New analysis reveals that President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs may have suppressed job growth by up to 1 million positions and increased costs for American families by approximately $1,000 in 2025.
A recent report challenges the effectiveness of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, suggesting that the sweeping trade policy not only failed to revive American manufacturing but also hindered job creation across the country. The analysis, first obtained by Fox News Digital, comes in the wake of a Supreme Court ruling that struck down significant tariffs, prompting businesses to seek billions in refunds.
Trump’s global tariff rollout in April 2025 marked the most substantial increase in U.S. tariffs in decades. The policy was intended to fulfill a key economic promise: to stimulate a manufacturing renaissance, bring factory jobs back to American soil, and reduce dependence on foreign goods. However, researchers at the Advancing American Freedom Foundation argue that these objectives were not realized. Their report estimates that the tariffs resulted in up to 1 million fewer jobs nationwide than would have been expected based on pre-tariff trends.
The manufacturing sector, which the tariffs were designed to support, experienced particularly adverse effects. According to the report, approximately 75,000 manufacturing jobs were lost during the first year of the policy, translating to about 6,250 jobs per month. Richard Stern, vice president of the Plymouth Institute for Free Enterprise at Advancing American Freedom, stated, “We can say with an over 90% confidence level that manufacturing lost jobs because of the tariffs.”
Stern further explained that the tariffs backfired because many American manufacturers depend on imported components and equipment. “Most of the Americans that are importing are American businesses, especially American manufacturers and producers,” he noted. “So the tariffs really ended up being a tax on high-end American manufacturing.”
Despite the negative impact on employment, the tariffs generated significant revenue for the federal government. Duties collected surged from $9.6 billion in March 2025 to $23.9 billion by May, according to Treasury data. By the end of the 2025 fiscal year, tariff collections reached $215.2 billion, nearly three times the amount collected before the tariffs were implemented. In January alone, duties totaled $30.4 billion, a staggering increase of about 242% from the previous year.
However, the report from the Advancing American Freedom Foundation, founded by former Vice President Mike Pence in 2021, argues that the revenue success came at a steep cost. The analysis found that employment growth weakened across most sectors after the tariffs were enacted, with manufacturing and trade-related industries suffering the most. Researchers concluded that there was a 99.9% probability that job growth slowed following the policy change.
When approached for comment regarding the report’s findings, White House spokesman Kush Desai did not address the claims directly. Instead, he criticized the organization, stating, “Another useless memo is still not going to make Mike Pence relevant again.”
Beyond the employment issues, the report highlights the increased financial burden on American households and businesses. Approximately 90% of the tariff burden fell on U.S. importers rather than foreign producers. The authors estimate that the average American family incurred about $1,000 in additional costs related to tariffs in 2025.
While businesses are pursuing refunds following the Supreme Court’s ruling, Stern emphasized that such repayments cannot undo the broader economic damage inflicted during the tariff period. “You can’t undo the damage. You can’t undo a factory,” he remarked. “There are many that closed in America because they couldn’t get their hands on products used for manufacturing.”
The report ultimately concludes that the tariffs “unlawfully taxed American families, wiped out nearly a million jobs, and were ultimately ruled illegal.” These findings contribute a new perspective to the ongoing debate surrounding Trump’s trade agenda, challenging the assertion that higher tariffs would successfully revive domestic manufacturing and create American jobs.
According to Fox News Digital, the implications of this analysis may resonate as discussions about trade policies continue in the political arena.