On November 5, voters across the U.S. will cast their ballots to elect the next president. Initially anticipated to be a repeat of the 2020 election, the race was drastically altered in July when President Joe Biden withdrew his bid for re-election and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris. This shift has set up a historic showdown: will Kamala Harris become the first female president, or will Donald Trump secure a second term?
As election day nears, poll trackers are closely monitoring the race for the White House, gauging the influence of campaign events on voter preferences.
Who Leads the National Polls?
Since her entry into the race at the end of July, Harris has held a steady lead over Trump in national polling averages. These polls, regularly updated and rounded to the nearest whole number, show Harris maintaining her advantage in the race.
One significant campaign event was a televised debate on September 10 in Pennsylvania, which attracted more than 67 million viewers. Polls conducted in the week following the debate suggested Harris gained momentum, with her lead growing from 2.5 percentage points before the debate to 3.3 points a week later.
Most of this gain can be attributed to a slight dip in Trump’s polling numbers. Although Trump’s popularity had been rising in the lead-up to the debate, his numbers fell by half a percentage point afterward.
The poll tracker indicates these marginal shifts, with trend lines showing the changing averages and dots representing the individual poll results for both candidates.
While national polls provide insight into each candidate’s popularity, they are not necessarily predictive of the election outcome. This is because the U.S. does not use a simple popular vote system to decide the president. Instead, an electoral college system determines the winner, with each state allocated a certain number of votes, reflecting its population size. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes out of 538 to win the presidency.
Who Leads in Swing State Polls?
In the current electoral race, the real battleground is in the swing states. Of the 50 states, only a few—referred to as battleground or swing states—are truly up for grabs. These are the states where the election will likely be decided, as most other states consistently lean toward one party.
Polling in the seven key battleground states reveals an extremely close race, with only one or two percentage points separating Harris and Trump. Pennsylvania, a pivotal state with the highest number of electoral votes among the battlegrounds, is particularly critical. Winning Pennsylvania would make it significantly easier for either candidate to reach the necessary 270 electoral votes.
Interestingly, the dynamics of the race have shifted dramatically since Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee. On the day Biden dropped out, he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points in these battleground states. Harris has narrowed that gap considerably, reflecting her growing strength in these crucial regions.
However, it’s important to note that fewer state-level polls are conducted compared to national polls, meaning less data is available. Additionally, all polls have margins of error, which means actual voter preferences could differ slightly from the poll results.
Despite these limitations, the trends since Harris joined the race indicate some areas where she holds an advantage. Polling averages show that Harris has been leading in three key battleground states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—since early August. Yet, these leads are narrow.
Historically, all three of these states were Democratic strongholds until Trump turned them red in 2016, helping him win the presidency. Biden managed to flip them back to the Democratic column in 2020, and if Harris can do the same this year, she will be well-positioned to win the election.
How Are Polling Averages Calculated?
The polling averages presented in this article are sourced from 538, a polling analysis website operated by ABC News. 538 gathers data from various polling companies, both at the national level and within battleground states.
To ensure accuracy, 538 uses strict quality controls and only includes polls from companies that meet certain transparency standards. For example, polling firms must disclose the number of people surveyed, the timing of the poll, and the method used—whether it was conducted by phone, online, or via text.
This level of detail is critical in ensuring the reliability of the polling averages.
Can We Trust the Polls?
As of now, polls suggest that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in the crucial swing states. With the race so close, predicting the outcome is difficult.
Recent elections have shown that polls can underestimate Trump’s support. This happened in both 2016 and 2020, when polling companies failed to accurately predict his level of backing. Polling organizations are working to address this issue by refining their methods, aiming to ensure their results better reflect the makeup of the voting population.
One major challenge for pollsters is accounting for voter turnout. Accurately predicting who will actually show up at the polls on November 5 remains a guessing game, despite efforts to improve polling accuracy.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be a close and potentially historic race. While Kamala Harris has a slight edge in national polls and is gaining ground in key battleground states, Donald Trump remains a formidable opponent. The election will ultimately be decided by the voters in a handful of crucial swing states, where the margins are razor-thin. As November 5 approaches, both candidates will be making their final push to sway undecided voters in these pivotal areas. The stakes are high, and the outcome is anything but certain.