India, currently the world’s most populous nation, is experiencing a decline in its population growth rate, as indicated by a recent report from the economic research department of the State Bank of India. The report, titled “Precursor to Census 2024: The Fine Prints of a Rapidly Changing Nation,” estimates India’s population in 2024 to be between 138 and 142 crore.
Despite an increase in absolute numbers, the growth rate of the population is decreasing. According to the report, the average annual exponential growth rate has fallen from 1.63 percent in 2011 to 1.2 percent in 2024. This growth rate peaked at 2.22 percent in 1971. The reduction in growth rate suggests that India’s population will grow at a slower pace over the coming decade.
As indicated by the report’s title, the study was published in anticipation of the forthcoming census. Union Home Minister Amit Shah announced on September 17 that the census process, which had been halted due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, is set to resume shortly.
The SBI report notes that while southern states, including Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, are contributing less to national population growth compared to 2011, northern states, particularly Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, are experiencing significant increases. It is projected that these two states will account for approximately 33 percent of the overall population growth.
Furthermore, the combined share of the northern and eastern regions has risen to about 52 percent, up from 51 percent in 2011. In contrast, both the eastern and southern regions are witnessing a decrease in their population shares relative to a decade earlier.
The report also analyzed data on the number of births, adjusting for infant mortality rates from total live births, revealing that both North and East India are leading the population growth. In the southern region, however, the number of annual births is continuously declining. “In the southern region, where addition to yearly babies (after adjustment) are declining uninterruptedly,” the report noted.
In 2001, the number of babies born was 24.2 million, which rose to 25.1 million in the 2011 census. Projections for 2024 suggest an increase to 26.7 million births.
The youth population in India, defined as those aged 15 to 59, has shown an upward trend since 1971 and is expected to reach 64.4 percent by 2021, with a further increase to 65.2 percent by 2031, according to the report. This trend is promising for the nation’s productivity.
India’s median age is projected to rise from 24 years in 2021 to between 28 and 29 years by 2023-24, solidifying its status as one of the youngest nations globally. This suggests that while the overall population growth is slowing, the working-age population is set to expand.
“India fares quite well on this parameter with China, whose median age now comes to 39.5 years against 34.5 years in 2011… The demographic dividends can be huge and a growth multiplier in the coming decade,” the report elaborated.
As India’s demographic dividend increases, it has the potential to act as a significant catalyst for economic growth in the years ahead.
