Putin Updates Nuclear Doctrine Amid U.S.-Backed Strikes Inside Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday formalized a significant adjustment to his country’s nuclear weapons policy, lowering the threshold for deploying nuclear arms. This shift follows the U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to use American missiles to strike targets within Russian territory.

The Kremlin confirmed that Putin had ratified an updated nuclear doctrine, redefining the conditions under which Russia might initiate a nuclear strike. According to the revised policy, Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if attacked by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear-armed country.

The announcement came on the heels of Ukraine’s inaugural use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles against Russian territory. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that Ukraine targeted a military site in the Bryansk region using ATACMS missiles, supplied by the U.S. While Russian air defenses intercepted five missiles, debris from another caused a fire at the site, which was swiftly extinguished. The ministry stated there were no casualties or significant damage.

“According to confirmed data, the deployed ATACMS operational-tactical missiles were American-made,” the Defense Ministry noted in its statement.

Two U.S. officials corroborated the event, confirming to NBC News that Ukraine used ATACMS missiles in the Bryansk region near Karachev. This marks the first instance of U.S.-provided weaponry being employed within Russian borders. Previously, Ukraine had relied on domestically produced drones for strikes inside Russia, lacking the firepower of the ATACMS.

Ukraine’s military also acknowledged the strike, describing the target as a military arsenal in Bryansk. However, it refrained from specifying the weapons used in the attack.

The adjustments to Russia’s nuclear doctrine represent an escalation in rhetoric from Moscow, which has frequently hinted at the possibility of nuclear conflict since the outset of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine over 1,000 days ago.

“The nuclear doctrine update was required to bring the document in line with the current political situation,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told TASS, Russia’s state news agency, early Tuesday.

Peskov also framed the policy update as a response to Washington’s actions, suggesting that the U.S.’s decision to supply Ukraine with non-nuclear missiles for use against Russia could now prompt a nuclear retaliation under the new guidelines. He clarified, however, that deploying nuclear weapons would remain a “last resort measure.”

In Washington, State Department spokesperson Matt Miller described Russia’s doctrinal changes as predictable. “Since the beginning of its war of aggression against Ukraine, it has sought to coerce and intimidate both Ukraine and other countries around the world through irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and behavior,” Miller said. He added that “neither the United States nor NATO pose any threat to Russia.”

Earlier this year, Putin had hinted at the impending changes, cautioning the West against easing restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weaponry. The updated doctrine aligns with these warnings. It explicitly states that “aggression against the Russian Federation and its allies by a non-nuclear country with the support of a nuclear state will be considered a joint attack.”

Another significant amendment to the doctrine is its provision for nuclear use in response to a “critical threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and Belarus.” This broadens the conditions for nuclear engagement compared to previous language, which only allowed for such measures if “the very existence of the state is at risk.”

The shift in policy is partly motivated by heightened tensions between Russia and NATO. Putin has previously warned that NATO’s provision of long-range weapons to Ukraine for attacks on Russian soil could escalate the conflict to a direct war between NATO and Russia.

This policy revision coincides with the Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine limited use of ATACMS missiles inside Russian territory. The U.S. had previously resisted such moves, mindful of the potential to provoke Russia further. However, reports of North Korean troops bolstering Russian forces have led to a reassessment of U.S. strategy.

This recalibration has drawn criticism from Moscow. On Monday, Kremlin spokesperson Peskov accused Washington of “pouring oil on the fire” and provoking “further escalation of tension around this conflict.”

Tatiana Stanovaya, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and head of the political analysis firm R.Politik, said the updated doctrine gives Russia greater flexibility for a nuclear response to what it views as Western-backed strikes on its territory.

She suggested that the timing of the revisions might be linked to the political transition in the U.S. “Putin may see the current situation as a strategic ‘in-between’ moment — anticipating possible peace initiatives from (President-elect Donald) Trump while emphasizing what he views as the ‘irresponsibility’ of Biden’s policy,” Stanovaya wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

Stanovaya posited that Putin’s strategy could be to present the West with two stark options: “Do you want a nuclear war? You will have it,” or “Let’s end this war on Russia’s terms.”

“This marks an extraordinarily dangerous juncture,” she concluded.

The doctrinal changes also extend to Russia’s response if Belarus, its close ally, is attacked. Putin had earlier emphasized that aggression against Belarus would be treated as aggression against Russia, further solidifying their mutual defense pact.

As tensions continue to mount, these developments underline the fragile balance of power and the growing risks associated with the ongoing conflict.