Thursday, February 20, 2025 – Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) has published “ASEAN Caught Between China’s Export Surge and Global De-Risking,” written by Brendan Kelly, Fellow on Chinese Economy and Technology at ASPI’s Center for China Analysis, and Shay Wester, ASPI’s Director of Asian Economic Affairs. The paper examines how China’s industrial overcapacity is impacting ASEAN economies across key sectors, analyzes responses by ASEAN countries and China, and offers policy recommendations to Washington and ASEAN governments.
“ASEAN overtook the United States and the European Union as China’s largest export market in 2023, with Chinese exports to the region increasing by an additional 12% in 2024, while ASEAN exports to China rose by only 2%,” write Kelly and Wester. “This influx of Chinese goods, including intermediate goods for re-export and consumer goods for ASEAN markets, has widened trade deficits and intensified pressures on local industries.”
Alongside surging imports from China, Kelly and Wester identify three other trends impacting ASEAN economies:
- China’s industrial overcapacity is displacing ASEAN exports to third markets.
- ASEAN is increasingly becoming the key offshore manufacturing base for Chinese companies, particularly in the clean energy sector.
- The U.S., EU, and other economies like Japan and India are intensifying their scrutiny of exports from Chinese companies operating in or processed through third countries.
“ASEAN governments now face a double balancing act: managing growing economic integration with China while contending with mounting pressures from advanced economies to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains,” write Kelly and Wester. “These pressures ASEAN faces are already building and are likely to be shaped and accelerated under the new Trump administration and China’s decoupling efforts.”
To address these mounting challenges, the authors suggest that ASEAN must strengthen trade tools, enhance regional coordination to manage import surges, invest in their own competitiveness, and diversify supply chains away from China. The paper also provides recommendations for U.S. engagement with ASEAN.
Read the paper here. Members of the media interested in interviewing Kelly and Wester should email [email protected].
Don’t miss ASPI’s upcoming events online and in New York:
Changing Geopolitics of China and Russia in the Arctic
Tuesday, 25 February 2025
8 – 10:30 a.m. EST
New York
The China-Russia Program at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center of China Analysis (CCA) is convening a panel to discuss the evolving dynamics of cooperation and competition between China and Russia in the Arctic. The panel will feature Jo Inge Bekkevold, Senior China Fellow at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies/Norwegian Defence University College; Katarzyna Zysk, Professor of International Relations and Contemporary History at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies; and Elizabeth Wishnick, Senior Research Scientist in the China and Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division at the Center for Naval Analyses and Senior Research Scholar at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University. The discussion will be moderated by Lyle J. Morris, CCA Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security.
Tuesday, 4 March 2025
8 – 9 a.m. EST
Online
We invite you to join a virtual panel discussion with experts from the Indo-Pacific and the U.S. to explore the impact of US friendshoring policy. The panel will feature: Iman Pambagyo, former Chief Trade Negotiator for Indonesia; Jayant Menon, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) -Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore; Yasuyuki Todo, Professor at the Graduate School of Economics at Waseda University; and Wendy Cutler, Vice President of Asia Society Policy Institute. Jane Mellsop, ASPI Director of Trade, Investment, and Economic Security, will moderate.
The Two Sessions: What Will China Do on Stimulus, Trade Wars, and Tech Competition?
Thursday, 6 March 2025
9 – 10 a.m. EST
Online
Join us for a panel discussion on what China’s government work report delivered by Xi Jinping on March 5 can tell us about what to expect from China in the year ahead. To analyze these developments, ASPI CCA is pleased to present a next-day webinar with CCA Fellows Michael Hirson, Lizzi C. Lee, and Senior Fellow Guoguang Wu, moderated by Fellow Neil Thomas.
Members of the media interested in attending any of our in person events should contact [email protected].
