Author: Staff Reporter

At the Democratic National Convention this week, party members confidently predicted that Kamala Harris would emerge victorious against Donald Trump. They hailed her as a historic leader, a beacon of hope, and referred to her as “the president of joy.” Amid this overwhelming optimism, however, former First Lady Michelle Obama issued a sobering caution: “No matter how good we feel tonight or tomorrow or the next day, this is going to be an uphill battle.” Her warning was soon overshadowed by the excitement of the 17,000 attendees at the convention in Chicago, but it underscored a pressing reality for Harris: the real challenge is only beginning.

More than a month after President Joe Biden endorsed her, Harris has yet to present detailed plans on how she would tackle the nation’s most significant issues, such as immigration, crime, and climate change. She has not yet sat down for a comprehensive media interview to address tough questions about her past policy shifts, leadership style, and the scrutiny surrounding her race and gender as a historic candidate. As John Anzalone, a pollster for the last three Democratic presidential nominees, pointed out, “We can’t put our heads in the sand. She’s a Black woman. The bar is going to be higher for everything. And guess what? That means, even mistakes. Mistakes are going to be magnified.”

Harris’ supporters acknowledge that she remains largely undefined to many voters, having spent much of the past four years in Biden’s shadow. This relative anonymity presents both opportunities and risks. David Axelrod, a former chief strategist for President Barack Obama, noted, “The bad thing about vice presidents is that nobody knows who you are. The good thing about vice presidents is nobody knows who you are.”

With just over two weeks to prepare for her only scheduled presidential debate against Trump on September 10, which could significantly influence the race’s trajectory, Harris’ team feels no urgency to release a comprehensive policy platform or engage in media interviews that might disrupt the positive momentum her campaign has generated. So far, her advisers have positioned her policy agenda as an extension of Biden’s first-term accomplishments, especially in economic matters, though some specifics may differ.

For instance, Harris has abandoned her opposition to fracking and her previous support for Medicare for All, key positions in her 2019 presidential run. Her aides argue that while her values remain consistent, she has adopted more centrist policies out of practicality. “She’s going to work to support and lead pragmatic common sense policies that are going to directly relate to improving the lives of Americans,” said Brian Nelson, a senior campaign policy adviser.

Meanwhile, Harris’ allies anticipate that Trump will eventually settle on an effective line of attack against her. In recent days, he has employed a broad-based strategy, targeting her racial identity, demeanor, record as vice president, and perceived liberalism. “He’ll figure out how to get a message and land a political punch,” said Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. “What you’ve seen with her is an ability to absorb the criticism and just keep going. And that is a really, really important political trait.”

However, some acknowledge that as Election Day approaches, the scrutiny on Harris will intensify. Sarah Longwell, a leader of Republican Voters Against Trump, commented, “People ask this question: Will people vote for a Black woman? And I actually think that’s always the wrong question. I think the question is, Will they vote for Kamala Harris, with her particular set of both skills and baggage? The biggest problem for Kamala Harris is that people view her as too progressive, and that’s going to hurt her with these swing voters.”

Polls indicate that public perception of Harris has shifted since Biden withdrew and she became the presumptive nominee. In a June AP-NORC poll, only 39% of Americans viewed her favorably, with 12% unsure. By August, those figures had improved to 48% favorable, with only 6% expressing uncertainty. Additionally, 27% of respondents reported a “very” favorable opinion, up from 14% in June. This rapid change suggests that public opinion could shift again as voters learn more about Harris.

This shift also suggests that Harris’ current surge might be less about her candidacy and more about Democrats’ relief over Biden stepping aside. Before he withdrew, nearly two-thirds of Democrats expressed opposition to another Biden run, with about half stating they would be dissatisfied if he were the nominee. Quentin Wathum-Ocama, president of Young Democrats of America, expressed mixed feelings of relief and excitement over Harris. “Do people know her? People are aware of her,” he said. “I can be excited, but I still want more.”

However, he may have to wait, as Harris has yet to release comprehensive policy details. Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, noted that past Democratic efforts to provide detailed policy plans did not resonate with voters. “We used to do 10-point plans; they weren’t even satisfied with five-point plans,” Weingarten said. “I think that that’s not where Americans are.”

So far, Harris has provided a glimpse of her policy intentions. She has proposed federal limits on price increases for food producers and grocers, pledged to make permanent a $3,600 per child tax credit for eligible families, and introduced a new $6,000 tax credit for families with newborns. Additionally, she plans to build three million new housing units over four years and expand down payment assistance for renters. She also wants to accelerate a Biden initiative to allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices, aiming to reduce costs by 40% to 80% by 2026.

Trump’s campaign has focused on the lack of specifics in Harris’ platform and her avoidance of media interviews. At a recent rally in Asheboro, North Carolina, Jerry Zimmerman, a Trump supporter, acknowledged the challenge of defeating Harris, saying, “If they can prove that everything went fair, I’ll be cool with it. I think a lot of people will be cool with the outcome.”

With the election timeline compressed, both candidates have little time to pivot dramatically. Early voting in key states like Pennsylvania begins on September 16, with more states following shortly after. Both campaigns have already committed substantial resources to television ads, with Democrats planning to spend over $270 million compared to the Republicans’ $120 million.

Michelle Obama warned that mistakes are inevitable and urged Democrats to stay focused on defeating Trump. “The minute something goes wrong, the minute a lie takes hold, folks, we cannot start wringing our hands,” she said. “We cannot get a Goldilocks complex about whether everything is just right. And we cannot indulge our anxieties about whether this country will elect someone like Kamala, instead of doing everything we can to get someone like Kamala elected.”

Democrats are placing their bets on the belief that American voters are eager to move beyond the divisive era shaped by former President Donald Trump. At the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago, the party showcased a strategy centered on “joy,” with Vice President Kamala Harris being positioned as the candidate to lead the nation into a more hopeful future.

Former President Bill Clinton emphasized this theme by declaring that Harris brings “sheer joy” to the 2024 presidential race. Meanwhile, Oprah Winfrey encouraged the nation to “choose joy.” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg further contrasted Trump’s “darkness” with the more uplifting political approach offered by Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, stating, “it just feels better to be part of.”

This messaging shift highlights how quickly the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race have changed since President Joe Biden exited the race last month. While Biden’s campaign was heavily focused on the dangers Trump posed to democracy, Harris has taken those concerns and wrapped them in a more forward-looking narrative centered on themes of freedom and joy. The convention was designed to reflect this new tone, complete with a party-like atmosphere.

The evening’s entertainment featured performances by John Legend, drummer Sheila E., and Stevie Wonder, who delivered a rousing rendition of “Higher Ground.” The celebratory mood extended to the appearance of alumni from Mankato West High School’s football team, which had previously won a state championship under Walz’s guidance as an assistant coach. They appeared on stage in their old jerseys as a pep band played the school’s fight song. “Thank you for bringing the joy to this fight,” Walz told the audience.

Six Key Moments from the DNC’s Third Night

1. Tim Walz, the ‘Happy Warrior,’ Makes His Case

Governor Tim Walz, relatively new to the national stage, used his moment to introduce himself as more than just a politician. Before becoming Harris’s running mate, Walz had never delivered a speech to a national audience, let alone used a teleprompter. Yet, instead of leaning on his political credentials as a two-term governor and former congressman, he presented himself as a high school teacher, football coach, hunter, and neighbor.

Walz used his speech to argue that Democrats are the true champions of freedom. “In Minnesota, we respect our neighbors and the choices they make. Even if we wouldn’t make the same choices ourselves, we’ve got a golden rule: Mind your own damn business,” Walz said. He linked this philosophy to Harris’s policy positions on health care, abortion rights, and homeownership, speaking in tones reminiscent of the late Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone.

“When we Democrats talk about freedom, we mean the freedom to make a better life for yourself and the people you love,” he said. “Freedom to make your own health care decisions. And yeah, your kids’ freedom to go to school without worrying about being shot dead in the hall.”

The governor’s heartfelt address also touched on personal struggles, particularly the fertility challenges he and his wife, Gwen, faced. He emotionally addressed his family, saying, “Hope, Gus, and Gwen, you are my entire world, and I love you.” His son Gus stood up with tears in his eyes, applauding his father.

Walz concluded his speech with a call to action, urging Democrats to give their all in the remaining 76 days of the campaign, saying, “We’re gonna leave it on the field.” He exited the stage to Neil Young’s “Rockin’ in the Free World,” a song that Harris’s campaign received special permission to use, marking a sharp contrast to Young’s previous legal battle to prevent Trump from using it.

2. Oprah Winfrey Ties Harris to a Legacy of Progress

Oprah Winfrey took the stage to draw a historical connection between Harris and previous generations of African American trailblazers, portraying the vice president as representing “the best of America.” Winfrey recounted the story of Tessie Prevost, who passed away last month, and three other Black girls who, at the age of six, bravely began desegregating New Orleans elementary schools in 1960.

Winfrey noted that the “New Orleans Four” paved the way for Harris, who nine years later became part of the second class to integrate public schools in Berkeley, California. Now, Winfrey declared, Harris is on the cusp of making history.

“Soon and very soon, we’re going to be teaching our daughters and sons about how this child of an Indian mother and a Jamaican father, two idealistic and energetic immigrants… grew up to become the 47th president of the United States,” Winfrey said, to a roaring crowd chanting “U-S-A.” She also addressed Ohio Senator JD Vance’s derogatory remarks about childless women, making a powerful statement about the shared humanity of all Americans.

3. Bill Clinton’s Stark Choice: ‘For the People’ or ‘Me, Myself, and I’

Former President Bill Clinton framed the election as a choice between Harris, who is “for the people,” and Trump, who he described as being solely about “me, myself, and I.” Clinton, whose influence within the party has diminished over the years, still holds a unique appeal to White working-class voters, making his appearances at conventions particularly noteworthy.

Clinton discussed Harris’s policies on housing, health care, and job growth, while also painting Trump as a self-centered figure. He quipped, “So the next time you hear him, don’t count the lies. Count the I’s.” This line drew attention to Trump’s focus on his grievances, vendettas, and conspiracy theories.

4. A Generational Shift in the Democratic Party

The convention in Chicago also symbolized a generational shift within the Democratic Party. While the primary goal was to build momentum for Harris, the event also highlighted the passing of the torch from seasoned figures like Biden, Clinton, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to newer leaders.

Bill Clinton, aware of his own mortality, reminded the crowd of his long history with the Democratic National Convention and urged voters to support Harris, saying, “If you vote for this team… you’ll be proud of it for the rest of your life. Your children will be proud of it. Your grandchildren will be proud of it.”

5. The Struggles of Hostage Families

In a poignant moment, Rachel Goldberg-Polin, mother of a hostage taken by Hamas, expressed the agony that she and her husband, Jon Polin, have endured. She thanked the Biden-Harris administration for their support, while also acknowledging the suffering on all sides of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

6. Defending Democracy: Trump Betrayed Us

Even as Harris reframed the Democratic message, the convention retained a strong focus on defending democracy. Aquilino Gonell, a former U.S. Capitol Police sergeant, accused Trump of betraying the officers who defended the Capitol on January 6, 2021. His emotional testimony was a reminder of the stakes in the upcoming election, underscoring the enduring relevance of the fight to preserve democratic values.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 election campaign has garnered significant financial support, amassing an unprecedented $500 million since she officially became the Democratic presidential candidate, according to sources familiar with the matter. This substantial fundraising achievement reflects the strong enthusiasm among donors as the November 5 election approaches.

Four individuals closely involved with the fundraising efforts disclosed to Reuters that Harris’s campaign had successfully accumulated this considerable sum in the four weeks following her entry into the race on July 21. The rapid inflow of campaign funds highlights the critical role that financial resources play in modern elections, particularly in financing advertising and voter mobilization initiatives aimed at swaying undecided voters.

Harris’s decision to enter the presidential race came after President Joe Biden stepped down from the top of the Democratic ticket, a move that reignited a wave of funding that had largely dried up following Biden’s challenging debate performance against Republican contender Donald Trump. In the initial week of her campaign, Harris raised an impressive $200 million, quickly securing the support needed to become the party’s nominee.

In total, Harris’s team raised $310 million in July alone, bringing the combined fundraising total for her and Biden, before he exited the race, to over $1 billion. This rapid accumulation of funds marks the quickest achievement of such a significant fundraising milestone in U.S. political history, according to the Harris campaign.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump’s campaign reported raising $138.7 million in July, with cash reserves amounting to $327 million. Trump’s campaign had previously outpaced Biden’s in fundraising during the second quarter of the year.

Despite the competition, enthusiasm for Harris has remained strong. Her campaign reported having $377 million in cash on hand as of July, with the momentum continuing into August. This ongoing support is evident not only from large donors but also from small-dollar contributors, as thousands of people have been attending her rallies in key swing states across the nation.

To put this fundraising success in perspective, Biden’s campaign committee raised a total of $1.04 billion during the 2020 election cycle, a figure that swelled to $1.62 billion when combined with contributions from outside groups, as reported by OpenSecrets, a watchdog organization that tracks money in politics.

At the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Harris expressed her appreciation for Biden’s leadership, while the president himself took the opportunity to highlight his record and urge voters to support Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, in the upcoming election.

Former President Barack Obama, a significant figure in Democratic fundraising, also played a role in bolstering Harris’s campaign. Obama delivered a speech at the convention on August 20, while Harris continued her efforts to energize voters in nearby Wisconsin. Obama has already participated in two major fundraisers with Biden and has offered his assistance to Harris in organizing additional fundraising events.

Throughout her campaign, Harris has consistently referred to herself as the underdog in the race against Trump, a tactic intended to prevent complacency among her supporters and maintain a high level of engagement from both her voter base and her donors.

With less than three months remaining until Election Day, Harris’s fundraising prowess and strong donor enthusiasm place her campaign in a formidable position as she continues to rally support across the country in her bid to become the next President of the United States.

The Democratic National Convention on Tuesday night was dominated by the Obamas, highlighting an extraordinary reality: the party’s two most compelling orators are married to each other. The only debate among Democrats seemed to be which of the two delivered the more impactful speech.

Former President Barack Obama aimed to elevate the conversation, drawing on former President Lincoln’s call for Americans to summon the “better angels” of their nature, hoping for a future where the nation could transcend its current turmoil. Meanwhile, former First Lady Michelle Obama delivered a more impassioned and confrontational address, directing several pointed critiques at former President Trump, albeit without frequently mentioning his name. She urged Democrats to take decisive action to prevent his reelection.

The Obamas overshadowed other speakers, including second gentleman Douglas Emhoff, who didn’t attempt to compete. Here are the five major takeaways from the evening:

Barack Obama Calls for Unity Amid Division

Twenty years ago, at the Democratic National Convention in Boston, a state senator gained national attention with a speech arguing that the differences between “blue” and “red” America were overstated, particularly by those who benefit from such division. That state senator was Barack Obama, who would be elected to the U.S. Senate later that year and to the White House—becoming the nation’s first Black president—just four years later.

On Tuesday night, Obama’s address echoed similar themes but was tempered by experience, marked by more battles, and acutely aware of the deepening divisions in the country. “We live in a time of such confusion and rancor,” Obama said, “with a culture that puts a premium on things that don’t last—money, fame, status, likes.” However, he maintained that “away from all the noise, the ties that bind us together” still endure.

Obama’s political message was that Democrats must articulate their belief in those ties to win in November. He also emphasized the importance of freedom, aligning with Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign theme. Obama defined freedom broadly, including same-sex marriage, religious freedom, and environmental rights. He also criticized Trump, mocking his “weird obsession with crowd size” and his “whining about his problems.”

Obama praised President Joe Biden as a leader who “defended democracy at a time of great danger.” Ultimately, the speech was a display of the soaring rhetoric that propelled Obama to the presidency, still thrilling his party as much as it ever did.

Michelle Obama’s Fiery Address

Michelle Obama’s speech was even more impassioned than her husband’s, targeting Trump repeatedly while refraining from naming him until later in her address. She criticized the advantages of the wealthy and privileged, making it clear that Trump was her target. “Most of us will never be afforded the grace of failing forward,” she stated, adding that not everyone has “an escalator waiting to take us to the top”—a clear reference to Trump’s famous descent down the escalator in Trump Tower in 2015 to announce his first presidential run.

The crowd at the United Center in Chicago, Michelle Obama’s hometown, erupted with applause at her pointed reference to “the affirmative action of generational wealth.” This was a jab at both Trump’s background as the son of a wealthy developer and Republican criticisms of programs designed to support marginalized communities, especially Black communities.

Obama drew parallels between herself and Harris, portraying them as two women of color from modest backgrounds who had to fight for their achievements, which in turn gave them a greater capacity for empathy. “Kamala knows, like we do, that regardless of where you come from, what you look like, who you love, how you worship, or what’s in your bank account, we all deserve the opportunity to build a decent life. All of our contributions deserve to be accepted and valued,” she said.

She also cautioned Democrats to prepare for the kind of attacks on Harris that she and her husband had previously faced. At the same time, Obama warned that the stakes in the election were too high for voters to approach it with a “Goldilocks complex about whether everything is just right.”

Harris as the People’s Champion, Trump as Self-Serving

The overarching theme of the convention was clear: Harris is a champion of the middle class, while Trump is only interested in serving himself. The convention’s purpose was not just to energize the base but also to craft a compelling campaign message. Democrats aimed to portray Harris as a forward-thinking leader dedicated to the middle class, in contrast to Trump’s self-serving nature.

Republicans, of course, reject this narrative, arguing that Democrats are too liberal for the average American. However, nearly every speech on Tuesday reinforced the central theme of Harris as a leader for the people.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) highlighted this when he spoke of working with Harris in the Senate, saying, “I saw a leader who was fearless, who stood up for middle-class families like the one she was raised in.” Whether the electorate will accept this portrayal remains to be seen, but Democrats are united in their message.

Emhoff’s Personal Touch

Second gentleman Douglas Emhoff, aware that he couldn’t match the grand rhetoric of the Obamas, opted for a more personal approach. He shared anecdotes about his early relationship with Harris, including leaving a “rambling” message on her voicemail. Emhoff’s self-deprecating humor was evident when he quipped that “my mother is the only person in the whole world who thinks Kamala is the lucky one for marrying me.”

Emhoff presented himself as an everyman, still connected to his high school friends and somewhat awed by his current position. While his speech may not have swayed many opinions, it effectively served its purpose.

Biden’s Quick Fade from the Spotlight

One of the most striking aspects of the second day of the convention was how rapidly President Biden seemed to recede from prominence. While Barack Obama praised Biden, Michelle Obama didn’t mention him at all. The party’s relief in rallying around Harris was palpable.

Biden had already left Chicago for California, a move that, while perhaps strategic, also highlighted his swift marginalization. The convention underscored the party’s shift of focus toward Harris, signaling a new chapter in Democratic leadership.

It was not the speech Joe Biden had envisioned for this year, especially under the current circumstances. However, given his experiences with tragedy and adversity, the president understands how swiftly fortunes can shift.

At the Democratic National Convention’s opening night in Chicago, Biden delivered a passionate defense of his presidency, revisiting many themes from his 2020 campaign and his more recent bid before his mid-July withdrawal following a poor debate performance.

“Like many of you, I gave my heart and soul to this nation,” Biden said towards the end of his nearly hour-long speech, which was met with enthusiastic shouts of “Thank you, Joe.”

Introduced by his daughter Ashley and his wife, Jill, Biden took the stage with visible emotion. Jill described witnessing Biden’s deep reflection as he decided to withdraw from the presidential race, and Biden dabbed at his eyes with a tissue, touched his heart, and straightened up at the lectern, smiling broadly as the crowd cheered.

His address reflected on his historical significance and also praised his vice president, whom he hopes will succeed him. “Selecting Kamala was the very first decision I made when I became our nominee and it’s the best decision I made my whole career,” Biden remarked. “She’s tough, she’s experienced, and she has enormous integrity.”

While Biden did not explicitly mention passing the torch to a new generation, the sentiment was evident. Following his remarks, Vice President Kamala Harris and her husband, Doug Emhoff, joined Biden and Jill on stage. Harris mouthed “I love you” to Biden after their embrace.

Although Biden’s focus was on Harris, acknowledging that her performance against Donald Trump in the upcoming election could shape how history and his party view him, earlier speakers paid tribute to the current president.

The evening began with a surprise appearance by Harris, who received a standing ovation as she took the stage. “Joe, thank you for your historic leadership and for your lifetime of service to our nation and for all you continue to do,” she said. “We are forever grateful to you.”

Delaware Senator Chris Coons, a close ally of Biden, also praised the president. “I’ve never known a more compassionate man than Joe Biden,” Coons said. “I’ve never known a man who has taken from his own loss and his own faith and delivered so much for the future of so many others.”

Hillary Clinton, who appeared earlier in the evening, lauded Biden for restoring “dignity, decency and competence” to the White House. She received a long ovation and highlighted that while she did not break the “highest, hardest glass ceiling” by becoming the first woman president, “on the other side of that glass ceiling is Kamala Harris taking the oath of office.”

The reception Biden received from the packed Democratic convention hall was vibrant. The Chicago Democrats had been jubilant all day, but the applause for Biden also seemed to acknowledge his reluctant decision to step aside, alongside honoring his lengthy political career that began in 1972 when he was first elected to Congress at 29.

Former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton are set to address the convention later this week. Unlike them, Biden will not have the opportunity to run for re-election. Instead, he used his speech to define and defend his legacy as a one-term president, a speech that may stand as his final address to a large American audience unless a significant national event occurs in the next five months.

At the speech’s conclusion, Biden quoted a line from the song “American Anthem.” “Let me know in my heart when my days are through, that America, America, I gave my best to you,” he said, eliciting another round of applause from the audience.

Eight years ago, Biden chose not to run for president in favor of Hillary Clinton, partly due to pressure from Obama. Four years ago, although he won the nomination, the Covid pandemic prevented him from enjoying the full Democratic convention experience with a celebratory balloon drop.

This convention marked one of Biden’s closest experiences to a traditional Democratic convention moment in the spotlight. After his speech, he departed for Air Force One and a flight to California for a holiday. His time in Chicago was brief, and despite his hopes from a few months prior, his remaining term as president will be limited to months rather than years.

With just three months remaining until the 2024 election, thousands of individuals have convened in Chicago for the Democratic National Convention (DNC). This event, rooted in tradition since the 1830s, marks a significant moment for the Democratic Party, as delegates gather to solidify their platform and energize their base.

The convention’s origins can be traced back to the 1830s when Democratic delegates supporting President Andrew Jackson assembled in Baltimore to nominate him for a second term. Over time, this gathering has evolved into a major event, filled with speeches, celebrity appearances, and political strategy.

This year’s convention, taking place at the United Center Arena in Chicago, began on Monday, August 19, and will continue through Thursday, August 22. While the event will uphold many longstanding traditions, it comes with some notable changes. The most significant is that the party has already officially nominated Vice-President Kamala Harris through a virtual roll call, following President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race.

As a result, the convention’s focus has shifted to speeches from key Democratic figures and the finalization of the party’s platform. The platform, which has already been drafted, addresses a wide array of issues, such as reducing inflation, combating climate change, and curbing gun violence. The draft also contrasts the Democratic Party’s positions with those outlined in Project 2025, a conservative blueprint developed by the Heritage Foundation for a potential second Trump administration. Although Trump has distanced himself from the project, several of his allies were involved in its creation.

Throughout the week, the convention will feature speeches from a range of prominent Democrats. On Tuesday, former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama are expected to deliver remarks. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, and Illinois Senator Tammy Duckworth are also slated to speak. Other notable speakers include Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, Mesa, Arizona Mayor John Giles, and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, the husband of Kamala Harris.

Wednesday’s lineup is expected to feature former President Bill Clinton and former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, among others. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Harris’s running mate, will deliver the prime-time speech on Wednesday night after his official nomination. However, the most significant moment of the convention will occur on Thursday when Vice-President Harris takes the stage to formally accept the presidential nomination and deliver her speech, which will be the culmination of the event. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will also make an appearance during the week.

Already, several notable figures have addressed the convention. President Joe Biden, who was the headline speaker on Monday, delivered an emotional speech defending his presidency. Introduced by his wife Jill and daughter Ashley, Biden stated, “America, I gave my best to you.” The same evening, 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton praised Biden and expressed hope that Kamala Harris could finally shatter the “highest, hardest glass ceiling” by becoming the first female president. Other speakers on Monday included progressive lawmaker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, individuals affected by abortion bans in Republican-led states, and representatives from the labor movement, including United Auto Workers head Shawn Fain.

The convention is expected to draw around 50,000 attendees, including thousands of delegates chosen by state Democratic parties and super delegates, who are significant elected officials and members of the Democratic Party. The media presence will also be substantial, with thousands of members of the press covering the event.

In addition to the political figures, the convention will feature appearances from various celebrities. In previous years, actors such as Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Eva Longoria, Elizabeth Banks, and America Ferrera have attended the DNC. This year, rumors have circulated about potential appearances by mega-stars Beyoncé and Taylor Swift, although neither has confirmed their attendance.

While the convention itself is a highly orchestrated event, it is not without controversy. Demonstrations have been organized outside the DNC venue, primarily opposing U.S. support for Israel’s war in Gaza. On Monday, thousands of protesters marched, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to U.S. support for Israel. Although the protest was mostly peaceful, several arrests were made when some demonstrators breached a security fence. The turnout was reportedly lower than expected, falling short of the 15,000 participants claimed by organizers.

During his speech on Monday, President Biden acknowledged the protesters, stating, “The activists have a point,” and added, “A lot of innocent people are being killed, on both sides.”

For those unable to attend the convention in person, there are multiple ways to follow the coverage. Members of the public can only attend by volunteering, but national media outlets are providing extensive coverage. The convention itself is offering live streams on social media platforms, ensuring that the public can stay informed. BBC News is among the media organizations providing in-depth coverage, with special reporting and analysis available on their website and app, as well as on their live-stream. The BBC News Channel is also airing special coverage each night from 20:00 ET (01:00 BST). Additionally, special episodes of The Global Story and Americast podcasts can be found on BBC Sounds and other podcast platforms.

As the 2024 election draws nearer, the Democratic National Convention serves as a critical moment for the party to rally its supporters and present a unified front. With speeches from key figures, the adoption of a comprehensive platform, and the nomination of Kamala Harris as the presidential candidate, the convention will set the stage for the final stretch of the campaign.

The 2024 electoral race has seen a significant shift since Vice President Kamala Harris took the helm of the Democratic ticket, altering the political map that once appeared to be a rematch between an unpopular, aging incumbent president and the former president, now a convicted felon, whom he defeated four years ago.

This latest analysis of the “Road to 270” electoral map shows several moves favoring Harris, indicating she has more pathways to securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency than President Joe Biden had when he led the Democratic Party. The current outlook resembles the situation in the final days of the 2020 campaign, focusing on seven battleground states and one congressional district in Nebraska. These areas are expected to receive the most attention and resources from both campaigns as they vie for the White House. In the month since Biden announced he would not run for re-election, these seven states have witnessed $240 million in advertising spending, split almost evenly between the two parties, according to AdImpact.

Previously, former President Donald Trump held a clear advantage in the race to 270 electoral votes. However, Harris’ entry into the race and her swift success in unifying the Democratic Party and regaining support from key groups, including voters of color, young voters, and women, has erased that advantage. Although the momentum has shifted in Harris’ favor, the race remains extremely close, with no clear frontrunner. Both Trump and Harris have multiple routes to achieving the necessary 270 electoral votes.

In this new analysis, four states have shifted from leaning Republican to being classified as toss-up battlegrounds: Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Together, these states account for 53 electoral votes, which were previously considered to lean toward Trump.

Trump now has 24 states and one congressional district in Maine either solidly in his favor or leaning in his direction, giving him a total of 219 electoral votes, 51 short of the 270 needed to win. Meanwhile, Harris has 19 states plus the District of Columbia either solidly in her favor or leaning her way, totaling 225 electoral votes, 45 votes shy of the required 270.

Currently, seven states and one Nebraska congressional district, amounting to 94 electoral votes, are classified as true toss-ups as the Democratic National Convention approaches and the summer draws to a close.

It is crucial to understand that this electoral outlook is a snapshot of the current state of the electoral college, not a prediction of the final outcome in November. The analysis is based on public and private polling, discussions with campaign advisers, political operatives from both parties, members of Congress, and professionals involved with outside groups active in the race.

As some Sun Belt states, such as Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, have become more competitive with Harris in the race, her most straightforward path to 270 electoral votes likely involves maintaining the “Blue Wall” states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—and retaining the Omaha-area congressional district in Nebraska in the Democratic column.

For Trump, the most direct route to 270 electoral votes would involve holding onto all the states he won in 2020 and flipping Georgia and Pennsylvania—two states he won in 2016—back to his column. Keeping North Carolina from slipping away is also critical for Trump, which may explain his recent focus on the state, including two visits in as many weeks and increased spending on television ads there.

The current electoral map breaks down as follows:

Solid Republican (188 Electoral Votes):Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3).

Leans Republican (31 Electoral Votes):Florida (30), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1).

Toss-ups (94 Electoral Votes):Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10).

Leans Democratic (50 Electoral Votes): Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (8), Virginia (13).

Solid Democratic (175 Electoral Votes):California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12).

Americans, regardless of their political beliefs, are united in acknowledging that rent costs are high and purchasing a home feels almost out of reach. The housing affordability crisis in the United States is rooted in fundamental economic principles of supply and demand. The housing market is suffering from a severe shortage of available homes, as many sellers are reluctant to put their properties on the market. This hesitancy is largely due to the fear that moving to a new home will result in higher mortgage payments, given the current historic mortgage rates. Meanwhile, demand for homes surged during the pandemic and has remained strong, despite rising prices and interest rates.

Although there are indications that the worst of the housing affordability crisis may have passed, the market remains constrained. This issue is so pressing that it has become a key topic for voters in the 2024 presidential election. On Friday, Vice President Kamala Harris introduced a comprehensive plan aimed at making housing more affordable. While some analysts welcomed certain aspects of her proposals, others expressed concern that some elements might exacerbate existing issues in the housing market.

Harris’ plan, which builds on previously announced proposals by President Joe Biden, includes several key initiatives:

– Up to $25,000 in down-payment assistance for first-time homebuyers.

– A $10,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers.

– Tax incentives for developers who build starter homes intended for first-time buyers.

– Expansion of tax incentives for the construction of affordable rental housing.

– The creation of a $40 billion innovation fund to encourage innovative housing construction methods.

– The repurposing of federal land for affordable housing projects.

– A ban on the use of algorithm-driven tools that landlords use to set rental prices.

– The removal of tax benefits for investors who purchase large numbers of single-family rental homes.

Several economists concurred that adding more homes to the market through these incentives would help alleviate the affordability issue by increasing inventory and potentially driving down prices. However, there was skepticism about the effectiveness of capping rent.

Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist at RSM US, commented on the plan, saying, “What I’ve seen is three parts substance and one part symbolism.” He praised the focus on increasing housing supply through financial channels, describing it as a solid and forward-thinking proposal. However, he viewed the rent caps as more symbolic than practical.

President Biden’s July proposal to limit rent increases to 5% is likely to resonate with the public, according to Brusuelas. However, he noted that the current economic conditions are already easing rent pressures, making such caps potentially redundant. The Consumer Price Index data for July, released on Wednesday, showed that the “rent of shelter” index had risen by 5.1% annually, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Despite this, recent trends indicate that rents are decreasing, with landlords offering incentives like free parking and rent-free months to attract tenants. Brusuelas believes that this makes the proposed price caps ineffective.

Lanhee Chen, director of domestic policy studies at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University and a former campaign adviser for Republicans like Senator Mitt Romney, criticized the rent control measures in Harris’ plan. “What is effectively a federal rent-control measure… was a bad idea when President Biden proposed it a few weeks ago,” Chen said. He also expressed concerns about the $40 billion innovation fund, suggesting that it might be another financial giveaway to local governments without clear accountability for results.

Chen also voiced apprehension about the down-payment assistance initiative. While it may seem appealing to potential homebuyers, it could inadvertently increase demand and drive up housing costs even further. Brusuelas shared a similar viewpoint, noting that while the down-payment assistance might appeal to Gen Z voters, its overall impact on the market is uncertain.

Despite these concerns, Brusuelas emphasized that the most substantial part of Harris’ plan is the proposal to add 3 million housing units to the market. Long before the pandemic and the subsequent supply chain disruptions and rise in remote work, the U.S. housing market was already struggling with chronically low inventory levels. This scarcity of homes has been a significant factor in driving up prices and worsening the affordability crisis.

“The proposal released Thursday from the Harris campaign is the only one I’ve seen that directly addresses the concerns around the supply of housing,” Brusuelas said. He highlighted the need for a coordinated effort by federal, state, and local governments to increase housing supply, as the nation currently faces a shortage of approximately 3 million homes.

Chen agreed that increasing housing supply is the most commendable aspect of Harris’ plan. “There’s bipartisan support for repurposing federal lands for the construction of affordable housing, and the concept of creating the right tax and economic incentives for builders to construct more new housing,” he said. However, Chen expressed some concerns about the targeting of these incentives but acknowledged that these “supply-side” reforms are long overdue.

Former President Donald Trump has also proposed using federal land to address the housing shortage. During a news conference on Thursday, Trump stated, “We’re going to open up tracts of federal land for housing construction. We desperately need housing for people who can’t afford what’s going on now.”

The Republican National Committee’s platform also emphasizes the importance of promoting homeownership through tax incentives and support for first-time buyers. The platform includes a commitment to reducing unnecessary regulations that increase housing costs and lowering mortgage rates by curbing inflation.

Jeffrey Zabel, an economics professor at Tufts University, expressed cautious optimism about Harris’ plan. However, he noted that turning these promises into reality will be challenging. “While this is a step in the right direction, let’s wait and see what they can actually implement,” Zabel said. He emphasized that proposing such measures is one thing, but successfully implementing them is another. Even if these proposals are enacted, Zabel believes that much more needs to be done to restore balance to the housing supply.

While Vice President Kamala Harris’ housing plan has sparked debate, it addresses the critical issue of increasing housing supply, which many experts agree is essential to solving the housing affordability crisis. The effectiveness of rent caps and down-payment assistance remains uncertain, but the proposal to build 3 million new homes may be the key to alleviating the strain on the housing market.

The nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate has introduced a significant shift in the race, with implications that are still unfolding. Her potential to become the first female U.S. president brings the role of the women’s vote into sharp focus for the upcoming November election.

Looking back at the 2022 midterm elections, the women’s vote played a crucial role in countering the expected “red wave,” leading Democrats to perform better than anticipated. This election took place shortly after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, allowing states to impose strict limitations on abortion access. The ruling galvanized a higher-than-expected turnout among women, particularly young women, who supported Democratic candidates in the House of Representatives and state elections.

Now, with Vice President Harris stepping into the role of the Democratic candidate, there is a renewed wave of enthusiasm among Democrats, especially women. Polls conducted weeks before Harris’ nomination showed President Joe Biden trailing behind his Republican opponent, Donald Trump. However, Harris’ emergence has energized many, with women’s health, abortion rights, and reproductive freedom—issues Harris has long championed—taking center stage in the campaign. According to Brookings Institution’s Elaine Kamarck, these issues will be pivotal in the election. Harris has also advocated for policies important to women, including paid parental leave, child care, and economic policies that resonate with younger and minority women. The support for Harris from women’s groups is already visible through increased funding and outreach efforts.

With Harris leading the ticket, the question arises: Will this newfound enthusiasm and potential surge in female voter turnout be sufficient to secure her victory in November? To explore this, it’s essential to review the role of women’s votes in recent presidential elections, identify the demographics most favorable to Democratic candidates, and examine how gender differences in voter turnout could provide women with an electoral advantage. Additionally, analyzing the demographic shifts among female voters from 2012 to the present reveals a rise in Democratic-leaning groups within this electorate. Finally, a simulation of the 2024 election, based on recent polling data, offers insights into Harris’ chances if this enthusiasm translates into increased voter turnout and support among women.

Historically, women have shown a consistent preference for Democratic candidates in presidential elections. Since 1984, women have consistently voted for Democrats over Republicans. This trend is evident in recent elections, as illustrated by the Democratic-Republican (D-R) vote margins by gender from 2000 to 2020. In each election, the D-R margins have been positive for women, who have leaned more Democratic than men, regardless of the party that ultimately won the presidency.

The 2020 election, in particular, highlighted significant gender disparities in voting patterns across battleground states. In seven key states, only one of which (North Carolina) was won by Trump, women exhibited positive D-R margins, while men showed negative margins. The most pronounced gender disparities were observed in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia, where women’s votes were crucial in securing Democratic victories.

These gender differences extended across various demographic groups in the 2020 election. Women’s D-R margins were higher than men’s in groups that traditionally lean Democratic, such as Black voters, Hispanic voters, and young voters aged 18 to 29. Even among non-college-educated white women, who generally favor Republicans, the negative D-R margins were smaller compared to their male counterparts. The only exception was among Asian American voters, where men’s D-R margins were higher than women’s.

Beyond partisan preferences, voter turnout rates will play a crucial role in determining women’s influence in the upcoming election. Since 1980, women have consistently exhibited higher turnout rates than men in presidential elections. In the 2020 election, these turnout rates reached their highest levels in decades. Due to their higher turnout and longer life expectancy, there were 9.7 million more female voters than male voters in 2020.

Women’s higher turnout rates also contributed to their majority share of the electorate, comprising 53% of all voters in 2020. However, this share varies across different demographic groups. For instance, women accounted for 58% of Black voters, 55% of Asian voters, and 54% of Hispanic voters. Among voters aged 65 and older, 54% were women. Even within the white non-college graduate group, which tends to favor Republicans, women still made up a majority of 52%.

As the size of the female electorate continues to grow, its demographic composition is also evolving. Between 2012 and 2024, there have been notable shifts in the profile of eligible female voters by race and education. Specifically, there have been gains in women’s groups that are more likely to vote Democratic—such as white college graduates and women of color—and a decline in the women’s group that tends to favor Republicans—white non-college graduates. For the first time in a presidential election, the latter group will comprise less than 40% of the female electorate.

Similar demographic shifts are evident in the battleground states, where the female electorate has become more diverse and Democratic-leaning. In states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, there has been a decline in the share of white non-college-educated women and an increase in the share of women of color. For example, in Nevada, the proportion of white non-college-educated women decreased from 48% in 2012 to 35% in 2024, while the proportion of women of color increased from 36% to 47% over the same period. These demographic changes have contributed to a more Democratic-leaning voter profile among women in these states.

As polls conducted before and after Harris’ nomination reveal, there are early indications of how the 2024 election might unfold. Three polls of likely voters conducted by the New York Times/Siena College on June 26, July 3, and July 25—after Biden’s endorsement of Harris—show shifts in D-R voting margins among men and women. Notably, the D-R margin for women stood at 14% in favor of Harris versus Trump on July 25, while the negative D-R margin for men remained high at 17%.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate has the potential to reshape the dynamics of the 2024 election, particularly with regard to the women’s vote. The enthusiasm and support for Harris among women, coupled with the changing demographic composition of the female electorate, suggest that women will play a decisive role in the outcome of the election. If this newfound enthusiasm translates into higher voter turnout and increased support for Harris among women, it could significantly boost her chances of winning the presidency in November.

Vice President Kamala Harris is intensifying her focus on high food and housing costs, a central concern for voters, as she prepares to deliver an economic policy speech in North Carolina. In her speech, Harris is expected to advocate for a federal ban on price gouging in groceries and outline strategies to reduce other living costs, positioning these initiatives as extensions of the current administration’s efforts.

Although inflation has recently hit its lowest point in over three years, food prices remain significantly elevated, with a 21% increase compared to three years ago. Former President Donald Trump, now the Republican presidential nominee, has been critical of the Biden administration’s handling of inflation, making it a key issue in his campaign.

Housing costs, another major contributor to inflation, are also a focal point of Harris’s policy proposals. She plans to leverage federal resources to facilitate the construction of three million new housing units, legislate to curb rent hikes, and offer $25,000 in down-payment assistance to first-time homebuyers if elected. Harris is aligning herself closely with President Joe Biden’s legislative and economic record, framing her plans as continuations of their joint work over the past three and a half years.

The proposed Harris housing plan includes the introduction of a tax credit for builders who develop starter homes aimed at first-time buyers and the expansion of a $20 billion “innovation fund” from the Biden administration to support housing construction. The down-payment assistance plan would also significantly build on Biden’s existing proposal to offer federal aid to first-time homebuyers.

Earlier this week, both Biden and Harris celebrated their administration’s achievements in lowering prescription drug prices at an event in Maryland. This marked Harris’s first joint speaking engagement with Biden since she assumed the lead on the Democratic ticket nearly four weeks ago. During the event, they announced that negotiated drug prices would reduce the costs of ten of Medicare’s most expensive drugs, cutting prices by hundreds or even thousands of dollars. This program, a result of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act focused on health care and climate, was made possible through Harris’s tiebreaking vote in the Senate, which allowed Democrats to overcome unified Republican opposition. As Biden noted, “The tiebreaking vote of Kamala made that possible,” adding his confidence that Harris would be a formidable president.

Biden has also undertaken initiatives to combat rising food prices, including the establishment of a “competition council” aimed at reducing costs by fostering competition within the meat industry. This is part of a broader strategy to demonstrate that his administration is actively working to tackle inflation. When questioned on Thursday about whether he was concerned Harris might distance herself from his economic policies, Biden assured reporters, “She’s not going to.”

Public opinion, however, reveals a mixed response to Harris’s economic capabilities. According to the latest poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, 45% of Americans believe Trump is better suited to handle the economy, while 38% favor Harris. Notably, about one in ten respondents expressed trust in neither candidate regarding economic management.

Speaking at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, Trump criticized Harris’s proposals, labeling them as “communist price controls” that would exacerbate shortages, hunger, and inflation. As he made these remarks, Trump was flanked by popular grocery items to underscore his point about rising food costs.

Harris’s housing plan also includes measures to address data-sharing and price-setting tools used by landlords to determine rents and the elimination of a tax incentive that has led investment firms to acquire substantial portions of the nation’s housing stock. Harris plans to contrast her approach with Trump’s, referencing a lawsuit brought against him by the Justice Department five decades ago for housing discrimination.

Consumer confidence surveys indicate that high prices continue to frustrate shoppers, especially those in lower-income brackets, despite the overall cooling of inflation. Prices across the board are about 21% higher than they were before the pandemic, although average incomes have risen slightly more, sustaining consumer spending even as many Americans report a pessimistic outlook on the economy.

Certain meat prices have risen even more steeply than overall inflation: beef prices have surged nearly 33% since the pandemic began, chicken by 31%, and pork by 21%, according to government data. Pandemic-related supply chain disruptions played a role in these increases, as many meat processing plants temporarily shut down due to COVID-19 outbreaks among workers.

The Biden administration, however, has argued that corporate consolidation in the meat processing industry has been a more significant factor, enabling a few large companies to hike prices beyond their costs. In late 2021, the White House noted that four major companies control between 55% and 85% of the beef, chicken, and poultry markets, naming Tyson Foods and JBS among the dominant players. These companies have paid out hundreds of millions of dollars to settle price-fixing lawsuits for chicken, beef, and pork, though they have not admitted to any wrongdoing.

Some economists have suggested that large food and consumer goods companies took advantage of pandemic-era disruptions, a phenomenon economist Isabella Weber at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, termed “seller’s inflation.” Others have referred to it as “greedflation.”

Harris’s proposals to curb price gouging come at a time when there is some evidence that this “seller’s inflation” is easing. Consumers are becoming more selective and are opting for lower-cost alternatives over more expensive options. The government reported Wednesday that grocery prices, on average nationwide, have risen just 1.1% in the past year, aligning with pre-pandemic price increases.

The meat industry has long been defending against allegations of price gouging and price-fixing. Major players in the industry dispute claims that their consolidation is responsible for high prices. Glynn Tonsor, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, explained that the increased costs of raising animals, processing meat, and delivering it to consumers have contributed to higher prices. “Yes, consumers are seeing higher prices, but it doesn’t necessarily mean somebody is gouging them,” Tonsor said.

Julie Anna Potts, President, and CEO of the Meat Institute trade group, echoed this sentiment, arguing that Harris’s proposal would not address the underlying causes of inflation. “Consumers have been impacted by high prices due to inflation on everything from services to rent to automobiles, not just at the grocery store,” Potts said. “A federal ban on price gouging does not address the real causes of inflation.”

Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, has quickly risen to the forefront of the presidential race just three weeks into her campaign. This surge has put her ahead in horserace polling, a challenge that former President Joe Biden struggled to overcome during his time as a candidate. However, the sustainability of this momentum remains uncertain.

The political landscape in the United States has been particularly tumultuous in recent weeks. Significant events, such as the July 13 assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the Republican convention, Trump’s selection of a running mate, Biden’s decision to exit the presidential race, and Harris’s choice of a vice-presidential candidate, have all contributed to the current dynamics. Each of these events alone would typically cause a temporary shift in polling numbers. However, the cumulative impact of these occurrences makes it difficult to determine the true state of the race. With the Democratic convention approaching, yet another potential shift in voter sentiment looms.

As the race evolves, questions arise about its structural changes and the possibility of Trump regaining the lead. A surge of polling in the coming days will begin to shed light on these uncertainties, followed by a critical two-month period of intense polling. Several key metrics have emerged as indicators of Harris’s early success, including her rising personal favorability and the narrowing gap in Trump’s advantage on economic issues, a core aspect of his campaign.

Neil Newhouse, lead pollster for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, commented on the nature of the race, saying, “Presidential campaigns are a marathon, and this one has turned into a sprint. And that tends to favor the candidate who is new on the horizon.”

To gain a deeper understanding of the current state of the race, five key numbers should be closely monitored beyond the basic horserace polling.

Kamala Harris’ Favorability Rating

On June 27, Harris’s favorability rating stood at 39 percent, according to a RealClearPolitics average. As of now, that number has climbed to 45 percent. Voters are beginning to see Harris in a new light since she became the Democratic presidential candidate.

For the past three years, there has been a significant disparity between the number of voters who viewed Harris favorably and those who held an unfavorable opinion of her. However, that gap has narrowed. In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, likely voters in key battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were nearly evenly split in their views of Harris, with 50 percent holding a favorable opinion and 48 percent an unfavorable one.

Despite this improvement, there is no guarantee that it will last. Trump’s campaign has already launched an advertising blitz in battleground states, attempting to portray Harris as “dangerously liberal.” This negative campaigning could potentially erode her favorability ratings, particularly as her record faces increased scrutiny following the initial excitement of her campaign rollout.

“Image is a precursor to ballot change,” said Newhouse. “You’ll see her image change before the ballot changes. You’ll see her unfavs go up, her very unfavs in particular.”

Trump, too, is experiencing a high point in his favorability, at least since the 2020 election. This surge follows the assassination attempt and the Republican convention, but it’s possible that his numbers might also recede to more typical levels, which have generally been unfavorable.

“With Kamala Harris, it’s like ‘A Star is Born,’” observed Mark Mellman, lead pollster for then-Sen. John Kerry in the 2004 presidential race. “It’s not unreal. It’s not unnatural. It’s not fake. But it’s not necessarily permanent. I can certainly imagine a situation where both candidates’ favorabilities decline a little bit.”

Third-Party Vote Share

On July 21, the percentage of voters indicating support for one of the three independent or third-party candidates—Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, or Jill Stein—stood at 12.2 percent, according to a RealClearPolitics average. Today, that number has dropped to 7.1 percent.

While this metric is technically part of the horserace question, it also provides insight into an election where a larger portion of voters now appears to favor their primary options. This shift is attributed to Harris’s surge in popularity and the post-assassination and post-conviction rise in Trump’s favorability. Before Harris replaced Biden on the Democratic ticket, a significant portion of voters expressed dislike for both Biden and Trump, with as many as a quarter of voters falling into this category.

These voters, often referred to as “double-haters,” were seen as potentially decisive in the election. However, their numbers have dwindled. A recent Monmouth University poll revealed that only 8 percent of registered voters now hold unfavorable views of both major-party candidates. Consequently, there are fewer voters inclined to support Kennedy, West, or Stein.

Voter Enthusiasm

Among Democrats, 62 percent are “very enthusiastic” about the election, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Among Republicans, the figure is slightly higher, at 63 percent.

While higher enthusiasm doesn’t always translate into victory, as seen in the 2012 election where Romney supporters were more enthusiastic than Obama’s, Harris has managed to energize the Democratic base in a way that Biden and the fear of a second Trump term had not. In the New York Times/Siena College polls, Democrats and Harris supporters expressed enthusiasm for voting at levels comparable to Republicans and Trump supporters.

The enthusiasm gap is even more pronounced in the Monmouth poll, where 85 percent of Democrats described themselves as enthusiastic about the Harris-Trump race, compared to 71 percent of Republicans. The level of enthusiasm among Republicans remained unchanged from June, when Monmouth pollsters inquired about a potential Trump-Biden rematch. However, for Democrats, this represents a significant shift, as only 46 percent expressed enthusiasm about the rematch before the debate.

While enthusiasm alone doesn’t guarantee more votes, it could play a crucial role in a close race by closing the energy gap between supporters of different candidates.

Perceptions on Economic Leadership

In June, Trump held a substantial lead over Biden on the economy, with 54 percent of voters favoring him compared to Biden’s 45 percent, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll. Now, the gap has narrowed significantly, with Trump at 51 percent and Harris at 48 percent.

Trump’s strong advantage on economic issues has been a central feature of his campaign. However, Harris’s entry into the race has disrupted this dynamic. Polls now show a much closer contest on economic leadership between Trump and Harris, with Trump holding a slight edge of 3 points in a national NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll and 6 points in the Rust Belt battlegrounds surveyed by the New York Times/Siena College.

Harris is eager to establish her own record on the economy. She has planned an event in North Carolina to present her plan to lower costs, signaling her intent to differentiate herself from Biden’s record on inflation, which could be a significant challenge for her campaign.

National Direction Perception

On June 27, 25 percent of voters believed the country was heading in the right direction, while 65 percent thought it was on the wrong track. Today, these figures remain unchanged.

Although this metric hasn’t shifted, voters’ perceptions of it may be evolving. Previously, Trump was seen as the candidate representing change, a favorable position given that two-thirds of voters viewed the country as heading in the wrong direction. However, Harris’s entry into the race has complicated Trump’s status as the candidate of change. She is now positioning herself as the fresh, new face of the campaign, with an emphasis on her youth and vision for the future. This contrasts with Trump, who at 78 years old, is the first person in 80 years to be his party’s presidential nominee in three consecutive elections.

Trump and his supporters will likely focus on convincing voters that Harris, as vice president, bears responsibility for the current state of the country and should be held accountable for the perceived wrong direction.

A significant new poll indicates Kamala Harris has overtaken Donald Trump in three pivotal swing states, marking a substantial momentum shift for the Democratic party just three months before the election.

The poll shows the vice-president leading the former president by four percentage points—50% to 46%—across Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. This survey, conducted by the New York Times and Siena College, sampled nearly 2,000 likely voters between August 5 and 9.

This polling period coincided with Harris’s announcement of Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota and a former high school teacher from the Midwest, as her running mate for the November Democratic ticket.

The poll results offer the most definitive snapshot yet of voter sentiment in critical battleground states since Joe Biden exited the race, throwing his support behind Harris amid increasing concerns about his cognitive health and capacity to serve a second term. This development follows months of polling that showed Biden either neck-and-neck with or slightly trailing Trump.

Registered voters in these states perceive Harris as more intelligent, honest, and temperamentally suited to govern the country compared to Trump.

These findings, released on Saturday by the New York Times, are likely to energize the Democratic base as Harris and Walz continue their campaign across the country. This week marks their first together on the campaign trail, with multiple events planned in swing states that could determine the election outcome.

On Saturday, Harris and Walz held a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada—a state that Biden and Harris won by over two points in the 2020 election.

Although the poll offers only a brief glimpse into the current state of the race, Democrats may find optimism in the fact that 60% of surveyed independent voters—a crucial demographic in determining election outcomes—expressed satisfaction with the presidential candidates. This is a marked increase from the 45% reported in May.

The shift appears to be largely influenced by changing voter perceptions of Harris, who has garnered praise for her positive and forward-looking speeches on the campaign trail. In Pennsylvania, where Biden narrowly defeated Trump by just over 80,000 votes in the previous election, Harris’s favorability rating among registered voters has increased by 10 points since last month, according to the Times/Siena polling data.

To secure a Democratic victory, Harris must win in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan—key battleground states that Biden won in 2020.

The latest polls may further frustrate Trump, whose recent campaign events have been dominated by anger and apparent disbelief at the swift change in momentum. Just weeks ago, Trump announced JD Vance, Ohio senator and former venture capitalist, as his running mate during the Republican national convention, which had a celebratory atmosphere.

Vance has faced criticism from Democrats, who have labeled him as “weird” due to his controversial comments in 2021 about the United States being run by “childless cat ladies.” The new poll shows that the majority of independents, Democrats, and even some Republicans view Vance unfavorably or with little enthusiasm.

Despite this, Democrats still face challenges in effectively communicating Harris’s vision for the country. The poll reveals that 60% of registered voters believe Trump has a clear vision for the nation, compared to 53% for Harris.

Moreover, Trump continues to lead in voter confidence on handling the economy and immigration—two of the three most critical issues for voters, according to the polls.

Nevertheless, Harris holds a significant 24-point lead over Trump on the issue of abortion, which Democrats hope will mobilize voters in crucial swing states like Arizona and Wisconsin. Harris is also perceived far more favorably than Trump regarding democracy. Trump remains embroiled in legal challenges, including charges related to his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election results and his involvement in the January 6 Capitol insurrection.

In response to the poll, Tony Fabrizio, the Trump campaign’s chief pollster, asserted that the new surveys “dramatically understated President Trump’s support,” pointing to polling errors in the 2020 election that overestimated Biden’s margin of victory.

In the current economic landscape, having substantial wealth has always been advantageous, but now more than ever, it seems to be a particularly opportune time to be affluent. The Institute for Policy Studies highlights that during the COVID-19 pandemic, American billionaires saw their wealth increase by 62%. Meanwhile, Oxfam reports that the wealthiest 1% of the world amassed two-thirds of the $42 trillion in new wealth generated in the years following the pandemic.

Vice President Kamala Harris, who is positioning herself as a strong candidate for the presidency, shares concerns with her current superior, President Joe Biden, regarding these statistics. Both see these figures as indicative of an unhealthy level of wealth inequality and economic disparity in the country. Should Harris secure a victory in the November election and work with a cooperative Congress, the wealthy in America might find themselves facing significant changes, particularly those with large fortunes.

Harris’s Wealth Tax Proposal

One of Harris’s primary focuses as a potential president would be to implement tax policies that target the wealthiest Americans. Dennis Shirshikov, a professor of finance, accounting, and economics at the City University of New York, and a seasoned real estate investor, anticipates that a Harris administration would advocate for significant tax reforms aimed at increasing the tax burden on high-income earners. “A Kamala Harris presidency could bring significant changes to the tax landscape for the wealthy,” Shirshikov notes.

A critical component of these potential changes is the introduction of a wealth tax. This idea is embedded in the Biden-Harris 2025 budget proposal, which argues that the current tax code is skewed in favor of the wealthy, allowing them to pay disproportionately low taxes compared to middle-class Americans. The proposal aims to impose a minimum tax of 25% on individuals with wealth exceeding $100 million, addressing what it describes as a glaring inequity in the tax system.

Taxing Capital Gains and Unrealized Gains

Another area of focus for Harris would be closing tax loopholes that disproportionately benefit the wealthy. The Biden-Harris budget proposal plans to treat capital gains as regular income for individuals earning $1 million or more, a significant shift from current tax policies. This change would also eliminate the carried interest loophole, which allows investment fund managers to pay lower tax rates than average workers, and the like-kind exchange loophole, which lets real estate investors defer taxes indefinitely.

Perhaps the most groundbreaking proposal is the taxation of unrealized gains for the ultra-wealthy, a concept described by IFC Media as a “radical departure from normal taxation.” Traditionally, unrealized gains — the increase in value of an asset that has not yet been sold — are not taxed. However, Harris’s proposed 25% tax on these gains for individuals with fortunes exceeding $100 million would mark a significant shift in U.S. tax policy.

Implications for High Earners

Harris’s tax proposals are not limited to the ultra-rich. She also supports raising the top marginal tax rate, a move that would affect a broader range of high-income earners. According to Shirshikov, “This approach aligns with her broader goal of addressing income inequality and ensuring that the wealthiest Americans contribute a fairer share to public revenues.”

The Biden-Harris 2025 budget proposal specifically seeks to repeal the tax cuts implemented under former President Donald Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which reduced the top tax rate for high earners to 37%. Under the new proposal, the top tax rate would be restored to 39.6% for single filers earning more than $400,000 annually and married couples earning more than $450,000. Although these income levels might seem modest compared to billionaire wealth, they place individuals in the top 2% of earners, according to the Tax Foundation. The Biden-Harris administration believes that targeting this group is a reasonable step in addressing income inequality.

The anticipated tax changes under a Harris presidency are intended to generate revenue for social programs and address the widening wealth gap in America. However, these measures are also expected to have significant implications for investment strategies and financial planning among the affluent. As Shirshikov advises, individuals in this income bracket would be wise to start preparing now by consulting with their financial advisors.

Final Thoughts

A Kamala Harris presidency could bring about profound changes in the way the wealthy are taxed in the United States. Her proposals, embedded in the Biden-Harris 2025 budget, aim to create a more equitable tax system that ensures the wealthiest Americans pay a fairer share. Whether through the introduction of a wealth tax, the taxation of unrealized gains, or the increase in the top marginal tax rate, Harris’s potential policies are likely to have a significant impact on the financial landscape for high-income earners in America.