The United States may face a potential economic loss of up to $6 billion due to a notable decrease in tourism from Canada, according to a recent analysis of travel data.
This trend has emerged as a result of rising trade tensions between the two countries, triggered by tariffs imposed during Donald Trump’s presidency. The imposition of tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China — including a 25 percent tariff on Canadian imports and a 10 percent tariff specifically targeting Canadian energy imports — has sparked fears of a full-scale trade conflict. These measures have not only strained political and economic relations but have also triggered consumer backlash across the border.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded to the tariffs by urging citizens to support local products. His appeal to the public to “buy Canadian” encouraged a wave of boycotts against American goods, reinforcing national pride and strengthening domestic economic activity. This sentiment has now spilled over into the tourism sector.
In response to the U.S. tariffs, Canada introduced retaliatory tariffs valued at C$155 billion. The Canadian government also took specific action by excluding Tesla vehicles from eligibility for its electric vehicle rebate program, a move widely seen as a direct counter to the U.S. trade policies.
The effects of this strained economic relationship are now being reflected in travel trends. According to aviation analytics company OAG, forward bookings from Canadian travelers to the U.S. have plummeted by more than 70 percent for every month through the end of September, when compared to the same period the previous year. As Canadian tourism makes up a significant portion of U.S. travel-related income, this sharp decline poses a major threat to the American tourism industry.
Supporting this trend, Statistics Canada data reveals a dramatic decrease in Canadian travelers entering the U.S. by both road and air. Specifically, there was a 32 percent reduction in road trips from Canada to the United States in March 2025 compared to March 2024. Meanwhile, the number of air travelers from Canada fell by 13.5 percent over the same time period.
The potential consequences of this decline are substantial. The U.S. Travel Association (USTA) reported in February that a 10 percent drop in Canadian tourism could jeopardize around 140,000 jobs and lead to a loss of $2.1 billion in travel spending. According to Forbes, using this calculation, a 30 percent decline in Canadian tourists could amount to an estimated $6 billion blow to the U.S. economy.
Tourism from Canada has historically been a reliable economic contributor to the United States, and any disruption to this flow of visitors could result in a ripple effect on regional and national levels. In border towns and popular American tourist destinations, local businesses dependent on Canadian visitors are already feeling the strain.
Experts suggest the causes for the downturn in travel are multi-layered and deeply rooted in political and social tensions. Bryan S. R. Grimwood, a professor and associate chair in the department of recreation and leisure studies at the University of Waterloo, provided insight into the shift in travel habits. Speaking to Newsweek, Grimwood explained that Canadian travel to the U.S. is being impacted by a combination of evolving priorities and growing political discomfort.
“In my read of the situation, the decline in Canadian travel to the US is a function of three interrelated things: (1) an uncertainty about visiting the US due to potential safety concerns and inconvenience (e.g., at the border); (2) a refusal to spend travel dollars in the US as a response to the Trump administration’s intimidation tactics relating to trade, border security, and sovereignty; and (3) a rise in Canadian patriotism that is translating into a choice to support Canadian businesses, services, and products,” he said.
Grimwood further emphasized that while political actions have influenced Canadian choices, the overall sentiment toward American citizens remains positive. “I do think the decline in Canadian travel to the US is significant for relations between the two countries. My sense though is that Canadians continue to cherish and respect the American people – as our government leaders have consistently expressed – and that the current moment is a reaction specifically to the Trump administration’s approach,” he added.
Echoing this sentiment, Lana Payne, national president of Unifor, the largest private sector union in Canada, previously remarked on the damage done to U.S.-Canada relations due to President Trump’s policies. “Canada has always considered itself to be America’s best friend and closest ally, but that relationship has been severely damaged by the actions of President Trump,” she told Newsweek.
As tensions persist, the future of Canadian travel to the U.S. remains uncertain. While the economic implications are already beginning to unfold, it is unclear whether the decline in tourism is a temporary reaction to political circumstances or part of a longer-term shift in Canadian consumer behavior.
What happens next will likely depend on political developments, trade policy revisions, and the tone of cross-border diplomacy in the months ahead. The travel industry in the United States, especially sectors reliant on Canadian visitors, continues to watch closely, hoping for signs of recovery or at least stabilization.
The coming months will determine whether this informal travel boycott becomes a lasting trend and whether American businesses can adapt to mitigate the economic fallout. If the rift remains unresolved, the financial consequences for the U.S. could grow even steeper.
