The government-appointed panel which studied the mathematical progression of Covid-19 numbers in the country said only 30 per cent of the population has developed immunity so far. The Centre had appointed a 10-member committee, headed by NITI Aayog member VK Paul, to study the mathematical progression of Covid-19 virus in India. The committee submitted its report on a day Union health minister Harsh Vardhan admitted community transmission of Covid-19 in certain pockets of a limited number of states in the country.
The study sheds light on where India stands in its fight against Covid-19 and what lies ahead.
- India may see an exponential increase of 26 lakh cases in a month because of the festival season if precautions are not followed.
- Kerala, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal are still seeing a rise in the number of cases, while elsewhere the pandemic has stabilised.
- A second wave of coronavirus can’t be ruled out in winter.
- Local lockdown are not effective now, but had there been no lockdown in March-April, India’s total deaths could have exceeded 25 lakh in August. The death toll now stands at 1.14 lakh.
- Only 30 per cent of the population has developed immunity so far.
- India reached the peak of Covid-19 in September and is now on the downward slope.
- The crisis is likely to be over by February 2021. By that time, there could be 10.5 million cases.
- Migrants didn’t make much difference to the number of overall infections.
- We have to be careful in the coming months also because of pollution on north India.
- The curve is flattened and early lockdown bolstered by better-equipped health care system helped in flattening the curve.