Republican lawmakers are increasingly concerned that President Trump’s trade war could politically hurt their party in 2026, as the effects of higher prices and slowing economic growth may overshadow other GOP achievements.
Several GOP senators are pointing to past elections—specifically those in 1932 and 1982—as cautionary examples of how trade wars and inflation have previously cost Republicans at the ballot box. They fear that history may repeat itself.
Many in the Republican Party view tariffs as a de facto tax increase on American consumers. Some lawmakers have observed that in the last two major instances when Congress passed tax increases similar in scope to Trump’s recent tariffs, the president’s party experienced heavy electoral losses.
“In the national elections, you can go back to 1982 when I think it was about 26 congressional seats that were lost [by Republicans],” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is expected to be one of the top Democratic targets in the upcoming midterms.
That year marked President Reagan’s first midterm election, and Republicans lost 26 seats in the House, largely due to soaring interest rates and widespread public dissatisfaction with the economy. Republicans also lost one Senate seat in that election cycle.
That same year, Congress passed the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act. The law raised corporate and excise taxes and enhanced tax compliance, ultimately increasing federal revenues by close to 1 percent, as noted by the nonpartisan Tax Foundation.
“No doubt, if we’re having the same discussions about tariffs in February of next year, all the indicators would be ‘wrong track,’” Tillis added.
He emphasized that the Trump administration must deliver on its promises of beneficial trade agreements by February of the following year or risk facing significant political consequences.
“They’ve got about 10 months to wrap a bow around this and say, ‘See, I told you so,’ or you’re going to start seeing political headwinds,” Tillis warned.
Another significant election in Republican memory is from 1994, when the GOP made a massive gain—winning 54 seats in the House and eight in the Senate—following President Clinton’s signing of the 1993 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, which raised taxes.
According to a report published Friday by the Tax Foundation, Trump’s current tariffs are expected to raise annual government revenue by 0.56 percent of the gross domestic product, representing the largest jump since Clinton’s 1993 tax hike.
Senators were initially relieved when Trump announced a 90-day suspension on most of the steep reciprocal tariffs he had declared against several countries. However, they note that political risks remain high, especially given Trump’s imposition of a 145 percent tariff on Chinese imports, which prompted a retaliatory 125 percent tariff from China on American goods.
While the stock market surged after Trump’s announcement of the 90-day pause, the rally was short-lived. Markets dropped again sharply on Thursday amid ongoing uncertainty over the U.S. economy. By Friday, some of those losses had been reversed.
Lawmakers expressed alarm over the sell-off in the bond markets, viewing it as a troubling signal for the overall economy. Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds climbed significantly during the week, reaching as high as 4.59 percent and 4.88 percent respectively, increasing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.
The 30-year Treasury yield, which heavily influences mortgage rates, experienced its sharpest weekly rise since 1982, according to Yahoo Finance.
A senior Republican aide in the Senate, who spoke on condition of anonymity, cautioned that Trump could undermine his strongest issue going into the 2024 election: the economy, which was the top priority for voters last year.
A Gallup survey published in October showed Trump enjoying a 9-point lead over then-Vice President Kamala Harris in terms of handling the economy.
However, an Economist/YouGov poll released this week revealed that Trump’s approval rating fell by five points compared to the previous week, largely due to the chaos caused by his tariff measures.
The impact of the tariffs has been particularly concerning in agricultural states.
“It’s not good for my farmers,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) last week, referring to the volatility in stock, bond, and commodity markets.
Rounds, who is running for reelection next year, added, “We’ve got a lot of people that rely on being able to sell our commodities around the world.”
China, Trump’s primary target for tariffs, imported $1.4 billion worth of goods from South Dakota in 2022, the most recent year for which data is available. That figure represents 28 percent of South Dakota’s total goods production.
Several Republicans are drawing comparisons between tariffs and tax hikes—both politically perilous territory in today’s GOP.
“Tariffs are a tax on consumers, and I’m not a fan of jacking up taxes on American consumers,” said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) during an interview with Fox Business’s Larry Kudlow.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) issued a strong warning to fellow Republicans, saying they risk major electoral defeats in the coming year unless they alter their stance on trade. He also warned that current trade policies could lead to a deep economic downturn.
Paul cited the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act as a historical parallel. Its two main architects—Sen. Reed Smoot (R-Utah) and Rep. Willis Hawley (R-Ore.)—were both voted out of office in the 1932 election.
Paul believes the tariffs of that era worsened the Great Depression and significantly damaged the Republican Party’s image for decades.
“We went into the wilderness for a long, long time,” he said. “The depression was multifactorial, but most historians have written that that Smoot-Hawley tariff actually made things worse and the depression longer.
“I don’t think the politics are good,” Paul concluded. “The economics of tariffs are bad; the politics, if anything, are worse.”
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has also been critical, arguing that Trump’s tariffs are steering the country toward a recession. He claims that the economic downturn is already affecting political sentiment in swing states.
“We are seeing it move the political needle across the country because people have less and less faith in Donald Trump’s handling of the economic policies of this country, plain and simple. We’re seeing it in just about every state, and the numbers continue to get worse for him,” Schumer stated at a recent press conference.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), another key target for Democrats in 2026, also criticized Trump’s tariffs on allied nations, particularly the 25 percent tariff imposed on Canadian goods.
She told The Hill she opposes tariffs on Canada due to the negative effects on Maine’s economy.
“I never thought that putting tariffs on friendly countries that are our allies is the way to go,” Collins said.
She recalled discussing the issue with Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro during the president’s first term.
“I remember [in] the first administration talking with Peter Navarro about the impact on the lobster industry. There are times when tariffs are appropriate. I think China is an example of that. The Canadian tariffs make no sense,” she said. “This is the position I’ve had for a very long time.”