Vice President Kamala Harris has significantly reduced former President Donald Trump’s lead since she assumed the role of Democratic presidential candidate from Joe Biden. According to recent polls, Harris is now tied with Trump in crucial swing states and leads him by a slim margin nationwide.
Key Facts
A CBS News poll released on Sunday reveals that Harris holds a one-point lead over Trump nationally, a shift driven in part by increased support from younger and Black voters, along with women who believe Harris will advocate for their interests (margin of error 2.1 points). The CBS News survey, conducted from July 30 to August 2, also shows a deadlock between Harris and Trump across seven key battleground states, namely Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada.
Further support for Harris emerges in an Economist/YouGov poll released on Wednesday, which places her two points ahead of Trump, 46% to 44%, in a five-way race that includes third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West. This trend is consistent with several other polls taken since Biden withdrew from the race. Harris is currently ahead in at least four more surveys, although Trump maintains a lead in at least eight others. Many of these polls, however, indicate that Harris has eroded Trump’s advantage over Biden and that her approval rating has improved since she launched her campaign.
Morning Consult’s weekly poll, conducted from July 26 to 28, shows Harris with a one-point lead over Trump, 47% to 46%, marking the second consecutive week she has outperformed Trump in their poll. Additionally, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday indicates Harris is leading by one point, 43% to 42%, although this is a slight decrease from her two-point lead in their previous survey conducted July 22-23.
In contrast, Trump led Harris by three points in a Harvard CAPS-Harris poll conducted from July 26 to 28 when respondents were given the option to choose “don’t know/unsure.” This marks a four-point drop from Trump’s seven-point lead over Biden in a June Harvard CAPS-Harris poll. In a two-way matchup, Trump maintains a four-point lead over Harris, consistent with his previous lead over Biden in June.
Other polls reflect a narrow advantage for Trump. A New York Times/Siena poll conducted from July 22 to 24 shows Trump with a one-point lead, 48% to 47%. Similarly, a Wall Street Journal poll from July 23 to 25 and a HarrisX/Forbes online survey released on June 26 both show Trump leading by two points, 49% to 47% and 47% to 45%, respectively.
Additional polls present a consistent, albeit slight, lead for Trump. He is ahead by three points, 49% to 46%, in an online CNN/SSRS survey conducted July 22-23, by two points, 47% to 45%, in another Morning Consult poll, by one point, 46% to 45%, in a NPR/PBS/Marist poll, and by three points, 44% to 41%, in an Economist/YouGov poll conducted from July 21 to 23. The latter poll also finds Kennedy with 5% support.
Despite these mixed results, polls consistently show that Harris outperforms Biden. Before Biden exited the race, he trailed Trump by six points in polls conducted by Morning Consult, CNN/SSRS, The Wall Street Journal, and Times/Siena.
Big Number
Trump leads Harris by an average of 0.8 points, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. Conversely, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average gives Harris a 1.5-point lead.
Surprising Fact
The New York Times/Siena poll highlights an increased voter engagement following the June 27 Biden-Trump debate, which was largely viewed as a poor showing for Biden. Since the debate, 64% of respondents reported paying close attention to the election, up from 48% before the debate.
Harris vs. Trump in Swing States
Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states that are likely to determine the election outcome: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, as indicated by a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted from July 24 to 28. Harris is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, while Trump leads in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The two are tied in Georgia.
Tangent
Democrats appear more enthusiastic about Harris than they were about Biden, as shown by the Times/Siena survey. Nearly 80% of Democratic-leaning voters express a preference for Harris as the nominee, compared to just 48% who said the same about Biden three weeks earlier. The contrast is also evident in perceptions of mental fitness, with 56% of voters in a Reuters/Ipsos poll stating that Harris is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% who said the same about Trump and only 22% for Biden. Moreover, a 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll found that 87% of Americans support Biden’s decision to end his campaign. More respondents believe this decision will benefit the Democratic Party (45%) rather than the Republican Party (29%).
The 19th News survey also indicates a divide in public opinion regarding Harris’ gender and race. Thirty-one percent of respondents think her being a woman will help her, while 33% believe it will hurt her, and 34% see no impact. There is more optimism regarding Harris’ identity as Black and Indian American, with 32% viewing it as a benefit, 24% seeing it as a disadvantage, and 41% expecting it to have no impact.
Contra
Tony Fabrizio, a pollster for the Trump campaign, predicted a temporary boost in Harris’ polling numbers, coining the term “Harris Honeymoon” in a memo released after the Reuters/Ipsos poll became public. Fabrizio suggested this surge would be short-lived as her entry into the race is expected to energize Democratic voters.