A surge of rainfall inundated sections of Dubai on Tuesday, transforming streets into waterways and causing a temporary shutdown of the world’s second-busiest airport. This downpour prompted inquiries into whether the United Arab Emirates’ cloud-seeding initiative was responsible for the deluge.
According to officials at the National Center of Meteorology in the UAE, the rain was not attributed to cloud seeding, as reported by CNN. The center has been approached for further comment.
Even if cloud-seeding operations were conducted preceding the storm, it’s highly improbable that these efforts could have generated more rain than what would have naturally occurred. Despite decades of attempts to extract additional moisture from clouds, there remains scant evidence of its efficacy.
Nevertheless, several countries, including the UAE, China, and the US, persist in their endeavors to manipulate weather patterns.
What exactly is cloud seeding?
Cloud seeding is a technique aimed at augmenting rainfall or snowfall beyond natural levels. Cloud droplets require nuclei for condensation to occur, akin to water condensing on a cold glass during hot weather. These nuclei are minuscule particles in the atmosphere onto which moisture can adhere.
By introducing additional particles, such as silver iodide, into clouds, aircraft seek to enhance the formation of water or ice droplets. Once these droplets coalesce sufficiently, they precipitate as rain or snow.
Typically, natural particles like dust and dirt serve as the catalyst for cloud condensation. Silver iodide serves a similar purpose in theory.
Does cloud seeding yield results?
Assessing the impact of cloud seeding on precipitation is immensely challenging. Conducting controlled experiments to quantify its effectiveness faces considerable obstacles.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA, emphasized the difficulty in distinguishing between precipitation resulting from seeding and that which would have occurred naturally. The absence of a controlled environment complicates such assessments.
Despite efforts to study its effects, skepticism persists within the scientific community. A study published in 2020 suggested that one cloud seeding experiment may have increased precipitation by up to 10% compared to natural levels. However, conclusive evidence remains elusive.
What are the potential drawbacks of cloud seeding?
In light of escalating global temperatures due to human-induced climate change, certain regions are experiencing heightened heat and aridity. While cloud seeding may seem a solution to address water scarcity, it could exacerbate dry conditions elsewhere.
Swain cautioned that cloud seeding might inadvertently divert water from one area to another, potentially exacerbating dryness downstream.
Unprecedented flooding driven by an intense storm system
The torrential rain that triggered unprecedented flooding in the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Iran was not solely a consequence of cloud seeding. Instead, it resulted from a large, sluggish storm system traversing the Arabian Peninsula and moving into the Gulf of Oman over multiple days.
This storm tapped into abundant tropical moisture near the equator, unleashing it across the region. Regardless of cloud seeding activities, the storm was part of an extreme weather pattern foreseen days in advance.
As the atmosphere warms, such intense rainfall events are projected to become more frequent, akin to a towel absorbing and wringing out moisture.
