Americans are casting their votes in a tightly contested presidential election on Tuesday, with polling hours beginning to close at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT) and wrapping up at 01:00 EST (06:00 GMT) on Wednesday. Despite previous elections where results were called within hours, this year’s competitive race between Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump may require additional time before a winner is declared. In past elections, winners have been named by late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, but this year’s close competition could delay media outlets from projecting a definitive victor.
The razor-thin margin of victory in some states may also lead to recounts. For instance, Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state, mandates a recount if the margin between candidates is less than 0.5%. In the 2020 election, Pennsylvania’s margin was only slightly above 1%, highlighting how close this year’s results could be. Legal disputes are also anticipated, with more than 100 lawsuits filed before election day, primarily by Republicans questioning voter eligibility and management of voter rolls.
Delays in results could also be exacerbated by election-related disruptions, such as issues at polling sites. However, in certain areas like Michigan, the speed of vote counting has improved since 2020, as fewer mail-in ballots were cast compared to the pandemic election period.
Historically, results for most presidential races have been declared within hours. For instance, Trump was confirmed as the 2016 winner by 03:00 EST on election night, and in 2012, Obama’s reelection was projected before midnight. However, the 2000 election serves as a notable outlier; the battle between George W. Bush and Al Gore extended over five weeks and was ultimately resolved by the Supreme Court, which ruled to halt Florida’s recount, securing Bush’s win.
This election is expected to hinge on outcomes from seven key swing states where both Harris and Trump have viable chances of victory. Early voting turnout has been exceptionally high, breaking records in states like Georgia, where election officials estimate around 75% of ballots will be counted within the first two hours after polls close. North Carolina’s votes, on the other hand, are expected to be available by night’s end. Pennsylvania may take at least 24 hours for a sufficient number of votes to be tallied to determine a winner, while Michigan’s results are anticipated late Wednesday. Wisconsin could provide early data after its polls close at 21:00 EST, though a final outcome may not be available until the next day.
In Arizona, preliminary results might be reported as soon as 22:00 EST, but Maricopa County, the state’s largest, warns that full results might not arrive until early Wednesday. The situation in Nevada could be even more prolonged, as mail-in ballots postmarked on election day are accepted until 9 November.
Election analysts caution against interpreting early vote counts as definitive, noting that in 2020, initial results favored Trump before mail-in ballots boosted Biden’s totals. This led to Trump’s subsequent false claims that the election was “stolen.” Experts predict similar shifts may occur this year, with a possible “red mirage” favoring Trump or a “blue mirage” suggesting an early lead for Harris. According to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, over 83 million Americans have voted early, with women constituting 54% of these voters—a demographic that may benefit Harris. However, Republican turnout in early voting has also risen significantly, indicating a less predictable trend.
The process of tallying votes usually starts with those cast on election day, followed by early and absentee ballots, challenged votes, and finally military and overseas ballots. Local election officials, some appointed and others elected, conduct canvassing to verify and process each ballot. This meticulous process involves comparing cast ballots with active voter lists, checking for any ballot damage, and resolving inconsistencies. The votes are then fed into electronic scanners to be tabulated, though some cases may require manual recounts or verification. Strict regulations govern every state and county, including who can oversee the canvassing and how partisan observers are permitted to monitor vote counting.
After every valid ballot is included, the electoral college process begins, determining the presidency based on electoral votes rather than popular votes. Each state awards its electoral votes to the candidate who wins the majority, a result confirmed after electoral college meetings on 17 December. On 6 January, the newly convened US Congress meets to count these votes and formally confirm the next president.
Following the 2020 election, Trump refused to accept defeat, calling on supporters to protest at the Capitol on the day Congress certified Biden’s win. Trump also pressed Vice-President Mike Pence to reject the results, though Pence declined. Despite attempts by some congressional Republicans to overturn Biden’s victory, reforms since then have clarified that the vice president lacks the authority to discard electoral votes unilaterally. Still, concerns persist that efforts to contest the 2024 results could arise at local and state levels, especially given that Trump and Republican leaders, including running mate JD Vance, have refrained from unequivocally committing to accept the election outcome.
If the election results in a tie—an outcome that would yield each candidate 269 electoral votes—then the House of Representatives would vote to select the president in a procedure called a contingent election, while the Senate would choose the vice-president. Although such a situation has not occurred in roughly 200 years, it remains a constitutional possibility.
The new president will be inaugurated on 20 January 2025, marking the 60th such ceremony in US history. During this event, the president-elect will pledge to uphold the Constitution before delivering their inaugural address on the grounds of the US Capitol.
