Donald Trump has prioritized the large-scale deportation of undocumented foreign nationals as a key policy, with reports indicating that U.S. authorities have identified approximately 18,000 Indian nationals suspected of entering the country illegally.
During his recent visit to Washington, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged the issue, stating that India would repatriate its citizens residing unlawfully in the U.S. while also intensifying efforts to dismantle the “human trafficking ecosystem.”
“These are children of very ordinary families, and they are lured by big dreams and promises,” Modi remarked.
Now, a new study by Abby Budiman and Devesh Kapur from Johns Hopkins University offers a detailed examination of the numbers, demographics, entry methods, locations, and trends of undocumented Indian nationals in the U.S. over time.
The Size of the Undocumented Indian Population
Unauthorized immigrants constitute approximately 3% of the U.S. population and 22% of all foreign-born residents. However, estimates regarding the number of undocumented Indians vary significantly due to differing methodologies.
According to Pew Research Center and the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS), there were about 700,000 undocumented Indians in 2022, making them the third-largest group after Mexico and El Salvador. Conversely, the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) estimated 375,000, placing India fifth among countries of origin.
Official data from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reported a much lower figure of 220,000 unauthorized Indian immigrants in 2022. The stark differences between these estimates underscore the uncertainty surrounding the true number of undocumented Indian nationals.
Decline from Peak Levels
While Indian migrants form only a small fraction of the overall unauthorized population in the U.S., their numbers have fluctuated over time. If Pew and CMS estimates are correct, nearly one in four Indian immigrants in the U.S. lacks legal status—an unlikely scenario, given broader migration trends.
The DHS estimated a sharp decline in undocumented Indians, dropping 60% from a peak of 560,000 in 2016 to 220,000 in 2022. However, the reasons for this decline remain unclear. Kapur suggests that possible explanations include some individuals obtaining legal status or voluntarily returning to India, particularly during COVID-19-related disruptions.
Despite an increase in border crossings by Indians in 2023, U.S. government estimates showed no significant rise in the overall undocumented Indian population between 2020 and 2022.
Encounters, a term used to describe instances where non-citizens are apprehended by U.S. authorities at borders with Mexico or Canada, have risen. However, visa overstays among Indians have remained steady at around 1.5% since 2016.
Additionally, the number of Indian beneficiaries of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which provides protections for migrants who arrived as children, has declined from 2,600 in 2017 to 1,600 in 2024.
Overall, the share of undocumented Indians among all unauthorized immigrants rose from 0.8% in 1990 to 3.9% in 2015, before declining to 2% in 2022.
Changing Migration Routes and Increased Border Crossings
The U.S. has two major land borders: the southern border, which spans Arizona, California, New Mexico, and Texas, and the northern border, covering 11 states adjacent to Canada.
Before 2010, the number of Indians apprehended at these borders was minimal, never exceeding 1,000 encounters annually. However, since 2010, nearly all recorded encounters involving Indian nationals occurred at the U.S.-Mexico border.
A notable shift occurred in 2024, with 36% of Indian border crossings happening at the U.S.-Canada border—up from just 4% the previous year. Canada has become an increasingly viable entry point for Indian nationals due to shorter visa processing times compared to the U.S.
The overall surge in migration attempts since 2021 reached a peak in 2023, coinciding with a broader trend of increased border crossings following Joe Biden’s election.
“This is not specific to Indians. It is part of a larger surge of migrants trying to come into the U.S. after Biden was elected. It is as if there was a high tide of migrants and Indians were a part of it,” Kapur explained.
Where Are Undocumented Indians Residing?
The study found that the states with the largest Indian immigrant populations—California (112,000), Texas (61,000), New Jersey (55,000), New York (43,000), and Illinois (31,000)—also host the highest numbers of unauthorized Indian immigrants.
Indians constitute a significant share of the total undocumented population in several states, including Ohio (16%), Michigan (14%), New Jersey (12%), and Pennsylvania (11%). Additionally, states such as Tennessee, Indiana, Georgia, Wisconsin, and California have over 20% of their Indian immigrant population lacking legal status.
“We expect this because it’s easier to blend in and find work in an ethnic business—like a Gujarati working for a Gujarati-American or a Punjabi/Sikh in a similar setup,” Kapur noted.
Asylum Seekers from India
The U.S. immigration system permits individuals detained at the border who fear persecution in their home countries to undergo “credible fear screenings.” Those who pass these screenings can apply for asylum in court, leading to an increase in asylum applications alongside rising border apprehensions.
While administrative data does not provide a detailed demographic breakdown of Indian asylum seekers, court records based on spoken languages offer some insight.
Punjabi speakers from India have accounted for 66% of asylum claims from 2001 to 2022, followed by Hindi (14%), English (8%), and Gujarati (7%) speakers. This suggests that Punjab and the neighboring state of Haryana are key sources of Indian migrants seeking asylum.
Approval rates also vary: Punjabi speakers had the highest asylum acceptance rate at 63%, followed by Hindi speakers at 58%, while only 25% of Gujarati-speaking applicants were successful.
Rise in Asylum Requests and System Exploitation
Data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows that asylum applications from Indians in the U.S. surged tenfold, increasing from 5,000 in 2021 to over 51,000 in 2023.
Although the most dramatic rise occurred in the U.S., similar trends were observed in Canada, the UK, and Australia. Kapur suggests that many Indian asylum claims are not driven by genuine fears of persecution but are instead a strategic attempt to exploit lengthy asylum processing times.
“This is largely a way to game the asylum system rather than an objective fear of persecution, as processing takes years,” Kapur said.
Despite this surge in asylum claims, there is no clear indication of significant political repression in Punjab, which has been governed by the Congress Party (2017-2022) and the Aam Aadmi Party (2022-present).
With Trump aiming for a second term, asylum requests are expected to decrease significantly. His administration has already taken steps to shut down a key migrant app, removing it from app stores and canceling nearly 300,000 pending appointments, including asylum hearings.
Economic Drivers of Migration
Data suggests that most Indian asylum seekers are from wealthier states, such as Punjab and Gujarat, where migration is financially viable. Meanwhile, marginalized groups, Indian Muslims, and those from conflict zones like Kashmir rarely seek asylum.
Migrating to the U.S. through unauthorized routes, including Latin America or as fraudulent students in Canada, can cost 30 to 100 times India’s per capita income. As a result, only those with significant assets can afford these journeys.
Given that Punjab and Gujarat have long histories of emigration, economic aspirations rather than political persecution appear to be the primary motivators for migration. The demand for a better life is driven not by absolute poverty but by “relative deprivation,” as families seek to emulate the success of others abroad.
Deportations of Indian Nationals
Between 2009 and 2024, approximately 16,000 Indians were deported, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs.
Annual deportations averaged 750 during Barack Obama’s presidency, rose to 1,550 under Trump’s first term, and declined to 900 under Biden. The highest number of deportations occurred in 2020, when nearly 2,300 Indians were removed.
More recently, deportations of Indian nationals have spiked again between 2023 and 2024.