Mohan Bhagwat’s Call for More Hindu Children Sparks Debate on India’s Religious Demography

A recent statement by Mohan Bhagwat, the head of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), urging Hindus to have more children, has reignited discussions around India’s religious demography. His remarks have highlighted significant population trends and their potential implications for the country’s social and political landscape.

India’s religious demography has been changing over the years, with the most recent census conducted in 2011 revealing noteworthy shifts. According to the data, the Muslim population’s share in India increased from 13.43 percent in 2001 to 14.23 percent in 2011, marking a rise of 0.8 percentage points. This marks the third consecutive decade where the Muslim population’s share has grown by 0.8 percentage points or more, signaling a long-term demographic trend. Since India’s independence and partition, the proportion of Muslims in the population has consistently risen every decade.

JK Bajaj, associated with the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS), has examined this trend in depth. He notes that a clearer way to understand the increase in the Muslim population’s share is by analyzing the normalized gap in the decadal growth rates between Muslims and Indian Religionists (IRs). IRs encompass Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, and those categorized as “Other Religions and Persuasions” (ORPs) in the census.

Bajaj points out that the gap between Muslim and IR growth rates, normalized to the absolute growth rate of IRs, widened to 49 percent during 1981–1991. Although this gap slightly narrowed during 1991–2001, it expanded again in the following decade. Bajaj critiques commentators who highlight the decline in the Muslim growth rate from 29.69 percent to 24.65 percent as evidence of a halt in religious demographic imbalance. “The normalized gap between the growth rates of Muslims and IRs has only widened,” he explains.

Over the past three decades, Muslims in India have grown at a rate nearly 50 percent higher than that of other communities, a disparity that Bajaj deems unsustainable in any society.

India Poised to Have the Largest Muslim Population

The CPS study further illustrates the rapid growth of the Muslim population in India. From 3.77 crore in 1951 to 17.22 crore in 2011, the Muslim population increased by a factor of 4.6, while the population of Indian Religionists grew only 3.2 times during the same period. In 2011, India had the second-largest Muslim population globally, trailing only Indonesia, which had 19.1 crore Muslims in a population of 24 crore. By comparison, Pakistan had 16.7 crore Muslims in a total population of 17.4 crore in 2010.

Given current trends, many demographers predict that within two or three decades, India will overtake Indonesia to become home to the world’s largest Muslim population.

Implications of Demographic Shifts

Globally, significant changes in religious demographics, particularly an increase in the Muslim population, have often coincided with social upheaval and conflict. In several countries, rising Muslim populations have led to demands for implementing Sharia law, often in defiance of national constitutions. Europe has witnessed religious riots and public confrontations involving Muslim radicals, while many African and Middle Eastern nations have experienced civil wars fueled by Islamic militias.

Lebanon offers a cautionary example. In the 1970s, Lebanon had a Christian majority and was a prosperous nation. However, as Muslims became the majority, the country descended into a 15-year-long civil war, resulting in widespread destruction. The conflict has since reignited, leaving Lebanon in a state of turmoil.

Once a Christian-majority democracy in the Middle East, Lebanon was often compared to Switzerland for its scenic beauty, with its capital, Beirut, rivaling Paris in allure. Today, the country is mired in instability and serves as a stronghold for terrorist organizations like Hezbollah.

The changing religious demography is also evident in Europe. A study by Pierre Rostan and Alexandra Rostan in 2019 projected that 13 European countries could see Muslims become the majority within two centuries. These include Cyprus, Sweden, France, Greece, Belgium, Bulgaria, Italy, Luxembourg, the United Kingdom, Slovenia, Switzerland, Ireland, and Lithuania.

However, the rapid influx of Muslim immigrants and their higher fertility rates could accelerate this timeline. “The greater the proportion of Muslims in a country, the faster the change will be in the society,” the study notes. Examples of such changes include the construction of mosques, prayer calls broadcast through loudspeakers, public worship, the availability of halal products in supermarkets, and work schedules adapted to Ramadan.

The RSS and Religious Demography

The RSS has long engaged in discussions about religious demography. Initially, these discussions focused on the conversion of Hindus to Islam and Christianity. However, in 2005, the Chennai-based Centre for Policy Studies published a report titled Religious Demography of India, which brought new attention to the issue. The report highlighted the rapid growth of the Muslim population and its potential implications for India’s future.

According to the CPS, the current demographic trends, combined with the declining Hindu populations in Pakistan and Bangladesh, could result in Indian Religionists becoming a minority in the Indian subcontinent within five to six decades. This prospect has deeply concerned the RSS.

Bhagwat’s recent call for Hindus to have more children reflects these concerns. As demographic trends continue to evolve, the debate over religious demography in India is likely to intensify, raising questions about the country’s social harmony and long-term stability.