising, dropping out in December 2019 after reporting $39.3 million in total contributions compared to Biden’s $60.9 million. However, Biden’s campaign raised a record $48 million in 24 hours after naming Harris as his running mate.

Some Democrats believe Harris’s prosecutorial background could shine in a debate against Trump. Mehlhorn commented, “She is incredibly focused and forceful and smart, and if she prosecutes the case against the criminality of Donald Trump, she will rip him apart.”

Republican attacks on Harris are increasing as she is considered a possible replacement for Biden. Conservative media are reviving criticism from the 2020 race, including claims that she laughs too much and is untested and unqualified. The New York Post, owned by News Corp, ran a column titled “America may soon be subjected to the country’s first DEI president: Kamala Harris,” criticizing her rise due to the party’s diversity initiatives.

Kelly Dittmar, a political science professor at Rutgers University, said, “Unfortunately, the reliance on both racist and sexist attacks and tropes against women running for office is historically common and persists to this day.”

In the wake of Joe Biden’s debate performance, many Democratic insiders are now discussing who Kamala Harris might choose as her running mate. A growing number of party officials, operatives, and donors are doubtful that Biden’s campaign can recover, based on CNN’s interviews with two dozen Democratic politicians and operatives.

Biden often says to compare him to the alternative, not the almighty, which is what more Democrats are doing with Harris. Harris and her team have largely ignored the influx of calls and texts, maintaining a firm stance on their support for Biden. However, Harris did make some adjustments, like joining Biden for the Fourth of July picnic and fireworks, a first for her.

Despite her support, the Democratic landscape is shifting around Harris, with former President Donald Trump’s campaign already targeting her. Officials have begun advising donors to back Harris, arguing that a unified party support is essential. Some plans are in motion to convince Biden to endorse Harris immediately, release his Democratic delegates, and request their support for her. This strategy aims to prevent a contentious primary fight.

If the race opens, Democrats hope Harris’ running mate will be a prominent governor. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear are frequently mentioned, along with Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker, and Minnesota’s Tim Walz. However, this could complicate matters by not allowing Harris to select her own running mate, a privilege typically given to presidential nominees.

A Democratic senator compared the situation to a football game, with Biden as a star quarterback who might need to be replaced by his backup, Harris. “The backup knows our team, the backup knows the plays, the backup has played in the NFL,” the senator said, highlighting Harris’ familiarity with the political landscape.

Some Democrats fear losing their seats with Harris at the top of the ticket, but others have changed their views, preferring her over Biden. The leader of one major Democratic group said, “Are you kidding?” when asked about preferring Harris, emphasizing that while Biden is in bad shape, Harris could unify the party if she becomes the nominee.

A document titled “Unburdened by What Has Been: The Case for Kamala,” written by senior Democratic operatives, is circulating among donors and coalition groups. It argues that Harris is the only viable candidate to win, stating, “Kamala Harris has the strongest claim to Democratic legitimacy. She is the only candidate who can take the reins right now… She has significant and widely underplayed electoral advantages. She can win.”

Rep. Nanette Barragán, who supported Harris in 2019, noted the shift in conversations about Harris. “It’s nice to see that people are finally recognizing the value of her work and what she brings to the partnership,” she said.

Biden’s sparse public schedule post-debate has increased doubts about him and bolstered Harris’ case. Mini Timmaraju, president of Reproductive Freedom for All, said Harris already has more credibility than Biden on key issues like abortion rights, and emphasized, “You can’t win this election without Kamala.”

Harris loyalists are frustrated by discussions of Biden replacements not centering on her and angered by donors questioning her chances. Recent polls showing a tight race between her and Trump have only heightened their frustrations. Ezra Levin, co-founder of Indivisible, emphasized the need for voters to have confidence in Harris, stating, “It’s foolish and counterproductive to defend Biden by tearing down Harris.”

The Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) has mostly supported Biden, but members indicate they would quickly back Harris if Biden steps aside. Rep. Gregory Meeks said, “I actually don’t think that anybody else other than her would beat Trump because of what you’d lose in the base,” stressing the importance of Black voter turnout.

Harris has contemplated a Trump challenge before. In 2018, her aides asked how she’d handle a town hall debate with Trump. Her response: “Why are you being so weird?” This showcases her readiness to confront Trump head-on.

Despite her reputation for verbal gaffes, Harris has been on an upswing with voters. After Biden’s debate, she spontaneously told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that a bad 90 minutes shouldn’t overshadow Biden’s three and a half years as president. This line was so effective that it was repeated by Jill Biden and multiple campaign aides.

Harris has focused on Trump for months, planning to target his running mate by highlighting their alignment with Trump’s extremist agenda. Brian Fallon, Harris’ campaign communications director, reaffirmed, “The president is and will remain our party’s nominee, and Vice President Harris is proud to be his running mate and looks forward to serving at his side for four more years.”

The running mate conversation often includes Cooper and Beshear, both former state attorneys general with bipartisan support. Cooper has a long-standing relationship with Harris, calling her “whip smart” and stating, “I think she’s ready to do this job.” Beshear, popular in Kentucky and nationally recognized for his communication skills, has also been invited to speak at Democratic events across the country.

The Democratic party is grappling with Biden’s faltering campaign and looking to Harris as a potential successor. While the transition is fraught with challenges and uncertainties, many believe that Harris, with the right support, can lead the party to victory.

Vice President Kamala Harris stands as the leading alternative to replace President Joe Biden if he opts out of his reelection campaign, as per insights from seven senior sources associated with the Biden campaign, the White House, and the Democratic National Committee. These sources reveal ongoing discussions about potential replacements.

Biden’s recent faltering and often incoherent debate performance against Republican Donald Trump has sparked widespread panic within the Democratic party. Concerns about his fitness for a second term have led to calls for the resignation of top aides.

While some influential Democrats have proposed other alternatives to Biden, such as popular cabinet members and Democratic governors like California’s Gavin Newsom, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, and Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, the sources believe bypassing Harris would be nearly impossible. They suggest that Harris, with the highest name recognition and polling among potential candidates, would naturally inherit the Biden campaign’s funds and infrastructure if nominated.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates Harris is trailing Trump by just one percentage point (42% to 43%), which falls within the poll’s margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, demonstrating a performance on par with Biden’s. Furthermore, Harris has been thoroughly vetted for national office and has withstood intense scrutiny from Republicans. Notably, U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn, a key figure in Biden’s 2020 victory, expressed his support for Harris as the Democratic nominee if Biden steps aside.

Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist from California who worked on Hillary Clinton’s campaigns in 2008 and 2016, stated, “It’s pretty near impossible to win the nomination over the vice president.” He emphasizes Harris’s entrenched position within the party.

On July 2, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre dismissed concerns, attributing Biden’s debate performance to a “bad night” and reaffirming his commitment to running for reelection. The Biden campaign referred questions about the scenario to Harris’s team, which firmly stated, “Vice President Harris looks forward to serving a second term with President Joe Biden.”

Biden’s campaign has secured 3,894 delegates from state primaries, with only a few dozen “uncommitted” delegates left. These delegates are expected to formally nominate Biden later this month during a virtual meeting before the Democratic National Convention in August. Trujillo reiterated Harris’s substantial support within the party, saying, “All of the delegates are not just Joe Biden delegates, they are Kamala Harris delegates,” and she would have significant backing from all states.

Donna Brazile, former interim chair of the Democratic National Committee and a key figure in the upcoming Democratic National Convention, stated that Harris is the immediate successor if Biden steps down. Brazile emphasized the structured process, noting, “People may have dreams of another superhero but there is a process and the last time I checked it’s a Biden-Harris ticket, she’s number two on the ticket,” while reaffirming Biden’s status as the Democratic nominee.

Overlooking Harris, the first Black and female vice president, could trigger backlash from Black and female voters, who are crucial for any Democratic victory, according to several Democratic strategists.

However, some influential Democrats remain skeptical of Harris’s chances against Trump. Four sources mentioned that Harris has been largely sidelined in post-debate speculations due to doubts about her electability. The U.S. has never elected a female president, and Harris’s role as vice president has limited her ability to distinguish herself. As recently as last year, concerns within the White House and the Biden campaign labeled her a potential liability.

Despite finding her footing on abortion rights, Harris’s approval ratings have not significantly improved, lingering below 40%. Polls indicate that she and Biden have comparable odds of defeating Trump. Harris has also faced continuous attacks from Republicans and conservative media, often viewed by her allies as sexist and racist.

Three Democratic donors, who previously advocated for Biden’s withdrawal, conceded this week that bypassing Harris is “impossible.” These donors had been considering Whitmer and Newsom as potential alternatives until recently. One donor remarked, “There is a real conversation in the Democratic party about leadership right now, but fair to say, and I’m not thrilled about this… it will be impossible to ignore Kamala.”

Another donor added, “She’s nobody’s choice, but yeah, nearly impossible.”

Despite growing calls for Biden to step aside, his reelection campaign remains firm, buoyed by his improved performance in a scripted speech in North Carolina. Stephanie Cutter, former deputy campaign manager for Barack Obama and current producer of the Democratic National Convention, stated unequivocally, “President Biden is the nominee and he’s going to remain the nominee.” She warned against fostering intra-party conflict, cautioning, “For those who are looking for some sort of interparty fight, be careful what you wish for because that would ensure a Trump victory.”

Joe Biden faced challenges during his debate with Donald Trump on Thursday night, raising questions about how his vice president, Kamala Harris, would handle a debate against the former president.

The two leaders met in Atlanta for their first face-off in nearly four years, with Biden’s age being a significant concern. At 81, he is the oldest president in U.S. history. During the debate, Biden struggled, sounding hoarse and losing his train of thought at one point. These issues intensified discussions among Democrats about whether he should continue as the party’s nominee.

With four months until Election Day, there’s no definitive front-runner to replace Biden. However, Vice President Kamala Harris is a potential candidate. At 59, she is significantly younger than both Biden and Trump, who is three years younger than Biden. If Biden were to step down, Harris would automatically assume the presidency, making her a logical choice for a potential switch in the Biden-Harris campaign.

Polls suggest Harris faces a tougher challenge against Trump than Biden. According to RealClearPolling averages, Trump leads Harris by 6.6 percentage points, with 49.3 percent support compared to her 42.7 percent. In contrast, Trump is ahead of Biden by only 1.5 points, with 46.6 percent to Biden’s 45.1 percent.

A Politico and Morning Consult poll conducted earlier this month showed that only a third of voters believe Harris would win the election if she became the Democratic nominee. Additionally, only 60 percent of Democrats think she would succeed.

Harris has faced criticism for not having a more prominent role in the Biden administration. Less than a year into Biden’s term, the White House issued a statement to counter claims that Harris had not met expectations. In November 2021, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, “For anyone who needs to hear it. @VP is not only a vital partner to @POTUS but a bold leader who has taken on key, important challenges facing the country—from voting rights to addressing root causes of migration to expanding broadband.”

Appointed by Biden to handle the border crisis, Harris has been criticized for the response to the influx of migrants since Biden took office. Immigration remains a top concern for voters, more than three years after Harris was named Biden’s border czar.

Harris’ reputation has struggled due to early missteps, and her approval rating reflects this. FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages indicate that less than 40 percent of Americans approve of her performance as vice president, with nearly half disapproving. Biden and Trump’s approval ratings are similarly low, with Biden’s approval around 38 percent and 56 percent disapproving. Trump has a 42 percent favorable opinion, while about 53 percent view him unfavorably.

Despite these challenges, Harris remains supportive of Biden’s candidacy. After the debate, she defended Biden in an interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper, acknowledging his “slow start” but praising his “strong finish” in the 90-minute event. Harris emphasized, “What we saw tonight was the president making a very clear contrast with Donald Trump on all the issues that matter to the American people.”

When Cooper suggested that Biden’s debate performance was disappointing, Harris responded assertively, saying, “I’m not going to spend all night with you talking about the last 90 minutes when I’ve been watching the last three and a half years of performance.”

President Joe Biden was supposed to put the nation’s mind at ease over his physical and mental capacity with his debate with Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee on Thursday night. They hoped that President Biden, 81, could convince the world that his age was nothing to worry about and that he could counter Donald Trump’s wild accusations and relentless falsehoods with confidence.

But from the onset of the debate, Biden struggled even to talk, mostly summoning a weak, raspy voice. Biden’s voice was hoarse and halting. His answers were often unclear, and he struggled to finish his thoughts. In the opening minutes, he repeatedly tripped over his words, misspoke and lost his train of thought.

Biden produced the weakest performance since John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon started the tradition of televised debates in 1960 — then, as on Thursday, in a television studio with no audience.

Rather than dispel concerns about his age, his garbled debate performance reinforced his frailties and sent shudders of anxiety through Democrats who believe former President Trump is poised to benefit in November. Thursday’s presidential debate saw a raspy and sometimes halting President Joe Biden struggling to confront Donald Trump on the CNN stage, spurring panic from his party.

Biden’s faltering debate performance has worried Democrats openly discussing for the need to have the president step aside for a younger candidate while elated Republicans gloat over his stumbles. “He’s not equipped to be president,” Trump said during the debate.

If the debate was the president’s best chance to turn around a tight race with Trump, which has him in deep peril of losing reelection, it was a failure.

In a hoarse voice that gained volume as the 90 minutes wore on, Biden attempted to draw substantive contrasts with his challenger, but his meandering points and blank expressions handed Trump ammunition to reprise his campaign theme that Biden is a “disaster” who is “destroying” the country.

The president, in turn, attacked Trump’s policies, morals, veracity and motives. He referred to his predecessor as “this guy,” said “he’s lying,” called Trump “a loser” and “a sucker” and “a convicted felon.” Biden said Trump “slept with a porn star,” referring to Stormy Daniels, the woman at the center of the former president’s New York conviction for falsifying hush money payments