Category: India

Recent data released by the World Bank draws a striking contrast between India and Pakistan, two neighboring South Asian countries with a shared colonial past but vastly different trajectories in addressing poverty. The figures reflect not just economic performance but also the choices made by each nation over the past several years, shedding light on how governance, policy priorities, and accountability can shape the future of millions.

India’s data, released by the World Bank on Saturday, compares poverty levels between the fiscal years 2011-12 and 2022-23. In contrast, Pakistan’s statistics cover a shorter period, from 2017-18 to 2020-21. The timing of this data release is noteworthy, coinciding with recent developments that saw India overtake Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in the world. Conversely, Pakistan was in the news for yet another financial bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), signaling its ongoing economic instability.

The diverging paths of these two countries highlight the consequences of their respective governance models. While India’s progress stems from a developmental agenda focused on poverty alleviation, Pakistan’s challenges are rooted in mismanagement of funds and continued support for policies associated with extremism.

The World Bank has updated its definition of extreme poverty by adjusting the income threshold from $2.15 to $3 per person per day to account for inflation. Using this new benchmark, the World Bank’s Poverty and Shared Prosperity report shows that India achieved a major reduction in poverty. Between 2012 and 2022, the proportion of people in India living in extreme poverty dropped from 27.1 percent to just 5.3 percent of the population.

The numbers behind this transformation are significant. In 2022-23, about 75.24 million Indians were living in extreme poverty, a dramatic decrease from 344.47 million in 2011-12. That means 269 million people—more than the total population of Pakistan—were lifted out of extreme poverty in just 11 years.

Pakistan’s experience over a shorter span presents a grim picture. From 2017 to 2021, the percentage of people in extreme poverty rose sharply from 4.9 percent to 16.5 percent. Experts caution that these figures may understate the crisis, given that they are based on outdated surveys such as Pakistan’s Household Income and Expenditure Survey. In terms of the broader poverty line of $4.2 per person per day, the poverty headcount in Pakistan jumped from 39.8 percent of the population in 2017 to more than 44.7 percent in 2021.

Pakistan’s economic strategy has relied heavily on external loans to stay afloat. It has received 25 bailout packages from the IMF, totaling $44.57 billion. In addition, Pakistan has borrowed $38.8 billion from institutions like the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the Islamic Development Bank. Loans from China alone surpass $25 billion, and additional funds totaling $7.8 billion have come from sources like Eurobonds and Sukuks. Meanwhile, countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and members of the Paris Club have extended several billion dollars in support as well.

Despite this significant inflow of money, transparency and accountability remain serious concerns in Pakistan. Over the years, international financial institutions have repeatedly raised alarms over Islamabad’s handling of funds. A major criticism lies in the fact that a considerable portion of these resources is diverted to military expenditure. This spending often supports Pakistan’s long-standing policy of asymmetric warfare against India, which includes financing terrorist organizations and maintaining terror infrastructure.

Ajay Bisaria, a former High Commissioner of India to Pakistan, emphasized this point during an interview with NDTV. “The world cannot fix the Pakistan problem unless the structural problem of Pakistan army’s overwhelming presence in politics and economy is fixed. Pakistan’s army controls the allocation of resources. So, all the funds that are sent either via bilateral donors or multilateral donors ends up being misused by the army and in building the terror machinery. All donors will do well to get a wake-up call from the data which shows that only the Pakistani army is getting enriched by its bailouts.”

Bisaria further advised that global institutions must adopt stricter oversight. “The world will do well to put strong FATF-like conditions to monitor the aid money that goes to Pakistan to ensure funds are used for development and the benefit of the people of Pakistan,” he added.

Echoing this sentiment, former Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar told NDTV, “The Pakistani government’s priorities focus mainly on defence purchases on one end, and building a terror apparatus on the other end. Growth and development are phrases that are unheard of in Pakistani politics, as all governments have an unhealthy obsession with bringing India down, economically, politically and socially, rather than focusing on its own pressing domestic issues.”

Sajjanhar also noted how Pakistan’s continued support for extremist agendas undermines its own development. “But dismantling terror factories are not on Pakistan’s agenda since most continue to indulge in falsehoods. When Congressman Brad Sherman told Pakistan to end terror, he also spoke on behalf of millions of Pakistanis who see their development funds being funneled away towards terror and towards fulfilling the inflated egos of Pakistani generals,” he added.

Economist Piyush Doshi, co-founder of the Foundation for Economic Development, commented on the irrationality of Pakistan’s spending patterns. “Pakistan spending money in defence, particularly when it comes at the cost of very important development expenditure, is illogical. The world will be doing the people of Pakistan a favour by blacklisting the country, which will then force them to make rational choices and using funds to benefit its citizens.”

The contrasting realities of India and Pakistan, as captured by the World Bank’s latest data, offer a powerful lesson to the Global South. India serves as an example of what can be achieved through determined leadership, sound policy, and a commitment to lifting citizens out of poverty. Pakistan, on the other hand, illustrates the dangers of misgovernance, misplaced priorities, and a lack of accountability.

In essence, these developments reveal that poverty is not an inevitable outcome of history or geography. Rather, it is shaped by leadership decisions, economic priorities, and national will. As the data clearly shows, one neighbor is forging ahead, and the other is faltering. The global message is loud and clear: poverty can be overcome—not by chance, but by choice.

India has garnered widespread bipartisan support from U.S. lawmakers in its ongoing battle against terrorism, according to Congress MP Shashi Tharoor. Tharoor is leading a multi-party Indian parliamentary delegation currently visiting Washington, D.C., to discuss counterterrorism cooperation and deepen diplomatic ties.

At a press briefing, Tharoor emphasized the warmth and unanimity of the American response, stating, “We didn’t encounter a single skeptical or negative voice. On the contrary, the responses were uniformly positive. There was total support and complete understanding of India’s right to defend itself against terrorism.” This visit marks a significant step in enhancing India-U.S. counterterrorism collaboration and fortifying the broader strategic partnership between the two democracies.

The Indian delegation held a series of meetings with key stakeholders on Capitol Hill, including members of the influential India Caucus, lawmakers from the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the South Asia and East Asia subcommittees, and six U.S. Senators—five of whom are members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and one representing the Senate Intelligence Committee. These discussions were aimed at rallying international support against terrorism and elaborating on the rationale behind India’s recent counterterrorism operation, known as Operation Sindoor.

Operation Sindoor, carried out in response to the April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam that left 26 people dead, has been central to the delegation’s engagements in the United States. The Resistance Front, which is believed to be affiliated with the Pakistan-based terror group Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for the attack.

Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna, who co-chairs the India Caucus, took to social media platform X to express his solidarity with India’s counterterrorism goals. “We discussed the importance of strengthening U.S.-India counterterrorism cooperation and dismantling the terrorist groups responsible for the April 22 attack in Pahalgam,” Khanna said, reaffirming the depth of bipartisan interest in expanding security collaboration between the two nations.

Senator Dave McCormick, a Republican who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on the Near East, South Asia, Central Asia, and Counterterrorism, echoed these sentiments. He highlighted the alignment of values between India and the United States. “We discussed combating terrorism, pushing back against authoritarian regimes, and deepening our economic ties to build a free and democratic future,” McCormick posted, noting the significance of bolstering shared democratic ideals in addition to security interests.

Representative Gregory Meeks, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, also met with Tharoor and underscored the commitment of the U.S. Congress to its partnership with India. “My colleagues and I expressed condolences for the terrorist attack in Pahalgam and reaffirmed Congress’s commitment to the U.S.-India partnership,” Meeks posted following the meeting. He acknowledged Tharoor’s role as Chair of India’s Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs, highlighting the importance of legislative diplomacy in bilateral relations.

Tharoor reflected positively on the Capitol Hill engagements, stating, “We left Capitol Hill very pleased with the quality of the conversations and the level of engagement.” The U.S. stop is part of a broader diplomatic tour, during which the delegation had previously visited Guyana, Panama, Colombia, and Brazil. In each of these nations, the delegation received strong signals of solidarity against terrorism and keen interest in enhancing trade, investment, and other forms of economic collaboration.

According to Tharoor, this pattern of support underscores a global understanding of India’s security concerns and an eagerness to deepen bilateral and multilateral ties beyond security cooperation. “There was a fairly bipartisan consensus on Capitol Hill that as two of the world’s largest and most vibrant democracies, India and the United States have much to offer together,” Tharoor noted. He emphasized that while terrorism is an urgent concern, the long-term vision of the India-U.S. relationship must also center on economic partnerships and the shared defense of democratic institutions and values.

Delegation member Shashank Mani Tripathi and other MPs also conducted side meetings that focused on economic collaboration. These discussions aimed to explore opportunities for trade, technology exchange, and investment, reflecting India’s broader strategic objectives during the tour.

During the delegation’s visit to Washington, Tharoor also addressed journalists at the prestigious National Press Club. He used this platform to further promote India’s counterterrorism stance and to foster broader understanding among the American public and media. Additionally, he participated in a well-attended meeting with the Indian diaspora, where he encouraged Indian-Americans to remain actively engaged in civic life and to build bridges with their elected representatives.

“They listen to you. They respect you. You’re high achievers who can make a real impact. We’re proud of you,” Tharoor told diaspora members, urging them to play a proactive role in shaping India-U.S. relations from within American civil society.

The Indian parliamentary team represents a broad political spectrum, underscoring national unity on the issue of terrorism. Alongside Tharoor, the delegation includes Shambhavi Choudhary of the Lok Janshakti Party – Ram Vilas; Sarfaraz Ahmad of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha; Milind Murli Deora of the Shiv Sena; Bhubaneswar Kalita and Tejasvi Surya of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP); and G.M. Harish Balayogi of the Telugu Desam Party, which is an ally within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The presence of members from a wide range of political affiliations within the delegation was noted as a strength in meetings with U.S. lawmakers. It highlighted the unified political stance in India on the issue of terrorism and demonstrated the country’s cohesive approach to foreign policy and national security. This bipartisan Indian representation complemented the similarly bipartisan support they received from their American counterparts.

Tharoor and his colleagues hope their visit will serve as a foundation for deepened bilateral cooperation, not just in terms of defense and counterterrorism, but also in trade, education, technology, and climate action. As both India and the United States prepare for evolving geopolitical challenges, such exchanges are seen as vital for sustaining a resilient, long-term strategic partnership.

In conclusion, Tharoor’s delegation returns from Washington with a strong affirmation of U.S. solidarity, as well as a renewed sense of purpose in advancing India’s role on the world stage through democratic dialogue and strategic alignment.

India’s recent ascent to the position of the world’s fourth-largest economy highlights an extraordinary achievement in terms of national wealth. However, this rapid growth is undercut by a stark and troubling reality: a large portion of the population continues to live without access to three meals a day. The extent of this contradiction is reflected in the country’s 105th place on the Global Hunger Index 2024.

Hardik Joshi, an analyst who frequently discusses socioeconomic disparities, underscored this deep divide in a recent post on LinkedIn. He shared a striking comment from another user who stated, “If we remove the top 1% of rich people in India, we won’t even be comparable to African nations.” While this remark may seem blunt or even exaggerated at first glance, Joshi argued that it is strongly grounded in the available data.

India’s position on the hunger index places it behind countries such as Nigeria, which ranks at 100; Kenya at 89; and Ghana, which holds the 78th spot. These countries have smaller GDPs in comparison, yet India lags behind them when it comes to feeding its own people. Despite its economic standing, the country still struggles to meet basic nutritional needs for a significant share of its population.

Joshi explained that such rankings serve as a “mirror,” not as an overstatement. They force the country to reflect on who is really benefiting from all the growth. He argued that these facts must be taken seriously rather than dismissed as sensationalism. The reality is that the nation’s rising GDP masks severe and growing inequality.

India’s per capita income is approximately $3,000, which might suggest moderate prosperity on the surface. But averages are misleading when economic disparities run so deep. The top 1% of the population holds over 40% of the country’s total wealth, while the bottom 50% owns a mere 3%. This indicates that a vast number of people are surviving with barely enough to meet daily food requirements, with an estimated 700 million individuals living under various levels of food insecurity.

As Joshi put it, “We’ve mastered wealth creation, now we must figure out distribution.” His statement highlights the crux of India’s economic dilemma — wealth is indeed being generated, but its distribution remains lopsided and unfair. There is a significant gap between the creation of wealth and its impact on the everyday lives of ordinary citizens.

While overall national income figures suggest economic advancement, these numbers don’t account for how unequally that wealth is spread. India’s multidimensional poverty rate, which considers factors beyond income such as health and education, still stands at a concerning 16.4%. This figure underscores the fact that millions continue to face multiple layers of deprivation despite the country’s rise in global rankings.

Adding to the complexity is the structure of India’s labor force. About 90% of the workforce is part of the informal sector. This vast segment of the population works without formal contracts, social security, or steady income, leaving them vulnerable to economic shocks and making upward mobility extremely difficult. Informal employment generally offers low wages and little to no benefits, which further exacerbates poverty and food insecurity.

Joshi’s analysis also reveals how the urban-rural divide plays into the broader issue. Urban centers, with their booming industries and tech hubs, contribute significantly to GDP and tend to skew national statistics upward. However, these numbers fail to capture the struggle of rural communities, particularly those dependent on agriculture, who often do not share in the prosperity. Rural India continues to face challenges like low agricultural yields, inadequate infrastructure, and limited access to services, all of which contribute to food insecurity and economic hardship.

In this context, Joshi emphasized that the broader narrative of India’s economic growth doesn’t adequately account for who is truly reaping the benefits. His argument is not against development itself but rather about its distribution and inclusiveness. As he pointed out, “GDP means little if it hides empty plates.” This quote powerfully encapsulates his perspective — that economic figures and accolades lose meaning when a large segment of the population remains hungry and malnourished.

India’s achievements in terms of global economic status are, without a doubt, significant. But they must be weighed against the continuing struggle of millions who do not experience the benefits of this prosperity. Hunger, poverty, and inequality are issues that cannot be overlooked simply because the economy is expanding. The true test of growth lies in its ability to uplift everyone, not just the privileged few.

The data and observations laid out by Joshi draw a clear picture of a nation that stands at a crossroads. On one hand, there is success in wealth accumulation and global recognition; on the other, a growing crisis of hunger and inequity that undermines these very achievements. This dual reality calls for a rethinking of policy priorities, with a stronger focus on inclusive growth that ensures no one is left behind.

India’s path forward requires a shift in focus — not away from economic growth, but toward ensuring that growth is both equitable and sustainable. The country has demonstrated that it can generate wealth. The challenge now lies in distributing it more fairly and effectively, particularly to those who continue to go to bed hungry.

To address this, efforts must be made to strengthen social safety nets, increase investment in rural development, and formalize labor markets. Policies must aim at reducing income inequality and improving food security for the bottom half of the population. These are not just moral imperatives but also necessary steps for sustaining long-term national progress.

Joshi’s commentary, supported by hard data and global comparisons, serves as a critical reminder of the work that remains. His concluding reflections make it clear that growth alone is not enough — what truly matters is who benefits from that growth. The ultimate goal should be an India where its global economic ranking is matched by its success in eliminating hunger and improving the quality of life for all its citizens.

Congress MP Shashi Tharoor, heading an all-party delegation, delivered a powerful message at the World Trade Center, calling for a united global front against terrorism. Speaking outside the 9/11 Memorial in New York, Tharoor emphasized the importance of international solidarity in combating terrorism and highlighted the shared suffering of the United States and India.

During his remarks, Tharoor noted that India’s experience with terrorism mirrors the pain commemorated at the memorial. “We ourselves in India have been subject to the same wounds that you are seeing the scars of today in this very moving memorial. We have come in a spirit of solidarity, we have come at the same time on a mission,” he said. The visit to the 9/11 Memorial served as both a tribute and a reminder of the common threat terrorism poses to all democracies.

The delegation began its journey in New York and is scheduled to travel to Guyana, Panama, Brazil, and Colombia. While in New York, they met with prominent think tanks and leading Indian Americans, including Indra Nooyi, former CEO of PepsiCo and a board member of several global organizations like Amazon and the World Economic Forum.

Tharoor spoke passionately about the mission of the delegation. “In these countries we are hoping to be able to explain to the world how important it is for all of us to stand together against the scourge of terrorism. Just as the US showed such resolution and determination in the wake of 9/11, so too our country has stood up against the forces of evil who attacked us on the April 22. We hope that a lesson has been learned by those who perpetrated this attack and by those who finance, train, equip, and direct them,” he said.

He warned that India would not remain passive if such attacks were repeated, stating, “But we want to communicate to the world that we will not be sitting quietly if this is repeated. We want the world to understand that this is not a time for indifference, but for mutual strength and mutual solidarity, so that we can all unitedly stand up for the values that the United States has always cherished—the values of democracy, of human freedom, of diversity, of coexistence of people of different communities, none of which sadly is on the agenda of those who conducted such attacks.”

Tharoor stressed the need to pursue justice for terrorism and called for international accountability. “Perpetrators of terror should indeed be brought to justice, and we are not going to stop our hunt for those who did this latest atrocity,” he said. He emphasized the importance of identifying and targeting those who support and protect terrorists: “We need to think about where these people are based, where they have safe havens, where they are trained, equipped, financed, guided, armed, and often directly directed… to perpetrate these horrors, and they too should be accountable for what they have been doing.”

Addressing the issue of UN sanctions, Tharoor, who previously served as the UN Under Secretary General, remarked, “I think there are something like 52 individuals and organizations based in Pakistan that at one time or the other have been listed by the UN Sanctions Committee… There is something much more direct that needs to be done, and we are not going to confine ourselves only to listings, to diplomacy, to the production of international dossiers. We are also going to exercise our right to self-defense, which every country recognizes.”

He also expressed strong confidence in the Indian diaspora’s ability to influence public discourse in the United States. “You are a very influential diaspora in this country. You are not just numerous. You are prosperous… You have an influential voice. You’re active in public life. You’re active in politics… We would like you to help sensitize public opinion and political opinion in this country about what is going on and how wrong it is, and certainly we would expect the diaspora to partake of the messaging that we are here to do… you are actually a force multiplier for us as well. We come and go, but you live here, and we want you certainly to please remind people around you of what the challenges are that India is facing.”

In a press release, the Indian Consulate confirmed the delegation’s engagement with think tanks, academic institutions, and the media in New York. The statement said the delegation highlighted the importance of strategic ties between India and the United States and emphasized collaborative global action against terrorism.

The delegation includes Shambhavi Chaudhary (Lok Janshakti Party), Sarfaraz Ahmed (Jharkhand Mukti Morcha), G M Harish Balayagi (Telugu Desam Party), Shashank Mani Tripathi, Tejaswi Surya, Bhubaneswar K Lata (all from BJP), Mallikarjun Devda (Shiv Sena), and former Indian Ambassador to the US Taranjit Singh Sandhu. Their unified message underscores India’s bipartisan consensus in the fight against terror.

Upon arriving in the U.S. on May 25, the delegation visited the 9/11 Memorial, accompanied by India’s Ambassador to the U.S., Vinay Mohan Kwatra. At the site, they paid tribute by offering white roses and folding their hands in a gesture of respect.

Reflecting on the visit, Tharoor said at the Indian Consulate, “It was obviously a very moving moment for us, but it was also meant to send a very strong message that we are here in a city which is bearing still the scars of that savage terrorist attack in the wake of yet another terrorist attack in our own country.” He continued, “We came both as a reminder that this is a shared problem, but also out of a spirit of solidarity with the victims… It’s a global problem, it’s a scourge and we must all fight it unitedly.”

The 9/11 Memorial honors the 2,977 victims of the September 11, 2001 attacks at the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, and near Shanksville, Pennsylvania, as well as the six individuals killed in the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center. Spanning eight acres within the 16-acre complex, the Memorial provides a space for reflection amid the hustle of lower Manhattan.

After their visit to the United States, the delegation will continue to Guyana, Panama, Brazil, and Colombia to further amplify India’s position against terrorism. This diplomatic mission includes a total of seven groups, each comprising eight to nine members from across the Indian political spectrum. Their task is to present India’s unified stance and detail Operation Sindoor to international counterparts.

Operation Sindoor, initiated on May 7, was a military response to the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, which resulted in the deaths of 26 individuals. The Indian government has reported that the operation targeted terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir, killing over 100 terrorists affiliated with groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Hizbul Mujahideen.

Following India’s strike, Pakistan launched retaliatory attacks including cross-border shelling and attempted drone incursions. In response, India undertook a coordinated counter-offensive that damaged radar systems, communication hubs, and airfields across 11 Pakistani airbases. A mutual agreement to cease hostilities was announced on May 10.

Through this high-level diplomatic outreach, India seeks to convey that it is unwavering in its fight against terrorism and that any threats to its sovereignty will be met with decisive action and international engagement.

India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which represents the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime, remained unchanged at 2.0 in 2021, mirroring the figure from the previous year, according to the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) report released by the Registrar General of India (RGI) on May 7.

The findings of the report show significant demographic patterns across Indian states and reveal trends such as the aging of the population and delays in the average age of marriage. Notably, Bihar stood out for having the highest fertility rate in the country at 3.0, while the national capital Delhi and the state of West Bengal reported the lowest fertility rates, both standing at 1.4.

The SRS report also noted a significant demographic shift over the past five decades. The share of India’s population within the 0-14 age bracket has steadily declined from 41.2% in 1971 to 24.8% in 2021. Conversely, the proportion of the working-age population, defined as those between 15 to 59 years, has grown markedly during the same period. “Proportion of the economically active population between 15-59 years has increased from 53.4% to 66.2% during the same period,” the report stated.

India’s elderly population has also seen a notable increase. The share of the population aged 65 and above rose from 5.3% to 5.9%, and those aged 60 and above grew from 6% to 9% over the same time frame. These changes suggest the country is undergoing a demographic transition marked by an aging population and a shrinking youth cohort.

In this context, Kerala emerged as the state with the highest proportion of elderly people. According to the report, 14.4% of Kerala’s population is aged 60 and above. Tamil Nadu followed with 12.9%, and Himachal Pradesh with 12.3%. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Bihar had the smallest proportion of elderly citizens, with only 6.9% of its population being aged 60 or more. Assam and Delhi were also at the lower end, with 7% and 7.1% respectively in this age group.

In terms of social changes, the report documented a considerable increase in the average age at which women are getting married. It found that the mean age at effective marriage for females has gone up from 19.3 years in 1990 to 22.5 years in 2021. This shift suggests improvements in women’s education, employment opportunities, and growing awareness about reproductive health and family planning.

With the national census typically conducted every ten years, the SRS plays a vital role in filling the information gap in the interim. It stands as the largest demographic survey in India and is tasked with providing annual estimates of fertility and mortality statistics at both state and national levels. For this particular edition of the survey, data was collected from 8,842 sample units spread across all Indian states, encompassing approximately 84 lakh people.

While presenting the interim budget for 2024, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had announced the establishment of a high-level committee to explore the challenges associated with “fast population growth and demographic changes.” This statement seemed to imply that the country was still experiencing a rapid rise in population. However, the data from the SRS paints a more nuanced picture, indicating that the population growth may not be as steep as previously assumed. As the Census—delayed since 2021—has not yet been conducted (the last one being in 2011), a fuller understanding of these trends is still awaited.

The report also highlights that India has achieved replacement-level fertility, a crucial demographic milestone where a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next. Replacement-level TFR is usually pegged at 2.1. This rate has now been reached or even fallen below in numerous states.

“It is noteworthy that the replacement level TFR, viz. 2.1, has been attained at the national level, along with Delhi 1.4, West Bengal 1.4, Tamil Nadu 1.5, Andhra Pradesh 1.5, Jammu and Kashmir 1.5, Kerala 1.5, Maharashtra 1.5, Punjab 1.5, Himachal Pradesh 1.6, Telangana 1.6, Karnataka 1.6, Odisha 1.8, Uttarakhand 1.8, Gujarat 2.0, Haryana 2.0 and Assam 2.1,” the report stated.

The implications of these findings are multifold. On the one hand, a lower TFR aligns with aspirations for a smaller and more manageable population, which can reduce stress on resources and infrastructure. On the other hand, continued declines in fertility—especially below the replacement level—can pose long-term challenges, such as labor shortages and increasing dependency ratios due to a growing elderly population.

States like Bihar, with a TFR still significantly above replacement level, may need to focus on educational and reproductive health initiatives, while others with below-replacement rates may eventually confront issues tied to workforce shrinkage and elderly care.

Furthermore, the variations in elderly population proportions across states point to uneven aging processes in the country. States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, with larger elderly populations, may face increased demand for healthcare services, age-friendly infrastructure, and social security programs. In contrast, states like Bihar and Assam, which still have a relatively young demographic, might focus more on education, job creation, and economic development.

Meanwhile, the rising mean age at marriage for females highlights evolving social norms and potentially positive trends in gender equality. Delaying marriage often correlates with better health outcomes for both mothers and children, as well as greater female participation in higher education and the labor market.

In conclusion, the latest SRS data underscores that India’s population dynamics are undergoing a significant transformation. While the overall fertility rate remains stable, the country is seeing a demographic shift characterized by declining youth populations, growing working-age groups, and an expanding elderly segment. These findings suggest that population-related policy planning will need to be tailored to the unique challenges and opportunities facing each state. The upcoming national census, whenever it occurs, will be critical in providing a complete and updated picture of these ongoing changes.

Rahul Gandhi, India’s Leader of Opposition, is scheduled to undertake a two-day trip to the United States starting April 21. This visit will include a series of engagements focused on academic interaction and community outreach, especially with the Indian diaspora in the U.S.

During his visit, Gandhi will be heading to Rhode Island, where he will participate in a key event at Brown University. He is expected to take part in a session titled “A Conversation with Rahul Gandhi” at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs. This event is being organized by the Saxena Center for Contemporary South Asia and is slated to be held on April 21. As part of this academic exchange, Gandhi will also interact with Brown University’s faculty members and students, providing them with insights into Indian politics and governance from the perspective of the opposition.

Aside from the university session, the Congress leader will also meet with members of the Indian-American community during his U.S. visit. These meetings are expected to include interactions with non-resident Indians as well as representatives of the Indian Overseas Congress, which functions as the international arm of the Indian National Congress party. The Indian Overseas Congress plays an important role in engaging with the global Indian diaspora and promoting the Congress party’s ideology abroad.

Pawan Khera, the chairman of the Congress party’s media and publicity department, confirmed the details of Gandhi’s itinerary through a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. In his post, Khera stated, “Former Congress president Rahul Gandhi will be visiting Brown University, in Rhode Island, United States, on the 21st and 22nd of April. He will be giving a talk and interacting with faculty members and students.”

This upcoming trip marks Gandhi’s second visit to the United States in the span of a few months. His previous U.S. tour took place in September 2024, during which he addressed faculty and students at the University of Texas. That visit also included meetings with various Indian diaspora groups in Texas and the nation’s capital, Washington, D.C. These interactions have become part of Gandhi’s broader efforts to connect with Indians abroad and present his party’s vision on international platforms.

In addition to the University of Texas, Gandhi has delivered speeches and participated in dialogues at several renowned international academic institutions. These include appearances at Harvard University, the University of Cambridge, and Stanford University. Through these engagements, he has sought to present his thoughts on democracy, economic development, and the social challenges facing India. His academic outreach is viewed as part of a broader attempt to rebrand his political persona and expand his influence beyond Indian borders.

Brown University, where Gandhi is scheduled to speak during his upcoming visit, is one of the oldest and most prestigious universities in the United States. Founded in 1764, the Ivy League institution has a long-standing reputation for academic excellence and political engagement. Over the years, it has hosted a variety of global political leaders and public intellectuals, serving as a platform for high-level discussions on international affairs.

The event titled “A Conversation with Rahul Gandhi” is expected to draw significant attention from students, faculty, and members of the South Asian community in the region. With the growing interest in India’s political dynamics ahead of the next general elections, Gandhi’s thoughts on current national issues are likely to be closely followed. His appearance at Brown University is anticipated to provide him an opportunity to articulate his vision for India and present his critique of the current government in a global forum.

This kind of academic interaction is not new for Gandhi, who has made it a point to include such discussions during his international visits. These engagements often allow him to explain the Congress party’s stance on matters ranging from economic policy to social justice, and to underline the importance of democratic institutions in India. They also provide him with a space to address questions and criticisms in a relatively open and intellectually oriented environment.

In addition to addressing academic audiences, Gandhi’s outreach to the Indian-American community has also been a consistent part of his international itinerary. The Indian diaspora in the United States has played an increasingly influential role in shaping political perceptions and promoting bilateral ties between the two nations. Engaging with these communities allows Gandhi to build networks of support and understanding that can be strategically valuable, especially as India continues to play a larger role in global affairs.

The Indian Overseas Congress, which coordinates many of these diaspora engagements, has been instrumental in organizing meetings and forums for Gandhi during his visits. These interactions often serve dual purposes: strengthening the Congress party’s presence among overseas Indians and allowing Gandhi to gauge the concerns and expectations of expatriate communities. Such dialogues can also be an opportunity to correct misconceptions and present the Congress’s political agenda directly to a global Indian audience.

Gandhi’s recent travels to foreign universities and diaspora hubs highlight a broader strategy by the Congress party to rebuild its image and international credibility. In contrast to the more centralized and nationalistic messaging of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Congress leader has often emphasized themes of democratic resilience, inclusivity, and global cooperation in his foreign engagements.

While the impact of such visits on domestic electoral politics may be limited, they do contribute to shaping global narratives about India and its leadership. Gandhi’s appearances on international stages are covered widely by both Indian and global media, influencing how Indian politics is perceived abroad.

His choice of Brown University for his next academic appearance fits into this pattern of aligning with reputed institutions that foster open discussion. As he prepares for the event and subsequent interactions, both his supporters and critics will be watching closely to see how effectively he uses the platform to project his political philosophy and connect with younger, globally-minded audiences.

With India set to enter another election cycle in the near future, Gandhi’s overseas engagements, including his forthcoming U.S. visit, are likely to be viewed through both diplomatic and political lenses. They reflect a continuing effort by the Congress leader to maintain visibility, build international rapport, and strengthen ties with communities that can indirectly influence India’s external image and internal discourse.

In summary, Rahul Gandhi’s two-day visit to the United States on April 21 and 22 includes a major speaking engagement at Brown University in Rhode Island, along with meetings with Indian-American community members and Congress party affiliates. As Pawan Khera noted, “Former Congress president Rahul Gandhi will be visiting Brown University, in Rhode Island, United States, on the 21st and 22nd of April. He will be giving a talk and interacting with faculty members and students.” This marks another chapter in Gandhi’s continued effort to blend academic dialogue, community interaction, and international outreach as he seeks to play a leading role in shaping India’s political future.

Despite global economic uncertainties, India is set to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028, according to Morgan Stanley’s latest report. The country’s share in global production is increasing, driven by macroeconomic stability, policy measures, and enhanced infrastructure. India is projected to surpass Germany’s GDP to secure the third position in the global economic rankings.

By 2026, the Indian economy is expected to grow to $4.7 trillion, placing it as the fourth-largest economy after the U.S., China, and Germany. By 2028, India will surpass Germany with an estimated GDP of $5.7 trillion.

Morgan Stanley’s data traces India’s economic progress over the decades. In 1990, India was the 12th-largest economy in the world, slipping to 13th place in 2000. However, it climbed back to ninth position by 2020 and then further to fifth place by 2023. The report projects India’s share in global GDP to increase from 3.5% in 2023 to 4.5% by 2029.

Three Possible Economic Growth Scenarios

Morgan Stanley outlined three possible growth trajectories for India’s economy:

1. Bear Scenario – The economy expands from $3.65 trillion in 2025 to $6.6 trillion by 2035.
2. Base Scenario – India’s GDP grows to $8.8 trillion by 2035.
3. Bull Scenario – The country’s economy could reach $10.3 trillion by 2035.

GDP per capita is also expected to rise significantly across these scenarios. By 2035, under the Bear scenario, it could reach $4,247, while in the Base scenario, it may increase to $5,683. Under the Bull scenario, GDP per capita could rise as high as $6,706.

India’s Growing Global Economic Influence

The report emphasized that India is gaining prominence in the global economy due to strong foundational factors. “India is likely gaining share in global output in the coming decades driven by strong foundational factors, including robust population growth, a functioning democracy, macro stability influenced policy, better infrastructure, a rising entrepreneurial class and improving social outcomes,” Morgan Stanley stated.

The report further highlighted India’s growing attractiveness as a key consumer market. “The implication is that India will be the world’s most sought-after consumer market, it will undergo a major energy transition, credit to GDP will rise and manufacturing could gain share in GDP,” it noted.

Economic Growth on the Path to Recovery

According to Morgan Stanley, India’s economic growth is already showing signs of recovery. “High-frequency indicators were mixed in recent weeks but are distinctly better than a couple of months ago. We expect growth to recover after a 2H24 (second half of 2024) slowdown on fiscal and monetary policy support, with recovery in service exports,” the report said.

For the financial year ending March 31, 2025 (FY2024-25), India’s GDP is expected to grow at a rate of 6.3%, rising to 6.5% in the following fiscal year.

“Macro-stability should remain in the comfort range, providing flexibility to policymakers,” the report noted. The recovery in consumption is projected to become more widespread, aided by income tax cuts that are expected to boost urban demand, while rural consumption levels remain strong.

Public and Household Capital Expenditure to Drive Growth

Investments are expected to play a crucial role in India’s economic expansion. According to Morgan Stanley, public and household capital expenditure (capex) will be the primary drivers of growth, while private corporate investments are anticipated to recover at a gradual pace.

Additionally, the strength in services exports is expected to have a positive impact on the labor market. This, combined with moderating inflation, is likely to improve overall purchasing power.

Domestic demand, supported by policy initiatives on both the monetary and fiscal fronts, is projected to be a key contributor to economic expansion.

Inflation Expected to Stabilize at 4.3% by FY27

Inflation has shown signs of cooling, with headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation decreasing from its recent peak, now hovering near 4%. This decline is primarily attributed to falling food prices. Core inflation has remained stable, contributing to overall economic stability.

Morgan Stanley expects inflation to reach 4.3% in FY2026-27, down from an estimated 4.9% in FY2025. The outlook for inflation remains contingent on food prices, which account for 46% of the CPI basket and are expected to soften further in the coming months.

Current Account Deficit Remains Under Control

Despite weak global demand affecting goods exports, India’s strong service exports are helping to balance its trade position. As a result, Morgan Stanley expects the country’s current account deficit to remain below 1% of GDP in FY2025-27, ensuring continued stability in India’s external balance sheet.

Possible Rate Cut by RBI in April

On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been easing policies across multiple areas, including interest rates, liquidity measures, and regulatory changes. In February, the RBI initiated a rate-cutting cycle, and Morgan Stanley anticipates another 25 basis points (bps) reduction in April.

Fiscal Strategy: Encouraging Consumption and Capital Expenditure

India’s fiscal policies aim to sustain economic recovery by boosting consumption through income tax cuts and prioritizing capital expenditure (capex). At the same time, the government is maintaining macroeconomic stability by ensuring fiscal discipline.

Global Risks: Trade Wars, U.S. Federal Reserve, and Market Conditions

While India’s economic trajectory appears strong, risks remain, particularly from external factors. “We closely monitor developments on trade and tariff policies by the US government, alongside the strength in the dollar, Fed’s reaction function and global growth and financial conditions,” Morgan Stanley stated.

Domestically, the report warned of potential risks, including excessive government spending at the state level or shifts in policy that could undermine macroeconomic stability.

The most critical factor influencing India’s growth trajectory will be global conditions, including U.S. economic policies and worldwide growth trends.