Donald Trump’s recent electoral victory stemmed from his ability to erode support among groups once considered pivotal for Democrats to hold the White House. Post-Obama’s historic 2008 victory, there was optimism within the Democratic camp that a “coalition of the ascendant”—younger people, minorities, college-educated individuals, and blue-collar workers—would secure their dominance for generations. This coalition was culturally progressive and endorsed a robust government role in social welfare, potentially cementing a Democratic hold on the presidency for years. Optimists believed “demography is destiny,” counting on the decreasing population of older, conservative white voters as non-white Americans were expected to form the majority by 2044.
However, over time, signs of vulnerability in the Democratic coalition emerged. Non-college-educated voters began drifting away, particularly noticeable during the 2010 and 2014 midterms, and their defection to Trump in 2016 marked a substantial loss. Though Joe Biden reclaimed enough of these voters in 2020 to win, Trump’s 2024 comeback demonstrated that the cracks in this coalition had deepened.
A New Coalition for Trump
In his 2024 campaign, Trump expanded his base beyond blue-collar workers by capturing a significant share of young, Latino, and Black voters. According to exit polls, he managed to secure 13% of the Black vote compared to John McCain’s 4% against Obama, 46% of the Latino vote versus McCain’s 31%, 43% of voters under 30 compared to McCain’s 32%, and a commanding 56% of those without a college degree, a group Obama had previously won. Trump celebrated this achievement, attributing it to a realignment within the electorate, remarking, “I started to see realignment could happen because the Democrats are not in line with the thinking of the country.”
Trump’s appeal was bolstered by a hardline stance on immigration, a key campaign point involving strict border enforcement and mass deportation policies. Biden and his Democratic allies refrained from such hardline measures, largely to avoid alienating immigrant-rights advocates. As a result, illegal border crossings surged under the Biden administration, with over eight million encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border. Kevin Marino Cabrera, a Miami-Dade County commissioner, pointed out that Democrats had moved significantly left on immigration, noting, “It’s funny how far to the left [the Democrats] have gone.”
This shift enabled Trump to secure Miami-Dade, a heavily Latino region in Florida, becoming the first Republican to do so since 1988. He also won Starr County in south Texas, a region with a 97% Latino population, with 57% of the vote—an area where only 15% voted for McCain in 2008. Anti-Trump Republican strategist Mike Madrid noted the limitations of the Democrats’ “demography is destiny” strategy, arguing it incorrectly assumed that all non-white voters shared a common political identity. “That is not and nor has it ever been the way Latinos have viewed themselves,” Madrid explained.
For some Black voters, the Democratic Party’s approach also felt limiting. Kenard Holmes, a South Carolina student, expressed frustration during the primaries, saying, “I hate that if you’re Black, you’ve got to be a Democrat or you hate Black people and you hate your community.” He shared that he felt Democratic leaders took Black voters’ support for granted.
Electoral Gains in Counties and Cities
As states continued counting votes, early results showed Trump’s electoral reach had expanded in at least 2,367 counties, with a reduction in support in only 240. For Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, it was essential to generate strong support in urban centers to counter Trump’s dominance in rural areas. Yet, she fell short of expectations, winning just 63% in Wayne County, Detroit, compared to Biden’s 68% in 2020 and Obama’s 74% in 2008.
Economic issues, along with immigration, topped voter concerns. Polls indicated that Trump had an edge over Harris in these areas, and his messaging, devoid of identity politics, appealed across racial lines. Nicole Williams, a Las Vegas bartender, commented, “We’re just sick of hearing about identity politics…We’re just American, and we just want what’s best for Americans.”
Democrats Grapple with the Loss
The Democrats are now in a period of introspection as they come to terms with Trump’s sweeping victory, which handed Republicans control of the White House, Senate, and possibly the House of Representatives. Left-wing figures like Bernie Sanders criticized the Democrats for focusing too much on identity politics at the expense of working-class voters. Some centrists, however, believe the issues extend beyond the economy and immigration, pointing to Trump’s success in using cultural issues to fracture the Democratic coalition.
Among the positions that Republicans spotlighted were proposals to reduce law enforcement funding, decriminalize certain border crossings, and bolster protections for transgender Americans. These policies, initially popularized after George Floyd’s murder and the rise of the Black Lives Matter movement, had become vulnerabilities when appealing to broader voter demographics. Harris’s 2019 presidential bid, for instance, included support for policies that her opponents would later exploit, including taxpayer-funded gender transition surgeries for federal prisoners. The Trump campaign capitalized on this, releasing ads with slogans like, “Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.” These ads reportedly accounted for over $21 million of the campaign’s ad spending in October.
Representative Seth Moulton, a Massachusetts Democrat, suggested a more direct approach, saying, “Democrats spend way too much time trying not to offend anyone rather than being brutally honest about the challenges many Americans face.” Moulton highlighted his concern over policies affecting youth sports, reflecting a broader critique of Democratic stances on cultural issues.
On the other side, progressive Democrats defended their commitment to minority rights, asserting this stance as a core value. Congressman John Moran retorted on social media, stating, “You should find another job if you want to use an election loss as an opportunity to pick on our most vulnerable.”
Political strategist Mike Madrid offered a blunt critique of the Democratic coalition, describing it as an “unholy alliance” of working-class minorities and wealthier, culturally progressive white voters, bound primarily by opposition to Republicans. With that opposition weakened, the coalition’s cohesion was jeopardized.
Reflection and the Path Forward
Though future elections may occur under more favorable circumstances for Democrats, Trump’s unique ability to mobilize new and infrequent voters may be unmatched. However, the 2024 election results will likely continue to fuel Democratic soul-searching.
According to Harris’s campaign, the loss resulted from an unsettled public and residual economic and social disruptions from the Covid pandemic. “You stared down unprecedented headwinds and obstacles that were largely out of our control,” campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon wrote to the staff. Dillon noted that Harris’s performance in battleground states, though close, reflected the broader rightward shift across the nation.
This sentiment resonates with voters like Moses Santana, a Philadelphia resident who, despite identifying with a demographic that once leaned strongly Democratic, now questions the party’s effectiveness. “Joe Biden promised a lot of progressive things, like he was going to cancel student debt, he was going to help people get their citizenship,” Santana noted. “And none of that happened. Donald Trump is bringing [people] something new.”
