Covid-19 deaths in India may have exceeded 2.5 million: What expert panel says about lockdown, festivals

The government-appointed panel which studied the mathematical progression of Covid-19 numbers in the country said only 30 per cent of the population has developed immunity so far. The Centre had appointed a 10-member committee, headed by NITI Aayog member VK Paul, to study the mathematical progression of Covid-19 virus in India. The committee submitted its report on a day Union health minister Harsh Vardhan admitted community transmission of Covid-19 in certain pockets of a limited number of states in the country.

The study sheds light on where India stands in its fight against Covid-19 and what lies ahead.

  1. India may see an exponential increase of 26 lakh cases in a month because of the festival season if precautions are not followed.
  2. Kerala, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal are still seeing a rise in the number of cases, while elsewhere the pandemic has stabilised.
  3. A second wave of coronavirus can’t be ruled out in winter.
  4. Local lockdown are not effective now, but had there been no lockdown in March-April, India’s total deaths could have exceeded 25 lakh in August. The death toll now stands at 1.14 lakh.
  5. Only 30 per cent of the population has developed immunity so far.
  6. India reached the peak of Covid-19 in September and is now on the downward slope.
  7. The crisis is likely to be over by February 2021. By that time, there could be 10.5 million cases.
  8. Migrants didn’t make much difference to the number of overall infections.
  9. We have to be careful in the coming months also because of pollution on north India.
  10. The curve is flattened and early lockdown bolstered by better-equipped health care system helped in flattening the curve.

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