Severe Arctic Blast to Grip U.S. in Deep Freeze as Polar Vortex Stretches Again

The coldest Arctic blast of the season is set to engulf much of the United States, marking yet another intense polar vortex event in what has already been a winter of repeated frigid invasions, meteorologists warn. The icy grip is expected to persist throughout next week.

Unusual weather patterns in the Arctic are causing the typically confined frigid air near the North Pole to spill southward, affecting both the U.S. and parts of Europe, according to meteorologists interviewed by The Associated Press.

This marks the 10th time this winter that the polar vortex—a system that normally contains the coldest Arctic air—has stretched southward, said Judah Cohen, seasonal forecast director at Atmospheric and Environmental Research. By contrast, a typical winter sees only two or three such events.

From record snowfall in New Orleans to drought and devastating wildfires in Southern California, this winter has been anything but ordinary.

Bitter Cold to Dominate the Central and Eastern U.S.

The impending Arctic outbreak is expected to first hit the northern Rockies and northern Plains by Saturday, lingering throughout the week. The cold will be most intense east of the Rockies, sparing only the far western U.S. and parts of central and southern Florida.

On Tuesday, temperatures across the Lower 48 states are forecasted to average 16.6 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 8.6 Celsius), dropping further to 14 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 10 Celsius) by Wednesday, according to calculations by private meteorologist Ryan Maue, a former chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

By next week, about 89% of the contiguous U.S. will experience freezing temperatures, with 27% of the Lower 48 seeing subzero conditions (minus 18 degrees Celsius), per National Weather Service projections.

Adding to the misery, strong winds will make the cold even more punishing. Every U.S. state—except Hawaii, California, and Florida—will likely experience wind chills of 20 degrees or lower at some point, the National Weather Service predicts.

Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa will bear the brunt of the Arctic chill, with temperatures plummeting as much as 35 degrees Fahrenheit (19 degrees Celsius) below normal, said Zack Taylor, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center. NOAA models forecast subzero lows in Oklahoma, Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan by Wednesday.

Potential for Storms and Nor’easter

The extended period of extreme cold may also bring storms, including heavy snowfall, flooding, or possibly a nor’easter, though exact details remain uncertain, Taylor noted.

“All the stars align—all the wind directions in the atmosphere are dragging the cold polar air out of the Canadian Arctic,” Maue said. “It’s the depths of winter. Everything signals extreme, biting winter cold. This isn’t the first polar vortex event of the season, but it looks to be the most severe.”

Unusual Polar Vortex Behavior Under Scrutiny

Unlike traditional polar vortex disruptions—where sudden warming weakens the vortex and allows cold air to escape south—this event involves stretching rather than breaking. According to Cohen, the vortex remains strong but elongates and bends, resulting in outbreaks that, while extreme, are generally less severe than full vortex collapses. Stretch events like this tend to impact the U.S. more than Europe.

Meteorologists are analyzing why this type of stretching is occurring so frequently this year. It could simply be a result of natural climate variability, said Laura Ciasto, a NOAA meteorologist specializing in the polar vortex.

“What we’re observing right now is interesting, but not unprecedented,” said Martin Stendel, a scientist at Denmark’s National Center for Climate Research.

A contributing factor is a high-pressure system over Greenland, which is shifting westward and altering the jet stream. This change is creating a pattern that allows Arctic air to surge southward and linger, Cohen explained.

Some scientists, including Stendel, suggest that human-induced climate change may be making the jet stream more erratic, increasing the likelihood of these prolonged, wavy weather patterns.

Cold Winter Amid Global Warming

Despite the frigid conditions in much of the U.S., the planet continues to experience a broader warming trend. January set another global temperature record, marking the 18th time in the past 19 months that the Earth exceeded the internationally recognized warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.

With an unprecedented number of polar vortex disruptions this winter, meteorologists remain uncertain about when this extreme cold pattern will finally break.