American voters are increasingly divided across various lines, including gender, race, and geography, all of which are commonly used to explain the current state of politics. The gender divide has been particularly prominent, with more women supporting Democrats—a gap likely to widen after the fall of Roe v. Wade, which turned the U.S. into a patchwork of states with either abortion rights or abortion bans. This issue may significantly affect upcoming elections.
In addition to gender, the role of race remains a pivotal factor. Former President Donald Trump’s ability to draw support from voters of color, especially among Latinos and Black men, could play a decisive role in key battleground states where close margins are expected. Geographical divisions are also clear, with rural voters typically favoring Republicans and urban voters leaning towards Democrats. The suburbs, however, remain a crucial battleground, with the candidate who can sway these voters likely to emerge victorious in November.
However, according to longtime Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik, who served as former President Bill Clinton’s political director, the most significant divide in modern American politics is education. Sosnik is well known for his detailed political analyses, and he believes that the current education gap is reshaping the political landscape.
The Rise of the Education Gap
“The biggest single, best predictor of how someone’s going to vote in American politics now is education level. That is now the new fault line in American politics,” Sosnik explained on the “CNN Political Briefing” podcast. He attributes this growing divide to Trump’s influence over the past three election cycles, which accelerated an education-based political realignment that had been slowly forming since the 1970s. According to Sosnik, the roots of this shift trace back to the early days of the decline of the middle class in America.
As the U.S. continues its transition into a 21st-century economy, a stark division has emerged between those who attain higher education and those who do not. “That’s become the basic Democratic Party,” Sosnik said, referring to the more educated segment of society. Conversely, those who feel left behind by economic changes have coalesced into the core of the modern Republican base.
Economic Inequality and Political Alignment
This education gap is closely tied to growing economic inequality in the U.S., with data backing up Sosnik’s claims. A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in August highlighted the stark differences in wealth between households led by college graduates and those without higher education. According to the report, for every dollar of wealth in a household headed by a college graduate, a household headed by a high school graduate has just 22 cents. The disparity improves slightly for households headed by someone with some college education but no degree, who hold 30 cents for every dollar of wealth in a college graduate’s household.
In broader terms, college graduates account for about three-quarters of the nation’s wealth, despite making up only around 40% of the population. The political implications of this economic divide are clear: voters with a college degree made up 41% of the electorate in 2020, according to CNN’s exit polls, and 55% of them supported President Joe Biden, while 43% backed Trump. On the other hand, Trump maintained a strong grip on about two-thirds of White voters without a college degree, but he struggled to win over White college-educated voters.
How Education Shapes Battleground States
Sosnik took his analysis further by explaining that the battleground states, where the 2024 election is likely to be decided, also fall in the middle of the national spectrum on educational attainment. These states—such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in the Rust Belt, and Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona in the Sun Belt—are not significantly skewed toward either highly educated or less-educated populations, which is why they remain competitive.
A report from the Lumina Foundation, using census data, ranks states by levels of educational attainment, including post-high school certifications and associate degrees. This ranking supports Sosnik’s point: the battleground states typically hover around the national average in terms of education. One notable exception is Nevada, a battleground state with one of the lowest educational attainment levels in the country. Interestingly, some states with high educational attainment, such as those in the Northeast, tend to be solidly Democratic, while Utah, a conservative state, ranks near the top in education levels.
The New Swing Voters
In this shifting landscape, the traditional concept of swing voters—those who can be persuaded to choose between candidates—is evolving. Sosnik identified two groups of swing voters in the 2024 election. The first group consists of political independents or moderate Republicans, such as supporters of Nikki Haley, who may still be swayed by campaign messaging.
However, Sosnik emphasized a second, potentially more influential group of swing voters. These individuals are not choosing between candidates; instead, they are deciding whether to vote at all. For Trump, this group consists primarily of non-college-educated White men who, if they turn out to vote, will almost certainly support him. For Harris, the critical swing voters might be women who do not typically vote but are motivated by the Supreme Court’s ruling on abortion to participate in the 2024 election.
Young voters, who have historically been less reliable at the polls, also fall into this second category of swing voters. Sosnik noted that Trump’s political success has largely been built on appealing to those who are not traditional voters, a strategy that has redefined how campaigns are run and elections are won.
A New Paradigm in Presidential Elections
Sosnik argued that the growing importance of education in politics has also flipped a long-standing trend in voter turnout between presidential and midterm elections. Traditionally, Democrats have performed better in presidential elections, thanks to infrequent voters who are more likely to align with the Democratic Party. In contrast, Republicans tended to fare better in midterm elections when high-propensity voters, who are often more conservative, dominated the electorate.
However, this pattern has been upended in the Trump era. “Up until Trump, Democrats always did better in presidential years because infrequent voters were Democratic,” Sosnik explained. “Republicans always did better in off years because the high propensity voters were Republican. That’s completely flipped on its side now.”
As the 2024 election approaches, the educational divide appears poised to play a defining role. With both parties vying for the support of suburban voters and attempting to mobilize their respective bases, education will likely remain the critical factor shaping the future of American politics.