India, the world’s most populous country, has not conducted a national census since 2011, breaking a long-standing tradition of tracking demographic changes every ten years. This prolonged delay has left policymakers, social workers, and economists struggling with outdated data, making it difficult to address social and economic challenges effectively.
As Suman Musadkar, a social worker in Mumbai’s Govandi neighborhood, walked through its narrow alleyways, she could only estimate the local population. “The population is around 6,000 people,” she told CBC News, but she lacked precise figures on the number of children or vulnerable individuals needing assistance. Without updated census data, critical social services, such as maternal health and malnutrition interventions, remain inadequate.
Why Has the Census Been Delayed?
India has conducted a census every decade since 1872. However, the COVID-19 pandemic initially forced officials to postpone the 2021 survey. While that delay was understandable, experts are now questioning why the process has still not started four years later.
Pronab Sen, a former chief statistician of India, warned that sample surveys used to estimate economic indicators, inflation, and employment become increasingly unreliable the further removed they are from the last census. “There’s a massive information gap,” he told CBC News, noting that policymakers are working with outdated data as India’s population continues to grow and migrate.
Despite repeated calls to resume the census, India’s Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah said in September that the government would begin the process “very soon,” though no updates have followed.
Political and Economic Implications
The delay has sparked political controversy, with the opposition Congress Party repeatedly pressing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government for answers. Senior Congress leader Sonia Gandhi argued that 140 million Indians are being denied benefits under the national food security law because outdated population data underestimates the number of eligible recipients.
Adding to the debate, the Congress has demanded that the census include a “caste census,” which would provide updated data on India’s social hierarchy. Caste-based inequality remains a significant issue, with the richest 5% of Indians controlling 60% of the country’s wealth, according to Oxfam International. While India has implemented affirmative action policies to address caste disparities, they have been based only on estimates, as the country has not conducted a caste census since 1931.
Critics suspect the Modi government may be deliberately delaying the census to avoid releasing politically sensitive data. Some analysts argue that if the census had been a priority, it would have been conducted immediately after the pandemic in 2021. Others suggest that the government may be reluctant to enumerate the population sizes of disadvantaged groups, fearing political consequences.
Challenges in Conducting the Census
Organizing India’s census is a mammoth task, requiring an estimated 2.5 million government workers to be temporarily reassigned as census enumerators. The pandemic also triggered mass migration within the country, further complicating data collection. “We don’t know where they’ve gone,” Sen said, explaining that many people moved from cities back to rural areas but were never officially tracked.
Despite growing concerns from economists, social workers, and policymakers, there has been little public pressure from government ministries. “Every ministry that delivers public welfare should be yelling and screaming about the lack of updated statistics,” Sen said. “I don’t even hear that.”
Until a new census is conducted, India’s policymakers will continue to operate with incomplete and outdated data, making it difficult to allocate resources effectively and address the country’s growing economic and social disparities.