Three energy-rich Gulf nationsâSaudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emiratesâare moving swiftly to transform their influence over U.S. President Donald Trump into tangible advantages as he prepares to visit the region this week. The leaders of these nations have fostered personal relationships with Trump, collectively committed trillions of dollars to American investments, and positioned themselves as indispensable players in conflicts that Trump aims to address, including those in Gaza, Ukraine, and Iran.
In return, theyâre being rewarded with the prestige of hosting Trumpâs first official state visits since beginning his second term. The trip kicks off in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, with scheduled stops in Qatar and the UAE, extending through May 16.
Given Trumpâs transactional approach to diplomacy, the Gulf nations hold considerable appeal.
âIn Trumpâs book, the Gulf states tick all the right boxes,â said Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain. âThey pledge to invest trillions in the US economy and spend colossal amounts on US weapons systems.â
This well-orchestrated strategy to win Trumpâs favor stems from a desire among Gulf leaders to entrench their status as crucial security and economic partners to the United States, while also maximizing their own gains.
Relations between the US and Gulf nations have markedly improved since Trumpâs return to the White House. Under President Biden, Gulf leaders had grown disillusioned with what they perceived as waning U.S. interest in their concerns. During that period, Saudi Arabia and the UAE actively diversified their military, technological, and economic alliances. Now, Trumpâs leadership presents what a Gulf official described as a âonce-in-a-lifetime opportunityâ to realize long-standing goals.
âThis is the time to consolidate ties with Washington,â said EbtesamAlKetbi, founder and president of the Emirates Policy Center in Abu Dhabi, âand even secure greater privileges in their relationship with the worldâs most powerful nation.â
Each of the three countries on Trumpâs itinerary has distinct objectives for his visit, and each is employing a tailored strategy to achieve its goals.
Saudi Arabia Seeks a Security Agreement
Saudi Arabiaâs top priority is clear: bolstering its security partnership with the United States.
âSecurity, security and security,â said Ali Shihabi, a commentator and author on Saudi politics and economics, when asked about what Riyadh expects from Trumpâs trip. âGulf States are looking for reassurance of the US security commitment to the Gulfâs stability. Trump has many priorities and has been known to lose interest quickly ⊠and they want to keep him engaged.â
Last year, Washington and Riyadh nearly completed a major defense and trade agreement. However, negotiations stalled due to Saudi Arabiaâs demand that Israel make a formal commitment toward establishing a Palestinian state.
Firas Maksad, managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, suggested that Trump may push ahead with significant deals regardless of progress on Israeli-Palestinian normalization, which he declared âdead.â
Saudi Arabia is also pursuing U.S. support for its civil nuclear ambitions. Yet its insistence on enriching uranium within its borders has caused concern in both Washington and Tel Aviv due to the potential for nuclear weapons development. High-grade uranium can be weaponized, making this a contentious point.
Despite these hurdles, a U.S.-endorsed Saudi nuclear initiative could be a windfall for American companies in terms of lucrative contracts.
Riyadh appears eager to frame its dealings with the United States as mutually beneficial. In March, Trump said, âTheyâve agreed to do that, so Iâm going to be going there,â referencing a proposed $1 trillion Saudi investment in the U.S.
Though Saudi Arabia did not confirm that specific amount, in January it did announce plans to boost trade and investment with the United States by $600 billion over four years, with potential for further increases.
At the same time, Saudi Arabiaâs efforts to diversify its economy away from oil still depend heavily on oil revenues. Recent price drops, partly driven by Trumpâs trade tariffs, have undercut Saudi efforts. Trump has made his preference for lower oil prices clear, a stance that conflicts with Riyadhâs need for high oil revenues to bankroll its economic transformation.
UAE Aims for Technological Leadership
Of the Gulf states, the United Arab Emirates is perhaps the most focused on leveraging investment to cement its relationship with the U.S. and generate substantial returns. Backed by vast financial resources and holding one of the highest per capita incomes in the world, the UAE has pledged trillions in American investments. Its capital, Abu Dhabi, even brands itself as âthe capital of capital.â
âExpanding trade and investment is a way to reinforce this strategic partnership,â said AlKetbi. âThe US remains a critical security guarantor for the Gulf region, while also offering a dynamic economy full of opportunities and capabilities that align with the long-term Gulf development plans.â
In March, the UAE revealed a $1.4 trillion investment plan over the next decade focused on artificial intelligence, semiconductors, manufacturing, and energy. Its existing American investments already amount to $1 trillion, according to its embassy in Washington.
âThe UAE sees a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to become a significant contributor in AI and advanced technology,â said Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president. âThe commitment to invest $1.4 trillion⊠aligns with the UAEâs goal to diversify its economy away from its over reliance on hydrocarbons to ensure prosperity for the country in the future.â
However, realizing its ambition to lead globally in AI by 2031 will be difficult without access to advanced U.S. microchips. Toward the end of President Bidenâs term, the U.S. enacted tighter restrictions on AI exports to prevent sensitive technologies from reaching adversaries such as China. These restrictions, set to take effect on May 15, include limits that also affect the UAE.
On Thursday, the U.S. announced that Trump will rescind some of those Biden-era restrictions, potentially removing a significant obstacle for the UAE.
Qatar Focuses on Strategic Diplomacy
Qatar stands out for having the most formalized security arrangement with the United States among the Gulf states. It hosts the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, which the State Department has labeled âindispensableâ for regional operations.
Last year, the U.S. discreetly extended its military presence at the base for another decade. Washington also updated its 1992 defense cooperation agreement with Qatar to further strengthen bilateral security ties.
In 2022, the Biden administration granted Qatar the status of Major Non-NATO Ally, a title reserved for nations with close military cooperation with the U.S.
Qatar has also played mediator in several global conflictsâfrom Gaza to Afghanistanâpartly as a means of maintaining its relevance in Washingtonâs eyes.
âThe Gulf states view conflict mediation as a source of influence and prestige,â said Alhasan. âThey have managed to use their role as mediators to position themselves as indispensable partners for Trumpâs political agenda.â
Doha also maintains ties with Syriaâs new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and is pushing for a U.S. review of sanctions imposed under the Caesar Act. An official familiar with the matter told CNN that Qatar will raise this issue with Trump during his visit, though Doha is reluctant to offer financial support to Syria without U.S. approval.
Ultimately, Trumpâs trip is seen by experts as an opportunity for all sides to finalize substantial agreements.
âHeâs coming here because he believes it is in the interest of the US economy, perhaps his interest and those around him, to have those deals here with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar,â said Maksad. âSo expect big announcements.â