Experts warn that while over 90% of Iranian missiles are intercepted, the cost of defense systems raises concerns about long-term sustainability and an emerging imbalance in military capabilities.
As U.S., Israeli, and allied forces continue to intercept the vast majority of Iranian missiles and drones, a new report highlights a growing concern regarding the sustainability of these defense systems. According to a report obtained by Fox News Digital from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), more than 90% of Iranian projectiles have been intercepted during the ongoing conflict, thanks to a layered regional air defense system developed through years of collaboration among nations.
However, beneath this apparent success lies a widening imbalance that could significantly influence the next phase of the conflict. The report emphasizes a critical trend: Iran’s low-cost weapons are proving to be the most disruptive, draining the costly interceptor stockpiles of the U.S. and its allies.
The current air defense architecture, which integrates systems from the U.S., Israel, and Arab nations, has demonstrated high effectiveness in thwarting incoming threats. Early warning systems, shared radar coverage, and pre-positioned assets have enabled multiple countries to work together to neutralize Iranian missiles and drones. During a recent press briefing, press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated, “More than 9,000 enemy targets have been struck to date… Iran’s ballistic missile attacks and drone attacks are down by roughly 90%.” She added that U.S. forces have also destroyed over 140 Iranian naval vessels, including nearly 50 mine layers.
A surge of U.S. military assets prior to the conflict, including Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries, Patriot systems, two carrier strike groups, and approximately 200 fighter aircraft, has contributed to maintaining high interception rates, according to the JINSA report. However, Ari Cicurel, associate director of foreign policy at JINSA and the report’s author, cautioned that focusing solely on interception percentages overlooks a more significant issue.
“Overall high missile and drone interception rates have been important but only tell part of the story,” Cicurel told Fox News Digital. “Iran entered this war with a deliberate plan to dismantle the architecture that makes those intercepts possible. It has targeted energy infrastructure to disrupt markets and employed cluster munitions to achieve higher hit rates.”
Middle East and national security expert Danny Citrinowicz, affiliated with the Institute for National Security Studies and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, echoed Cicurel’s concerns. “There needs to be a change in the equation,” he said. “The Iranians are launching drones that cost around $30,000, while we are using missiles that cost millions of dollars to intercept them. That gap is a very problematic one.” He noted that the same dynamic applies to ballistic missiles, with Iranian missiles costing only a few hundred thousand dollars compared to the millions required for interceptors, particularly advanced systems like Arrow.
This cost imbalance raises broader concerns about interceptor depletion. The JINSA report warns that stockpiles across the region are already under strain. Some Gulf states have utilized a significant portion of their interceptor inventories, with estimates suggesting that Bahrain may have expended up to 87% of its Patriot missiles, while the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have used approximately 75%, and Qatar around 40%. Israel is also facing increasing pressure, with signs of rationing emerging, such as decisions not to intercept certain cluster-munition threats to conserve more advanced interceptors.
Citrinowicz emphasized that the dynamics become more acute as the conflict continues. “We are now several weeks into the war, and even if the salvos are limited, the issue of interceptors becomes more significant over time,” he said. Iran has adapted its tactics, shifting from large-scale barrages to smaller, more frequent attacks designed to maintain constant pressure while gradually depleting defensive resources. These persistent salvos compel defenders to remain on high alert and continue expending interceptors, accelerating the depletion of already finite stockpiles.
The report underscores that drones present a unique challenge compared to ballistic missiles. Unlike missiles, which rely on large launchers and leave detectable signatures, drones can be launched from mobile platforms and fly at low altitudes, making them harder for radar systems to detect. For instance, a Shahed-136 drone weighs approximately 200 kilograms and can be launched from an angled rail mounted on a pickup truck, allowing the crew to relocate quickly after firing. This simpler launch profile enables Iran to disperse, conceal, and fire under pressure.
Moreover, Iran has incorporated lessons learned from the war in Ukraine, deploying more advanced drones, including those guided by fiber-optic cables that are resistant to electronic jamming, as well as faster variants powered by jet engines. These innovations complicate interception timelines and increase the likelihood of successful strikes, even against otherwise effective defense systems.
Despite these challenges, the report emphasizes that the defensive architecture has not failed. “The architecture has held, but the trajectory is moving in the wrong direction,” Cicurel stated. “Reversing it requires moving assets to where the pressure is greatest, hunting Iranian launchers and drones more aggressively, and convoying ships through the Gulf.” Even with high interception rates, the broader impact of the attacks is evident. Iranian strikes on energy infrastructure and shipping have driven oil prices higher and disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, illustrating that air defense alone cannot prevent economic and strategic consequences.
The emerging picture is not one of failing defenses, but rather a system under growing strain. As long as Iran can produce cheap drones and missiles faster than the U.S., Israel, and their partners can produce interceptors, the balance may gradually shift. “As long as the war continues,” Citrinowicz concluded, “the key question will be whether Iran can produce missiles faster than we can produce interceptors,” according to Fox News Digital.