Global Climate Talks Open in Baku Amid Uncertain U.S. Stance on Environmental Goals

The COP29 summit has officially commenced in Baku, Azerbaijan, a nation known for its significant oil and gas production, positioned strategically along the Caspian Sea. This annual climate summit, attended by global leaders, scientists, environmental activists, and corporate representatives, is a platform to discuss actionable strategies to mitigate global warming and address the urgent climate-related threats facing communities worldwide. However, the recent re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. President has raised concerns about the future of America’s participation in international climate initiatives, especially given the country’s status as a major historical contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.

Last year’s conference concluded with an important agreement to move countries away from fossil fuel reliance. However, Trump has consistently advocated for increased fossil-fuel production in the U.S., a stance that could hinder international climate efforts. In fact, even before Trump’s return, the United Nations had already signaled that global efforts to combat climate pollution were severely lagging. 2023 saw greenhouse gas emissions reach record highs, and scientists from the EU now suggest with near certainty that 2024 will surpass all previous years as the hottest on record.

At the heart of this year’s discussions will be financing climate change efforts. The Baku summit aims to address the immense financial demands required to transform economies that remain deeply entrenched in fossil fuels and to help countries cope with escalating extreme weather risks. These financial needs are most urgent in developing countries, which contribute minimally to global emissions yet face the heaviest burdens of climate change. Nonetheless, funding remains far short of the necessary levels, and climate experts warn that the window for averting the most severe consequences of global warming is rapidly closing.

Rich Lesser, global chair of Boston Consulting Group, noted the urgency of the situation, saying, “I remain very optimistic on the technology side. The challenge is that the timeline to do this is not set by us.”

Objectives and Purpose of the COP29 Summit

This summit traces its roots to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, an international treaty signed by nearly 200 countries to prevent human-caused greenhouse gas pollution from disrupting the Earth’s climate. The annual climate meetings, known as the Conference of the Parties (COP), bring countries together to evaluate progress. COP29 will follow the tradition of assessing global action plans toward limiting global warming to under 2 degrees Celsius, with an ideal cap of 1.5 degrees, compared to pre-industrial levels to mitigate escalating extreme weather impacts. Yet, despite the target, the global community remains far from achieving these goals.

The landmark Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, mandated countries to set specific emissions reduction targets and periodically update them. These targets are aimed at containing global temperature increases within manageable limits. Nonetheless, current projections show the world is not close to meeting the 1.5-degree goal, and achieving it remains increasingly unlikely without significant shifts in climate policies.

Impact of the U.S. Presidential Election

Trump’s election victory could influence the summit’s trajectory. Known for his dismissal of climate change as a “hoax,” Trump previously withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and has implied he may repeat this action in his upcoming term.

“President-elect Trump has made very clear that he won’t wait six months to pull out of the Paris agreement like he did in his last term,” explained Alden Meyer, senior associate at climate think tank E3G. “He will pull out on day one.”

If the U.S. were to withdraw, the process requires a year to finalize. However, the immediate threat of departure is already impacting the diplomatic atmosphere. Meyer added that due to Trump’s victory, countries at the Baku summit may look to the European Union and China for leadership rather than the U.S.

Early next year, countries are expected to submit more ambitious emission reduction commitments. Still, to move forward, they must establish a new framework to assist developing countries in reducing fossil fuel dependence and managing climate change impacts. This agenda item will be a primary focus at COP29.

Financial Assistance Promised to Developing Nations

Wealthy nations have historically built their prosperity by exploiting fossil fuels, thereby contributing significantly to global warming. Developing countries, by contrast, are responsible for a smaller share of emissions but endure disproportionate climate impacts due to weaker economies and geographic vulnerabilities.

To address this disparity, wealthier nations pledged in 2009 to allocate $100 billion annually to developing nations by 2020. This goal, reaffirmed in 2015 and extended to 2025, is intended to support developing nations in combating climate change. However, despite reaching a record $115.9 billion in 2022, these funds only partially meet the critical needs of these nations.

Vijaya Ramachandran, director for energy and development at The Breakthrough Institute, emphasized the necessity of sustained funding. “I think for me, success is when the money is actually delivered,” she said. “What we really want to see is an increase in resources to poor countries that will actually enable them to tackle climate change. Instead, what we are seeing are these pronouncements.”

Additionally, the summit will discuss the newly established “loss and damage” fund, designed to support vulnerable countries already suffering from climate-related losses. While some countries have committed to the fund, no payments have yet been distributed due to ongoing discussions on its administration.

Countries’ Commitments to Emission Reduction

Countries are scheduled to submit their next round of emissions reduction pledges in February 2025. Some nations may unveil their commitments during the Baku summit.

The 2022 climate talks reached a consensus on the need to phase out fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal. Yet, S&P Global Commodity Insights reports that investments in fossil fuel exploration and production have increased this year. Trump’s climate agenda, which includes promoting fossil fuels and reducing funding for renewable energy projects, contrasts sharply with global climate goals. Trump has pledged to “terminate” Biden’s climate initiatives, including investments in solar and wind energy and large-scale batteries.

Assessment of Global Climate Goals

During COP28 in Dubai last year, countries committed to tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 and improving annual energy efficiency rates by 4%. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), this commitment is crucial to avoid the adverse effects of ongoing fossil fuel usage. Although countries aim to achieve 11,000 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030, a recent IRENA report suggests that they are on track to reach only half that target by the deadline.

IRENA director-general Francesco La Camera cautioned that while meeting this goal remains possible, it becomes increasingly challenging each year. “We made a shared commitment at COP28. Now it is time for us to deliver,” he said.

Countries are expected to submit detailed plans outlining how they intend to meet these climate goals in 2025. However, IRENA indicates limited progress in annual energy efficiency improvements, falling short of the 4% target.

For COP29, Azerbaijan has introduced an ambitious objective to enhance global energy storage capacity sixfold. Energy storage, primarily through batteries, is essential for maintaining renewable energy supplies during periods without sunlight or wind.

Role of Indigenous Communities

Indigenous groups have limited representation at COP meetings, but they offer valuable insights to countries willing to listen. These groups often advocate for policies that respect Indigenous rights and address the specific climate challenges they face.

Eriel Deranger, executive director of Indigenous Climate Action, highlighted Indigenous voices’ marginalization at COP29, stating, “It’s been really difficult, to be honest.”

Graeme Reed, representing North American Indigenous communities, emphasized the need for global solidarity among Indigenous groups. He explained, “The COP is predicated on the erasure of Indigenous nationhood. It’s built around the upholding of state nationhood, and as a result, we won’t see significant change until the nationhood of Indigenous peoples is acknowledged and incorporated.”

As COP29 progresses, these diverse perspectives will help shape the policies and commitments countries make toward tackling the global climate crisis. The decisions reached in Baku are likely to have lasting effects on climate actions worldwide, highlighting the urgent need for countries to not only commit to ambitious climate goals but also follow through on these commitments.