Donald Trump achieved a significant milestone by winning both the Electoral College and the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election. This victory marks Trump as only the second Republican to secure the popular vote since 1988. The majority of counties in the U.S. saw their voting margins shift toward Trump, reflecting gains in both Republican-stronghold regions and traditionally Democratic areas.
Despite this accomplishment, Trump’s margins were relatively modest, especially by historical standards. Over the past 25 years, U.S. presidential elections have often been tightly contested, as seen in the 2000 Florida recount election and Trump’s own races in 2016 and 2020.
Adding to the complexity of his victory, Trump’s success did not translate into substantial gains for down-ballot Republicans. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives remains slim, and Democrats managed to win four Senate races in key battleground states, even as Vice President Kamala Harris lost those states to Trump.
During his election night celebration, Trump confidently declared, “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate.”
However, Wayne Steger, a political scientist at DePaul University, interpreted the results differently, describing the election as sending “mixed signals.” According to Steger, a combination of factors such as inflation, immigration, identity politics, crime, education, and a growing conservative sentiment favored the Republican candidate. Still, he characterized the outcome as a “close election in which there was enough anti-Democratic sentiment to carry the day.”
Trump’s Victory in Context
Trump’s performance in the 2024 election has several notable aspects. He managed to secure wins in all seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Harris, in comparison, performed worse in these states than President Joe Biden did in 2020.
Trump’s margin of victory in these battleground states was significantly larger than the margins seen in close elections over the past two decades. For example, his combined margin in these seven states was approximately 760,000 votes. In contrast, the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore produced a collective margin of just 46,000 votes across the seven closest states—a figure about one-sixteenth of Trump’s margin in 2024.
Historical comparisons further underscore Trump’s achievement. Since 1932, only six candidates from the party out of power have garnered as large a share of the vote as Trump’s near 50%. These figures include political heavyweights such as Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Dwight Eisenhower in 1952, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Ronald Reagan in 1980, Barack Obama in 2008, and Biden in 2020.
In the Electoral College, Trump secured 312 votes out of 538. While this figure falls short of the landslide victories achieved by Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, or Reagan in 1984, it surpasses four of the seven elections held this century, including Biden’s win in 2020.
The Narrowness of Trump’s Victory
Despite his notable successes, other metrics highlight the narrow nature of Trump’s win. In terms of both percentage and raw vote counts, Trump’s margin of victory ranks as one of the slimmest in recent history.
As of November 20, Trump’s lead over Harris was 1.62%—a smaller margin than any winner since Bush in 2000, who prevailed with just a 0.51% lead. In the broader historical context, only John F. Kennedy in 1960 and Nixon in 1968 had smaller popular vote margins, at 0.17% and 0.7%, respectively.
In terms of raw votes, Trump’s margin of approximately 2.5 million is the fifth smallest since 1960. This figure is less than half of Biden’s margin in the 2020 election.
Moreover, Trump’s strong showing at the top of the ticket did not result in widespread Republican success down-ballot. In the seven battleground states, five held Senate races and one held a gubernatorial contest. While Republicans won Pennsylvania’s Senate race, Democrats triumphed in the Senate contests in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, as well as in North Carolina’s gubernatorial race.
In North Carolina, Democrats also secured wins in elections for lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and superintendent of public instruction. They were also narrowly leading in a state Supreme Court race.
The U.S. House of Representatives is poised to retain a narrow Republican margin, similar to the previous two years. In state legislatures, Republicans made only modest gains in chamber control, while Democrats managed to make inroads in other areas.
Barry Burden, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin, described Trump’s victory as “solid and convincing.” However, he noted, “the 2024 elections were not a general endorsement of the Republican Party. Many Republicans down ballot did not perform as well as Trump.”
Implications for Future Elections
The 2024 election continues a broader pattern of close contests and fluctuating political control. Since 2000, the presidency, Senate, or House has changed hands 16 times across 13 election cycles.
This trend suggests that Democrats may be well-positioned for the 2026 midterms and potentially the 2028 presidential race. Claremont McKenna College political scientist Jack Pitney emphasized the electorate’s dissatisfaction with the state of the country, remarking, “Unless Trump creates an abrupt change in the national mood, Democrats have a good chance at a successful 2026 midterm.”
Trump’s 2024 victory represents a blend of significant achievements and historical narrowness. His success in battleground states and his strong showing against an incumbent party underscore his electoral strength, but the modest margins and lack of a down-ballot boost highlight the complexities of his win. As the U.S. political landscape remains deeply divided, the coming years will test the durability of Trump’s mandate and the Republicans’ ability to consolidate their gains.
