The competition to succeed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in full swing. Leading candidates for the leadership of Trudeau’s ruling Liberal Party, including the globally recognized Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney, are vying to steer Canada through pressing domestic and international challenges, such as escalating trade disputes with the United States.
After a tumultuous year marked by political crises, Trudeau announced in January that he would resign as Liberal leader once his successor was chosen, eventually stepping down as prime minister.
This Sunday, the Liberals will finally count the votes and declare their new leader, a decision that comes as Canada gears up for a general election later this year.
Why is Trudeau stepping down?
Trudeau has led the Liberal Party for more than a decade. He first brought the Liberals to power in 2015, promising “sunny ways” for Canada. Since then, he has been re-elected twice, most recently in 2021, though that victory cost him his governing majority.
During his tenure, he championed progressive causes, including tackling climate change and addressing historic injustices against Indigenous communities. However, economic dissatisfaction has increasingly overshadowed his leadership in recent years. His administration was further shaken when Freeland, who was serving as deputy prime minister and finance minister, unexpectedly resigned just hours before delivering her annual fiscal update.
Trudeau is stepping down as the Liberal Party faces a significant challenge in the upcoming general elections, expected by October. The party has been trailing in polls against the Conservatives, led by right-wing politician Pierre Poilievre. However, recent weeks have seen the gap narrow as Trudeau’s potential successors, such as Carney, take assertive stances on trade tensions with the United States.
Though Trudeau will relinquish his role as Liberal leader after Sunday’s vote, he has not specified a timeline for stepping down as prime minister. His successor will have the authority to request new federal elections at any time—whether within days, weeks, or months.
What role does the US play?
Relations between Canada and the United States have deteriorated under President Donald Trump. Over the past three months, Trump has blamed Canada for illegal immigration into the U.S., threatened to annex Canada as the U.S.’s 51st state, and imposed steep tariffs on Canadian imports. The White House justifies these tariffs as necessary to curb fentanyl smuggling into the U.S.
The heated rhetoric between Trump and Trudeau has stirred nationalist sentiments in Canada. At NHL and NBA games in the country, some Canadian fans have even taken to booing the U.S. national anthem.
These cross-border tensions may have provided an unexpected boost to the Liberal Party, as Conservative leader Poilievre—often compared to Trump—has sought to distance himself from the U.S. president. At a press conference on Tuesday, Poilievre emphasized, “I am not MAGA.”
“Canadian politics is being convulsed by the Trump government’s assertions about Canada’s future as he saw it, and secondly by the tariffs that were very puzzling to a lot of people given the depth of interdependence between the Canadian and American economies,” said Allan Tupper, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia.
Tupper added that Trudeau’s successor would need to be a skilled negotiator, particularly regarding tariffs. “It just may be a different kind of Canada to deal with. It’s going to be more assertive, more nationalistic, and more in charge of its destiny.”
Who are the leading candidates?
Mark Carney
One of the frontrunners in the race, Carney is a former governor of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada. His campaign has focused on clean energy, climate policies, and fostering economic growth.
Carney has emphasized his role in helping Canada manage its debt during the 2008 financial crisis and in navigating the British economy through Brexit. He has also advocated leveraging Canada’s natural resources to drive prosperity while positioning the country as a leader in clean energy.
Experts suggest Carney enjoys significant support from Liberal lawmakers and members of Trudeau’s cabinet. His financial expertise makes him a compelling candidate at a time when economic concerns are at the forefront.
“He’s very competent in economics, so with these tariffs, this economic war, a lot of people are supporting him,” said Charles-Etienne Beaudy, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa and author of Radio Trump: How he won the first time.
Carney has not shied away from addressing tensions with the Trump administration. Speaking to CNN in February, he stated, “Despite being insulted on multiple occasions by senior members of the administration, we are not going to reciprocate in those insults.”
Following the announcement of U.S. tariffs last month, Carney has strongly advocated for dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs that would hurt the U.S. while minimizing the impact on Canada.
Chrystia Freeland
Freeland, a former journalist and another leading contender in the race, was one of Trudeau’s most high-profile cabinet ministers before her resignation.
Born to a Ukrainian mother in Alberta, Freeland studied at Harvard University and later worked as a journalist covering Russia and Ukraine. Entering politics in 2013, she quickly rose through the ranks of the Liberal Party, securing key cabinet positions under Trudeau.
She has prior experience negotiating with Trump on trade. As Canada’s foreign minister in 2018, she played a crucial role in renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the U.S. and Mexico—a deal that Trump has expressed interest in revisiting. She also clashed with the U.S. administration when it imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports.
Trump has personally targeted Freeland, calling her “totally toxic and not at all conducive to making deals.”
Her resignation in December signaled the beginning of Trudeau’s political decline.
On the campaign trail, Freeland has indicated support for a stricter immigration stance and has backed targeted retaliatory tariffs against the U.S.
Karina Gould
Gould, the youngest woman to ever serve as a Canadian minister, has branded herself as a candidate representing a generational shift in leadership. Launching her campaign in January, she stated that the Liberal Party “needs to embrace this shift too.”
Gould has proposed increasing corporate taxes on large businesses earning over $500 million annually. She argues that this policy would incentivize corporations to reinvest in productivity and business development, or else face higher taxes.
Her top priority, if elected, is resolving Canada’s trade dispute with the U.S. before calling for a general election. Like her competitors, she has taken a tough stance against Trump.
Frank Baylis
A businessman from Montreal, Baylis previously served as a lawmaker from 2015 to 2019. In February, he proposed constructing two pipelines to transport natural gas to Europe and Asia, reducing Canada’s economic reliance on the United States.
Baylis has warned against Canada’s heavy dependence on a single trading partner. He has also criticized Trudeau’s handling of Trump, arguing that Canadian leaders made missteps, including traveling to Mar-a-Lago to meet the U.S. president.
“Anybody that’s ever dealt with a bully successfully knows that you don’t give an inch,” Baylis told The Canadian Press last month.
As Canada prepares for new leadership, the next Liberal prime minister will face significant challenges—both at home and abroad. With the U.S. relationship in flux and economic uncertainty looming, the outcome of Sunday’s vote could shape the country’s trajectory for years to come.