In a series of recent polls, Vice President Kamala Harris has significantly reduced former President Donald Trump’s lead. This marks a shift in the competitive landscape of the upcoming presidential race. According to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted between August 11 and 14, Trump’s lead over Harris has decreased to 4 points. The survey found Trump at 49 percent and Harris close behind at 45 percent. This is a notable drop from a July poll by the same organization, which showed Trump leading by 7 points, with 50 percent to Harris’ 43 percent.
Trump, who frequently highlights favorable polls from Rasmussen Reports on his Truth Social account, may find these results surprising. The pollster, which AllSides media bias rating describes as “lean right,” has typically shown Trump with a more substantial lead. Despite this, Trump’s overall lead in the latest poll has narrowed by one point over the past week. However, there is a silver lining for Trump in terms of his appeal to independent voters.
Interestingly, Trump’s support among independents has increased by 2 points since last week. In the latest poll, Trump has secured 51 percent of the independent vote, compared to Harris’ 40 percent. Just a week prior, Trump held a 9-point advantage among these unaffiliated voters, which has now grown even larger. This could suggest a solidifying of support among a key voter demographic, despite the tightening race overall. As Rasmussen mused in a post on X (formerly known as Twitter), “Is Trump getting a DNC Convention bounce?”
While Trump has made gains with independents, Harris has made progress in winning over women voters. The latest poll shows that Harris has flipped a 2-point deficit among women to a 2-point lead, with 48 percent compared to Trump’s 46 percent. Historically, women voters have leaned heavily Democratic, and Harris appears to be benefiting from this trend. Most polls continue to show Harris leading among women, which could be a critical factor in the final election outcome.
Since Harris announced her candidacy, national polls have generally shown her overtaking Trump. According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, Harris has been consistently ahead of Trump since July 26 in six of the seven key swing states. During this period, only four national polls have placed Trump in the lead, underscoring the challenges he faces in regaining ground. Overall, Harris now holds a 3.6-point lead over Trump nationally, which is her largest average lead to date.
However, the dynamics of the race could shift if independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. decides to drop out. Reports suggest that Kennedy’s participation as a third-party candidate has been siphoning more votes away from Trump than from Harris. In various state and national polls, including a Fox News survey conducted among 1,034 Pennsylvania voters between July 22 and 24, 10 percent of Trump’s two-way supporters indicated they would prefer another candidate if third-party options were available. In contrast, only 7 percent of Harris supporters said the same.
The influence of third-party candidates is just one factor that could change the current standings. Some pollsters caution against viewing Harris’ recent gains as a guaranteed victory. A memo from July by Tony Fabrizio, a pollster for the Trump campaign, predicted a “short term” increase in Harris’ poll numbers, which he attributed to a temporary surge in enthusiasm following her entry into the race. He referred to this period as the “Harris Honeymoon,” suggesting that her bump in the polls might not be a lasting trend.
Mark Mellman, who was the lead pollster for then-Senator John Kerry, echoed a similar sentiment. He stated that Harris’ lead is not “unreal” or “unnatural” but also “not necessarily permanent.” Mellman explained to Politico, “I can certainly imagine a situation where both candidates’ favorabilities decline a little bit.” His comments reflect a broader uncertainty in the race, with many factors still at play that could influence voter sentiment before the election.
As the race continues to evolve, both candidates are likely to experience shifts in their polling numbers. The inclusion or exclusion of third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., demographic shifts among key voter groups, and the overall political climate will all play crucial roles in determining the final outcome. For now, Harris seems to have the momentum, but whether she can maintain and build on her lead remains to be seen. The coming weeks and months will be critical for both campaigns as they seek to solidify their bases and sway undecided voters in what is shaping up to be a highly competitive election.