In a spectacular turn of events, India’s stock market has achieved a historic milestone, surging past the $4 trillion mark in market valuation. The year 2023 witnessed India securing its position as a stock market superpower, trailing only behind the United States, China, Japan, and Hong Kong. This momentous feat underscores the remarkable performance of Nifty and Sensex, India's primary stock market indices, which soared to new heights. Notably, Nifty experienced a remarkable growth of 18.5%, while Sensex posted a robust 17.3% growth in 2023.
As the world grappled with ongoing conflicts and a global economic slowdown, India’s stock exchanges displayed resilience and outshone their counterparts worldwide. To put India’s success into context, it is essential to examine the broader global economic environment. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported in October 2023 that the global growth rate was expected to dip from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% in 2023. In contrast, India defied expectations with a projected annual growth rate of 6.3%, surpassing the realized growth rate of 7.2% in 2022.
Despite a global inflation rate expected to decline to 6.9% in 2023, India’s quarterly growth rates in 2023 exceeded expectations, with the economy expanding by 7.8% in Q2-23 and 7.6% in Q3-23. These positive indicators, coupled with India’s ability to maintain annual average retail inflation within 6%, contributed to the investor confidence evident in the record-breaking performance of the Indian stock markets.
In a stark contrast to the global economic landscape, India received a net Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) of $20.2 billion in 2023, the highest among emerging markets, bringing the total FPI to an impressive $723 billion. Notably, while Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) saw a decline of 16% in 2023 globally, India’s stock market continued to attract significant foreign investments. The aftermath of the Covid-19-induced global economic recession witnessed a negative growth rate of -3.1% worldwide. However, India’s high growth rate positioned Indian companies as attractive options for global investors seeking better returns on their investments. The surge in Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) reflects the confidence global investors place in India’s economic resilience.
Several factors contribute to India’s sustained high economic growth rate. First, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has demonstrated political stability and proactive market reforms. Initiatives such as Goods and Services Tax (GST), the JAM trinity (Jandhan, Aadhar, Mobile), Digital Payments (UPI), Make in India, and Production Link Incentives (PLI) schemes have propelled India’s economic growth.
Second, the Indian government, led by Prime Minister Modi, has significantly increased capital expenditure, reaching $250 billion in 2023-24, a remarkable 433% increase from the FY 2013-14 figure of $48 billion. The focus on infrastructure development is expected to stimulate private investment, further bolstering economic growth.
Post Covid-19, GDP data indicates a strengthening of private investment, with Q3 estimates showing a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%. The surge in government and private capital expenditure has boosted domestic demand, insulating the Indian economy from external shocks and global economic challenges.
Third, despite a substantial increase in capital expenditure, India’s fiscal deficit is contracting. The government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation, supported by robust growth in net direct tax and GST collections, instills confidence in external investors. India’s fiscal deficit target of 5.9% in FY 2023-24 is expected to be achieved, further facilitating access to cheaper investment funds.
Fourth, proactive measures by the Reserve Bank of India have strengthened the Indian banking system, reducing bad loans and supporting credit growth, which is projected to exceed 15% in FY 2023-24. The health of the banking system reflects robust economic activity within India and ensures the availability of funds for consumption and investment expenditure.
In conclusion, 2023 has been a triumphant year for the Indian economy, marking a significant milestone in its capital market. India’s outperformance and positive economic indicators signal a bright future, with the nation poised to continue leading the global economy despite prevailing challenges. The convergence of political stability, proactive reforms, increased capital expenditure, and a resilient banking system positions India as a beacon of confidence in the global economic
