Author: Rajendar Dichpally

US India Security Council Organizes Fund Raiser For Congressman Joe Kennedy III

Rajendar DichpallyCommunity, Politics USA Biden 0

The US India Security council had a video conference and Fund Raiser with Congressman Joe Kennedy (Massachusetts’s 4th congressional district) on August 23rd. The conference was attended by Ramesh Kapur, Koty  Srinivasa, Bharat Barai, Anil Deshpande, Rajendar Dichpally, Ravi Hotchandani, Anup Vashist , Vijay Nalamada,  and staff of Congressman Joe Kennedy III.

Congressman Joe Kennedy a lawyer by profession and scion of the famous Kennedy family,  grandson of U.S. Senator and U.S. Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, a grandnephew of U.S. President John F. Kennedy and U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy, and a great-grandson of U.S. Ambassador to the United Kingdom Joseph P. Kennedy Sr.

Joe Spoke about his vision for Massachusetts’s and how he plans to tackle the various issues that confront the state. He said that rebuilding the businesses in the state, with emphasis on small business is his main priority. He also said that the recent attacks against the minority community did not reflect the great values and ethos of America. He said restoring the pride of American and the respect it commands in the comity of nations would he his highest priority as Senator in addition to tacking the local issues of the state.

Ramesh Kapur who is a long time friend of the Kennedy family said that the Indian American community has a great friend in Joe Kennedy and urged the future Senator to be a member of the Armed Service committee of the senate so that he can help USA and India face the many challenges that the two democracies face. He also said the Ed Markey who is the incumbent Senator is Anti-India and has not endeared himself to the Indian American Community.

Bharat Barai said that he will ensure that Joe Kennedy III will get a congratulation letter from the Indian Prime Minister once he wins the senate race and assured all support to the congressman. Anil Deshpande said that he would like the future Senator to visit India officially as a senator and understand the country and its people for a long-lasting partnership.

Ravi Hotchandani wished that Joe Kennedy tackle the poverty issues the same way and with the same passion that his late Grandfather addressed them and earned a permanent place in the hearts of the poor and under privileged people. Koty Krishna asked the Congressman about he plans to tackle China which is a major issue to USA because of its military and economic threat to the country.

Ajay Nalamada wanted Joe Kennedy to reform the immigration policies and ensure that America removed the present quota system so that the country can benefit from the best talent from countries like India. Rajendar Dichpally said that the Kennedy’s and India enjoy a special relationship and quoted the example of the late President John F Kennedy (JFK) who broke protocol to go inside the Air India Aircraft to receive the first Indian Prime Minister – Jawahar Lal Nehru who had come on a state visit to the USA. He wished that the special relationship be carried forward with the future Senator – Joe Kennedy.

Om Sri Balaji Temple Organizes Awareness And Fund Raising Event

Rajendar DichpallyCulture, Religion 0

Om Sri Balaji Temple organized a temple awareness and fund raising event at the newly built campus located at 285 Rhode Hall Road, Monroe, NJ on Saturday, April 2nd. The first phase of the temple building “Sai Jnana Mandir” (center for cultural and spiritual education).

The event included live performances, recitation of Vedic hymns, inspiring speeches by the founder and trustees speeches, and a charity show. The event was a grand success, attended by over 400 guests. Many local community members came forward showing their appreciation and support towards the temple.

The founder, Suryanarayana Maddula, in his opening speech shared his childhood dream about building a temple for the almighty and a center for community education. Together with his team have acquired 12 acres of land near Monroe about 10 years back and started building the temple. The first phase is completed and a grand inauguration “Prana Prathistha” (installation of the deities) event is planned for the week of June 13-19th.

The temple will welcome the community with its large granite structure, serve the community with multiple faiths with a common goal of spreading goodness, love and oneness. Phase-1 includes 10 class rooms, a profession kitchen, dining hall and a large prayer hall.

Their goal for the event last week was to bring awareness of the newly constructed temple, bring the communities together, importantly the next generation. For more information about the event, volunteer opportunities, and donations visit https://omsrisaibalajitemple.org/

Politics of Petrol Prices In India

Rajendar DichpallyEconomy, Nation India 0

On the eve of Diwali, the Central government had cut excise duty on petrol and diesel prices by Rs 5 and Rs 10, pronouncing this as “Diwali Gift” .This brought relief to customers, who were reeling under inflation and skyrocketing fuel prices. Following this, at least 22 states and UTs cut VAT in different proportions.

The petrol price was cut in the range of Rs 5.7 to Rs 6.35 per litre and diesel rates by Rs 11.16 to Rs 12.88 across the country on November 4. The BJP-ruled states have slashed VAT rates on petrol and diesel by Rs 8 and 9, respectively.

According to Indian Oil Corporation, the country’s largest fuel retailer, in the national capital, petrol is retailing at Rs 103.97 per litre and diesel is available at Rs 86.67 per litre. The rate of petrol stands at Rs 109.98 in Mumbai and diesel costs Rs 94.14 per litre. The prices of petrol and diesel are the highest in India’s financial hub, Mumbai, among all the four metro cities.

In Tamil Nadu’s capital, Chennai, petrol is available at Rs 101.40 per litre and people have to shell out Rs 91.43 for one litre of diesel. Similarly, the prices of petrol and diesel remained unchanged in Kolkata and stood at Rs 104.67 and Rs 89.79 per litre, respectively.

Petrol, diesel prices in major Indian cities

CITY PETROL (PER LITRE) DIESEL (PER LITRE)
DELHI Rs 103.97 Rs 86.67
MUMBAI Rs 109.98 Rs 94.14
CHENNAI Rs 101.40 Rs 91.43
KOLKATA Rs 104.67 Rs 89.79
HYDERABAD Rs 108.20 Rs 94.62
BENGALURU Rs 100.58 Rs 85.01
BHOPAL Rs 107.23 Rs 90.87
CHANDIGARH Rs 94.23 Rs 80.90
BHUBANESWAR Rs 107.91 Rs 94.51

The Mechanism of Fuel Prices

 Fuel prices are revised by OMCs like Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum based on international prices in the preceding 15 days and foreign stock exchanges. The prices of petrol and diesel vary from state to state and also in cities, depending on the incidence of local taxes like value-added tax (VAT) and freight charges.

Politics Behind Price Cut

 The Rs 5 cut in the central levy on petrol and Rs 10 on diesel is the highest-ever reduction. This reduction came immediately after Bypoll election losses of BJP and comments from Himanchal Pradesh Chief Minister that inflation (mahangai) was the main reason of dismal performance of BJP in that state. To pacify or rather to fool people, this small reduction in fuel prices was announced as Diwali Gift.

The Central Government had increased fuel taxes twice by Rs 13 and Rs 16 per litre effected between March 2020 and May 2020. The twin hikes in central levies had taken the Centre’s collection on each litre of petrol to their highest level of Rs 32.9 and diesel to Rs 31.8 a litre. So even after reducing levy by Rs.5 per litre on petrol, the Center is collecting Rs27.9 (32.9-5) on petrol and Rs.21.8 on diesel. Clearly, the BJP government is trying to fool the people without giving them real relief.

The second politics is that for the coming five state elections, the BJP government is indirectly pressurizing the opposition ruled states to give up their major source of revenue which is VAT on fuel prices.

This would significantly reduce the budget of states and curtail their ability to spend on welfare measures just before elections. So if the opposition ruled states reduce VAT, they will be in a weaker position to fulfill the welfare demands of their voters. If they don’t reduce VAT, BJP will shift the entire blame of inflation on them. So far, except Odisa, non of the opposition ruled states have reduced their VAT while BJP ruled states immediately reduced their VATS. In the coming election advertisement, BJP will show the price differentials of petrol in BJP ruled states vs non-BJP ruled states. That way BJP expects to get the best of both the worlds in the coming state elections by playing this master stroke politics of small fuel price concessions.

Opposition States Cry Foul

The Centre had lowered not the excise component but the road and infra cess to Rs 13 from Rs 18 on petrol and to Rs 8 from Rs 18 on diesel. Since the Centre has cut cess and not the excise on fuels, there is going to be no change in the revenue share states get from the Centre. They will continue to get 41 per cent of Rs 12.40 per litre among states for unbranded petrol and Rs 9.80 a litre for diesel as per the recommendation of the 15th Finance Commission.

Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel criticised the Centre for making minor tweaks to fuel prices that don’t make an impact. He claimed that the Centre first raised the price of petrol and diesel by up to Rs 30 and then decreased it by Rs 5. Punjab Finance Minister Manpreet Singh Badal confirmed that the state government will soon take a call on the Center’s demand to reduce state levies on fuel. The Kerala government has also spoken up against the Centre’s move on fuel prices.

A Comparative Study of India’s Inflation during UPA Vs NDA Government (Dr. ManMohan Singh Government Vs. of Modi Government)

Rajendar DichpallyFinance/Economy 0

Dr. ManMohan Singh became Prime Minister on 22 May 2004, and he remained in office until 26 May 2014. After that Narendra Modi government has been continuously in power. This article dwells into how both governments faired on controlling inflation in India. We first took the CPI (Consumer Price Index) published by Government of India as a measure of inflation. However, this index represents just a fraction (includes only the goods that consumers consumed) of the total economic activity and ignores the substitution effect that arises from price changes. To have a comprehensive measure of inflation for the economy as a whole and incorporating the substitution effect on net inflation we calculated GDP Deflator where inflation is measured by (GDP at Current prices / GDP at constant prices) -1 and converted into percentage. Finally, we tried to verify the accuracy/consistency of inflation data published by Government of India with the international monetary theory which predicts long run inflation differentials between two countries. For this we used US dollar as the base currency and compared depreciation of rupee as the differential inflation.

This differential inflation between two countries talks about inflation of traded goods and investible assets including stocks and bonds. It also indicates how international investors perceive the overall health of the Indian economy i.e. if they see low inflation of a period as the strength of the economy or the weakness of the economy.  Remember during recession, inflation is low and during deflation inflation is negative, and both the situations are undesirable. The third situation is that of stagflation when real GDP stagnates or declines like we have since Indian Lockdown on account of Covid, while nominal GDP and stock market booms.

Taking historical data from the Economic Survey of India and trading economics for the recent months, we found that during the era of UPA Government (from May 22, 2004m to May 26 2014) headed by Dr. ManMohan Singh, inflation for the entire ten years was 8.48% per annum as per CPI measure, while as per GDP deflator it was 6.81% and as per US inflation differential it was 2.84% and since US inflation has been around 2%, this tells Indian inflation has been around 5% (2.84+2) for traded goods and investible assets. These figures look consistent.

However, Modi government has completed only 7 years, hence it would be fair to compare the inflation figures for the first 7 years of UPA government. During that period (May 2004 Until May 2011), as per CPI measure the annual average inflation rate had been 7.57%, as per GDP Deflator it had been 6.81% and as per US inflation differential it had been negative 0.17%. Rupee actually became stronger vs. US dollar. On 28th May, 2004, the exchange rate was $1 = 45.29 rupees and on May 26, 2011 this rate was $1= 44.75. These exchange rate figures were not much different from average values of the month. This means international investors saw Indian domestic inflation as a mark of strength and demanded more rupee for investments in India because trade deficit and total current account deficit was still there. Huge foreign investments in India (surplus on capital account) made rupee stronger and boosted foreign exchange reserves.

Compared to this, we now see the inflation scenario during NDA (Modi Government) era. As per CPI measure, inflation has remained lower at 5.11% while it was 7.57% under UPA. We then we compare the GDP deflator figures, which we find from our calculation to be equal to 3.19%. The main reason for this low inflation for the entire seven years was the period of demonetization as during the demonetization period, the inflation rate was very low, just 1% during 2016 and 2.8% during 2017. Since this inflation rate was slightly lower than US inflation rate of 2% for the entire two years, rupee became slightly stronger. The principles of economics are working. But after March 2018, the weakness of lower inflation became visible to international investors and rupee sharply depreciated.

On March 31st, 2018, the exchange rate was $1 = 65.01 and within one year it depreciated to 69.30 (a depreciation by 6.6%) giving international inflation figure of 8.6% (6.6+2% US inflation) for the year 2018-19. For the overall seven-year period until May 26, 2021, relative international inflation rate of India has been 3.14% seen by depreciation of rupee measure. This is sharply worse when compared with the relative international inflation figure of (-0.17%) of UPA government for their first seven years. This means that foreigners are either seeing low inflation of India as a weakness of the Indian economy or they are simply not believing the Indian inflation data, otherwise rupee would not have depreciated against dollar. According to International Investors, inflation in India for traded goods and investments should be 3.14%+2% = 5.14% while for Dr. ManMohan Singh’s first seven years period, this figure was just 1.83% (-0.17+2%).

To conclude, we can say that Dr.Manmohan Singh has performed far better in tacking inflation and having a better economic performance when compared to Narender Modi Government. The inflation number achieved by Modi government has been because of negative growth of entire GDP by 9.2% since pandemic, otherwise the performance of Modi Government would have been visibly more worse. People have become so poor that they don’t have enough purchasing power to buy goods. Manufacturing, trade, transport, communication and social-person services all have been in decline. Modi government has failed tremendrously in tacking Inflation when compared with UPA government domestically.

Internationally also, Dr. Manmohan Singh Government had performed much better when compared to the Modi Government in attracting economic investments. Even though the Modi Government has altered the domestic calculation index for GDP and Inflation to show a better picture, international figures are completely reliable as they can not be manipulated by the domestic governments since exchange rates are traded daily. India has seen better economic performance and perception during the Manmohan Singh Government in almost all aspects when compared to the Modi Government.

Sources:

  1. https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/doc/Statistical-Appendix-in-English.pdf
  2. https://tradingeconomics.com/india/inflation-cpi
  3. https://www.google.com/search?q=exchange+rate+dollar+to+rupee&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS834US834&sxsrf=AOaemvJLApHUnQXmNy2x8hIJKIVq464nYg%3A1631641979141&ei=e-FAYcrwB4jm_QaBobLwDQ&oq=exchange+rate+dollar&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAEYATIFCAAQgAQyCwgAEIAEELEDEIMBMgoIABCABBCHAhAUMgoIABCABBCHAhAUMgUIABCABDIGCAAQBxAeMgUIABCABDIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIAEMgUIABCABDoHCAAQRxCwAzoHCCMQsAIQJzoICAAQCBAHEB46BggAEAgQHjoECAAQDToJCAAQDRBGEIICSgQIQRgAUIv4AljokQNguLADaAFwAngAgAG2AYgBsQ6SAQQxLjEymAEAoAEByAEIwAEB&sclient=gws-wiz

Gandhian Society Plans Digital Museum Project For Mahatma Gandhi In New Jersey

Rajendar DichpallyCommunity 0

The Gandhian Society met with the Consul General of India in New York Shri. Randhir Jaiswal to discuss the digital museum project for Mahatma Gandhi in Edison along with the Aditya Birla Group representatives. The members apprised the consul general of the activities of Gandhian Society, especially the charitable work of sending oxygen concentrators to India in the beginning of the second wave in May – 2021.

The Society also informed the consul general of the Khadi Fashion show and Patriotic Music Competition held on India’s Independence Day in Central Jersey. The Gandhian Society along with the Birla Group representatives also explained to the Consul General the intended purpose and logistics of the proposed museum for Mahatma Gandhi. The consul general appreciated the proposed project and promised to extend his support for the project.

The Gandhain Society later felicitated the out going deputy Consul General Shatrughan Sinha ji for his services and support to the Indian Community and Gandhian Society activities. The members thanked him and the consulate staff for their excellent service and help to the community during the pandemic and praised their work and help during the most difficult times. The Gandhian Society honored the outgoing deputy consul general with a memento and Gandhian Jacket as a token of their respect and appreciation. The Gandhian Society was represented by founder Bhadra Butala, Rajendar Dichpally, Mahesh Wani, Hasmukh Patel. The Birla Group was represented by Nitin Mathuria and Riddhima. The Gandhain Society along with GOPIO and other Organizations will host an event in the Indian Consulate to observe the birth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi on October 2nd.

Modi Government Is Riddled With Abject Failures Both Short Term As Well As Long Term

Rajendar DichpallyNation India 0

The pandemic no doubt was sudden and brutal but the way it was  managed was  simply catastrophic. When we compare COVID related deaths and death rates of India versus  the second largest democracy, the USA and other neighbors we find that  the leaders of India have  failing miserably in saving Indian lives. According to the latest statistics from New York Times,    India’s COVID related deaths have been significantly higher when compared to  other countries and in the nearby region. At the peak, the number of weekly average death was 4454 on May 23, 2021. On June 12, this was 3303. The tragic  part is it increased after June 9 when this average was 2177.

For the USA, this average has been 370 on June 12. Since the population of India is roughly 4 times of the USA, the death rate in India should have been 4×370 or around 1600. This means the death rate in India has been twice of that of the USA despite aid coming from all over the world to save Indian lives.

The weekly average death rate in Bangladesh has been just 30 on June 121. India’s population is about 8.7 times larger than Bangladesh which implies that India’s weekly average death rate should have been just 330. At the peak death rate in Bangladesh on April 23, the average figure was just 981 which implies that the peak weekly average death rate in India should have been 850. For Pakistan, the peak weekly death rate was 140 on April 28 and on June 12 it was 61  Since population of India is 6 times that of Pakistan it implies that the even per Pakistan’s standard, the peak weekly deaths in India should have been 850 (140×6) and on June 12 it should have been 360 (61×6)1.  It is really shameful, that with population adjustment made, India has been performing 10 times worse than its immediate neighbors Bangladesh and Pakistan in handling Covid death rates and at the peak (worst time of both the countries compared) also India was 5 times worse than them.

The GDP Debacle

On GDP also India’s performance has been dismal. As per the latest data, the growth rate of India has been -7.3% for the fiscal year 2021 (4/20 to 3/21). US and China are much bigger economies than India and they also had COVID almost on the same scale as India. However, their economies grew at the rate of 2.6% and 8.4% respectively. It is clearly the dismal failure of Modi government because of  its  regressive and myopic economic policies.

Another issue of major concern is the alarming Balance of Trade Deficit with China as a Cause of sluggish GDP growth of India.  It is  being touted that “Trade between China and India soared 70.1% in US dollar terms in the first five months of this year to $48.16 billion, according to Chinese customs data released on Monday. Specifically, Chinese exports to India grew 64.1% year-on-year from January to May, while imports surged 90.2%,” the tabloid Global Times reported2. The trade deficit during the same first five moths of 2021 has been$45 billion, which is 1.5% of India’s GDP. Since GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Expenditure + Balance of Trade, India’s GDP is down by 1.5% in just five months of trade with China. This implies that for the whole year at this rate of trade deficit with China, India’s 3.6% of GDP would taken away by China.

It is very surprising that Modi Government seems oblivious to  this drain on India’s economy. President Trump imposed heavy import duties on China in the year 2018 and that has been continued under Biden administration, but the Indian Government is not even realizing this problem. What kind of Finance and Commerce Ministers this government has that they are not even understanding that with this kind of trade deficit, India’s GDP can’t grow? Only under this government with India-China trade volume of $87.6 billion in 2020, China overtook the US to become India’s largest trading partner despite a bloody conflict along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and the rising anti-China sentiment. All Asian tigers and both China and Japan achieved miracles because of trade surpluses, but Modi government does not even realize that India’s wealth is being drained by China! Even one of the richest and the most powerful country, the USA could not survive the economic drain on US GDP caused by trade deficit with China. This problem must be discussed in Parliament. This is absolutely urgent.

Failure to tackle  Inflation and reduce unemployment:

India’s inflation for the year 2020 was 6.2% which is far above the stated goal of 4%. The Government’s failure on Unemployment reduction too is stark and glaring.  Over 10 million (1 crore) Indians have lost their jobs because of the second wave of Covid-19, and around 97 per cent of households’ incomes have declined since the beginning of the pandemic last year, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) chief executive Mahesh Vyas said on Monday4. The total figure of unemployed labour  has been 3.5 crores or 350 million.

Besides, the abysmally short-sighted policies of the government have accentuated the problem of Stagflation. India has experienced the worst of both the worlds during the current regime. Since the relationship between inflation and unemployment has historically been inverse in many parts of the world including India under Dr Man Mohan Singh’s government (also known as Phillips Curve), India under Modi government has seen higher inflation and higher unemployment as discussed above. This means stagflation is the special feature of this government because of its wrong economic policies.

The  inequality monster: India’s inequality had increased. Only two business houses of Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani have been accumulating wealth by exploiting the rest of India. As already discussed, that 97% of Indians have become poorer while the wealth of MukeshAmbani has tripled since the formation of this government in 2014 and Gautam Adani’s wealth has increased by about 30 times. As per Forbes records, Gautam Adani’s wealth was just $3.5 billion in March 2016 which jumped to $75 Billion on June 13, 2021. This kind of immense richness over just 5 years is not possible without government (Prime Minister in particular) favoring him.

The callous, insensitive and prejudiced Government under Modi has made a mockery of Governance and exposed the Indian nation and its people to the hydra of inflation, unemployment, crippling economy, a debilitating trade deficit and failing and a sinking health care system.

The present Government still has 3 more years to go before it faces the people in a general election. It is time for some serious course correction by the Modi Government, for the sake of its own survival and but more importantly for the people of India. Let us hope that the Modi Government shakes off the ignorance and arrogance, strategizes by putting the people of India first and performs with heart, mind and muscle in the second half of their thus far catastrophic tenure.

Sources:

Number in Subscript is the source number listed below:

  1.   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
  2. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/trade-with-india-jumped-by-over-70-in-2021-shows-china-s-customs-data-101623143023368.html
  3. https://www.statista.com/statistics/271322/inflation-rate-in-india/
  4. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/second-wave-left-1-crore-indians-jobless-97-households-incomes-dipped-report-101622507233717.html
  5. https://www.forbes.com/profile/gautam-adani-1/?sh=492d278c5b0e

(RajendarDichpally is the  National General Secretary – Indian Overseas Congress, USA)

-+=