A new survey from a leading Democratic pollster shows President Joe Biden still in the running against Donald Trump, but facing increased risk of losing the election, while other top Democrats are gaining traction.
The national poll, conducted by Bendixen & Amandi following Biden’s problematic debate and shared exclusively with POLITICO, reveals Biden trailing Trump, 42 percent to 43 percent.
Among the 86 percent of likely voters who watched the debate, only 29 percent believe Biden has the mental capacity and physical stamina to serve another term, compared to 61 percent who do not. Additionally, only 33 percent feel he should remain the Democratic nominee, while 52 percent think he should step aside. Even among Democrats, just half support Biden continuing as the nominee or believe he is fit to serve another term.
Vice President Kamala Harris is now slightly ahead of Trump, 42 percent to 41 percent, according to the survey. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, despite not being a serious candidate, is ahead of Harris and leads Trump 43 percent to 41 percent.
The poll also examined other potential Democratic tickets and found a Clinton-Harris combination in the strongest position, beating Trump 43 percent to 40 percent, a four-point advantage over Biden-Harris.
Fernand Amandi, a veteran Miami-based pollster whose firm advised former President Barack Obama and conducted this poll, noted that more than one-third of Democrats do not view Biden as fit to run and think he should not continue. “Voters have significant concerns about President Biden’s advanced age, and their concerns have only grown louder,” he said. “But [they are] still not enough where it has made the race a blowout for Trump.”
Amandi expressed surprise at Hillary Clinton’s strength in the poll. “I’m really surprised by Hillary’s strength,” he said. “While some dismiss her as yesterday’s news and a candidate of the past, voters at least in this poll suggest they may be open to a Clinton comeback and that a ticket with Clinton as president and Harris as vice president is even ‘stronger together’,” referring to Clinton’s 2016 campaign slogan.
The poll also included other leading Democrats who might run if Biden steps aside, though they trailed both Harris and Trump. California Gov. Gavin Newsom lags behind Trump, 37 percent to 40 percent, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is slightly further behind Trump at 36 percent to 40 percent.
The survey of 1,000 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, was conducted by phone and email between July 2 and July 6. This comes as more Democratic officials, donors, and activists increase pressure on Biden to exit the race following his June 27 debate debacle.
Anthony Williams, special projects director at Bendixen & Amandi, noted that the openness to someone like Clinton shows a desire for a candidate tested on the international stage. “There’s a certain sophistication at play in the way voters are reacting. They are not knee-jerk reacting to the names that are being bandied about on television,” Williams said. “They are struggling with the same question the party is struggling with: Do we go with experience, or do we go with new? And I think, given everything going on with the world right now, if they can find someone with experience, that would help them sleep a little better.”
“We’re talking about relatively small differences — but important differences in a race that could come down to a couple points,” Williams added. “It’s almost as if [Clinton] finishes out Biden’s term in the experience lane.”
A Democratic ticket led by Harris with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate also did well, beating Trump by two percentage points, 42 percent to 40 percent. However, a Harris-Whitmer ticket is 2 points behind Trump, 39 to 41 percent.
Clinton, who at 76 is younger than both Trump and Biden, has publicly vowed not to run for president again and has reaffirmed her support for Biden after his Atlanta debate disaster. Shapiro, 51, took office last year after serving as attorney general and is a popular politician in his battleground state. Newsom and Whitmer are in their final terms and have been raising funds and campaigning for Biden.
Despite calls to step aside, Biden has pledged to keep running. He and White House officials pointed to his busy travel schedule before the debate and his bad cold as reasons for his poor performance. They stated that he has not had a cognitive examination and there is no reason for one.
The poll included a provocative question about whether voters would support Biden if he were cognitively diminished due to age and unlikely to complete another four years if it meant preventing Trump from winning. Forty-eight percent of voters said they would not support Biden for that reason, while 44 percent said they would, including 75 percent of Democrats. The strongest support for Biden came from Black voters, with 55 percent willing to back him even if he suffered age-related impairment and couldn’t complete the term.
Amandi noted that these answers show the floor of likely voters nationally who, despite reservations about Biden’s age and ability, would not let that stop them from opposing Trump, whom a majority see as a major threat.
In the poll, 53 percent of respondents viewed Trump becoming president as a grave danger to democracy in the U.S., while 37 percent dismissed it as partisan rhetoric.
“The debate exposed damage to both candidates — because one would have expected, in the aftermath of what the president himself described as a disastrous debate, for Trump to be opening up a significant lead,” Amandi said. “We’re not seeing that. And the backstop for that is voters having legitimate concerns about what Trump winning the presidency would mean for the future of the country and the democracy.”
Forty-eight percent of likely voters disagreed with the Supreme Court’s recent decision that Trump has immunity from criminal prosecutions for actions he took as president to subvert the 2020 election, while 40 percent agreed.
Amandi commissioned and conducted the poll to understand where likely voters stood after the June 27 debate — whether they would stick with Biden despite his struggles, and, if not, who else might be a viable alternative against Trump just three months before some states begin early voting.
“The debate has reset the race from the perspective of what it means if Biden continues on or if we go down an unprecedented and uncharted path of making a nominee switch because he decides to step aside,” he said. “Are there alternatives that would be competitive with Trump? The answer is there are two: Clinton and Harris, who have a small but significant lead.”