The world is home to a variety of religions, including Hinduism, Islam, Christianity, Buddhism, Jainism, Zoroastrianism, and Sikhism. Among these, Islam stands out as the fastest-growing religion globally. A report by the Pew Research Center titled The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050 projects a significant shift in global Muslim demographics. By 2050, India is expected to surpass Indonesia and become the country with the largest Muslim population, estimated at 311 million.
Muslim and Hindu Population Projections
According to the report, India’s Muslim population, which accounted for 14.4% of the total population in 2010, is projected to rise to 18.4% by 2050. This growth will make India home to 11% of the global Muslim population. Pakistan, currently second to Indonesia in terms of Muslim population, is expected to rank second globally by 2050, with 273 million Muslims. Indonesia, which held the top spot in 2010, is likely to fall to third place with 257 million Muslims.
In addition to the growth of the Muslim population, the report highlights the significant size of India’s Hindu population. By 2050, India is projected to have 1.03 billion Hindus, maintaining its position as the country with the largest Hindu population. Globally, Hindus will become the third-largest religious group by mid-century.
Currently, the Hindu population in India is not only substantial but also surpasses the Muslim populations of the largest Muslim-majority countries, including Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Bangladesh.
Fertility Rates and Age Dynamics
One key factor driving the rapid growth of India’s Muslim population is the higher fertility rate among Muslims. The Pew Research Center study notes that Muslim women in India have an average of 3.2 children, compared to 2.5 children for Hindu women and 2.3 children for Christian women. The younger median age of Muslims also contributes to this trend. Globally, the average age for Muslims is 22 years, compared to 26 years for Hindus and 28 years for Christians.
This demographic advantage, coupled with higher fertility rates, positions the Muslim population to grow more rapidly than other religious groups in India. Meanwhile, the growth rate for Hindus and Christians is expected to be more moderate, with India’s Christian population decreasing slightly from 2.5% of the total population in 2010 to 2.3% by 2050.
Global Growth of Islam
The report also emphasizes Islam’s position as the fastest-growing major religion worldwide. In 2010, there were 1.6 billion Muslims globally, making up approximately 23% of the world’s population. By 2050, the Muslim population is expected to reach 2.8 billion, an increase of 73%. This growth rate is significantly faster than the global population’s projected growth of 35% during the same period.
As of now, Islam is the second-largest religion after Christianity. However, current demographic trends suggest that by the end of this century, Muslims could outnumber Christians globally. This is attributed to higher fertility rates and a younger median age among Muslims compared to other religious groups.
Regional Distribution of Muslims
A substantial majority of the world’s Muslim population resides in the Asia-Pacific region. As of now, approximately 72% of Muslims live in this region, which includes countries like Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran, and Turkey. Indonesia, currently home to the largest Muslim population, will cede this position to India by 2050.
The projected demographic shift is a significant milestone in global religious dynamics. By mid-century, India’s Muslim population, at 310 million, will surpass Indonesia’s, marking a historic change in the distribution of the world’s Muslim population.
Future Implications
The Pew Research Center’s findings underscore the transformative impact of demographic trends on the global religious landscape. The rapid growth of the Muslim population, both in India and worldwide, reflects broader patterns of fertility, age distribution, and regional concentrations. These changes have implications for cultural, social, and political dynamics in the decades to come.
As the report concludes, “The future of the world’s religions is being shaped by two overarching factors: differences in fertility rates and the size of youth populations among the world’s major religions.” These trends are poised to redefine religious demographics and influence global interactions in significant ways.