Trump’s Strategy for Ending the Russia-Ukraine War Takes Shape, Amid Multiple Proposals and Uncertainty

President-elect Donald Trump’s national security adviser designate, Mike Waltz, has been reviewing various strategies to resolve the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, including proposals from Gen. Keith Kellogg, who was recently appointed as special envoy to the two countries. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that while the specifics of the approach are still in development, one of the key initial steps likely to be advocated by Trump’s team is a ceasefire to temporarily freeze the conflict while both sides enter negotiations. In addition, Trump’s administration is expected to encourage European allies and NATO to share more of the financial burden for supporting Ukraine.

“We need to bring this to a responsible end,” Waltz told Fox News over the weekend. “We need to restore deterrence, restore peace, and get ahead of this escalation ladder, rather than responding to it.”

During his campaign, Trump repeatedly stated that if he had been president, the Russia-Ukraine war would never have started. He also vowed to put an end to the conflict, sometimes claiming that he could resolve the situation in a single day. In his September presidential debate against Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump refused to explicitly commit to Ukraine’s victory over Russia. Later that month, he suggested that Ukraine should have been more willing to make concessions to Moscow, claiming that “any deal, even the worst deal, would have been better than what we have right now.”

The proposals Waltz is considering include one from Gen. Keith Kellogg, who served as an adviser on national security during Trump’s first term. Trump expressed his satisfaction with Kellogg’s appointment, saying, “I am very pleased to nominate General Keith Kellogg to serve as Assistant to the President and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia. Keith has led a distinguished Military and Business career, including serving in highly sensitive National Security roles in my first Administration. He was with me right from the beginning! Together, we will secure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, and Make America, and the World, SAFE AGAIN!”

Kellogg’s plan suggests that continued U.S. military aid to Ukraine should be contingent upon Ukraine’s active participation in peace talks with Russia. It also calls for a formal U.S. policy aimed at seeking a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine conflict. Furthermore, the proposal recommends postponing Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, which would be used as leverage to bring Russia to the negotiating table.

Waltz has also reviewed an alternative proposal supported by Trump’s former ambassador to Germany, Ric Grenell, which includes the creation of “autonomous regions” within Ukraine. However, Grenell has not yet provided detailed explanations on what such regions would entail. In a previous interview, Grenell stated, “Autonomous regions can mean a lot of things to a lot of people, but you got to work through those details.”

Another proposal under consideration is one that could see Russia retaining control over its current territory in exchange for Ukraine receiving NATO membership. However, few figures within Trump’s inner circle seem keen on the idea of Ukraine joining NATO in the near future, a view that aligns with the Biden administration’s stance. President Joe Biden’s team has stated that while Ukraine will eventually join NATO, that process will only occur once the war has concluded.

Ukraine has been a central topic in Waltz’s discussions with Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser. Following these talks, a Trump transition spokesman confirmed the president-elect’s commitment to ending the war. Trump communications director Steven Cheung remarked, “As President Trump has said on the campaign trail, he is the only person who can bring both sides together in order to negotiate peace, and work towards ending the war and stopping the killing.”

While the Trump administration is exploring different paths to end the conflict, sources caution that it is still “too early” to define the strategy’s final shape. Trump’s approach to foreign policy, particularly with regard to the Ukraine war, is often subject to change, and the transition process suggests that the overall strategy remains fluid. One source involved in internal transition discussions noted that Trump’s positions tend to evolve, meaning his plans for Ukraine will likely shift over time.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been vocal about his hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the war, stating earlier this month, “From our side, we must do everything so that this war ends next year, ends through diplomatic means.” However, Zelensky has also rejected the idea of a ceasefire unless security guarantees from the West are included. Reflecting on past attempts to negotiate peace, Zelensky warned, “Ceasefire? We tried that in 2014, we tried to reach it and then we lost Crimea and then we had the full-scale war in 2022.”

Zelensky also remarked during a conference in Budapest that he believes Trump genuinely wants a swift resolution to the war. He noted, “I believe that President Trump really wants a quick decision to end the war. He wants this war to be finished. We all want to end this war, but a fair ending. … If it is very fast, it’s going to be a loss for Ukraine.”

Trump’s allies, who have been appointed to key national security positions, have indicated that the president-elect is considering various strategies to bring both Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table. Some of these options appear to contradict his past statements on the conflict. For instance, Sebastian Gorka, recently appointed as one of Waltz’s top deputies, referred to Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “thug” and suggested that the U.S. might increase military aid to Ukraine to expedite an end to the war. In a recent interview with Times Radio, Gorka said, “I will give one tip away that the president has mentioned, he will say to that murderous former KGB colonel, that thug who runs the Russian federation, you will negotiate now or the aid we have given to Ukraine thus far will look like peanuts. That’s how he will force those gentlemen to come to an arrangement that stops the bloodshed.”

Simultaneously, Trump’s team is considering taking a firm stance with Ukraine as well. One source familiar with the discussions noted that Trump may threaten to withhold aid from Ukraine unless the country agrees to negotiate with Russia. This approach would complement efforts to pressure Moscow while ensuring Ukraine is brought to the table for talks.

In recent weeks, the Biden administration allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-made long-range missiles to strike targets within Russian territory. This decision followed months of lobbying from Zelensky, who had requested approval to use the ATACMS missiles. The U.S. granted this request in mid-November. Additionally, the Biden administration lifted a restriction on U.S. contractors working in Ukraine, enabling faster repairs of advanced systems like F-16 fighter jets and Patriot missile defense systems.

As Trump prepares to take office, the war in Ukraine remains a key focus for his administration. The proposed strategies are still in flux, with Trump and his team considering a range of options to bring about a resolution. While the specific approach may change over time, Trump’s commitment to ending the war and bringing peace to the region remains a central priority.