Tag: Newsletter

Goldman Sachs has taken a significantly more negative stance on the U.S. economy and stock market due to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. The firm now joins a growing number of economists warning that the ongoing trade war could push the U.S. into a recession and cause further trouble for stock market investors.

Goldman Sachs economists, led by Ronnie Walker, have adjusted their forecast to anticipate a 15% average tariff rate on all goods this year. This revision came in a Sunday note to clients and reflects Trump’s latest aggressive stance ahead of his scheduled “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on Wednesday. The president has indicated that he intends to impose even steeper tariffs than originally planned.

As a result, Goldman’s economic outlook has become more bearish. The firm has raised its probability of a U.S. recession within the next year from 20% to 35%. Additionally, Goldman economists have revised several key projections. Their end-of-2025 inflation estimate has been increased to 3.5%, up from 2.8% just last month. Their unemployment forecast now stands at 4.5%, which would be the highest since October 2021. Meanwhile, the firm expects gross domestic product (GDP) growth to slow to 1%, the lowest level since 2020.

Stock market expectations have also been downgraded in response to these economic concerns. Goldman strategists, led by David Kostin, warned clients that they expect the S&P 500 index to decline by 5% over the next three months. They have set a price target of 5,300 for the index in that time frame. Over the next year, they project the S&P 500 will rise by only 6%, setting a new year-ahead target of 5,900. This marks a substantial downward revision from Goldman’s previous forecast of 6,500, which was issued as recently as February 28. The nearly 10% cut in expectations reflects the increasing uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies.

Big Number

6.3%—That is how much the S&P 500 declined in March through Friday’s close, putting it on track for its worst month since September 2022. This figure does not even account for an additional drop of more than 1% in premarket trading on Monday.

Key Background

On Sunday, Trump announced that he plans to impose “substantial” import taxes on “all countries” through his new reciprocal tariff policy. This marks a shift from his position just a week earlier, when he suggested that the upcoming tariffs would be “more lenient.”

Trump’s top economic official, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, has acknowledged that a recession is possible but has argued that any downturn would be due to unsustainable economic growth fueled by excessive government spending and imbalanced trade relationships. However, some economists have cautioned that Trump’s policies could push the U.S. into an avoidable recession. UCLA Anderson School of Management economist Clement Bohr issued a stark warning to Trump earlier this month: “If all your wishes come true, you could very well be the author of a deep recession.”

The financial markets are particularly concerned about the potential inflationary effects of tariffs. Higher tariffs typically lead to higher prices for imported goods, which could drive overall inflation upward. Persistent inflation, in turn, might force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its plans for further interest rate cuts. If the Fed decides to keep rates high to combat inflation, borrowing costs would remain elevated, potentially hurting corporate profit margins and weakening consumer demand.

Trump’s trade policies have been a point of contention among economists and investors alike. While he has long argued that tariffs will protect American industries and create jobs, critics say that the economic consequences—including higher costs for businesses and consumers—outweigh any potential benefits. Goldman’s latest forecast suggests that these concerns are becoming more widely accepted on Wall Street.

The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policy has already taken a toll on the stock market. The S&P 500’s steep decline in March suggests that investors are increasingly worried about the economic outlook. Should Trump move forward with his plans for aggressive tariffs, market volatility could continue in the coming months.

Goldman Sachs is not alone in its pessimism. Other major financial institutions have also sounded alarms about the potential economic impact of Trump’s trade policies. Many analysts believe that if tariffs remain in place or are expanded further, the risks of a prolonged economic slowdown will increase.

While the White House has maintained that tariffs will ultimately benefit the economy by reducing reliance on foreign goods, the short-term consequences appear to be negative. Businesses that rely on imported materials are already facing higher costs, and many have signaled that they will pass these costs on to consumers. This could exacerbate inflationary pressures at a time when the Federal Reserve is trying to bring inflation under control.

The bond market has also reacted to these developments, with yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds rising in response to inflation concerns. Higher bond yields can lead to tighter financial conditions, further slowing economic growth.

As uncertainty looms, investors will be closely watching Trump’s official announcement on Wednesday to see if his latest tariff proposals will be as severe as he has suggested. If the tariffs are implemented as planned, further market turbulence could follow.

For now, Goldman Sachs’ downgrade serves as a stark reminder of the risks facing the U.S. economy. The firm’s decision to cut its stock market targets and raise its recession probability reflects growing concerns that Trump’s trade policies could have unintended economic consequences. With inflation, unemployment, and GDP growth all expected to worsen, the outlook for the economy remains uncertain.

In the weeks ahead, economic data and corporate earnings reports will provide further insight into how businesses and consumers are responding to these policy changes. If inflation continues to rise and economic growth slows further, the Fed may have to reconsider its monetary policy stance, which could add another layer of complexity to an already volatile market environment.

Ultimately, the extent to which Trump’s tariffs impact the economy will depend on how businesses, consumers, and policymakers respond. If companies find ways to absorb higher costs without passing them on to consumers, the inflationary impact could be limited. However, if prices rise significantly, the Fed may have no choice but to keep interest rates high, potentially leading to a broader economic slowdown.

In the meantime, investors should brace for continued uncertainty. Goldman Sachs’ revised forecast suggests that market conditions could remain challenging in the near term. While long-term economic fundamentals remain strong, the immediate risks posed by Trump’s trade policies cannot be ignored.

With the S&P 500 already experiencing its worst month since 2022, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the market can stabilize or if further declines are ahead. The outcome of Trump’s tariff policy will likely play a key role in shaping economic and market trends for the remainder of the year.

As always, market participants will be watching closely to see how the administration’s policies evolve and whether additional economic measures are introduced to counteract potential negative effects. For now, Goldman Sachs’ latest predictions underscore the uncertainty and risks facing the U.S. economy in 2025.

Tech billionaire Elon Musk announced on Thursday that he will step down from his position in the Donald Trump administration at the end of May after overseeing a $1 trillion reduction in the U.S. deficit. Musk, who was appointed as a “special government employee” for a 130-day term, has led cost-cutting initiatives as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Musk Calls It a ‘Revolution in Government’

In an interview with Fox News, Musk described his tenure as a historic transformation in federal spending.

“This is a revolution, possibly the biggest in government since the original revolution,” Musk said. “In the end, America will be in a much stronger position, with a fantastic future ahead.”

Musk, 53, who also heads Tesla and SpaceX and owns social media platform X, has received both praise and criticism for his aggressive cost-cutting strategies. Under DOGE, an agency composed of engineers and entrepreneurs, tens of thousands of federal employees have been laid off, and funding for multiple programs has been slashed.

Musk Confirms 130-Day Term Limit

When asked if he would extend his tenure, Musk stated that he believes his objectives will be largely completed by then.

“I think we will have accomplished the majority of what’s needed to cut the deficit by $1 trillion within that timeframe,” he said.

According to DOGE’s website, as of March 27, the agency has saved American taxpayers approximately $130 billion, equating to about $807 per person.

Eliminating Waste and Fraud: A 15% Cut is ‘Achievable’

Musk and his seven-member DOGE team—including Steve Davis, Joe Gebbia, Aram Moghaddassi, Brad Smith, Anthony Armstrong, Tom Krause, and Tyler Hassen—have focused on reducing government inefficiencies.

“Our goal is to cut spending by eliminating waste and fraud, aiming for a 15% reduction, which seems entirely realistic,” Musk told Fox News’ Bret Baier.

“The government operates inefficiently, with significant waste and fraud. We are confident that a 15% cut can be achieved without impacting critical services.”

Federal Credit Card Oversight: ‘This Doesn’t Make Sense’

A key area of DOGE’s focus has been federal credit card usage. DOGE member Steve Davis pointed out that there are around 4.6 million government-issued credit cards for an estimated 2.3 to 2.4 million employees.

“This doesn’t add up,” Davis said. “We’ve asked agencies whether they actually need all these cards, if they are being used, and if they can physically account for them.”

Musk called the situation absurd.

“There shouldn’t be more government credit cards than there are employees,” he said.

Criticism Over Lack of Oversight

Despite the administration’s claims of efficiency, critics argue that DOGE wields too much authority with insufficient oversight. Opponents allege that Musk’s team has unilaterally canceled federal contracts and implemented budget cuts without congressional approval.

Musk dismissed these concerns, insisting that his team takes a meticulous approach to decision-making.

“Some may say we’re making impulsive cuts, but that’s far from the truth,” Musk said. “We double-check, even triple-check, before making a decision.”

He also acknowledged that mistakes can happen.

“That’s not to say we don’t make errors. Expecting a flawless approach is like demanding a baseball player to bat a thousand—it’s impossible. When we make mistakes, we correct them quickly and move forward.”

President Donald Trump has intensified his criticism of federal judges who have blocked his administration’s policies, portraying them as threats to the nation and urging the Supreme Court to intervene.

In a Truth Social post on Thursday, Trump lashed out at judges who issued nationwide injunctions against his executive actions, calling them “radical left judges” and “lunatics” attempting to “assume the Powers of the Presidency, without having to attain 80 Million Votes.” (Trump won the 2024 election with 77 million votes, and federal judges are appointed, not elected.)

“STOP NATIONWIDE INJUNCTIONS NOW, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” Trump wrote, directly appealing to Chief Justice John Roberts. “If Justice Roberts and the United States Supreme Court do not fix this toxic and unprecedented situation IMMEDIATELY, our Country is in very serious trouble!”

The following morning, Trump reiterated his claims on Truth Social, again accusing federal judges of trying to take over presidential duties.

Trump’s administration has faced more than 100 lawsuits challenging his policies, with the former president arguing that nationwide injunctions have been unfairly used to block his agenda. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt accused these judges of acting as “partisan activists” in remarks to reporters on Wednesday.

“They are trying to dictate policy from the president of the United States,” Leavitt said. “They are trying to clearly slow-walk this administration’s agenda, and it’s unacceptable.”

Both Republican and Democratic administrations have encountered nationwide injunctions, but Trump and his supporters claim that he has faced an unprecedented number. According to the Harvard Law Review, Trump’s first term saw 64 nationwide injunctions—far more than any president since 2001.

However, Trump has exercised executive power in ways that previous presidents have not, and in his second term, he has aggressively pushed to expand the scope of his authority. As political analyst Steve Benen noted, Trump and his allies are framing judicial opposition as part of a broad conspiracy rather than acknowledging that his actions may be legally questionable.

Trump and billionaire Elon Musk have also called for judges who rule against the administration to be impeached. This prompted a rare public response from Chief Justice Roberts, who stated, “Impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreement concerning a judicial decision.”

The Justice Department is currently awaiting a Supreme Court ruling on its request to narrow the reach of several judicial orders blocking Trump’s birthright citizenship executive order. However, as The Associated Press noted, the court does not appear to be rushing its decision.

President Donald Trump is facing significant disapproval across multiple issues, with a Fox News host stating Thursday that he is “underwater on everything” when it comes to his approval ratings.

Jessica Tarlov cited a new Quinnipiac poll released this week, which found that 53% of voters disapprove of Trump’s performance during his second term. Voters were surveyed on various topics, including trade policies with China and Canada, immigration, foreign relations, military affairs, the economy, and the federal workforce.

Since the start of his second term, the stock market has been experiencing a downturn, thousands of federal workers have lost their jobs, and Trump has created tension with some of the country’s strongest trade partners.

“The Democratic messaging actually has been going pretty well,” Tarlov said on Fox News’ The Five, despite a separate poll indicating that Democrats have struggled to respond effectively to Trump’s policies. She noted that Democrats have been emphasizing, “They’re trying to cut your healthcare while giving tax breaks to the rich.”

“There’s over 50% disapproval of Trump himself, how he’s handling the economy, how he’s handling the federal workforce, how he’s handling Ukraine-Russia, how he’s handling trade with Mexico, how he’s handling trade with Canada,” Tarlov added. “So basically, he’s underwater on everything.”

Trump’s approval ratings had already been struggling before his joint session of Congress address on March 4. Another Quinnipiac poll from last month showed that 45% of voters approved of his performance, while 49% disapproved.

A CNN poll released this week reported similar findings, with 54% of voters disapproving of Trump’s performance compared to 45% who approved. Additionally, a Reuters poll found that many voters viewed Trump’s economic policies as too “erratic.”

Tarlov attributed part of Trump’s declining approval ratings to recent town halls held by both Democratic and Republican congressional members. These events have drawn large crowds seeking clarification on the Trump administration’s policies, particularly regarding federal workforce reductions.

On the Republican side, social media footage has captured GOP lawmakers facing backlash for supporting the Department of Government Efficiency, which is overseeing these workforce cuts.

“And we know about the Republicans having town halls and then having to run away or asking questions like, ‘What do you think of DOGE?’ and expecting people to say something positive and then they are screaming,” Tarlov said.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has suggested, without evidence, that some of the outraged town hall attendees are “paid actors.”

This week, North Carolina Republican Representative Chuck Edwards faced an intense confrontation with constituents demanding explanations for his support of cuts to the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. He was met with boos and was eventually escorted out of the meeting.

President Donald Trump’s administration on Tuesday began declassifying all government files related to the 1963 assassination of President John F. Kennedy, making potentially tens of thousands of unredacted pages available to the public for the first time.

This release follows Trump’s executive order, signed on his first day in office in January, directing the full disclosure of government documents concerning the assassinations of Kennedy, his brother and presidential candidate Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, D-N.Y., and civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr.

The specific contents of these newly available documents, and whether they contain any previously undisclosed information, remain unclear. Historians noted they would need time to analyze the files to determine whether they offer any significant new insights.

Thus far, the documents have not altered the longstanding conclusion that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone in assassinating Kennedy on Nov. 22, 1963, as the president rode in a Dallas motorcade.

Public Access to the JFK Files

The newly released JFK files can be accessed on the National Archives’ website. Most are scanned documents, some of which have faded or become difficult to read over time. The collection also includes photographs and sound recordings, predominantly from the 1960s.

Report from Russia: Oswald’s Poor Marksmanship

One document dated Nov. 20, 1991, appears to summarize U.S. intelligence findings on Lee Harvey Oswald, detailing his time in the Soviet Union, his tumultuous marriage to his Soviet wife, and his reportedly poor shooting skills.

According to the document, KGB official Nikonov reviewed Soviet security service files to determine if Oswald had ever been a KGB agent.

“Nikonov is now confident that Oswald was at no time an agent controlled by the KGB,” the document states.

The report, citing American professor E.B. Smith, describes how Nikonov examined five extensive files on Oswald and doubted that anyone could control him. However, the KGB reportedly monitored him closely while he was in the USSR.

The files also document Oswald’s troubled relationship with his wife and suggest that his marksmanship was subpar. “The KGB files reflected that Oswald was a poor shot when he tried target firing in the USSR,” the document notes.

Some conspiracy theorists have pointed to inconsistencies in Oswald’s behavioral records in CIA files, arguing that they support theories suggesting he did not act alone or was not involved in Kennedy’s assassination.

References to Conspiracy Theories in the Files

The newly disclosed documents reference conspiracy theories suggesting that Oswald left the Soviet Union in 1962 with the intent to assassinate Kennedy.

Documents from the Department of Defense, dated 1963, focus on Cold War tensions and U.S. efforts to counter Cuban leader Fidel Castro’s support for communist movements in Latin America.

The records suggest Castro was unlikely to instigate a war with the U.S. but might “intensify his support of subversive forces in Latin America.”

Experts’ Initial Reactions

James Johnston, author of Murder, Inc.: The CIA under John F. Kennedy, told USA Today that he did not expect any major revelations, given that the CIA and other agencies had already transferred their records to the National Archives in 1988.

“If it was going to embarrass the agency or tell a different story, they wouldn’t have turned them over to the National Archives in the first place,” said Johnston, who was a congressional investigator on the 1975 Church Committee, which examined CIA activities.

Johnston cited one notable document missing from the release: a transcript of the first conversation between President Lyndon Johnson and CIA Director John McCone after Kennedy’s assassination.

McCone had long been suspected of withholding information from the Warren Commission, the investigative panel established by Johnson. According to Philip Shenon, author of A Cruel and Shocking Act: The Secret History of the Kennedy Assassination, McCone initially pledged full cooperation but later withheld certain details.

McCone testified that the CIA had no evidence linking Oswald to any conspiracy, foreign or domestic. His testimony aligned with the Warren Commission’s conclusion that Oswald, a former Marine and self-proclaimed Marxist, acted alone.

Years later, however, the CIA acknowledged that McCone had not been entirely forthcoming with the Warren Commission.

The Warren Commission’s Findings

Several of the newly released documents pertain to the Warren Commission, which was created by President Johnson to investigate Kennedy’s assassination.

The commission concluded that Oswald, who was arrested but later killed by nightclub owner Jack Ruby on live television, acted alone. However, Kennedy’s assassination has remained the subject of intense debate, with numerous theories challenging the official findings. Polls have consistently shown that many Americans believe the assassination was part of a broader conspiracy.

Trump’s Push for ‘Maximum Transparency’

Trump did not immediately comment on the document release, but Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard praised the move, calling it part of Trump’s pledge for “maximum transparency and a commitment to rebuild the trust of the American people in the Intelligence Community.”

For years, critics have accused the intelligence community, particularly the CIA, of withholding key information about Kennedy’s assassination. However, intelligence officials have insisted that all essential files have already been released and that any remaining redactions were necessary to protect intelligence sources and methods.

Gabbard stated that she issued a directive following Trump’s announcement, instructing all intelligence agencies to provide unredacted records for immediate public release.

Digital Release and Remaining Files

The newly released documents were made public just before 7 p.m. Tuesday. The National Archives and Records Administration, which manages the files, issued a statement confirming that all records previously withheld for classification were now released in accordance with Trump’s directive.

The National Archives noted that while some files are available online, others can only be accessed in person at the National Archives facility in College Park, Maryland.

“As the records continue to be digitized, they will be posted to this page,” the statement read, indicating that some documents are not yet available in digital form.

The agency also noted that certain information remains restricted under court seals or grand jury secrecy laws, while tax return records are protected under federal regulations.

Public Anticipation and Reaction

The document release followed Trump’s visit to the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, where he now serves as board chairman.

“People have been waiting for decades for this,” Trump told reporters. “We have a tremendous amount of paper. You’ve got a lot of reading. I don’t believe we’re going to redact anything.”

The CIA and FBI, both of which played roles in JFK assassination investigations, declined immediate comment.

Expert Analysis on the Newly Released Files

JFK scholar Jefferson Morley called the release “an encouraging start.”

“We now have complete versions of approximately a third of the redacted JFK documents held by the National Archives,” said Morley, vice president of the Mary Ferrell Foundation, a nonprofit organization that advocates for historical government transparency.

He added that seven out of ten JFK files sought by researchers are now fully public, providing new insights into Kennedy’s distrust of the CIA, attempts to assassinate Castro, surveillance of Oswald in Mexico City, and CIA propaganda efforts involving Oswald.

However, Morley noted that two-thirds of the promised files remain unreleased, including over 500 IRS records and 2,400 recently discovered FBI documents.

“Nonetheless, this is the most positive news on the declassification of JFK files since the 1990s,” Morley said.

The Justice Department’s Effort to Meet Trump’s Deadline

Trump’s order reportedly triggered a rush within the Justice Department to meet his deadline. ABC News and Reuters reported that a senior official in the DOJ’s Office of Intelligence sent an internal email just before 5 p.m. Monday, instructing attorneys to conduct a final review of the documents.

The push for full declassification began with Trump’s first executive order on Jan. 20, when he directed agencies to release files related to the assassinations of Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy, and Martin Luther King Jr.

FBI Unveils Additional 2,400 JFK Records

Last month, the FBI announced the discovery of approximately 2,400 additional records connected to Kennedy’s assassination. These files are in the process of being transferred to the National Archives, but their contents remain unclear.

While previous investigations found no evidence of a government conspiracy, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s Secretary of Health and Human Services, has advocated for releasing the files to examine whether U.S. officials were involved in a cover-up.

The National Archives continues to review and release documents in compliance with Trump’s directive.

A global watchdog organization has placed the United States on a list of countries experiencing “faltering civic freedoms” following concerns over President Donald Trump’s recent actions and policies.

CIVICUS, a nonprofit that advocates for democracy and human rights, included the U.S. in its first watchlist of the year on Monday. The organization noted that America, previously regarded as “a global champion for democracy and human rights,” has drawn scrutiny due to Trump’s efforts to reshape the federal government to align with his vision while distancing the U.S. from global affairs.

The United States is now listed among 37 other nations, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Chile, and Slovakia, under the category of countries with “narrowed” civic freedoms.

“This is an unparalleled attack on the rule of law in the United States, not seen since the days of McCarthyism in the twentieth century,” said Mandeep Tiwana, the interim co-secretary-general of CIVICUS, in a statement.

Tiwana further elaborated, saying, “Restrictive executive orders, unjustifiable institutional cutbacks, and intimidation tactics through threatening pronouncements by senior officials in the administration are creating an atmosphere to chill democratic dissent, a cherished American ideal.”

The “narrowed” designation by CIVICUS signifies that while people in these countries can still exercise civil liberties, violations of these rights occur periodically. This is the second-highest rating level, following the “open” category.

One of the primary concerns cited by the organization is Trump’s decision to dismiss large numbers of federal employees and replace them with individuals who demonstrate unwavering loyalty to him, a move that CIVICUS warns could “severely impact constitutional freedoms.”

Trump has deliberately chosen appointees based on their personal allegiance to him rather than their qualifications or expertise.

Among those involved in restructuring the government is billionaire Elon Musk, who, despite lacking an official title, has served as a “special government employee.” Musk has played a role in identifying areas within the federal workforce for reduction, seeking to eliminate what the administration views as inefficient or wasteful expenditures.

This initiative has led to significant changes within key government agencies. The U.S. Agency for International Development has been stripped of much of its authority to provide humanitarian aid and assistance, while the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has seen a reduction in its ability to regulate and enforce protections against fraud and unfair business practices.

Additionally, Trump has employed executive orders to consolidate power within the executive branch, thereby increasing his administration’s ability to oversee and control federal agencies, ensuring they align with his policy priorities.

These measures have included halting all diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, suppressing pro-Palestinian student demonstrations, and promoting policies that reflect his administration’s ideological stance.

“The Trump administration seems hellbent on dismantling the system of checks and balances, which are the pillars of a democratic society,” Tiwana warned in the CIVICUS statement.

Monday’s designation is not the first time the U.S. has been downgraded on the watchdog’s list. In 2020, CIVICUS lowered the country’s status to “obstructed” after determining that the Trump administration had repressed mass protests.

On Saturday, President Donald Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, asserting that the U.S. was under invasion by a Venezuelan gang. The law, originally designed for wartime, grants the president significant authority, enabling him to accelerate mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. This move signals a potential intensification of Trump’s immigration enforcement efforts.

Trump’s order specifically targets the Tren de Aragua gang, which he claims is operating as a hostile force under the Venezuelan government’s direction. “Over the years, Venezuelan national and local authorities have ceded ever-greater control over their territories to transnational criminal organizations, including TdA,” Trump stated, as reported by the Associated Press. He further argued, “The result is a hybrid criminal state that is perpetrating an invasion of and predatory incursion into the United States, and which poses a substantial danger to the United States.”

The declaration came on the same day that a federal judge in Washington blocked the administration from deporting five Venezuelans under the anticipated order, indicating potential legal resistance. Even before Trump’s official announcement, a federal judge had intervened to prevent these deportations using the Alien Enemies Act, signaling an immediate legal battle.

Legal Challenges and Court Rulings

Civil rights organizations, including the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and Democracy Forward, quickly filed an urgent lawsuit in Washington’s federal court. They argued that Trump’s order classified Tren de Aragua as a “predatory incursion” orchestrated by a foreign government, a move that could lead to indiscriminate deportations of Venezuelans.

DC Circuit Chief Judge James E. Boasberg issued a temporary restraining order, valid for 14 days, to shield five Venezuelans in immigration custody who were at risk of imminent deportation under the act. Boasberg’s ruling sought to preserve the current situation while scheduling a hearing to determine whether broader protections should be extended to all Venezuelans in the U.S.

The Trump administration swiftly challenged the restraining order, arguing that blocking presidential action before its execution would significantly hinder executive operations. The Justice Department warned that allowing such judicial interventions could enable district courts to obstruct crucial national security measures, including intelligence operations, drone strikes, or counterterrorism efforts. The administration urged the court to prevent such a precedent from taking hold.

What Is the Alien Enemies Act?

The Alien Enemies Act, part of the Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798, is a law designed for use during wartime or when the U.S. faces an imminent invasion threat from a foreign nation. It grants the president the authority to detain or deport foreign nationals from enemy countries during conflicts, with a particular focus on recent immigrants who might be perceived as aligning with U.S. adversaries.

When Was the Alien Enemies Act Last Used?

According to CNN, legal experts believe invoking the act outside of wartime—especially in response to threats from criminal gangs or cartels—would present legal challenges unless the U.S. were under direct attack by a foreign government.

The Alien Enemies Act has been invoked three times in U.S. history, each instance occurring during wartime. As noted by the Brennan Center, it was used during World War I and World War II to detain and deport individuals from Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Italy, and Japan. Additionally, the act played a central role in the internment of Japanese Americans during World War II, a highly controversial episode in U.S. history.

Presidential Powers Under the Alien Enemies Act

The act grants the president broad authority, including:

• Detention and Deportation: The president can detain or deport any male over the age of 14 from an enemy nation if they are deemed a potential threat.
• National Security Measures: The act provides a legal framework for mitigating risks posed by foreign nationals from hostile nations to protect U.S. interests.
• Restrictions on Movement and Property: The president can impose travel restrictions or require individuals to report regularly to authorities.
• Expedited Mass Deportations: The act allows the president to bypass certain immigration and criminal law protections, facilitating rapid deportations of individuals designated as threats.

Key Implications of Trump’s Order

1. Legal Challenges and Constitutional Concerns

Civil rights organizations, including the ACLU, have already initiated lawsuits, arguing that Trump’s order violates due process and immigrants’ legal rights. A federal judge’s temporary block on some deportations suggests a prolonged legal battle is ahead.

2. Targeting of Venezuelan Migrants

Trump has justified his order by focusing on the Tren de Aragua gang, alleging that it has connections to Venezuela’s government. However, this designation could impact thousands of Venezuelan migrants in the U.S., many of whom fled economic hardship and political repression.

3. Potential Diplomatic Fallout

Trump’s move may strain U.S.-Venezuela relations, particularly if deported individuals face persecution under President Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Maduro’s government has long been at odds with the U.S., and mass deportations could heighten tensions.

4. Uncertainty for Undocumented Immigrants

The order has created widespread fear and uncertainty among undocumented Venezuelan migrants, who now face the possibility of detention or deportation without standard legal protections.

5. Use of Detention Centers and International Transfers

The Trump administration has announced plans to relocate approximately 300 suspected gang members to detention facilities in El Salvador. This decision has drawn criticism from human rights groups concerned about the treatment of detainees in these facilities.

6. Broader Immigration Crackdown

Trump’s move signals his commitment to aggressively pursuing stricter immigration policies, potentially laying the groundwork for more expansive crackdowns if he secures a second term. The use of the Alien Enemies Act in this context raises concerns about its future application beyond Venezuelan migrants.

A Test for Executive Power

Trump’s decision to invoke the Alien Enemies Act marks a significant escalation in his immigration policy. While his administration argues that this move is necessary for national security, legal experts caution that using a wartime law to target migrant groups could face substantial constitutional hurdles.

The federal court’s intervention suggests that judicial challenges will continue to shape the fate of Trump’s order. The restraining order issued by Judge Boasberg may be just the first of many legal barriers Trump faces in implementing this measure.

The Road Ahead

With ongoing court battles, diplomatic considerations, and human rights concerns, Trump’s use of the Alien Enemies Act remains a contentious issue. While supporters see it as a necessary tool to combat transnational crime, opponents view it as an overreach that could set a dangerous precedent for future immigration policies.

The coming weeks will be crucial as the administration seeks to defend its actions in court, while advocacy groups continue their efforts to challenge what they see as an unlawful and unconstitutional policy. The ultimate outcome of this legal battle could have lasting implications for immigration enforcement and executive authority in the U.S.

The administration of President Donald Trump filed a series of emergency appeals with the Supreme Court on Thursday, seeking approval to proceed with plans to end birthright citizenship. This move elevates a controversial legal theory that multiple lower courts have strongly rejected.

In its emergency appeals, the Trump administration argued that lower courts had overstepped their authority by issuing nationwide injunctions that blocked the policy. It urged the Supreme Court to limit the scope of these orders.

A federal judge in January ruled that Trump’s executive order was “blatantly unconstitutional” and halted its implementation. Shortly afterward, a Maryland judge stated that the order “runs counter to our nation’s 250-year history of citizenship by birth.” Despite appeals, courts have consistently declined to pause the lower court rulings, which imposed nationwide injunctions on Trump’s order issued on the first day of his second term.

For over 150 years, courts have interpreted the 14th Amendment to ensure citizenship to anyone “born or naturalized in the United States,” regardless of their parents’ immigration status. A landmark 1898 Supreme Court decision affirmed this interpretation, and the current Court has not indicated any intention to reconsider that precedent.

However, some conservative legal scholars argue that this long-standing interpretation is incorrect. They point to a phrase in the 14th Amendment that states citizenship applies only to those “subject to the jurisdiction” of the United States. According to this perspective, immigrants who are in the country illegally remain under the jurisdiction of their home nations and should not be granted U.S. citizenship at birth.

Federal courts in Maryland, Massachusetts, and Washington have all issued injunctions preventing the policy’s implementation. These rulings came in response to lawsuits filed by over 20 states, two immigrant rights organizations, and seven individual plaintiffs.

Cody Wofsy, deputy director of the ACLU Immigrants’ Rights Project and lead attorney in one of the lawsuits challenging the administration, criticized the executive order, saying, “The president’s executive order is outrageously illegal and cruel, and it should not be applied to a single baby in this country.” He added, “We are going to continue fighting to ensure that no child is denied their citizenship by this executive order.”

The Trump administration’s Supreme Court appeals do not directly address whether the executive order is constitutional. Instead, they make what the administration calls a “modest” request to narrow the scope of the injunctions. If granted, this request would allow the government to enforce the policy against individuals not currently covered by ongoing litigation.

The Justice Department, in its emergency appeals, expressed frustration with the increasing use of nationwide injunctions, arguing, “Universal injunctions have reached epidemic proportions since the start of the current administration.” It continued, “Those universal injunctions prohibit a Day 1 Executive Order from being enforced anywhere in the country, as to ‘hundreds of thousands’ of unspecified individuals who are ‘not before the court nor identified by the court.’”

As an alternative measure, the administration requested permission to issue guidance on how it would implement the policy, even if the Court did not fully lift the injunctions.

While the focus of the administration’s legal challenge is on lower court rulings that blocked the executive order, the Justice Department used its Supreme Court appeal to outline broader arguments against birthright citizenship.

“During the 20th century,” the administration argued, “the executive branch adopted the incorrect position that the citizenship clause extended birthright citizenship to almost everyone born in the United States – even children of illegal aliens or temporarily present aliens.” It further claimed, “That policy of near-universal birthright citizenship has created strong incentives for illegal immigration.”

With the Supreme Court now reviewing the case, it is expected to establish a briefing schedule that will require the parties challenging the executive order to submit their responses quickly, possibly within just a few days.

President Trump signed an executive order on Friday aimed at dissolving seven federal agencies, including those overseeing media, libraries, museums, and homelessness initiatives.

The directive instructs these government entities to be “eliminated to the maximum extent consistent with applicable law,” asserting that they should “reduce the performance of their statutory functions and associated personnel.” Agency heads are required to submit a compliance report to the Office of Management and Budget within seven days.

Among the agencies targeted is the U.S. Agency for Global Media, which oversees Voice of America (VOA). The order also seeks to dismantle the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a think tank within the Smithsonian Institution, and the Institute of Museum and Library Services, which provides support to libraries, archives, and museums nationwide.

Additionally, the executive action eliminates the United States Interagency Council on Homelessness, which works to prevent and address homelessness across the country. Other agencies affected include the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service, which helps resolve labor disputes and work stoppages, the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund, which promotes economic opportunities in underserved communities, and the Minority Business Development Agency, which supports the growth of minority-owned businesses.

Trump’s decision has raised concerns about the future of VOA, particularly following his selection of former Arizona gubernatorial and Senate candidate Kari Lake to lead the outlet. Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference last month, Lake assured that under her leadership, the international broadcaster would not become “Trump TV.”

While the president does not directly appoint VOA’s leader, Trump has nominated conservative activist L. Brent Bozell III to head the U.S. Agency for Global Media. If confirmed by the Senate, Bozell would have the authority to appoint Lake to the position.

The U.S. Agency for Global Media also supervises Radio Free Asia, which broadcasts and publishes content for audiences in Asia, serving as a countermeasure against Chinese state propaganda.

The Trump administration has been pursuing a broad restructuring of the federal government, with tech billionaire Elon Musk leading efforts to cut spending and reduce the workforce. However, these efforts have faced legal challenges. On Thursday, federal judges in Maryland and Northern California issued rulings blocking mass dismissals of government employees.

In response, the White House announced on Friday that it would appeal the court decisions, which have required the administration to reinstate probationary federal workers.

A federal judge ruled Thursday night that thousands of federal employees dismissed under the Trump administration must be temporarily reinstated.

U.S. District Judge James Bredar in Maryland issued a temporary restraining order against multiple federal agencies, departments, and their leadership, which had terminated workers as part of a workforce reduction initiative.

“In this case, the government conducted massive layoffs, but it gave no advance notice. It claims it wasn’t required to because, it says, it dismissed each one of these thousands of probationary employees for ‘performance’ or other individualized reasons,” Bredar stated in his ruling.

“On the record before the Court, this isn’t true. There were no individualized assessments of employees. They were all just fired. Collectively,” he added.

Earlier that day, a separate federal judge in California directed several federal departments, including Veterans Affairs, Defense, Energy, Interior, Agriculture, and Treasury, to reinstate thousands of probationary employees who had been terminated the previous month. The Justice Department responded by filing a notice of appeal in that case.

Bredar’s order specifically applies to 12 federal departments that dismissed probationary workers. These include the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs.

Additionally, the ruling covers recently terminated probationary workers at several federal agencies, including the U.S. Agency for International Development, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the General Services Administration, and the Small Business Administration.

Bredar set a deadline of March 17 at 1 p.m. ET for these agencies to reinstate the affected employees.

The judge acknowledged the scale of his ruling, considering the government had dismissed approximately 200,000 probationary employees—workers who were either newly hired or had recently changed positions—since Donald Trump assumed office in January.

“The Court is not blind to the practical reality that the relief being ordered today will have far-reaching impacts on the federal workforce and will require the Government to expend considerable resources in an effort to undo the [reductions in force] that have been put into place,” Bredar noted.

“When, as is likely the case here, the Government has engaged in an illegal scheme spanning broad swaths of the federal workforce, it is inevitable that the remediation of that scheme will itself be a significant task,” he continued.

A coalition of Democratic attorneys general had initiated the lawsuit, seeking a temporary restraining order that would reinstate the terminated employees. They argued that the Trump administration had disregarded established protocols in executing mass terminations of federal workers.

However, Bredar ruled that certain federal entities, including the Defense Department, the Office of Personnel Management, and the National Archives, would not be subject to his order. He cited “insufficient evidence” that a workforce reduction had taken place at these agencies.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta expressed support for the ruling in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.

“We’re pleased with the court’s decision to restrain the Trump Admin’s reckless directive and we’ll continue to monitor and ensure compliance,” he wrote.

The White House has yet to provide a response to the ruling.

If the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) were fully privatized, it would likely result in more frequent rate increases, reduced service days, and a restructured network resembling that of FedEx and UPS, according to industry experts.

Former President Donald Trump has proposed the idea of privatizing the nearly 250-year-old institution as part of efforts to address its financial losses. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and an influential figure in the Trump administration, also supported the idea during a recent Morgan Stanley conference, according to reports.

However, the prospect of privatization has drawn opposition from postal employees and lawmakers, who argue that it could jeopardize service in rural areas, raise costs, and threaten jobs within the agency. In a video message to USPS employees on February 25, Postmaster General Louis DeJoy acknowledged that any structural changes would ultimately be determined by Congress and the president.

“To the degree possible postal leadership will be involved, so that we ensure the nation’s leaders are aware of how future proposed changes may impact our organization’s ability to serve the American people,” DeJoy stated.

The State of USPS

USPS is already working toward financial stability through DeJoy’s 10-year “Delivering for America” plan, which involves various network adjustments aimed at reducing costs while increasing revenue from package deliveries. Despite these efforts, the agency continues to struggle.

In fiscal year 2024, USPS reported a loss of $9.5 billion, with 80% of the deficit attributed to factors beyond management’s control, such as unfunded pension liabilities. To address these challenges, DeJoy has advocated for administrative and legislative reforms, including changes to pension funding.

The Trump administration and lawmakers are now evaluating whether privatization—turning USPS into a profit-driven enterprise without regulatory constraints—would be beneficial for the country.

Despite its financial struggles, USPS remains a key component of the nation’s infrastructure. A 2018 report by a task force established during Trump’s first term emphasized that its delivery network “is a critical part of the nation’s infrastructure that cannot be replicated by private actors.”

Aaron Alpeter, founder of supply chain consultancy Izba, pointed out that defining USPS’s role is essential before making any structural changes.

“We have to really understand, what is the Post Office?” Alpeter said. “Is it meant to compete with commercial interests that are out there, or is meant to provide a safety net for things that commercial interests are not interested in?”

Currently, USPS faces operational constraints in its cost-cutting efforts. DeJoy noted last June that over half of its carrier routes operate at a loss. However, due to its universal service obligation, the agency cannot simply eliminate these routes, as it is legally required to deliver mail promptly and reliably across the country.

This obligation includes servicing costly-to-reach areas such as Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico. Anthony Pizza, Vice President of Growth and Innovation at SpeedX, a parcel carrier that also operates in Hawaii, highlighted the inherent cost challenges in reaching such locations.

“There’s a certain floor for the cost to move things there,” Pizza explained.

Unlike private courier companies, USPS does not receive tax funding to cover the added expenses associated with delivering to remote areas. Any changes to its universal service obligation would require oversight by Congress and the Postal Regulatory Commission.

Even if privatized, USPS could still be required to maintain certain service standards. For instance, the privatized Royal Mail in the United Kingdom is mandated to deliver and collect letters six days a week at affordable rates.

“If we’re going to keep the service standards as they are today, you have to be very realistic to think about what privatization can actually accomplish,” said Derek Lossing, founder of Cirrus Global Advisors and a former Amazon Logistics leader. “Again, if you look at the Royal Mail, I don’t think it’s accomplished nearly what they thought it could.”

Potential Changes Under Privatization

Experts predict that a privatized USPS would likely scale back its six-day-a-week delivery service in less profitable rural areas to cut costs. This would align with the agency’s existing cost-reduction efforts in remote regions.

Another major shift could involve significantly reducing USPS’s physical footprint of over 33,000 post offices. Lossing suggested that, like UPS, the agency could shift to using local businesses as pickup and drop-off locations instead of maintaining standalone post offices.

“Your footprint would look more like a UPS or FedEx,” Lossing noted.

Expected Rate Hikes

Privatization would also likely lead to more aggressive rate increases. Analysts at Wells Fargo estimated that USPS would need to raise parcel delivery prices by at least 30% to achieve financial independence. Their February 27 research report indicated that USPS’s pricing was 25% to 60% lower than FedEx and UPS in the fourth quarter of 2024, depending on the service.

“I don’t know how they would be able to sustain delivery with the current price structure,” said Helaine Rich, Vice President of Strategic Sales and Administration at ePost Global.

While raising prices and cutting service days might help USPS improve its financial outlook, experts warned that such measures carry significant risks, especially in package delivery. If USPS reduces delivery days in certain areas, businesses and consumers may increasingly turn to alternative carriers.

On the other hand, USPS’s ability to reliably deliver to rural communities remains a competitive advantage, particularly for e-commerce companies seeking nationwide coverage, according to Lossing.

The Wells Fargo report also pointed out that substantial rate hikes by a privatized USPS could benefit competitors like FedEx and UPS by “increasing the floor for” delivery rates. Additionally, higher postage costs could accelerate declines in mail volume as businesses and individuals seek digital alternatives.

The Road Ahead

Instead of fully privatizing USPS, the U.S. government could opt for a partial approach by keeping the mail business under federal control while privatizing the package delivery segment, which competes with private companies. Several experts believe such a model could limit disruptions to mail service while allowing for competitive efficiencies in package shipping.

“I don’t see it happening, obviously, on the letter mail side of things,” Rich said regarding privatization.

No matter the approach, transitioning to a privatized model would be a lengthy process. Mark Waverek, Managing Partner at PlaidMark Management and Consulting Services, compared it to the multi-year restructuring efforts seen in countries like Germany.

“You just can’t snap your fingers and turn it on tomorrow,” Waverek said. “This is going to take a well-thought-out process of what those cuts are going to be, what it’s going to mean to the people on the service side [and] what alternatives are going to be in place. It’s going to take time.”

Congress narrowly avoided a government shutdown Friday, mere hours before the deadline, as the Senate approved a spending bill that had already cleared the House. However, the passage of this stopgap measure revealed deep fractures within the Democratic Party.

The legislation, designed to keep the government funded into the fall, now awaits the signature of President Donald Trump, who is expected to approve it.

Senate Democrats faced mounting pressure to reject the Trump-backed bill, and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, along with other Democrats who facilitated its passage, is now facing backlash from within his party.

The internal discord became increasingly apparent as lawmakers raced against the clock to prevent a shutdown that could have had significant consequences across federal agencies. The episode underscored the Democrats’ ongoing struggle to counter Trump and the Republican dominance in Washington.

Roughly 90 minutes before Senate Republicans averted the shutdown in a near party-line vote, Schumer and nine other Democrats crossed the aisle to advance the bill in a critical procedural vote. Despite mounting pressure from within their caucus to block it entirely, the bill required only a simple majority to pass, and nearly all Democrats who had initially supported the procedural step ultimately voted against it in the final tally.

Schumer defended his decision, arguing that the Democrats faced an impossible dilemma: either shut down the government for an indefinite period to challenge Trump or accept a Republican bill that they believed would slash spending on programs such as veterans’ health care and public services in Washington, DC.

“I believe it is the best way to minimize the harm that the Trump administration will do to the American people,” Schumer stated, explaining his reasoning for enabling the bill’s passage.

“Clearly, this is a Hobson’s choice. The CR is a bad bill, but as bad as the CR is, I believe allowing Donald Trump to take even much more power via a government shutdown is a far worse option,” he continued.

Trump, in turn, praised Schumer for his stance, telling reporters after the vote, “I appreciate Senator Schumer, and I think he did the right thing, really. I’m very impressed by that.”

Despite Schumer’s efforts, discontent within the Democratic Party was palpable. Many Senate and House Democrats viewed the move as a concession, squandering a crucial opportunity to exert leverage against Trump in his second term.

Democrats across the country closely followed the procedural vote, seeing it as a key test of their party’s resolve in standing up to the president.

In the end, the Senate passed the stopgap bill in a 54-46 vote, securing government funding through September 30. Among Democrats, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and independent Sen. Angus King of Maine, who caucuses with the party, supported the measure. The only Republican to vote against it was Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky.

“Once I had voted for cloture, it was an opportunity to pass the bill, and I thought it was more honest to vote for it,” Shaheen told CNN. She added, “I thought, much as I didn’t like the CR, I thought a government shutdown would be worse and would give Trump and Elon Musk and the DOGE operation more of an opportunity to fire people, to shut down agencies and to close the work of the government.”

Following the passage of the stopgap measure, the Senate also approved a separate bill to allow Washington, DC, to maintain control over its funds. This move came after Democrats warned that the Republican funding plan would cut $1.1 billion from the city’s budget. The House must now approve this measure, but its fate remains uncertain.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other prominent Democrats had urged voters to pressure senators into blocking the bill and taking a stand against Trump’s attempts to dismantle federal agencies. Many within the party now believe Schumer failed this test.

The fallout from Schumer’s decision has reverberated throughout the Democratic Party, with critics emerging from various factions. However, no senators have publicly declared their intention to challenge his leadership.

Earlier in the week, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries led an aggressive effort to whip votes against the bill. In the end, House Democrats lost only one member to the opposing side, but their efforts were insufficient to prevent the bill from passing in the House on Tuesday.

Jeffries declined to comment on whether he had lost confidence in Schumer due to their differing stances on the funding issue. When asked about it on Friday, he simply responded, “Next question.”

Democrats Reflect on Next Steps

In the aftermath of the vote, Senate Democrats are now grappling with how to move forward as a unified caucus, given the internal divisions exposed by the spending bill.

Schumer told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Friday evening that he had anticipated disagreements within his party but maintained that a government shutdown would have been the worse outcome.

“My job as leader is to lead the party and if there’s going to be danger in the near future, to protect the party. And I’m proud I did it, I knew I did the right thing, and I knew there would be some disagreements. That’s how it always is,” he said.

Schumer also defended his leadership position, asserting, “My caucus and I are in sync.”

Sen. Martin Heinrich, the top Democrat on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, refrained from commenting on whether the party needed new leadership, telling reporters, “That’s a conversation for inside the caucus. I’m not going to debate that out here.”

“I think that Leader Schumer has been very effective in a lot of battles, but we also need to — these are new times, and we need to all come together. And so, you know, second guessing Leader Schumer out here isn’t going to accomplish the kind of community that we’re going to need to be able to stand up to the president. So, we’ll have that conversation inside caucus,” Heinrich added.

Meanwhile, Sen. Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, expressed confidence in Schumer but acknowledged that the caucus had endured a turbulent week.

“I voted no on the CR. I heard that overwhelmingly from folks, and again, recognizing I got tons of federal workers. But I have total respect for the folks who reached another conclusion, and the idea that they would have had a shutdown that would have put us into the abyss with, unfortunately, parts of this administration, doesn’t follow the law,” Warner said.

He further emphasized the need for a broader vision for the party, stating, “I think the Democrats need to have a pro-growth agenda that recognizes fairness, and that is, frankly, not the debate though, that we just took place. That we just took place, it was two awful choices.”

As the Democratic Party regroups following this divisive episode, the long-term implications for party unity and strategy remain uncertain. With tensions still simmering, the coming months will test whether the party can reconcile internal disagreements while continuing to challenge the Republican-led government.

During his election campaign last year, Donald Trump assured Americans that he would bring in a new wave of economic prosperity. However, two months into his presidency, his messaging has shifted. He has now warned that lowering prices will be challenging and has advised the public to brace for a “little disturbance” before he can restore wealth to the U.S. economy.

Despite recent data indicating that inflation is cooling, analysts suggest that the likelihood of an economic downturn is rising, with many pointing to his policies as a contributing factor. This raises the question: Is Trump steering the world’s largest economy toward a recession?

Markets React as Recession Risks Escalate

In the U.S., a recession is defined as a prolonged and widespread decline in economic activity, often accompanied by rising unemployment and falling incomes. Recently, several economic analysts have sounded the alarm that the risks of such a scenario are mounting.

A report from JP Morgan has raised the probability of a recession to 40%, up from 30% at the beginning of the year, cautioning that U.S. policies are now “tilting away from growth.” Similarly, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has increased his estimate of recession odds from 15% to 35%, citing the impact of tariffs.

These warnings have coincided with a significant decline in the S&P 500, which tracks 500 of the largest U.S. companies. The index has now dropped to its lowest point since September, signaling growing fears about the economic future.

Market instability has been partially fueled by concerns over new import taxes, known as tariffs, that Trump has imposed since taking office. His administration has targeted imports from America’s three largest trading partners with these tariffs and has threatened to expand them further. Analysts believe these actions will drive up prices and slow economic growth.

Meanwhile, official data from the U.S. Labor Department shows that inflation eased slightly in February, with prices rising 2.8% over the past year compared to 3% in January. Despite this, Trump and his economic advisors continue to caution the public to expect economic challenges. This marks a stark departure from his first term, when he frequently touted the stock market as a measure of his success.

“There will always be changes and adjustments,” Trump said last week in response to business leaders calling for more economic stability.

His stance has intensified investor concerns regarding his economic strategy. Goldman Sachs recently raised its own recession risk estimate from 15% to 20%, identifying policy changes as the primary threat to economic stability. However, the investment firm also noted that the White House could still “pull back if the downside risks begin to look more serious.”

“If the White House remained committed to its policies even in the face of much worse data, recession risk would rise further,” analysts at Goldman Sachs warned.

Impact of Tariffs, Uncertainty, and Economic Slowdown

For many businesses, the greatest uncertainty stems from Trump’s tariffs, which have increased costs for American companies by imposing taxes on imports. As the administration continues to roll out its tariff plans, many firms are seeing their profit margins shrink. In response, some companies are holding back on new investments and hiring as they try to navigate an unpredictable future.

Investors are also worried about deep cuts to the government workforce and federal spending reductions.

Brian Gardner, chief of Washington policy strategy at the investment bank Stifel, explained that businesses and investors initially assumed Trump was using tariffs as a bargaining tool.

“But what the president and his cabinet are signaling is actually a bigger deal. It’s a restructuring of the American economy,” he said. “And that’s what’s been driving markets in the last couple of weeks.”

Even before these developments, the U.S. economy was experiencing a slowdown, partly due to actions taken by the Federal Reserve, which has kept interest rates elevated to cool economic activity and stabilize prices.

Recently, some economic data has pointed to a more pronounced weakening. Retail sales declined in February, and consumer and business confidence—which had surged following Trump’s election—has since fallen. Major corporations, including airlines, retailers like Walmart and Target, and manufacturers, have all issued warnings about reduced spending.

Some analysts fear that a continued decline in the stock market could lead to even tighter consumer spending, particularly among wealthier households. Since the U.S. economy is heavily dependent on consumer spending, and higher-income households play an increasingly significant role, such a shift could have major repercussions—especially as lower-income families continue to struggle with inflation.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attempted to reassure the public in a speech last week, arguing that economic sentiment has not always been a reliable indicator of actual behavior.

“Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to be in a good place,” Powell stated.

However, the U.S. economy is deeply interconnected with global markets, a reality that adds another layer of complexity to the situation. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, pointed out that these tariffs could create significant disruptions at a time when signs of economic weakness are already emerging.

“The fact that tariffs could disrupt that at the same time that there were signs that the U.S. economy was weakening anyway … is really fueling recession fears,” she said.

Tech Stock Market Correction and AI Bubble Concerns

Not all of the turmoil in the stock market can be attributed to Trump’s policies. Investors were already on edge about the possibility of a market correction, particularly after the substantial gains recorded over the last two years. Much of this growth has been fueled by enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and the tech sector.

For instance, chipmaker Nvidia saw its share price skyrocket from under $15 at the start of 2023 to nearly $150 by November of last year. Such dramatic increases have sparked debate over whether an “AI bubble” has formed. Many investors are now closely watching for signs that the bubble may burst, which could have significant consequences for the broader market—regardless of what’s happening in the wider economy.

As concerns about the U.S. economy intensify, sustaining the optimism surrounding AI has become even more challenging.

Tech analyst Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management expressed his growing doubts on social media this week, admitting that his confidence had “taken a step back” due to the rising likelihood of a recession.

“The bottom line is that if we enter a recession, it will be extremely difficult for the AI trade to continue,” he said.

With the combination of Trump’s economic policies, stock market volatility, and uncertainty in the tech sector, investors and analysts remain on high alert. Whether the administration chooses to adjust its approach in response to mounting risks could determine whether the U.S. economy avoids a full-blown recession or slides into one in the months ahead.

A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS reveals that a majority of Americans are dissatisfied with President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy, despite his approval ratings on other key issues reaching some of their highest levels during his presidency.

With financial markets experiencing declines and investors expressing concerns over Trump’s trade policies, 56% of Americans disapprove of his economic management—the worst rating he has received on this issue during his presidency. In contrast, 51% of respondents approve of his immigration policies, particularly his stricter enforcement measures, marking a 7-point increase from previous approval levels during his tenure.

Public opinion is divided regarding Trump’s management of the federal budget and government operations, with 48% approving and about half disapproving in both areas. His approval ratings are even lower for health care policy (43%), foreign affairs (42%), and tariffs (39%).

Currently, Trump’s overall job approval stands at 45%, while 54% disapprove. These figures align with his ratings from March 2017 and match the highest approval ratings of his presidency. Meanwhile, 35% of Americans believe the country is on the right track—an increase from 29% in January, driven largely by a surge in optimism among Republicans. However, Trump’s approval remains highly polarized, with Republicans being roughly ten times more likely than Democrats to view his performance favorably.

A broad consensus exists across party lines that Trump has taken a unique approach to presidential power. An overwhelming 86% of Americans, including more than three-quarters of both Democrats and Republicans, believe his exercise of presidential authority differs significantly from past presidents. Nearly half (49%) consider this a negative shift, while 37% see it as a positive change. Only 14% believe his governing style aligns with historical presidential norms.

Economic Concerns Dominate Voter Priorities

Economic issues remain the primary concern for Americans, with 42% ranking the economy as the top issue out of a list of seven. This is more than twice the percentage who identified any other issue as their biggest concern, including democracy (19%), the functioning of the federal government (14%), immigration (12%), health care (6%), foreign policy (3%), and climate change (2%).

Across party lines, the economy remains a key focus. Among Democrats, concerns about democracy slightly outweigh economic worries (36% versus 33%). However, among Republicans and independents, the economy is the dominant concern, with 45% in both groups selecting it as the top issue.

Trump’s perceived ability to deliver change and effectively manage the government has improved since his first term. Currently, 50% of Americans believe he can bring necessary change, and 49% think he can manage the government efficiently. Both figures have risen from 43% and 42%, respectively, in November 2019. Additionally, 51% believe Trump possesses the stamina and mental sharpness required for the job, though fewer consider him an effective world leader (46%) or believe he respects the rule of law (38%).

Concerns Over Musk’s Role and Government Downsizing

Trump’s return to office has been marked by efforts to cut federal spending and reduce the government workforce. However, the public’s reaction to these initiatives—and to the prominent role Trump has given tech billionaire Elon Musk—has been largely negative.

Only 35% of Americans hold a favorable view of Musk, compared to 53% who view him negatively, with 11% expressing no opinion. This makes Musk both more recognizable and more unpopular than Vice President JD Vance, whom 33% view positively and 44% unfavorably, with 23% undecided.

Skepticism about Musk’s role in government is widespread. About 60% of Americans believe he lacks the necessary experience and judgment to influence government operations. Even among Trump supporters who back government reform, 28% doubt Musk’s ability to carry out such changes effectively.

Public opinion is also split on Trump’s government reforms. A majority (55%) believe his administration’s changes are primarily intended to advance his political agenda, while 45% see them as necessary for improving government efficiency.

When asked about the potential impact of Trump’s federal budget cuts, 62% express concern that the reductions could go too far and result in the elimination of essential programs. Meanwhile, 37% worry that the cuts do not go far enough in eliminating fraud and waste. Partisan divisions are stark: 90% of Democrats and 69% of independents fear the loss of crucial government programs, while 73% of Republicans are more concerned about the persistence of government inefficiencies.

Lingering Doubts From Trump’s First Term

Many of the opinions surrounding Trump’s second presidency mirror those from his first term. Only 40% of Americans believe he genuinely cares about people like them, and just 34% think he can unite the country—figures that remain largely unchanged since 2019.

Strong disapproval of Trump’s presidency continues to surpass strong approval. In this latest survey, 41% of Americans say they strongly disapprove of Trump, compared to 26% who strongly approve.

A consistent trend throughout Trump’s political career has been the public’s skepticism about whether he has the right priorities. In the latest poll, 57% say he has not focused on the country’s most pressing issues. Furthermore, 59% of respondents consider Trump’s views and policies to be too extreme, up slightly from 54% of registered voters who held this view last September, just before his reelection.

Despite widespread criticism, some Americans express nuanced opinions about Trump’s policies and leadership. For instance, 12% approve of his handling of immigration but disapprove of his economic management. Similarly, 15% believe Trump fails to respect the rule of law but still think he can bring necessary change to the country.

Methodology and Survey Details

The CNN poll, conducted by SSRS, surveyed a random national sample of 1,206 U.S. adults from March 6-9. The participants were selected from a probability-based panel, with interviews conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. The margin of error for the overall results is ±3.3 percentage points.

Just 20 days ago, the U.S. stock market was at record highs, the economy was expanding steadily, and a recession seemed far from reality. However, in a dramatic turnaround, concerns about an economic downturn are now widespread.

Worries about a potential recession are rattling the stock market, leading to downward revisions in GDP forecasts. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump and his economic advisors are facing increased scrutiny regarding the possibility of a recession but have so far failed to calm growing unease.

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks declined again, unable to recover from Monday’s sharp losses. The Dow fell by approximately 400 points (about 1%), and the Nasdaq continued its slide after suffering its worst day in two and a half years.

Selling pressure intensified following Trump’s announcement of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, with warnings that additional tariffs might follow.

The swift shift in investor sentiment is striking. Just a few months ago, there were concerns that the economy was performing too strongly, yet now, fears of a serious downturn have taken hold.

Despite the market’s turbulence, the U.S. economy does not appear to be on the verge of an imminent recession. Economic growth remained solid at the end of last year, and the first quarter has yet to conclude. Furthermore, the job market remained on an upward trajectory in January and February.

It is far too soon to declare that a recession—a prolonged economic slump marked by widespread job losses, bankruptcies, and foreclosures—is inevitable.

Previous recession alarms have, in hindsight, been overblown. The 2022 panic, for instance, included predictions that placed the likelihood of a recession at 99%.

However, economists now acknowledge that the risk of a recession has increased, even if it remains relatively low.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic policies—particularly his tariff strategies—is a significant factor fueling market instability.

“This is a very resilient economy. It can take a licking and keep on ticking. But it doesn’t like this uncertainty,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

On Monday, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers expressed concern, telling CNN that a recession is a “real possibility.”

“We’ve got a real possibility of a vicious cycle where a weakening economy leads to weaker markets, and then weaker markets lead to a weakening economy,” Summers said during an interview.

Business Community Faces Uncertainty

Kelly described the economy and financial markets as suffering from an “uncertainty tax” stemming from questions about Trump’s tariffs, federal spending reductions, and widespread federal job cuts.

“Right now, a lot of businesspeople are like deer in headlights. That’sa very dangerous place to be,” he warned.

Bill Dudley, former president of the New York Federal Reserve, echoed these concerns in an interview with CNN on Monday. While he called it “premature” to predict a recession, he acknowledged that the risk has “definitely gone up.” Dudley attributed this to confusion surrounding trade policy.

“Tariffs have two effects: One, they push up prices. And two, they push down growth,” he explained. “The Trump administration is making things worse with this on-again, off-again approach. The uncertainty level is higher than it needs to be.”

Summers emphasized the importance of stability in financial markets, noting that they have instead experienced “surprise after surprise after surprise.”

“All of this emphasis on tariffs and all of the ambiguity and uncertainty created about tariffs has, ironically, both chilled demand, made businesses not invest, made consumers think they should hold off before making big spending commitments,” he said.

Market Declines Intensify

The market turmoil has continued to escalate.

Following its worst week in six months, the S&P 500 declined nearly 3% on Monday. The index has now fallen about 9% since reaching its all-time high on February 19.

“The stock market is losing confidence in the Trump 2.0 policies,” Ed Yardeni, president of investment advisory Yardeni Research, said in a phone interview with CNN. “Everything is at risk now, mostly because of the administration’s rush to establish so many objectives in a very short period of time — with unintended consequences.”

CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, plunged further into “extreme fear” territory on Monday, a sharp shift from the “neutral” rating of just a few weeks prior.

Tech stocks have been particularly hard hit as investors flee from riskier assets in favor of defensive sectors such as utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples.

On Monday, the Nasdaq tumbled 4%—its biggest one-day drop since September 2022. The losses were led by the “Magnificent 7,” a group of seven high-growth tech stocks that previously seemed unstoppable. Tesla saw its stock price plunge 13%, while Nvidia, Apple, and Alphabet each dropped by more than 5%.

Potential Real-World Economic Impact

It is important to note that stock market fluctuations do not always directly reflect economic conditions.

Unemployment remains low at 4.1%, and the U.S. economy continued adding jobs in February, marking the 50th consecutive month of employment growth—the second-longest uninterrupted job growth period in modern history.

However, there is a risk that ongoing market instability could spill over into the broader economy.

Consumer confidence, which has already been declining in recent months, may fall further as Americans become increasingly aware of the market turmoil. A decline in consumer sentiment could negatively impact spending, which serves as the primary driver of the U.S. economy.

Delta Air Lines revised its profit outlook downward on Monday, citing deteriorating corporate and consumer confidence as factors dampening travel demand.

Yardeni raised concerns about the “negative wealth effects” that could arise if market losses continue.

“Trump is going to have to rethink his notion that it’s okay to let the market go down while he is experimenting with tariffs and slashing federal payrolls,” he said.

Another troubling sign is the growing number of corporate bankruptcies.

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, there were 129 U.S. corporate bankruptcies in the first two months of 2025—the highest figure for this period since 2010, when the country was still reeling from the Great Recession.

Goldman Sachs Raises Recession Odds

Concerns over heightened tariffs prompted Goldman Sachs to increase its recession probability estimate on Friday, though the revision was modest. The investment bank now projects a 20% chance of a recession within the next 12 months, up from its previous 15% estimate.

“We raised it by only a limited amount at this point because we see policy changes as the key risk, and the White House has the option to pull back if the downside risks begin to look more serious,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note to clients.

Essentially, Goldman Sachs is betting that Trump will reverse course on tariffs if a recession becomes more likely.

However, if Trump refuses to change course, the risk of a downturn will increase.

“If the White House remained committed to its policies even in the face of much worse data,” the Goldman Sachs economists cautioned, “recession risk would rise further.”

Another major question is how the Federal Reserve will respond to these economic uncertainties.

Dudley, the former New York Fed president, pointed out that Trump’s tariff policies complicate the Fed’s decision-making by simultaneously pushing prices higher while slowing economic growth.

This could leave the Fed in a difficult position, making it reluctant to either raise or lower interest rates.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the Fed is locked on hold for many, many months,” Dudley said. He added that while some Wall Street analysts expect a rate cut in May, he believes that timeline is “way too soon.”

The U.S. economy has demonstrated significant resilience in recent years.

It has weathered COVID-19 variants, supply chain disruptions, a 40-year high in inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to combat inflation.

However, it now faces a fresh challenge—one largely driven by policy uncertainty in Washington.

President Donald Trump remained off-camera today, an unusual move for him, as the U.S. stock market experienced a sharp decline. This drop followed Trump’s reluctance to rule out the possibility of a recession. When questioned about the market downturn, the White House attributed the president’s economic policies to increased investment and emphasized his first-term economic track record. However, the primary factor behind the market selloff was growing uncertainty over the impact of Trump’s tariffs.

As a deadline looms, a potential government shutdown is becoming a pressing concern. The president has urged Republican lawmakers to maintain unity and support a temporary funding measure before Friday’s cutoff to prevent a shutdown. Meanwhile, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has advised his party members to oppose the proposal. This opposition puts Republican Speaker Mike Johnson in a precarious position, as his slim majority in the House leaves little margin for error.

On the international stage, discussions about the Ukraine war are gaining momentum. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the U.S. wants to understand what compromises Ukraine might be willing to consider in negotiations with Russia. His remarks came just ahead of a crucial meeting between U.S. and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia, where these potential concessions will be discussed.

Judge Rules DOGE Likely Subject to FOIA Requests

A federal judge determined Monday that the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is likely subject to the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), a law designed to promote transparency by allowing the public to access government records.

The decision, issued by U.S. District Court Judge Casey Cooper, represents a significant victory for watchdog organizations and others seeking insight into DOGE’s operations. The department, which has been instrumental in President Trump’s efforts to revamp federal bureaucracy, is spearheaded by Elon Musk.

Despite the ruling, the immediate release of DOGE records remains uncertain. The government has the option to appeal Cooper’s decision, which could delay the disclosure of documents requested by the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), the group that filed the lawsuit.

In the meantime, Cooper has issued a preservation order requiring the administration to safeguard the records CREW has requested. Should DOGE fail to take proper measures to retain its documents, it could face legal consequences, including contempt charges.

The judge found that the Trump administration failed to counter the argument that DOGE possesses “substantial independent authority,” thereby making it subject to FOIA regulations. He pointed out that Trump’s executive orders related to DOGE appeared to “endow USDS with substantial authority independent of the President.” Additionally, public statements from both Trump and Musk suggested that DOGE was actively exercising significant decision-making power.

Rejecting claims that DOGE merely serves in an advisory capacity, Cooper noted Musk’s frequent social media posts boasting about the agency’s sweeping changes. “These statements and reports suggest that the President and USDS leadership view the department as wielding decision-making authority to make cuts across the federal government,” Cooper stated.

GOP Faces Internal Divide Over Stopgap Spending Bill

Two conservative Republican lawmakers informed CNN on Monday that they currently oppose a House GOP proposal to fund the government through September. Their opposition signals a potential hurdle for Speaker Mike Johnson and President Trump, who must rally enough support within their own party to pass the bill and avert a shutdown.

With House Democrats expected to vote against the legislation, Johnson can only afford one Republican defection. However, GOP Representative Thomas Massie has already stated his opposition, making the margin for error even smaller. If Congress fails to approve funding legislation by the end of the week, the government will shut down after 11:59 p.m. ET on Friday.

Republican Representatives Tim Burchett and Rich McCormick expressed reservations about the bill, although they have not yet spoken with Trump directly. “Currently, but I’d like to talk some more,” Burchett remarked when asked about his stance. He emphasized his concern about military spending and called for greater oversight.

The Tennessee lawmaker acknowledged that he appreciates aspects of Johnson’s proposal, which includes $13 billion in domestic spending cuts and an additional $6 billion allocated for defense. However, he took issue with “the fact that they push it over to the war pimps at the Pentagon, once again.”

McCormick, representing Georgia, was more direct in his opposition. When asked if he would support the bill, he replied, “Nope.” He argued that extending current funding levels until the fiscal year’s end while postponing decisions on federal cuts gives excessive power to the executive branch, circumventing the constitutional appropriations process.

When pressed on whether he was firmly against the bill, McCormick remained noncommittal. “No, I refuse to paint myself into the corner,” he said.

Kennedy Moves to Close FDA Loophole on Food Safety

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who serves as the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, announced Monday that he has instructed the acting commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to take steps toward eliminating a controversial regulation known as Generally Recognized As Safe (GRAS).

This rule, part of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, allows certain food additives to bypass premarket approval requirements if experts have determined them to be safe for consumption. The FDA states that substances intentionally used as food additives must receive approval “unless the substance is generally recognized, among qualified experts, as having been adequately shown to be safe under the conditions of its intended use.”

Initially, the GRAS designation was intended for common ingredients such as sugar, vinegar, and baking soda. However, in the late 1990s, the FDA found itself overwhelmed by an increasing number of requests for additive approvals. To manage this, the agency implemented a voluntary GRAS notification program to ensure that these ingredients remained safe for their intended use.

The voluntary nature of this system, however, has led to concerns about regulatory oversight. The FDA itself has acknowledged that this guidance “does not establish legally enforceable responsibilities.” Critics argue that manufacturers can exploit this loophole by introducing new additives into food products without formally notifying regulators.

A 2022 study by the Environmental Working Group revealed that since 2000, nearly 99% of newly approved food-contact chemicals were cleared by the food and chemical industries rather than the FDA. Over this 22-year period, food manufacturers requested FDA approval for a new chemical only 10 times, according to the analysis.

“By 1997, FDA had tentatively concluded that it could no longer devote substantial resources to the GRAS affirmation petition process,” the agency states on its website. This led to the establishment of the voluntary notification program, which has since been criticized for lacking sufficient regulatory enforcement.

Kennedy’s move to eliminate GRAS could mark a significant shift in food safety policy, closing a loophole that has allowed manufacturers to introduce additives with minimal oversight.