Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing mounting pressure from within his Liberal Party to step down after nearly a decade in office. The calls for his resignation intensified following the abrupt departure of a key minister, who criticized Trudeau’s handling of the budget and economic challenges. Once celebrated for his leadership, Trudeau’s popularity has waned due to a range of issues, including the soaring cost of living and persistent inflation.
Currently, the Liberal Party lacks a mechanism to immediately force Trudeau out. His potential departure could arise through either a voluntary resignation or a “no confidence” vote in Parliament, which would likely trigger an election favoring the opposition Conservative Party. However, if his government manages to survive such a vote, Trudeau could remain in office until the next scheduled election.
As more Liberal lawmakers openly questioned Trudeau’s leadership, Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada’s minister of natural resources, called for patience. “We all need to give him a little time to reflect,” Wilkinson stated.
The Possibility of Trudeau Resigning
Political analysts consider Trudeau’s resignation a likely outcome. If he steps down, the Liberals would need to appoint an interim prime minister to lead until elections are held. However, no clear frontrunner has emerged for the interim role.
In the longer term, one of the potential candidates to succeed Trudeau is Mark Carney, the former head of the Bank of Canada and later the Bank of England. Carney has expressed interest in entering politics and has long been viewed as a prime ministerial contender. Another possibility is Dominic LeBlanc, the newly appointed finance minister and a close ally of Trudeau. LeBlanc, a former public safety minister, recently accompanied Trudeau to a dinner with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
The turmoil within Trudeau’s government escalated after Chrystia Freeland, the former finance minister, resigned from his Cabinet. Freeland criticized Trudeau’s handling of economic issues, particularly in light of the steep tariffs threatened by Trump. Her departure followed the resignation of the housing minister, further amplifying concerns about the government’s stability.
Canadian historian Robert Bothwell suggested that Trudeau’s resignation might be inevitable if additional ministers leave. “My guess is that if another minister or two goes, he’s toast,” Bothwell remarked.
Parliament’s Role in Trudeau’s Future
Unhappy voters and fracturing alliances in Parliament could spell trouble for Trudeau’s government. The Liberal Party’s reliance on the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) for support has become precarious, as the NDP’s leader has also called for Trudeau’s resignation. This shift opens the door for a potential “no confidence” vote in Parliament.
If a majority in Parliament votes against the Liberal government, a new election would be triggered. Bothwell predicted that such an outcome would decisively end Trudeau’s political career. “He would then be erased in the election,” he said.
The possibility of a “no confidence” vote could arise soon after Parliament reconvenes in late January, following the holiday recess. However, the Liberal Party might use procedural tactics to delay the vote for several months, noted Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto.
The opposition Conservative Party, which holds a commanding lead in the polls, has refrained from explicitly demanding Trudeau’s resignation. Recent polling by Nanos indicates that the Conservatives have the support of 43% of voters compared to 23% for the Liberals, suggesting a strong likelihood of a Conservative majority in a potential election.
Trudeau’s Attempt to Retain Power
Despite the growing discontent, Trudeau could attempt to hold onto power. While many within his party are urging him to step down, he retains some support among loyalists. Liberal lawmaker James Maloney defended Trudeau, saying he still has the backing of the party’s base in Parliament.
“Like most families, sometimes we have fights around the holidays. But of course, like most families, we find our way through it,” Trudeau said in an address to party members. “I love this country. I deeply love this party. I love you guys.”
Should Trudeau’s government survive no confidence votes in the coming months—an increasingly unlikely scenario—the next federal election would be held no later than October 20. However, Wiseman speculated that an election could occur much earlier. “I expect an election in late spring, unless Trudeau decides to dissolve Parliament and dives into an election before then,” he said.
With their grip on power slipping, the Liberals are now aiming to limit the damage in the next election. Experts suggest their best-case scenario would be to hold the Conservatives to a minority government, forcing them to rely on other parties to pass legislation.
As political and public pressure mounts, the path forward for Trudeau and the Liberal Party grows increasingly uncertain. The coming weeks will likely determine whether Trudeau’s leadership survives or whether Canada enters a new chapter of political change.