Israel is actively targeting Hezbollah strongholds across Lebanon, including strikes in Beirut that reportedly aim at high-ranking militants. Bombs are believed to be concealed in communication devices like walkie-talkies and pagers. In response, Hezbollah has launched rockets and drones into northern Israel, causing widespread damage to buildings and vehicles. Despite this violence, neither party is officially labeling the situation as a war.
Israeli officials insist that they are not seeking open warfare with Hezbollah, asserting that conflict can be averted if Hezbollah stops its attacks and withdraws from the border areas. Hezbollah has made similar statements, declaring it does not wish for war but will continue its assaults until there is a cease-fire in Gaza. These hostilities erupted after Hamas launched its attack on Israel on October 7. Since then, clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have escalated, reaching a peak on Monday when Israeli airstrikes reportedly killed over 490 people, making it Lebanon’s deadliest day since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.
“If someone had told me or most analysts in summer 2023 that Hezbollah is striking Israeli bases in Israel, and Israel is striking southern Lebanon and parts of southern Beirut, I would have said, OK, that’s an all-out war,” said Andreas Krieg, a military analyst at King’s College London.
The reason this is not being labeled a war yet, according to Krieg, is the absence of ground forces. However, he warns that focusing on that criterion alone might be misleading.
Defining War:
The term “war” is traditionally understood as a state of “open and declared armed conflict between states or nations,” according to Merriam-Webster. Scholars often expand this definition to include large-scale violence involving insurgent or militant groups, as in the case of Hezbollah. However, no single definition can capture the wide variety of modern conflicts, which range from full-scale battles involving national armies to lower-level engagements with non-state actors.
While states sometimes formally declare war, such as Israel did against Hamas, they often avoid doing so in other conflicts. For instance, despite its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, Russia officially refers to its actions as a “special military operation.” Similarly, the United States has refrained from declaring war since World War II, despite its participation in the Korean, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan conflicts.
Why Is It Not Being Called a War?
Both Israel and Hezbollah are avoiding the term “war” because each hopes to achieve its objectives without triggering a larger, more devastating conflict. Neither side wishes to be held responsible for escalating the situation further.
“Though tensions are flaring, the situation in southern Lebanon is not that of a full-scale war as both Hezbollah and Israel hope to use limited means to pressure one another,” said Lina Khatib, a Middle East expert at Chatham House.
Hezbollah’s rocket and drone attacks seem intended to push Israel toward agreeing to a cease-fire with Hamas. By continuing its strikes, Hezbollah aims to maintain pressure without appearing submissive to Israeli demands. The militant group has stated that it will cease its attacks only if a cease-fire is reached in Gaza, but that outcome seems increasingly unlikely.
On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed his determination to end Hezbollah’s assaults, saying he will take whatever actions are necessary to allow displaced Israelis to return to their homes. According to Krieg, the Israeli strategy may be to pressure Hezbollah into a negotiated settlement or force it into overreacting, potentially igniting the very all-out war both sides are trying to avoid. “I think the Israelis are trying to either tell Hezbollah, you come to the negotiation table and we’ll settle this through diplomacy, or we’ll push you into a corner until you overreact,” Krieg explained.
What Would an All-Out War Entail?
In the past, analysts have generally believed that any future war between Israel and Hezbollah would closely resemble their 2006 conflict but on a much larger and more destructive scale. Israeli officials have repeatedly warned that in the event of such a war, their military response would be far more devastating. They have suggested that they would not only target Hezbollah but also inflict widespread damage on Lebanon’s critical infrastructure. This concept has been dubbed the “Dahiyeh Doctrine,” named after the southern Beirut district where Hezbollah’s headquarters are located and which was heavily bombed in 2006.
Hezbollah has been building up its arsenal for years and is thought to possess about 150,000 rockets and missiles, some capable of hitting deep into Israeli territory. This massive stockpile, along with Israel’s overwhelming military capabilities, has created a state of mutual deterrence. From 2006 until October of last year, the border between Israel and Lebanon remained mostly quiet, as both sides sought to avoid a catastrophic escalation. However, the current situation is increasingly volatile, and experts warn that the conflict could spiral into full-blown war at any moment.
“We’ve gone up a step, but we haven’t yet made it to the penthouse floor,” said Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University. He expressed concern that a ground invasion by Israel might eventually become unavoidable. “At the end, I don’t see there’s going to be any alternative to a ground operation.”
Will Ground Invasion Mark the Start of War?
Should Israel send ground troops into southern Lebanon, it would undoubtedly be seen as a major escalation by many. While a ground invasion might convince most observers that the conflict has crossed into full-scale war, the reality is more nuanced. Even in Gaza, where Israel officially declared war three weeks before its ground forces moved in, the lines have been blurry. Furthermore, Israeli ground operations have been ongoing in the West Bank for decades, yet these actions are not universally considered acts of war. Recent months have also seen Israeli airstrikes on militants in the region, with no formal declaration of war.
It’s possible that even a limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon could allow both sides to step back from the brink of all-out war. However, Lebanon would almost certainly view such a move as a clear violation of its sovereignty and a direct act of war. Lebanon has long accused Israel of infringing on its airspace and occupying disputed areas near the border.
Despite these concerns, it is worth noting that Israel and Lebanon have technically been at war since 1948, a fact that underscores the complex and long-standing tensions in the region. As this latest escalation unfolds, the risk of it transforming into a full-scale conflict remains ever-present, even as both sides seek to avoid that outcome.
