U.S. economic pressure on Iran has reached unprecedented levels, but inconsistent enforcement of sanctions may hinder their full impact, according to a former Treasury expert.
U.S. economic pressure on Iran has escalated to historic levels, marking one of the most significant points of leverage in decades. However, inconsistent enforcement of sanctions has limited their effectiveness, according to Miad Maleki, a former Treasury sanctions expert.
In a recent interview, Maleki, who played a crucial role in the Treasury Department’s sanctions campaigns against Iran and its proxy networks, stated that the current situation represents a rare convergence of economic, political, and diplomatic pressure on Tehran. “We’ve never had the level of leverage that we have today with Iran in the history of our conflict … since 1979,” he remarked.
This assessment comes as President Donald Trump recently indicated an escalation of pressure on Iran, asserting on Truth Social that the United States has “total control over the Strait of Hormuz,” which he claimed is “sealed up tight” until Iran agrees to a deal.
Maleki emphasized that the current moment signifies a turning point, as multiple pressure mechanisms—including sanctions, a U.S. naval blockade, and stricter enforcement—are being applied simultaneously for the first time in years. Unlike previous cycles, he noted that the strategy now directly targets Iran’s oil exports and the networks facilitating them, increasing the risk of a rapid economic downturn.
According to Maleki, Iran could exhaust its oil storage capacity within two to three weeks, necessitating production cuts. He warned that gasoline shortages could also emerge on a similar timeline due to the country’s heavy reliance on imports. Coupled with an estimated $435 million in daily economic losses, this pressure could spill into the financial system, straining the regime’s ability to pay salaries and raising the risk of renewed civil unrest.
Maleki described the Iranian economy as “on the verge of collapse,” a situation exacerbated by years of sanctions and recent disruptions. He highlighted alarming indicators, including triple-digit food inflation, a sharply devalued currency, and a staggering 90% decline in purchasing power, alongside potential long-term oil revenue losses of up to $14 billion annually.
Currently, Iran is facing significant economic challenges, costing the nation approximately $435 million a day in combined economic damage due to the blockade and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway has long been viewed as one of Iran’s primary tools of leverage in global energy markets, but Maleki noted that the dynamics have shifted.
He explained that Iran’s economy is more dependent on the Strait of Hormuz than any other nation, suggesting that its closure could be considered a form of “economic self-sabotage.” While countries in Asia, including Japan, South Korea, India, and China, are particularly vulnerable to disruptions, many have stockpiled reserves. “Japan’s oil reserve is pretty significant. Same with China,” Maleki stated.
Nevertheless, the region remains heavily reliant on the Strait, with approximately 75% of liquefied natural gas supplies for countries like India, China, and South Korea passing through this critical waterway. Within Iran, however, vulnerabilities are immediate. Despite possessing vast oil reserves, the country imports between 30 million to 60 million liters of gasoline daily to address a domestic shortfall of up to 35 million liters. “If they run out of gasoline… they’re going to have a major crisis domestically,” Maleki warned, noting that past shortages and price hikes have led to widespread protests.
The economic pressure on Iran is further intensified by a U.S. naval blockade aimed at crippling the regime’s oil exports, which serve as its primary revenue source. A senior administration official indicated that the Treasury Department is ramping up enforcement under what is termed the “Economic Fury” campaign, utilizing financial and maritime tools in tandem to undermine Iran’s revenue streams.
This strategy focuses on “systematically degrading Iran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds,” including constraining maritime trade through the naval blockade that targets Iran’s oil exports. Financial pressure is also expanding globally, with the Treasury warning banks in China, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman that facilitating Iranian trade could expose them to secondary sanctions, indicating a more aggressive enforcement approach beyond Iran’s borders.
Since 2025, the Treasury has issued sanctions on more than 1,000 targets under the current maximum pressure campaign, aimed at disrupting Iran’s oil trade and financial networks. The official noted that Iran is facing immediate logistical constraints, warning that storage capacity at Kharg Island—the country’s main oil export terminal—could be filled within days if exports remain blocked, potentially forcing production shut-ins.
The official also emphasized that Treasury will continue to freeze funds misappropriated by the “corrupt leadership on behalf of the people of Iran.” A new analysis from United Against Nuclear Iran indicated that the blockade is already deterring high-value shipments, even as some Iran-linked vessels continue to navigate the region.
Maleki pointed out that while sanctions are evidently having an impact, their effectiveness has been hampered by inconsistent enforcement across various U.S. administrations. Sanctions targeting Iran have been in place for years, focusing on the country’s oil exports, banking sector, and access to global financial systems. Under the Obama administration, sanctions pressure was partially alleviated under the nuclear deal, while the first Trump administration reimposed “maximum pressure,” albeit with gradual enforcement that lasted only a limited time. The Biden administration later eased enforcement in pursuit of diplomacy.
Maleki argued that cycles of tightening and relief—including sanctions rollbacks under the Iran nuclear deal and pauses in enforcement—have allowed Tehran to adapt. “What’s different now,” he said, “is the combination of sustained sanctions with real-time enforcement measures that directly restrict Iran’s ability to export oil,” a step that was largely absent in earlier phases.
To maximize pressure, Maleki asserted that Washington must maintain enforcement, particularly through secondary sanctions targeting foreign banks and companies facilitating Iranian trade. He expressed skepticism about the likelihood of outside powers providing relief to Iran. “I can’t really point to any other nation… that is going to jump in and give the Iranian regime a lifeline,” he stated.
As the situation unfolds, Maleki warned that Iran may soon face not only gasoline shortages and oil production disruptions but also a significant banking crisis that could hinder the government’s ability to pay salaries for public employees and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). “Iranians run out of patience again, as they did before, and they’re back on the street,” he cautioned, adding uncertainty about whether unpaid IRGC forces would be willing to suppress their fellow citizens amid widespread grievances stemming from a collapsing economy.
These insights highlight the precarious state of Iran’s economy and the potential for significant unrest as external pressures mount, underscoring the complex interplay of sanctions, enforcement, and domestic vulnerabilities.
According to Fox News, the situation remains fluid as the U.S. continues to apply pressure on Iran.