Deportation of Indian Nationals from the US Rises Amid Changing Migration Patterns

In October, a chartered flight organized by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) returned a group of Indian nationals to their home country, reflecting a growing trend in deportations to India. This flight was one of many large-scale “removal flights” conducted this year, each typically carrying over 100 passengers. These individuals were returned for failing to establish legal grounds to remain in the United States.

According to officials, the recent flight, which transported adult men and women, was directed to Punjab, a region close to the origins of many deportees. However, authorities did not provide a detailed breakdown of their hometowns.

In the US fiscal year 2024, which concluded in September, over 1,000 Indian nationals were deported via charter and commercial flights, noted Royce Bernstein Murray, assistant secretary at the US Department of Homeland Security. “That has been part of a steady increase in removals from the US of Indian nationals over the past few years, which corresponds with a general increase in encounters that we have seen with Indian nationals in the last few years as well,” Murray stated during a media briefing. Encounters refer to instances where non-citizens are stopped by US authorities while attempting to cross the country’s borders with Mexico or Canada.

As the US increases repatriations of Indian nationals, there is growing concern about how President-elect Donald Trump’s immigration policies will impact these trends. Trump has pledged to undertake the largest deportation campaign in US history, raising alarm among migrant communities.

Since October 2020, nearly 170,000 Indian migrants have been apprehended by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials for unauthorized crossings at both the northern and southern borders. “Though smaller than the numbers from Latin America and the Caribbean, Indian nationals represent the largest group of migrants from outside the Western Hemisphere encountered by the CBP in the past four years,” noted immigration analysts Gil Guerra and Sneha Puri from the Washington-based Niskanen Center.

As of 2022, approximately 725,000 undocumented Indian immigrants resided in the US, ranking them as the third-largest group of unauthorized migrants after individuals from Mexico and El Salvador, according to data from the Pew Research Center. Overall, unauthorized immigrants constitute about 3% of the US population and 22% of its foreign-born residents.

Analyzing these figures, Guerra and Puri have identified significant trends in the increasing number of Indian nationals attempting illegal border crossings.

One notable observation is that these migrants are not from the lowest economic strata. However, many face challenges in obtaining tourist or student visas to the US, often due to limited education or English proficiency. As an alternative, they rely on agencies that charge up to $100,000 for arranging migration through lengthy and perilous routes designed to bypass border controls. To afford these exorbitant costs, many migrants sell their farms or take on loans. Data from US immigration courts in 2024 shows that most Indian migrants are men aged 18 to 34.

Another trend involves the growing use of Canada as an entry point. Canada offers a shorter visitor visa processing time of 76 days compared to the US, where visa approvals can take up to a year. The Swanton Sector, which includes parts of Vermont, New York, and New Hampshire, has seen a surge in encounters with Indian nationals this year, peaking at 2,715 in June.

Historically, most irregular Indian migrants entered the US via the southern border with Mexico, often traveling through countries like El Salvador or Nicaragua. Until November 2022, Indian nationals enjoyed visa-free travel to El Salvador, which facilitated these routes. However, the northern border’s greater length and less intensive surveillance have made it increasingly attractive, despite potential dangers. “The US-Canada border is also longer and less guarded than the US-Mexico border. And while it is not necessarily safer, criminal groups do not have the same presence there as they do along the route from South and Central America,” Guerra and Puri explained.

Much of this migration originates from Punjab, a state in northern India, and neighboring Haryana, both of which have a history of high migration rates. Gujarat, the home state of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is another notable source. Economic challenges such as unemployment, agricultural distress, and a growing drug crisis have driven many Punjabis to seek opportunities abroad. Migration has become an established tradition in Punjab, with rural youth eager to move overseas in search of better prospects.

A recent study conducted by Navjot Kaur, Gaganpreet Kaur, and Lavjit Kaur in Punjab revealed that 56% of the 120 respondents emigrated between the ages of 18 and 28, often after completing secondary education. Many financed their journeys with non-institutional loans, with the expectation of sending remittances back to their families.

In addition to economic factors, rising tensions over the Khalistan separatist movement—which seeks an independent Sikh homeland—have contributed to migration. “This has caused fear from some Sikhs in India about being unfairly targeted by authorities or politicians. These fears may also provide a credible basis for claims of persecution that allows them to seek asylum, whether or not true,” Puri said.

Determining the exact causes of migration remains complex. While economic opportunity remains the primary driver, social networks and a sense of pride in having family members “settled” in the US also play a significant role, Puri observed.

Another emerging pattern is a demographic shift among migrants. While single adults constituted the majority of those detained at the borders in 2021, family units now make up 16-18% of detentions. This shift has sometimes led to tragic outcomes. In January 2022, an Indian family of four from Gujarat froze to death just 12 meters from the Canadian border while attempting to enter the US.

Pablo Bose, a migration scholar at the University of Vermont, highlighted the economic pull of US cities. “From everything I know and interviews I have conducted, most of the Indians are not staying in the more rural locations like Vermont or upstate New York but rather heading to the cities as soon as they can,” Bose explained. In urban areas like New York and Boston, migrants often find work in informal sectors such as domestic labor and restaurants.

The situation may soon become more challenging. Veteran immigration official Tom Homan, who will oversee the country’s borders under Trump’s administration, has identified the US-Canada border as a priority area due to illegal migration concerns. Homan described it as a “huge national security issue.”

The future remains uncertain. “It remains to be seen if Canada would impose similar policies to prevent people migrating into the US from its borders. If that happens, we can expect a decline in detentions of Indian nationals at the border,” Puri noted.

Despite the tightening restrictions, the aspirations of thousands of Indians seeking a better life in the US persist. For many, the journey may become more perilous, but their dreams remain undeterred.