Former President Trump’s Debate Victory Sparks Global Preparations for Potential Second Term

Former President Donald Trump’s apparent success in the recent presidential debate has heightened global efforts to brace for a potential second Trump administration, despite international audiences favoring President Joe Biden.

During the debate, Trump asserted that foreign nations lack respect for Biden’s leadership and the United States, contradicting a recent Pew poll indicating that respondents in over 30 countries have more confidence in Biden than Trump regarding foreign policy decisions.

Low global confidence in Trump partly explains why U.S. allies are strategizing for an America that might withdraw from global affairs, either through policy shifts or internal turmoil and partisanship.

Diplomatic protocol typically discourages foreign representatives from commenting on other countries’ elections or internal politics. However, over the past year, senior foreign officials have actively maintained relationships with Trump and his national security circle.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron met Trump at Mar-a-Lago in April, advocating for continued U.S. support for Ukraine. Similarly, Polish President Andrzej Duda spent two and a half hours with Trump in New York in April, describing it as a “friendly meeting, in a very pleasant atmosphere.”

Outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg highlighted the alliance’s economic contributions to the U.S. at the Heritage Foundation earlier this year. The Washington think tank is considered a staging ground for officials in a potential second Trump administration.

NATO’s next Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, a disciplined former Dutch prime minister, won Trump’s favor despite interrupting and contradicting him during Washington meetings.

In Asia, U.S. allies heavily rely on American political and military backing. However, they are strengthening ties among themselves and with Europe to counter Trump’s threats to withdraw security commitments if defense spending is insufficient. The presence of Indo-Pacific allies at NATO summits, such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, underscores this effort.

“That’s clearly an effort to ensure that even without the United States around that those relationships will continue to grow and those democracies will continue to support one another,” said Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University.

In private discussions, diplomats avoid expressing anxiety over a second Trump administration, instead focusing on past successes with Trump as a guide for future cooperation.

While Trump offered few substantive foreign policy priorities during the debate, he provided significant, albeit brief, answers on key issues. For instance, Ukraine’s supporters might find solace in Trump’s debate rejection of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands to block Ukraine from joining NATO and recognize Russian control over occupied territory in exchange for ending the war.

Preparations are underway for NATO to assume America’s leading role in coordinating support for Ukraine. When Biden hosts the NATO summit in Washington next month, allies are expected to announce that NATO will lead the Ramstein group, which coordinates weapon supplies for Kyiv. NATO is also expected to agree on language outlining Ukraine’s path to membership.

Congress’s support for NATO serves as a safeguard against Trump’s threats to withdraw or withhold U.S. commitments. Nonetheless, bilateral U.S. partnerships remain crucial, and European and Asian leaders have been preparing for months to maintain warm ties with Trump’s circle in anticipation of a possible chaotic second term.

Some countries have dispatched envoys to the U.S. to lobby Republicans at the state level, aiming to mitigate some of Trump’s most concerning threats. Germany’s coordinator of transatlantic cooperation, Michael Link, has met with governors across the U.S. to prevent punitive tariffs on EU goods if Trump is reelected. “It would be extremely important, if Donald Trump were reelected, to prevent the punitive tariffs he is planning on goods from the EU,” Link told Reuters earlier this year.

In the Middle East, a second Trump term would be met with “jubilation,” said Farkas, citing the close ties between Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Trump reportedly spoke with the crown prince in April, amid Biden’s efforts to broker a cease-fire in the Gaza conflict between Israel and Hamas. “I think the Middle East is an area where, if anything they’re hoping for a Trump outcome, they’re not really hedging,” Farkas added.

Although Trump has criticized Israel’s handling of the Gaza conflict and holds grudges against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for recognizing Biden’s 2020 victory, his reelection could bolster Israel’s far-right. “The [Israeli] opposition and the Palestinian people would not be happy with Trump because again, he has been happy to give a blank check to Netanyahu and the Israeli government. It’s the same philosophy, I think, for all the Arab states, basically. Trump will let them do what they want to do and do business with them,” Farkas explained.

During the debate, Trump did not commit to supporting an independent Palestinian state for peace and urged Israel to “finish the job” against Hamas. These positions might conflict with Arab and Gulf states, whose populations support Palestinian rights, noted Gerald Feierstein, director of the Middle East Institute’s Arabian Peninsula Affairs Program and former U.S. ambassador to Qatar. “If Trump wants to pursue the Saudi-Israel agreement, and if the Saudis stick to their guns about no deal without Palestine, that probably means there probably won’t be an Israel-Saudi deal,” Feierstein said, adding that this could change if Netanyahu is ousted.

Despite potential conflicts, Israel and Gulf states are likely to welcome a Trump administration focused on containing Iran, as outlined by Robert O’Brien, Trump’s last national security adviser, who is expected to hold a senior position in a second Trump administration. “The focus of U.S. policy in the Middle East should remain the malevolent actor that is ultimately most responsible for the turmoil and killing: the Iranian regime,” O’Brien wrote in a policy paper for Foreign Affairs.

Trump often claims that Putin would not have invaded Ukraine and Hamas would not have attacked Israel if he were president, assertions that cannot be verified. However, his statements highlight his advisers’ efforts to develop a foreign policy for a potential second term emphasizing a strongman image. “This morass of American weakness and failure cries out for a Trumpian restoration of peace through strength,” O’Brien wrote.

HAF’s Defamation Lawsuit Backfires: Reveals More About Its Operations and Allies

Over three years ago, the Hindu American Foundation (HAF), which claims to represent all Hindus in North America, initiated a SLAPP (Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation) suit against activists, academics, and journalists.

This report gives an overview of HAF’s lawsuit, examines their claims, and discusses how they unintentionally disclosed significant details about their funding and operations. Their claims of reduced financial support due to public criticism were not supported by their financial records. Additionally, their assertions of not always supporting the current Indian government do not match the public statements of HAF leaders.

Recently, HAF commenced a defamation lawsuit against several activists and academics, including Sunita Viswanath and Raju Rajagopal of Hindus for Human Rights, and Rutgers University professor Audrey Truschke. The lawsuit concerns allegations in two Al Jazeera articles suggesting that federal COVID-19 relief funding received by HAF and other organizations could be used to support a hate campaign against minorities in India.

In early 2021, Audrey Truschke began researching US-based Hindu nationalist groups, including HAF. Al Jazeera published two articles by Kashmiri journalist and Hindutva Watch founder Raqib Naik on April 2 and April 8, 2021. These articles detailed how HAF and other groups received $833,000 in federal COVID-19 relief funds, implying these funds might be used to endorse Hindu nationalism. After the articles were published, HAF sent cease-and-desist letters to several individuals quoted in the articles on April 19, 2021. The recipients included Truschke, Rasheed Ahmed, Viswanath, Rajagopal, and John Prabhudoss.

On May 7, 2021, HAF filed a defamation lawsuit in the US District Court for the District of Columbia. Initially, they sought $75 million in damages, later corrected to the jurisdictionally minimum amount of $75,000. The lawsuit targeted Viswanath, Ahmed, Prabhudoss, Rajagopal, and Truschke. Naik was added as a co-conspirator. Over 300 prominent writers, academics, and scholars have criticized the lawsuit, arguing that it attempts to suppress free speech and silence dissent.

HAF’s Allegations and Claims

HAF’s lawsuit alleges that defamatory statements in the Al Jazeera articles led to reduced donations and reputational harm. They argue the articles falsely claimed HAF funneled COVID-19 relief funds to promote Hindu nationalism and insist all funds were used lawfully for rent and employee retention during the pandemic.

HAF claims to have suffered losses in various categories, including reduced donations, lost donations, lost grants and opportunities, lost funds from family foundations, lost prospective new donors, mitigation expenses, and reputational damage.

However, a review of documents unsealed by Judge Amit Mehta on June 5, 2024, related to the lawsuit suggests that HAF’s claims of reduced donations are speculative. The documents indicate that the defendants dispute HAF’s claims broadly on three levels.

Refutation of Claims by Defendants

Firstly, the defendants emphasize the speculative nature of damages. They highlight HAF’s admission that it does not know of any donor who reduced or stopped contributions specifically because of the contested statements. They also note HAF’s inability to identify any written or oral communication from a donor stating such a reason for altering their donation habits.

Secondly, the defendants assert there is no causal link. HAF assumes a connection between the disputed statements and its purported losses without offering proof of a direct link. For example, HAF alleges it lost grants and opportunities, but the defendants argue HAF can’t substantiate that the decisions of grant providers were influenced by the disputed statements.

Thirdly, the defendants provide evidence that HAF received more donations and from a larger number of donors in the 12 months following the contested statements compared to the previous year. This undermines HAF’s assertion of financial harm. HAF also received significant funding from new donors during a fundraising campaign tied to the litigation, further contradicting their claims of reputational damage affecting their relationships with donors.

Donation Records: A Contradiction

In a defamation case, to establish damages, the plaintiff must provide concrete evidence that defamatory statements directly led to financial or reputational harm. Claims that are speculative or unsupported do not meet this legal standard. HAF’s reliance on speculation weakens their case due to the lack of necessary proof of causation.

Exhibit 1 of the unsealed documents details the financial records that HAF submitted as evidence. Despite HAF’s allegations, donation records from April 2018 to April 2022 show an uptick in contributions after the publication of the contested statements. The data shows a notable increase in both the donation amounts and the number of donors once the statements were publicized:

| Year       | Donation Amount  | Number of Donations |

|————|——————|———————|

| 2018-2019  | $1,343,848.08    | 1,420               |

| 2019-2020  | $1,785,007.23    | 2,456               |

| 2020-2021  | $1,580,784.28    | 2,502               |

| 2021-2022  | $2,583,102.22    | 6,515               |

Table 1: Donation Summary

The figures in Table 1 show a significant increase in donations after publication, contradicting HAF’s claims of financial damage. This raises questions about the actual impact of the supposed defamation and if the statements had any negative effect at all.

Speculative Nature of HAF’s Claims

Let’s dig a bit deeper to understand how HAF’s own data, which they submitted as evidence for their claims, along with their lack of supporting proof, highlights the speculative and often frivolous nature of their claims.

Reduced Donations:HAF’s claim of $157,623.90 in “Reduced Donations” is based on a spreadsheet comparing 2020 and 2021 donations. HAF cannot point to any communication from a donor attributing their reduced contributions to the challenged statements.

Lost Donations:HAF’s claim for “Lost Donations,” amounting to $1,212,508 from donors who contributed in 2020 but not in 2021 or 2022, is also speculative. HAF’s executive director admitted during a deposition that she didn’t know the specific reasons why donors stopped contributing, acknowledging the potential for unrelated factors.

Lost Grants and Opportunities:HAF’s claim of $186,000 in damages for “Lost Grants and/or Opportunities” is speculative and lacks supportive evidence. HAF alleges rejection from a grant and an opportunity due to the challenged statements but doesn’t provide any supporting evidence. HAF’s assumption that a potential presentation was rejected is based on hearsay, and it’s uncertain if the decision-makers were even aware of the challenged statements.

Lost Funds from Family Foundations:HAF’s claim of a $150,000 loss in donations from family foundations targeted in a direct mail campaign is unsupported by evidence. HAF admitted to not knowing the reasons behind the donation shortfall, and it remains unclear whether any of the targeted foundations were even aware of the challenged statements.

Lost Prospective New Donors:HAF’s claim of losing 668 potential new donors assumes these individuals refrained from donating due to the challenged statements, even though there’s no direct evidence supporting this assertion. In contrast, evidence indicates HAF attracted over 1,600 new donors through a fundraising campaign related to the lawsuit, which contradicts their claim of donor deterrence.

Mitigation Expenses:HAF claims damages associated with staff time and resources used to address the alleged harm. However, it does not specify an amount, making it difficult to ascertain the relevance of these alleged damages to the jurisdictional threshold. The claim of 135 staff hours spent addressing the challenged statements is not supported by documentation such as timesheets or meeting notes.

Reputational Damage:HAF’s claim for $485,000 in reputational damages is based on the potential future cost of hiring a public relations firm, an Online Reputation Management specialist, and advertising. These estimates were made by Eric Rose, a reputation media marketing expert. However, HAF has not actually retained these services and only presents this as a potential future expense, which holds no legal relevance in assessing damages. The claim that HAF requires these services 14 months after the challenged statements is not credible. HAF also tries to link its expulsion from the Alliance Against Genocide to the reputational damage caused by the challenged statements, but the organization clearly cited the lawsuit as the reason for the expulsion.

HAF Executive Director’s Testimony

During her deposition, Suhag Shukla, the executive director of HAF, was questioned about various aspects of the lawsuit. The primary focus was on the alleged damages suffered by HAF.

Reduced Donations:Shukla noted that HAF identified 173 donors who contributed less in 2021 than they did in 2020. However, she recognized that it’s not possible to definitively attribute these reductions to the defendants’ statements. Shukla conceded that HAF does not customarily contact donors to ask about reasons behind reduced contributions. Various factors, such as changes in donors’ financial circumstances or philanthropic priorities, could be influencing these changes.

Allstate Foundation Grant:Concerning the lost grant claim from the Allstate Foundation, Shukla explained that HAF only submitted a pre-application for a racial equity-focused grant opportunity. She clarified that HAF had not sent a full application and didn’t know if Allstate was even aware of the defendants’ statements. Shukla admitted that the defendants’ statements might have led to the pre-application rejection, but there was no evidence to back up this assertion.

PayPal Presentation:Shukla testified about a potential “Hinduism

101” presentation at PayPal which did not come to fruition. She was in contact with an anonymous employee who informed her, via email, that the event would involve HR, diversity and inclusion teams, and possibly employee resource groups. However, Shukla confirmed she had no knowledge of whether those who decided against the presentation were aware of the defendants’ statements. She conceded that her belief that these statements influenced PayPal’s decision was based on the presumption that PayPal might have found HAF’s values incompatible with their own due to these statements.

Emails and Public Communication:Shukla verified that HAF sent an email about the lawsuit to its database of approximately 20,000 individuals. She did not confirm if HAF took any steps to prevent recipients from forwarding the email, but she conceded that adding such a feature to their email system was likely achievable.

More Interesting Details from the Deposition*

During her deposition, Shukla mentioned that HAF solicited donations from a family foundation called Guru Krupa Foundation in 2022. She also revealed the name of a HAF supporter despite acknowledging that the individual had requested confidentiality, raising an ethical concern.

However, the most interesting parts pertain to the relationship between HAF and the Indian government and Hindutva. Unfortunately, as the full text of the deposition is unavailable, we will only examine these parts without extrapolating from the context or making any assumptions.

During the deposition, Shukla confirmed that HAF believes it is false to characterize the organization as supporting the current Indian government’s erosion of democratic values. She insisted HAF is a wholly independent, non-partisan American organization that does not contribute any funds to spread Hindu nationalism in India.

This is in response to Gregory H. Stanton, the founding president of Genocide Watch, who, in an email, stated that the HAF’s lawsuit against Hindus for Human Rights was a reflection of the organization’s support for the current Indian government’s erosion of democratic values.

Shukla further stated that HAF has even opposed certain Indian government policies. Specifically, HAF advocated for improvements to the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), as the organization believes that governments should not specify religious groups in amnesty policies.

However, her statement from March 11, 2024, which contradicts her previous stance, can be found on the HAF website. It was published on the same day the Indian government notified the rules of the CAA, a move she praises as “long overdue” and “necessary.”

“India’s Citizenship Amendment Act is long overdue and necessary. It protects some of the most vulnerable refugees in India, granting them the human rights they were denied in their home country, and the clear and expedited path to citizenship needed for them to begin rebuilding their lives. CAA mirrors the long-established Lautenberg Amendment in the US, in place since 1990, which has provided a clear immigration path for persons fleeing a select group of nations where religious persecution is rampant. I’m proud to see both the oldest and largest secular democracies in the world — the US and India — be a beacon of hope by extending a pathway to freedom and a new life to those who have suffered gross human rights violations simply because of their religion,” she said.

More interestingly, Shukla stated that HAF objected to being labeled as “pro-Hindutva” due to the derogatory connotations attached to the term by the defendants. The term “Hindutva,” as used by the defendants, was understood to imply “Hindu supremacist” or “Hindu nationalist,” identities that HAF does not align with. Shukla further clarified that since HAF does not have an official definition for “Hindutva,” it cannot be determined whether the organization supports or opposes it.

However, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the fountainhead and mother ship of all things Hindutva, is said to have close links with HAF. HAF’s co-founder, Mihir Meghani, is reported to be a long-time member of the Hindu Swayamsevak Sangh, which represents the overseas interests of the RSS. Meghani has spoken at conferences organized by the Vishwa Hindu Parishad of America, the international religious branch of the RSS.

In 2005, HAF partnered with other organizations to lobby the state of California to change passages on Hinduism in official school textbooks. Critics suggest the changes HAF was pushing for reflected “chauvinistic political agendas,” seeking to equate the history of India with the history of Hinduism.

In October 2019, HAF invited Aarti Tikoo Singh, who claimed in a Twitter exchange that “Islamophobia is a bullsh*t word thrown in as a slur by those who have irrational fear (phobia) of any criticism of Islamic extremism [and] regressive Muslims.”

HAF served as a “partner organization” for an event marking Hindu Heritage month in October 2022. The chief guest and keynote speaker of the event was Dattatreya Hosabale, the general secretary of the RSS. Other supporting organizations of the event included the VHPA and the HSS. However, a disclaimer on the announcement for the event noted that “HAF was not part of the committee that invited the speakers for the inaugural program that took place on October 1, 2022.”

All these are well-documented by the Bridge Initiative Team at Georgetown University. You can read them [here](https://bridge.georgetown.edu/).

Conclusion

HAF’s SLAPP lawsuit is ironic, as they ended up revealing more about their own workings and alliances than they bargained for. Instead of silencing their critics, they have inadvertently created a platform for a broader conversation about their funding, operations, and functioning.

The meritless lawsuit, rather than protecting the reputation of the Hindu right, has highlighted their lack of strategic foresight and revealed the lengths they will go to suppress their critics. Such tactics, as seen in this case and others, have the potential to undermine democratic discourse and freedom of expression, often to the detriment of the parties initiating the lawsuits themselves.

Global Perspectives: Impact of US Election Echoes Worldwide

When Americans select their next president, the world watches closely, aware of the profound global implications of US foreign policy and White House actions. The upcoming debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will prominently feature discussions on American influence abroad.

The election’s impact stretches beyond familiar battlegrounds like Ukraine, Israel, and Gaza. BBC’s foreign correspondents highlight why this election resonates globally.

Russian Perspective

Russian observers scrutinize the US election for potential implications on stability. Vladimir Putin’s preference for predictability suggests a cautious leaning towards Joe Biden, despite Trump’s initial appeal. Moscow remains wary after unmet expectations during Trump’s first term.

Taiwan and China

Both candidates advocate toughness towards China but differ significantly on Taiwan. Biden emphasizes solidarity with regional allies against Beijing’s assertiveness, contrasting with Trump’s transactional approach and ambiguous commitments towards Taiwan’s defense.

Ukrainian Concerns

In Ukraine, US support against Russian aggression is critical, although public attention amidst ongoing conflict remains subdued. Ukrainian analysts weigh Trump’s rhetoric against Biden’s historical backing, underscoring the pragmatic uncertainties of campaign promises.

UK’s Uncertainty

UK policymakers view the election with apprehension, fearing potential shifts in US policy towards military alliances, trade disputes, and democratic stability post-election. The UK grapples with the dilemma of aligning with democratic values amidst global political turbulence.

Israeli Perspectives

Israeli sentiments towards Trump are favorable, recalling diplomatic gains despite Biden’s recent criticisms over Palestinian casualties. Trump’s pro-Israel stance contrasts with Biden’s support for a two-state solution, shaping Middle East expectations.

India’s Strategic Calculations

India, a strategic partner in US-China rivalry, anticipates continuity in bilateral relations, irrespective of the election outcome. Modi’s engagements with both Biden and Trump reflect India’s adaptability to US political dynamics.

Mexican Memories

Mexicans recall Trump’s divisive rhetoric but acknowledge his administration’s cooperation on critical issues like immigration. Incoming President Sheinbaum seeks to redefine Mexico’s stance under a new US administration, emphasizing continuity in bilateral relations.

Canadian Concerns

Canada anticipates potential trade disruptions under a second Trump term, contrasting with efforts to safeguard bilateral interests through proactive diplomacy and economic advocacy.

Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump, Globally

By Richard Wike, Janell Fetterolf, Maria Smerkovich, Sarah Austin and Sofia Hernandez Ramones

With many around the world closely following the fiercely contested rematch between U.S. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, a new Pew Research Center survey finds that, internationally, Biden is viewed more positively than his rival.

Across the 34 nations polled, a median of 43% have confidence in Biden to do the right thing regarding world affairs, while just 28% have confidence in Trump. The gap between ratings is quite wide in many countries, especially in Europe. Biden’s confidence rating is at least 40 percentage points higher than Trump’s in Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden.

However, there are exceptions. There is no statistically significant difference in ratings of Biden and Trump in eight nations we surveyed. And people in Hungary and Tunisia give Trump more positive reviews than Biden, although neither leader gets especially high marks there. (The survey was conducted before Trump’s conviction in a state criminal trial in New York.)

Even though Biden gets better assessments than Trump globally, ratings for the current U.S. president are down since last year in 14 of 21 countries where trends are available, including by double digits in Australia, Israel, Japan, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump Globally

The survey included a series of questions about how Biden is handling major international issues. Overall, opinions are divided on how he is dealing with climate change and global economic problems.

Across the 34 countries polled, a median of around four-in-ten approve of how Biden is dealing with China and with the war between Russia and Ukraine (39% each).

The president gets his most negative reviews on his handling of the Israel-Hamas war: A median of just 31% approve of the way he is handling the conflict, while 57% disapprove. (The survey was conducted prior to Biden announcing a proposal to end the conflict.)

Research in the West Bank and Gaza

Pew Research Center has polled the Palestinian territories in previous years, but we were unable to conduct fieldwork in Gaza or the West Bank for our Spring 2024 survey due to security concerns. We are actively investigating possibilities for both qualitative and quantitative research on public opinion in the region and hope to be able to share data from the region in the coming months.

Six-in-ten Israelis disapprove of how Biden is handling the war, including 53% of Jewish Israelis and 86% of Arab Israelis. (For more on how Israelis rate Biden, read “Israeli Views of the Israel-Hamas War.”)

Of the predominantly Muslim nations surveyed, large majorities in Malaysia, Tunisia and Turkey also disapprove of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. Opinion is divided on this issue in Bangladesh.

The new survey finds that overall attitudes toward the United States are generally positive: A median of 54% across the nations polled have a favorable view of the U.S., while 31% have a negative opinion.

However, criticisms of American democracy are common in many nations. We asked respondents whether U.S. democracy is a good example for other countries to follow, used to be a good example but has not been in recent years, or has never been a good example.

Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump Globally

The predominant view in most countries is that the U.S. used to be a good model but has not been recently. Overall, a median of 21% believe it is currently a good example, while 22% say it has never been a good model for other countries.

In eight of the 13 countries where trends are available, fewer people say American democracy is a good example than said so in spring 2021, when we last asked this question.

For this report, we surveyed 40,566 people in 34 countries – not including the U.S. – from Jan. 5 to May 21, 2024. In addition to this overview, the report includes chapters on:

Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump Globally

At least half of those in most countries surveyed express a favorable opinion of the U.S. Poles are the most positive, at 86% favorable. Of the European nations surveyed, ratings also lean positive in Italy, Hungary and the UK. Elsewhere in Europe, however, opinions tend to be closely divided.

Attitudes toward the U.S. are largely favorable in the Asia-Pacific nations polled, especially Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand. However, most Australians and Malaysians give the U.S. poor marks.

In the Middle East-North Africa region, a 77% majority of Israelis view the U.S. favorably, although this is down from 87% last year. Large majorities in Tunisia and Turkey offer an unfavorable opinion.

The U.S. gets mostly positive ratings in the sub-Saharan African and Latin American nations surveyed. Two-thirds or more see the U.S. favorably in Colombia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Peru.

Confidence in Biden, Trump and other world leaders

Pew Research Center has explored attitudes toward American presidents for over two decades, finding significant shifts in opinions over the years. Data from four Western European nations that we have surveyed consistently – France, Germany, Spain and the UK – shows long-term trends in views of recent presidents.

George W. Bush received low and declining ratings during his time in the White House, while Barack Obama got mostly high marks. Attitudes toward Donald Trump were overwhelmingly negative throughout his presidency. Biden has consistently received more positive reviews than his predecessor, but his ratings have declined in these four countries during his time in office.

Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump Globally

There are nine nations in this year’s survey where six-in-ten adults or more express confidence in Biden. Four are in Europe (Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden), two are in the Asia-Pacific region (the Philippines and Thailand) and three are in sub-Saharan Africa (Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria).

Since last year, confidence in Biden has dropped significantly in 14 nations: Seven in Europe, plus Australia, Canada, Israel, Japan, Mexico, South Africa and South Korea. Biden gets his lowest ratings in Turkey and Tunisia, where only about one-in-ten express confidence in him.

The two countries where at least six-in-ten adults have confidence in Trump are Nigeria and the Philippines. Like Biden, Trump gets one of his lowest ratings in Turkey, where just 10% view him favorably.

Confidence in Trump has increased slightly in a few European countries since we last asked about him in 2020, although his ratings remain quite low in Europe.

In contrast, Trump’s ratings have become more negative in Poland since 2019, which was the last year we asked about him there. Israeli views toward the former president have also become more negative over the past five years.

Refer to Appendix B for long-term trends in confidence in U.S. presidents.

Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump Globally Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump Globally

In addition to exploring confidence in Biden and Trump, the survey asked about trust in French President Emmanuel Macron, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Overall, Macron receives the most positive ratings across the countries in the study, followed closely by Biden. The French president gets higher ratings than his U.S. counterpart in many of the European nations surveyed. Both Xi and Putin receive mostly poor marks across the countries in the study.

Differences by ideology, age and gender

Ideology

In 17 of the 28 countries where political ideology is measured, people on the right are more likely to have a positive opinion of the U.S. than those on the left. For example, 65% of people on the right in Spain view the U.S. favorably, compared with 26% of people on the left.

In 18 countries, people on the right are more likely to express confidence in Trump than those on the left. The gap is especially large in Israel, where 75% of those on the right have confidence in him, compared with just 23% of Israelis on the left.

There are also some sizable ideological differences on views about Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. In several countries – including about half of the European countries surveyed – people on the right are more likely than those on the left to approve of how Biden is handling the conflict.

Biden Receives Higher Ratings Than Trump Globally

Age

In several countries – including Canada, all Latin American countries surveyed and several countries in the Asia-Pacific region – adults under 35 are more likely to have a positive opinion of the U.S. when compared with adults ages 50 and older. Australia, Israel and Sweden are the only countries where younger adults have a less favorable view of the U.S.

In Canada, Australia and seven of the 10 European countries surveyed, young adults are less likely than older adults to approve of how Biden is dealing with the Israel-Hamas war.

Gender

Men have more confidence in Trump than women do in many of the countries surveyed. The largest difference is in the UK, where men are about twice as likely as women to trust the former U.S. president. In many of the countries surveyed, women are less likely than men to answer this question at all.

Hezbollah Leader Threatens Israel and Cyprus in Defiant Speech

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, a Shiite Lebanese militant group, issued a threat against Israel in a speech, asserting his organization’s readiness for an expanded conflict. According to Nasrallah, Hezbollah purportedly commands a force of 100,000 fighters and hinted at potential hostilities extending to Cyprus.

Hezbollah, known for its ties to Iran and affiliation with Hamas, has escalated attacks on Israel since October 7, marked by rocket barrages targeting northern Israel and causing widespread evacuations. Nasrallah’s remarks, delivered at a funeral for Hezbollah fighters killed by Israeli forces, challenged Israel’s claims of success against Hezbollah, affirming the group’s resilience in the face of losses.

“The resistance’s manpower is unprecedented. We have recruited over 100,000 fighters,” Nasrallah stated, as reported by PressTV. “The enemy knows well that we have prepared ourselves for the worst… and that no place… will be spared our rockets.”

Nasrallah also warned against threats of war on Lebanon, asserting Hezbollah’s readiness and determination. Recent escalations in June saw Hezbollah launching rockets during the Jewish holiday of Shavuot, prompting significant Israeli military deployments along the Lebanese border. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have indicated readiness for offensive action if Hezbollah’s attacks persist.

Hezbollah further underscored its capabilities by releasing drone footage of northern Israel, purportedly gathered during reconnaissance missions over cities like Haifa. Nasrallah referenced this footage in his speech, describing extensive surveillance coverage of the region.

In addition to addressing Israel, Nasrallah praised other militant groups aligned with Iran, such as the Houthis in Yemen, highlighting their successful operations against commercial shipping despite international efforts to intervene.

Regarding Cyprus, Nasrallah’s speech included a direct threat in response to the country’s cooperation with the United States and Israel. He warned that allowing Israeli military access through Cypriot airports and bases would be seen as an act of war, promising Hezbollah would treat Cyprus accordingly.

Middle East Eye observed that Nasrallah’s threat against Cyprus, unprecedented in scale, coincided with Cypriot diplomatic engagements with the U.S., particularly concerning aid efforts in Gaza. Cyprus has strengthened ties with Israel in recent years, attracting investments and energy collaborations, actions Nasrallah views as supporting Israeli military operations against Lebanon.

Despite Nasrallah’s warnings, Cyprus’s President Nikos Christodoulides emphasized his nation’s neutrality in military conflicts and commitment to regional stability. He asserted that Cyprus plays a constructive role and is not involved in any military activities.

This situation has raised tensions in the region, with Israel and its allies closely monitoring Hezbollah’s actions and rhetoric, while Cyprus seeks to navigate diplomatic challenges amid escalating threats from militant groups like Hezbollah.

Putin and Kim Forge Strategic Pact Amid Rising Global Tensions

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have inked an accord on Wednesday, vowing reciprocal aid in the event of “aggression,” marking a significant strategic alliance amid heightened tensions with the West.

The specifics of the agreement remain unclear initially, but it potentially represents the strongest bond between Moscow and Pyongyang since the Cold War’s conclusion. Both leaders hailed the pact as a substantial elevation of bilateral ties, encompassing aspects such as security, trade, investment, as well as cultural and humanitarian relations.

Putin’s visit to North Korea, his first in 24 years, coincided with mounting concerns among the U.S. and its allies over possible military arrangements. These include speculations that Pyongyang could supply Moscow with crucial weaponry for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, in exchange for economic aid and technology transfers that could bolster Kim’s nuclear and missile capabilities.

Following his visit to North Korea, Putin traveled to Vietnam, where he received a ceremonial welcome and engaged with top Vietnamese officials to strengthen ties with a longstanding partner.

During their meeting, Kim characterized the relationship between North Korea and Russia as a “fiery friendship,” labeling the agreement as their “strongest ever treaty,” effectively positioning it akin to an alliance. He pledged full support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine, while Putin described the pact as a “breakthrough document” that signifies mutual aspirations to elevate their partnership.

The historical backdrop includes a 1961 treaty between North Korea and the Soviet Union, which mandated Soviet military intervention in the event of aggression against North Korea. This agreement was replaced in 2000 with a less stringent pact following the USSR’s dissolution. The exact nature of the new agreement’s provisions regarding mutual assistance in the face of aggression remains unspecified.

Amid accusations and denials, the U.S. and South Korea have alleged North Korean involvement in supplying artillery, missiles, and other military equipment to aid Russia in Ukraine, potentially in exchange for advanced military technologies and assistance.

Russia, along with China, has consistently shielded North Korea from stringent international sanctions over its nuclear activities, further complicating global efforts to curb Pyongyang’s weapons development.

The visit featured symbolic gestures, including exchanges of gifts between the leaders. Putin presented Kim with a Russian-made limousine and other items, while Kim reciprocated with artwork depicting Putin.

The trip also included cultural engagements, such as attending a concert together, where both leaders were seen enjoying the performances and exchanging jovial moments.

The leaders also signed agreements aimed at infrastructure development, healthcare cooperation, and potential military-technical collaboration, with Putin not ruling out further deepening of such ties.

In response to Putin’s diplomatic outreach, reactions varied globally. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken criticized Russia’s efforts as desperate attempts to bolster support amid ongoing aggression in Ukraine. Meanwhile, South Korea’s government expressed cautious interest in the outcomes of the summit, particularly concerning North Korea’s commitments and Russia’s potential responses to regional security challenges.

Overall, Putin’s visit to Pyongyang is seen as a strategic move to assert Russia’s global influence beyond the Ukraine conflict, potentially unsettling Western powers and underscoring alternative alliances amidst heightened geopolitical tensions.

Putin and Kim Forge Mutual Defense Pact Amid Rising Global Tensions

Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un have formalized an agreement ensuring mutual assistance between Russia and North Korea in the event of aggression against either nation. This announcement came after Putin’s elaborate visit to Pyongyang, his first since 2000. Kim Jong Un remarked that this agreement elevates their relationship to “a new, high level of alliance.”

This burgeoning partnership has caused concern in the West and could have significant global implications. Analysts suggest that this defense pact might lead Moscow to support Pyongyang in future conflicts on the Korean peninsula, while North Korea could potentially aid Russia in its war in Ukraine.

Kim has been accused of supplying Russia with weapons, while Putin is suspected of providing North Korea with space technology beneficial to its missile program. The last meeting between the two leaders was in Russia in September. On Wednesday, they signed a “comprehensive partnership agreement” including a clause for “mutual assistance in the event of aggression” against either country. However, Putin did not specify what constitutes aggression.

Putin has faced setbacks in Ukraine, particularly with dwindling weapon supplies. During Kim’s recent visit to Russia, they discussed military cooperation, and there is growing evidence of North Korean missiles being used by Russia in Ukraine. Meanwhile, NATO countries have recently allowed Ukraine to use Western weapons on Russian soil, a move that Kyiv hopes will shift the conflict in its favor.

Putin warned of repercussions and has considered arming Western adversaries with long-range weapons, something North Korea is developing. He criticized the West’s decision, calling it “a gross violation” of international restrictions. He also condemned Western sanctions on Russia and North Korea, stating that they “do not tolerate the language of blackmail and diktat” and would resist the West’s “sanctions strangling” to maintain “hegemony.” Kim praised the treaty, calling it a historic moment and expressed “full support and solidarity” for Russia in its war in Ukraine.

The treaty is likely to provoke South Korea, which had warned Russia against excessively favoring North Korea. South Korean National Security Adviser Chang Ho-jin urged Moscow to consider which Korean nation would be more important post-war. Rachel Lee of the Stimson Center highlighted the significant global implications of this treaty, suggesting it could exacerbate weapons proliferation if North Korea continues supplying weapons to Russia and Russia provides advanced military technology to North Korea. Chad O’Carroll of NK News speculated that the agreement could lead to North Korean soldiers assisting Russia in Ukraine.

Putin’s visit began with a late arrival in Pyongyang, where he was greeted warmly by Kim and given a red carpet welcome. North Korean state media showed the capital brightly lit, a stark contrast to the country’s usual electricity shortages. The welcome ceremony featured choreographed displays of devotion and North Korean propaganda. Putin’s motorcade was greeted by people waving Russian flags and bouquets, chanting “welcome Putin” and “North Korea Russia friendship.”

At Kim Il Sung Square, a large crowd awaited Putin’s arrival, cheering and releasing balloons as he stepped out of his car. Putin and Kim walked past soldiers on white stallions, a nod to Kim’s grandfather’s historic role. They reviewed soldiers while standing in front of large portraits of themselves.

Later, Putin attended a gala concert and state banquet featuring dishes like cod shaped like a white flower, Korean noodles, and chicken soup with ginseng and pumpkin. Before leaving for Vietnam, Putin and Kim exchanged gifts. Putin gave Kim a second luxury Aurus car, a ceremonial admiral’s dagger, and a tea set, while Kim presented works of art featuring Putin’s likeness.

Putin’s previous visit to Pyongyang in 2000 was shortly after he took power and met Kim’s father, Kim Jong Il. North Korea’s economy has worsened under international sanctions. Observers believe Kim Jong Un has sought critical aid, such as food, fuel, foreign currency, and technology, from Russia. In the Soviet era, Russia significantly supported the Kim family regime. During Kim’s visit to Russia, Putin promised to help North Korea develop satellites following several failed launches. The U.S. believes North Korea’s satellite program aims to enhance its ballistic missile capabilities due to similar technology.

Both leaders stand to gain diplomatically from their partnership. They are “trying to reduce the pain of international sanctions by creating an alternate network of friends and partners beyond the reach of U.S. sanctions,” noted Jeffrey Lewis from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. This effort supports the “multipolar” worldview promoted by Russia, China, and other states as an alternative to the U.S.-led international order.

Global Nuclear Landscape in 2023: Modernization Efforts, Strategic Shifts, and Diplomatic Challenges Among Nuclear-Armed States

In 2023, the global nuclear landscape was marked by significant advancements among the nine nuclear-armed states: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.

According to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), these countries persisted in modernizing their nuclear capabilities, with several introducing new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems.

The Nuclear-Armed States

United States

As of January 2024, the United States maintained a substantial nuclear arsenal of 5,044 warheads, primarily deployed on ballistic missiles and aircraft. The U.S. continues to enhance its nuclear arsenal, focusing on the reliability and capabilities of its land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers.

Russia

Russia, alongside the United States, holds the majority of the world’s nuclear weapons. Despite some fluctuations, Russia’s military stockpile has remained relatively stable at 5,580 warheads. In 2023, Russia deployed an additional 36 warheads, underscoring its commitment to nuclear deterrence.

United Kingdom

In 2023, the United Kingdom announced plans to increase its warhead stockpile limit from 225 to 260, although no actual expansion occurred that year. This policy shift highlights the UK’s dedication to maintaining a credible nuclear deterrent. Additionally, the UK ceased public disclosure of specific nuclear quantities.

France

France continues to advance its nuclear capabilities, focusing on developing a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile.

China

China’s nuclear arsenal experienced the most rapid growth among the nuclear-armed states, rising from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024. This expansion aligns with China’s strategy to bolster its nuclear deterrent. For the first time, China is believed to have placed some warheads on high operational alert. Projections indicate that China could have as many ICBMs as the United States or Russia by the end of the decade, though its overall stockpile will remain smaller.

India

India slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal, emphasizing the development of new delivery systems. While Pakistan remains the primary target of India’s nuclear deterrent, there is increasing focus on longer-range weapons capable of reaching China. As of January 2024, India was estimated to have 172 stored nuclear warheads. The SIPRI report also highlighted that India was the world’s top arms importer, with a 4.7% increase between 2014-18 and 2019-23.

Pakistan

Pakistan, with an estimated 170 stored warheads, continues to develop its nuclear delivery systems. The ongoing rivalry with India drives Pakistan’s nuclear strategy, with both nations pursuing capabilities to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles. Pakistan’s nuclear posture remains a central element of its national security strategy.

North Korea

By January 2024, North Korea had assembled approximately 50 warheads and possessed sufficient fissile material for up to 90. North Korea’s nuclear ambitions continue to destabilize regional security dynamics, particularly in its tense relations with South Korea.

Israel

Although Israel does not officially acknowledge its nuclear arsenal, it is believed to be modernizing its capabilities. Upgrades to its plutonium production reactor at Dimona suggest ongoing efforts to enhance its nuclear deterrent.

The China-India-Pakistan Equation

The interactions between China, India, and Pakistan are pivotal for regional and global security. According to an ORF report, India was the first country to propose a nuclear test ban treaty and a halt to the production of materials for nuclear weapons, having signed and ratified the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963, which prohibited nuclear explosions in the atmosphere, outer space, and underwater.

However, the discriminatory politics surrounding the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) posed challenges. Despite conducting nuclear tests in 1998, India maintained its commitment to the No-First-Use (NFU) policy, reiterating this stance in its 1999 draft nuclear doctrine and again in 2003.

In 1994, India offered Pakistan an agreement on the no-first-use of nuclear weapons, but regional and historical tensions prevented any agreement from being reached.

Moving towards the east, India and China, both nuclear-armed, have had unstable relations due to longstanding border disputes since the 1950s. While trade between these nations suggests potential mutual benefits, unresolved border issues have hindered bilateral relations.

NATO and Nuclear Sharing

NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangements involve the deployment of US B-61 nuclear bombs in Europe, which remain under US custody and control. In the event of a conflict, these weapons would be delivered by dual-capable aircraft (DCA) from NATO member states, subject to political approval from the Nuclear Planning Group (NPG) and authorization from the US President and UK Prime Minister.

NATO’s nuclear sharing ensures that the benefits, responsibilities, and risks of nuclear deterrence are distributed across the alliance.

Nuclear Diplomacy

The United Nations plays a key role in promoting nuclear disarmament. The suspension of the New START treaty—a nuclear arms reduction agreement between Russia and the US—by Russia, along with ongoing challenges in arms control, highlight the fragile state of nuclear diplomacy. Despite these setbacks, efforts continue within the UN framework to address nuclear threats and promote disarmament.

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), though not yet in force, remains a key instrument in the UN’s efforts to curb nuclear proliferation. Despite Russia’s withdrawal from the treaty’s ratification, it continues to participate in the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO).

“The United States and Russia have fundamentally divergent views on when arms control should be pursued and what purpose arms control should serve in the current strategic environment,” according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “While the United States’ position remains that cooperation to manage the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals is in the best interests of the international order, Moscow believes current U.S. efforts to reinstate arms control are part of a wider effort to take advantage of Russia as it is bogged down in Ukraine.”

The deteriorating global security environment, exacerbated particularly by conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, continues to pose significant challenges to nuclear diplomacy.

Key Powers Snub Joint Communique at Swiss Summit Aimed at Ending Ukraine War

A two-day summit in Switzerland focused on finding a resolution to the Ukraine war concluded with key nations refusing to endorse a joint communique accepted by over 80 countries and international organizations.

India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates, all of which maintain significant trade relations with Russia as part of the BRICS economic group, participated in the weekend summit but declined to sign the joint statement.

The communique reaffirmed the signatories’ commitment to “refraining from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, the principles of sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of all states, including Ukraine, within their internationally recognized borders.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized at a press conference alongside leaders from the European Union, Ghana, Canada, Chile, and Switzerland that it was “important that all participants of this summit support Ukraine’s territorial integrity because there will be no lasting peace without territorial integrity.”

More than 100 countries and organizations assembled at a picturesque lakeside resort near Lucerne to rally support for the 10-point peace plan Zelensky introduced in late 2022.

The plan includes calls for a cessation of hostilities, the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian soil, and the reestablishment of Ukraine’s pre-war borders with Russia—terms that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to ever accept.

Notable dignitaries in attendance included leaders from Argentina, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

US Vice President Kamala Harris attended the summit and announced a $1.5 billion aid package intended for humanitarian efforts and to help Kyiv rebuild its damaged infrastructure.

“This high-level attendance shows one thing: the world cares deeply about the war provoked by Russia’s aggression,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

Despite the strong presence of Western democracies, there were questions prior to the event regarding the potential outcomes, especially since neither Russia nor China, which has bolstered the Kremlin’s resistance to Western sanctions through close trade relations, were present.

The communique issued on Sunday indicated that signatories had reached several other agreements. These included allowing Ukraine to operate its nuclear power plants, including the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and ensuring the Kremlin refrains from using or threatening to use nuclear weapons. Additionally, the sides agreed that all children and civilians unlawfully displaced must be returned to Ukraine.

On Friday, the day before the summit commenced, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated the Kremlin’s peace plan, which calls for Ukrainian troops to withdraw from four southern and eastern regions that Moscow claims to have annexed in violation of international law, and for Kyiv to abandon its NATO membership ambitions.

While Russian forces have made modest advances in two of these regions—Donetsk and Luhansk—in recent months, they do not fully occupy all four, which also include Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who accompanied Harris to Switzerland, criticized Putin’s framework, stating it “defies basic morality.”

“He (Putin) said, not only does Ukraine have to give up the territory Russia currently occupies, but Ukraine has to leave additional sovereign Ukrainian territory before Russia will negotiate. And Ukraine must disarm so that it is vulnerable to future Russian aggression down the road. No responsible nation could say that is a reasonable basis for peace,” Sullivan said.

PM Modi Concludes G7 Summit Visit in Italy, Emphasizes Tech Inclusivity and Holds Key Bilaterals

Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded his one-day visit to Italy on Friday, where he participated in the G7 summit and held bilateral discussions with several global leaders, including British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Pope Francis.

In his address at the Outreach session of the G7 summit, held in Italy’s Apulia region, PM Modi emphasized the need to dismantle monopolies in technology, advocating for its innovative use to build an inclusive society. He stated, “Had a very productive day at the G7 Summit in Apulia. Interacted with world leaders and discussed various subjects. Together, we aim to create impactful solutions that benefit the global community and create a better world for future generations.”

PM Modi specifically addressed the importance of eliminating monopolies in technology, with a strong focus on artificial intelligence. He highlighted India’s proactive stance, noting that it is one of the first countries to develop a national strategy on artificial intelligence.

On the sidelines of the summit, PM Modi engaged in meetings with several world leaders, including US President Joe Biden, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, Pope Francis, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Notably, PM Modi’s meeting with President Macron marked his first official bilateral discussion with an international leader since he commenced his third term as Prime Minister earlier this month.

Apart from India, Italy extended invitations to leaders from 11 developing countries across Africa, South America, and the Indo-Pacific region to participate in the G7 Summit.

G7 Summit 2024: Leaders Tackle Global Economic Stability, Climate Change, and Geopolitical Tensions in Italy

The Group of Seven (G7) nations will convene for the Leaders’ Summit in Italy’s Apulia region from June 13 to 15. Italy took over the group’s presidency earlier this year. The summit is particularly important as the G7—comprising Italy, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union—grapples with various global issues. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, invited as an Outreach Country representative, will make his first international appearance in his third term at this summit.

The meeting’s agenda is extensive, focusing on upholding the “rules-based international system” in the face of Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine, addressing conflicts in the Middle East, and bolstering partnerships with developing countries, particularly in Africa. Other critical priorities include migration, climate change, food security, and the impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) on society.

Origins and Evolution of the G7

The G7 originated from a 1973 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Paris, France, amidst significant economic turmoil, including an oil crisis, rising inflation, and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. This system had pegged the US dollar to gold, with other global currencies linked to the dollar. Over time, the dollar became overvalued, necessitating a new mechanism for exchange rates that required global cooperation. Hence, the idea of a forum for major industrialized democracies to coordinate economic policies was conceived. The first G7 summit was held in 1975 in Rambouillet, France, with leaders from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States, Italy, and Japan. Canada joined the following year.

Since 1977, representatives of the European Economic Community, now the European Union, have also participated. The group expanded to the G8 in 1998 with Russia’s inclusion but reverted to the G7 in 2014 after Russia was suspended due to its annexation of Crimea.

Evolution and Relevance of the G7

Over the years, the G7 has evolved from an economic forum to one addressing a broad spectrum of global challenges. Although it lacks a permanent administrative structure, the G7 rotates its presidency annually, with the presidency serving as a temporary secretariat. The annual summit concludes with a communiqué outlining political commitments, significantly influencing global governance, agenda-setting, and decision-making processes.

However, the G7’s relevance has been questioned as its members’ combined share of global GDP has declined. A Bruegel think tank analysis titled “The G7 is dead, long live the G7” noted that this share dropped from around 50% in the 1970s to about 30% in 2018. The economic rise of China, India, and other emerging economies has sparked calls for a more representative global governance structure. In contrast, the G20, established in response to the 2008 financial crisis, is seen as a more inclusive forum. Bruegel argued that the G20’s creation underscored the G7’s inadequacy in handling modern crises. However, due to its size, the G20 was considered “too big and heterogeneous to make decisions when not mired in deep crisis.”

Bruegel proposed a reconfigured G7+ that would include a common euro-zone representative and make room for China, India, and Brazil, thereby better reflecting the current global economic landscape in terms of both GDP and population.

There are also concerns about the G7’s internal cohesion. For instance, former US President Donald Trump often clashed with other G7 leaders and skipped a climate meeting at the 2019 summit.

Despite these challenges, the G7 has made significant contributions to international policies, including coordinating economic strategies, promoting free and fair trade practices, shaping global governance issues, and supporting security cooperation and development assistance.

Key Issues at the 2024 G7 Summit

The upcoming G7 summit in Italy is significant for several reasons. Firstly, it aims to coordinate economic policies to stabilize the global economy amidst concerns over inflation and trade tensions. Secondly, the summit will focus on addressing climate change by discussing strategies to reduce carbon emissions and promote sustainable energy sources. With climate records recently being broken, collective action is crucial.

Thirdly, learning from the Covid-19 pandemic, the G7 will prioritize global health initiatives, including pandemic preparedness and vaccine distribution. Additionally, the summit will address geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning relations with China and Russia, and ongoing conflicts with global implications. Lastly, the G7 will explore regulating emerging technologies, data privacy, and cybersecurity to ensure they benefit global development.

The G7’s ability to adapt to changing global dynamics and address contemporary challenges will be crucial for its continued relevance. The outcomes of this year’s summit will provide insight into how the group intends to navigate the complex issues facing the world today.

Canadian Parliament Rocked by Allegations of Foreign Interference, Calls for Transparency Intensify

Canada, known for its political stability, is currently experiencing heightened anxiety over potential foreign interference within its government. This unease stems from a recent report by Canadian lawmakers, suggesting that some politicians might be covertly collaborating with foreign governments. Released by an all-party national security committee, the heavily redacted findings have added a layer of complexity to an already ongoing investigation into alleged foreign meddling in Canada’s 2019 and 2021 elections.

The National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians (NSICOP) report is groundbreaking as it implicates Canadian lawmakers in potentially aiding foreign interference in political campaigns and leadership contests. The timing of this revelation is critical, given the global context of elections being influenced by advanced technologies and assertive foreign entities testing the resilience of democracies worldwide.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has found himself on the defensive since these allegations surfaced on Monday. Meanwhile, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has demanded transparency from the government. “The national security committee indicates there are members of this House that have knowingly worked for foreign hostile governments,” Poilievre stated on Wednesday. “Canadians have a right to know who and what is the information — who are they?”

The report’s findings have prompted calls for Canada’s national police force to investigate possible criminal charges. Additionally, the revelations have sparked a debate on whether Canada’s current deterrence measures are sufficient to curb foreign interference, despite the country’s highly regarded political and legal systems.

The NSICOP report detailed that “semi-witting or witting” parliamentarians had engaged with foreign missions to influence voters during campaigns, accepted money from these entities either knowingly or through deliberate ignorance, and shared confidential information with foreign diplomats. The committee, possessing top-security clearance, based its conclusions on over 4,000 documents and roughly 1,000 pieces of evidence, highlighting China and India as significant foreign interference threats to Canada.

The intelligence indicated that unnamed parliamentarians had been directed by foreign diplomats to manipulate parliamentary business to benefit foreign states. One particularly damaging aspect of the report points to Canada’s inadequacy in addressing long-standing issues concerning the use of national security information in criminal proceedings, suggesting this as a reason why criminal charges for such activities are improbable.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland acknowledged the seriousness of the issue but sidestepped questions about revealing the identities of the implicated parliamentarians. “We should recognize this is a new time,” she remarked, emphasizing the goal of authoritarian regimes to undermine democracies by fostering public distrust in governments. However, Freeland did not agree that public disclosure of names would necessarily benefit democracy, and she avoided further comments on the matter during subsequent inquiries.

In response to earlier allegations of Chinese interference in Canadian elections, the Trudeau government had already initiated an inquiry in September. These allegations included claims that the Chinese government mobilized voters against a Conservative candidate in Western Canada and supported a Liberal candidate in Toronto. Justice Marie-Josée Hogue was appointed to lead the investigation into foreign interference and election meddling, a topic also drawing significant interest from the U.S. Congress.

Conservative MP Michael Chong, who testified before the U.S. congressional-executive commission on China about being targeted by Beijing for his stance on Uyghur issues, discovered through media reports that a Chinese diplomat had been tasked with gathering information on him and his family. Other Canadian parliamentarians, including NDP MP Jenny Kwan, have also been warned by Canada’s spy agency about being surveilled by China.

Justice Hogue’s initial report last month noted that the Canadian government’s poor handling of foreign interference has eroded public trust in the democratic process. Although her findings indicated that foreign interference did not significantly alter the outcomes of the 2019 or 2021 federal elections, which saw Trudeau’s Liberals win back-to-back minority governments, the revelations continue to stir political tensions.

Following this week’s disclosures, Conservative MP Michael Chong urged the government to identify the implicated parliamentarians. However, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc responded firmly, “We all know that no responsible government would reveal names under these types of confidential circumstances.” LeBlanc reiterated on Thursday that releasing names based on preliminary intelligence would be irresponsible, explaining that such intelligence is often unverified or uncorroborated.

David McGuinty, chair of the NSICOP, clarified that the decision to release the names is beyond his authority. He emphasized that he and the other committee members, who have top-secret security clearance, are bound by Canada’s Security of Information Act and face prosecution if they inadvertently disclose classified information. McGuinty avoided commenting on whether he felt uneasy working alongside potential collaborators of foreign interference, focusing instead on the need for government action. “I’m more concerned about the fact that now the government has to move forward on this,” he stated.

UN Security Council Backs US-Led Ceasefire Plan for Gaza, Urges Hamas to Agree

The United Nations Security Council has endorsed a U.S. resolution supporting a ceasefire plan for the conflict in Gaza. The resolution outlines conditions for a comprehensive ceasefire, the release of hostages held by Hamas, the return of deceased hostages’ remains, and an exchange of Palestinian prisoners. The resolution passed with 14 out of 15 Security Council members voting in favor; Russia abstained.

The resolution acknowledges Israel’s acceptance of the ceasefire plan and urges Hamas to agree as well. This aligns the Security Council with several governments and the G7 group of wealthy nations in backing the three-part plan presented by President Joe Biden on May 31. Biden initially described it as an Israeli ceasefire proposal.

Israel’s proposal, submitted to the U.S. and mediators Qatar and Egypt, is reportedly more detailed than Biden’s summary. The full content remains undisclosed, and it is uncertain if it differs from what Biden presented. Israel’s three-man war cabinet agreed to the proposal, but it has not been shared with the broader government, where some far-right ministers have already voiced opposition.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not explicitly stated his support for Biden’s version of the plan. The resolution’s approval came soon after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with regional leaders, including Netanyahu, to garner support for the ceasefire. Before the UN vote, Blinken urged regional leaders to pressure Hamas to accept the ceasefire, stating, “If you want a ceasefire, press Hamas to say yes.”

Hamas has indicated support for parts of the plan and welcomed the Security Council resolution in a statement on Monday. They emphasized their demand for a permanent ceasefire, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the exchange of Palestinian prisoners. Hamas is prepared to cooperate with mediators and engage in “indirect negotiations,” although its political leadership in Doha has not formally responded to the proposal, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.

The proposal’s ultimate goal includes a significant reconstruction plan for Gaza, which has suffered extensive destruction. The first phase involves a hostage-prisoner swap and a short-term ceasefire. The second phase aims for a “permanent end to hostilities” and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, as outlined in the U.S. draft resolution. The third phase focuses on Gaza’s long-term outlook and initiates a multi-year reconstruction plan.

The resolution follows President Biden’s announcement ten days prior that Israel had agreed to the plan. While Biden framed the peace initiative as Israeli, the U.S. is aware of Israel’s internal political challenges. Some far-right ministers threaten to collapse the government if the deal progresses, reflecting the fractious nature of Israel’s ruling coalition. Former general and centrist Benny Gantz’s resignation from the war cabinet on Sunday exacerbates this instability.

Biden’s account on X (formerly Twitter) highlighted the resolution’s passage, stating, “Hamas says it wants a ceasefire. This deal is an opportunity to prove they mean it.” U.S. Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, remarked, “Today we voted for peace.” UK Ambassador Barbara Woodward described the Gaza situation as “catastrophic” and urged all parties to seize this opportunity for lasting peace and stability. UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron also welcomed the resolution.

Russia abstained, with its UN ambassador Vassily Nebenzia questioning the clarity of the deal and Israel’s true commitment to ending its military operation in Gaza. Nebenzia asked, “Given the many statements from Israel on the extension of the war until Hamas is completely defeated… what specifically has Israel agreed to?” Despite voting in favor, China also expressed concerns about the resolution’s effectiveness, referencing previous UN resolutions on the conflict that were not implemented.

On March 25, the UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for a ceasefire. The U.S. had previously vetoed similar measures, arguing that such actions would hinder ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas. However, the U.S. abstained from the March resolution rather than vetoing it. Netanyahu criticized the U.S. at that time for “abandoning” its stance linking a ceasefire to the release of hostages.

The conflict began when Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, resulting in approximately 1,200 deaths and the capture of about 251 hostages. According to the Hamas-run health ministry, Gaza’s death toll has exceeded 37,000 since Israel’s retaliatory response.

The Security Council’s resolution and the broader international support for the ceasefire plan reflect a significant diplomatic effort to address the ongoing conflict and pave the way for lasting peace and reconstruction in Gaza.

Global Tensions and Political Shifts: Israel’s Hostage Rescue, Macron Dissolves Parliament, Trump Faces Probation Interview, Peltier’s Last Parole Bid, and Hair Loss Drug Concerns

Rescued Hostages, But the War Continues

Joy in Israel over the successful rescue of four hostages has quickly faded as the harsh realities of the ongoing nine-month war in Gaza persist. Despite the operation’s success, deep-seated divisions remain largely unchanged. The rescue operation on Saturday saw the liberation of four hostages, including Noa Argamani, who was abducted on October 7 during the Nova music festival—a moment captured on video. This success, however, came at a heavy cost. Gaza’s Health Ministry reported on Sunday that at least 270 Palestinians were killed and another 700 were injured, making it one of the bloodiest days in the conflict. Many more are believed to be buried under rubble.

In a significant political development, Benny Gantz announced his resignation from Israel’s war Cabinet. Gantz, a major political rival of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stated his resignation was due to the failure to establish a postwar plan for Gaza. In a televised address, Gantz accused Netanyahu of obstructing Israel’s path to “a real victory” and apologized to the families of the hostages, admitting, “we failed” to bring most of them home.

Macron Dissolves French Parliament

In a surprising political move, President Emmanuel Macron has decided to dissolve the lower house of France’s parliament, leaving the country’s political fate in the hands of voters. This decision follows a significant defeat for his party at the hands of the far right in the European Union’s parliamentary elections on Saturday. Marine Le Pen’s far-right, anti-immigration National Rally party outperformed Macron’s centrist, pro-European Renaissance party, according to projections by French opinion poll institutes.

Macron’s decision to call for new elections is a high-risk gamble. If an opposition party secures a majority in parliament, it could lead to a challenging cohabitation scenario, where Macron would have to appoint a prime minister from an opposing party, potentially leading to significant policy conflicts. Macron’s current term as president still has three years remaining. The legislative elections are scheduled to take place in two rounds on June 30 and July 7.

Trump to Attend Probation Interview

Former President Donald Trump is set to participate in a virtual interview with a New York City probation officer today, a requirement following his guilty verdict in the hush money trial. Sources familiar with the situation said that Trump will conduct the interview from his Mar-a-Lago residence, with his attorney Todd Blanche present, using a specially secured virtual network.

Legal experts have noted the unusual nature of a probation interview conducted via video conference, yet acknowledged that having a former president visit a probation office in person would also be unprecedented. The interview could cover various topics related to Trump’s trial and sentencing.

Leonard Peltier’s Last Chance for Parole

Native American activist Leonard Peltier, who has consistently maintained his innocence in the murders of two FBI agents nearly 50 years ago, is scheduled for a full parole hearing today. This is Peltier’s first hearing in 15 years and is considered by his supporters to be his last chance for release. At 79 years old, Peltier’s age, declining health, and nonviolent behavior in prison are being emphasized by his attorney as reasons to grant parole.

Peltier was involved in a 1975 gunfight on the Pine Ridge Reservation in South Dakota, which resulted in the deaths of two FBI agents. His case has been the subject of extensive scrutiny regarding the investigation and trial procedures. Despite these concerns, the FBI remains firm in its opposition to Peltier’s release.

Surge in Hair Loss Medication Usage and Concerns

An increasing number of young men are turning to medication to prevent hair loss, sparking concerns about potential side effects. An NBC News report revealed that finasteride prescriptions have nearly tripled in the U.S. over the past seven years. A New York City dermatologist mentioned, “It’s like water in my clinic. I’m prescribing it all the time.”

While doctors generally consider the daily pill safe, it must be taken continuously to maintain its effects. Controversy surrounds the drug due to reports of impotence and other side effects that may persist even after discontinuing the medication. This has led to ongoing debates about the drug’s safety and the need for awareness about its potential risks.

Political Briefs

Abortion Rights:The Supreme Court is poised to rule on two major abortion cases this month, the first since the overturning of Roe v. Wade. One case involves the abortion pill mifepristone, and the other pertains to a near-total ban on abortion in Idaho. Supreme Court reporter Lawrence Hurley discusses the implications of these rulings.

Biden in France:During his visit to France, President Joe Biden sought to draw a stark contrast with his Republican rival, Donald Trump, without mentioning him by name. Biden’s five-day trip culminated in a visit to a cemetery imbued with political symbolism, underscoring his differences with Trump’s policies and approach.

These events illustrate a world grappling with significant political, social, and legal challenges, from the enduring conflict in Gaza and political upheaval in France to high-stakes legal proceedings in the United States and evolving medical controversies.

Emmanuel Macron’s Political Gamble: Dissolving Parliament After Electoral Defeat

In Brussels, during previous EU leaders’ summits, Emmanuel Macron has faced criticism for his efforts to seize the spotlight. However, on Sunday night, he indisputably captured attention, albeit perhaps not in the manner he intended.

As votes for the European Parliament continued to be tallied, Macron emerged as the dominant figure in the headlines. His anticipated setback in the poll against French hard-right nationalists was no surprise, but his subsequent decision to dissolve the French national parliament came as a shock.

While he had toyed with the notion following his party’s defeat in France’s previous general election, few had expected such a move at this juncture. It’s a bold move, albeit from a position of vulnerability.

Identifying himself as a centrist and fervent supporter of European integration, Macron faces the prospect of navigating a snap general election scheduled for June 30 and July 7. This election could potentially force him to collaborate with a prime minister from the Eurosceptic far right—a scenario unprecedented in French politics.

Marine Le Pen, often depicted as Macron’s political adversary, proclaimed her party’s readiness to govern on Sunday. While France has previously witnessed instances where the president and prime minister hailed from different political factions, the appointment of a far-right prime minister would mark a historic departure.

In recent years, Le Pen has endeavored to broaden her party’s appeal and soften its extremist image. Her party’s significant victory at the EU level, securing more than double the votes garnered by Macron’s Renaissance party, has bolstered hopes of success in the upcoming snap election.

The success of Le Pen’s party reflects a broader trend across the EU, with the hard right and nationalist factions making gains fueled by concerns over migration, inflation, and the cost of environmental reforms. However, their ability to shape future EU policy remains uncertain, with centrist parties maintaining a firm grip on the majority of seats in the EU chamber.

Despite their collective grievances and populist rhetoric, uniting hard-right parties from different countries to exert influence at the EU level poses a formidable challenge. Divergent national priorities and ideological disparities, particularly regarding issues such as support for Ukraine against Russia, undermine cohesive action.

The hard right’s impact on environmental policy represents a tangible example of their influence on EU governance. Despite the EU’s ambitious climate agenda, the loss of seats by green parties in the European Parliament vote underscores growing public apprehension towards environmental regulations amid economic uncertainty.

Mass protests by farmers and public resistance to stringent environmental rules have provided fodder for the hard right to portray themselves as champions of the people against distant elites. Consequently, several EU environmental regulations were diluted or revoked ahead of the parliamentary vote, signaling potential setbacks in green initiatives.

As the nationalist right gains traction, traditional political labels become increasingly inadequate in gauging their influence. Some hard-right nationalists are adopting more mainstream positions to broaden their appeal, while center-right politicians mimic far-right rhetoric on contentious issues like migration and the environment to retain support.

Despite the media focus on far-right gains, it is the center-right that secured the largest number of seats and made significant gains in the European Parliament. However, such victories often pale in comparison to the sensationalism surrounding the rise of the far right.

In summary, Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament following his electoral defeat marks a pivotal moment in French politics, with far-reaching implications for EU governance and the balance of power within the European Parliament. As nationalist sentiments gain momentum, the landscape of European politics is poised for further upheaval, challenging traditional notions of political affiliation and influence.

Intense Clashes Across Ukraine: Key Battles in Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut as Russia Suffers Heavy Losses

In recent developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, significant military activities have been reported across various regions, indicating ongoing intense clashes and strategic maneuvers by both sides.

In the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian forces faced substantial artillery and mortar fire from Russian troops in the Kharkiv region, particularly around the settlements of Novomlynsk, Figolivka, and Dvorichna. Similarly, in the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempted offensive actions near Kreminna and Bilogorivka in the Luhansk region, though these efforts were largely unsuccessful. Airstrikes targeted multiple settlements in the Donetsk region, including Dibrova and Spirne, and artillery fire hit areas like Nevske and Bilogorivka in Luhansk.

The situation in Bakhmut remains critical, with Russian forces conducting unsuccessful offensive actions towards Klishchiivka and launching airstrikes near Bila Hora in Donetsk. Ukrainian settlements such as Vasyukivka and Ivanivske were subjected to heavy artillery fire. Conversely, in the Avdiivka direction, no major offensive operations were reported, though airstrikes and artillery shelling continued in areas like Novokalynove and Pervomaiske

In Marinka, Ukrainian defenders repelled 13 attacks, while Russian forces launched airstrikes and artillery fire on several settlements, including Maksimilianivka and Novomykhailivka. In the Shakhtarsk direction, Russian airstrikes hit Vugledar and Zolota Niva, with additional shelling reported in Prechistivka and NovoukrainkaThe Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions saw continued defensive operations by Russian forces, who conducted airstrikes and artillery shelling in multiple settlements, including Olhivskyi in the Zaporizhzhia region and Odradokamyanka in Kherson. Ukrainian forces responded with significant airstrikes and artillery attacks, targeting Russian personnel, anti-aircraft systems, and other critical military infrastructure

On the diplomatic front, tensions continue to rise. Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister, Hanna Maliar, reported that Russian forces are struggling to maintain control over occupied territories, indicating a potential shift in the conflict dynamics. Moreover, Ukraine has been receiving increased military support from Western allies, including advanced weaponry, which has bolstered its defensive and offensive capabilities

Humanitarian concerns are also prominent. The conflict has led to severe civilian casualties and displacement. Efforts to evacuate civilians from conflict zones are ongoing, though they face significant challenges due to continued hostilities and infrastructure damage. The international community remains engaged, with various organizations providing aid and support to affected populations

The situation remains fluid, with both sides experiencing significant losses. Ukrainian forces reported that Russian manpower losses were particularly high, with approximately 880 soldiers killed in recent engagements. This highlights the intense and costly nature of the ongoing conflict

Overall, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of abating, with both military and diplomatic efforts continuing to shape the course of events. The international community watches closely, aware of the broader implications for regional and global stability.

Biden Commemorates D-Day Anniversary, Vows Continued Support for Ukraine and Democratic Values

President Joe Biden commemorated the 80th anniversary of D-Day on Thursday, using the occasion to warn against isolationism and affirm the U.S. commitment to Ukraine. Speaking in Normandy, Biden emphasized the strength alliances provide, calling the D-Day beaches “a powerful illustration of how alliances make us stronger,” and prayed Americans never forget this lesson.

Biden addressed a crowd of aging World War II veterans, many over 100 years old and in wheelchairs. He acknowledged that soon “the last living voices of those who fought and bled on D-Day will no longer be with us,” urging the nation to remember the significance of the postwar democratic order. “We cannot let what happened here be lost in the silence of the years to come,” Biden stated. “The fact that they were heroes here that day does not absolve us of what we have to do today.”

His speech combined solemn reflections with urgent calls for action. Flanked by French President Emmanuel Macron, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and dozens of American veterans, Biden praised the bravery of World War II’s last living fighters and linked their efforts to the current conflict in Ukraine. Highlighting the recent NATO expansion and the Ukrainian fight against Russian invasion, he promised never to yield to autocrats like Russian President Vladimir Putin. The coalition supporting Ukraine “will not walk away,” Biden declared, warning that “all of Europe will be threatened” if Ukraine falls. “The autocrats of the world are watching closely … to surrender to bullies, to bow down to dictators, is simply unthinkable.”

This speech marked the beginning of a multi-day trip, during which Biden will honor one of the most significant military battles in U.S. history and reiterate the importance of democratic values. Biden arrived at the Normandy American Cemetery early, met with 41 D-Day veterans—most of whom are over 100 years old—and recorded an interview with ABC News anchor David Muir. Alongside First Lady Jill Biden, the president greeted each veteran personally in a gazebo overlooking Omaha Beach, saluting and shaking hands with all before posing for pictures.

To one 102-year-old veteran, Biden remarked, “The greatest generation ever, man. You saved the world.” He bent down to look another veteran in the eyes and repeated, “You saved the world.”

As the ceremony began, approximately 170 American WWII veterans were brought in on wheelchairs, highlighting both the time elapsed since D-Day and the likelihood that this would be the last major commemoration with a significant number of living veterans present. Macron, who spoke before Biden, emphasized the “eternal bond” between the U.S. and France, describing it as a “blood tie, shed for liberty.” He honored the soldiers who landed on Normandy’s beaches, noting their sacrifices and recounting several veterans’ histories of service. “The free world needed each of you and you said yes when we asked for help,” Macron said, switching to English for this part of his speech. “And you are back here today at home.”

Later that afternoon, Biden planned to attend a larger D-Day commemoration at Omaha Beach alongside world leaders such as Macron, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who is likely to become NATO’s next secretary general. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was also expected to attend. Biden and Zelenskyy were anticipated to have a brief discussion on recent developments in Russia’s invasion and potential additional security measures.

On Friday, Biden will return to Normandy to deliver a more extensive speech at Pointe du Hoc, a significant 100-foot cliff scaled by Army Rangers during the D-Day invasion. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan explained that these back-to-back speeches aim to “draw a through line” from World War II, through the Cold War, to the present day. “The Pointe du Hoc speech is a speech about, in his view, timeless principles — principles that have served as the foundation of American security and American democracy for generations — including the generation that scaled those cliffs, including today’s generation, including the next generation,” Sullivan told reporters on Air Force One.

In his address, Biden underscored the connection between the sacrifices of the past and the current global struggle for democracy, using the memory of D-Day to highlight the importance of unity and continued vigilance against authoritarianism.

UNICEF Report: 181 Million Children Suffer from Severe Food Poverty Amid Global Crises

Many children worldwide are not getting enough to eat, but what does “not enough” look like? In East Africa, it means babies receive a mix of breast milk and maize porridge. In Yemen, it’s a paste made of flour and water. In conflict zones like Gaza, children might eat raw lemon and weeds.

A new UNICEF report examines what children in 137 low- and middle-income countries are being fed and its impact on their growth and development. The findings are alarming: one in four children under five experience “severe food poverty,” meaning they consume two or fewer food groups daily. “It amounts to 181 million children who are deprived of the diets they need to survive,” says Harriet Torlesse, a nutrition specialist at UNICEF and the lead author of the report. “If you think about these diets, they really don’t contain the range of vitamins and minerals and proteins that children need to grow and develop.”

Nutrition experts, in discussions with NPR, highlighted that the world is not progressing in combating malnutrition and hunger. The COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, inflation, and localized conflicts have exacerbated food supply disruptions and increased food prices.

However, the report also notes some positive developments, showing that several low-income countries have made strides in providing better nutrition to children under five. Here are four key takeaways from the report:

  1. Not Just About Quantity, But Quality of Food

Richmond Aryeetey, a professor of nutrition at the University of Ghana, explains that the issue is twofold: “There are those who are not getting enough who would fall into the full poverty criteria. And then there are also those who potentially have the opportunity to get enough but are being fed unhealthy food.” Aggressive marketing of snacks and sugary beverages, particularly targeting children, plays a significant role in this. In low-income countries, regulating these industries is more challenging. Deanna Olney, Director of the Nutrition, Diets, and Health Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute, adds, “One of the features of these snack foods is that they’re often really cheap and they fill you up. And so, people are inclined to buy them. But if they were more expensive because of taxes, you know, then maybe they’d be less inclined to choose those for their children.”

The prevalence of ultra-processed foods contributes to rising rates of overweight and obesity among children, an issue needing more attention.

  1. Conflict Zones and Acute Child Hunger

While conflict is not the primary driver of child hunger globally, it leads to some of the worst cases, notably in Sudan, Somalia, and Gaza. UNICEF’s data shows that since December, 9 out of 10 children in Gaza have faced severe food insecurity. Harriet Torlesse remarks, “Children in Gaza at this point in time are barely eating any nutritious foods at all. Before the war in Gaza, only 13% of children were living in severe food poverty.”

Technological advances have improved the measurement of food intake in conflict zones, and Gaza currently has the highest documented rate of severe malnutrition.

  1. Severe Food Poverty’s Impact on Child Development

Children living in severe food poverty are significantly more likely to suffer from wasting, where a child is too thin for their height, indicative of life-threatening malnutrition. Over 13 million children under five are affected by this extreme condition. Torlesse notes, “We know that these children don’t do well at school. They earn less income as adults, and they struggle to escape from income poverty. So not only do they suffer throughout the course of their life, their children, too, are likely to suffer from malnutrition.”

Malnutrition stunts not only physical growth but also brain development, limiting a child’s ability to fully contribute to their community and country later in life. Richmond Aryeetey highlights the economic impact with a study from 2016: “The estimate was that Ghana was losing close to about $6.4 million annually because of children who are not being fed adequately. That’s a lot of money being lost because we are not feeding our children well.”

  1. Effective Solutions and Success Stories

There is hope, as several low-income countries have successfully reduced severe child food poverty. Nepal and Burkina Faso have halved their rates, and Rwanda has achieved a one-third reduction. These countries share common strategies leading to success. “The first being they’ve all made a real, deliberate effort to improve the supply of local nutritious foods. Be it pulses or vegetables or poultry,” says Torlesse. Reducing dependency on imported food is crucial for minimizing hunger.

Other countries are combating ultra-processed foods. In Peru, legislation mandates that processed foods and beverages carry warning labels listing sugar, fat, and salt content, and a 25% tax on high-sugar drinks has been introduced.

Nepal’s nationwide cash grants to poor families have increased the purchase of nutritious foods like meat and pulses. Additionally, efforts within health systems have provided essential counseling and support, helping caregivers feed their children with locally available, nutritious foods.

Richmond Aryeetey underscores the need for a more comprehensive approach to tackling child hunger: “…we are sending people to the moon. We are doing all kinds of technologically advanced stuff, and yet we are not able to feed children. It’s really a shame.”

While severe food poverty remains a critical issue affecting millions of children globally, targeted efforts in improving local food supply and regulating unhealthy food options have shown promising results. A concerted global effort is needed to ensure that every child has access to the nutritious food they need to grow and thrive.

Why Modi Underperformed

India’s prime minister will balk at needing allies to stay in power, but coalition rule has proved to have benefits for large democracies.

From pundits to polls, there was a wide expectation this year that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would not just win a rare third consecutive term but would secure an even bigger parliamentary majority than he had before. As it emerged on Tuesday, India’s voters had other ideas. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the most seats—more than the entire opposition alliance combined—but will need the help of coalition allies to form a government. Modi has never needed to share power before, and it’s anyone’s guess as to how he will adapt to the vulnerabilities of coalition politics.

What will the surprising election results mean for politics in India and for India’s place in the world? I spoke with two experts on FP Live: Milan Vaishnav, the director of the South Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Yamini Aiyar, the former president of New Delhi’s Centre for Policy Research. Subscribers can watch the full discussion on the video box atop this page or download the FP Live podcast. What follows is a condensed and lightly edited transcript.

Ravi Agrawal: There was a wide expectation that Modi would return to power in a landslide. He didn’t. What went wrong?

Milan Vaishnav: If we rewind the clock to January and February of this year, before voting began, every pre-election survey pointed in one direction. And that was an overwhelming majority for the BJP, plus seats for the BJP’s allies known as the NDA. Exit polls reconfirmed that as recently as June 1. But that’s not what we saw. We saw a BJP that fell short of a governing majority. It will only be in power thanks to the help and assistance of its coalition partners.

The overarching message or takeaway for me was that it really wasn’t clear what this election was about. It’s such an obvious question to ask, but I have no answer for it. And this really hurt the BJP. There was no defining economic, national security, emotive issue. And what ended up happening, in broad strokes, was more of a classic state-by-state contest where local factors, incumbency, caste equations, party dynamics, alliances mattered much more. The BJP is on much weaker ground there. They have been the incumbent for 10 years. They have a motley group of opposition parties which have banded together with the explicit purpose of keeping the BJP out of power. There was some upset within the BJP’s ranks. They replaced over 100 of their sitting MPs, bringing in defectors and turncoats from other parties.This is important because the BJP is a rank-and-file, cadre-based party, so they don’t necessarily take very kindly to people coming from the outside. And so they really struggled to do something that we think of as part of the BJP’s strength, which is crafting a narrative.

Putin Warns of Arming Anti-Western Nations in Response to Ukraine Weapons Supply

Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a stern warning that Moscow might provide arms to nations aiming to strike Western targets. This statement came as he criticized the West’s decision to supply Ukraine with long-range weapons.

Several countries, including the United States, have given Ukraine the go-ahead to attack targets inside Russia. Putin warned such actions could lead to “very serious problems.” He posed a rhetorical question to foreign reporters, “If someone thinks it is possible to supply such weapons to a war zone to attack our territory and create problems for us, why don’t we have the right to supply weapons of the same class to regions of the world where there will be strikes on sensitive facilities of those countries?” He further hinted that Russia’s response could be “asymmetric,” stating, “We will think about it.” However, Putin did not clarify which countries might receive these weapons from Moscow.

Putin specifically criticized Germany, which recently informed Ukraine it could use long-range German-made weapons to hit targets inside Russia. “When they say that there will be more missiles which will hit targets on Russian territory, this definitively destroys Russian-German relations,” Putin declared.

The U.S. has also allowed Ukraine to use American-supplied weapons to strike Russian targets, though only near the Kharkiv region. The White House has prohibited the use of long-range ATACMS missiles on Russian soil. Nonetheless, recent reports from a U.S. senator and a Western official indicate that Ukraine has used U.S. weapons for strikes inside Russia.

The fighting has intensified north-east of Kharkiv following a new Russian offensive across Ukraine’s northern border. Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, lies just 30km (18 miles) from the border.

UK Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron stated that it is up to Ukraine to decide how to use British weapons, affirming Ukraine’s right to target Russian territory. Ukraine has accused Russia of employing North Korean missiles on its territory, while Western intelligence suggests that Iran-made drones are being used by Russia in the conflict.

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Putin’s comments were made at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, where he also addressed the West’s underestimation of Moscow’s potential use of nuclear weapons. He stated, “For some reason, the West believes that Russia will never use it,” adding that Russia’s nuclear doctrine allows for the use of all available means if the nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are threatened. He emphasized, “This should not be taken lightly, superficially.”

Dismissing concerns about Russia attacking NATO territory, Putin criticized the notion, saying, “You should not make Russia out to be the enemy. You’re only hurting yourself with this, you know?” He ridiculed the idea that Russia intends to attack NATO, calling it “complete nonsense” and “total rubbish.”

The context of these remarks includes the broader geopolitical tensions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The war has prompted significant international responses, including sanctions on Russia and substantial military aid to Ukraine from Western countries. The ongoing conflict has also raised concerns about global stability and the potential for broader escalation.

Putin’s statements reflect a heightened rhetoric that underscores the serious risks associated with the conflict. The threat to arm other nations could destabilize other regions and complicate global security dynamics. His reference to nuclear doctrine highlights the gravity of the situation and the potential for a catastrophic escalation if diplomatic solutions are not pursued.

The situation remains highly fluid, with continuous developments on the battlefield and in diplomatic arenas. Western support for Ukraine, including military supplies, has been a crucial factor in the conflict, influencing the dynamics on the ground. Meanwhile, Russia’s potential countermeasures, including the possible provision of weapons to other nations, introduce additional uncertainties.

The international community continues to monitor the conflict closely, weighing options for further support to Ukraine and measures to deter Russian aggression. The balance between aiding Ukraine and avoiding a wider conflict remains delicate, with significant implications for regional and global security.

Putin’s warnings about arming other nations and the potential use of nuclear weapons represent a serious escalation in rhetoric. His remarks at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum underscore the ongoing tension between Russia and the West, with significant implications for the future of the conflict in Ukraine and global stability. The situation requires careful navigation to prevent further escalation and to seek a resolution that ensures the sovereignty and security of all nations involved.

Israeli Airstrike on UN School in Gaza Kills at Least 35, Including Children, Amid Controversy Over Hamas Presence

An Israeli airstrike on a United Nations school housing displaced Palestinians in central Gaza has resulted in the deaths of at least 35 people. Local journalists informed the BBC that the attack involved two missiles striking classrooms on the top floor of the school situated in the urban Nuseirat refugee camp. Videos from the scene depicted widespread destruction and numerous casualties.

The Israeli military claimed it conducted a “precise strike on a Hamas compound” within the school, eliminating many of the 20 to 30 fighters it believed were present. Contrarily, Gaza’s Hamas-run Government Media Office refuted this assertion, condemning the strike as a “horrific massacre.”

Philippe Lazzarini, head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (Unrwa), which operates the school, described the incident as “horrific.” He expressed shock at the allegation that armed groups were in the shelter, although this could not be verified.

Casualties were transported to the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Hospital in nearby Deir al-Balah, which has been overwhelmed since Israel initiated a new ground offensive against Hamas in central Gaza earlier in the week.

The precise circumstances of the strike remain unclear, with the BBC working to confirm details. Local journalists and residents reported that the attack occurred early Thursday morning at al-Sardi school in a southeastern section of the densely populated, decades-old camp, where Unrwa provides services. The school was crowded with hundreds of displaced individuals who had fled other conflict zones within Gaza. Throughout the almost eight-month-long war, 1.7 million people have sought refuge in schools and other UN facilities.

Udai Abu Elias, a resident at the school, recounted to BBC Arabic’s Gaza Today programme: “I was asleep when the incident occurred. Suddenly, we heard a loud explosion and shattered glass and debris from the building fell on us.” He added, “Smoke filled the air, and I couldn’t see anything. I didn’t expect to make it out alive. I heard someone calling for survivors to come out from under the rubble. I struggled to see as I stumbled over the bodies of the martyrs.”

Another resident, Jabr, described waking up to “the sight of bodies and [human] remains everywhere,” while another unnamed individual noted that the casualties included “elderly people, young individuals, and children.” Social media videos depicted the devastation of several classrooms and bodies wrapped in white shrouds and blankets. One injured woman cried out in a video, “Enough war! We have been displaced dozens of times. They killed our children while they were sleeping.”

Initial reports suggested over 20 deaths, but an official at al-Aqsa hospital later informed a BBC freelancer that 40 bodies had been received from the school. Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry confirmed this toll, listing 40 dead, including 14 children and nine women, with 74 others injured. Ismail al-Thawabta, director of the Hamas-run Government Media Office, corroborated these figures.

Unrwa’s Philippe Lazzarini stated on X, formerly Twitter, that at least 35 people were killed and many more injured, based on reports from Unrwa staff on the ground. Juliette Touma, Unrwa’s director of communications, echoed this, noting that “the figures are coming from our own Unrwa colleagues on the ground.”

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) justified the strike as targeting a Hamas compound within the Unrwa school. They released an annotated aerial photograph indicating classrooms on two upper floors as “locations of the terrorists.” The IDF claimed that members of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad involved in the October 7 attack on southern Israel, which resulted in 1,200 deaths and 251 hostages, were operating from the building. The IDF stated that steps were taken to minimize civilian casualties, including aerial surveillance and additional intelligence gathering.

Lt. Col. Peter Lerner, an IDF spokesman, asserted that 20 to 30 fighters used the school for planning and executing attacks, many of whom were killed in the strike. He added, “I’m not aware of any civilian casualties and I’d be very, very cautious of accepting anything that Hamas puts out.” Lerner also mentioned that the IDF had twice aborted the attack to reduce civilian harm and accused Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad of using UN facilities as operational bases.

Ismail al-Thawabta refuted the IDF’s allegations, stating, “The occupation uses lying to the public opinion through false fabricated stories to justify the brutal crime it conducted against dozens of displaced people.”

Lazzarini lamented that the school was hit “without prior warning” to Unrwa or the 6,000 displaced individuals sheltering there. He found the claims of armed groups being inside the shelter “shocking” but noted Unrwa could not verify these claims. He emphasized, “Attacking, targeting or using UN buildings for military purposes are a blatant disregard of International Humanitarian law. UN staff, premises and operations must be protected at all times.”

Lazzarini highlighted that over 180 Unrwa buildings had been struck since the war began, despite their coordinates being shared with conflict parties, resulting in more than 450 displaced individuals’ deaths. He demanded accountability for these actions.

The Gaza health ministry reports that at least 36,650 people have been killed in Gaza since Israel’s military campaign began, following the October 7 attack, with figures not distinguishing between civilians and combatants.

Recently, the Israeli military claimed operational control over eastern Bureij refugee camp, adjacent to Nuseirat, and eastern Deir al-Balah, with residents noting intense bombardment. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) reported that al-Aqsa hospital received at least 70 bodies, mostly women and children, in the past 24 hours.

A previous Israeli airstrike on a tented camp for displaced people near an Unrwa base in Rafah, targeting senior Hamas officials, drew international outrage when a resulting fire killed dozens of Palestinians. The IDF called the loss of life “tragic” and investigated the possibility of an explosion from Hamas-stored ammunition.

Efforts to broker a ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas were revived following this incident. US President Joe Biden recently detailed an Israeli proposal to Hamas, suggesting a six-week truce to release some hostages in exchange for Palestinians from Israeli jails, followed by a permanent ceasefire. A joint statement from the US, UK, and 16 other countries urged Israeli and Hamas leaders to finalize a deal to alleviate the hostage families’ suffering.

Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh expressed a willingness to consider a proposal based on ending the war and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains firm on not agreeing to a ceasefire before defeating Hamas and releasing hostages, striving for “total victory.”

Claudia Sheinbaum: Mexico’s First Female President

Claudia Sheinbaum’s Background and Achievements

Claudia Sheinbaum, known as “la Doctora” for her impressive academic background, is a physicist with a doctorate in energy engineering. She has served as the former mayor of Mexico City, one of the world’s most populous cities, and was part of the United Nations panel of climate scientists that received a Nobel Peace Prize. She made history by becoming the first woman and the first person of Jewish heritage to be elected president of Mexico, winning around 60% of the vote in the largest election in Mexico’s history.

Sheinbaum’s academic career includes receiving the prize of best UNAM young researcher in engineering and technological innovation in 1999. She also joined the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at the United Nations, contributing to reports on the topic “Mitigation of climate change” and co-authoring the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in 2013. She has been dedicated to university teaching, focusing on renewable energy and climate change.

Challenges Ahead for Sheinbaum

One of the challenges Sheinbaum faces is to establish her own platform gradually while initially acting as a faithful disciple of her longtime ally, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. She will need to navigate the transition carefully, offering glimpses of her own program without stoking instability in the movement’s base. Despite her close association with Obrador, there are clear differences between the two leaders, with Sheinbaum emphasizing her decision-making based on data and science.

Another significant challenge for Sheinbaum is addressing Mexico’s organized crime and security issues. The country has been plagued by high levels of violence, with a soaring homicide rate and a significant number of people missing. Additionally, Mexico remains a dangerous place for women, with high femicide rates. Sheinbaum will need to act quickly on these pressing security issues.

US-Mexico Relations

Sheinbaum’s presidency comes at a critical time for US-Mexico relations, as both countries are holding elections in 2024. Mexico is a key US ally on various issues, including trade, drug trafficking, and migration management. The relationship between President Joe Biden and Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been described as friendly and professional, and the Biden administration anticipates a productive relationship with Mexico’s next president. However, the election in Mexico has raised uncertainty about potential changes in border cooperation and migration policies.

Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidency marks a historic moment for Mexico, and she faces significant challenges in establishing her own platform while addressing pressing security issues and navigating US-Mexico relations.

Zelensky Warns China’s Support to Russia Will Prolong Ukraine War, Calls for Asia-Pacific Nations to Join Peace Summit

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking at a meeting of defense chiefs from across the Asia-Pacific, including China and the US, in Singapore, expressed concerns about China’s support to Russia and its potential impact on the duration of the war in Ukraine. Zelensky also called on countries across the Asia-Pacific to participate in an upcoming peace summit on Ukraine, scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 15-16.

Zelensky’s Remarks on China’s Support to Russia:

During a press conference in Singapore, Zelensky highlighted the potential consequences of China’s support to Russia, stating, “With China’s support to Russia the war will last longer. That is bad for the whole world, and the policy of China – who declares that it supports territorial integrity and sovereignty and declares it officially. For them it is not good.”These remarks underscore the concerns about the impact of external support on the conflict in Ukraine.

China’s Position and Allegations:

China has maintained a stance of neutrality in the conflict and has emphasized its commitment to peace. However, it has strengthened its economic and diplomatic ties with Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The US has alleged that China’s export of dual-use goods to Russia is bolstering the warring country’s defense industrial base, a claim that China has refuted. Zelensky also alluded to support from China, suggesting that certain elements of Russia’s weaponry “come from China.”

Russia’s Efforts to Disrupt the Peace Summit:

Zelensky warned that Russia, with the help of China, is attempting to pressure countries not to participate in the upcoming international peace summit. He stated, “Russia is trying to disrupt the peace summit and that is true … (Russia) is now traveling around many countries in the world threatening them with the blockade of the agricultural goods, of the food products, of chemical products … it is simply pushing the other countries of the world so that they’re not present on the summit.”Zelensky also accused Russia of using Chinese diplomats to disrupt the peace summit.

China’s Response and Position:

China has announced that it will not send a delegation to the peace summit, emphasizing the need for recognition by both Russia and Ukraine, equal participation by all parties, and fair discussion of all peace plans. Chinese Minister of National Defense Dong Jun reiterated China’s commitment to promoting peace talks and refuted allegations of providing weapons to either side in the conflict. The Chinese Foreign Ministry defended China’s trade with Russia as “above board” and emphasized the importance of its relations with Ukraine.

Urgency for International Support:

Zelensky’s appeal for international support comes at a critical time as Ukraine faces a major Russian advance into its northeast region of Kharkiv. The urgency to repel the invasion and bolster international support for Ukraine’s peace plan has become increasingly pressing.

The geopolitical dynamics surrounding the conflict in Ukraine, including China’s support to Russia and efforts to disrupt the peace summit, underscore the complexities and challenges involved in resolving the crisis. As Zelensky seeks to rally international support for Ukraine’s peace plan, the role of key global players, including China and the US, will continue to be closely scrutinized in the context of the ongoing conflict.

China Joins India In The Climate Challenge – Target Net-Zero University Campus

India and China may be politically at odds, and the news headlines may be dominated by the “border tension” and “military standoff”, but on the environmental front, there is welcome convergence.

To accelerate the global movement of Net-Zero (carbon-neutral) university campuses, Li Qinglong, the first astronaut of China and the skill-building instructor of China’s space heroes, has announced his support for the ambitious Network of Universities established by Green TERRE Foundation of India, called Smart Campus Cloud Network (SCCN). He encouraged Operation Earth, China’s not-for-profit Organisation to be the hub of Net-Zero universities in China.

The alliance between two civil society organizations in India and China, Green TERRE Foundation of India  and Operation Earth of China will promote through network practical activities in the university campuses to make the campus Net-Zero along with research and development projects leading to Net-Zero

“We are all fighting a global war against our common enemy, which is the climate crisis,” said Dr Rajendra Shende, founder director, of Green TERRE Foundation and Chairman of the International Advisory Council of Operation Earth China while announcing the alliance.

“From space, the Earth is so beautiful. It is our only but fragile home. We must protect her beauty and the ecosystem we rely on for survival. Therefore, I am thrilled to support the joint initiative of India’s Green TERRE Foundation’s SCCN program and China’s Operation Earth, Climate Action. Young college students are the main force in developing and utilizing cutting-edge aerospace technologies, including space technologies like space seed breeding, to address climate change and food security issues. University students from China and India should work together to protect the beautiful Earth!’, said Li Qinglong.

China has pledged to the United Nations that it would be carbon neutral by 2060. India has pledged to the United Nations that it would become carbon neutral by 2070.

“Both India and China countries are separated by mighty Himalaya. But the Himalaya is a symbol of unity. We are united by our common desire to address climate challenge by forming university to university alliance on Net Zero Campus,” said Chen Liangzhong, founder of Operation Earth China and Advisor to Green TERRE Foundation.

The 21st Century will be the Asian century with  India and China in front to lead the green growth for the benefit of the planet and people. Operation Earth and Green TERRE Foundation, both not-for-profit organizations, therefore believe that tomorrow’s youth are climate warriors. They can achieve the Net Zero campus much earlier and at the same time build their green skills to inspire and assist others in the sectors like clean energy, Shende said.

Under the alliance, the network of universities would digitally exchange information on their progress of efforts to make campus Net-Zero. They would undertake pilot projects on emerging technologies related to climate-resilient and climate-friendly practices. Smart Campus Cloud Network (SCCN) is a global network of universities that encourage the implementation of SDGs on the campus and thereby build the green skills in them to make them SDG-ready.

SDG7 and SDG 13 are specific to climate change and hence Net-Zero Campus are their priorities. Nearly 500 universities and higher educational institutes from 12 countries, including China, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Nepal, UAE, Egypt, Portugal and Spain are the members of the Network that have begun the implementation of SDGs and Net-Zero in their campuses.

Read more at: https://www.southasiamonitor.org/indo-pacific-china-watch/china-joins-india-climate-challenge-target-net-zero-university-campus

ICC Seeks Arrest Warrants for Hamas Leader and Israeli PM Netanyahu Over War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity

The International Criminal Court (ICC) is pursuing arrest warrants for Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in relation to the October 7 attacks on Israel and the subsequent conflict in Gaza. This announcement was made by ICC prosecutor Karim Khan during an exclusive interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour.

Khan revealed that the ICC’s prosecution team is also seeking warrants for Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as two other prominent Hamas leaders — Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri, known as Mohammed Deif, the leader of the Al Qassem Brigades, and Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ political leader. The targeting of Israeli officials marks a significant moment, as it is the first time the ICC has sought to arrest the top leader of a US ally. This decision places Netanyahu alongside figures like Russian President Vladimir Putin and the late Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, both of whom faced ICC arrest warrants for alleged war crimes.

Issuing arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders in the same action could attract criticism, potentially equating a terror organization with an elected government. A panel of ICC judges will now evaluate Khan’s application for the warrants.

Khan outlined the charges against Sinwar, Haniyeh, and al-Masri, which include “extermination, murder, taking of hostages, rape, and sexual assault in detention.” He highlighted the horrific events of October 7, stating, “The world was shocked… when people were ripped from their bedrooms, from their homes, from the different kibbutzim in Israel… people have suffered enormously.” On that day, Hamas militants killed approximately 1,200 people across southern Israel and took around 250 hostages into Gaza. Many of these hostages remain captive, with Khan noting that crimes continue to be committed against “so many innocent Israelis… that are held hostage by Hamas and families that are waiting for their return.”

Khan emphasized that his team has substantial evidence to support the arrest warrants, including authenticated video footage, photographs, and testimonies from eyewitnesses and survivors. While acknowledging Israel’s right to rescue hostages, Khan stressed, “you must do so by complying with the law.”

In response, Hamas condemned the ICC’s move, stating it “strongly condemns the attempts of the ICC Prosecutor to equate victims with aggressors by issuing arrest warrants against a number of Palestinian resistance leaders without legal basis.” Hamas also urged the ICC to issue warrants against “all war criminals among the occupation leaders, officers, and soldiers who participated in crimes against the Palestinian people.”

The charges against Netanyahu and Gallant are similarly severe, including “causing extermination, causing starvation as a method of war, including the denial of humanitarian relief supplies, deliberately targeting civilians in conflict.” Khan remarked, “The fact that Hamas fighters need water doesn’t justify denying water from all the civilian population of Gaza.”

The conflict has resulted in devastating casualties in Gaza, with over 35,500 Palestinians killed and more than 79,000 wounded since October 7, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health, though CNN could not independently verify these figures. Netanyahu denounced the ICC’s decision as “a political outrage,” vowing, “They will not deter us and we will continue in the war until the hostages are released and Hamas is destroyed.”

Other Israeli officials echoed Netanyahu’s condemnation. Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s war cabinet, criticized Khan’s decision, asserting that Israel fights “with one of the strictest moral codes in history, while complying with international law and boasting a robust independent judiciary.” He described the comparison between Israel’s leaders and Hamas as “a deep distortion of justice and blatant moral bankruptcy,” labeling the prosecutors’ decision as “a crime of historic proportion.”

Opposition leader Yair Lapid also rebuked the application for arrest warrants, calling it “a complete moral failure.” He stated, “We cannot accept the outrageous comparison between Netanyahu and Sinwar… We will not remain silent.” Israel’s President Isaac Herzog called the decision “beyond outrageous.”

Netanyahu had previously declared that any ICC arrest warrants against senior Israeli officials would be “an outrage of historic proportions,” insisting that Israel’s independent legal system rigorously investigates all legal violations. In response to these comments, Khan stated, “Nobody is above the law,” urging Israel to challenge the ICC’s jurisdiction in court if it disagreed.

Although Israel and the United States are not ICC members, the court claims jurisdiction over Gaza, East Jerusalem, and the West Bank since Palestinian leaders accepted the court’s founding principles in 2015. This latest announcement is separate from an ongoing case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), where South Africa has accused Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians.

This is not the first ICC action involving Israel; in March 2021, Khan’s office launched an investigation into possible crimes committed in Gaza and the West Bank since June 2014. The ICC, located in The Hague and established by the Rome Statute, operates independently with 124 member countries. Should the court grant the arrest warrants, any member country would be obliged to arrest and extradite the individuals to The Hague. This could significantly limit Netanyahu and Gallant’s international travel, including to countries closely allied with Israel.

Sinwar, Haniyeh, and al-Masri, designated as global terrorists by the US, face travel bans, asset freezes, and sanctions. Hamas as an organization is similarly designated by several countries, including the US, the UK, Japan, Canada, and the European Union, which imposes sanctions on its leaders.

Clash of Civilizations: Which will be the best-placed to lead the world?

The phrase “The Clash of Civilizations”      was first used by Albert Camus in 1946, by Times of India editor Girilal Jain in his analysis of the Ayodhya dispute in 1988, and by many others subsequently. It was much later that the phrase came to be widely discussed.

The “Clash of Civilizations” is a thesis by the American political scientist Samuel P Huntington in which he argues people’s cultural and religious identities will be the primary source of conflict in the post–Cold War world and followed up in a lecture in 1992 at the American Enterprise Institute,  that future wars would be fought not between countries, but between cultures. It was later developed in a 1993 article titled “The Clash of Civilizations?”, in response to his former student Francis Fukuyama’s 1992 book “The End of History and the Last Man”. But it was only years later when the world took a fancy to the phrase when Huntington expanded his thesis in a 1996 book “The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order”. At the end of his 1993 Foreign Affairs article, “The Clash of Civilizations?”, Huntington writes, “This is not to advocate the desirability of conflicts between civilizations. It is to set forth a descriptive hypothesis as to what the future may be like.”

Many of the individual arguments about the specifics of the “clash of civilizations” didn’t get at the larger point, which is really about how much culture matters as opposed to geopolitics or economics or ideology. Nor do civilizations appear to have an important indirect influence on interstate conflict through the realist or liberal variables. Except to loosely predict alliance patterns it makes little contribution to explaining political institutions or commercial interactions. Huntington challenged us to consider the role that civilizations might play in international relations, but there is little evidence that they define the fault lines along which international conflicts are occurring.

1.     The USA-Iran is not a clash of civilizations more than the USA not wanting Iran to have nukes and have a say in the geopolitics of Central Asia, a confluence of warm waters, Europe and Asia, so important for economic activities.

2.     The Russian–Ukraine conflict is obviously for territory and not a clash of civilizations.

3.     The Israel- Arab (Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran or whoever) is more as Palestinians against Israel (occupier) as also Israel is perceived as a hindrance to Iran’s hegemony in the area (with the nukes when it gets)

4.     Neither are conflicts in Sudan, Libya, Syria, Iraq etc. clash of civilizations.

5.     The Indo-China conflicts, Indo-Pak wars, the Korean War, China’s predatory eye on Taiwan, South China Sea are all not a clash of civilizations.

Real clash of civilizations

The differences among civilizations are too basic in that civilizations are differentiated from each other by history, language, culture, tradition, and, most importantly, religion. These fundamental differences are the product of centuries and the foundations of different civilizations, meaning they will not be gone soon. The world is becoming a smaller place.   Due to economic modernization and social change, people are separated from long-standing local identities. Interactions between civilizations are increasing with commitments that transcend national boundaries and unite civilizations.  Economic regionalism is increasing. Successful economic regionalism will reinforce civilization-consciousness. Yet, economic regionalism may succeed only when it is rooted in a common civilization.

By this logic, the four prominent civilizations to be reckoned with today are the West (led by the USA), India, China and Islam.

Western: The Western civilization has been largely shaped by ancient Greece and Rome which spread to Europe and after evolving took roots in the colonies of America which became the center of gravity of the West. West also includes Latin America, Russia and Australia though Australia is changing ethnically. The USA is a declining power which too will become a nonwhite majority state in a few decades. The non-white USA will continue to follow a foreign policy of ruthless self-interest in Asia to secure its geopolitical goals. Western leaders wedded to democracy at home and cozying up to pliant dictators abroad to find a moral escape route in the Middle East on the fraudulent pretext of preserving the region’s historical stability are treading on thin ice. Though the influence and economy of the USA are on the decline, the West will continue to influence.

India: India is deeply rooted in history and is a growing hard and soft power. India has a widely dispersed diaspora with the center of gravity geographically well set in India, with a strong demographics of the working population; soon to be third largest economy; a confluence of cultures as nowhere else, diversity and democracy. Amidst a challenging global scenario, India has emerged as a significant economic and geopolitical power. Its actions in the coming year could lay the groundwork for the country to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next five years and a developed nation by 2047, setting an example of inclusive, sustainable economic growth, digital development and climate action. This is the time for India to strike – diplomatically – Africa Latin America, Russia etc

China: China deeply rooted in history, will continue to rise, influencing from the Pacific to Africa. It is the second largest economy with the center of gravity being China. China’s economy is going through a rough time, given its resilience it has the potential to recover. China’s recovery, though,  is built on quite shaky foundations. There is a weakness in domestic real estate investment. There is a fear exports will not increase due to uncertain global demand and ongoing trade frictions with the US. Domestically, the Chinese government has started to use monetary policy to generate growth.  Given the headwinds ranging from lower productivity to an aging population, China’s financial system simply won’t be able to generate the same levels of credit growth that it has in previous years. Therefore, Beijing will have far less control over the direction of its economy than it has in the past. The IMF has said it expected China’s growth rate to reach 5.4 per cent in 2023, and gradually decline to 3.5 per cent in 2028. China is also sitting on a tinderbox of suppressed people’s freedom.

Islam: Unlike the other civilizations discussed here, Islam does not have a center of gravity and though united by religion, the Islamic Umma is spread over many polities, each with its own agenda.  There are deep-rooted sectarian differences within. The economy of Islamic states, with the exception of Indonesia, is largely based on oil. Most states are ruled by undemocratic monarchs or sheikhs. Islam has to compete for salience and space in the multifarious economic world.  More importantly, Islam will have to modernize and adapt and change from within to compete. It is a big ask in the current circumstances.

India and China represent the future, America (West) the present, and Europe the past; Islam has a long way to go. With the headwinds in the Chinese economy, the best-placed civilization to advance to become a developed nation to lead the world is India. With Japan competing in the economic area, the future will be with a non-white West, India, China, and Japan.

(The author is an Indian Army veteran and a contemporary affairs commentator. The views are personal. He can be reached at  kl.viswanathan@gmail.com)

Read more at: https://www.southasiamonitor.org/spotlight/clash-civilizations-which-will-be-best-placed-lead-world

UN Resolution Advances Palestinian Membership Amidst Global Debate

The United Nations passed a resolution in support of Palestinian membership, marking a significant step in granting new privileges to the Palestinian Authority as a non-member observer state. With a decisive majority of 143 votes in favor, the resolution gained traction despite objections from nine nations including Czechia, Hungary, Argentina, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Israel, and the United States.

Proposed by the United Arab Emirates, the resolution urges the UN Security Council to reconsider Palestinian membership favorably, affirming that “The State of Palestine is qualified for membership in the United Nations.” Emotions ran high as over 100 national representatives expressed their views on the resolution, with many voicing support for Palestinian statehood regardless of their voting stance.

Palestinian ambassador Riyad Mansour passionately addressed the assembly before the vote, highlighting the dire situation in Gaza and expressing gratitude to global demonstrators. Meanwhile, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz criticized the resolution, denouncing it as unjust and accusing the UN of bias.

Although a General Assembly vote cannot grant UN membership, the approved resolution grants the Palestinian Authority new rights and privileges. While unable to vote, they can now sit among member states, submit proposals, co-sponsor initiatives, make statements, and request items for the UN’s agenda. Mansour announced plans to seek full membership from the Security Council, a move anticipated to face US opposition.

Following the vote, US Deputy Ambassador Robert Wood criticized the resolution, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive peace solution in the Middle East. He stressed the importance of Gaza not being a haven for terrorism and advocated for direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

Israel’s Ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, condemned resolution supporters, accusing them of promoting terrorism and undermining the UN charter. He symbolically shredded a piece of the charter during his impassioned speech. UN spokesman Farhan Haq later defended the charter’s integrity, asserting the organization’s commitment to upholding it.

The Palestinian Authority’s journey toward UN recognition has seen significant developments since its failed bid for independent membership in 2011. In 2012, its status evolved from a “non-member observer entity” to a “non-member observer state,” akin to the Vatican’s status at the UN.

The U.S. Vetoes Resolution to Upgrade Palestine’s U.N. Membership

The U.S. blocked on Thursday a draft resolution that would have allowed the United Nations General Assembly to vote on allowing a Palestinian state to become a full member state of the U.N. The move has triggered backlash from other states and pro-Palestinian groups, as global divisions continue to sharpen over Israel’s war on Gaza.

The U.S. was the only nation in the 15-member U.N. Security Council to vote against the resolution. Twelve—including Russia, China, France, and Japan—voted in favor, while two—the U.K. and Switzerland—abstained.

On April 2, the Palestinian Authority again submitted a request to reconsider its 2011 request for full U.N. membership. The U.S. has been urging the Palestinian Authority not to press ahead for a U.N. vote—pressure that was ignored by Abbas.

The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) said in a statement that “the Biden administration should be ashamed and embarrassed” of its “unjust veto.” The Muslim advocacy group also criticized what it says are limits of the U.N. Security Council in addressing conflict.

“For decades, the UN Security Council has failed to prevent unjust wars and genocide around the world,” the statement said. “The world should no longer accept a flawed system in which five nations can exercise veto power over the affairs of more than eight billion people, including nearly two billion Muslims who are not represented among the five permanent members.”

The U.N. Security Council was established in 1945 to maintain international peace and security, as well as to recommend new U.N. members to the General Assembly. It consists of 10 rotating members elected on two-year terms and five permanent members (China, France, Russia, the U.K., and the U.S.). A typical resolution in the Security Council requires affirmative votes from nine members to pass, though any of the five permanent members reserve veto power.

Israeli Ambassador Gilad Erdan expressed disappointment at the number of countries that have supported the Palestinian request. “Regardless of the Palestinians’ failure to meet the necessary criteria for UN membership, most of you sadly decided to reward Palestinian terror with a Palestinian State,” he said. “It’s very sad because your vote will only embolden Palestinian rejectionism even more and make peace almost impossible.”

Riyad Mansour, a Palestinian-American diplomat and the Permanent Observer of Palestine to the U.N., thanked those who voted in favor of the request and reiterated his people’s resolve. “The fact that this resolution did not pass will not break our will, and it will not defeat our determination,” he said. “We will not stop in our effort. The State of Palestine is inevitable. It is real. Perhaps they see it as far away, but we see it as near, and we are the faithful.”

The U.S. has found itself increasingly isolated by the international community because of its support of Israel. But as the human costs of the conflict in Gaza mount, President Joe Biden has also gradually shifted his tone towards his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu, calling Netanyahu’s approach to the war a “mistake.” The U.S. vetoed calls at the U.N. for a humanitarian ceasefire for months, but one was eventually passed in March, after the U.S. abstained from voting. Still, the U.S. has maintained its support for Israel, helping it recently shoot down missiles from Iran and vowing “ironclad commitment to the security of Israel.”

7 Persons of Indian Origin on TIME Magazine’s 100 Most Influential People List

Bollywood star Alia Bhatt, World Bank President Ajay Banga, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, and British actor with Indian roots, Dev Patel have made it to Time magazine’s ‘100 Most Influential People’ list for 2024.

Another prominent Indian who features in the list is wrestler Sakshi Malik, India’s only female Olympic medallist who led the protest against the alleged sexual harassment of female grapplers by former Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) chief Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh.

“Proud to be included in the 2024 #TIME100 list,” Sakshi wrote on X.

Tom Harper, the director of the streaming film ‘Heart of Stone’, Alia’s first Hollywood project, heaped praises on the actress, calling her a “truly international star”.

“Despite her fame, Alia is self-effacing and funny on sets. There is a grace to the way she goes about her work: focused, open to ideas, and willing to take creative risks. One of my favourite moments in the film came from an improvisation at the end of a take where she took the emotional thread and ran with it.

“Alia’s superpower is her ability to mix movie-star magnetism with authenticity and sensitivity. As an actor, she is luminous, and as a person, she brings the grounded assurance and creativity that make a truly international star.” Alia is the only Bollywood actor to feature in the Time magazine list.

The other names with an India connect featured in the list include astronomer Priyamvada Natarajan, senior US Department of Energy official Jigar Shah, and chef and rights activist Asma Khan.

The also features singer-songwriter Dua Lipa, Oscar-awardee American actress Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and Oscar-nominated actors Jeffrey Wright and Colman Domingo.

Also featured in the list are film personalities Taraji P Henson, Elliot Page, Michael J. Fox, Sofia Coppola, and Hayao Miyazaki.

British actor Dev Patel, whose parents are Indian, also finds himself on the list.  Patel, who rose to fame in “Slumdog Millionaire,” recently made his directorial debut with “Monkey Man.”  Oscar-winning actor Daniel Kaluuya praised Patel in his TIME profile, calling him “limitless” and “fearless.”

Ajay Banga, the current President of the World Bank, is commended for his transformative leadership in tackling global poverty and climate change.  U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen lauded Banga’s “skill and drive” in transforming the World Bank.

Jigar Shah, Director of the US Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office, is recognized for his role in spearheading global economic development initiatives.  Richard Branson noted that Shah leads “one of the largest economic-development programs the world has ever seen.”

Six Months into Israel-Gaza Conflict: World Leaders Call for Ceasefire and Humanitarian Aid Amidst Rising Tensions

On October 7th, a tragic event unfolded as Hamas militants breached Israel’s borders from Gaza, resulting in approximately 1,200 casualties, mostly civilians, and the capture of over 250 individuals, initiating a harrowing conflict. In the subsequent six months, Israel retaliated by launching incursions and airstrikes on Gaza, reportedly claiming the lives of around 33,000 Palestinians, predominantly women and children, as documented by the United Nations. Moreover, Israel’s military actions and control over humanitarian aid entering Gaza have led to a dire situation, with an estimated one million people teetering on the edge of famine.

This crisis has elicited widespread condemnation and legal challenges, notably a case brought forth by South Africa at the United Nations’ highest court. In January, the court issued an interim order suggesting the plausibility of Israel engaging in acts of genocide, a claim vehemently denied by Israel. Consequently, pressure from Israel’s allies has intensified, particularly following an incident on April 2nd when Israeli military strikes resulted in the deaths of seven aid workers, including six foreign nationals affiliated with the NGO World Central Kitchen, deemed by the military as a “grave mistake.”

Following these tragic events, President Joe Biden issued a stern ultimatum to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, urging immediate measures to safeguard civilians and facilitate the delivery of food aid into Gaza. Failure to comply would prompt a reassessment of the United States’ military support, which amounts to billions of dollars annually. In response, Israel initiated the opening of new aid channels into Gaza.

Internally, Netanyahu faces significant domestic unrest, with mass protests demanding a resolution to the hostage situation involving the remaining 133 captives. Some demonstrators have joined anti-government rallies, advocating for Netanyahu’s resignation. Addressing the six-month milestone of the conflict, Netanyahu emphasized the perceived achievements of the war, asserting determination to secure a comprehensive victory, secure the release of all hostages, eradicate Hamas across Gaza, and ensure Israel’s long-term security. Netanyahu reiterated to the international community that no ceasefire would be entertained without the return of the hostages.

Reportedly, negotiations between Israel and Hamas are ongoing through intermediaries, with hopes of reaching a resolution.

Reflecting on the six-month mark of the conflict, various world leaders have voiced their perspectives:

U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak described October 7th as a “most appalling attack” in Israel’s history, emphasizing the need for an end to the conflict, the release of hostages, and immediate humanitarian intervention in Gaza.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock condemned Hamas’ actions and reiterated the call for the release of hostages and cessation of violence.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Jordan stressed the imperative of halting Israel’s military operations in Gaza and ensuring compliance with international humanitarian law, including the protection of civilians and the facilitation of humanitarian aid.

U.K. Foreign Minister David Cameron demanded the release of hostages by Hamas, advocated for Israel’s right to self-defense within the bounds of international law, and urged for increased humanitarian aid and a temporary ceasefire.

U.K. Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden acknowledged Israel’s mistakes while upholding high standards for accountability, amidst public and legislative pressure to suspend arms sales to Israel.

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres mourned the loss of life on both sides and condemned Hamas’ actions, calling for the unconditional release of hostages and a humanitarian ceasefire.

Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs and Minister for Defense Micheál Martin honored the victims of the conflict while calling for an immediate ceasefire, the release of hostages, and enhanced humanitarian aid efforts.

The global response underscores the urgency of ending the violence, addressing humanitarian concerns, and pursuing a sustainable resolution to the protracted conflict, prioritizing the well-being and security of both Israelis and Palestinians.

UN Urges India That ‘Everyone’s Rights Protected’ In India’s Elections

The arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in the Delhi excise policy case is garnering more and more international reactions. This time, the United Nations (UN) has commented on Kejriwal’s arrest.

The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres hopes that in India’s elections, “everyone’s rights are protected”, his spokesperson Stephane Dujarric has said. “What we very much hope that in India, as in any country that is having elections, that everyone’s rights are protected, including political and civil rights, and everyone is able to vote in an atmosphere that is free and fair”, he said on Thursday in response to a question from a Bangladeshi journalist at his daily briefing.

In making a general statement, Dujarric did not directly react to the journalist’s assertion that India was at a “crisis point” mentioning the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and what he said were the freezing of Congress Party funds.

Stephane Dujarric, a spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was responding to a question on the “political unrest” in India ahead of the upcoming general elections in the wake of the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and the freezing of the opposition Congress Party’s bank accounts.

“What we very much hope that in India, as in any country that is having elections, that everyone’s rights are protected, including political and civil rights, and everyone can vote in an atmosphere that is free and fair,” Dujarric said at a press conference here.

The UN spokesperson’s reaction comes days after the United States (US) and Germany reacted to the Delhi chief minister’s arrest. On Monday (March 25), a US State Department spokesperson said that it was closely following reports on Kejriwal’s arrest, and urged a fair, transparent, and legal process for him.

Germany, meanwhile, said that like anyone facing accusations, Kejriwal was “entitled to a fair and impartial trial, this includes he can make use of all available legal avenues without restrictions.”

IMF Urges Non-alignment in Second Cold War

(IPS) – The IMF no. 2 recommends non-alignment as the best option for developing countries in the second Cold War as geopolitics threatens already dismal prospects for the world economy and wellbeing.

IMF warning
Ominously, International Monetary Fund (IMF) First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath warns, “With the weakest world growth prospects in decades – and…the pandemic and war slowing income convergence between rich and poor nations – we can little afford another Cold War”.

While recognizing globalization is over, she appeals to governments to “preserve economic cooperation amid geoeconomic fragmentation” due to the second Cold War.

U S Secretary of State Mike Pompeo attends the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Bangkok
Picture: Reuters

Growing US-China tensions, the pandemic, and war have changed international relations. The US calls for ‘friend-shoring’ while its European allies claim they want to ‘de-risk’. While still pleading for ‘globalization’, China realistically stresses ‘self-reliance’.

Multilateral rules were rarely designed to address such international conflicts as ostensible ‘national security’ concerns rewrite big powers’ economic policies. Hence, geoeconomic conflicts have few rules and no referee!

Historical perspective
After the Second World War, the US and USSR soon led rival blocs in a new bipolar world. After Bandung (1955) and Belgrade (1961), non-aligned countries have rejected both camps. This era lasted four decades.

World trade-to-GDP rose with post-war recovery and, later, trade liberalisation. With the first Cold War, geopolitical considerations shaped trade and investment flows as economic relations between the blocs shrank.

According to her, such flows increased after the Cold War, “reaching almost a quarter of world trade” during the “hyper-globalization” of the 1990s and 2000s.

However, globalization has stagnated since 2008. Later, about “3,000 trade restricting measures were imposed” in 2022 – nearly thrice those imposed in 2019!

Cold War economics
Gopinath sees “ideological and economic rivalry between two superpowers” as driving both Cold Wars. Now, China – not the Soviet Union – is the US rival, but things are different in other respects too.

In 1950, the two blocs accounted for 85% of world output. Now, the global North, China and Russia have 70% of world output but only a third of its population.

Economic interdependence grew among countries as they became “much more integrated”. International trade-to-output is now 60% compared to 24% during the Cold War. This inevitably raises the costs of what she terms economic ‘fragmentation’ due to geopolitics.

With the Ukraine war, trade between blocs fell from 3% pre-war to -1.9%! Even trade growth within blocs fell to 1.7% – from 2.2% pre-war. Similarly, FDI proposals “between blocs declined more than those within blocs…while FDI to non-aligned countries sharply increased.”

China is no longer the US’s largest trading partner, as “its share of US imports has fallen” from 22% in 2018 to 13% in early 2023. Trade restrictions since 2018 have cut “Chinese imports of tariffed products” as US FDI in China fell sharply.

However, indirect links are replacing direct ties between the US and China. “Countries that have gained the most in US import shares…have also gained more in China’s export shares” and FDI abroad.

A BIS study found “supply chains have lengthened in the last two years”, especially between “Chinese suppliers and US customers”. Hopefully, Gopinath suggests, “despite efforts by the two biggest economies to cut ties, it is not yet clear how effective they will be”.

For Gopinath, trade restrictions “diminish the efficiency gains from specialisation, limit economies of scale due to smaller markets, and reduce competitive pressures.”

She reports IMF research suggesting “the economic costs of fragmentation… could be significant and weigh disproportionately on developing countries”, with losses around 2.5% of world output.

Losses could be as high as 7% of GDP depending on the economy’s resilience: “Losses are especially large for lower income and emerging market economies.”

Much will depend on how things unfold. She warns, “Fragmentation would also inhibit our efforts to address other global challenges that demand international cooperation.”

Policy options
Policymakers face difficult trade-offs between minimizing the costs of fragmentation and vulnerabilities, and maximizing security and resilience.

Gopinath recognizes her ‘first best solution’ – to avoid geoeconomic hostilities – is remote at best, given current geopolitical hostilities and likely future trends. Instead, she urges avoiding “the worst-case scenario” and protecting “economic cooperation” despite polarization.

She wants adversaries to “target only a narrow set of products and technologies that warrant intervention on economic security grounds”. Otherwise, she advocates a “non-discriminatory plurilateral approach” to “deepen integration, diversify, and mitigate resilience risks”.

Despite the odds, Gopinath appeals for a “multilateral approach…for areas of common interest” to “safeguard the global goals of averting climate change devastation, food insecurity and pandemic-related humanitarian disasters”.

Finally, she wants to restrict “unilateral policy actions – such as industrial policies”. They should only address “market failures while preserving market forces”, which she insists always “allocate resources most efficiently”.

Not recognising the double standards involved, she wants policymakers “to carefully evaluate industrial policies in terms of their effectiveness” But, she is less cautious and uncritical in insisting on neoliberal conventional wisdom despite its dubious track record.

Unsurprisingly, two IMF staffers felt compelled to write in 2019 of ‘The Return of the Policy That Shall Not Be Named’. Despite much earlier extensive European and Japanese use and US President Biden’s recent embrace of industrial policy, the Fund seems caught in an ideological trap and time warp of its own making.

While making excessive claims about gains from globalisation, Gopinath acknowledges “economic integration has not benefited everyone”.

Thankfully, she urges developing countries to remain non-aligned and “deploy their economic and diplomatic heft to keep the world integrated” as the new Cold War sets the world further back.

Pragmatically, Gopinath observes, “If some economies remain non-aligned and continue engaging with all partners, they could benefit from the diversion of trade and investment.”

By 2022, “more than half of global trade involved a non-aligned country…They can benefit directly from trade and investment diversion”, reducing the Cold War’s high costs. (IPS UN Bureau)

China’s ‘New Era’ Changes the Game for Global Actors

The Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis has published China’s ‘New Era’ Changes the Game for Global Actors. Authored by Senior Fellow on Chinese Economy Diana Choyleva, the paper is the second in a two part series exploring how Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision for a “new era,” as decreed at the 19th Party Congress in 2017, has changed incentives for key groups in China and beyond.

According to the report, Deng Xiaoping believed in a low-profile “hide and bide” strategy for China, but Xi has coined a new doctrine for Chinese foreign policy: “dare to fight.”

“China’s economy is now the largest in the world by some measures, which has emboldened Beijing to become more assertive in challenging U.S. ‘hegemony’ in Asia and around the world,” writes Choyleva. “China has called into question the validity of the U.S.-led global order, undermining U.S. credibility where it can and offering alternatives to the international order on its own terms.”

As China has sought to reshape the international order, they have stepped up their diplomatic outreach to the Global South: “China strives to be an ‘ideologically-neutral trading partner,’ in contrast with the United States, which has historically been vocal and interventionist in support of human rights and freedom of speech.”

The most prominent shift has been China’s embrace of Russia. “The more China challenges the West and rallies the Global South with its confrontational stance and economic support, the more authoritarian regimes will be emboldened to pursue their idiosyncratic policy goals,” writes Choyleva.

The report notes that the West has rebuilt strategic alliances, such as the Quad, in response to China’s “bumptious” behavior. Furthermore, “the rapid evolution of China’s military and Xi’s aggressive assertion of its sovereignty claims over Taiwan and the South China Sea, where it has ramped up gray-zone activity over the past few years, have prompted the U.S. military to redouble its efforts to secure a free and open Indo-Pacific and invest heavily in changing its way of war, adopting a more dispersed and resilient form of power projection.”

As both China and the United States pour money and resources into achieving independent technological dominance, multinational companies have struggled to understand how economic decoupling might work in practice. “As China and the United States rewrite the rules of their economic and financial engagement and global conflicts mushroom, companies with operations that straddle the two worlds will find it hard to avoid picking a side,” writes Choyleva.

Both countries recognize that decoupling in today’s highly interconnected world will be costly, but are working hard to reduce their interdependence and turn the global system in their favor. “The global economy is becoming less efficient and less productive as national security is prized over economic gains,” Choyleva concludes.

Read the full report here. Members of the media interested in connecting with Choyleva should email pr@asiasociety.org.

China Condemns US Interference in India Border Dispute

China has criticized the United States for interfering in its border disagreement with India, following Washington’s assertion that it recognizes the contested Arunachal Pradesh as a part of Indian territory.

“China strongly deplores and firmly opposes this,” remarked Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, during a press conference in Beijing on Thursday. “The China-India boundary question is a matter between the two countries and has nothing to do with the US side.”

This reaction comes in response to the U.S. dismissing China’s “unilateral attempts” to push forward its territorial claims and intervening in a dispute between New Delhi and Beijing after Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated a tunnel in Arunachal Pradesh.

This development adds to the escalating tensions between neighboring India and China, which have a shared border spanning 3,500 kilometers. China, known as Zangnan, asserts that Arunachal Pradesh is part of southern Tibet, a claim India vehemently rejects, maintaining that Arunachal Pradesh has always been an integral part of its territory.

The U.S. State Department intervened on Wednesday, stating, “The United States recognizes Arunachal Pradesh as Indian territory and we strongly oppose any unilateral attempts to advance territorial claims by incursions or encroachments, military or civilian, across the Line of Actual Control,” according to spokesperson Vedant Patel.

The Line of Actual Control (LAC) demarcates India-controlled territory from that controlled by China. China reiterated its claims over Arunachal Pradesh on Thursday, asserting, “Zangnan has always been China’s territory, a basic fact that is undeniable.”

“It is known to all that the US has consistently spared no efforts to provoke and take advantage of other countries’ conflicts to serve its selfish geopolitical interests,” Lin added.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, highlighted the U.S.’s consistent efforts to align itself with India in its competition with China, indicating that U.S. support for India in this border dispute reflects this alignment.

Kugelman noted that while the U.S. typically refrains from commenting on certain Indian border disputes, such as the one with Pakistan over Kashmir, in this case, it is signaling its solidarity with New Delhi, akin to its efforts, including intelligence-sharing, to assist India in deterring Chinese aggressions on its northern border.

Earlier this month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the “Sela Tunnel,” the world’s longest bi-lane tunnel situated at an altitude above 13,000 feet in Arunachal Pradesh, eliciting strong reactions from Chinese officials.

Border tensions between India and China have intensified in recent years, with a major escalation in 2020 resulting in a clash that claimed the lives of 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese troops. Last year, China renamed 11 places in Arunachal Pradesh, a move vehemently opposed by India.

Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, deputy director-general of the Information Office of China’s Ministry of National Defense, stated days after the road tunnel inauguration that “China never recognizes and firmly opposes India’s illegal establishment of the so-called ‘Arunachal Pradesh.'”

China’s defense ministry reiterated its claim over the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh last week. In response, India’s foreign ministry reiterated that Arunachal Pradesh “was, is, and will always be an integral and inalienable part of India.”

Regarding the U.S. siding with India, Harsh V. Pant, vice president for studies and foreign policy at Observer Research Foundation, noted the significant progress in India-U.S. relations. He remarked, “It shows how far India-U.S. relations have come. Even when it comes to the matter, which has been very sensitive, such as the India-China border dispute, the U.S. today is openly standing with India.

A Map of Global Happiness By Country in 2024

Happiness, like love, is perhaps one of the least understood and most sought-after emotions and experiences in human life.

And while many inspiring teachings exist about attaining individual happiness, it’s worthwhile to consider how happy entire countries are on a collective scale.

We visualize the findings from the World Happiness Report 2024, an enduring attempt to measure, quantify, and compare happiness levels around the world, sourcing data from Gallup.

The Gallup World Poll surveys approximately 1,000 respondents in nearly every country on a variety of issues, one of which is to evaluate their current life on a scale from 0–10.

The World Happiness Report then averages the score from life evaluations per country over a three-year period (2021–2023 for this year’s edition) and ranks from highest to lowest. For a full breakdown of how this works, please see the end of this article.

Ranked: The Most & Least Happy Countries in 2024

The top 10 happiest countries—led by Finland, Denmark, and Iceland—have remained largely unchanged since 2023’s findings.

Labour Party Launches Labour Indians To Strengthen Ties With UK’s Indian Diaspora

The UK’s Opposition Labour Party has introduced a new diaspora organization, Labour Indians, to enhance its outreach to British Indians and fortify connections with India in anticipation of forthcoming general elections in both countries.

The inauguration took place at the Houses of Parliament complex, London. The newly formed group seeks to bolster engagement with the 1.8-million-strong Indian diaspora residing in the UK.

The launch was spearheaded by David Lammy, the party’s shadow foreign secretary. Reflecting on his recent visit to India, Lammy shared on X, “My recent visit to India reminded me of the wealth of culture and opportunity across the country – and the huge potential of our relationship moving forward.”

Labour Indians, chaired by Krish Raval and supported by British-Indian vice-chairs Councillor Shama Tatler and Kanishka Narayan, Labour’s prospective parliamentary candidate from Wales, aims to bridge the gap between the party and the British-Indian communities.

Nikita Ved, co-founder of the British Indian think tank 1928 Institute and associated with Labour Indians, emphasized the organization’s adaptability and focus on addressing the evolving needs of progressive British-Indians.

This initiative follows the recent appointment of a dedicated India Engagement Organiser by the Labour Party, specifically tasked with engaging the 1.8-million-strong Indian diaspora in preparation for the general elections later this year.

Representative Democracy Remains A Popular Ideal, But People Around The World Are Critical Of How It’s Working

The health of democracy has declined significantly in many nations over the past several years, but the concept of representative democracy continues to be popular among citizens across the globe.

Solid majorities in each of the 24 countries surveyed by Pew Research Center in 2023 describe representative democracy, or a democratic system where representatives elected by citizens decide what becomes law, as a somewhat or very good way to govern their country.

However, enthusiasm for this form of government has slipped in many nations since 2017. And the survey highlights significant criticisms of the way it’s working. Across the countries included in the study:

  • A median of 59% are dissatisfied with how their democracy is functioning.
  • 74% thinkelected officials don’t care what people like them think.
  • 42% say nopolitical party in their country represents their views.

What is a median?

Throughout this report, median scores are used to help readers see overall patterns in the data. The median percentage is the middle number in a list of all percentages sorted from highest to lowest.

What – or who – would make representative democracy work better?

Many say policies in their country would improve if more elected officials were women, people from poor backgrounds and young adults.

Electing more women is especially popular among women, and voting more young people into office is particularly popular among those under age 40.

Views are more mixed on the impact of electing more businesspeople and labor union members.

Overall, there is less enthusiasm for having more elected officials who are religious, although the idea is relatively popular in several middle-income nations (Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria and South Africa, as defined by the World Bank).

For this report, we surveyed 30,861 people in 24 countries from Feb. 20 to May 22, 2023. In addition to this overview, the report includes chapters on:

Read some of the report’s key findings below.

How do views of democracy stack up against nondemocratic approaches?

Even though most people believe representative democracy is a good way to govern, many are open to other forms of government as well.

Direct democracy – a system where citizens, rather than elected officials, vote directly on major issues – is also viewed favorably by majorities in nearly all countries polled.

In most countries, expert rule – in which experts, not elected officials, make key decisions – is also a popular alternative.

And there is notable support for more authoritarian models of government.

In 13 countries, a quarter or more of those surveyed think a system in which a strong leader can make decisions without interference from parliament or the courts is a good form of government. In four of the eight middle-income nations in the study, at least half of respondents express this view.

Even military rule has its supporters, including about a third or more of the public in all eight middle-income countries. There is less support in high-income nations, although 17% say military rule could be a good system in Greece, Japan and the United Kingdom, and 15% hold this view in the United States.

Representative Democracy Remains A Popular Ideal But People Around The World Are Critical Of How It’s Working 1Views on representative democracy

Strong support for representative democracy has declined in many nations since we last asked the question in 2017.

The share of the public describing representative democracy as a very good way to govern is down significantly in 11 of the 22 countries where data from 2017 is available (trends are not available in Australia and the U.S.).

For instance, 54% of Swedes said representative democracy was a very good approach in 2017, while just 41% hold this view today.

In contrast, strong support for representative democracy has risen significantly in three nations (Brazil, Mexico and Poland).

Views on autocratic leadership

Representative Democracy Remains A Popular Ideal But People Around The World Are Critical Of How It’s Working 2Support for a government where a strong leader can make decisions without interference from courts or parliaments has increased in eight of 22 nations since 2017.

It is up significantly in all three Latin American nations polled, as well as in Kenya, India, South Korea, Germany and Poland.

Support for a strong leader model is especially common among people with less education and those with lower incomes.

People on the ideological right are often more likely than those on the left to support rule by a strong leader.

Views on expert rule

Support for a system where experts, not elected officials, make key decisions is up significantly in most countries since 2017, and current views of this form of government may be tied at least in part to the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, in the U.S., 59% of those who believe public health officials have done a good job of responding to the coronavirus outbreak think expert rule is a good system, compared with just 35% among those who say public health officials have done a bad job of dealing with the pandemic.

Widespread belief that elected officials are out of touch

Representative Democracy Remains A Popular Ideal But People Around The World Are Critical Of How It’s Working 3One factor driving people’s dissatisfaction with the way democracy is functioning is the belief that politicians are out of touch and disconnected from the lives of ordinary citizens.

In every country surveyed, people who feel politicians don’t care about people like them are less satisfied with democracy.

Across 24 nations, a median of 74% say elected officials in their country don’t care what people like them think.

At least half of those surveyed hold this view in all countries but one (Sweden). Opinions about elected officials are particularly negative in Argentina, Greece, Nigeria, Spain and the U.S., where at least eight-in-ten believe elected officials don’t care what people like them think.

Many don’t think political parties represent them

While a median of 54% across the 24 countries surveyed say there is at least one party that represents their views well, 42% say there is no party that represents their views.

Israelis, Nigerians and Swedes are the most likely to say at least one party represents their opinions – seven-in-ten or more express this view in each of these countries.1 In contrast, about four-in-ten or fewer say this in Argentina, France, Italy and Spain. Americans are evenly divided on this question.

In 18 countries where we asked about ideology, people who place themselves in the center are especially likely to feel unrepresented. And in some countries, those on the right are particularly likely to say there is at least one party that represents their views.

The U.S. illustrates this pattern: 60% of American conservatives say there is a party that represents their opinions, compared with 52% of liberals and just 40% of moderates.

People rate their country’s leaders, parties and overall state of democracy poorly

The survey asked respondents how well they feel democracy is working in their country, and it also asked them toRepresentative Democracy Remains A Popular Ideal But People Around The World Are Critical Of How It’s Working 4 rate major national leaders and parties. Opinions on these questions may have shifted since the survey was conducted in spring 2023, but the overall results provide a relatively grim picture of the political mood in many nations. (Refer to Appendix A for details about the specific leaders and parties we asked about.)

  • There are only seven countries where half or more are satisfied with the way democracy is working.
  • Among the 24 national leaders included on the survey, just 10 are viewed favorably by half or more of the public.
  • Opposition leaders fare even worse – only six get favorable reviews.
  • Across the countries polled, we asked about 87 different political parties. Just 21 get a positive rating.
  • Opinions vary greatly across regions and countries, but to some extent, we see more positive views about leaders and parties in middle-income nations.

How ideology relates to views of representation

This report highlights significant ideological differences on many questions, including preferences regarding the characteristics of people who serve as elected officials.

Those on the political left are generally much more likely than those on the right to favor electing more labor union members, young adults, people from poor backgrounds and women.

Meanwhile, those on the right are more likely to say policies would improve if more religious people and businesspeople held elective office.

Ideological divisions on these topics are often especially sharp in the U.S. There are also very large partisan differences.

Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are much more likely than Republicans and Republican leaners to favor having more women, young adults, people from poor backgrounds and labor union members in office.

Meanwhile, Republicans are more likely to endorse electing more religious people and businesspeople.

In their own words: Ideas for improving democracy

The survey also included the following open-ended question: “What do you think would help improve the way democracy in this country is working?” Respondents describe a wide variety of ideas for making democracy work better, but a few common themes emerge:

Improving political leadership:Respondents want politicians who are more responsive to the public’s needs, more attentive to the public’s voice, less corrupt and more competent. Many would also like political leaders to be more representative of their country’s population in terms of gender, age, race and other factors.

Government reform:Many believe improving democracy will require significant political reform in their country. Views about what reform should look like vary considerably, but suggestions include changing electoral systems, shifting the balance of power between institutions, and placing limits on how long politicians and judges can serve. In several countries, people express a desire for more direct democracy.

Expecting more from citizens: Respondents also emphasize that citizens have an important role to play in making democracy work better. They argue that citizens need to be more informed, engaged, tolerant and respectful of one another.

Improving the economy: Many people – and especially those in middle-income nations – emphasize the link between a healthy economy and a healthy democracy. Respondents mention creating jobs; curbing inflation; changing government spending priorities; and investing more in infrastructure, such as roads, hospitals, water, electricity and schools.

The full results of the open-ended question will be released in an upcoming Pew Research Center report. For a preview of some of the findings, read “Who likes authoritarianism, and how do they want to change their government?”

Additional reports and analyses

Pew Research Center regularly explores public attitudes toward democracy and related issues around the world. The Center also regularly examines U.S. public opinion on topics related to democracy. Some of the most recent releases include:

Is the Reform of the UN Security Council a Good Try in a Lost Cause?

(IPS) – The myriads of proposals for the reform of the much-maligned Security Council have been kicked around the United Nations for more than two decades—with no significant progress.

Speaking at the General Assembly’s (GA) annual debate, GA President Dennis Francis told delegates last November that without structural reform, the Council’s performance and legitimacy will inevitably continue to suffer.

“Violence and war continue to spread in regions across the world, while the United Nations seems paralyzed due largely to the divisions in the Security Council,” he said.

With the world changing quickly, the Council is “dangerously falling short” of its mandate as the primary custodian for the maintenance of international peace and security, he said.

Meanwhile, a proposed new model for reforms, initiated by the Group of Four (G4: Brazil, Germany, India, and Japan), has been doing the rounds.

Not surprisingly, all four countries have been longstanding contenders for permanent seats (P5s) which have remained the privilege of five countries since the creation of the world body 79 years ago: the US, UK, France, China and the Russian Federation (replacing the USSR of a bygone era).

The G4 is calling for a total of 11 permanent members (P11): China, France, The Russian Federation, UK and the US, plus six others.

In the event of possible expansion, and upon the adoption of a comprehensive framework resolution on Security Council reform, interested Member States prepared to assume the functions and responsibilities of permanent members of the Security Council would submit their candidatures in writing to the President of the General Assembly.

The General Assembly will then proceed, as soon as possible, at a date to be determined by the President, to the election of six new permanent members, by a vote of two thirds of the members of the General Assembly. through a secret ballot. The rules of procedure of the General Assembly will be applied to the election of the new permanent members.

Is the Reform of the UN Security Council a Good Try in a Lost CauseThe criteria of Article 23 (1) should also apply to the election of the new permanent members: “due regard shall be paid, in the first instance to their contributions to the maintenance of international peace and security and to the other purposes of the Organization, and also to equitable geographical distribution”.

The non-permanent members with a two-year term, currently at 10, will be increased to a total of 14/15 seats – The election process for non-permanent members will follow current practices.

According to the G4 proposal, the six new permanent members of the Security Council shall be elected according to the following pattern: (i) Two from African Member States: (ii) Two from Asia-Pacific Member States, (iii) One from Latin American and Caribbean Member States; (iv) One from Western European and Other Member States.

The four/five new non-permanent members of the Security Council shall be elected according to the following pattern; (i) One/Two from African Member States: (ii) One from Asia-Pacific Member States: (iii) One from Eastern European Member States; (iv) One from Latin American and Caribbean Member States.

Member States should give due consideration during the nomination and election of non-permanent members to adequate and continuing representation of small and medium size Member States, including Small Island Developing States (SIDS).

Andreas Bummel, Executive Director, Democracy Without Borders, told IPS any reconfiguration of the Security Council would have to be adopted in line with Article 108 of the Charter, which means it requires the support of two thirds of UN members and the P5.

“Given the fact that Security Council reform has been discussed for decades, I think it is legitimate to pursue such a vote instead of consensus. Whether it is politically wise is a different question.”

In essence, he said, the G4 are not willing to compromise. “If they can mobilize a two thirds majority and the P5, fine. But if not, it’s finally game over for them. I can’t see how a broad agreement is possible without introducing new concepts that go beyond today’s permanent and non-permanent seats.”

Re-electable seats rotating among the membership of certain regions is a good approach, in my mind. New permanent seats vested with a veto will make the Security Council even more unworkable.

This option should be off the table. Delaying a decision for fifteen years does not solve this, he declared.

On the question of the veto, the G4 says Member States should be invited to continue discussions on the use of the veto in certain circumstances.

The new permanent members, would as a principle, have the same responsibilities and obligations as current permanent members.

However, the new permanent members shall not exercise the veto-right until a decision on the matter has been taken during a review, to be held fifteen years after the coming into force of the reform.

Amendments to the charter shall reflect the fact that the extension of the right of veto to the new permanent members will be decided upon in the framework of a review.

The enlarged Security Council would be encouraged to, inter alia, hold regular consultations with the President of the General Assembly; submit an analytical and comprehensive evaluation of the Council’s work in the annual report to the General Assembly; submit more frequently special reports to the General Assembly in accordance with Articles 15 (1) and 24 (3) of the Charter, improve participation of the Chair of the Peacebuilding Commission and the chairs of the country-specific configurations of the Commission in relevant debates and, in an appropriate format, in informal discussions

Asked for her comments, Barbara Adams, Senior Policy Analyst, Global Policy Forum, told IPS: Surely, now 11 (not 5) veto-wielding powers, will not correct the inability of P5 or P11 to put their chartered responsibility for international peace and security above their national security interests.

She pointed out that the G4 proposal for a 15-year pause on use of the veto acknowledges the tension between expanding the number of permanent members and the veto.

Re the proposal for seats for developing countries, and countries from other regions, they should not need to be justified by the concept of regional representation, she argued.

“The privilege of permanency in the Security Council extends beyond the use of veto. The “chill factor” of this privilege reaches into many parts of the UN system in ways formal and informal such as preferential treatment for senior UN positions,” Adams declared.

Joseph Chamie, a consulting international demographer and a former director of the UN Population Division, told IPS reform of the United Nations Security Council is not a new proposal; it’s been around for decades.

Despite committees, discussions and calls by many Member States for reform of the Council, he pointed out, little progress has been achieved towards equitable representation, inclusiveness and legitimacy.

“Increasing numbers of both governments and people consider the Council to be ineffectual and unjust and require reform, including expanding membership and restricting vetoes”.

While enormous changes have occurred in the world over the past eight decades, he said, the Council continues to have the same five permanent members.

When established, the five permanent members accounted for about 35 percent of the world’s population. Today, they represent 25 percent and by mid-century they are expected to represent 20 percent of the world’s population, said Chamie, author of numerous publications on population and related issues.

In brief, the desire for reform of the Security Council is both understandable and reasonable and despite the geo-political challenges, reform should be undertaken without further delays, he declared.

IPS UN Bureau Report

Journalists and Activists Detained in Moscow Crackdown Amidst Protest for Ukraine War Returnees

Numerous individuals, including reporters from international media outlets, have been apprehended in Moscow following a crackdown on demonstrators at the election headquarters of Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to reports from independent sources on Saturday.

The demonstration was orchestrated by the spouses of deployed men amidst a growing movement of women demanding the return of their husbands and sons from Ukraine. Video footage reviewed by CNN depicts Russian authorities arresting several individuals wearing “Press” vests in the vicinity of Red Square.

The protest, dubbed “500 days of mobilization,” attracted women to the Kremlin walls before progressing to Putin’s nearby election headquarters, as per reports. SOTAvision, an independent Russian news source, shared on their Telegram channel that a correspondent witnessed security forces “grabbing random individuals from the crowd, targeting only men.”

OVD-info, a watchdog group monitoring Russian repression, stated that at least 27 people, with only one identified as a protester, were transported in a police van to Kitay-Gorod station, where they are presently detained. Despite OVD-info’s attempts to send a lawyer to visit the detainees, access was denied.

Mediazona, an independent Russian media organization, reported on Saturday that among those detained are journalists employed by Kommersant, France Press, and Spiegel, as well as human rights activists. Furthermore, OVD-info mentioned that seven journalists covering the rally were taken to the Basmanny police station, including Andrei Zaiko from the Japanese television company “Fuji.”

According to OVD-info’s Telegram update, one employee from state media has been released from Kitay-Gorod along with three minors. The update stated, “Police officers informed them that they intend to release the remaining federal and foreign media personnel soon, but will retain ‘foreign agents’ media representatives at the police station. All detainees also had their phones confiscated.”

Russia’s foreign agents law, expanded in late 2022 to encompass individuals or groups deemed to “receive support and/or be under foreign influence,” has drawn criticism as a Kremlin maneuver to silence critics of its actions in Ukraine, including journalists.

UN Court Urges Israel to Prevent Genocide in Gaza, Halts Short of Ceasefire Mandate

The highest court of the United Nations on Friday issued a directive to Israel, urging it to take all possible measures to prevent fatalities, devastation, and any acts of genocide in Gaza. However, the panel refrained from mandating an end to the military offensive devastating the Palestinian territory.

Court President Joan E. Donoghue expressed profound concern over the ongoing loss of life and human suffering in the region. This ruling, arising from a genocide case initiated by South Africa, constitutes a significant censure of Israel’s conduct during wartime, escalating international pressure to cease the nearly four-month-long offensive that has resulted in over 26,000 Palestinian casualties and displaced around 85% of Gaza’s population.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denounced the court’s willingness to address genocide charges as a lasting disgrace, vowing to persist with the war effort. The timing of the ruling, coinciding with International Holocaust Remembrance Day, amplified its impact.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the legally binding nature of the court’s decisions, expressing trust in Israel’s compliance. Former Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz urged a focus on prosecuting Hamas militants responsible for deadly attacks on Israeli civilians.

The court also called for the release of hostages still held by Hamas and urged international pressure on Israel to adhere to its directives. While most measures received overwhelming judicial support, Israeli Judge Aharon Barak endorsed two orders, emphasizing their potential to mitigate tensions and alleviate suffering.

Although legally binding, compliance with these provisional measures remains uncertain. Netanyahu affirmed Israel’s determination to defend itself, employing a more defiant tone in Hebrew for domestic audiences.

The court mandated Israel to prevent genocide and refrain from harming Palestinians, facilitate urgent humanitarian aid to Gaza, and address any incitement to genocide, among other measures. Israel is required tosubmit a report on its actions within a month, with potential consequences for non-compliance.

Legal experts anticipate years of proceedings to address South Africa’s genocide allegations fully. The U.N. Security Council is slated to convene to discuss the ruling’s implications.

In Israel, commentators expressed relief over the absence of a cease-fire mandate, which could have led to a clash with the U.N. Palestinians and their supporters welcomed the court’s decision as a step towards holding Israel accountable.

The U.S. reiterated its stance on minimizing harm to civilians, increasing humanitarian aid, and curtailing dehumanizing rhetoric but maintained that allegations of genocide are baseless.

The South African government hailed the ruling as implicating Israel in potentially genocidal actions, refuting Israel’s claims of compliance with international law.

While Israel often boycotts international tribunals, it sent a high-level legal team in recognition of the case’s gravity. The Health Ministry in Gaza, under Hamas control, reports a death toll without distinguishing between combatants and civilians, with a significant proportion being women and children.

Israeli military sources assert that a substantial number of casualties were Hamas militants. U.N. officials fear further loss of life due to disease and malnutrition, with a significant portion of Gaza’s population facing starvation.

Law professor Yuval Shany opined that the court’s decision, though concerning, falls short of Israel’s worst fears and is unlikely to significantly alter military operations.

The court’s ruling represents a significant condemnation of Israel’s actions in Gaza, adding pressure to cease hostilities and address humanitarian concerns, while legal proceedings are expected to continue in the coming years.

https://religionnews.com/2024/01/27/un-court-orders-israel-to-prevent-genocide-in-gaza-but-stops-short-of-ordering-cease-fire/

Israel Defends Actions in Gaza Amid Genocide Accusations at the International Court

Accused of committing genocide against Palestinians, Israel staunchly defended its military operations in Gaza at the United Nations’ highest court on Friday. A day prior, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vehemently dismissed the allegations as hypocritical, decrying them as an “upside-down world” while facing charges of genocide. Israel, established in the aftermath of the Holocaust, faced the accusations brought by South Africa in one of the largest cases before an international court, drawing global attention and protesters from both sides.

South African lawyers urged the court on Thursday to immediately halt Israeli military operations in Gaza, home to 2.3 million Palestinians. While a decision on this request is expected in the coming weeks, the full case may extend over several years.

“We live at a time when words are cheap in an age of social media and identity politics. The temptation to reach for the most outrageous term to vilify and demonize has become, for many, irresistible,” expressed Israeli legal advisor Tal Becker at the Palace of Peace in The Hague.

Becker highlighted, “South Africa has regrettably put before the court a profoundly distorted, factual, and legal picture. The entirety of its case hinges on a deliberately curated, decontextualized, and manipulative description of the reality of current hostilities.”

While Israel commonly boycotts international tribunals, citing unfairness and bias, it has taken the unusual step of sending a high-level legal team to address the gravity of the accusations.

At the core of the case are Israel’s actions in Gaza, where a massive air and ground assault followed the crossing of Hamas militants into Israel on Oct. 7. The assailants killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted over 250 individuals, with more than half still in captivity. According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, over 23,000 people have been killed during the military campaign, with nearly 85% of Gaza’s population displaced, a quarter facing starvation, and significant areas reduced to rubble.

South Africa contends that Israel’s actions amount to genocide and are part of decades of oppression against Palestinians. Lawyer TembekaNgcukaitobi asserted, “The scale of destruction in Gaza, the targeting of family homes and civilians, the war being a war on children — all make clear that genocidal intent is both understood and has been put into practice. The articulated intent is the destruction of Palestinian life.”

Netanyahu rejected these claims, stating, “This is an upside-down world — the state of Israel is accused of genocide while it is fighting genocide. The hypocrisy of South Africa screams to the heavens.”

Contrary to South Africa’s allegations, Israel argues that it is acting in legitimate self-defense. The court must assess whether Israel’s operations comply with international agreements governing the conduct of war, even in response to severe attacks.

While the court’s findings are binding, it remains uncertain if Israel would comply with any order to halt military operations. Non-compliance could lead to U.N. sanctions, potentially vetoed by the United States, Israel’s steadfast ally. The White House refrained from commenting on potential responses if the court determines Israel committed genocide, with National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby dismissing the allegations as “unfounded.”

The case delves into one of the world’s most intractable conflicts, prompting protests for a second consecutive day outside the court. Pro-Israeli demonstrators commemorated hostages held by Hamas, while over 100 pro-Palestinian protesters voiced their concerns.

This case strikes at the core of Israel’s national identity, founded as a Jewish state in the aftermath of the Nazi Holocaust. Israel contends it is combating a formidable enemy responsible for the deadliest attack on its territory since its establishment in 1948. The nation asserts adherence to international law and efforts to minimize harm to civilians, attributing the high death toll to Hamas militants operating in residential areas.

South Africa seeks to broaden the case beyond the Israel-Hamas war, highlighting a history of systematic oppression and violence against Palestinians over the last 76 years. Justice Minister Ronald Lamola emphasized, “Mothers, fathers, children, siblings, grandparents, aunts, cousins are often all killed together. This killing is nothing short of destruction of Palestinian life. It is inflicted deliberately. No one is spared. Not even newborn babies.”

Approximately two-thirds of the casualties in Gaza are women and children, according to health officials. The case, unprecedented in its scope, raises questions about the responsibilities of nations in situations resembling genocide. The world court, which adjudicates disputes between nations, has never previously held a country responsible for genocide, with the closest instance being in 2007 when it ruled that Serbia “violated the obligation to prevent genocide” during the Bosnian enclave massacre in Srebrenica.

https://www.npr.org/2024/01/12/1224360624/israel-defends-itself-at-the-u-n-s-top-court-against-allegations-of-genocide

Legal Showdown at The Hague: South Africa Accuses Israel of Genocide in Gaza War

In a significant legal battle, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) commenced two days of hearings on Thursday, where South Africa accuses Israel of genocide in connection to its Gaza war. Israel vehemently rejects these allegations.

Lawyers representing South Africa urged the judges to issue binding preliminary orders against Israel, demanding an immediate cessation of its military campaign in Gaza. ICJ President Joan E. Donoghue outlined South Africa’s claims, stating that the country argues Israeli actions post the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas “are genocidal in character” and that Israel “failed to prevent genocide and is committing genocide.” Donoghue added that South Africa contends Israel violates “other fundamental obligations under the (U.N.) Genocide Convention.”

Pro-Israeli protesters, advocating for the release of hostages held by Hamas, gathered near the courthouse with banners reading “Bring them home.” Among the crowd, individuals waved Israeli and Dutch flags. Simultaneously, outside the court, protesters waved the Palestinian flag in support of South Africa’s stance.

The dispute strikes at the core of Israel’s national identity, being a Jewish state formed in the aftermath of the Holocaust. Additionally, it delves into South Africa’s identity, with the African National Congress comparing Israel’s policies to its own history under the apartheid regime.

Despite its usual skepticism toward U.N. and international tribunals, Israel assembled a robust legal team to defend its military operations launched after the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas. Juliette McIntyre, an international law expert, noted, “I think they have come because they want to be exonerated and think they can successfully resist the accusation of genocide.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video statement defending his country’s actions, emphasizing that Israel has no intention of permanently occupying Gaza or displacing its civilian population. He asserted that Israel is targeting Hamas terrorists and operating in compliance with international law, accusing Hamas of using Palestinian civilians as human shields.

In response to the case filed last year, the Palestinian Authority’s foreign ministry urged the court to take immediate action to protect the Palestinian people and call on Israel to halt its onslaught. The two days of preliminary hearings began with South Africa’s lawyers explaining the accusations against Israel and why they are calling for an immediate halt to military actions.

According to the Health Ministry in Hamas-run Gaza, Israel’s offensive has resulted in the deaths of over 23,200 Palestinians, with about two-thirds being women and children. The death toll does not distinguish between combatants and civilians. In the Oct. 7 attack, Hamas fighters killed approximately 1,200 people in several Israeli communities and abducted around 250 others.

During a visit to Tel Aviv, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken dismissed the case as “meritless,” emphasizing the ongoing threats against Israel from groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran.

The ICJ, responsible for resolving disputes between nations, has never ruled a country responsible for genocide. The closest instance was in 2007 when it determined that Serbia “violated the obligation to prevent genocide” in the 1995 massacre in Srebrenica.

The case hinges on the 1948 genocide convention, a response to World War II and the Holocaust, with both Israel and South Africa as signatories. South Africa’s detailed 84-page document argues that Israel has demonstrated intent to commit genocide.

South Africa seeks the court’s establishment of Israel’s responsibility for violations of the Genocide Convention, holding it fully accountable under international law, and ensuring protection for Palestinians in Gaza. A team of South African lawyers presented three hours of arguments, and Israel’s legal team will respond on the following day.

Human Rights Watch views these hearings as an opportunity to scrutinize Israel’s actions. Balkees Jarrah, the group’s associate international justice director, stated, “South Africa’s genocide case unlocks a legal process at the world’s highest court to credibly examine Israel’s conduct in Gaza in the hopes of curtailing further suffering.”

Israel will face another ICJ session next month, where hearings will open into a U.N. request for a non-binding advisory opinion on the legality of Israeli policies in the West Bank and east Jerusalem.

International Relations Will Be More Issue-Based Than Bloc-Based

In a multipolar, multi-discipline, multisource, and multi-requirement world, torque will play a predominant role in stability in international relations more than the centre of gravity.

The world has come to be defined as a global village. A village being the smallest social community living space, the world view of the day is significant in defining the close interactions in international relations at all levels. With such close cohabitation, interdependency cannot be homogenous across the spectrum and will be defined by specific requirements of nations leading to multipolarity.

World is One Family

“Vasudeva Kudumbakam” is a Sanskrit phrase found in Indian texts such as the Upanishads, of the Vedic era, which means “The World Is One Family”. The idea of the phrase remains relevant today as it emphasizes a global perspective, prioritizing collective well-being over individual or family interests. It encourages thinking about the welfare of others, fostering global solidarity. This ancient Indian concept is all the more relevant today when the world, in addition to the usual issues, is grappling to address crucial issues like climate change, sustainable development, and tolerance of diversity.

Global communications

Global communication such as satellites and the internet are redefining power in world politics in ways that traditional theories of international relations have not yet seriously considered. The most telling effect is the increased forced transparency in interactions between Nations. Information technologies since decades and Artificial Intelligence presently, have profoundly transformed the nature of military power because of emerging weapons systems dependent on laser and information processing.

International Relations Will Be More Issue Based Than Bloc Based (Wikipedia)
Picture: TheUNN

Then there are the satellites. The worries expressed by the West, on the recent launching of spy satellites by North Korea, is an example of how digital footprints have established an information power and deterrence similar to the nuclear power and deterrence of an earlier era.

Emerging technologies in communications have also had a profound impact on soft power such as ideological, cultural, or moral appeals. Although there is no hard or soft theoretical evidence on the dynamics, trends indicate that the latter is assuming increasing traction and importance.

Communities of affinity

International relations in politics and cooperation in security and economics, through government, businesses and nonprofits develop cooperative exchanges between nations and benefit commerce, security, quality of life, and the environment. Today’s world is richly connected and complex and for stability, there is a need for a globally oriented perspective on issues that transcend international boundaries. Exceptional economic integration, unprecedented threats to peace and security, and an international focus on human rights and environmental protection all are subject to the complexity of international relations in the twenty-first century.

Global communications, powered digitally, are empowering hitherto dormant groups and voices in the international community. Their voices have created an ecosystem for the contestation of new political, economic, and, more tellingly, cultural boundaries. The interactive and instant nature of these communications has created large perceived moral spaces for exploring changing values among communities of affinity rather than geography.

Surge of nationalism

Nationalism is both omnipresent and elusive. It pervades global behavior and can be seen as both a conservative and a revolutionary force. It attacks the status quo such as populism and authoritarianism. Nationalism calls for allegiance in a nation greater than other groups that may be based on religion, political leaning, or other socio-economic groups.

Nationalism is perceived as seeking distinction from other nations. It gives preference to political representation striving to preserve the nation by the nation for the nation. Nationalism can be dormant including legal immigrants and minorities or a problematic, infectious, escalatory, and overtly violent nationalism to exclude minorities, endangering stability. At the end of the day, the fresh thought of nations for the nation with slogans such as “America for Americans” and “Make in India’ and the spirit behind them in vibrant democracies cannot be faulted.

Conflicting relationships

As late as the end of the Second World War, the world was divided into two camps – the Allied and the Axis. In the succeeding decades, the Cold War set in and the communist bloc came into being as a powerful section under the leadership of the erstwhile USSR. On the opposite side was the West, including the vanquished in war,  under the economically fast-growing influence of the growing [power of the USA.

Over the last few years, all of this changed, especially after the disintegration of the erstwhile USSR. Here are a few samples of conflicting relationships in the world today, if you may. Iran and Türkiye are together against Israel but on opposing sides against Armenia. Türkiye, while spewing venom against Israel, does not want to cut economic ties with it. China is “neutral” in the matter of the Russian invasion of Ukraine but wants a close economic relationship with the USA who, as part of NATO, are wholly behind Ukraine.

Issue-based relationships

A system is said to be in stable equilibrium if, when displaced from equilibrium, it experiences a net force or torque in a direction opposite to the direction of the displacement. By the laws of physics, there can be no stability without tension. Would you say that going forward the world will see stability in contradictory multilateral relations rather than gravitating towards any particular permanent bloc?

In an environment where the practice of international relations is valuable in their own respective space, in a wide array of settings, and differing players distinct from each other, the requirement for stability is varied and independent of each other. The kaleidoscope of such relations is explicit in areas of trade policies between nations, travel related to business, tourism, and immigration, providing people with opportunities to enhance their lives. These different spaces help nations to cooperate to pool resources, and share information as a way to face global issues that go beyond any particular country or region in that particular space.

In a multipolar world, the relationships will be defined by the requirements in each separate space like security, economy, etc rather than gravitating wholesome to defined blocs.

(The author is an Indian Army veteran and a contemporary affairs commentator. Views are personal. He can be reached at vishkl@gmail.com )

Read more at: https://www.southasiamonitor.org/spotlight/changing-world-order-international-relations-will-be-more-issue-based-bloc-based

Timeless Wonders: Awe-Inspiring Churches That Transcend Centuries

Experiencing the grandeur of some of the world’s most beautiful churches transcends religious boundaries. The intricate details and awe-inspiring architecture of these structures go beyond mere places of worship, becoming powerful testaments to human strength and creativity.

Duomo di Milano – Milan:

Milan’s central cathedral, the Duomo di Milano, is a colossal masterpiece that has dominated the cityscape since construction began in 1386. Commissioned by Milan’s ruler Gian Galeazzo Visconti, the Gothic-style cathedral aimed to symbolize the grandeur of the city. While the nave was consecrated in 1418, the construction continued for over 200 years, involving thousands of artisans, sculptors, and workers, making it an ongoing testament to human dedication.

Interesting Facts:

  1. The Duomo is the world’s fifth-largest Christian church, covering an entire city block.
  2. Adorned with 135 gargoyles, 700 figures, and 3,400 statues, it boasts more statues than any other building globally.
  3. A sundial placed in 1768 by astronomers on the main entrance’s floor, using a hole in the wall, still precisely regulates clocks today.

La Sagrada Familia – Barcelona:

Barcelona’s La Sagrada Familia, a uniquely designed cathedral by Antoni Gaudí, has been under construction since 1882. Gaudí, inspired by nature, dedicated 43 years of his life to this cathedral before his untimely demise. Consecrated as a minor basilica by Pope Benedict XVI in 2010, it continues to attract over 4.5 million visitors annually.

Interesting Facts:

  1. At Gaudí’s death, only one tower, the crypt, the apse walls, and one portal were complete.
  2. The interior features a “forest” supporting the ceiling, with pillars resembling colorful trees.
  3. The cathedral boasts 17 towers, symbolizing the Apostles, Virgin Mary, and evangelists.

St. Basil’s Cathedral – Moscow:

Moscow’s St. Basil’s Cathedral, a vibrant testament to Russian architecture, commenced and concluded construction in the mid-1500s under the rule of Ivan the Terrible. Initially named the Church of the Intercession, its current moniker honors Basil the Blessed, buried in the cathedral in 1557.

These magnificent churches, from Milan’s Duomo di Milano to Barcelona’s La Sagrada Familia and Moscow’s St. Basil’s Cathedral, stand as living testaments to the artistic prowess and dedication of generations past. Whether it’s the ongoing construction of La Sagrada Familia or the vibrant history of St. Basil’s Cathedral, these architectural marvels continue to inspire awe and wonder, transcending time and beliefs.

UN Chief Antonio Guterres Vows Persistent Push for Gaza Ceasefire Amidst Security Council Setback; Urges COP28 Leaders to Tackle Emissions Crisis

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized on Sunday his unwavering commitment to seeking a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, asserting that the ongoing conflict undermined the credibility and authority of the Security Council. Guterres made these remarks at the Doha Forum conference, where he addressed the recent veto by Washington on a proposed U.N. Security Council resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war.

“I urged the Security Council to press to avert a humanitarian catastrophe, and I reiterated my appeal for a humanitarian ceasefire to be declared,” Guterres stated. Despite the disappointing outcome, he emphasized the continued necessity of such a ceasefire, stating, “Regrettably, the Security Council failed to do it, but that does not make it less necessary. I will not give up.”

Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, affirmed Doha’s commitment to exerting pressure on both Israel and Hamas for a truce, even as the chances for success appeared to be diminishing. Qatar, serving as a key mediator with several political leaders of Hamas based in the country, has actively facilitated negotiations between the Palestinian group and Israel.

Sheikh Mohammed underscored the impact of diplomatic efforts, noting that hostages were released from Gaza due to negotiations, not solely as a result of Israel’s military actions. Despite the challenges, he maintained Qatar’s resolve in pursuing a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

The head of UNRWA, the U.N. aid agency for Palestinians, Philippe Lazzarini, decried the dehumanization of Palestinians, asserting that it has allowed the international community to tolerate Israel’s sustained attacks on Gaza. Lazzarini emphasized the urgent need for a humanitarian ceasefire, stating, “There is no doubt that a humanitarian ceasefire is needed if we want to put an end to hell on earth right now in Gaza.”

The opposition to a ceasefire from the United States and Israel stems from their belief that it would primarily benefit Hamas. Instead, Washington advocates for intermittent pauses in fighting to safeguard civilians and facilitate the release of hostages taken by Hamas in a deadly October 7 attack on Israel.

In addition to addressing the Gaza conflict, Secretary-General Guterres used the platform to appeal to leaders attending the COP28 climate conference. He urged them to reach a consensus on substantial emissions reductions to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). Despite previous commitments, Guterres highlighted that emissions are currently at a record high, with fossil fuels identified as the primary contributor.

At the climate summit in Dubai, tensions escalated as oil-producing nations clashed with other countries over a potential agreement to phase out fossil fuels. This discord jeopardizes the prospects of achieving a historic commitment to end the use of oil and gas in the context of 30 years of global warming talks.

“I urge leaders at COP28 in Dubai to agree on deep cuts to emissions, in line with the 1.5-degree limit,” Guterres urged. He further called upon fossil fuel companies and their supporters to leverage their significant resources to spearhead the transition to renewable energy, emphasizing the critical role they play in the global shift toward sustainable practices.

UN Chief Invokes Article 99 For Ceasefire In Gaza

In a historic invocation of Article 99, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has urged the UNSC to take urgent action and call for a human ceasefire in Gaza. Article 99 allows the Secretary-General to bring to the Security Council’s attention any pressing international security issue.

With an intensifying Israeli offensive and escalating civilian casualties, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres invoked a rarely exercised power this week to warn the Security Council of an impending “humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza. He urged members to demand an immediate humanitarian cease-fire.

Article 99 of the U.N. Charter is a provision of the United Nations Constitution. It states that the secretary-general — the U.N.’s top diplomat — may bring to the attention of the Security Council “any matter which, in his opinion, may threaten the maintenance of international peace and security.”

It was last used over half a century ago — which says the secretary-general may inform the council of matters he believes threaten international peace and security. This gives an important additional power to the secretary-general, since the real power at the U.N. is held by its 193 member nations and especially the 15 countries that serve on the Security Council.

Taking to X (formerly Twitter) Guterres shared a letter addressed to the UN Security Council and wrote, “I’ve just invoked Art. 99 of the UN Charter – for the 1st time in my tenure as Secretary-General. Facing a severe risk of collapse of the humanitarian system in Gaza, I urge the Council to help avert a humanitarian catastrophe  and appeal for a humanitarian ceasefire to be declared.”

Article 99 of the UN Charter grants the Secretary-General the authority to bring to the Security Council’s attention any matter that, in his judgment, poses a threat to international peace and security.

UN Chief Invokes Article 99 For Ceasefire In Gaza 2This unprecedented move comes after the Security Council’s delay in adopting a resolution supporting a ceasefire. In the letter, Guterres conveyed the grim reality of more than eight weeks of conflict, emphasizing the “appalling human suffering, physical destruction, and collective trauma across Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory.”

The Secretary General further emphasized the devastating toll of the military operation, revealing that over 15,000 people, with over 40% being children, had lost their lives. Thousands were injured, more than half of all homes were destroyed, and 80% of the 2.2 million population of what??? were forcibly displaced into increasingly confined areas.

In his letter, Guterres also  painted a dire picture of the healthcare system in Gaza, which is on the brink of collapse, with hospitals transformed into battlegrounds. He warned that with constant bombardment and a lack of shelter and essentials for survival, the breakdown of public order in Gaza was imminent.

Guterres believes that the humanitarian system and the humanitarian operations in Gaza are collapsing. He also warns in his letter that in the current situation, “amid constant bombardment by the Israeli Defense Forces and without shelter or essentials to survive, I expect public order to completely break down soon due to the desperate conditions, rendering even limited humanitarian assistance impossible.”

Guterres concluded the letter by stating that the international community has a responsibility to use all its influence to prevent further escalation and end this crisis. He urged the Security Council to take decisive action to avert an impending humanitarian catastrophe.

The United States on Friday, December 8th, 2023  vetoed a proposed United Nations Security Council demand for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza, diplomatically isolating Washington as it shields its ally.

Thirteen other members voted in favor of a brief draft resolution, put forward by the United Arab Emirates, while Britain abstained. The vote came after U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres made the rare move to formally warn the 15-member council of a global threat from the two-month long war.

“What is the message we are sending Palestinians if we cannot unite behind a call to halt the relentless bombardment of Gaza?” Deputy UAE U.N. Ambassador Mohamed Abushahab asked the council. “Indeed, what is the message we are sending civilians across the world who may find themselves in similar situations?”

The United States and Israel oppose a ceasefire because they believe it would only benefit Hamas. Washington instead supports pauses in fighting to protect civilians and allow the release of hostages taken by Hamas in a deadly Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

Deputy U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Robert Wood told the Security Council that the draft resolution was a rushed, imbalanced text “that was divorced from reality, that would not move the needle forward on the ground in any concrete way. We do not support this resolution’s call for an unsustainable ceasefire that will only plant the seeds for the next war.”

UN-Israel Relations Plummet as Secretary-General Invokes Rare Power for Gaza Ceasefire, Sparking Diplomatic Outcry

Israel’s relationship with the United Nations has reached a historic low following an escalation in tensions between the two entities this week. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres invoked Article 99 of the UN Charter, a seldom-used but potent tool, in his determined effort to secure a ceasefire in Gaza. This move, however, sparked outrage among Israeli diplomats who vehemently opposed calls for a ceasefire, asserting the need to continue their offensive against Hamas.

Guterres’ employment of Article 99 marked the seventh instance in the UN’s 78-year history and the first since 1989. The article empowers the UN chief to bring to the Security Council’s attention any issue that could exacerbate existing threats to international peace and security. In a letter to the council, Guterres urged for unified action to avert a humanitarian catastrophe, stating, “We are at a breaking point…there is a high risk of the collapse of the humanitarian support system in Gaza, which would have devastating consequences.”

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen criticized Guterres, labeling the UN chief’s tenure as a “danger to world peace” and accusing him of siding with Hamas. Cohen argued that the call for a ceasefire endorsed the October 7 attack by Hamas, where militants killed 1,200 people and took over 240 hostages. Israel’s offensive in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry in Ramallah, has resulted in over 16,000 deaths.

Guterres’ unprecedented use of Article 99 was described as a “symbolic punch” by Daniel Forti, a senior UN analyst at the International Crisis Group. Forti emphasized that, while unlikely to shift political dynamics within the Security Council, the rare utilization of this tool had a moral impact due to its infrequency.

Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Gilad Erdan argued against a ceasefire, contending that it would solidify Hamas’ control of Gaza and prolong suffering for all. He criticized Guterres for invoking Article 99, highlighting the contrast with other global conflicts that did not prompt a similar response.

The United States later vetoed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, referencing Guterres’ use of Article 99. Drafted by the United Arab Emirates and co-sponsored by at least 97 other countries, the resolution received majority support from thirteen Security Council members, with the UK abstaining. The US, exercising its veto power, emphasized Israel’s right to self-defense and criticized the resolution for overlooking Hamas’ attacks on October 7.

Gabriela Shalev, former Israeli ambassador to the UN, asserted that Israel-UN relations were at a historic low. Shalev, noting strained ties since Israel’s establishment in 1947, criticized the UN for not understanding Israel’s existential threat. Israeli diplomats, led by Erdan and Cohen, openly denounced the UN, with Erdan wearing a yellow Star of David to protest alleged inaction.

The ongoing conflict has strained not only relations with Guterres but extended to various UN agencies, including the World Health Organization, UN Women, and the UN’s Special Rapporteur for the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Francesca Albanese. Over 100 UN staffers have been killed in Gaza, marking the largest loss in the organization’s history, with UNRWA facing criticism from Israel.

Israeli media has amplified stories questioning UNRWA’s role in the war, with allegations of complicity in Hamas’ militancy. Albanese, the UN’s Special Rapporteur, faced accusations of being a “shameless Hamas-complicit official,” prompting her to defend her work and criticize the attacks as baseless.

Despite distrust, Shalev cautioned against anti-UN rhetoric, urging a focus on presenting the facts of the October 7 attack. She emphasized the need for a measured approach rather than emotional declarations to convey Israel’s perspective.

India’s Role in Rebuilding and Revival of Post-War Middle East

Can there be a Permanent Solution to the Plight of Palestinians and Israelis?

Feature and Cover India’s Role in Rebuilding and Revival of Post War Middle East

The recent release of a number of Israeli and Palestinian hostages and the temporary week long truce, which ended on December 1st should have been an occasion for the global community to reflect on how we could try to strive for not just a cease-fire but for long-lasting peace and economic development in the region.

While on the one hand, Israel has achieved significant economic development despite being surrounded by Islamic countries, on the other hand, Gaza remains backward and dependent primarily on Israel for even its basic needs of water, electricity, fuel, and employment for quite a few of its residents.

The attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7 demonstrated to the world the brutality and the barbarism of the terrorists. The reprisals by Israel have resulted in a lot of destruction, death, and misery for the people of Gaza in the West Bank. There is a much greater sense of insecurity for both the Israelis and the Palestinians.

This has also led to a very significant surge in anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim hate crimes not only in the region but in the US, Europe, and other countries.

Is the world destined to continue down the spiral of more wars, hatred, death, and destruction? Or is there an alternative vision or path possible?

Brief background

A lot has already been written and discussed about the conflict’s historical evolution and origins. The Israel-Palestine issue has persisted for decades and has resulted in considerable human suffering. Resolving the plight of the Palestinians and Israelis is of utmost importance for regional peace. Focusing on economic empowerment, employment opportunities, and education for the Palestinians could perhaps serve as a powerful tool to counter the allure of extremist ideologies and promote peace. The acceptance by the Islamic countries of the right of Israel to exist as a free country is also an essential requirement.

The dust of war eventually settles, but its scars are often long-lasting, especially in regions plagued by protracted conflicts like the Middle East. Yet, as daunting as the task of rebuilding might seem, the post-war era can serve as an inflection point, an opportunity to sow seeds of lasting peace and prosperity.

War robs individuals, particularly youth, of their aspirations, thrusting them into a vortex of despair and, often, extremist ideologies. So, the question is, how can we pivot from devastation to a renaissance in the post-war Middle East?

How can we aspire for a prosperous Palestinian and Israeli population living in peace and harmony, reaping the benefits of regional economic cooperation, and providing a model for conflict resolution worldwide?

Economic Integration: The Power of Unity

The prospect of the India-Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEEC) need not be seen only as an economic initiative but also as a gesture for peace in a conflict-prone region. By linking Bharat to Europe via the Middle East, we’re not merely talking about trade and investment; we’re fostering an environment where economies are interdependent, thus making conflict detrimental to all.

The India-Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEEC) can possibly bring significant investments and trade opportunities for Palestinians and others in the region. Developing Special Economic Zones (SEZ) within Palestine in collaboration with Israel and other countries involved in IMEEEC would focus on manufacturing, technology, and services, drawing investment from nations. This would be a win-win situation, as the corridor will bolster the economies of all participant countries.

Imagine the ripple effects of infrastructure projects intertwining Gaza, the West Bank, and Israel into this corridor. These aren’t just roads, ports, and rails but lifelines of hope, conduits of opportunity.

Investing in Youth and Women: The Beacon of Hope

Youth and women are the torchbearers of our future. However, radical voices can seductively intercept a future shadowed by unemployment. By aligning with nations like Bharat, known for its prowess in the IT sector, we can equip the youth and women with sought-after skills. The twofold vision is to reduce unemployment and nurture ambassadors of peace, who have far more to lose in times of conflict. Bharat has already been extending phenomenal support under the ITEC (Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation) Program to the citizens of many of these countries for many decades now. Bharat, therefore, has the experience and the expertise in this regard.

Moreover, let’s incentivize peace. If companies from the IMEEEC region employ Palestinian youths, they should benefit from tax breaks and other incentives.

  1. Skill Development: Collaborate with international agencies to establish vocational training centers. Partner with countries like India, which has vast experience in IT and service sectors, to train youth in these domains.
  2. Job Fairs and Employment Drives: Regularly organize job fairs featuring companies from Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Middle Eastern countries to promote employment among Palestinian youths.
  3. Incentives for Employers: Provide tax breaks and financial incentives to companies from the IMEEEC region that employ a significant percentage of Palestinians.

Education: The Pillar of Progress

Schools must become the sanctuaries of hope and enlightenment in our quest for lasting peace. Through partnerships with global universities, we can elevate academic standards and instill values of coexistence and unity. When children are taught stories of camaraderie, not conflict, they’ll pen a different, peaceful chapter for the region.

  1. Educational Exchange Programs: Collaborate with universities in Israel, India, Europe, and the Middle East to offer scholarships for Palestinian students.
  2. Upgraded Curriculum: Ensure that the curriculum in Palestinian schools is in line with international standards. Focus on teaching critical thinking, STEM, peace education, and coexistence.
  3. Teacher Training Programs: Collaborate with international educational organizations to train teachers, ensuring high academic standards.

Promoting Peace, Countering Terrorism, and Anti-Semitism:

Bharat has always condemned terrorism in the strongest terms and has shown zero tolerance for terrorism in any shape or form. Promoting peace, countering terrorism, and addressing anti-Semitism requires a multi-pronged approach, encompassing education, dialogue, policy reform, and community engagement.

  1. Media and Education: Promote peace, unity, and coexistence narratives in Palestinian media and educational content. Counter any narratives of hatred and division. Incorporate lessons on the Holocaust, the history of Jews, and the contributions of diverse groups to human civilization to foster understanding and dispel myths.
  2. Youth Engagement: Establish peace clubs in schools and universities that organize events promoting peace and understanding. Promote exchange programs where individuals can immerse themselves in different cultures and religions to foster understanding.
  3. Interfaith Dialogues: Encourage interfaith dialogues within Palestine and between Palestinians and Israelis to foster understanding and unity. Set up interfaith discussions where religious leaders can address common misconceptions about their beliefs and highlight similarities.
  4. Hate Crime Legislation: Strengthen laws that penalize hate crimes, ensuring they are adequately enforced.
  5. Counter-radicalization Programs: Develop programs explicitly targeting individuals at risk of radicalization, offering them support, education, and alternative perspectives.
Ambassador Pradeep Kapur

Ambassador Pradeep Kapur is an acknowledged “luminary diplomat,” with a distinguished career working with leaders and policymakers in different continents of the world: Asia, Africa, Europe, North America, and South America. He was the author and editor of many books. Kapur was Ambassador of India to Chile and Cambodia and Secretary at the Indian Ministry of External Affairs before joining as an academic in reputed universities in the USA and India. A graduate of the globally acclaimed Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi (IIT-D), he is Executive Director of Smart Village Development Fund (SVDF); International Economic Strategic Advisor, Intellect Design Arena; and Chairman, Advisory Council, DiplomacyIndia.com. His healthcare contributions include setting up of BP Koirala Institute of Health Sciences in Eastern Nepal, which is acclaimed as an exemplary bilateral India Nepal initiative.

Joseph M Chalil

Dr. Joseph M. Chalil, Chief Medical Officer at Novo Integrated Sciences, Inc., is a renowned physician executive with international recognition for his extensive contributions to healthcare innovation and research. Currently pursuing an LLM in Medical Law and Ethics at the University of Edinburgh Law School, he holds influential roles as Chairman of the Complex Health Systems Advisory Board and Adjunct Professor at Nova Southeastern University, Florida. Dr. Chalil, a U.S. Navy Medical Corps veteran, also serves as Chief Strategic Advisor for the American Association of Physicians of Indian Origin (AAPI) and is a Fellow of the American College of Healthcare Executives. His impactful book, “Beyond the Covid-19 Pandemic,” reflects his commitment to transforming global healthcare systems. A respected figure in healthcare and media, Dr. Chalil is known for his leadership in healthcare administration, balanced media representation, and insightful discussions on Indian TV news channels, showcasing his expertise in areas such as US-India relations, geopolitical issues, and public policy.

The Abraham Accords 2.0: A New Dawn in Middle Eastern Diplomacy

The Middle East, often perceived as a complex web of animosities and alliances, witnessed a historical turn with the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020. These agreements, brokered with the significant involvement of the United States, marked a paradigm shift in the diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab nations.

Named after the patriarch Abraham, a revered figure in Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, the Abraham Accords are a series of normalization agreements between Israel and various Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.

Before 2020, only two Arab nations—Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994)—had established full diplomatic relations with Israel. The Abraham Accords, therefore, represent a significant expansion of Israel’s formal recognition within the Arab world.

The Accords entail the establishment of full diplomatic ties, including the opening of embassies, direct flights, trade deals, and broader cooperation in sectors such as technology, energy, and medicine.

The stymied Israel-Saudi Arabia Peace Accord needs to be restarted. This isn’t just about peace agreements; it’s a cultural and economic confluence. We’re not just linking economies; we’re linking destinies. Mutual investments and cultural exchanges between nations have historically proven to be robust peacekeepers.

MBS and Biden with Modi
Picture: PMO India

India/Bharat: A Potential Peace Broker in the Middle East

India’s unique positioning in global politics and its historical ties and soft power make it a potential mediator in the volatile Middle East, particularly between Arabs and Israelis. Bharat has managed to maintain cordial relations with both Arab nations and Israel. Historically, Bharat has supported the Palestinian cause, while in recent decades, it has fostered robust ties with Israel, particularly in the defense, agriculture, and technology sectors. This dual affinity ensures that India is seen as a neutral player, which is essential for effective mediation.

The significant Indian diaspora in the Middle East, especially in the Gulf countries, strengthens Bharat’s cultural and economic ties with the region. This diaspora contributes to their resident countries’ economies and acts as a bridge between their homeland and the Middle East. Their presence can be leveraged as they symbolize the mutual respect and shared values between Bharat and the Middle East.

Every brick we lay in the post-war Middle East can be a stepping stone towards an enduring peace or another block in an endless maze of conflicts. By integrating our economies, investing in the youth and women, and reimagining education, we don’t just rebuild post-war Palestine and ensure the future security of Israel; we revive hope, unity, and a promise of a brighter, peaceful tomorrow.

A prosperous and peaceful Palestinian society living in peace with Israel can be realized through a combination of regional cooperation, economic initiatives, and education. A focus on these areas will provide Palestinian youth with hope and purpose, making the ideologies of hate and extremism less attractive. Bharat has emerged as an essential global player, as was apparent during the G20 Summit and the Voice of Global South Summit recently in Bharat. Due to the high stakes for all countries and its greater acceptance as an essential global entity, Bharat can endeavor to line up the support of the USA, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and other like-minded countries in these efforts. With the cooperation of regional powers and the international community, a brighter future for Palestine, Israel, and the entire region is within reach.

Given its deep-rooted connections, neutrality, and the respect it commands in the Middle East, Bharat can play a pivotal role in fostering peace in the region. While the challenges in the Middle East are complex, Bharat’s involvement can provide a fresh perspective and a neutral ground for dialogue. As the world’s largest democracy, Bharat can be a beacon of hope for a peaceful Middle East.

US House Foreign Affairs Committee Approves Bill Seeking To End Tibet-China Dispute

A Bill aimed at strengthening US efforts to push China to negotiate with the Dalai Lama’s envoys and resolve the ongoing Tibet-China dispute can now proceed to the House floor, following a unanimous vote by the US House Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday, November 29, 2023.

The bipartisan legislation, known as the Resolve Tibet Act, received approval at a markup meeting attended by Tibetan Americans, according to the Washington-based advocacy group International Campaign for Tibet (ICT).

The Resolve Tibet Act establishes official US policy that China must resume dialogue with the Dalai Lama’s envoys, emphasizing the unresolved conflict between Tibet and China and Tibet’s undetermined legal status under international law.

US House Foreign Affairs Committee Approves Bill Seeking To End Tibet China DisputeAdditionally, the US could also explore activities to improve prospects for dialogue leading to a negotiated agreement on Tibet and coordinate with other governments in multilateral efforts towards the goal of a negotiated agreement on Tibet. Furthermore, it should encourage the Chinese government to address the aspirations of the Tibetan people regarding their distinct historical, cultural, religious and linguistic identity.

The repression in Tibet has intensified over the decades and China’s constant attacks have constantly deteriorated the lives of Tibetan people, Voice Against Autocracy reported.

The bill, an amended House version of the legislation, was introduced last year; however, the dialogue process has been stalled since 2010. The bill aims to pressure China to resume negotiations with the Dalai Lama’s envoys or democratically elected Tibetan leaders, according to the International Campaign for Tibet (ICT).

The bill also seeks to dismiss as inaccurate the Chinese claim that Tibet has been part of China since antiquity, and it will empower the State Department to actively counter China’s disinformation about Tibetan history, people and institutions.

According to the Resolve Tibet Act, China’s policies are “systematically suppressing the ability of the Tibetan people to preserve their religion, culture, language, history, way of life and environment.”

The Resolve Tibet Act states that Tibetans “are a people with a distinct religious, cultural, linguistic and historical identity,” as per the ICT.

The approval of the bill comes just days after President Joe Biden met Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco, where the White House said that Biden raised concerns about China’s human rights abuses in Tibet.

The Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act states that it is US policy that the dispute between Tibet and China must be resolved in accordance with international law, including the UN Charter, by peaceful means through dialogue and without preconditions, the ICT stated.

According to the legislation, the US should promote substantive dialogue without preconditions between the Chinese government and the Dalai Lama, his representatives or the democratically elected leaders of the Tibetan community.

Additionally, the US could also explore activities to improve prospects for dialogue leading to a negotiated agreement on Tibet and coordinate with other governments in multilateral efforts towards the goal of a negotiated agreement on Tibet.

Furthermore, it should encourage the Chinese government to address the aspirations of the Tibetan people regarding their distinct historical, cultural, religious and linguistic identity.

Losing Their Religion, These 13 Countries Are The World’s Most Atheistic

Many countries turned to the scientific method and embraced atheism, nontheism, and apatheism. As you will notice, there is no clear pattern, though European studies suggest that countries with economic growth are losing their religion more rapidly. The situation in the East is just as interesting, so with that in mind, take a look at some of the most atheistic countries in the world.

People’s Republic of China

The country that gave the world Buddhism, Taoism, and Confucianism is mostly unreligious. Partly, that is due to China’s unitary one-party ruled by the Chinese Communist Party. This does not mean that the people of China do not cherish their spirituality, though in much less obvious ways than people in other countries.

Losing Their Religion These 13 Countries Are The World’s Most Atheistic 2Japan

The third largest economy’s population is primarily irreligious. Many Japanese people hold onto their traditional philosophies, but the majority are not religious in the Western sense of the word.

Republic of Estonia

The Baltic country is consistent with its no religious affiliation. Around 60 percent of people do not practice religion, and those who do are primarily Christians. The country is doing reasonably well despite being one of the smallest economies in the world.

Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

Around 70 percent of North Koreans are not religious. The rest are divided between Chondoism, Shamanism, and a small percentage of Buddhism. According to one of the State Department reports, Christians were considered the “most dangerous political class of people, and the persecution is violent and intense.”

Czech Republic

This Central European country enjoys a relatively high per capita income due to the car industry and nuclear power plants. In the first half of the XX century, around 90 percent of the population were Christians. As of 2021, less than 12% of the population identified with Christianity, mainly Catholicism, while another 10 percent belonged to other religions. Around seven in ten Czechs are religiously unaffiliated.

South Korea

This highly developed country has seen a rise in Christianity and a revival of Buddhism. However, 60% of its citizens identify with no religion. Like many countries in this region, spirituality is present in everyday life, but it is more about upholding traditions than believing in one religion.

Netherlands

Several of the happiest nations in the world are also mostly atheists or hold little regard for religion. The Netherlands is one of them, with 58% of its people labeling themselves as irreligious. The Dutch, however, believe in ecology, work-life balance, strong family ties, and acceptance of diversity.

France

One of the largest economies and the most developed countries, France has a rich history, but when it comes to religion, things are only going downhill. Projections show that the irreligious population will continue its growth in the upcoming decades.

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is also a European country with a rich history and powerful impact worldwide. Over 31 percent of its people are religiously unaffiliated, and that comes as no surprise if you look at the country’s history and relationship with the Catholic church. The British royals are the head of the Church of England, a Protestant Anglican church, and they’ve been a part of this religion since the XVI century.

Australia

The country embraces diversity, so it comes as no surprise that Australians are not that invested in religion. The believers are primarily members of Anglican and Catholic churches, though the country recognizes over 100 religions.

Germany

Around 42 percent of Germans are non-religious, and among them, 12 percent are atheists. Most Germans say religion has no significance in their lives, with only 33 percent believing that higher powers have an effect on their lives.

Sweden

Irreligion is common in Sweden, and a 2023 Gallup International Survey 2023 confirmed the nation has the highest percentage of citizens who do not believe in God. For most citizens, religion is not important, so much so that in 2016, Sweden became the first country to open neutral cemeteries.

Denmark

Around 50 percent of Danish people are not religious, with only 30 percent stating they believe in God or a higher power. Approximately 20 percent are undecided, though over 70 percent are registered at the Church of Denmark. Denmark is open to all religions, and like other Scandinavian countries, it prides itself on being open-minded and accepting.

Hopes And Expectations From COP28: The World Is At A Tipping Point On Climate Change

What happens in COP28 on Dubai’s climate conference battleground in the first half of December 2023 may not result in bloodshed but its consequences could be drenched in blood, mass migration, and starvation.

Happily, about 70,000 participants including political leaders, diplomats, business managers, academicians, and researchers will be participating in COP28. The COP -Conference of Parties – is held annually by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This is the 28th COP scheduled to start in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, known as the expo-city, ever happy to welcome tourists and visitors.

Hopes And Expectations From COP28 (Yahoo)
Picture: Yahoo

Sadly, it is the time when the number of battlegrounds around the world is on the rise without any end in sight! Ukraine and Russia in northern Europe; Israel and Palestine in the Middle East; internal wars in Syria, Sudan and Sahel. United Nations Security Council, which is charged with ensuring international peace and security, continues the efforts to stall the battles but has not succeeded in ensuring the peace.

One more battleground, on the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, is opening from 30th November to 12th December in the expo-city of Dubai. The battleground will be over on 12th December, but the planetary-level war will certainly continue. It has the potential to be termed World War III, the war between humanity and nature. The UN Security Council is not charged to even start a dialogue for a ceasefire and making peace in that war.  It is left to Bonn, Germany-based UNFCCC to fight the cause of WWII!

Categorically, all humans to varying degrees are responsible for starting and continuing this war. The choice of path to human development has now caused nearly irreversible damage to nature. It is the turn of nature now to hit back. Nature is reacting by causing droughts, floods, landslides, and wildfires that have started affecting human society across the borders of the countries. The hostages are poor of the world and they are rising in numbers.

World caught in a vicious cycle of chaos

As per a UN report released this year, extreme weather has caused the deaths of two million people and $4.3 trillion in economic damage over the past 50 years. The tragedy is that the poor suffer the most in extreme weather. Rich people have economic muscles, not only to ensure their survival but continue their onslaught on nature by emitting greenhouse gases. The richest one percent of the global population is responsible for the same amount of carbon emissions as the world’s poorest two-thirds, or five billion people, according to the research results released in  November 2023. The worst is that rich people continue to invest their money more in polluting industries.

The planet is caught in a vicious circle of chaos in which even the rich would perish. We do not know when but perish they will. Because the rich depend on the market consisting of these five billion people to make their money. As the market starts suffering the rich would suffer too! As the doomsday scenario says, ‘sixth planetary extinction’ is on the way. The fifth extinction was 65 million years ago when dinosaurs and the ecosystem vanished.

To use the United Nations term used in Agenda 21, rather sarcastically, ‘No one is left behind’ by nature in its climate onslaught. And nature has been literally ‘inclusive’ in the destruction of human habitats!  But let us not make a mistake, this larger war is also the result of the battles between factions. Factions include global south and global north, developed and developing countries. The list of factions also includes small-island-developing countries (SIDS), least developed countries (LDCs), indigenous groups, powerful fossil fuel businesses, farmers, and so on.

What happens in COP28 on Dubai’s climate conference battleground in the first half of December 2023 may not result in bloodshed but its consequences could be drenched in blood, mass migration, and starvation. COP after COP, the post-Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, the pledges and promises made by 198 countries that are party to climate conventions. 195 countries that are Parties to the Paris Climate Agreement committed through Nationally Determined Contributions NDCs to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. What is more, the commitments are made by the developed countries to provide USD 100 billion to the developing countries for reducing emissions. But the promises and pledges are not met, and implementation is not only slow but miserable and inadequate and almost suicidal.

The decade from 2010 to 2019 had the highest increase in greenhouse gas emissions in human history; the last four months of 2023 are the hottest on record; the last 11 months have caused the highest economic losses due to extreme climate events. The window to limit warming to 1.5°C, the target set by the world leaders in the Paris Climate Agreement, is rapidly closing; and the gap between where emissions should be and where they are is widening fast as per the UNEP Emission Gap Report (EGR) released recently.

So what one should expect from 2023

Experts have stated over the last year the expectations: strong action-oriented negotiations; making mitigation and adaptation finance available to developing countries as a matter of emergency; operationalizing loss and damage fund; focussing on non-CO2 greenhouse gases like methane; community-based and sub-national climate actions; undertaking out-of-box technologies, including carbon dioxide removal (CDR); space reflected solar electricity and so on.

And what is NOT expected from COP28

Firstly, the world is not expecting non-verified claims by countries, particularly by world leaders in COP28. Such claims promote greenwashing – misleading the public to believe that climate action is being taken for net zero. There is more risk from greenwashing than the climate crisis itself, as stated by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Secondly, the world is NOT  expecting that the vital issues related to mitigation, adaptation and finance are sidelined and duped by conned climate diplomacy. Recently, we have witnessed commotions like denouncing UAE’s presidency as ‘oil nation’s presidency’; prioritizing the action on mitigating fugitive methane by ignoring the reduction of emissions of carbon dioxide; including private finance in meeting the governmental public finance pledge of USD100 billion annually from 2020; asking China to contribute to the finances to developing countries; prioritizing carbon-offset;  changing the definitions of developing countries to ‘least-developing-countries; uncertain schemes like carbon-trading and carbon removal by overlooking the mitigation through lifestyle change.

Thirdly, the world is NOT expecting speeches by world leaders with deceptive declarations and diplomacy-coated false promises delivered in the COP. In this context decision of President Joe Biden not to attend COP28 is indeed welcome. Better not to be there than tricking the world with fake pledges!

Fourthly, the world is NOT expecting alternative technologies like battery-operated EVs and solar panels to be considered climate-friendly unless the environmentally friendly reuse, recycling and disposal of panels and batteries are integral parts of such technologies.

Fifthly, the world is not expecting the issue of climate justice to be discussed without historical context. Recently, the report has revealed that carbon emissions during colonial rules of Europeans and Japanese were assigned to the countries that were engaged in colonial rules after the industrial revolutions. The world, in this context, is not expecting to keep the International Court of Justice excluded from the issue of climate crimes during World War III. Punitive measures could range from exposing the countries by ‘naming and shaming’ to more serious ‘climate-sanctions’.

Can Dubai succeed in meeting these expectations? Let us wait to see by the end of COP28 if the negotiators are serious about delivering what the world is expecting and also not expecting.

(The author is a noted environmentalist, former Director UNEP, and Founder Director, Green TERRE Foundation, Pune, India. Views are personal)

Read more at: https://www.southasiamonitor.org/spotlight/hopes-and-expectations-cop28-world-tipping-point-climate-change

Cease-Fire’s Fragile End: Resumed Hostilities Raise Concerns for Captives as Israel and Hamas Grapple with Ongoing Hostage Crisis

The recently concluded week-long cease-fire, aimed at exchanging hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody, has given way to renewed hostilities between Israel and Hamas. Amidst efforts by mediators to broker another swap, concerns arise about the remaining captives in the besieged enclave.

In the deadly October 7 attack by Hamas and other militants on southern Israel, approximately 247 hostages were seized, resulting in over 1,200 casualties. In retaliation, Israel has pounded the Gaza Strip, claiming the lives of at least 13,300 individuals, with two-thirds being women and children, as reported by health authorities in the Hamas-ruled territory.

Examining the current status of hostages, Israel stated on Friday that 136 individuals remain captive in Gaza, comprising 119 men and 17 women and children. Notably, around 10 hostages are aged 75 and older. Among the captives, 11 are foreign nationals, including eight from Thailand, one each from Nepal and Tanzania, and one with French-Mexican citizenship.

Highlighting the plight of those still in captivity, families anxiously await the return of their loved ones, expressing concerns about the challenging conditions and inadequate access to food, water, and medicine. The uncertainty surrounding the fate of hostages, such as 10-month-old Kfir Bibas and his family, adds to the anguish of their relatives.

Despite the cease-fire, reports indicate that four hostages, including the oldest captive, have died in captivity. The military confirmed the deaths of Maya Goren (56), Arye Zalmanovich (86), Ronan Engel (54), and Eliyahu Margalit (75). Kibbutz Nir Oz, home to these individuals, suffered significant losses during the attack, with a quarter of its population killed or kidnapped.

Little information has been provided about the circumstances of the hostages’ deaths, but the military claims to have gained valuable insights from returned hostages. The grieving families mourn the loss of their loved ones, with the death of Arye Zalmanovich, a founding member of Kibbutz Nir Oz, and Maya Goren, a mother of four and kindergarten teacher, being particularly poignant.

Despite the grim news, there were moments of relief during the cease-fire, as 110 hostages held by Hamas were released. These included 86 Israeli citizens and 24 foreign nationals, primarily Thais. While the returnees generally appeared in stable health, some experienced weight loss, and one 84-year-old hostage returned in critical condition due to inadequate medical care during captivity.

Families celebrated the return of their loved ones, yet doctors emphasized the psychological toll of captivity, cautioning that recovery would be a lengthy process. The government, meanwhile, urged those released to refrain from disclosing details of their time as prisoners to ensure the safety of those still held captive. The lack of in-depth narratives about the hostages’ ordeals reflects this cautious approach.

Towards a Brighter Tomorrow: India’s G20 Presidency and the Dawn of a New Multilateralism

Today marks 365 days since India assumed the G20 Presidency. It is a moment to reflect, recommit, and rejuvenate the spirit of ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future.’

As we undertook this responsibility last year, the global landscape grappled with multifaceted challenges: recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, looming climate threats, financial instability, and debt distress in developing nations, all amid declining multilateralism. In the midst of conflicts and competition, development cooperation suffered, impeding progress.

Assuming the G20 Chair, India sought to offer the world an alternative to status quo, a shift from a GDP-centric to human-centric progress. India aimed to remind the world of what unites us, rather than what divides us. Finally, the global conversation had to evolve – the interests of the few had to give way to the aspirations of the many. This required a fundamental reform of multilateralism as we knew it.

PM Modi and Brazil PresidentInclusive, ambitious, action-oriented, and decisive—these four words defined our approach as G20 president, and the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration (NDLD), unanimously adopted by all G20 members, is testimony to our commitment to deliver on these principles.

Inclusivity has been at the heart of our presidency. The inclusion of the African Union (AU) as a permanent member of the G20 integrated 55 African nations into the forum, expanding it to encompass 80% of the global population. This proactive stance has fostered a more comprehensive dialogue on global challenges and opportunities.

The first-of-its-kind ‘Voice of the Global South Summit,’ convened by India in two editions, heralded a new dawn of multilateralism. India mainstreamed the Global South’s concerns in international discourse and has ushered in an era where developing countries take their rightful place in shaping the global narrative.

Inclusivity also infused India’s domestic approach to G20, making it a People’s Presidency that befits that world’s largest democracy. Through “Jan Bhagidari” (people’s participation) events, G20 reached 1.4 billion citizens, involving all states and Union Territories (UTs) as partners. And on substantive elements, India ensured that international attention was directed to broader developmental aims, aligning with G20’s mandate.

At the critical midpoint of the 2030 Agenda, India delivered the G20 2023 Action Plan to Accelerate Progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), taking a cross-cutting, action-oriented approach to interconnected issues, including health, education, gender equality and environmental sustainability.

A key area driving this progress is robust Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI). Here, India was decisive in its recommendations, having witnessed the revolutionary impact of digital innovations like Aadhaar, UPI, and Digilocker first-hand. Through G20, we successfully completed the Digital Public Infrastructure Repository, a significant stride in global technological collaboration. This repository, featuring over 50 DPIs from 16 countries, will help the Global South build, adopt, and scale DPI to unlock the power of inclusive growth.

For our One Earth, we introduced ambitious and inclusive aims to create urgent, lasting, and equitable change. The Declaration’s ‘Green Development Pact’ addresses the challenges of choosing between combating hunger and protecting the planet, by outlining a comprehensive roadmap where employment and ecosystems are complimentary, consumption is climate conscious, and production is planet-friendly. In tandem, the G20 Declaration calls for an ambitious tripling of global renewable energy capacity by 2030. Coupled with the establishment of the Global Biofuels Alliance and a concerted push for Green Hydrogen, the G20’s ambitions to build a cleaner, greener world is undeniable. This has always been India’s ethos, and through Lifestyles for Sustainable Development (LiFE), the world can benefit from our age-old sustainable traditions.

Further, the Declaration underscores our commitment to climate justice and equity, urging substantial financial and technological support from the Global North. For the first time, there was a recognition of the quantum jump needed in the magnitude of development financing, moving from billions to trillions of dollars. G20 acknowledged that developing countries require $5.9 trillion to fulfil their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by 2030.

Modi and Russian FMGiven the monumental resources required, G20 emphasised the importance of better, larger, and more effective Multilateral Development Banks. Concurrently, India is taking a leading role in UN reforms, especially in the restructuring of principal organs like the UN Security Council, that will ensure a more equitable global order.

Gender equality took centre stage in the Declaration, culminating in the formation of a dedicated Working Group on the Empowerment of Women next year. India’s Women’s Reservation Bill 2023, reserving one-third of India’s Parliament and state legislative assembly seats for women epitomizes our commitment to women-led development.

The New Delhi Declaration embodies a renewed spirit of collaboration across these key priorities, focusing on policy coherence, reliable trade, and ambitious climate action. It is a matter of pride that during our Presidency, G20 achieved 87 outcomes and 118 adopted documents, a marked rise from the past.

During our G20 Presidency, India led deliberations on geopolitical issues and their impact on economic growth and development. Terrorism and the senseless killing of civilians is unacceptable, and we must address it with a policy of zero-tolerance. We must embody humanitarianism over hostility and reiterate that this is not an era of war.

I am delighted that during our Presidency India achieved the extraordinary: it revitalised multilateralism, amplified the voice of the Global South, championed development, and fought for the empowerment of women, everywhere.

As we hand over the G20 Presidency to Brazil, we do so with the conviction that our collective steps for people, planet, peace, and prosperity, will resonate for years to come.

Hope Amidst Hardship: New Life in Gaza During Truce as Families Grapple with Uncertainty

In the early hours of the truce between Israel and Hamas, Israa, named after her mother, was born in a crowded shelter, signaling hope for peace. Israa abu Aaser, cradling her newborn, expressed relief, “Her arrival was an omen of peace—there was quiet and no bombings.” The family, sheltered due to their apartment being destroyed, faced challenges. Bilal abu Aaser crafted a crib from wood scraps for his 3-day-old daughter, acknowledging, “The cold and hunger made her cry; I had to do something.”

Israa’s mother worried about the harsh conditions, stating, “I’m afraid for my daughter in a place like this; I can barely keep her clean and warm.” As the truce’s final day approached, the new parents pondered the uncertain future, hoping for an extension. Their wish was granted temporarily when, after mediation by Qatar and Egypt, Hamas declared a two-day extension.

This extension aimed to facilitate the release of hostages taken by Hamas on Oct. 7 from Israel and Palestinian women and teenagers in Israeli prisons. Approximately a quarter of the 240 hostages were freed in exchange for over 100 Palestinians during the truce. In Gaza, the extension brought relief from the relentless Israeli military campaign, which local health authorities reported to have claimed over 13,300 lives.

During the pause, aid groups intensified humanitarian efforts, and Gaza’s 2.3 million inhabitants reflected on their losses while stocking up on essentials. Many prayed for a longer-lasting ceasefire, hoping it would evolve into a durable peace. Tahani Haboush, assisting her husband undergoing dialysis, emphasized the need for the truce to persist, recalling past conflicts when life was less disrupted.

For Ahmad Mughrabi, the truce offered a temporary reprieve. Fleeing south with his family, an Israeli tank’s shell caused severe injuries, forcing him to endure a painful wait for medical attention. Lack of supplies and relentless bombing delayed treatment, but ultimately, a surgeon at Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, despite challenging circumstances, managed to stabilize his arm with a platinum bar.

A New World Order Emerging?

Respondents from India, China, and Russia expressed optimism about their country’s future, in contrast to Western nations’ pessimism

A global survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), in collaboration with Oxford University’s ‘Europe in a Changing World’ project, exposed significant shifts in attitudes towards the future world order.

The survey included responses from people in 21 different countries, including India and the United States, providing valuable insight into a dynamic geopolitical scene.

A New World Order Emerging (Parag Khanna)
Picture: Parag Khanna

This departure from traditional power alliances is reflected in respondents’ views of the current international system, which is an intriguing aspect of the survey. It shows that countries are increasingly choosing issue-based alliances rather than full allegiance to the United States or China.

A sizable percentage of respondents still favored closer security cooperation with the United States over China, despite the poll’s split results. The majority of respondents from Brazil, India, and South Africa supported the United States. A significant number of respondents from India, Russia, China and Saudi Arabia foresaw European Union’s potential collapse within the next 20 years.

The survey also delved into perceptions about ongoing global conflicts, notably the war in Ukraine. Non-Western countries, including India, had a higher percentage of respondents who predicted Russia would win within the next five years. The report suggested that European countries would view such a development as an existential threat.

Notably, respondents from India, China, and Russia expressed optimism about their country’s future, in contrast to Western nations’ pessimism.

US Thwarted India’s Plan To Assassinate Sikh Separatist Leader

US authorities have thwarted a conspiracy to assassinate a Sikh separatist on American soil and issued a warning to India over concerns that it was involved in the plot, according to multiple people familiar with the case, a media report said.

The target of the plot was Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an American and Canadian citizen who is the general counsel for Sikhs for Justice (SFJ), a US-based group that is part of a movement pushing for an independent Sikh state called “Khalistan”, Financial Times reported.

People familiar with the case, who requested anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the intelligence that prompted the warning, did not say whether the protest to New Delhi led the plotters to abandon their plan, or whether the FBI intervened and foiled a scheme already in motion, Financial Times reported.

The US informed some allies about the plot following the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian Sikh separatist killed in Vancouver in June. In September, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had said there were “credible allegations” linking New Delhi to Nijjar’s fatal shooting.

One person familiar with the situation said the US protest was issued after Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a high-profile state visit to Washington in June. Separate from the diplomatic warning, US federal prosecutors have filed a sealed indictment against at least one alleged perpetrator of the plot in a New York district court, according to people familiar with the case, Financial Times reported.

The US justice department is debating whether to unseal the indictment and make the allegations public or wait until Canada finishes its investigation into Nijjar’s murder.

Further complicating the case, one person charged in the indictment is believed to have left the US, according to people familiar with the proceedings.

The US justice department and FBI declined to comment on the matter. The National Security Council said the US does “not comment on ongoing law enforcement matters or private diplomatic discussions with our partners” but added: “Upholding the safety and security of US citizens is paramount,” Financial Times reported.

Washington shared details of the Pannun case with a wider group of allies after Trudeau went public with details of the Vancouver killing, the combination of which sparked concern among allies about a possible pattern of behaviour. (IANS)

Ambassador Garcetti Describes U.S-India Relationship As “Multiplicative, Not Additive”

The United States Ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, said that the United States views India as a “strategic partner” and “crucial player” in the “global discussion” to help resolve critical issues and usher in lasting peace.

The ambassador highlighted the increasing cooperation between the two countries under various initiatives. Speaking at a session organized by the Observer Research Foundation on the recently held India- US 2+2 Ministerial dialogue and the road ahead, Garcetti said that a large part of the discussions focused on peace.

“I think the joint statements reflect that both countries resolved to promote a resilient, rules- based international order to safeguard free, open, inclusive Indo Pacific through the Quad, and other mechanisms,” he said.

Featured & Cover Ambassador Garcetti Describes U S India Relationship As “Multiplicative Not Additive”“On global issues, the ministers discussed the tragic humanitarian consequences of the conflict in Ukraine and in the Middle East, reiterating their stance with Israel against terrorism, but also seeking to alleviate civilian suffering and adherence to international humanitarian law,” he added.

“The importance of it continues even in the most challenging modern times, that we are faced, with two wars globally, among others, with tensions diplomatically, with economic challenges. That the United States continues to prioritize India and that India continues to prioritize the United States speaks volumes, first and foremost, of the friendship that underpins our relationship, and the importance that we place upon this relationship.”

The ambassador highlighted the increasing cooperation between the two countries, under initiatives like  the Roadmap for U.S.- India Industrial Cooperation, U.S.- India Defense Acceleration Ecosystem, and the U.S. India Initiative on Critical Emerging Technology, or iCET.

“The 2+2 was still centered as something critical, important, and that he wanted to do speaks volumes of this relationship.  Secretary Blinken had engaged with counterparts across the Middle east and in the Indo Pacific before coming here, to make headway on some of the world’s most urgent issues and I think that positioned him for a very good discussion with his Indian friends here. And New Delhi’s inclusion in this ambitious diplomatic agenda is a clear sign not just of India’s importance to us as America, but also to the global conversation, at a moment when we need to continue to have Indian leadership in the world,” the Ambassador pointed out.

“Our countries discussed ways to deepen our science and our technology partnerships to harness technology for the global good instead of technology that harms us and divides us, technology that can connect us and protect us. And these efforts are moving forward at a record-breaking speed under iCET,” he asserted.

Highlighting the recent collaborations between high ranking officials between the two nations, he pointed to how “a little over a week ago, we welcomed Secretary Blinken and Secretary Austin here. It was Secretary Austin’s third time in India, second this year, and Secretary Blinken’s third time this year alone. There are all sorts of metrics I point out to, like for instance, our Secretary of Treasury, Jan Yellen. This was the number one country she went to in the world, outside of the United States, four times. And this is unprecedented, to see the level of engagement of higher-level officials from both sides in each other’s countries.”

The ambassador asked, “How do you build, sustain, establish peace in the world? And how can we have durable peace that the United States and India work on across the world in the face of new and existing threats? And by those threats, I don’t just mean war. A peace that’s threatened by health challenges, by climate challenges, by poverty, by perceived or real divisions between geography, North, South, East, West. The joint statements reflect that both countries resolved to promote a resilient, rules- based international order to safeguard free, open, inclusive Indo Pacific through the Quad, and other mechanisms.”

On US investment in India, Garcetti said he looks forward to welcoming additional visitors around December and January on the iCET themes, which will be a major investment in Indian technology by US private companies.

In conclusion, he said that the US-India 2+2 is deeper than a usual bilateral meeting. “Increasingly, the United States and India really see each other as collaborators in figuring out the global architecture and the global solutions to some of the toughest things that we face, and that work to promote peace, to promote more prosperity, to protect our planet and our people,” the Ambassador noted.

The Strategic Deception of Hamas: Unraveling the Enigma of Yahya Sinwar

In a strategic move five years ago, Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, penned a note urging Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take a “calculated risk” on a ceasefire, as revealed by former National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat. Speaking to an Italian journalist, Sinwar expressed a desire for peace, stating, “I don’t want war anymore. I want a ceasefire,” envisioning a prosperous Gaza akin to Singapore or Dubai.

Recent events, particularly Hamas’s orchestrated assault on Israel on October 7, prompt a reassessment of Sinwar’s words. Israeli officials now admit to a lapse in vigilance, with reduced surveillance along the Gaza border and a shift in focus toward Iran and Syria. Chen Artzi Sror, an Israeli analyst, highlights the perception that Hamas had been deterred, leading to a sense of complacency.

Michael Milshtein, former head of Palestinian research for the military’s intelligence department, notes Sinwar’s success in shaping the Israeli consciousness. “He wanted Israel to believe that Hamas was concentrating on stability in Gaza, promoting civil affairs. He planted this wrong idea in the minds of Israelis.”

As the Israeli military responds to the October 7 attacks, targeting Hamas, Sinwar emerges as the alleged mastermind and a prime assassination target, thought to be hiding in a Gaza tunnel. The conflict has claimed over 11,000 lives, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

The roots of this confrontation trace back decades, with Sinwar, born in a poor neighborhood in Khan Younis, playing a pivotal role in founding Hamas’s military wing during the first Palestinian uprising in the late 1980s. He later led efforts to eliminate Palestinian collaborators with Israel, resulting in a life sentence in 1989. Sinwar’s time in prison provided an opportunity for him to gain deep insight into Hebrew, Israeli society, and the dynamics of the region.

Described as a cold-blooded and magnetic leader, Sinwar faced a health crisis in the early 2000s when a brain tumor threatened his life. Despite attempts to recruit him as an agent after Israel saved him through surgery, Sinwar remained committed to his cause.

Released in a 2011 exchange involving over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, Sinwar quickly resumed his activities within Hamas. By 2017, he assumed leadership for all of Gaza, replacing Ismail Haniyeh.

According to Akram Atallah, a Gaza-based columnist, and Ali Baraka, a senior Hamas official, Sinwar and Hamas strategically misled Israel. They created a misinformation campaign, convincing Israel that their focus was on peace, workers, and economic development for Gaza residents. Baraka revealed that the October 7 attack had been in planning for two years, during which Israel was led to believe that Hamas was primarily governing Gaza.

A 2021 conference titled “The Promise of the End of Days,” where Sinwar delivered the keynote address, shed light on Hamas’s post-conflict plans. The conference discussed the fate of Israeli experts after the defeat, suggesting the retention of Jewish scientists and experts in various fields.

Despite no direct communication between Hamas officials and Israeli authorities, Sinwar collaborated with intermediaries to convey benign intentions. Notably, Hamas worked with the Palestinian Authority to secure Israeli work permits for around 18,000 Gazans, ostensibly for employment in Israel. Israeli security officials claim that some of these workers contributed to the tactical preparation for the October 7 assault.

Following the attacks, Sinwar has maintained silence, refraining from issuing statements or engaging with the press. Meanwhile, a poster in the Tel Aviv defense ministry features Hamas commanders, with lines drawn across the faces of those killed, symbolizing a plan to mark the poster as the conflict progresses.

As the region grapples with the aftermath of the October 7 assault, the intricate dance between Sinwar and the Israeli security establishment continues, marking a pivotal chapter in their decades-long history of monitoring and analyzing each other’s moves.

The Strategic Deception of Hamas: Unraveling the Enigma of Yahya Sinwar

In a strategic move five years ago, Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, penned a note urging Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take a “calculated risk” on a ceasefire, as revealed by former National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat. Speaking to an Italian journalist, Sinwar expressed a desire for peace, stating, “I don’t want war anymore. I want a ceasefire,” envisioning a prosperous Gaza akin to Singapore or Dubai.

Recent events, particularly Hamas’s orchestrated assault on Israel on October 7, prompt a reassessment of Sinwar’s words. Israeli officials now admit to a lapse in vigilance, with reduced surveillance along the Gaza border and a shift in focus toward Iran and Syria. Chen Artzi Sror, an Israeli analyst, highlights the perception that Hamas had been deterred, leading to a sense of complacency.

Michael Milshtein, former head of Palestinian research for the military’s intelligence department, notes Sinwar’s success in shaping the Israeli consciousness. “He wanted Israel to believe that Hamas was concentrating on stability in Gaza, promoting civil affairs. He planted this wrong idea in the minds of Israelis.”

As the Israeli military responds to the October 7 attacks, targeting Hamas, Sinwar emerges as the alleged mastermind and a prime assassination target, thought to be hiding in a Gaza tunnel. The conflict has claimed over 11,000 lives, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

The roots of this confrontation trace back decades, with Sinwar, born in a poor neighborhood in Khan Younis, playing a pivotal role in founding Hamas’s military wing during the first Palestinian uprising in the late 1980s. He later led efforts to eliminate Palestinian collaborators with Israel, resulting in a life sentence in 1989. Sinwar’s time in prison provided an opportunity for him to gain deep insight into Hebrew, Israeli society, and the dynamics of the region.

Described as a cold-blooded and magnetic leader, Sinwar faced a health crisis in the early 2000s when a brain tumor threatened his life. Despite attempts to recruit him as an agent after Israel saved him through surgery, Sinwar remained committed to his cause.

Released in a 2011 exchange involving over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, Sinwar quickly resumed his activities within Hamas. By 2017, he assumed leadership for all of Gaza, replacing Ismail Haniyeh.

According to Akram Atallah, a Gaza-based columnist, and Ali Baraka, a senior Hamas official, Sinwar and Hamas strategically misled Israel. They created a misinformation campaign, convincing Israel that their focus was on peace, workers, and economic development for Gaza residents. Baraka revealed that the October 7 attack had been in planning for two years, during which Israel was led to believe that Hamas was primarily governing Gaza.

A 2021 conference titled “The Promise of the End of Days,” where Sinwar delivered the keynote address, shed light on Hamas’s post-conflict plans. The conference discussed the fate of Israeli experts after the defeat, suggesting the retention of Jewish scientists and experts in various fields.

Despite no direct communication between Hamas officials and Israeli authorities, Sinwar collaborated with intermediaries to convey benign intentions. Notably, Hamas worked with the Palestinian Authority to secure Israeli work permits for around 18,000 Gazans, ostensibly for employment in Israel. Israeli security officials claim that some of these workers contributed to the tactical preparation for the October 7 assault.

Following the attacks, Sinwar has maintained silence, refraining from issuing statements or engaging with the press. Meanwhile, a poster in the Tel Aviv defense ministry features Hamas commanders, with lines drawn across the faces of those killed, symbolizing a plan to mark the poster as the conflict progresses.

As the region grapples with the aftermath of the October 7 assault, the intricate dance between Sinwar and the Israeli security establishment continues, marking a pivotal chapter in their decades-long history of monitoring and analyzing each other’s moves.

Will Israel Pay Heed To UNSC Resolution On Gaza?

Breaking a deadlock, the UN Security Council adopted a Malta-drafted resolution urging humanitarian pauses and corridors in Gaza. The 15-nation Council adopted a resolution with 12 votes in favour and abstentions from Russia, the UK, and the US.

The UNSC resolution, the fifth attempt on the Israel-Hamas war, calls for the immediate release of all hostages held by Hamas and for urgent and extended humanitarian corridors throughout the enclave to save and protect civilian lives. The affirmative vote came after four unsuccessful efforts to take action last month.

HIGHLIGHTS

  • The UN Security Council succeeds in finding unity, adopting resolution 2712 on the Israel-Palestine crisis that began on 7 October, with 12 members voting in favour, none against and three abstentions (Russia, United Kingdom, United States), calling for “urgent and extended humanitarian pauses and corridors” in Gaza for “a sufficient number of days” to allow full, rapid, safe and unhindered access for UN agencies and partners
  • The Council “calls for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages held by Hamas and other groups, especially children, as well as ensuring immediate humanitarian access”, by the terms of the resolution
  • The Council, by additional provisions in the text, calls on all parties to refrain from depriving the civilian population in Gaza of basic services and aid indispensable to their survival, consistent with international humanitarian law
  • The resolution does not condemn the Hamas attacks of 7 October which began the current wave of violence and battle for control of Gaza
  • The Council rejected an amendment proposed by Russia, with five votes in favour, one against and nine abstentions
  • “Our vote today translates into real human lives,” said the ambassador of Malta, penholder of the newly adopted resolution
  • Ambassadors from the UK and US separately regretted to note that the draft failed to condemn Hamas and voiced support for civilian protection and rapid aid delivery measures
  • Russia’s ambassador said a real ceasefire is needed and “the Council will need to make a decision on further steps”, including what observers to send to the conflict area and which UN contingent will be involved
  • “This madness must be brought to an end,” said Palestine’s Permanent Observer to the UN, adding that: “It is time for peace”
  • Israel’s Ambassador said the crisis could be brought to an immediate end if all Israeli hostages are returned unscathed and Hamas laid down their arms and turned themselves in

Reasons for abstention

US ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield noted the resolution’s unique mention of Hamas but highlighted the lack of the Hamas condemnation.

Will Israel Pay Heed To UNSC Resolution On Gaza (NDTV)
Picture: TheUNN

UK Ambassador Woodward regretted the resolution’s failure to explicitly condemn Hamas, leading to a UK abstention.

Russian Ambassador Nebenzia stated Moscow’s abstention was in response to regional calls for humanitarian action, emphasising the need for an immediate ceasefire as a precondition for effective humanitarian measures.

Earlier attempts

The adoption of the resolution came after four failed attempts last month in the Council to take action on allowing humanitarian access in the Israel-Hamas conflict that broke out after the militant group attacked Israel on October 7.

Earlier, Russia and China vetoed a US resolution affirming the right to self-defence against terrorist threats. A Brazilian text proposing humanitarian pauses was vetoed by the US.

Resolution ‘detached from reality’: Israel

 Israel’s Deputy Permanent Representative, Brett Jonathan Miller, was the last to speak at the meeting.

He said the resolution was “detached from the reality on the ground” and “falls on deaf ears when it comes to Hamas and other terrorist organizations”.

He noted that the Council has met nearly 10 times in the six weeks since Hamas’s “barbaric invasion” of Israel, which it still has not condemned as the world’s premier body for peace and security.

“The resolution focuses solely on the humanitarian situation in Gaza. It makes no mention of what led up to this moment,” he said. “The resolution makes it seem as if what we are witnessing in Gaza happened of its own accord.”

He added that Israel’s top priority is to bring the hostages home, “and seeing as Security Council resolutions hold no sway with terrorists, Israel will continue to do whatever it takes to accomplish this goal.”

Mr. Miller said the war would end immediately “should Hamas choose to lay down their arms, turn themselves in and handover the hostages unscathed”.

Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lior Haiat insists that extended humanitarian pauses are unfeasible as long as Hamas holds 239 hostages, calling on the UN Security Council to condemn Hamas.

Simultaneously, Israel resumed its military operation at Gaza’s Al-Shifa hospital, claiming a Hamas command center located below. The US and Israel allege tunnels exist, which Hamas and hospital directors deny.

Israeli forces also drop leaflets warning Palestinians to evacuate southern Gaza, hinting at a potential expansion of operations.

With The Security Council ‘Crumbling’, India Says ‘Naysayers’ Should Be Stopped From Blocking UN Reforms

A 12-member group of countries known as Uniting for Consensus, which is led by Italy and has Pakistan as a leading member, has used procedural tactics to prevent the adoption of a negotiating text because they oppose expanding the permanent membership of the Council, a demand of the majority of UN’s 193 members.

With the UN Security Council “crumbling under the weight of 21st-century geopolitical realities”, India has said that “naysayers” should be stopped from blocking its reform. The negotiations for reforming the Council that was started 14 years ago should be made to deliver concrete outcomes within a fixed time frame, Pratik Mathur, a counsellor at India’s Mission, said on Tuesday at a meeting on revitalising the 193-member General Assembly.

“Naysayers cannot be allowed to hold the intergovernmental negotiations (IGN) process hostage in perpetuity”, he said referring to the machinery set up by the Assembly for Council reform. He said that the reform negotiations should adopt a text-based process and not be blocked by procedural tactics.

The IGN is stalled because it has been prevented from adopting a negotiating text that would form the basis of discussions to progress by setting a firm agenda and recording the points of convergence and divergence that need to be worked on.

A 12-member group of countries known as Uniting for Consensus, which is led by Italy and has Pakistan as a leading member, has used procedural tactics to prevent the adoption of a negotiating text because they oppose expanding the permanent membership of the Council, a demand of the majority of UN’s 193 members.

With The Security Council ‘Crumbling’ India Says ‘Naysayers’ Should Be Stopped From Blocking UN Reforms Indian Defence Resrach Wing)
Picture: Indian Defence Resrach Wing

Mathur said that there was “widespread recognition that the current architecture is anachronistic, and indeed ineffective” and in a reference to the exclusion of Africa and Latin America from permanent membership he said that it was “deeply unfair” as it denied “entire continents and regions of voice in a forum that deliberates their future”.

“We need an all-encompassing comprehensive reform process, which includes expansion of categories, both permanent as well as non-permanent seats in the Security Council”, he said.

The basic architecture of the Council is stuck in the post-World War II scenario when the five victors assumed permanent membership and veto powers that came with it for themselves and the UN’s membership was 51 while most of the world was under the colonial yoke of two permanent members.

The Council’s veto and the relationship between the Assembly and the Council should also be considered against “the backdrop of the prevailing global scenario”, he said.

The Council is ineffective in the two major contemporary conflicts, Ukraine and Gaza, unable to even demand a cease-fire because of the veto powers of the permanent members.

The Council is “crumbling” and it “has turned some of the tides towards the General Assembly, giving us more face time and traction, where the voice of Global South is a formidable force, unlike what is the case in the Security Council”, Mathur said.

Even though the Assembly has no enforcement powers, took steps to make the permanent members of the Council morally answerable for the exercise of veto powers.

Whenever a permanent member vetoes resolutions at the Council, it now has to appear before the Assembly and explain its action while also facing criticism from other UN members.

The Assembly has also passed resolutions echoing the sentiments of the vetoed Council resolutions by large majorities.  (Read more at: https://www.southasiamonitor.org/un-watch/security-council-crumbling-india-says-naysayers-should-be-stopped-blocking-un-reform)

Secretary Janet Yellen Outlines Biden Administration’s Economic Strategy Toward The Indo-Pacific Region

The Asia Society Policy Institute(ASPI) hosted Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen to deliver an address outlining the Biden administration’s economic strategy toward the Indo-Pacific this afternoon on Thursday, November 2.

Below is the transcript of the opening speech delivered by Wendy Cutler, Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, who introduced Secretary Yellen, as well as quotes from a brief Q&A session between Ms. Cutler and on-site reporters directly after the event. Additionally, two photos from the event are included below, and can be used with credit to Asia Society/Leigh Vogel.

TRANSCRIPT: Wendy Cutler’s Opening Speech

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today – in person and online. I’m Wendy Cutler, Vice President at the Asia Society Policy Institute and I run our D.C. office. Our institute is part of the broader Asia Society, and we focus on tackling policy challenges in the Indo-Pacific region and advancing solutions to these problems. We work with policy makers in both the United States and throughout Asia to promote fresh thinking on critical and emerging matters.

It is in this spirit that we are so delighted to be able to welcome Janet Yellen, the U.S. Secretary of Treasury, to our stage.

Secretary Yellen is a world-renowned economist, a widely-cited academic, a consummate public servant, an inspirational leader, and I also hear she’s great to work for and work with. As the only person in history to head the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve Board and the Council of Economic Advisors, she has been a pioneer in her professional accomplishments and pursuits, and she heads the department at a time when Treasury’s role could not be more important with respect to domestic and international challenges.

Today, we are fortunate that she will share her insights and vision on the Biden administration’s economic strategy in the Indo-Pacific region, the fastest-growing and most dynamic region in the world.

Secretary Janet Yellen Outlines Biden Administration’s Economic Strategy Toward The Indo Pacific RegionThe Treasury Department in particular has played a key role in developing and implementing the Biden administration’s economic agenda in this vital region. She and her colleagues have clearly heard the voices in the region that have pressed the U.S. to augment our security presence with a robust economic agenda.

Under her leadership and in close collaboration with other agencies, we have witnessed stepped up engagement on the economic front through bilateral initiatives, with allies and partners, through existing international and regional organizations like the G20 and APEC, as well as through new groupings like the Quad and IPEF.

The Secretary’s recent visit to China has helped stabilize our bilateral relationship and has re-opened important channels of communication.

But importantly, China has not been her sole focus. Her recent travels have taken her all over the region, including India, where I think she’s made four trips in the past year, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan and Korea. These visits have underscored the administration’s commitment to promoting an affirmative economic agenda in the region, and not just one that is viewed through the prism of China.

This month’s going to be a very busy month for U.S.-Indo Pacific economic engagement with President Biden hosting APEC, with expected announcements to be announced under IPEF, and through a possible Biden and Xi summit that looks more likely every day.

But our regional economic engagement must not stop there. It will be important to build on these initiatives, and by doing so, we will leave no doubt in the minds of our regional allies and partners that the U.S. will continue to be an important and reliable financial trade, investment and supply chain partner, as we promote an economic security agenda that takes their concerns and interests into account.

Enough from me. I am delighted to turn the podium over to Secretary Yellen. Please join me in giving her a warm welcome.

Wendy Cutler’s Post-Speech Analysis

The Asia Society Policy Institute was honored to host U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for a major speech today describing the Biden administration’s economic objectives, engagements, and initiatives in the Indo-Pacific region.

While a number of Cabinet officials have discussed U.S.-China relations, today’s speech refreshingly and crucially broadened the focus to the entire Indo-Pacific region. Her remarks explained how U.S. interests in the broader region are served by cultivating and building an affirmative economic agenda with countries, such as India and Vietnam, and by reinforcing economic ties with stalwart allies, such as Japan and South Korea.

I was pleased that the speech highlighted the mutual benefits of increasing trade and investment between the United States and its Indo-Pacific partners.

Secretary Yellen pointed to the rapid growth in trade and investment flows between the United States and the Indo-Pacific, which is a promising but not entirely unexpected development in light of the dynamism in the region. She did not signal, however, an interest pursuing market opening agreements, which is unfortunate given that these deals are being concluded between others without us.

Secretary Yellen provided several promising examples of how the administration is engaging in the region through bilateral initiatives with Vietnam and India, for example, and multilaterally through the G20, APEC, IPEF, the QUAD, and other channels.

If there was anything left unaddressed that the audience was eager to hear, it was probably the scarcity of details on next steps both during the APEC Leaders week, but also beyond then. In light of the upcoming APEC Summit in San Francisco this month, I had hoped to hear a general preview of the anticipated “deliverables” to be announced there, both with respect to APEC and IPEF. But, I’m sure we will be hearing more on this in the weeks ahead.

Finally, while the Secretary highlighted US-Vietnam economic ties, it would have been welcome to learn more about our ongoing and new intiaitives with other countries in Southeast Asia, an extremely innovative and fast growing sub-region of the broader Indo-Pacific.

On her assessment of Yellen’s speech:

Given my background, I couldn’t help but applaud the emphasis she put on bolstering trade and investment in the region and her making the case for why trade is important. You don’t hear that a lot in Washington these days, and I thought she was pretty forthcoming. She also very skillfully focused on the issues of tomorrow, including climate and supply chains. She’s a trooper — when you look at her travels over the past year or so, she’s probably been to Asia more than I have.

On Yellen’s engagement with the Chinese in setting up new consultation groups:

Those groups met for the first time this past week. My understanding was it was virtual and more of a discussion. I think these discussions on these Treasury-led issues are increasingly important, particularly given what’s going on in the global economy. But I would give this time, because maybe we will see modest deliverables coming out of not only these working groups but also out of the working groups that the Commerce Department is leading as well.

On how the message of Yellen’s speech might impact the state of US-China relations:

I think we are seeing a stabilization of the relationship. Remember, after her visit, we saw Secretary Raimondo and other high-level and working-level engagements, and obviously, we’re all anticipating the summit meeting between President Biden and Xi. So I think we’re in a different phase of US-China relations.

But our relations with China are strained. It took a while for them to get to this low and you’re not going to turn them around overnight. So in my view, we should have low expectations and really look to modest steps which over time could help build trust and maybe deliver some outcomes that are mutually beneficial.

On the potential Biden-Xi summit:

We should not have high expectations of major announcements coming out of this meeting. I don’t think there’ll be any breakthroughs. But as Secretary Yellen said, I think this continued engagement at all levels is extremely important. Even if we don’t see eye to eye on many issues, sitting down and talking is important not only to deepen our understanding of each other’s positions, but also hopefully to avert any mishaps that can happen and lead to an escalation in tensions between our two countries.

On IPEF negotiations:

My understanding is that there will be announcements made on specific outcomes and specific pillars in IPEF, and it’s quite possible that the pillars led by the Commerce Department will announce substantial conclusion. They’ve already concluded the supply chain pillar. The two other pillars might also be substantially concluded.

The trade pillar is facing some challenges. I’m not surprised by that. Trade negotiations take a long time, even when you’re offering market access. When you’re not offering market access, the onus is more on the demander – in this case, the United States — to show these other countries that there are benefits. But I do expect that coming out of the trade pillar, we’ll see certain chapters of the trade pillar substantially concluded, such as good regulatory practices or trade facilitation or inclusivity.

As I see it, there are currently three sticking points in the trade pillar: labor, environment and digital. On labor and the environment, my understanding is the U.S. is making robust requests to other countries and many are just not prepared at this juncture to agree. They just they need more time. With respect to digital, we may see some aspects of digital announced – for example, the aspects dealing with what I would call the trade facilitation aspects of digital, like promoting e-invoices, e-signatures, things like that. These are important frankly, and they’re important for businesses in the region, so I wouldn’t discount them. Obviously, there’s a lot of concern in our business community about the US position on data flows, source codes and localization. The administration needs more time to work those issues out.

On what up-and-coming topics she feels will emerge in the U.S. economic policy as pertaining to China:

I don’t discount that we may announce new restrictions through our export control policy or through our entity list in the coming months. There are some rumors of additional things that are being worked on. But from my perspective, I think the issue of excess capacity that particularly now we’re seeing in electric vehicles is an issue that the US, Europe, Japan, Korea and other countries are going to need to deal with, because the Chinese companies that are highly subsidized are changing the international landscape.

China is going to be the largest exporter of vehicles this year. This has happened very quickly. Companies are subsidized. Europe’s looking at restrictions through its countervailing duty law. In the US, we already have high tariffs and we also have restrictions under the IRA.

I was just in Japan and had some discussions on where Japan is headed in this area, and I’ve had similar discussions with Korea, so I think this is an area that we may be hearing a lot more about. I spent a lot of my career negotiating auto market access with respect to Japan and Korea, and even with our allies, those issues were so sensitive and so difficult to negotiate. So I think with respect to China, this is going to be an issue of growing concern.

Need To Put An End To India-Canada Friction

Justifiably, India and Sri Lanka are unhappy that the Canadian government is giving the freedom to operate to separatist movements in Canada and is keeping its eyes and ears closed to the violent objectives of the separatists.

It is evident that a large majority of the people living in India and Canada are highly concerned about the ongoing diplomatic friction between India and Canada and want the traditionally good relationship between both countries to be restored as early as possible.

While it serves no purpose at this stage to discuss who is responsible for developing such friction between these two democratic countries, many people in India and Canada think that Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau may have acted and spoken somewhat carelessly, attributing the death of a Sikh political leader in Canada to the machination of the Indian government. He has said this without adequate proof and that too in Canadian parliament. This statement has naturally irked India, as it would spoil the reputation of the country around the world.

 After this, one event followed another with Trudeau staying firm in his views. In the process, he has done enormous damage to the relationship with  India and the Indian government too seems to have overreacted to the accusation.

The fact that many people in Canada too are unhappy about the state of affairs became evident when Canada’s opposition leader said that he would work to restore a “professional relationship” with India if his party were to come to office in the next elections in Canada.  The question now is how to restore the relations between both countries to the traditional level.

Migrant population with twin loyalties

During the last several decades, Canada has been welcoming the migrant population liberally and has been providing citizenship to migrants from all over the world, probably without adequate checks and control from the point of view of national security.  In the process, Canada has a mixed population from various countries who have become citizens and belong to different religions including Christians, and Muslims. Sikhs, Hindus,  Buddhists and so on. Further, it appears that some of these migrant-turned-citizens have twin loyalties in their mindset to Canada as well as the country from which they have migrated.

Need To Put An End To India Canada Friction (The Guardian)
Picture: The Guardian

With such a large influx of migrants over the years and with an almost unchecked level of freedom given to the people in Canada, some of the migrants have been tempted to organise movements from Canadian soil to “fight “ for a separate state for a particular group in their original country. An immediate example is the LTTE movement freely operating in Canada to split Sri Lanka and the Khalistan movement freely operating in Canada to split India.

Justifiably, India and Sri Lanka are unhappy that the Canadian government is giving the freedom to operate to separatist movements in Canada and is keeping its eyes and ears closed to the violent objectives of the separatists. Probably, a few other countries too are unhappy with Canada for allowing separatist movements on its soil threatening the territorial integrity of those countries.

In the process of massive migration of people from different countries with varied traditional and cultural standards and value systems, the demographic structure of Canada is constantly changing with the migrant population getting considerable space in the Canadian parliament and government.  In the process, the political and electoral power of such migrants has also become strong, influencing Canadian politics.

Short-sighted policies

Probably, Trudeau feels that keeping the migrant Sikh population supporting the Khalistan movement in good humour would help him politically and hence made such a statement against India.  The twin loyalties of a section of the Canadian population became evident when the recent visit of Trudeau to a mosque in Canada was reportedly objected to by a section of Muslims living in Canada.

Obviously, Trudeau cannot afford now to backtrack since it would amount to eating his own words. However, there is concern in Canada that the country can suffer due to such short-sighted policies as the large student population from India going for higher education to Canada may start looking elsewhere.  There could be a loss of business opportunities for Canada just as it is for India too

What should be done now is that the spokespersons from both countries should remain silent for some time so that the dust settles down and saner voices can be heard from both countries.

(The author is a commentator on current affairs and a Trustee, NGO Nandini Voice for the Deprived, Chennai. Views are personal. He can be contacted at nsvenkatchennai@gmail.com)

Read more at: https://www.southasiamonitor.org/perspective/need-put-end-india-canada-friction

Hillary Clinton Expresses Profound Appreciation For The Invaluable Contributions Of ITServe Alliance

Networking, learning and sharing of knowledge, great and highly acclaimed speakers, insightful workshops, collaborating with one another, strengthening bonds, cultural and fun events, awards ceremony, showcasing of business booths and products, and delicious and multi-ethnic cuisine were the highlights of the ITServe Alliance’s flagship Synergy 2023 held from October 26th to 27th, 2023 at the popular Harrahs Resort in Atlantic City, NJ. Attended by over 2,200 members of ITServe Alliance, who are small and medium size companies of Information Technology, the annual event was a way of celebrating ITServe Members’ achievements and accomplishments.

In his address to the membership, Vinay K. Mahajan, National President of ITServe Alliance highlighted how under his able leadership, ITServe has grown and strengthened in its mission in protecting members interest, enhancing membership benefits, empowering local employment, empowering local community through various CSR programs including STEM education, and empowering ecosystem of innovation and thus maintaining the leadership of US in Technology.

“Travelling to all the 21 Chapters across the United States in 8 months after I assumed office, I was instrumental in achieving membership to newer heights with more than 700+ new members added in 2023. Two new Chapters were launched. IT Serve Alliance is led by highly talented individuals, phenomenally successful entrepreneurs, and Innovators who are enthusiastic about giving back to the community.” He strengthened STEM Education program by adding STEM Training and Internship programs and enhancing STEM scholarships program.”

Venu Sangani, Director of Synergy 2023, who led a dedicated and visionary team organizing this historic event said, “Synergy 2023 is our landmark flagship gathering, you have opportunities for growth and learning, forging a path with connections, with featuring seven keynote sessions from seven different domain panels, panel discussions, interactive breakout sessions. The essence of Synergy lies not only knowledge exchanges but inspiring one another. Let the success stories of fellow entrepreneurs ignite your ambitions.”

Vinodbabu Uppu, Governing Board Chair of ITServe said, “Synergy 2023 is the only one-of-a-kind conference delivering innovative strategies, unique insights, and proven tactics for success, exclusively for IT service companies and individuals. Synergy 2023 focused on developing strategic relationships with our partner organizations, sponsors, and supporters to work for a better technology environment by building greater understanding.”

Venu Sangani, Director of Synergy 2023, who led a dedicated and visionary team in organizing this historic event said, “Synergy 2023 is our landmark flagship gathering, with opportunities for growth and learning, forging a path with connections, featuring seven keynote sessions from seven different domain panels, panel discussions, and interactive breakout sessions. The essence of Synergy lies not only in knowledge exchanges but inspiring one another. Let the success stories of fellow entrepreneurs ignite your ambitions.”

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Chief Guest at ITServe Alliance’s Synergy 2023, shared with the audience about her life and aspirations, expressed appreciation for the contributions of the high skilled immigrant community and urged them to play an active role in the society. Ms. Clinton, the 67th Secretary of State of the United States has dedicated over four decades of her life in public service, serving as an advocate, attorney, First Lady, and US Senator.

Secretary Clinton praised the contributions and accomplishments of the high-skilled immigrants to this country. She said, “I’m so proud of the many accomplishments of the ITServe member companies in the United States. I really want to thank you and commend you for the extraordinary contributions to the nation.  I was so impressed by the many contributions you’ve made, in addition to building your businesses and providing employment for people.”

Secretary Clinton stressed the importance of Health Insurance program particularly for the children. When it comes to US immigration issues, she advocated for reforming our immigration system to attract the most talented individuals from around the globe. This, in turn, would drive innovation and foster growth in our nation. Additionally, she advocated for a bipartisan approach to address this issue.

ITServe members were filled with immense pride as they welcomed distinguished guests to their Synergy events. In 2021, they were honored to host President George W. Bush in Dallas, followed by President Bill Clinton and a former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley in 2022 in Orlando. The pinnacle of their achievements came in 2023, as they were graced by the presence of Secretary Ms. Clinton at Synergy in Atlantic City.

These momentous occasions were a testament to the organization’s commitment to excellence and its ability to attract influential figures to its gatherings. These remarkable leaders graced the Synergy events with their presence, making each gathering a memorable and prestigious occasion for ITServe and its members.

Founded in 2010, ITServe Alliance is the largest association of Information Technology Services organizations functioning across the United States. Established to be the voice of all prestigious Information Technology companies functioning with similar interests across the United States, ITServe Alliance has evolved as a resourceful and respected platform to collaborate and initiate measures in the direction of protecting common interests and ensuring collective success. ITServe Alliance now has 21 Chapters in several states across the United States, bringing the Synergy Conference to every part of this innovation country. For more information, please visit: www.itserve.org

How the Confidence in the UN Eroded Globally

Since 1947, when the UN General Assembly endorsed the partitioning of Palestine into Jewish and Arab states, the Middle East has been a focal point of UN deliberations. In the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the UN has followed a consistent pattern: the US employs its veto to thwart criticism of Israel at the Security Council, while Arab states rally developing nations to support the Palestinians. Recent discussions at the UN after Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel have adhered to this familiar script. The US vetoed a Security Council resolution urging a cease-fire in Gaza, but a General Assembly resolution for a “humanitarian truce” passed overwhelmingly in late October.

However, diplomats at UN offices in New York and Geneva express a sense that this crisis is distinct and could have repercussions beyond Israel and Gaza, impacting the UN’s integrity. Their concerns stem not only from the brutality of Hamas, the mounting casualties in Gaza, and the potential for regional escalation but also from a broader loss of confidence in the UN. Doubts about the effectiveness of an institution designed for twentieth-century power dynamics to address postwar challenges are not new. In the past year, the UN has appeared particularly adrift, failing to respond effectively to crises in Sudan, Nagorno-Karabakh, and the coup in Niger. Tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine have further hindered UN discussions on unrelated issues in Africa and the Middle East. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of a “great fracture” in the global governance system at the annual General Assembly meeting in September.

The conflict between Israel and Hamas could exacerbate the erosion of the UN’s credibility in crisis response. This situation prompts a crucial reckoning for national governments and UN officials on how the UN can contribute to peace and security in a world where common ground among major powers is shrinking. The post-Cold War era witnessed calls for the UN to address conflicts as a matter of routine, but now the institution seems to be confronting its geopolitical limitations.

A revamped UN, suitable for the contemporary age, must adjust its ambitions. On security matters, the organization should prioritize a limited set of key issues and delegate crisis management responsibilities when possible. Some international problems will still necessitate the coordination uniquely possible at the UN. Even when diplomatic efforts among nations falter, the institution remains a platform where adversaries can negotiate differences and identify opportunities for collaboration. Rather than allowing ongoing conflicts to fracture the UN, both national governments and UN officials must collaborate to preserve its essential functions.

STARTING TO SPIRAL

The crisis of confidence in the UN has been escalating since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Initially, diplomats feared that tensions among major powers would paralyze the UN. However, despite intense debates over the war in Ukraine, Russia, the US, and European allies continued to coordinate on other matters. The Security Council imposed new sanctions on criminal gangs in Haiti and agreed on a mandate for the UN to collaborate with the Taliban government in Kabul to provide aid to suffering Afghans. Both Russia and the West demonstrated a willingness to use the UN for residual cooperation.

This delicate balance began to unravel in the spring. Russia increasingly acted as a spoiler at the UN, withdrawing UN peacekeepers from Mali and vetoing the renewal of a mandate for aid agencies in rebel-held parts of Syria. Moscow also exited the Black Sea Grain Initiative, disrupting a deal brokered by the UN and Turkey in 2022. The war in the Middle East highlighted this more aggressive approach to UN diplomacy. While China maintained a relatively neutral stance, Russia capitalized on the situation, criticizing the US for vetoing a resolution on humanitarian aid to Gaza and implying American complicity in fueling the conflict.

The US’s unwavering support for Israel has compounded diplomatic challenges, particularly in the General Assembly. The coalition of states supporting Ukraine fractured over Gaza, leading to a resolution for a “humanitarian truce” passing with a divided vote. The US voted against the resolution, citing its failure to condemn Hamas, causing a ripple effect. Diplomats from developing countries hinted at rejecting future UN resolutions supporting Ukraine due to perceived Western disregard for Palestinian concerns.

This recent division may undermine the US’s efforts to improve relations with the global South at the UN. The Biden administration’s push for Security Council reforms and promises to collaborate with financial institutions for developing countries now faces headwinds, as its stance on Israel and Gaza risks undoing progress made with these nations before the current conflict.

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have intensified diplomatic tensions among UN member states and placed significant strain on UN Secretary-General Guterres and the organization’s conflict-management system. The absence of unified support from the Security Council has hindered the UN’s ability to effectively manage conflicts, with trouble spots like Sudan, Mali, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo experiencing challenges in cooperation and peacekeeping efforts.

 

Governments and warring parties in these regions have resisted collaboration with UN mediators, and demands for the withdrawal of UN peacekeepers have been made without facing substantial consequences. Despite maintaining a humanitarian presence in places like Afghanistan, the UN is grappling with funding shortfalls due to reduced aid budgets from Western donors allocating significant resources to military and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine.

Guterres has become entangled in diplomatic disputes, particularly concerning events in the Middle East. His remarks on Hamas’s attack on Israel led to calls for his resignation from Israel, affecting cooperation with UN humanitarian officials. The incident underscores the vulnerability of UN aid operations to political discord, with tragic consequences on the ground, including the death of nearly 100 UN employees in Gaza.

The future of the UN’s presence in the Middle East hinges on the duration and extent of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. In a post-conflict scenario, the UN may play a significant role in recovery efforts or even be tasked with administering Gaza after the removal of Hamas. However, an extended and broader regional war could jeopardize the UN’s longstanding peacekeeping missions in southern Lebanon and the Golan Heights.

Regardless of the outcomes in the Middle East and Ukraine, ongoing trends at the UN signal future challenges. Diplomatic divisions and operational vulnerabilities are likely to persist or worsen as global rifts deepen. While the UN may not return to its Cold War-era prominence, it can adapt to a diminished role. Guterres’s “New Agenda for Peace” emphasizes a reduced focus on peacekeeping missions and encourages member states to address new security threats.

The UN could shift from deploying its own forces to supporting other crisis managers, including regional organizations and individual countries. This approach is already being tested, such as Kenya leading a multinational security assistance mission in Haiti. Despite current disagreements, the Security Council could find a new equilibrium, serving as a venue for resolving conflicts among major powers and addressing shared interests in cooperation.

Even with the Security Council facing challenges, the wider UN system retains a substantial role in international conflict management. UN relief agencies possess unique capacities to mitigate violence’s effects, and efforts are underway to explore conflict prevention methods independent of Security Council oversight, such as utilizing World Bank funds to support basic services in vulnerable states. In a period of geopolitical tension, the UN may not lead in resolving major crises, but it can contribute significantly to protecting vulnerable populations.

Secretary Of State Hillary Clinton Expresses Profound Appreciation For The Invaluable Contributions Of ITServe Alliance

Networking, learning and sharing of knowledge, great and highly acclaimed speakers, insightful workshops, collaborating with one another, strengthening bonds, cultural and fun events, awards ceremony, showcasing of business booths and products, and delicious and multi-ethnic cuisine were the highlights of the ITServe Alliance’s flagship Synergy 2023 held from October 26th to 27th, 2023 at the popular Harrahs Resort in Atlantic City, NJ. Attended by over 2,200 members of ITServe Alliance, who are small and medium size companies of Information Technology, the annual event was a way of celebrating ITServe Members’ achievements and accomplishments.

In his address to the membership, Vinay K. Mahajan, National President of ITServe Alliance highlighted how under his able leadership, ITServe has grown and strengthened in its mission in protecting members’ interest, enhancing membership benefits, empowering local employment, empowering local community through various CSR programs including STEM education, and empowering the ecosystem of innovation and thus maintaining the leadership of US in Technology.

“Travelling to all the 21 Chapters across the United States in 8 months after I assumed office, I was instrumental in achieving membership to newer heights with more than 700+ new members added in 2023. Two new Chapters were launched. IT Serve Alliance is led by highly talented individuals, phenomenally successful entrepreneurs, and Innovators who are enthusiastic about giving back to the community.” He strengthened STEM Education program by adding STEM Training and Internship programs and enhancing STEM scholarships program.”

Venu Sangani, Director of Synergy 2023, who led a dedicated and visionary team organizing this historic event said, “Synergy 2023 is our landmark flagship gathering, you have opportunities for growth and learning, forging a path with connections, with featuring seven keynote sessions from seven different domain panels, panel discussions, interactive breakout sessions. The essence of Synergy lies not only knowledge exchanges but inspiring one another. Let the success stories of fellow entrepreneurs ignite your ambitions.”

Vinodbabu Uppu, Governing Board Chair of ITServe said, “Synergy 2023 is the only one-of-a-kind conference delivering innovative strategies, unique insights, and proven tactics for success, exclusively for IT service companies and individuals. Synergy 2023 focused on developing strategic relationships with our partner organizations, sponsors, and supporters to work for a better technology environment by building greater understanding.”

Venu Sangani, Director of Synergy 2023, who led a dedicated and visionary team in organizing this historic event said, “Synergy 2023 is our landmark flagship gathering, with opportunities for growth and learning, forging a path with connections, featuring seven keynote sessions from seven different domain panels, panel discussions, and interactive breakout sessions. The essence of Synergy lies not only in knowledge exchanges but inspiring one another. Let the success stories of fellow entrepreneurs ignite your ambitions.”

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Chief Guest at ITServe Alliance’s Synergy 2023, shared with the audience about her life and aspirations, expressed appreciation for the contributions of the high skilled immigrant community and urged them to play an active role in the society. Ms. Clinton, the 67th Secretary of State of the United States has dedicated over four decades of her life in public service, serving as an advocate, attorney, First Lady, and US Senator.

Secretary Clinton praised the contributions and accomplishments of the high-skilled immigrants to this country. She said, “I’m so proud of the many accomplishments of the ITServe member companies in the United States. I really want to thank you and commend you for the extraordinary contributions to the nation.  I was so impressed by the many contributions you’ve made, in addition to building your businesses and providing employment for people.

Secretary Clinton stressed the importance of Health Insurance program particularly for the children. When it comes to US immigration issues, she advocated for reforming our immigration system to attract the most talented individuals from around the globe. This, in turn, would drive innovation and foster growth in our nation. Additionally, she advocated for a bipartisan approach to address this issue.

ITServe members were filled with immense pride as they welcomed distinguished guests to their Synergy events. In 2021, they were honored to host President George W. Bush in Dallas, followed by President Bill Clinton and a former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley in 2022 in Orlando. The pinnacle of their achievements came in 2023, as they were graced by the presence of Secretary Ms. Clinton at Synergy in Atlantic City.

These momentous occasions were a testament to the organization’s commitment to excellence and its ability to attract influential figures to its gatherings. These remarkable leaders graced the Synergy events with their presence, making each gathering a memorable and prestigious occasion for ITServe and its members.

Founded in 2010, ITServe Alliance is the largest association of Information Technology Services organizations functioning across the United States. Established to be the voice of all prestigious Information Technology companies functioning with similar interests across the United States, ITServe Alliance has evolved as a resourceful and respected platform to collaborate and initiate measures in the direction of protecting common interests and ensuring collective success. ITServe Alliance now has 21 Chapters in several states across the United States, bringing the Synergy Conference to every part of this innovation country. For more information, please visit: www.itserve.org

The Qatar-India Diplomatic Conundrum: What’s India’s Next Move?

Should Bharat reconsider landing rights for Qatar Airways? A Test of Strategic Resolve

The Qatar-India Diplomatic Conundrum: What's India's Next Move?

By: Amb. Pradeep Kapur & Dr. Joseph M. Chalil

The recent sentencing of eight Indian Navy veterans, including the highly respected Cmdr. Purnendu Tiwari (Retd), by a Qatari court on espionage charges, is a moment of deep introspection for India’s foreign policy machinery. With bilateral ties between Qatar and India already hanging in the balance, this event marks a significant, potentially disruptive moment in their shared history.

Cmdr. Tiwari, a previous recipient of the Pravasi Bharatiya Samman, has been honored by India for his remarkable contributions to bilateral ties with Qatar. The naval officers were in Kotász to provide training to the Qataris. They are respected and enabled officers, and they are not terrorists. Thus, the sentencing of eight Indian naval officers to death on charges of spying for Israel poses severe questions about trust, respect, and the future trajectory of Indo-Qatari relations.

Qatar and Bharat used to enjoy good bilateral relations. Of late, these relations have come under severe stress as Qatar’s policies have become more closely aligned with Türkiye and Iran due to Qatar’s support and funding of terrorist organizations, including some such organizations within Bharat. Also, the media channel Al Jazeera operates freely from Qatar, with its bias against Bharat.

However, the economic ties and bilateral trade are significant. Qatar is an important source of oil for Bharat. On the other hand, the 800,000 migrant workers from Bharat constitute the most significant component of foreign workers in Qatar, and they contribute significantly to the Qatari economy, along with the 6,000 Indian companies operating in Qatar. Under normal circumstances, the Indian envoy in Doha has a lot of access and clout within the Qatari establishment, and this issue could perhaps have been resolved without it escalating to this level.

Implementing the IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor), which was already under stress due to the continuing Russia-Ukraine war and has also been impacted by the Middle East conflict between Israel and Hamas, will be further delayed.

  1. Diplomatic Channels and Open Dialogue

Bharat’s first line of action should continue to be diplomatic. The primary objective should be securing the safe return of the detained individuals, especially given the potentially politically motivated nature of the verdict. India must invoke the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations to ensure regular consular access and a fair appeal process for the detained veterans.

Further, a lower court in Qatar has given the death sentence. An appeal must be made to a higher court. An appeal can also be made to the Emir for pardoning the Indian naval officers.  So far, in the last 20 years, only one Nepali migrant worker has been executed in Qatar.

New Delhi must open communication channels at the highest levels, possibly involving Prime Ministerial or Presidential diplomacy. A direct conversation between leaders can often break the ice and prevent a full-blown crisis.

  1. Bilateral Talks and Strategic Diplomacy

While securing the safety and well-being of its nationals is paramount, India must also address the core allegations which link it to Israel. India could propose a joint bilateral committee to investigate the charges independently. This gesture would show India’s commitment to transparency and respect for Qatar’s concerns while upholding its interests.

If Qatar delayed the resolution of the case and set free the former naval officers, Bharat would have to think about the various options, which it could communicate privately to Qatar.

  1. Rethinking Qatar Airways’ Landing Rights

India could reconsider landing rights for Qatar Airways, a major connector between the two countries. One of the significant sources of revenue for Qatar Airways is the Indian diaspora. Qatar Airways has been given rights to many Indian airports. While this move might strain the relationship further, it would be a strong statement about the seriousness with which India views the detentions.

  1. Collaborative Engagement with Israel

Given the alleged Israeli connection, India can deepen its ties with Israel on intelligence-sharing and defense cooperation, signaling a shift in its strategic alignment. While this doesn’t mean outright siding against Qatar, it indicates a diversified strategic partnership beyond traditional alliances. India could list Hamas as a terrorist organization. This will put Qatar under notice as a state sponsor of terrorism.

  1. Economic Leverage: A Double-Edged Sword

Qatar has significant resources for oil. It is also one of the richest per capita GDP countries. Qatar and India have a robust trade relationship. Qatar is one of India’s critical natural gas suppliers and is essential to India’s energy security. Conversely, India is one of Qatar’s largest trading partners. While using economic leverage, such as trade restrictions or curbing investments, is tempting, this tactic can backfire.

Instead of immediately resorting to sanctions or trade curbs, India could consider a phased approach. An initial step might be to review ongoing projects and investments in Qatar, signaling the potential economic consequences of strained relations.

  1. Internationalizing the Issue

If bilateral channels fail to yield satisfactory outcomes, India could consider raising the matter on international platforms. This could include discussions in the United Nations, Commonwealth, or other international forums where both nations participate. By internationalizing the issue, India can rally support from like-minded countries and build pressure on Qatar.

The US had declared Qatar as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA). The US has a major base in Qatar with 10,000 US army personnel. It also carries out a lot of its air force operations and drone attacks in the region from its base in Qatar. This base was also used extensively for the evacuation of Afghans when the Taliban took over.

On the other hand, Qatar provides a haven to representatives and leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Taliban, and Al-Qaeda. Thus, Qatar is said to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.

  1. Engaging the Indian Diaspora

With a significant Indian expatriate community in Qatar, their well-being and sentiments become pivotal in such a crisis. Engaging with the diaspora, ensuring their safety, and leveraging their influence in Qatar can be crucial in resolving the situation.

The Indian diaspora in the US can also play an essential role by leveraging their connections within the US administration to seek the urgent release of the Indian naval officers.

  1. Exploring Alternative Energy Partnerships

While disrupting the energy trade between Qatar and India could immediately impact India’s economy, the long-term strategy might include diversifying energy sources. India can reduce its dependency on Qatari gas by exploring deeper partnerships with other Gulf nations or looking towards non-traditional partners.

India’s initiatives to create the International Global Solar Alliance (GSA) and, more recently, the Global Biofuel Alliance and its impetus to renewable energy will contribute significantly to energy security. These initiatives need to be expedited.

  1. Approach the International Court of Justice (ICJ)

India should approach the International Court of Justice (ICJ) concerning the detention and sentencing of its Navy veterans in Qatar, which can be strategically framed by focusing on international legal principles, especially regarding the right to a fair trial and human rights considerations. Here’s how India can approach the ICJ to block the execution:

As seen in the case between India and Pakistan concerning Kulbhushan Jadhav, India invoked the ICJ’s jurisdiction based on alleged violations of the VCCR. The Convention outlines consular officials’ rights to visit, converse with, and ensure legal representation for their citizens detained abroad. India can argue that its rights under the VCCR were breached if they were not given appropriate consular access. Both India and Qatar are also parties to the ICCPR. Article 14 of the Covenant guarantees the right to a fair trial. If India believes the Navy veterans didn’t receive a fair trial in Qatar, it can base its arguments on violations of this treaty.

  1. Humanitarian Grounds:

While legal arguments will form the core of India’s case, the country can also emphasize the humanitarian aspects, especially given the irreversibility of the death penalty. This can build international pressure, making it more than just a legal issue but a global concern.

  1. Seeking Provisional Measures:

Once the case is brought before the ICJ, India can seek provisional measures, effectively an interim order, to prevent Qatar from executing the Navy veterans until the issue is conclusively decided. This ensures that no irreversible action is taken during the court’s proceedings.

Conclusion:

The ICJ’s involvement can be a double-edged sword, as it can help bring attention to the matter and potentially halt executions. Still, it also requires substantial evidence and solid legal arguments. It is crucial for India to meticulously prepare its case, ensuring that it stands on firm legal and moral grounds. Moreover, the entire process can be time-consuming and has no guaranteed outcome. With the right strategy, India can use the ICJ as a critical platform to seek justice for its veterans.

Declaring a state as a sponsor of terrorism is a significant and severe diplomatic move, and it’s essential to understand the complexities and implications of such an action. India could consider declaring Qatar as a state sponsor of terrorism based on alleged support for Hamas. It would likely strain bilateral ties considerably, impact regional geopolitics, and could lead to retaliatory measures by the designated state.

India’s response to this crisis will test its foreign policy’s resilience, maturity, and strategic depth. While the immediate priority is securing the release of the detained veterans, New Delhi must also ensure its actions maintain the delicate balance in West Asia and its strategic interests.

Economic and diplomatic actions should be measured and phased, ensuring room for de-escalation. At its heart, diplomacy is about dialogue, trust-building, and finding common ground. It’s time for India and Qatar to navigate this challenging moment and forge a path of mutual respect and understanding.

Ambassador Pradeep Kapur

Ambassador Pradeep Kapur is an acknowledged “luminary diplomat,” with a distinguished career working with leaders and policymakers in different continents of the world: Asia, Africa, Europe, North America, and South America. He was the author and editor of many books. Kapur was Ambassador of India to Chile and Cambodia and Secretary at the Indian Ministry of External Affairs before joining as an academic in reputed universities in the USA and India. A graduate of the globally acclaimed Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi (IIT-D), he is Executive Director of Smart Village Development Fund (SVDF); International Economic Strategic Advisor, Intellect Design Arena; and Chairman, Advisory Council, DiplomacyIndia.com. His healthcare contributions include setting up of BP Koirala Institute of Health Sciences in Eastern Nepal, which is acclaimed as an exemplary bilateral India Nepal initiative.

Joseph M Chalil

Dr. Joseph M. Chalil, Chief Medical Officer at Novo Integrated Sciences, Inc., is a renowned physician executive with international recognition for his extensive contributions to healthcare innovation and research. Currently pursuing an LLM in Medical Law and Ethics at the University of Edinburgh Law School, he holds influential roles as Chairman of the Complex Health Systems Advisory Board and Adjunct Professor at Nova Southeastern University, Florida. Dr. Chalil, a U.S. Navy Medical Corps veteran, also serves as Chief Strategic Advisor for the American Association of Physicians of Indian Origin (AAPI) and is a Fellow of the American College of Healthcare Executives. His impactful book, “Beyond the Covid-19 Pandemic,” reflects his commitment to transforming global healthcare systems. A respected figure in healthcare and media, Dr. Chalil is known for his leadership in healthcare administration, balanced media representation, and insightful discussions on Indian TV news channels, showcasing his expertise in areas such as US-India relations, geopolitical issues, and public policy.

Pope Francis Encourages Theologians to Engage with Real-World Challenges

Pope Francis is urging Catholic theologians to align their work with the everyday struggles of ordinary people and to foster dialogues not only among believers but also with non-believers and those of different faiths.

In a document signed on November 1 and released by the Vatican, Pope Francis addressed the need to update the statutes governing the Pontifical Academy of Theology. The last revision was made almost 25 years ago during the papacy of his predecessor, John Paul II.

The Pope emphasized the necessity for theologians to grapple with “profound cultural transformations” without specifying particular issues. Instead, he encouraged them to embrace “openness to the world, to humanity in its concrete existential conditions, with all its complexities, wounds, challenges, and potentialities.”

This, Pope Francis asserted, represents a “paradigm shift” for theological reflection, enabling it to “interpret the Gospel within the contexts of people’s daily lives in diverse geographical, social, and cultural settings.” He stressed the importance of theologians immersing themselves in the cultures, worldviews, and religious traditions of different communities.

Theology, according to Pope Francis, must evolve within a culture of dialogue that encompasses “various Christian confessions and different religions” and engages openly with both believers and non-believers. He cautioned against theologians isolating themselves and becoming insignificant by turning inward.

Pope Francis also called for theology to be “attentive to the voices of the people,” promoting a “popular” theology that addresses the wounds of humanity, creation, and human history. This approach should prioritize knowledge derived from the “common sense of people.”

Four months ago, when selecting a theological advisor from his native Argentina to lead the Vatican’s doctrinal orthodoxy watchdog office, Pope Francis emphasized the department’s central purpose: safeguarding church teachings to provide hope and understanding, rather than condemning or pointing fingers. The Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith has the authority to discipline theologians whose work deviates from Catholic doctrine.

Throughout his ten-year papacy, Pope Francis has consistently advocated for the Catholic Church to exhibit greater compassion, especially toward those living on the fringes of society, and to adopt a more merciful perspective.

The Pontifical Academy of Theology, established in the early 18th century, serves as an advisory body that occasionally hosts conferences and other events.

European Travel Authorization System (ETIAS) Launch Delayed to Spring 2025 Due to IT Infrastructure Challenges

In 2016, the European Commission introduced a concept resembling a tourist visa, called the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS). This program was initially set to launch in early 2024 but has faced multiple delays. The EU’s Justice and Home Affairs Council announced on October 19th that the timeline had been adjusted again, pushing the launch to Spring 2025, citing the need for new technology. Initially, ETIAS was planned to be active in 2021 and was then rescheduled for November 2023.

The primary reason for these delays is the construction of another significant IT infrastructure in Europe, the Entry/Exit System (EES), intended to replace manual passport stamping with electronic registration. According to European Commission Spokesperson Anitta Hipper, ETIAS cannot launch until EES is fully operational, as it relies on EES data to identify potential risks. The contractor responsible for these IT systems, eu-LISA, estimates EES will launch in autumn 2024, with ETIAS following approximately six months later.

The delay is attributed to various factors, including delays in system development by the contractor and EU Member States’ preparations for the necessary equipment at border crossing points. The Commission is working closely with Member States and eu-LISA to minimize the impact of these delays and ensure interoperability.

When ETIAS is eventually implemented, travelers from visa-exempt countries, including the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, will need to apply online before traveling to Europe. The application process for ETIAS is relatively quick and straightforward, costing only €7 (about $8) for a three-year approval. Travelers will complete an online form with their biographical information, travel history, and answer security questions. Most travelers will receive approval within an hour, although some may undergo additional security checks, which could take up to 96 hours.

Sojourner White, a remote social worker and travel content creator, who has lived in Europe and plans to return, sees ETIAS as a minor inconvenience, particularly for US citizens who enjoy passport privileges. However, she acknowledges that the constant rescheduling of the program’s launch may confuse travelers. She recommends that travelers stay informed through the US Department of State website and enroll in the Smart Travelers Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive notifications of travel-related changes while abroad.

Is it possible for an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza to achieve its objectives?

Israel’s leadership has issued strong statements regarding their intentions in the conflict with Hamas in Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared, “Every Hamas member is a dead man,” in response to a brutal attack by the militant group that left over 1,400 people dead. The Israeli government aims to dismantle Hamas’s “terror machine” and political structure. The military operation, known as Operation Swords of Iron, is expected to be more ambitious and lengthy than previous engagements in Gaza.

Picture: BBC News

The operation’s goals, however, raise questions about their feasibility and the potential risks involved. To fully dismantle Hamas, a group rooted in extremist Islamic ideology and part of the Muslim Brotherhood, is seen as highly complex. Amir Bar Shalom, a military analyst, suggests that the more realistic objective may be weakening Hamas to limit its operational capabilities.

Hamas is not just a military organization; it also has a significant social welfare infrastructure with tens of thousands of members. Destroying Hamas entirely would mean uprooting an ideological idea that has influenced Islamist movements globally. The primary aim for Israel is to disable Hamas’s military capacity, preventing it from threatening or harming Israeli civilians.

Picture: BBC News

The ground invasion poses numerous challenges and risks. Hamas’s armed wing, the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, is prepared for Israeli offensive actions with explosive devices, ambush plans, and a network of tunnels for attacks. Previous conflicts in Gaza have resulted in heavy losses for Israeli infantry battalions and civilian casualties.

The Israeli government has demanded the evacuation of the northern half of the Gaza Strip as a precaution. International pressure for a ceasefire is growing as the conflict continues, leading to a rising death toll, shortages of essential resources, and UN warnings of a potential humanitarian catastrophe.

Yossi Melman, a prominent security and intelligence journalist, notes that Israel currently believes it has international support but acknowledges that this might change if the situation deteriorates. He suggests that Israel’s allies might intervene if the conflict leads to mass starvation or an extended occupation of Gaza.

The operation’s complexity is heightened by the presence of hostages, including both Israelis and foreign citizens. The release of these hostages is a matter of concern for several governments, including the US, France, and the UK. The Israeli government faces the difficult choice of prioritizing hostage safety or causing as much harm as possible to Hamas.

The pressure on Israel’s leaders is mounting as families of hostages make emotional appeals. It’s worth noting that a previous prisoner exchange in 2011 led to the release of Yahya Sinwar, who has since become Hamas’s political leader in Gaza. This experience might influence Israel’s decisions regarding future prisoner releases.

Picture: BBC News

The duration and outcome of a ground offensive in Gaza are closely watched not only by Israel but also by its neighbors. Egypt, in particular, is under pressure due to the humanitarian crisis at the Rafah border crossing with Gaza, where limited aid is entering while foreign nationals and Palestinians with foreign passports seek to leave.

Ofir Winter from Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies points out that as Gazans suffer from the Israeli military campaign, Egypt is compelled to appear supportive of Palestinians. However, this doesn’t translate into Egypt allowing a mass influx of Gazans into northern Sinai. President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi has warned against such a move, as it could trigger massive protests in Egypt.

Jordan’s King Abdullah has also drawn a “red line” concerning any attempt to push Palestinian refugees out of Gaza, asserting that there would be no acceptance of refugees in Jordan or Egypt.

On Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, there have been cross-border attacks involving Hezbollah, an Islamist militant group. Communities on both sides have been evacuated, but it hasn’t escalated into a new front against Israel.

Iran, Hezbollah’s primary sponsor, is threatening to open “new fronts” against Israel, prompting a warning from US President Joe Biden against exploiting the situation.

The US has deployed two aircraft carriers, the USS Gerald Ford and USS Eisenhower, to the eastern Mediterranean, and placed 2,000 troops on alert to respond to unfolding events.

The question of Israel’s endgame for Gaza looms if Hamas were significantly weakened. Israel withdrew its army and settlers from Gaza in 2005, and it has no intention of returning as an occupying force. President Joe Biden emphasizes that this would be a mistake.

However, a power vacuum in Gaza could pose serious risks. Shifting power could potentially pave the way for the gradual return of the Palestinian Authority (PA), which was ousted from Gaza by Hamas in 2007. While the PA currently controls parts of the West Bank, its presence is weak there, and persuading it to return to Gaza would be highly complicated.

The international community might provide an interim solution, similar to when the UN administered Kosovo after Serbian forces withdrew in 1999. However, the UN faces significant mistrust in Israel.

Another option is to establish an administration in Gaza, managed by mayors, tribes, clans, and non-governmental organizations, with the involvement of Egypt, the US, the PA, and other Arab states.

Egypt’s president has shown little interest in controlling Gaza but has emphasized that if a “demilitarized Palestinian state had been created long ago in negotiations, there would not be a war now.”

Rebuilding Gaza’s devastated infrastructure will be a pressing issue. Israel will likely seek tighter restrictions on “dual-use goods” entering Gaza, items with both military and civilian purposes. There are also calls for an expanded buffer zone along the Gaza fence to enhance the protection of Israeli communities.

Regardless of the war’s outcome, Israel will be determined to prevent a similar attack in the future.

Escalating Violence in the West Bank Raises Concerns

Recent weeks have witnessed a surge in deadly violence in the West Bank as the Israeli military takes action against Palestinian militants in the aftermath of the Hamas attack from Gaza. During this period, more than 90 Palestinians have lost their lives in the Israeli-occupied territory, primarily in clashes with Israeli forces.

This surge in violence has the potential to open another front in the ongoing conflict and places additional pressure on the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority. This authority administers portions of the West Bank but faces widespread unpopularity among Palestinians due to its cooperation with Israel on security matters.

The toll of casualties includes six Palestinians who lost their lives in various incidents on a recent Sunday, including two individuals who perished in an airstrike on a mosque located in the volatile Jenin refugee camp. Israel’s justification for the airstrike was that the mosque was allegedly being used by militants. Another airstrike occurred during a battle in a different West Bank refugee camp last week, resulting in the deaths of 13 Palestinians, including five minors, as well as a member of Israel’s paramilitary Border Police.

It’s worth noting that Israel seldom deploys air power in the occupied West Bank, despite its use in the ongoing bombardment of Hamas-controlled Gaza since the militant group’s cross-border incursion on October 7.

The overall death toll in Israel since the conflict’s initiation exceeds 1,400 individuals, with the majority being civilians who tragically lost their lives during the initial Hamas assault. According to the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza, over 4,300 Palestinians have perished.

In the West Bank, the Palestinian Health Ministry reports that 91 Palestinians have been killed since October 7. In the year leading up to the Hamas attack, 197 Palestinians lost their lives.

In addition to military operations, Palestinians have also been killed during anti-Israel protests marked by violence and, in some instances, by attacks from Jewish settlers.

In response to the Hamas assault, Israel swiftly tightened its control over the region, closing crossings and checkpoints between Palestinian communities. According to Israel, its security forces have detained over 700 suspects in the West Bank, including 480 Hamas members, since the conflict’s onset.

The recent resumption of aerial attacks by Israel, which reached a level of intensity in Jenin not seen since the Palestinian uprising against Israel two decades ago, suggests a shift in military tactics.

The Israeli military has described the Al-Ansar Mosque in Jenin as a militant compound linked to Hamas and Islamic Jihad, a smaller but more radical Palestinian militant group. They claim that these militants have conducted multiple attacks in recent months and were planning another imminent assault.

This escalation of violence follows more than a year of increasing raids and arrests in the West Bank and deadly Palestinian attacks on Israelis.

Israel took control of the West Bank, along with Gaza and east Jerusalem, during the 1967 war. The Palestinians aspire to have all three of these regions as part of a future state. However, over 500,000 Israelis reside in settlements across the West Bank, which are considered illegal by most of the international community. More than 2.5 million Palestinians in the West Bank live under Israeli military rule.

The settlements are viewed by Palestinians as the principal obstacle to resolving the conflict with Israel. The last significant peace negotiations, addressing substantive issues, broke down over a decade ago.

Settler violence against Palestinians has also increased since the Hamas attack. According to Palestinian authorities, at least five Palestinians have been killed by settlers, and human rights organizations report incidents of settlers torching vehicles and assaulting small Bedouin communities, leading to their evacuation to other areas.

The West Bank Protection Consortium, a coalition of non-governmental organizations and donor countries, including the European Union, has reported that at least 470 Palestinians in the West Bank have been forcibly displaced due to settler violence since October 7. This is in addition to the more than 1,100 who were displaced since 2022.

New report reveals 98% of world population experienced alarming trend this summer: ‘Virtually no one on Earth escaped’

A recent study conducted by Climate Central has unveiled the ramifications of escalating temperatures in the year 2023 and has emphasized the role of humanity in exacerbating this issue. The discoveries are truly enlightening and serve as a poignant reminder of the collective responsibility we all share in addressing the underlying causes of global warming.

So, what precisely did this study reveal? In accordance with the research group Climate Central, this peer-reviewed investigation, as summarized by Euronews Green and Reuters, has brought to light a startling statistic. It was determined that a staggering 98% of the global populace encountered temperatures higher than the norm between the months of June and August in the current year. Moreover, these elevated temperatures were found to be twice as likely to be attributable to human-induced pollution.
This study delved into global heat events and employed advanced modeling techniques to eliminate the influence of pollution, enabling a determination of the potential high temperatures in a world untouched by human factors. By analyzing data from 180 countries and 22 territories, it was estimated that approximately 6.2 billion individuals endured at least one day of substantially high average temperatures that would have been extremely improbable to attain in the absence of carbon pollution.

The influence of human activities made these temperatures five times more likely to occur.

The Vice President for Science at Climate Central, Andrew Pershing, emphasized the far-reaching impact of global warming during the past three months, stating, “Virtually no one on Earth escaped the influence of global warming during the past three months.”

One of the most disconcerting revelations of this study pertains to the month of July, which emerged as the hottest on record. Additionally, August witnessed an average temperature increase of 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit when compared to the same month before the onset of widespread industrial activities.

The gravity of this situation becomes even more apparent when considering that these concerning heat trends were observed not only in traditionally warmer regions but globally. As Andrew Pershing noted, “In every country we could analyze, including the Southern Hemisphere, where this is the coolest time of year, we saw temperatures that would be difficult — and in some cases nearly impossible — without human-caused climate change.” This statement raises significant concerns, particularly in light of the devastating heatwaves and wildfires that have ravaged the United States and Southern Europe in 2023.

In examining isolated heatwaves, climate scientist Friederike Otto from the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment underscored that these extreme events had become “infinitely more likely” due to the planet’s rising temperatures, as reported by Euronews Green.

So, what actions can we take to mitigate the human impact on our climate? This study consistently points to human-induced pollution as the driving force behind the alarming heat trends. In light of this, it is imperative that we work towards reducing the harmful gases released into the atmosphere.

Initiating changes in our daily lives, such as opting for eco-friendly modes of transportation like walking, biking, or using public transit instead of relying on fossil fuel-powered vehicles, can be a significant step forward. Additionally, making a conscious effort to reduce meat consumption in our weekly diets can contribute positively to the environment. It is worth noting that the agricultural processes associated with beef, pork, and chicken supply chains make substantial contributions to global pollution and deforestation, as highlighted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Given that 98% of the global population has experienced elevated temperatures in the year 2023, it is in the best interest of everyone to collectively address the root causes of this phenomenon. Each of us plays a crucial role in preventing further exacerbation of this issue and safeguarding the planet for future generations.

Attack By Hamas Forces Reassessment of Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

On October 7th, Israel experienced a shockingly unexpected attack, reminiscent of the 1973 October War, which brought the nation to the brink 50 years ago. This recent assault by Hamas from the Gaza Strip, occurring on a holiday morning and taking Israel off guard, draws parallels with historical conflicts that reshaped their respective landscapes. Similar to the Tet Offensive during the Vietnam War, the Hamas attack demonstrated unforeseen capacities, briefly overwhelming a superior military, and prompting a reevaluation of the conflict’s nature.

The prevailing assumption in Israel that the Palestinian conflict could be “managed” rather than resolved is now in question. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discarded this notion, declaring that the country was “at war,” not engaged in a mere operation or round of conflict. This shift in perspective has far-reaching implications, not only for Israel but also for global political and military leaders who must reconsider the potential outcomes of this conflict.

This attack has cast doubt on a potential peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia that hinged on the presumed acceptance of the status quo by the occupied Palestinians. It also challenges America’s longstanding hope to shift its focus away from the Middle East and rekindles the competition between global powers in the region. Once again, Israel and the Palestinians become pivotal players in the near future of geopolitics.

Israel had grown accustomed to brief, one-sided battles with Gaza militants, often fought using drones or fighter jets. Israeli officials even humorously referred to these encounters as “cutting the grass.” This routine became a stark military aspect of “managing the conflict,” a strategy that has dominated for decades. It operates on the assumption that there is no political solution to the contest for land between Jewish Israelis and Palestinians, both of whom lay claim to the same territory.

In the West Bank, home to 3 million Palestinians and around 500,000 Jewish settlers, much of the management falls under the purview of a robust internal security apparatus overseen by Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen. Abbas wagered that quelling violent resistance, including from Hamas, a rival to his Fatah party, would lead to negotiations resulting in a Palestinian state. However, this bet has not paid off.

TOPSHOT – Palestinians run for cover from tear gas during clashes with Israeli security forces near the border between Israel and the Gaza Strip, east of Jabalia on May 14, 2018, as Palestinians protest over the inauguration of the US embassy following its controversial move to Jerusalem. (Photo by MOHAMMED ABED / AFP) (Photo credit should read MOHAMMED ABED/AFP via Getty Images)

Unlike the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, housing 2.2 million Palestinians, saw the departure of Jewish settlers and the Israeli military in 2005. Since then, it has been governed by Hamas, or the Islamic Resistance Movement, and sealed off by Israel. While Israel exerts control over Gaza’s power supply, telephone systems, and much of its economy, managing it has proven more challenging. Poverty is widespread, and the young population has limited options for leaving. Israeli security relied heavily on fences and walls, which Hamas guerrillas tunneled under in 2014 and demolished on October 7th, using paragliders.

The events that followed have left a deep impact on Israelis, who, in addition to possessing the region’s most powerful military, carry a reservoir of trauma. In the chaotic hours of that Sabbath morning, everything was overwhelmed: the Israel Defense Force, the Iron Dome missile defense system, and the sense of security that had led hundreds of young people to an overnight rave in the desert where the paragliders landed and opened fire. Some of these terrified revelers became among the approximately 100 hostages, including Israelis and foreign citizens, taken into Gaza.

The abduction of individuals, including the bodies of soldiers, has been a recurring tactic in the asymmetrical warfare faced by Israel. It provides bargaining leverage following hit-and-run operations. These actions, along with civilian casualties, ensure sympathy for Israel and afford it latitude in its responses. Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to turn parts of Gaza “to rubble,” but doing so while dozens of Israeli hostages are in harm’s way presents a complex challenge.

The surprise attack by Hamas on Israel has shattered assumptions about managing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It has led to a shift in perspective from “management” to being officially “at war.” This development has far-reaching implications, influencing not only the regional dynamics but also global politics. The events that unfolded on that fateful day have left deep scars on the collective psyche of Israelis, and the situation remains fluid, with complex challenges ahead.

India To Push Developed Nations To Become ‘Carbon Negative’ Before 2050

India is aiming to urge developed nations to embrace a more ambitious target of becoming carbon negative rather than merely carbon neutral by 2050. This move is rooted in the argument that this approach would provide emerging economies with additional time to utilize fossil fuels to meet their developmental needs. Two sources within the Indian government revealed that India, which has been resisting calls to commit to a specific deadline for phasing out coal and other fossil fuels, plans to present this proposal at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai later this year.

“One of the government officials said, ‘The rich countries should become net negative emitters before 2050 to enable the world to achieve the target of global net-zero by that year while allowing developing nations to use the available natural resources for growth,'” according to one of the government officials.

As it currently stands, developed countries, including the United States, Britain, Canada, and Japan, are targeting achieving net zero emissions by 2050. China has committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2060, while India has set a target of achieving this goal by 2070. Net zero or carbon neutrality denotes a scenario in which the volume of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere through human activities is offset by corresponding activities designed to remove an equivalent amount. In contrast, being carbon negative is a more ambitious undertaking that requires a nation to remove more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than it emits.

The discussions at COP28 are unfolding against a backdrop of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and unpredictable monsoons, which have underscored the urgency of taking immediate action on climate change.

India, in its approach, intends to persist in resisting the pressure from developed economies to establish a concrete deadline for phasing down the use of fossil fuels. Instead, it is advocating for a shift in focus towards reducing overall carbon emissions through the use of “abatement and mitigation technologies.” These insights were provided by the two officials, and a third government official, who opted to remain anonymous as these discussions are confidential, and a definitive stance has not yet been established.

Efforts to obtain comments from India’s environment, external affairs, and prime minister’s offices through email inquiries were unsuccessful.

India has already committed to operating 50% of its installed power capacity using non-fossil energy sources and reducing its greenhouse emissions-to-GDP ratio to 45% of the 2005 level by 2030.

During a summit held in New Delhi just last month, the G20 countries acknowledged the necessity of reducing unabated coal power, although they did not specify a timeline or set emission reduction targets. This declaration marked a positive step in global climate negotiations, with these 20 nations, which collectively account for over 80% of global emissions, agreeing to phase out coal for the first time. This development was particularly notable as coal-dependent economies, including China, India, and Indonesia, have previously resisted discussions about transitioning away from coal and instead called for developed economies to cease using gas.

One official emphasized that it is currently unfeasible for India to commit to a timeline for ending coal usage, as coal is anticipated to remain a fundamental component of the country’s energy mix in the foreseeable future, even if energy storage and abatement technologies become viable in a hypothetical scenario.

Statistics reveal that thermal power stations continue to supply 73% of the electricity consumed in India, despite the country increasing its non-fossil energy capacity to constitute 44% of its total installed power generation capacity.

COP28 is scheduled to be held between November 30 and December 12, providing a significant platform for discussions on these crucial matters of global climate action.

‘Entire Planet Will Be Under Our Law,’ Hamas Leader Mahmoud Al-Zahar’s Warns The World

Amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Gaza, a concerning message has surfaced from Hamas Commander Mahmoud al-Zahar, expressing his group’s aspirations for global dominance.

A video clip, lasting over a minute, featuring the senior Hamas official has gone viral on the internet. In the footage, he claims that Israel is just the initial target and that their goal is to expand their influence worldwide. This ominous warning comes as Israel has declared war on Hamas following a shocking attack that claimed the lives of hundreds of Israelis.

Zahar stated in the video, “Israel is only the first target. The entire planet will be under our rule.”

He continued, “The entire 510 million square kilometres of Planet Earth will be subject to a system devoid of injustice, oppression, and the kind of violence and crimes witnessed against Palestinians and Arabs in various Arab countries, including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and others.”

Shortly after the video emerged, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a statement reaffirming his commitment to the ongoing fight against Hamas, declaring that every member of the Palestinian group was a target.

“Hamas is equivalent to Daesh (the Islamic State group), and we will dismantle them just as the world did with Daesh,” he stated during a brief televised address.

Meanwhile, Hamas members holding Israeli soldiers and civilians captive have issued a threat to execute a hostage for each Gaza home struck by Israel without warning. At the time, there was no confirmation of Hamas carrying out this threat.

In response to the escalating crisis, Israel has formed an emergency unity government, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu working alongside former Defense Minister Benny Gantz in a war cabinet.

This development comes as the Israeli military intensifies its operations in Gaza, aiming to eradicate the Palestinian group Hamas before a potential ground offensive in the Palestinian coastal enclave.

Comparing Hamas to ISIS, Netanyahu outlined some of the horrific acts committed during the recent attacks, including the burning of individuals alive. He highlighted that nearly every Israeli family has a connection to a victim of these attacks.

“We will unite to protect our homeland,” Netanyahu declared and expressed appreciation for the “unprecedented” support Israel has received from global leaders. “We are on the offensive… Every Hamas member is a target,” he asserted.

Netanyahu concluded by emphasizing that all of Israel stands behind its soldiers, assuring that Israel will emerge victorious.

“We are all one; we are all enlisted in this fight,” proclaimed Benny Gantz. He added, “There is only one camp, the camp of the Nation of Israel,” emphasizing that the partnership with Netanyahu is not political but one of fate. “All of Israel is under Order Number 8 (the order sent to reservists for an emergency wartime call-up),” Gantz noted.

Mongolia in Tibetan Buddhism and China’s Influence

For centuries, Tibetan Buddhism has been guided by the Dalai Lama, an 88-year-old spiritual leader who sought refuge in India in 1959 and has since lived in exile. However, Beijing views the Dalai Lama as a separatist figure and insists that only the Communist Party, an avowedly atheist organization, possesses the authority to designate his next reincarnation, as well as that of other prominent lamas. This control over religious leadership is part of China’s strategy to diminish the Dalai Lama’s influence in Tibet and suppress any challenges to the Communist Party’s dominance. As the Dalai Lama advances in age, tensions escalate over the eventual struggle between Tibetan exiles and Beijing for the legitimate succession of his reincarnation.

Mongolia’s Complicated Role in the Tibetan Buddhist Leadership

Mongolia plays a pivotal role in this complex narrative due to the significant following the Dalai Lama enjoys within its borders. Nearly half of Mongolia’s 3.4 million population identifies as Buddhist. The roots of Tibetan Buddhism in Mongolia run deep, with a history spanning over seven centuries. Nevertheless, the faith faced severe suppression for more than seven decades during Mongolia’s socialist rule, which began in 1924. The resurgence of Buddhism only occurred following democratic reforms in the 1990s.

The veneration of the Dalai Lama has created a challenging situation for the Mongolian government. Mongolia heavily relies on China for virtually all its trade, which puts them in a vulnerable position. Beijing responded to the Dalai Lama’s 2016 visit to Mongolia by closing border crossings, imposing tariffs, and canceling bilateral talks, signaling the consequences of any association with the spiritual leader in the eyes of China.

Mongolia’s Spiritual Leader: The Bogd

The spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism in Mongolia is known as the Bogd, formally addressed as the Jebtsundamba Khutughtu. This position boasts a rich history dating back nearly four centuries to the descendants of the Mongol emperor Kublai Khan. Currently, an 8-year-old boy represents the 10th incarnation of the Bogd, succeeding the previous one who passed away in 2012.

Although Tibetan Buddhism does not adhere as rigidly to hierarchical structures as some organized religions, such as the Roman Catholic Church, the Bogd holds one of the most esteemed senior positions in Tibetan Buddhism, ranking after the Dalai Lama and the Panchen Lama. Notably, the Panchen Lama, who was appointed by the Dalai Lama in 1995, was abducted by China and replaced with a monk chosen by Beijing, illustrating China’s aggressive interference in Tibetan religious affairs.

The Enigmatic Process of Lama Selection

The selection process for high lamas is shrouded in mystery. Tibetan Buddhist leaders claim to follow an ancient tradition involving mystical visions and astrology to guide their search. Candidates are subjected to tests to determine if they exhibit qualities considered exceptionally holy. In the case of the boy chosen as the next Bogd, religious officials disclosed that he underwent a secret test as a toddler and successfully identified personal artifacts belonging to the previous Bogd.

Throughout history, this process has been criticized for being influenced by politics and, at times, corruption. In the late 18th century, Emperor Qianlong of China attempted to address these concerns by introducing a system where lots were drawn from a golden urn to select lamas. The Chinese Communist Party has revived this “golden urn” system as part of its efforts to control the appointment of senior monks. However, this system is widely viewed as illegitimate by those outside China.

The intricate relationship between Mongolia, Tibetan Buddhism, and China reflects the challenges and complexities surrounding religious leadership, succession, and external influence. As the Dalai Lama’s advancing age raises questions about his reincarnation, the dynamics between these key players will continue to shape the future of Tibetan Buddhism in the region.

Narges Mohammadi, Iranian Rights Activist Receives Nobel Peace Prize

Iran’s most prominent human rights advocate, Narges Mohammadi, who is currently imprisoned in Evin Prison, was awarded the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize in an effort by the Norwegian Nobel Committee to support women’s rights in Iran.

Ms. Mohammadi, aged 51, has spent the majority of the past decade in and out of prison, facing charges of “spreading anti-state propaganda” and is currently serving a 10-year sentence, as part of Iran’s ongoing campaign to suppress her activism.

Despite her incarceration, she has remained one of the most vocal critics of Iran’s government. She organized protests within the prison, penned opinion pieces, and conducted weekly workshops for female inmates on their rights, particularly in response to a significant uprising led by women in Iran last year after the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old who died in the custody of the country’s morality police.

Ms. Mohammadi’s family released a statement on her behalf, vowing to continue her activism within Iran even if it meant spending the rest of her life in captivity. She stated, “Standing alongside the brave mothers of Iran, I will continue to fight against the relentless discrimination, tyranny, and gender-based oppression by the oppressive religious government until the liberation of women.”

The Nobel committee not only recognized Ms. Mohammadi’s efforts but also acknowledged the hundreds of thousands of people who have protested against Iran’s discriminatory policies against women. Berit Reiss-Andersen, who leads the committee, noted, “Her struggle has come at tremendous personal cost.”

Iranian authorities remained silent in response to the news of Ms. Mohammadi’s award, with state-affiliated media dismissing it as a Western plot to incite further unrest. However, her family, human rights activists, and supporters celebrated the recognition.

Kenneth Roth, former executive director of Human Rights Watch, praised Ms. Mohammadi’s resilience, stating, “She even treats prison as an opportunity to document and publicize that repression.”

While the international attention may eventually lead to Ms. Mohammadi’s release, her family expects Iran to increase pressure on her in captivity in the short term.

Ms. Mohammadi’s activism has focused on various issues, including Iran’s hijab law, violence and sexual harassment against women, the status of women under the religious government, the rights of death row prisoners, and the transition to democracy in Iran.

She is the 19th woman to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize since its inception in 1901 and the second Iranian woman to win, following Shirin Ebadi in 2003. Ms. Ebadi, a human rights lawyer and Ms. Mohammadi’s mentor, expressed hope that the recognition would lead to the release of political prisoners and bring freedom and democracy to Iran.

Narges Mohammadi’s journey began in her hometown of Zanjan, Iran, where she was born into a middle-class family. Her activism started with childhood memories of her mother visiting her uncle in prison and listening to the names of executed prisoners on television. She pursued a degree in physics in college and quickly became involved in activism, founding women’s hiking and civic engagement groups.

Picture: NYT

Her activism intensified after her employer was forced to terminate her in 2008, and she was banned from working in engineering. She authored the book “White Torture,” which documented psychological torture and abuse of prisoners in Iran. Earlier this year, she received PEN America’s Barbey Freedom to Write Award and was named one of the recipients of the United Nations’ World Press Freedom Prize.

Last year, Ms. Mohammadi’s activism gained renewed urgency following the nationwide uprising triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of the morality police. The Iranian government responded with force, resulting in numerous deaths, arrests, and protests. Despite the government’s actions, Ms. Mohammadi remained steadfast in her commitment to change within Iran.

The Nobel Peace Prize recognizes Narges Mohammadi’s unwavering dedication to human rights and women’s rights in Iran, even in the face of adversity and imprisonment. Her story serves as an inspiration to those fighting for justice and freedom around the world.

Hamas’ Surprise Attack Forces Reassessment of Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

On October 7th, Israel experienced a shockingly unexpected attack, reminiscent of the 1973 October War, which brought the nation to the brink 50 years ago. This recent assault by Hamas from the Gaza Strip, occurring on a holiday morning and taking Israel off guard, draws parallels with historical conflicts that reshaped their respective landscapes. Similar to the Tet Offensive during the Vietnam War, the Hamas attack demonstrated unforeseen capacities, briefly overwhelming a superior military, and prompting a reevaluation of the conflict’s nature.

The prevailing assumption in Israel that the Palestinian conflict could be “managed” rather than resolved is now in question. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discarded this notion, declaring that the country was “at war,” not engaged in a mere operation or round of conflict. This shift in perspective has far-reaching implications, not only for Israel but also for global political and military leaders who must reconsider the potential outcomes of this conflict.

This attack has cast doubt on a potential peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia that hinged on the presumed acceptance of the status quo by the occupied Palestinians. It also challenges America’s longstanding hope to shift its focus away from the Middle East and rekindles the competition between global powers in the region. Once again, Israel and the Palestinians become pivotal players in the near future of geopolitics.

Picture: France 24

Israel had grown accustomed to brief, one-sided battles with Gaza militants, often fought using drones or fighter jets. Israeli officials even humorously referred to these encounters as “cutting the grass.” This routine became a stark military aspect of “managing the conflict,” a strategy that has dominated for decades. It operates on the assumption that there is no political solution to the contest for land between Jewish Israelis and Palestinians, both of whom lay claim to the same territory.

In the West Bank, home to 3 million Palestinians and around 500,000 Jewish settlers, much of the management falls under the purview of a robust internal security apparatus overseen by Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen. Abbas wagered that quelling violent resistance, including from Hamas, a rival to his Fatah party, would lead to negotiations resulting in a Palestinian state. However, this bet has not paid off.

Unlike the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, housing 2.2 million Palestinians, saw the departure of Jewish settlers and the Israeli military in 2005. Since then, it has been governed by Hamas, or the Islamic Resistance Movement, and sealed off by Israel. While Israel exerts control over Gaza’s power supply, telephone systems, and much of its economy, managing it has proven more challenging. Poverty is widespread, and the young population has limited options for leaving. Israeli security relied heavily on fences and walls, which Hamas guerrillas tunneled under in 2014 and demolished on October 7th, using paragliders.

The events that followed have left a deep impact on Israelis, who, in addition to possessing the region’s most powerful military, carry a reservoir of trauma. In the chaotic hours of that Sabbath morning, everything was overwhelmed: the Israel Defense Force, the Iron Dome missile defense system, and the sense of security that had led hundreds of young people to an overnight rave in the desert where the paragliders landed and opened fire. Some of these terrified revelers became among the approximately 100 hostages, including Israelis and foreign citizens, taken into Gaza.

The abduction of individuals, including the bodies of soldiers, has been a recurring tactic in the asymmetrical warfare faced by Israel. It provides bargaining leverage following hit-and-run operations. These actions, along with civilian casualties, ensure sympathy for Israel and afford it latitude in its responses. Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to turn parts of Gaza “to rubble,” but doing so while dozens of Israeli hostages are in harm’s way presents a complex challenge.

The surprise attack by Hamas on Israel has shattered assumptions about managing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It has led to a shift in perspective from “management” to being officially “at war.” This development has far-reaching implications, influencing not only the regional dynamics but also global politics. The events that unfolded on that fateful day have left deep scars on the collective psyche of Israelis, and the situation remains fluid, with complex challenges ahead.

India Asks Canada To Withdraw 40 Diplomats By Oct 10

India is learnt to have told Canada to withdraw around 40 diplomats from the country by October 10 amid worsening ties between the two nations, according to reports. The reports have said that New Delhi has conveyed to Canada that if the diplomats are not withdrawn by the deadline, they will lose their diplomatic immunity.

There are more than 60 Canadian diplomats posted in India.

Last month, after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had alleged in Parliament that Indian intelligence agents may have been involved in the murder of Sikh pro-Khalistan hardliner Hardeep Singh Nijjar, the diplomatic relations have hit an all time low between the two nations. Following Trudeau’s allegations, both the countries had expelled a diplomat each. India had also termed Canada’s allegations as “politically driven”.

External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi had said: “Yes, we’ve informed the government of Canada that there should be parity in strength in our mutual diplomatic presence. Their number is very much higher than ours in Canada… I assume there will be a reduction from the Canadian side.”

Global Leaders Plead for Peace in Ukraine at UN

The 2023 United Nations General Assembly, much like the previous year, has been engaged in discussions concerning the role of the United Nations and its member nations in addressing the crisis in Ukraine.

The United States and its allies continue to assert that the UN Charter mandates countries to support Ukraine in the conflict until its pre-2014 internationally recognized borders are restored. They argue that this obligation stems from Article 2:4 of the UN Charter, which prohibits the threat or use of force against a state’s territorial integrity or political independence in international relations.

According to their interpretation, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine constitutes a violation of Article 2:4, making any compromise or negotiated settlement unacceptable, regardless of the consequences of prolonging the war.

In contrast, other nations have advocated for a peaceful diplomatic resolution of the Ukraine conflict, emphasizing Article 2:3 of the UN Charter, which encourages members to settle international disputes through peaceful means to preserve international peace, security, and justice.

They also point to the UN’s purposes, outlined in Article 1:1, which include the resolution of international disputes through peaceful means, highlighting the urgency of diplomacy to swiftly end the war, given the risks of escalation and nuclear conflict.

The Amir of Qatar expressed this sentiment to the General Assembly, stating, “A long-term truce has become the most looked-for aspiration by people in Europe and all over the world. We call on all parties to comply with the UN Charter and international law and resort to a radical peaceful solution based on these principles.”

This year’s General Assembly has also addressed various other global crises, such as the failure to address climate change, the limited progress on the Sustainable Development Goals established in 2000, the persisting neocolonial economic system, and the pressing need for reform of the UN Security Council, which has fallen short of its primary duty to maintain peace and prevent conflict.

Leaders from different nations have raised concerns about abuses of power by the United States and Western nations. These include the occupation of Palestine, controversial and unlawful U.S. sanctions against countries like Cuba, Western exploitation of Africa, and a global financial system that exacerbates wealth and power inequalities worldwide.

Brazil’s President Lula da Silva addressed the Ukraine crisis, emphasizing the importance of dialogue and the UN’s role in promoting peace. He said, “The war in Ukraine exposes our collective inability to enforce the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. I have reiterated that work needs to be done to create space for negotiations… The international community must choose between the expansion of conflicts, furthering inequalities, and the renewal of multilateral institutions dedicated to promoting peace.”

President Biden’s speech at the General Assembly received criticism for being unclear and disjointed. President Gustavo Petro of Colombia highlighted the irony of humanity’s focus on war and conflict instead of working to extend life beyond Earth. He called for an end to wars in Ukraine, Palestine, and elsewhere and proposed two peace conferences, one for Ukraine and one for Palestine, to guide global peace efforts.

Other leaders, such as Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, rejected the notion that the central global struggle is between democracies and autocracies. He argued that the real conflict revolves around control, ownership, and distribution of the world’s resources. Gonsalves also urged Russia, NATO, and Ukraine to embrace peace to avoid a potential nuclear catastrophe.

Some NATO members, including Bulgaria, Hungary, and Spain, combined their denunciations of Russian aggression with pleas for peace, emphasizing the need to end the killing and destruction.

African leaders also took the opportunity to call for peace in Ukraine, highlighting the stark contrast between the world’s attention to the Ukraine conflict and its neglect of Africa’s challenges. They stressed the importance of ending the Ukraine conflict for global peace, energy security, and food security.

Leaders from approximately 50 countries voiced their support for peace in Ukraine at the 2023 UN General Assembly. They emphasized the principles of the UN Charter, the urgency of diplomatic solutions, and the need to prevent further violence in Ukraine. The international community appears united in its commitment to preserving territorial integrity, sovereignty, and peace.

Pope Francis And Bill Clinton Discuss ‘Wind Of War That Blows Throughout The World’

(RNS) — In an online conversation with former U.S. President Bill Clinton on Monday (Sept. 18), Pope Francis stressed the importance of people and nations coming together to care for the environment and to put an end to global conflicts.

“It’s time to shift toward peace and brotherhood. It’s time to put down the weapons and return to dialogue, to diplomacy. Let us cease the pursuit of conquest and military aggression. That’s why I repeat: no to war!” the pope said, answering a question by the former U.S. president.

The conversation between the political and spiritual leaders was livestreamed at the 2023 meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative, taking place in New York City Sept. 18-19. The event seeks to address urgent global issues, such as climate change and the flow of refugees.

To these challenges, Francis added another: “the wind of war that blows throughout the world,” fueling what he described as “the Third World War, fought piecemeal.”

The pope urged all nations to take responsibility and stressed that “no challenge can be faced alone — only together, sisters and brothers, children of God,” he said.

Pope Francis has been a vocal advocate for peace following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has sought a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. He appointed Cardinal Matteo Zuppi as a peace envoy to meet with the main stakeholders in the war, including President Joe Biden in July.

In his message, the pope also stated that “it is time to work together to stop the ecological catastrophe, before it is too late,” and repeated his intention to publish a new version of his “green” encyclical, “Laudato Si,” for the care and protection of the environment.

Clinton said he had a “wonderful meeting” with the pope at the Vatican in early July.

“You make us all feel empowered and that is perhaps your greatest power as the pope,” Clinton said during the conference. “You make everybody, even those who aren’t members of the Catholic Church, feel like they have power and share in the responsibility.”

The Clinton Global Initiative was created by Bill Clinton in 2005 and collaborates with over 10,000 organizations aiming to provide actionable solutions to global challenges.

Among the main reasons for the online meeting was raising awareness for the Pediatric Hospital Bambino Gesù, commonly referred to as the “pope’s hospital.” The pope spoke of the care that the hospital provides despite its small size, including helping Ukrainian children fleeing the conflict.

“There are illnesses that cannot be cured, but there are no children that cannot be cared for,” he said.

Is Iran On The Brink Of Producing Nuclear Weapons?

The United Nations nuclear watchdog, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has condemned Iran’s move to withdraw accreditation for several of its most experienced inspectors as “disproportionate and unprecedented”.

U.N. nuclear chief Rafael Grossi said in an interview Monday, Sep. 18, 2023 with the media that the Iranian government’s removal of many cameras and electronic monitoring systems installed by the International Atomic Energy Agency make it impossible to give assurances about the country’s nuclear program. Grossi has previously warned that Tehran has enough enriched uranium for “several” nuclear bombs if it chose to build them.

Picture : VOA

Grossi said the experts who lost accreditation had “unique knowledge in enrichment technology” and had previously conducted essential verification work at Iranian enrichment facilities under IAEA safeguards. Grossi said Iran’s move “constitutes an unnecessary blow to an already strained relationship between the IAEA and Iran”.

The IAEA director general also said he asked to meet Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi to try to reverse Tehran’s uncalled for ban on “a very sizable chunk” of the agency’s inspectors.

The deal
In 2015, major world powers reached a deal with Iran under which it was to check its nuclear programme in exchange for relief from crippling economic sanctions. But in 2018, then-US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the deal and reimposed sanctions.

Iran’s response
The strongly worded statement came amid longstanding tensions between Iran and the IAEA, which is tasked with monitoring Iran’s nuclear programme that western nations suspected is aimed at developing nuclear weapons. Iran insists the programme is peaceful.

Iran’s foreign ministry criticised the IAEA’s approach, linking it to an alleged attempt by the US, France, Germany and Britain to misuse the UN’s nuclear agency “for their own political purposes” and in retaliation for “political abuses”.

The Vienna-based IAEA reported earlier this month that Iran had slowed the pace at which it was enriching uranium to nearly weapons-grade levels. That was seen as a sign that Iran was trying to ease tensions after years of strain in its relationship with the US.

A top Pentagon official had reported that Iran could make the nuclear material for a device in about 12 days if it wanted to do so. The International Atomic Energy Agency also stated its monitors had detected that Iran now had the capability of enriching uranium to close to 84%, which is on the verge of making weapons-grade uranium.

Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s top policy official, when asked to describe Iran’s nuclear progress since then-President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA.

“Iran’s nuclear progress since we left the JCPOA has been remarkable,” Kahl said. “Back in 2018, when the previous administration decided to leave the JCPOA, it would have taken Iran about 12 months to produce one bomb’s worth of fissile material,” said Kahl about Iran’s so called “breakout time. “Now it would take about 12 days.”

Kahl said he still thinks going back to the deal is better than not having any deal because he said it could “put constraints” on Iran. At the same, he acknowledged that isn’t likely, given that efforts to go back to the deal are “on ice” since Iran turned down a U.S. offer last summer.

“Of course, Iran’s behavior has changed since then, not the least of which there’s support for Russia and Ukraine, which is the subject of the conversation here today,” he told lawmakers. “So, I don’t think we’re on the precipice of reentering the JCPOA.”

Meanwhile, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi said Tuesday that his country will never give up its right “to have peaceful nuclear energy” and urged the United States “to demonstrate in a verifiable fashion” that it wants to return to the 2015 nuclear deal. Addressing the annual high-level meeting of the U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday, September 20, 2023, Raisi said the American withdrawal from the deal trampled on U.S. commitments and was “an inappropriate response” to Iran’s fulfillment of its commitments.

Raisi made no mention of the IAEA inspectors but the European Union issued a statement late Tuesday saying its top diplomat, Josep Borrell, met Iran’s Foreign Minister on Tuesday and raised the nuclear deal and the inspectors as well as Iran’s arbitrary detention of many EU citizens including dual nationals.

Biden Reaffirms US Support For India’s Seat On The UN Security Council

During his speech at the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), in New York, US President Joe Biden reaffirmed the unwavering commitment of the United States to reform the United Nations Security Council membership, thus supporting India’s primary goal of a permanent seat on UNSC. Biden emphasized support for other key US-India strategic endeavors including strengthening of the Quad partnership, advancing Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), and welcoming the African Union’s inclusion in the G20, accomplished during India’s leadership in that forum.

Addressing world leaders during the UN general debate, President Biden recalled, “In my address to this body, last year, I announced the United States to support expanding the Security Council, increasing the number of permanent and non-permanent members. The United States has undertaken serious consultation with many Member States and will continue to do our part to push more reform efforts forward…”

Biden noted, “This month we strengthened the G20 as a vital forum welcoming the African Union as a permanent member by upgrading and strengthening our institutions… That’s only half of the picture. We must also forge new partnerships, confront new challenges…” adding “In the Indo Pacific, we’ve elevated our Quad partnership with India, Japan, and Australia, to deliver concrete progress to people of the region on everything from vaccines to maritime security.”

“Similarly groundbreaking efforts were announced at the G20 [in New Delhi] connecting India to Europe, through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel – will spur opportunities investment across two continents…” Biden added about the PGII initiative.

Picture : TheUNN

Over 151 Heads of State and Government are participating in the high-level week in New York, where four of the five permanent members of UNSC – Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom will be absent. US President Joe Biden is the only permanent member of UNSC who participated and addressed global leaders as well.

PM Modi, who successfully hosted the G20 Summit in New Delhi, will not be traveling to New York to address the UNGA session. Instead, India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar will address the session on September 26 and is expected to reaffirm India’s commitment to several vital issues including the Global South.

On the eve of the UNGA session, Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations, Ambassador Ruchira Kamboj said that India’s participation during the current session will underscore its steadfast dedication to the “global cooperation, peace, and sustainable development.” This commitment is rooted in the vision of a unified global family and resonates with the sentiments articulated by PM Modi, according to Kamboj.

Emphasizing India’s focus during the UNGA session, Kamboj noted, “Firstly, as the current President of the G20, India will continue to emphasize issues that are vital to the Global South countries including climate action, finance, and the sustainable development goals. We proudly opened the doors for the African Union to join the G20 recognizing the importance of global collaboration to address contemporary challenges.”

Kamboj pointed out that the G20 New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration underscores India’s dedication to fostering sustainable economic growth and promoting environmentally friendly initiatives. This commitment is exemplified by the collective focus on an inclusive and action driven G20 agenda under PM Modi’s guidance.

On human rights and social issues, Kamboj added “We stand firmly for women’s rights, constructive human rights dialogues, and an intercultural dialogue for peace. India will Chair the 62nd session of the UN Commission for Social Development, the first time since 1975, that India holds this esteemed position.”

About UN reforms, Kamboj said India actively engages in discussion surrounding UNSC reforms with a primary goal of securing permanent membership and emphasizing the need for expansion of both permanent and non-permanent member categories. Furthermore, India will prioritize efforts to revitalize the Non-Aligned Movement.

On September 18, two members of G4 nations, Japan and Brazil met on the sidelines of the UNGA session in New York and discussed ways to carry forward the G20 agenda under India’s Presidency.

“The two Ministers shared the view that Japan and Brazil will continue to strengthen cooperation as ‘strategic global partners’ and that they will work together towards the G20 Rio de Janeiro Summit next year, building on the achievements that led from the G7 Hiroshima Summit to the G20 New Delhi Summit,” Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan, Kamikawa Yoko, and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Federative Republic of Brazil, Mauro Vieira said in their joint statement.

The Joint Communiqué of the Fourth Trilateral Meeting of the African Union, the European Union and the United Nations on September 17 also reaffirmed their leaders “commitment to promote effective multilateralism and welcomed the extension of G20 membership to the African Union.” Notably, the African Union was inducted as a permanent member during the recently concluded G20 Leaders’ Summit under India’s Presidency in New Delhi.

UN Living In The 1940s Mindset, Urgently In Need Of Reforms

(IPS) – Politically, the United Nations has largely been described as a monumental failure —with little or no progress in resolving some of the world’s past and ongoing military conflicts and civil wars, including Palestine, Western Sahara, Kashmir, and more recently, Ukraine, Yemen, Afghanistan, Syria, Sudan and Myanmar, among others.

Still, to give the devil its due, the UN has made some remarkable progress providing food, shelter and medical care to millions of people caught in military conflicts, including in Ukraine, Sudan, Syria, Libya and Somalia. Has the UN been gradually transformed into a humanitarian aid organization — diplomats without borders?

How fair are these characterizations?

Meanwhile, during the high-level meeting of the UN General Assembly beginning September 18, some of the world’s political leaders, representing four of the five permanent members (P5) of the Security Council, were MIAs (missing in action): Prime Minister Rushi Sunak of UK, President Emmanuel Macron of France, President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Xi Jinping of China.

The only P5 member present was US President Joe Biden. Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, a country described as one of the world’s rising political and economic powers willing to lead the Global South, was also missing.

Picture: FP

Is there a hidden message here for the UN? And is the UN beginning to outlive its usefulness–politically?

Asked about the absence of four P-5 members of the Security Council, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was blunt when he told reporters: “I don’t think it is because we have or we have not a leader of a country that the high-level week is more relevant or less relevant. What’s important is the commitments that Governments are ready to make in relation to the SDGs, in relation to many other aspects of this week. So, this is not a vanity fair… What matters is not the presence of this or that leader. What matters is the commitment of the respective government in relation to the objectives of the summit.

Meanwhile, the reform of the UN – including the revitalization of the General Assembly, the increase in the number of permanent members of the Security Council and the lack of gender empowerment at the highest echelons of the UN hierarchy, with nine all-male Secretaries-General and only 4 women out of 78 presidents of the General Assembly – has been discussed for decades. But still these issues have never got off the ground. Or will they ever?

In an interview with IPS, Natalie Samarasinghe, Global Director, Advocacy, Open Society Foundations, said change is challenging at the UN. The organization is predicated on balancing principle with politics — and the former prevails only when it can be aligned with the latter. It has been subversive, supporting the fight against colonialism and apartheid, and helping the marginalized to advance their cause through development and human rights.

At the same time, it has helped to maintain the power structures of 1945. That is reflected in the UN’s priorities,programming and personnel. And this formula seems weaker now, with the UN now seemingly peripheral in the peace and security realm, and struggling to coordinate global responses to the shocks of recent years.

This does not mean the organization cannot change. Today’s UN would be unrecognisable to its founders: with its strong focus on sustainable development, nearly four times the number of member states, and bodies devoted to almost every dimension of human endeavour.

The UN’s charter does not mention the iconic blue helmets or UNICEF — perhaps the organization’s best-known ‘brand’, nor does it allude to the role of the Secretary-General as the world’s top diplomat. The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change and GAVI, the multistakeholder vaccine alliance — inconceivable seven decades ago — are further examples of the UN’s ability to adapt to new realities.

A wide view of the General Assembly Hall at the start of the Assembly’s seventy-first annual general debate.

Yet, other parts of the organization seem frozen in time, most obviously the Security Council. So, is change possible? It is depressing that the prospect of a female Secretary-General still feels remote, or that only four of the 78 presidents of the General Assembly have been women. This should not be our ceiling for reform but our floor.

We have regional rotation for positions. Why not gender rotation? This is surely as achievable a change as it is necessary.

The Security Council, meanwhile, is probably the least likely area of movement. But its gridlock — on substance and reform — has increased the appetite for the General Assembly to act as a counterweight to exclusive clubs.

The closest thing we have to a world parliament, the importance of the Assembly has grown as lower-income countries become increasingly frustrated at shouldering the brunt of global shocks without any real say in solutions.

This is part of a broader trend. At the UN, it encompasses improvements to the Secretary-General selection process in 2016, Liechtenstein’s success in ensuring that a Council veto automatically triggers a debate in the Assembly, and the Syria investigative mechanism.

But the real action is likely to be outside the New York. Leaders like Biden and Macron seem to have taken up the calls of Mottley, Akufo-Addo and others to reform the international financial architecture. The G20 in New Delhi echoed language in the Bridgetown Initiative and V20 Agenda on issues such as debt and access to capital.

All of this shows that we may have finally reached a point where smaller, more vulnerable countries can no longer tolerate the status quo, and where larger, richer countries realise that interdependence is not just a concept.

Q: At a press conference last month, Barbara Woodward, Britain’s ambassador to the UN, emphasized the “UK’s ambition to drive forward reform of the multilateral system,” saying, “We want to see expansion of the Council’s permanent seats to include India, Brazil, Germany, Japan and African representation.” But even if this proposal is adopted by the GA and the UNSC, it has to be followed up with an amendment to the UN charter. How arduous and long-drawn-out is the process of amending the charter?

A: Even in 1945, the composition of the Security Council was a compromise, with permanent membership and vetoes intended to encourage the five powers of the time to serve as guardians of the international order. That illusion was shattered before the ink had dried on the charter, as the Cold War cut short the organization’s honeymoon.

Today, our multipolar and polarised world is better described as a hot mess. Longstanding conflicts such as Palestine and Kashmir remain intractable, while crises pile up: Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Haiti, Myanmar, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine.

Some commentators argue that Russia’s wanton aggression is not the first time one of the five permanent members (P5) has invaded a country. Others adopt a reductionist view of the Council’s role: preventing conflict between the P5 rather than maintaining peace and security. But after 18 months of genocidal acts, it’s hard not to see it as emblematic of the UN’s failures and constraints.

Even areas where the UN previously banked successes are flagging. Most people go back two decades to Liberia or Sierra Leone when asked to cite successful peace operations. Until its collapse, the Black Sea grain deal was a rare example of mediation gone right.

Invariably, debates on how to strengthen the UN’s peace and security capacity focus on the Security Council. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, states including the US have been more vocal on the need for change. Yet renewed interest has not made reform more likely.

Procedurally, reform requires amending the UN charter. This needs approval by two-thirds of the General Assembly’s members and ratification by their legislatures, including the all of the P5. It has happened only once in relation to the Council (in 1965, when the number of members was raised from 11 to 15, and the voting threshold increased accordingly). Politically, one of the biggest hurdles is the lack of agreement within regions on who should get a seat.

Council reform is a prize worth pursuing — and one that merits more creativity, on the role of regional organisations, for instance. But it may be better to channel this energy into how to leverage the collective power of the UN system as a whole.

From sanctions to investigations, there is much more the General Assembly could do on peace and security, including by building on Liechtenstein’s proposal. The Peacebuilding Commission, too, could become more central, for example by bringing in actors such as the international financial institutions. And it is worth looking at how mediation could be done differently, with more resources and a more diverse pool of negotiators.

Q: Civil society organizations (CSOs) have played a significant role in UN’s mandate to provide international peace and security, protect human rights and deliver humanitarian aid. Has the UN given CSOs, their rightful place?

A: Over 200 civil society organizations were at the birth of the UN. Their presence helped to secure references in the Charter to human rights, gender equality and social justice.

Seventy-eight years on, thousands will come to New York for the opening of the General Assembly. Even more work with the UN every day, as its development and humanitarian activities have mushroomed. These areas now account for over 70 percent of its funds and roughly two-thirds of its staff.

But many CSOs engage from the sidelines. Only a fraction will be allowed into UN Headquarters, while those on the ground often face steep barriers to cooperation. For all the talk about partnerships, a similar situation exists for other actors, from local governments to business.

This ignores that perhaps the most profound transformation of the ‘‘international community’ in recent decades has not been geopolitical realignment but the rise of non-state actors.

We live in a world where private sector profits eclipse GDP, where social movements can mobilise millions of people, and influencers can wipe out billions with a single post; and where a girl sitting outside her school with a sign can change the global conversation. And yet the international system remains stubbornly state-centric.

Instead, partnerships should be the norm. CSOs are critical to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and addressing climate change. They provide essential assistance in humanitarian crises and step into the breach in conflict zones. They stand up for those who are ignored and abused, serving both as the UN’s partners and its conscience.

Their contributions should be valued and harnessed, through a high-level champion for civil society, greater resourcing of grassroots groups; and an overarching strategy for engagement. As concerns around legitimacy and power grow, this strategy should include a gradual transfer of the UN’s development and humanitarian functions to local partners.

This would foster a greater sense of ownership, agency and accountability. It could also breathe new life into the SDGs. From the UN’s vantage point, it would help to alleviate the unsustainable growth in its workload, free up limited resources and mitigate the incompatibility on the ground of various functions it is expected to perform – political, humanitarian, development and human rights.

Such a move is likely to meet with considerable resistance, including from inside the UN. It is easier to cite the number schools built or refugees rescued as evidence of success, especially when geopolitical tensions make advances in areas such as norm-setting and mediation more challenging.

But it is precisely in those areas where the UN is most needed: functions that cannot easily be fulfilled by others — even with two regional organisations on board, the G20 is not the G193; and where it is uniquely placed to make a difference — from emergency coordination to global solidarity.

That should be the guiding spirit leading up to next year’s Summit of the Future: a realistic task list for the UN, greater responsibility for partners, and higher ambition for the world’s people.

(Natalie Samarasinghe has also served as CEO of the United Nations Association – UK, becoming the first woman appointed to that role; she was speechwriter to the 73rd President of the General Assembly; and chief of strategy for the UN’s 75th-anniversary initiative.

A frequent commentator on UN issues, she has edited publications on sustainable development, climate change and conflict; written for Routledge and OUP on human rights; and co-edited the SAGE Major Work on the UN. She has also supported a number of civil society coalitions, including the 1 for 7 Billion campaign to improve the Secretary-General selection process, which she co-founded. IPS UN Bureau Report)

G-20 Establish Mechanism to Monitor Incidents of Hate, Targeted Violence

The G20 New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration, which was agreed on Saturday (9 September), reiterated the group’s commitment to promoting respect for all religions and condemned all acts of religious hatred, including those committed against holy texts and symbols.

The declaration noted the July 25 United Nations General Assembly resolution on “promoting interreligious and intercultural dialogue and tolerance in countering hate speech” and stated: “In this regard, we strongly deplore all acts of religious hatred against persons, as well as those of a symbolic nature without prejudice to domestic legal frameworks, including against religious and holy books.”

Narender Nagarwal, who teaches Law at the Delhi University, while speaking on the G-20 joint declaration, said, “I do believe that the G20 New Delhi declaration of September 9, 2023, which denounces all forms of discrimination, hatred, and violence towards vulnerable ethnic groups, is a remarkable accomplishment of the conference. The G20 countries have always been at the forefront in tackling global issues, and the New Delhi Conference of world leaders has reinforced its commitment to confronting targeted violence and hatred on the basis of religion, caste or language against minorities as a critical issue that demands immediate attention and action.”

He added, “This declaration is a clear indication of the Group of 20’s collective determination to combat all hate crimes, including Islamophobic violence, against minorities. I welcome this initiative of the leading players of global politics and treat the declaration as a powerful message to those who overtly or covertly instigate Islamophobic hatred and other sorts of bigotry against ethnic and vulnerable groups.”

On the way forward, Nagarwal urged the G-20 leaders by saying, “I would appreciate if the G-20 secretariat established an observatory commission to investigate reports of hate and targeted violence against ethnic and vulnerable groups and submit progress reports to member states on a regular basis. The adoption of collective action sends a powerful message of unity, solidarity, and hope to the people of Indian society who have endured the burdens of hate crimes, discrimination and Islamophobic violence for far too long.”

Michael Williams, founder and president of the United Christians Forum, said, “Religious tolerance has been a part of the UN Charter, the Indian Constitution, and now our Prime Minister has reiterated this in the G20 Joint Declaration. I only hope that Mr. Modi will ensure its speedy implementation akin to the Demonetisation urgency and will continue to see it through like the GST policy.”

Williams added, “Prime Minister must ensure that anyone who indulges in hate speeches, religious violence, and religious bullying are brought to account so that such Joint Declarations actually have meaning and impact on the lives of citizens. They say that the road to hell is paved with good intentions, but, with true implementation, this intent of the Summit is something India needs right now.”

Dr. Prem Chand, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, ARSD College, University of Delhi, observed: “Unity in Diversity is not only a line but it is the virtue which is inherently reflected in each aspect of our great country India. Historically and culturally, India has been nurtured by different religions and cultures. The spirit of the Constitution of India is secular and secularism is being practised by the India Government. Religious freedom is one of the fundamental rights given by the Constituent Assembly of India to its Citizens. In this backdrop it’s a welcome step that G20 agenda has deplored the religious hatred and considered equality of all religions.”

Dr. Prem Chand added, “India is a multi-religious country but unfortunately some political parties are doing communal politics and they divide people only to grab power. In this scenario India should respect what is inherited and keep it to the values of the Constitution of India.”

John Dayal, a noted social and human rights activist, opined: “G-20 was sitting at a time when religious discord, sponsored mostly by ruling groups in India and in most other countries, have brought the world to the brink. Many Peoples Summits preceding G-20 had, in their call to put people first, highlighted the threat to the world leaders, it seems, successfully prevented any discussion on this issue. It was not high on the agenda anyway.”

Dayal said, “Big countries have lost whatever moral authority they ever had in naming and shaming regimes with a track record of religious bigotry and ill treatment of minorities. Apart from their own records in condoning the burning of the Qur’ān, for instance, in several European cities, the G-20 have turned a blind eye to infringements and absolute ignoring of the United Nations Charter and its focus on religious freedom and freedom of expression as the core values of a shared humanity.”

G20 Summit 2023 In India Discusses Sustainable Development and More

The G20, or Group of Twenty, is a coalition of nations that convenes regularly to deliberate on global economic and political matters. Together, these G20 countries contribute to a staggering 85% of the world’s economic output and over 75% of worldwide trade, housing two-thirds of the global population. Comprising the EU and 19 individual nations, including Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the UK, and the US, the G20 holds a unique position on the world stage.

Established in 1999, the G20 emerged in response to the Asian financial crisis with the primary goal of providing finance ministers and officials a platform to strategize methods for restoring economic stability. In 2008, the group elevated its stature, hosting its inaugural leaders’ summit as a response to the global financial turmoil that year, with the aim of promoting international cooperation.

In recent years, the G20 has widened its purview, incorporating subjects like climate change and sustainable energy into its discussions. Each year, one of the G20 member states takes on the presidency and sets the agenda for the leaders’ summit.

The 2023 G20 summit, presided over by India, will spotlight critical topics such as sustainable development, the pursuit of just and equitable global growth, and debt forgiveness for developing countries. Additionally, US President Joe Biden is expected to engage with leaders from developing nations to propose reforms for the World Bank, potentially unlocking more funds for infrastructure development and climate change mitigation.

Picture : AlJazeera

Crucially, much of the negotiation and diplomacy will occur behind the scenes, in one-on-one meetings between leaders held on the sidelines of the main summit hall. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi intends to use the summit as a platform to elevate his country’s global standing and establish himself as a significant world leader, particularly in the run-up to the spring 2024 general election. Modi is keen to ensure that the summit doesn’t get bogged down in disputes over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which marred the 2022 summit in Bali, Indonesia. Discord around this issue even prevented the issuance of a joint statement following the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Delhi in March.

Remarkably, both Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and China’s President Xi Jinping will be absent from the summit. Putin will be represented by his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, while China will send Premier Li Qiang in Xi’s stead.

Aside from the Ukraine conflict, other contentious matters could emerge at the summit. In May 2023, China and Saudi Arabia boycotted a G20 meeting on tourism held in Indian-administered Kashmir, as this region includes territory claimed by both Pakistan and India. Another source of tension has arisen between India and China after Beijing published a map asserting Chinese ownership of Arunachal Pradesh and the Aksai Chin plateau, both disputed territories. The US has urged China to put aside its differences with India and adopt a “constructive role” at the summit.

The G20 has experienced varying degrees of success since its inception. During the 2008 and 2009 leaders’ summits, held in the midst of the financial crisis, leaders reached consensus on numerous measures to salvage the global economic system. However, critics argue that subsequent summits have been less productive, often due to discord between rival global powers. Nevertheless, the one-on-one meetings between leaders have frequently yielded positive outcomes. For instance, at the 2019 summit in Osaka, then-US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concurred to recommence talks to resolve a major trade dispute.

Security is always a paramount concern at G20 summits, given their propensity to attract anti-globalization protests. The Indian government has taken extensive security measures ahead of the Delhi event, including road closures around the venue and deploying 130,000 security personnel across the city. Unique measures have also been introduced to deter troublesome monkeys from disrupting the summit, as Delhi has a substantial monkey population that authorities wish to keep at bay.

The 2023 G20 summit promises to be a pivotal event, with India at the helm emphasizing sustainable development, equitable global growth, and debt relief for developing nations. While the specter of the Ukraine conflict looms, leaders will engage in discreet discussions to address a range of pressing issues, including World Bank reform and climate change.

The absence of key leaders like Putin and Xi adds an intriguing dimension to the proceedings. However, the G20’s track record, marked by both achievements and challenges, underscores the importance of these high-level diplomatic gatherings in shaping the global agenda. Amidst stringent security measures and innovative tactics to deal with local fauna, the world will be watching closely as the G20 nations convene to chart the course of the global economy and address pressing international concerns.

G20 In New Delhi, A Milestone For India, US Leadership

Xi Jinping’s decision to stay away from the Group of 20 summit may have been intended to deny India its moment. Instead, Prime Minister Narendra Modi — along with the U.S. and Europe — figured out how to more effectively counter China on the world stage.

Fellow G20 nations hailed India’s success in reaching an agreement on a joint communiqué that remained in doubt just days before world leaders gathered in New Delhi for their most significant annual diplomatic event. Apart from finding consensus on Russia’s war in Ukraine, the most difficult issue, they also elevated the African Union as a full G20 member and took action on issues like climate change and debt sustainability that are priorities of emerging markets.

The final outcome irked Ukraine, which saw the compromise on war language as weaker than what leaders produced just 10 months ago in Bali, Indonesia. But for the U.S. and its allies, criticism of a communiqué that on substance was similar to Bali and has little impact on the ground is a small price to pay for giving Modi a win that bolsters India’s status as a rising power capable of blunting China’s global influence.

U.S. President Joe Biden led the charge, seeing in India his administration’s best hope of isolating China and Russia — and providing a booster shot to the U.S.-led world order. The result showed that Washington is finally learning the language of the so-called Global South, with India as its principle guide.

“Some commentators are pointing to watered-down language on Russia-Ukraine as a sign of Western ‘climbdown,’” said Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “But there’s another way of looking at it: The West is also invested in making sure India got a win. A lack of consensus would have been a huge disappointment for India.”

If there was a moment that illustrated the summit dynamics, it was Biden’s meeting on Saturday to discuss White House-led efforts to deliver more financing to developing nations.

Along with World Bank President Ajay Banga, the first Indian American to hold the role, Biden was pictured with Modi, Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa — key members of the BRICS grouping, minus China and Russia. That bloc expanded earlier this month, posing a challenge for the Group of Seven advanced economies.

Earlier in the day, U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer swiped at China by referring to those nations as “the three democratic members of the BRICS,” saying they and the U.S. were all committed to the G20’s success. “And if China is not, that’s unfortunate for everyone,” Finer said. “But much more unfortunate, we believe, for China.”

And the U.S. didn’t stop there. It separately announced a deal with India, the European Union, Saudi Arabia, Israel and other Middle Eastern countries to develop an ambitious rail and maritime network across the region. Biden hailed it as a “game-changing regional investment,” cementing the deal with a three-way handshake that included Modi and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who the U.S. president had cast as a “pariah” ahead of the last American election.

That kind of pronouncement is more likely to appeal to Middle East interests than badgering over human rights, even if the project’s time line and funding remains vague. The U.S. denied it was meant to counter China’s growing influence in the Gulf, but a French official acknowledged it was designed to provide competition for Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), saying that wasn’t a bad thing.

“I want to see China succeed economically,” Biden told reporters Sunday in Hanoi, Vietnam, where he flew after the G20. “But I want to see them succeed by the rules.”

Xi’s move to skip the G20 summit for the first time since he became president in 2013 marked a shift in behavior from last November, when he cast himself as a statesman with a responsibility to “get along with other countries.” China’s negotiators also risked appearing petty in looking to thwart India’s progress, taking a stand on minor issues like Modi’s use of a Sanskrit phrase and the U.S.’s bid to host the G20 gathering in 2026. The Global Times, a newspaper affiliated with the Communist Party, called the U.S. “just a copycat” for its Mideast infrastructure plan.

In a further blow to Beijing, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told Premier Li Qiang on the sidelines of the summit that her nation plans to withdraw from the BRI while still looking to maintain friendly relations, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named. At a press conference after the G20, Meloni said she spoke to Li, representing China in Xi’s absence, about the BRI but a decision had yet to be made.

Going into the summit, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak accused China of acting as a brake on progress toward a joint statement. At one point in the deliberations behind closed doors, Beijing raised the issue of access to semiconductors in a discussion of climate action, people familiar with the talks said. That prompted National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan — a leading advocate of U.S. export controls on chips and chip technology to China — to decry “the idea of holding climate hostage” to unrelated issues.

China’s Li told leaders that the G20 “needs unity instead of division, cooperation instead of confrontation,” the official Xinhua News Agency reported. That followed a commentary posted hours earlier by a Chinese think tank affiliated with the country’s top spy agency, which criticized India for having “sabotaged the atmosphere for cooperation” at the G20 by pushing its own agenda.

But China relented on its opposition to the communiqué, and India drew praise from all camps for negotiating a compromise. People familiar with the discussions said the breakthrough occurred after India, Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa jointly put forward a proposal on language describing the war.

“This consensus itself shows the cemented role of India as a trustworthy fulcrum of a world bitterly divided on geopolitical issues like the Ukraine war,” said Swasti Rao, an associate fellow at the Europe and Eurasia Center at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses. “There is little doubt that middle order powers wish to keep the global economic order multipolar and not fall into the Chinese game of dominating it.”

While the final language on Ukraine made some U.S. allies uneasy, supporting the compromise presented a bigger opportunity to align more closely with major democracies in the Global South that ultimately serve as key swing nations when it comes to Russia’s war and other world issues. G7 leaders publicly praised the outcome, with Sunak insisting that the language adopted was “very strong” and that “Russia is completely isolated.”

‘Just and durable’

For the U.S., any move that bolsters India and amplifies other democracies in the Global South helps to counter China and Russia’s influence, particularly when it comes to bringing about the G20’s call for a “comprehensive, just and durable peace” in Ukraine. Back in May at the G7 summit in Japan, the U.S. and its allies struggled to convince Modi, Lula and Indonesia’s Joko Widodo to side with them on Ukraine, even after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made a surprise appearance. Zelenskiy wasn’t invited to address India’s G20.

A senior European Union official said the agreement effectively saved the G20 as the last global forum bringing together the world’s major powers. Moreover, the official said, it helped bridge the gap between the G-7 and emerging markets, who would now be partners in holding Russia to account if it doesn’t follow through on seeking a just peace in line with UN principles.

Other senior European officials said China shot itself in the foot by staying away from the summit, allowing India to cement its leadership of the Global South and providing the U.S. and Europe a clear path to strengthen ties with emerging markets.

Even Russia, represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov after Vladimir Putin stayed home, saw the agreement as a win. Moscow was pleased that BRICS democracies served as interlocutors with the G7, according to a person familiar with the situation, underscoring China’s status as an outsider looking in.

The U.S., of course, could yet stumble in its bid to appeal more to the Global South. Ahead of the G20, Biden skipped a summit in Indonesia hosted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a move that appeared like a snub to Widodo. The U.S. president sought to do damage control in Delhi, meeting the Indonesian leader briefly and pledging to meet him at the White House in November, when world leaders head to the U.S. for the APEC summit.

More significantly, however, was India’s ability to grasp the moment to assert a global leadership role. Modi — who is on pace to extend his decade in power next year — declared that “history has been created” while his chief negotiator, Amitabh Kant, called India “the spokesperson of all the Global South.”

“More than anything else, it has amplified the voice of Global South,” Kant said of the summit outcome. “It has also demonstrated that India has a huge capacity of bringing the world together and leading the world. (TIME.COM)

US Praises India For Unanimous G20 Joint Declaration Balancing North South Interests

The US conceded space to the host India in the wording of the final Delhi Declaration of G20 on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and lauded Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s diplomatic skills that virtually represented a coup as the final document came out despite fractures in the group.

The declaration earned the praise of the US.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan called the statement a “significant milestone for India’s chairmanship and a vote of confidence that the G20 can come together to address a pressing range of issues.”

“The G20 statement includes a set of consequential paragraphs on the war in Ukraine. And from our perspective, it does a very good job of standing up for the principle that states cannot use force to seek territorial acquisition,” Sullivan  told newspersons.

Still, the language differed from last year’s G20 declaration, which stated “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine.” So, in a way, it was a diplomatic coup for India as the host country took a softer line than the Bali G20 one by not calling it a war but saying,  “All states must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition.”

US and western nations wanted stronger language to condemn the aggression on Ukraine as they succeeded in the Bali G20 conference. The Russian invasion was described as a war in the declaration then.

Picture : Sakshi Post

The softer tone in the Delhi declaration showed that US and western allies yielded space to India, the host country, to word it differently which still had the same effect but also gave India the leverage with its long term ally Russia, whose leader Vladimir Putin did not attend, balancing its equations with US and Russia at the same time – a feat pilled of by the foreign office officials under foreign minister S Jaishankar along with trusted allies .

Russia, as a member of the G20, would have to agree on any consensus statement on Ukraine. Russia and China had resisted stronger language in a final statement, making any kind of agreement difficult. No G20 summit has concluded without a joint declaration of some type, media reports said.

Leaders gathered here for the annual Group of 20 summit managed to agree on a joint statement laying out shared views on climate change and economic development but showed the fractures within the group by stopping short of explicitly condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, CNN reported .

Diplomats virtually burnt the midnight oil to sort out what sort of language and phraseography the final draft  joint statement required in the lead-up to the summit . Anticipating snags, Indian foreign office officials along with its allies managed to play down the Ukraine situation as a war.

The eventual compromise statement amounted to a coup for the summit’s host, Prime Minister Modi, but still reflected a position far softer than those the US and its Western allies have adopted individually, CNN reported.

US President Joe Biden’s hopes of convincing the world’s largest economies to rally behind Ukraine during his two-night stay in India for the summit did not bear fruit in the way he wanted, but he still liked the final wording. He also pressed his case for American investment in the developing world.

Even as the summit was midway through on Saturday, the leaders agreed to the joint declaration acknowledging the situation in Ukraine while not papering over the group’s major divides on the issue.

“All states must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition,” the declaration read, without explicitly singling out Russia for its invasion. The document also stated opposition to the use of nuclear weapons and highlighted the economic effects of the war in an indirect reference to Putin’s threat of using nuclear weapons if NATO allies intervened militarily to help Ukraine.

In a reflection of the deep fractures among the G20 nations, the statement acknowledged “there were different views and assessments of the situation”, US media reports noted.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko however criticised the declaration. Kiev was not invited by India to the G20 summit.

“Ukraine is grateful to its partners who tried to include strong wording in the text,” he wrote on Facebook. “At the same time, the G20 has nothing to be proud of in the part about Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Obviously, the participation of the Ukrainian side would have allowed the participants to better understand the situation. The principle of ‘nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine’ remains as key as ever,” media reports said.

The absence of Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin – US President Biden’s arch rivals –  provided opportunities for Biden to make a more affirmative case at the summit, White House officials said during the summit.

Biden said Saturday he would have welcomed the presence of his Chinese counterpart at the summit, but that positive outcomes were still possible. “It would be nice to have him here but, no, the summit is going well,” Biden said when questioned about the impact of Xi’s absence.

Biden hoped to leverage on the two leaders absence at the summit to portray the US as a credible counterweight to China’s economic outreach.He announced new plans partnering Europe, the Middle East and Asia to construct a major new transit corridor connecting the regions, thus challenging Beijing’s own efforts at expanding global trade with its belt road initiatives.

“India calls upon the world to come together to transform the global trust deficit into one of trust and reliance. This is the time for all of us to move together,” Prime Minister Modi said as the gathering got underway.

“Be it the divide between North and South, the distance between the East and West, management of food and fuel, terrorism, cyber security, health, energy or water security, we must find a solid solution to this for future generations,” he emphasised. It was a message of unity at a markedly fractured moment for the grouping, the US media observed.

While Biden enjoyed success at other summits convincing European leaders and NATO allies to step up their military support for Ukraine and tighten their punishment of Russia, many nations, particularly in the Global South, weren’t  convinced. They viewed the billions of dollars in Western assistance pouring into Ukraine sceptically, and sought a more balanced relationship with Moscow, CNN said.

Biden’s aides claimed the president welcomed the opportunity to make the case for Ukraine, including to audiences that aren’t necessarily on the same page. “Part of what makes the G20 an appealing format for the United States is it gives us a chance to interact with and work with and take constructive steps with a wider range of countries, including some, frankly, that we don’t see eye to eye with on every issue,” US deputy national security adviser Jon Finer told reporters on Saturday.

G20 Leaders Declaration adopted in New Delhi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi while addressing the second session of the G20 Leaders Summit, announced that the leaders declaration has been officially adopted by the member states at the New Delhi Summit.

“There is good news. With everyone’s cooperation, consensus has been reached on New Delhi G20 Leadership Declaration…I announce the adoption of this declaration,” PM Modi told the gathering amid loud applause.

The official document contains 112 outcomes on various developmental and geo-political issues. It mainly focuses on Strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive Growth; Accelerating progress on SDGs; Green development pact for a sustainable future; Multilateral institutions for the 21st Century and Reinvigorating multilateralism.

“The #NewDelhiLeadersDeclaration has been officially adopted at the #G20India Leaders’ Summit! Today’s era must be marked as the golden age of human-centric globalisation & India’s G20 Presidency under the leadership of PM @narendramodi has worked tirelessly towards this goal,” G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant wrote on X.

In the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, the declaration reads, “Concerning the war in Ukraine, while recalling the discussion in Bali, we reiterated our national positions and resolutions adopted at the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly and underscored that all states must act in a manner consistent with the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter in its entirety. In line with the UN Charter, all states must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition against the territorial integrity and sovereignty or political independence of any state. The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible.”

Drawing on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s earlier statement that ” Today’s era must not be one of war,” the declaration states that all member states will work together to mitigate the war’s negative impact on the global economy and welcome all relevant and constructive initiatives that support a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace in Ukraine.

Canada PM Justin Trudeau To Visit India For G20 Summit

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will visit India to attend the G20 Summit in New Delhi from September 9 to 10, where he will join fellow world leaders to engage in discussions on global economic and political matters.. Prior to his visit to New Delhi, Trudeau will travel to Indonesia to participate in the ASEAN Summit and thereafter head to Singapore for a bilateral visit.

“The Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, today announced that he will travel to Jakarta, Indonesia to participate in the ASEAN Summit from September 5 to 6, 2023. This will be followed by a bilateral visit to Singapore from September 7 to 8, 2023. He will then participate in the G20 Summit in New Delhi, India, from September 9 to 10, 2023,” Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement.

The G20 Summit comprises 19 countries, collectively representing 85% of the world’s GDP, two-thirds of its population, and 75% of global trade. This summit serves as a vital platform for prominent world leaders to come together with a shared aim of fostering global economic cooperation. Operating under the theme ‘One Earth – One Family – One Future,’ the summit seeks to address global challenges and work toward a better tomorrow for people worldwide. During his visit, Prime Minister Trudeau aims to bolster bilateral relations between Canada and India.

At the G20 Summit in New Delhi, Trudeau will work with international partners to tackle global crises to build a better tomorrow for people around the world. He will promote the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in his role as co-chair of the SDG Advocates group.

Canada Prime Minister’s Office in the statement said, “Canada is, and will always be, a champion of the rules-based international order, and the global trade and economic progress that depend on those rules. Russia’s brutal war of aggression in Ukraine is an attack on the rules that all countries rely on to do business, trade, grow, and improve life for their citizens.”

It further said, “That’s why, at the G20, Prime Minister Trudeau will continue to advocate for collective action to hold Putin accountable for his illegal war and to secure a just and durable peace that starts with Russia’s immediate withdrawal from Ukraine. Working collaboratively to tackle global crises while holding Russia accountable is essential to maintaining the integrity and effectiveness of the G20.”

Biden Arrives In India For G20 Summit

US President Joe Biden will travel to India on Thursday to attend the G20 summit. He will also have a meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on the sidelines of the summit, the White House has announced.

India, President of G20, will host global leaders at the summit, which will take place on September 9 and 10 in New Delhi. On Thursday (September 7), the US President will travel to New Delhi to attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit, the White House said in a statement.

On September 8, he will participate in a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Modi. On Saturday and Sunday, Biden will participate in the G20 summit, where the US President and G20 partners will discuss a range of joint efforts to tackle global issues, including clean energy transition and combating climate change.

Picture : The Guardian

They will also discuss ways to mitigate the economic and social impact of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and increase the capacity of multilateral development banks, including World Bank, to better fight poverty and address global challenges.

The President will participate in the G20 Summit on Saturday and Sunday where he and G20 partners will discuss a range of joint efforts to tackle global issues which include clean energy transition and combating climate change.

They will also mitigate the economic and social impacts of Russia’s war in Ukraine and boost the capacity of multilateral development banks, including the World Bank, to better fight poverty, including by addressing global challenges, the White House said.

“While in New Delhi, the President will also commend Prime Minister Modi’s leadership of the G20 and reaffirm the US commitment to the G20 as the premier forum of economic cooperation, including by hosting it in 2026,” it added.

Earlier, amid the reports of Chinese President Xi Jinping skipping the G20 Summit in New Delhi, Biden had said that he hoped that Xi would attend the meeting in India.

While in New Delhi, the US President will reaffirm the United States’ commitment to the G20 as the premier forum of economic cooperation. The G20 or Group of 20 is an intergovernmental forum of the world’s major developed and developing economies.

The United States will host the summit in 2026.

Will BRICS Create A New Balance In The Global Order?

If BRICS can truly identify issues of larger common interest and move forward on the basis of consensus, it can become the new leader of the post-Western world order where the NDB will be the primary competitor of the World Bank and IMF.

The collapse of the Soviet Union brought about a dramatic social and economic restructuring that had numerous long-lasting impacts on both the global economy and the population. At that time, the nations that held the titles of “Great Power” and “Super Power” used different tricks to establish their own Shadow Governance over the undeveloped, least-developed, and developing nations. Radical institutionalism supported this neo-colonialism as well. Some international organizations have, by their policies and actions, used developing countries as pawns in imperialist geopolitics, where the sovereignty of weak governments was in jeopardy and their freedom of statehood was constrained.

Picture : China Daily

The BRICS ((Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) – which is having its 15th summit August 22-24 in Johannesburg – has emerged in this context with the goal of establishing a new global balance through leadership in a world torn apart by geopolitical conflict, inequality, and insecurity. The grouping’s primary and secondary goals are to create a sustainable and alternative financial lending system, with the potential to coalesce into a platform that echoes the concerns of the Global South. In the distant future, it might take on the role of promoting and regulating a more balanced world order.

Particularly impressive are the bloc’s integrated fiscal policies and strategies in the fields of trade and investment. The New Development Bank (NDB), which was established with an initial capital of $100 billion, heralds the financial potential of the BRICS. In 2021, the group contributed 31.5 per cent of the global GDP, amounting to $26.03 trillion, surpassing that of the G7 (30.7per cent). The bloc is expected to contribute more than 50% of the world’s GDP by 2030, and the bloc’s intended expansion will likely accelerate this trend.

The use of unilateral economic coercive measures like boycotts, embargos, and sanctions as well as the global economic depression brought on by the COVID pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war have increased the relevance of the BRICS, particularly for emerging economies. It is quite likely that the New Development Bank (NDB) will weaken the monopolistic dominance of the World Bank and the IMF as it finances infrastructure projects, regional connectivity initiatives, and sustainable development programs in member countries.

Economic decentralisation strategy

The bank’s smartest innovation, in my opinion, is the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA), whose main function is to protect member countries from global liquidity stress and to provide liquidity support during challenging economic times.

Apart from the financial safety net, it is important to examine the member nations’ interconnected populations, vast territories, rapidly expanding economies, and capacity for strategic autonomy when evaluating the geopolitical possibilities of the BRICS. Anil Sooklal, South Africa’s top diplomat to the bloc, said more than 40 countries have expressed their interest in joining BRICS, including all the major Global South nations. If the new members are accepted, the total population of the BRICS countries—which currently stands at 3.42 billion, or 42 per cent of the world’s population—will increase to over 3.95 billion, or over 50 per cent of the world’s population.

The economic decentralization strategy to create a multipolar world has given BRICS salience and popularity. The alliance is understood to respect the economic independence of the member countries, as stated in the leaders’ initial statement and action plan. Additionally, the NDB will release at least 30 per cent of loans in the member states’ own currencies as opposed to US dollars, which will play a crucial role in safeguarding the countries’ reserves.

The BRICS members have access to the biggest market thanks to China, a crucial partner of this bloc. For instance, as consumer goods exporting countries, Russia and Brazil would sell their products to China, a consumer goods importing nation. A new BRICS-centered market system will emerge from this commercial interaction, and the adoption of its own currency will lessen the influence of the dollar in the global financial system.

In addition to their economic activity, the BRICS countries are working together on coordinated projects in the areas of climate change, defense, education, energy, and health security. Currently, BRICS countries are emphasizing the clean energy transition. The International Energy Agency reports that China and India are aggressively investing in solar and wind energy. As a result, they are able to simultaneously safeguard their international climate pledges while also reducing their reliance on imports and energy costs.

A new leader of post-Western world?

The collective aim is to create a more just and equitable global order, according to BRICS leaders. It is obvious that if member nations view one another as allies, they have a bright possibility of sharing expertise and mutual assistance in a variety of disciplines, including defense, education, health, and climate.

However, BRICS is facing certain challenges along the way, which could prove to be significant roadblocks to their success. Western scholars believe that the diverse financial and governance systems of the group’s members, historical geopolitical rivalry, and India’s perceived West-centric policies may create an unfavorable atmosphere for the alliance’s future cohesion and growth.

If BRICS can truly identify issues of larger common interest and move forward on the basis of consensus, it can become the new leader of the post-Western world order where the NDB will be the primary competitor of the World Bank and IMF. As a result, a balanced, autonomous, and libertarian global order can truly emerge.

Read more at: https://www.southasiamonitor.org/spotlight/will-brics-create-new-balance-global-order (The author is a strategic affairs analyst in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Views are personal. He can be contacted at kamalmazumderju@gmail.com)

Firearm-Related Deaths Concentrate In The Americas

In a comprehensive study, it has been revealed that a significant portion of firearm-related fatalities in the year 2016 were concentrated in six nations located in the Americas. These nations include Brazil, the United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala. The findings underscore the critical issue of gun violence as a severe public health crisis, prompting a need for heightened awareness and intervention. The study, which assessed mortality data from 1990 to 2016 across 195 countries and territories globally, spotlighted the grave impact of gun-related incidents on communities.

Brazil stood out with the highest number of gun-related deaths, with over 43,000 individuals losing their lives due to firearm injuries in 2016. The United States followed closely, reporting 37,200 gun-related deaths during the same period. Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala were among the countries with the highest gun death tolls. Collectively, these six nations accounted for a staggering 50.5% of the quarter-million firearm-related deaths in 2016. This statistic encompasses various causes of gun fatalities, including homicides, suicides, and accidental injuries.

CDC

Dr. Mohsen Naghavi, the lead author of the study, emphasized the magnitude of the gun violence crisis, stating, “Gun violence is one of the greatest public health crises of our time.” This statement was made upon the study’s release in August of that year. The study’s focus on a wide range of countries and territories offered insights into the global prevalence of firearm-related deaths.

Delving into regional trends, the study pinpointed El Salvador as the country with the highest gun death rate per 100,000 inhabitants in 2016. The complexities of the Latin American region’s high homicide and violent crime rates are multifaceted, varying across different locales. For instance, a 2016 report from the Inter-American Development Bank identified four key factors influencing crime rates in the region’s cities: economic deprivation, residential instability, disruptions in family structures, school absenteeism, and demographic composition, as well as alcohol consumption.

The study unearthed that nearly two-thirds of global gun deaths in 2016 resulted from homicides, while slightly over a quarter were attributed to suicides, and less than 10% were categorized as accidental injuries due to firearms. This underscores the predominant role of homicides in contributing to firearm-related fatalities. A striking observation was that in 2016, nearly 90% of those killed by guns were men. Moreover, the age group most affected by firearm-related deaths was individuals aged 20 to 24. This demographic experienced the highest number of fatalities, with young men constituting the majority of victims.

Assessing whether the situation had improved over time, the study presented a nuanced perspective. While the absolute number of deaths from firearm injuries increased from 209,000 in 1990 to 251,000 in 2016, there was a slight decrease in the overall death rate during the same period. However, except for 1994 – the year of the Rwandan genocide – firearm-related deaths consistently surpassed deaths caused by global conflict and terrorism in every other year. The sobering reality of nearly 700 daily deaths resulting from firearm-related injuries underscores the pressing need for substantial progress in curbing gun violence.

The study’s revelations highlight the concentrated nature of firearm-related deaths in a handful of countries in the Americas. This pattern underscores the urgent need for comprehensive interventions to address the alarming public health crisis posed by gun violence. The study’s global scope further emphasizes the significance of this issue across different regions and cultures. While incremental progress has been made, the high prevalence of firearm-related deaths, especially among young men, necessitates sustained efforts to create safer communities worldwide.

Explaining the Hindu divide at the Parliament of the World’s Religions

It shouldn’t be hard to see why fusing of religious and national identity causes anxiety and fear.

BRICS Expands From 5 To 11 Nations

Leaders of the BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — decided last week to expand the grouping and admit six new members. Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia and Argentina will become part of BRICS with effect from January 1, 2024.

BRICS expands from 5 to 11, Modi says it’s a message to all global bodies

There are about 23 countries which have formally applied so far for membership of the grouping.

At a joint media briefing in Johannesburg, South African President and Summit host Cyril Ramaphosa, along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, said, “We have consensus on the first phase of this BRICS expansion process…

“We have decided to invite Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to become full members of BRICS.  We value the interests of other countries in building partnership with BRICS and have tasked our Foreign Ministers to further develop the BRICS partnership model and list of prospective countries (which want to join the grouping),” Ramaphosa said.

FP

He said the decision on the new members was agreed upon after firming up the guiding principles, criteria and procedure for the expansion process. There are about 23 countries which have formally applied so far for membership of the grouping.

Prime Minister Modi, in a tweet, said, “On the occasion of the 15th anniversary of BRICS, we have taken the decision to expand this forum. India has always fully supported this expansion. Such an expansion will make BRICS stronger and more effective. In that spirit, India welcomes Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE into the BRICS family.”

He said the “expansion and modernisation” of BRICS is a message that all institutions in the world need to mould themselves according to changing times.

“India has always fully supported the expansion of the BRICS membership. India has been of the view that the addition of new members will further strengthen BRICS as an organisation, and give a new impetus to all our common endeavours,” he said.

Modi said the decision to expand the bloc will further strengthen the faith of many countries in the multipolar world order.

The BRICS, in its declaration, said, “We have decided to invite the Argentine Republic, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to become full members of BRICS from 1 January 2024.”

The grouping was formed in September 2006 and it originally comprised Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC). It was renamed as BRICS after South Africa was accepted as a full member in September 2010.

At present, the BRICS represents 41 per cent of the global population, 24 per cent of the global GDP and 16 per cent of the global trade.

Chinese President Xi described the expansion of BRICS as a “new starting point” for cooperation in the grouping. “It will bring new vigour to the BRICS cooperation mechanism, further strengthening a force for world peace and development,” he said.

Speaking via virtual mode, Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed the expansion.

Ramaphosa said, “Through this Summit, BRICS has embarked on a new chapter in its effort to build a world that is fair, a world that is just, a world that is also inclusive and prosperous.”

He said the BRICS is ready to explore opportunities for improving the “stability, reliability and fairness of the global financial architecture”.

This strategic move aims to bolster the economic prowess and global influence of the BRICS bloc, countering the influence of the United States and its Western allies. The expansion carries noteworthy implications in terms of augmenting trade participation and political representation for the member nations. Notably, India stands to gain from this expansion due to its escalating prominence within the group.

This expansion, however, raises pertinent questions about the bloc’s political aspirations and its capacity to effectively advocate for the interests of the Global South. The inclusion of the six new members underscores the BRICS’ evolving nature, potentially shifting its initial economic focus towards broader geopolitical ambitions.

Initially coined by British economist Jim O’Neill, the BRICS acronym underscored emerging investment opportunities rather than political objectives. The establishment of the BRICS in 2014, which later incorporated South Africa, centered on fostering economic engagement. However, the subsequent additions suggest a broader vision, which may divert the bloc from its original purpose.

While the expansion of the BRICS appears promising on the surface, it carries inherent complexities. The decision-making process within such a diverse coalition is fraught with challenges. Prior to this expansion, the bloc already grappled with differing foreign policy and economic goals among its founding members. The inclusion of nations with distinct economies and geopolitical stances could exacerbate these existing challenges.

For instance, India’s evolving relationship with Western powers and its well-known tensions with China highlight the disagreements within the group. Furthermore, while the intention to expand the BRICS is evident and several countries have expressed interest, the bloc’s overarching vision remains unclear. This lack of clarity poses a significant threat to the group’s ability to maintain unity and exert influence.

Projected to collectively account for $27.6 trillion in GDP, representing 26.3% of the global total, the initial BRICS members are set to welcome the new entrants, elevating the anticipated GDP to $30.8 trillion, with a 29.3% share of the global market.

The strength of the BRICS alliance has traditionally rested on its significant share of the world’s population, largely attributed to China and India, the only two countries with populations exceeding one billion. Notably, the alliance’s demographic weight will increase further with the inclusion of Ethiopia, boasting a population of 126.5 million, and Egypt, with 112.7 million residents.

A prominent question surrounds the potential for the BRICS to achieve “de-dollarization.” Despite claims of reducing dependence on the US dollar, the BRICS’ own New Development Bank, established to rival Western institutions like the IMF, remains significantly tied to the dollar. A comprehensive shift away from the dollar would necessitate a radical transformation of the entire financial ecosystem, which has relied on the dollar for decades.

While some member nations, such as Russia, have initiated trade in alternative currencies, a complete overhaul seems distant. Additionally, while the integration of affluent oil-producing nations contributes financial assets, a cohesive economic strategy demands more than just monetary input. Achieving cohesion involves sharing a vision, purpose, and compatible economic strategies, elements that the BRICS alliance has historically struggled to unify.

Despite the apparent benefits of BRICS’ rapid expansion, challenges accompanying such growth should not be overlooked. While attaining supremacy in the global commodities market holds promise, it does not automatically translate into geopolitical significance or an immediate shift away from the US dollar. Many of the participating countries maintain substantial economic ties with the West, making a swift separation difficult and potentially detrimental to their own economies.

Furthermore, although there is growing public interest in commodities, as evidenced by increased Google searches, this doesn’t always correlate with a genuine comprehension or willingness to deviate from existing trade norms. Hastily altering global economic institutions without well-defined strategies can result in economic instability.

The expanded membership of the BRICS alliance undoubtedly has the potential to reshape global economic discourse. However, this potential is countered by inherent challenges arising from the diverse economic objectives, geopolitical affiliations, and historical conflicts among the member nations. To truly challenge Western dominance and the supremacy of the US dollar, the BRICS bloc requires not only expansion but also cohesion, a clearly defined vision, and time.

According to a Reuters report, more than 40 nations have expressed their interest in joining the BRICS alliance. Among them, a subset of 16 countries has formally submitted applications for membership, including Algeria, Cuba, Indonesia, Palestine, and Vietnam.

China Slides Into Deflation as Consumer and Factory Prices Drop

China entered a period of deflation in July, intensifying the pressure on policymakers to enhance both monetary and fiscal support. This imperative arises despite indications that the decline in prices may be transitory, potentially limiting the effectiveness of any stimulus measures.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the consumer price index experienced a 0.3% decrease last month compared to the previous year, marking its first descent since February 2021. The forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated a 0.4% drop in prices. In parallel, producer prices continued to decline for the tenth consecutive month, contracting by 4.4% in July year-on-year, slightly worse than anticipated. This is the initial occurrence since November 2020 in which both consumer and producer prices have experienced contractions.

The National Bureau of Statistics attributed the decrease in consumer prices to a high base of comparison with the previous year, emphasizing that this contraction is expected to be temporary, and consumer demand improved during July. Dong Lijuan, the chief statistician at the NBS, stated, “With the impact of a high base from last year gradually fading, the CPI is likely to rebound gradually.” However, these comments are noteworthy as Chinese authorities have recently discouraged economists from discussing deflation to bolster positive narratives about the economy.

China, which initially experienced an upsurge in consumer and business demand following the lifting of pandemic restrictions, is now grappling with an unusual period of declining prices. Factors such as a prolonged downturn in the property market, diminished export demand, and subdued consumer spending are impeding the nation’s economic recovery. Robin Xing, the chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, commented, “China is in deflation for sure… The question is how long. It’s up to the policymakers — will they react with coordinated fiscal and monetary easing.”

Picture : Reuters

In response to the weak inflation data, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index experienced slight declines. Investors are anticipating that the People’s Bank of China may increase monetary stimulus, including interest rate cuts. However, the central bank faces several constraints, including a weaker yuan and elevated levels of debt in the economy. Fiscal support has been relatively restrained due to financial pressures confronting local governments.

To overcome these challenges, Xing emphasized the necessity of accelerating government spending, increasing government debt, and implementing coordinated monetary and fiscal easing measures. However, concerns persist about the effectiveness of releasing money into the banking system, as some companies appear hesitant to expand production amid softening profit expectations.

Chinese regulators have attempted to downplay deflation risks, instructing analysts and companies not to publicly discuss the matter. PBOC officials have asserted that China will steer clear of deflation in the second half of the year, with consumer price growth anticipated to approach 1% by year-end.

The decline in prices also implies a rise in real financing costs within the economy, a factor that some economists argue should intensify the urgency for the PBOC to take action to prevent further weakening of growth momentum. Bruce Pang, head of research and chief economist for greater China at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc., indicated that addressing reserve requirements (RRR) might be more necessary than reducing interest rates in the short term, as various structural monetary policy tools and policy bank financing tools remain available.

The core inflation measure, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, saw an increase to 0.8% from 0.4%, indicating underlying albeit subdued demand in the economy. Within the consumer inflation data, prices for household goods, food, and transportation experienced contractions, while prices for service spending, such as recreation and education, climbed.

“We expect CPI will be negative only for the short term, like for one to two months,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Plc. “Food and energy prices are more likely to go up instead of going down in the second half of the year. That means the drag on CPI seen in the first half from food and fuel will like ease.”

While PPI has likely bottomed out, “it will be rather hard to emerge from deflation in the rest of the year,” he said.

Tharman Shanmugaratnam Qualifies To Contest Singapore Presidential Election

Indian-origin former minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam and two others have been issued the certificates of eligibility for Singapore’s presidential election slated to take place on September 1, the Elections Department said in a statement on Friday.

At the close of applications for a Certificate of Eligibility on Thursday, the Presidential Elections Committee (PEC) received a total of six applications.

Out of these, the PEC qualified 66-year-old Tharman, former GIC investment chief Ng Kok Song, 75, and former National Trades Union Congress Income chief Tan Kin Lian, 75.

The committee, headed by Public Service Commission chairman Lee Tzu Yang and two Supreme Court judges, found that all three men were of integrity, good character and reputation.

“Based on the information available to the Committee, it is satisfied that Mr Tharman is a man of integrity, good character and reputation,” the Election Department said in a statement.

“The Committee is also satisfied that Mr Tharman has met the public sector service requirement under Article 19(3)(a), having held office for a period of 3 or more years as Minister,” the statement added.

Tharman, who had formally launched his presidential campaign last month with a pledge to evolve the country’s culture, filed his application for a certificate of eligibility on August 7.

In Singapore, candidates must apply for the Certificate of Eligibility if they wish to enter the presidential contest.

It is given to those who meet public or private sector requirements, among other criteria.

In addition, there is a community declaration, which allows candidates to declare if they are from the Chinese, Malay, Indian or “Other Minority” communities.

The ELD said it has notified all individuals on the outcome of their applications, and also told the unsuccessful applicants the reasons for rejecting them.

However, it added that the PEC will not publish the names of the unsuccessful candidates and the reasons for rejecting them.

The decision was taken after concern was expressed in the Report of the Constitutional Commission 2016 that potential applicants may be dissuaded from stepping forward to contest the elections for fear of embarrassment.

Tharman announced his intent to run in the city-state’s presidential election in June, after giving 22 years to active politics.

Prior to joining politics, Tharman was an economist and a civil servant at the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Singapore will hold its first Presidential Election since 2011, after eighth and first female president, Halimah Yacob, announced this year that she will not seek a second term. (IANS)

Parliament Of The World’s Religions Hopes To Harness Faith To Address World’s Ills

(RNS) — Thousands of religious leaders — from Buddhists to Zoroastrians — gathered at Chicago’s cavernous McCormick Place conference center on Monday, August 14th for the opening day of the Parliament of the World’s Religions, a historic and influential gathering.

Picture : RNS

More than 6,500 religious leaders from 95 countries who had gathered in Chicago, urged attendees to appreciate both the uniqueness of their own spiritual traditions as well as the traditions of their neighbors — and to work together to address the world’s biggest problems.

The Rev. Vance Henry, the chief of faith engagement for Chicago’s mayor, told attendees that the world remains filled with darkness and division. But that darkness, he said, can be overcome if people of faith work together.

He drew on a story from his childhood and from a parable of Jesus to make his point — saying it is better to light a candle than to curse the darkness. “If we decided to put our lights together — we can force the darkness away,” he said.

The Rev. Asayo Horibe, president of the Buddhist Council of the Midwest, described the Parliament as both a spiritual event and a gathering of friends. Horibe, who greeted attendees in English, Spanish and Hawaiian, said she first attended a Parliament gathering in 1993, the last time it was held in Chicago. The Parliament traces its history to an event in 1893, also in Chicago, which is credited with inspiring the interfaith movement in the United States.

“I am so grateful for the friendships that have come my way since the beginning of this journey,” Horibe said. She urged attendees to learn from each other — and to share what they learn. Talk to everyone,” she said. “Greet everyone. And go home with the treasures you have received at this gathering.”

The Rev. Selena Fox of Circle Sanctuary greets another participant in the Parade of Faiths in downtown Chicago on Aug. 13, 2023. The parade preceded the Parliament of the World’s Religions, which began Aug. 14. Photo by Lauren Pond for RNS

Eboo Patel, the founder of Chicago-based Interfaith America, told Religion News Service that much of the nation’s interfaith movement, including the organization he leads, was inspired by the work of the Parliament.  “This week it gives a profound gift to the world: demonstration that faith is a source of inspiration, not domination; a bridge of cooperation, not a barrier of division,” he said.

As of Monday afternoon, more than 6,500 attendees from 95 countries, representing 212 spiritual traditions, had registered for the Parliament, with more attending online.

Along with plenary sessions about climate change and defending human rights, the Parliament’s meeting offers hundreds of workshops and panels — as well as networking opportunities.

In her remarks during the Parliament’s opening session, Barbara Abrajano, president of the Council of Religious Leaders of Metropolitan Chicago, reminded attendees of the power of interfaith cooperation.

“No single community of faith working alone can resolve the challenges that all of us face together,” she told attendees. “But if we stand together for all we believe, then our diversity is our greatest strength. We show people that there is another, better way.”

Rashad Hussain, the U.S. ambassador-at-large for religious freedom, echoed the idea that religious diversity is a source of strength. “We don’t seek uniformity,” he told attendees. “But we must have a unity in purpose.”

Hussain, who is Muslim, also stressed the importance of protecting religious freedom for all. During his comments, he pointed out that he succeeded former Ambassador Sam Brownback, who is Christian, and Rabbi David Saperstein, who is Jewish.

In an interview after the opening session, Hussain said he continues to work with his predecessors on matters of religious freedom, which remains a bipartisan issue. Their collaboration and their differing faith backgrounds serve as an example of interfaith cooperation.

“It sends a powerful signal to the world that we will stand up for the rights of all people,” Hussain said. He also said the Parliament can be an example of the way religious communities can help address global challenges.

“Religion can be such a powerful force for good all around the world in bringing us together and addressing some of the challenges that we face,” he said. “And it should always be a force for good. It should never be used to harm people or oppress people.”

Speakers at the Parliament’s opening sessions spoke openly about the ways religion can be viewed with suspicion or used to harm others. That makes the Parliament’s work all the more important, said the Rev. Paul Raushenbush, president of the Interfaith Alliance.

Raushenbush, who was to give a plenary address on Tuesday, told RNS the Parliament’s focus on both religious freedom and human rights is essential, especially at a time when authoritarian forms of organized religion are on the rise.

“The reason the interfaith movement was born was because people decided they were not going to kill each other because they believe different things,” he said. “And we still have people killing each other for believing different things.”

In his address later this week, Raushenbush said, he plans to challenge attendees to put their beliefs and their cooperation into action to counter authoritarian political and religious groups. 

“We are really focusing on the rise of authoritarianism and the rise of the threat of a certain elevation of one religious tradition over others,” he said. “And this is happening around the world working in concert with political and other kinds of power.”

Questions about the role of religion in the world drew a small group of students and staff from Queens University in Charlotte, North Carolina, to the Parliament.

“We’re here to really ask some serious questions about working together to build a thriving world community,” said Queens University chaplain Adrian Bird.

Katie Pittman, a senior religion major at Queens, said the Parliament was a chance for her to experience a wide range of religious diversity in person. “I’m really here to just soak everything up and learn.”

Prioritizing Southeast Asia in American China Policy

A new Task Force on U.S.-China Policy report, Prioritizing Southeast Asia in American China Policy, lays out reasons why Southeast Asia is a critically important but under-appreciated region when it comes to U.S. interests and U.S. competition with China, and recommends actions for the U.S. government, in the face of China’s growing influence in the region.

Southeast Asia has, in recent decades, become an engine of growth for the global economy, with a combined GDP among its 11 nations of more than $3.6 trillion. Much of the world’s trade moves through Southeast Asia’s strategically important waters – the South China Sea and the Malacca Strait.

China is now the region’s top trading partner and one of its top investors. While many Southeast Asians view their region’s economic relationship with China favorably, concern is growing about how China uses its economic clout for political leverage and strategic positioning, sometimes at the expense of Southeast Asian interests. In response, Southeast Asians are increasingly seeking ways to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the region.

Picture : RAND Corporation

The report explains why there is room, and good reason, for the United States to strengthen its already considerable economic, political, and strategic ties with the region. It includes perspectives shared by Southeast Asian policy experts from each of the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, in two days of closed-door dialogue with the Task Force on U.S.-China Policy’s Working Group on Southeast Asia, hosted by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore in May 2023, under the Chatham House Rule.

The Task Force on U.S.-China Policy is co-chaired by Asia Society Vice President and Arthur Ross Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations Orville Schell, and by Susan Shirk, the founding chair of the University of California, San Diego’s 21st Century China Center.

The report gives recommendations for U.S. policy both from the perspective of the Working Group’s Southeast Asian dialogue partners, and from the Working Group itself.

Southeast Asian recommendations include:

  • Be consistent in the U.S. approach to the region. Episodic, inconsistent and self-serving governmental engagement has been America’s greatest failing and weakness, leading to a perception that the U.S. may not be a reliable long-term partner.
  • Forget about American “primacy.” The region is now genuinely multipolar. America is only one of several regional actors.
  • Get in the regional economic game. Joining regional economic organizations is imperative. If you can’t join CPTPP or RCEP, give serious thought to negotiating a regional U.S.-ASEAN foreign trade agreement.
  • Significantly improve U.S. diplomacy, and public diplomacy. Show Southeast Asians that they matter to the United States, and get better at telling what the U.S. is already doing to help them.
  • Take ASEAN seriously as an organization. Increase U.S. Mission to ASEAN staff and develop ASEAN-wide initiatives, rather than merely pursuing bilateral relationships.

The Working Group’s recommendations include:

  • Resist viewing the region only or mostly through the lens of competition with China
  • Increase top-level U.S. governmental visits to Southeast Asia
  • Strengthen U.S. embassy capacities throughout the region
  • Create a Regional Development Initiative that offers aid and other assistance to improve public health, food and water security, environmental sustainability, and more.
  • Increase U.S. public diplomacy, and strengthen U.S. soft power and influence
  • Upgrade diplomatic relations and interactions with ASEAN
  • Play to American strengths in commerce, with U.S. as part of the regional economic architecture
  • Strengthen US intelligence and counter-intelligence cooperation with Southeast Asian counterparts

Continue the full range of in-country military/security assistance programs

The Working Group on Southeast Asia was led by David Shambaugh, Gaston Sigur Professor of Asian Studies, Political Science & International Affairs and Director, China Policy Program, George Washington University, who was also the report’s lead author.

Other Working Group members were:

Orville Schell, Vice-President and Arthur Ross Director, Center on US-China Relations, Asia Society

Daniel Russel, Vice-President for International Security and Diplomacy, Asia Society Policy Institute, and former Assistant U.S. Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs (2013–2017)

Ambassador Charlene Barshefsky, Chair, Parkside Global Advisors & former U.S. Trade Representative (1997–2001)

Professor Steven F. Jackson, Fellow, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Mary Kay Magistad, Deputy Director, Center on US-China Relations, Asia Society, and former NPR Southeast Asia correspondent

Zack Cooper, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute

Gen. (Rtd.), Karl W. Eikenberry, former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan (2009–2011).

To connect with any of the speakers directly for an interview, please reach out to pr@asiasociety.org.

‘War No Longer An Option,” Pakistan PM Wants Talks With India

Pakistan and India cannot be “normal neighbours” if they do not communicate, said Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the country is ready to hold “peaceful and meaningful discussions” with India to address all serious and outstanding issues. The PM made the comments at the inaugural session of the Pakistan Minerals Summit in Islamabad on August 1, 2023.

Sharif expressed that communication was key if Pakistan and India were to be “normal neighbours”. His comments come a little over a month since India’s External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar said India couldn’t have normal relations with Pakistan until they shun the policy of cross-border terrorism.

“We are prepared to talk with everyone, even with our neighbour, provided the neighbour is serious to talk serious matters on the table because war is no more an option,” the Prime Minister said, in a discernible reference to India, as per media reports.

Bilateral relations between India-Pakistan have remained strained since August 5, 2019, when the Narendra Modi government bifurcated the state of Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories. Sharif said relations would not become normal until the “abnormalities” are removed and “serious issues are understood.”

T​he Pakistani leader also spoke about the history of war between India and Pakistan saying it impacted the overall well-being of both countries and the people. India and Pakistan are nuclear powers, with the latter having a larger arsenal. While the countries have not engaged in nuclear warfare with each other yet, experts have predicted that the ongoing tensions could reach a point where things are escalated beyond the use of conventional weapons.

India has declared a No First Use policy meaning it will never use nuclear weapons first if a conflict arises. While Pakistan has not declared the same, in his recent address, “War is no longer an option,” Sharif said stressing that “Pakistan is a nuclear power, not for aggression but for our defence purposes.”​

How India’s Economy Will Overtake U.S. Economy?

Angus Maddison, the esteemed economic historian, estimated that India held the position of the world’s largest economy for an astonishing period of one and a half millennia. However, by 1820, China surpassed India, and the two countries continued to dominate the global economy until 1870 when the Industrial Revolution in the West and European colonization began to take effect. Consequently, Britain emerged as the leading economic power, but by 1900, the United States took over this mantle. Nevertheless, with the growing discussion about Asia’s rise, there is speculation that the world economy might be returning to its historical norm.

The potential for such a shift cannot be underestimated. China, with an economy already at 70% of the U.S. and a growth rate more than double that of the latter, is poised to become the world’s largest economy between 2035 and 2040. Yet, the focus now shifts to whether India’s economy will also surpass that of the U.S. and when this might occur.

Several factors work in favor of India. To begin with, its GDP per capita is currently less than 20% of China’s and merely 5% of the U.S.’s. However, this productivity gap presents significant opportunities for India to catch up. By accumulating capital and imparting skills to its workforce, the country can achieve substantial productivity increases simply by deploying existing superior technologies.

Picture : India CSR

India’s young and sizable population provides a dual advantage. Firstly, a larger workforce translates into potentially higher output per capita. Secondly, as the young tend to save for old age, this leads to higher savings and consequently increased investment. These factors not only contribute directly to output but also facilitate the adoption of advanced technology. Additionally, a younger population injects more energy and dynamism into the nation, fostering innovation.

To fully leverage its young population, India must focus on raising its labor participation rate, particularly among women. Currently, less than one-quarter of women aged 15 and above are part of India’s workforce, whereas in China and the U.S., three-fifths of women participate. Improving education at all levels will play a crucial role in achieving this objective.

Population size is another advantage for India, which likely surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country. This population advantage leads to economies of scale in the provision of public goods. For instance, India’s digital payments infrastructure built on the Aadhaar biometric identity system and the UPI platform benefits from a larger user base, reducing the per-capita cost of building the infrastructure. The same principle applies to other sectors like transportation, electricity, and water supply.

The larger population also aids in creating supply chains, allowing for agglomeration and cost efficiencies. With increasing risks in China, multinational corporations are adopting the “China+1” strategy, seeking an alternative, less risky, and cost-effective location for investments. India stands out as a strong contender for this strategy due to its substantial single market size, enabling smoother movement of components without customs barriers. Moreover, the large internal labor market enhances the potential for a better match between required skills and available workforce.

To realize its potential, India needs to reduce trade protectionism, which remains relatively high. Sustaining growth rates of at least 8% to overtake the U.S. economy requires embracing globalization. Lowering tariffs, engaging in more free trade agreements with major economies and trade blocs, and reducing the use of anti-dumping measures are crucial steps.

Additionally, India must address certain areas of concern. Swift privatization of public sector enterprises, particularly banks with a history of low or negative returns, is essential. Tax reform is another priority, as businesses, especially small- and medium-sized ones, have voiced complaints about overzealous tax authorities and a complex system.

Ultimately, India should hark back to the spirit of its economic reforms in 1991, which emphasized liberalization, privatization, and globalization, and have already contributed to accelerated growth. If India aims to regain its position among the world’s top two economies in the next 50 years, it must deepen and broaden the reforms initiated three decades ago.

Violence and State Inaction in Manipur Condemned Across the World

The ongoing ethnic/religious violence in the northeastern Indian state of Manipur and the lack of adequate response from the state have been condemned by people and organizations around the world.

The violence erupted on May 3 after the Kuki-Zomi community protested against the Meitei demand for Scheduled Tribe (ST) status. The majority Meiteis account for about 53 per cent of Manipur’s population and live mostly in the Imphal Valley, while tribals, which include Nagas and Kukis, constitute 40 percent and reside mostly in the hill districts.

Reports of tribal Kuki attacks on ethnic Meiteis circulated immediately after the protest, which in turn plunged the Imphal Valley which accommodates 90% of Manipur’s population into an outburst of violence against Kuki tribal Christians. At the same time, ethnic Meitei settlements in the Kuki-dominated hills surrounding the valley also were the targets of violence.

While the official death count now totaling around 150, with the overwhelming majority of the victims being Kuki Christians, human rights observers estimate the figure to be underestimated.

Nearly 60,000 people, most of them Kuki Christians, now have fled their homes to the Kuki-dominated hills and to other states to escape the arson attacks, and more than 300 churches have been burned and destroyed.

According to multiple media reports, a clear anti-Christian political agenda is in play in the strife, with the Hindu nationalist BJP state government condoning the targeted violence by Meitei groups.

The unprecedented attacks on Christian targets in Manipur have galvanized Christians across the country to participate in the street protests, including at the parish level in the southern Christian heartland of Kerala, where Hindu nationalists led by Modi have been trying to woo Christians to support the BJP by assuring them of “security.”

The situation in Manipur has also provoked international concerns. On July 13, the European Union parliament passed a resolution urging India to “take all necessary measures and make the utmost effort to promptly halt the ongoing ethnic and religious violence, to protect all religious minorities, such as Manipur’s Christian community, and to pre-empt any further escalation.”

The US is “shocked and horrified” by the video of an extreme attack on two women in Manipur and supports the Indian Government’s efforts to seek justice for them, Vedant Patel, Deputy Spokesperson of the State Department. a senior Biden administration official said.

The video showing two women being paraded naked and molested by a group of men on May 4 in Kangpokpi district surfaced on July 19, attracting condemnation countrywide.

“We were shocked and horrified by the video of this extreme attack on two women in Manipur. We convey our profound sympathies to the survivors of this act of gender-based violence and support the Indian Government’s efforts to seek justice for them,” Vedant Patel, Deputy Spokesperson of the State Department, told reporters at his daily news conference on Tuesday, July 25th.

Picture : Prokerala

The Executive Committee of the Supreme Court Bar Association of India has expressed its deep concern and condemnation regarding the several incidents of violence in Manipur, including the recent incidents involving women being paraded naked by a group of armed men. “Such incidents in Manipur, which have been taking place, since have not only brought suffering among the people of Manipur, but also have led to the loss of several lives,” a statement issued by the SC Bar Association led by its President Dr. Adish C. Agarwala, Sr., stated. “The Executive Committee expresses its deep concern over the incidents which have tarnished the humanitarian ethics to its core. We categorically condemn the gender-based violence and humiliation as it has far-reaching consequences on the victims’ physical and psychological well-being.”

It is noteworthy to state that from its very inception, the Supreme Court Bar Association has been in the vanguard of the movement for upholding, maintaining and consolidation of the constitutional values of democracy, the rule of law and the independence of the Judiciary. In its meeting dated 4th May 1951, the Executive Committee of the Bar Association consisting of legal luminaries like M. C. Setalvad, C. K. Daphtary and K. M. Munshi spoke of their deep concern against the first amendment of the Indian Constitution.

The prestigious and top Bar Association in the nation also condemned “the inaction of the state police in bringing the culprits to book for a long period of two months and the inability to generally tackle the debilitating violence in the state of Manipur. We call upon the state government and the central government to immediately take action to punish the perpetrators and prevent other acts of violence in the state, which are still continuing,” the statement signed by Rohit Pandey, Honorary Secretary of the Supreme Court Bar Association.

Indian Americans and allies have held protests in the US states of California, New Jersey, and Massachusetts throughout the past weekend to condemn the ongoing ethnic violence in Manipur, which has left hundreds of people dead and thousands displaced. The protests were in part a response to a horrific video last week, showing two young tribal women being paraded naked while being molested by a group of men in the violence-hit state.

Other protest rallies and prayer vigils have been planned across several states including infront of the United Nations, condemning the government’s inaction and in solidarity with the suffering Manipuri people.

Pieter Friedrich, a well-known freelance journalist, has been on hunger strike since July 25 with a call on Representative Ro Khanna to speak about the Manipur issue in US Congress.  ‘One thing I know about Ro is that he’s passionate about human rights. It’s close to his heart and he has always been swift to speak about it, even on international issues, except when it comes to India. I want to stand in solidarity with Ro’s grandfather, Amarnath Vidyalankar, who struggled for the freedom of India. I hope that Ro chooses to follow his grandfather’s example by taking this one very small, easy step of speaking on the House floor against the anti-Christian violence which is still happening in Manipur,’ Friedrich told the media. “What is happening in Manipur is far more awful than my experience of not eating. I hope and pray Khanna speaks out,” he said.  Two other people have also joined the fast in solidarity as of the 25th, he said.

“The Prime Minister’s reaction has come too late. He should have spoken out when the bloodshed started but just kept quiet all through,” Archbishop Dominic Lumon of Imphal, who heads the Catholic Church in the strife-torn state, told the media. “Fear is pervasive even now [after 79 days] and peace remains a dream for us. Everyone is living in fear as violence keeps erupting in the [Imphal] Valley and its peripheries frequently,” added Archbishop Lumon, who heads the 100,000-member local Catholic Church in the tiny state in northeast India, which has a total population of less than four million people.

U.S. Dependence on Taiwan For Critical Semiconductor Presents Strategic And Economic Risks

A new report from the Asia Society Center on U.S.-China Relations and the Hoover Institution identifies U.S. dependence on Taiwan for semiconductors as “a considerable strategic and economic risk,” and states that “mitigating this risk must be an urgent priority for U.S. policy.”

As Taiwan comes under increasing pressure from China to come under its direct control, Silicon Triangle: The United States, Taiwan, China, and Global Semiconductor Security lays out how the United States and its allies can reduce risk while also protecting Taiwan’s autonomy.

Taiwan produces most of the world’s semiconductors, which run everything from mobile phones to advanced weapons system. “Semiconductors link our geopolitics, our ongoing economic prosperity, and our technological competitiveness,” the report states.

The report offers recommendations for how the United States and its allies can ensure a reliable supply of semiconductors. “It is not enough to simply constrain China,” the report says. “It is not even enough to innovate in design. The United States must run faster, harder, and with longer-term vision.”

Drawing on the shared thinking of a working group of senior former U.S. government officials and military leaders, technologists, economists, military strategists, industry players, and regional policy experts that met together over 18 months, the report’s recommendations include that the U.S. increase domestic capability to manufacture semiconductors and:

  • Invest in education on semiconductors within the United States, starting in K-12.
  • Increase Research & Development funding in both basic and applied research.
  • Set immigration rules that welcome and retain top scientists and engineers in this field.
  • Use a market-oriented, government-led industrial policy to strengthen the semiconductor sector within the United States.

The working group is co-chaired by the Arthur Ross Director of the Asia Society Center on U.S.-China Relations Orville Schell, Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Larry Diamond, and retired U.S. Navy Admiral Jim Ellis, Hoover Institution Annenberg Distinguished Fellow. A Foreign Affairs article by the co-chairs, lays out the report’s key recommendations.

Some highlights from the report:

“Restoring U.S. leadership requires close cooperation with reliable partner countries. It also requires an international talent pool of scientists and engineers from around the world, with immigration rules that welcome and retain this talent.”

“Taiwan is one of Asia’s most prosperous and successful liberal democracies, the world’s leading innovator in and producer of semiconductors, and a trusted partner in critical supply chains.”

“We believe it is in the interest not only of Taiwan’s twenty-four million people, but also of the United States and the entire Indo-Pacific region to deter PRC aggression against the island.”

“The United States should pursue comprehensive, market-oriented industrial policy measures as part of a long-term critical-technology global competitiveness agenda.”

“The United States should ensure that its imports of finished semiconductors and key inputs in the supply chain come from reliable and broadly ideologically compatible trading partners, such as current foreign industry leaders Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.”

“The United States should increase federal R&D funding in basic and applied research that spans established fields such as conventional semiconductors as well as frontier fields.”

“The long-term solution to the critical shortage of home-grown science and engineering talent in the United States must include substantial enhancements of K–12 education. Students should be exposed to high-tech industries, including semiconductors, at an early age.”

“We urge corporations, government agencies, universities, and society at large to make the pursuit of engineering and careers in critical technologies as rewarding, well compensated, and esteemed as pathways as possible. Put simply, we must retain our own talent once they are trained, while attracting as much international talent as we can.”

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