As a historian and editor of a three-volume history of the papacy, watching the newly released film Conclave was practically obligatory. The movie, featuring Ralph Fiennes as the dean of the College of Cardinals, is a political thriller centered around the death of a fictional pope and the intense internal battle to elect his successor. It portrays the Vatican as a place filled with intrigue, scandals, and ruthless competition for power.
The film has gained additional relevance with real-world events, as Pope Francis has recently been hospitalized in critical condition in Rome due to double pneumonia. Despite his health struggles, the Vatican announced this week that the 88-year-old pope continued his duties, appointing four new bishops from his hospital bed. However, today, he suffered a setback with a severe breathing crisis.
Adapted from Robert Harris’ 2016 novel, the film has received numerous award nominations and several major wins. It provides a close look at the politics involved in electing a pope to lead the world’s 1.36 billion Catholics. The movie presents a stark divide between reactionary cardinals who wish to restore traditional practices, including the Latin Mass, and reformist cardinals who support modernization and inclusivity, such as interfaith dialogue and broader acceptance within the Church. Remarkably, the deceased pope in the movie influences the Church’s future leadership even after his passing.
Last month, I conducted research in the Vatican Apostolic Archives, and I found the language and behavior of the film’s characters strikingly authentic. Even more compelling was how closely the onscreen struggle between Vatican factions mirrors the ongoing power dynamics within the Catholic Church today.
Rival Factions in the Vatican: Fiction and Reality
Pope Francis represents a more progressive faction within the Church and has been vocal on contemporary political matters. He has openly supported efforts to combat climate change, called for workers’ rights, and has not hesitated to criticize world leaders. Notably, he has condemned former U.S. President Donald Trump for his stance on refugees and migrants, as well as former Vice President Kamala Harris for her support of abortion rights. Furthermore, he has approved blessings for same-sex couples and individuals in “irregular” circumstances, including divorced and LGBTQ+ Catholics.
Despite his efforts to modernize the Church, a significant conservative faction remainsfirmly opposed to his reforms. These traditionalists resist his leniency on issues related to LGBTQ+ and divorced Catholics, preferring a return to older traditions such as the Latin Mass and stricter gender roles. This internal struggle makes predicting the next papal election particularly difficult.
Within the College of Cardinals, conservatives hold a numerical advantage. Of the approximately 252 members, only 138 are eligible to vote in the papal election. However, much like the late pope in the film, Francis has taken strategic steps to shape the future of the Church. Since becoming pope in 2013, he has appointed 149 new cardinals, many from underrepresented developing nations. By diversifying the College of Cardinals, he may be increasing the chances of a progressive successor.
The future leadership of the Catholic Church will ultimately bedetermined in the next conclave, and despite some modern changes, the process remains remarkably similar to what it was centuries ago.
The Evolution of Papal Elections
The term “conclave” originates from Latin, meaning “with key,” referencing how cardinals are sequestered—effectively locked away—during the process of electing a new pope. The method of papal selection has undergone significant transformations over the centuries, largely to prevent corruption and external interference.
During the Middle Ages, popes wielded far greater power than they do today. In addition to providing spiritual guidance, they played a key role in politics, diplomacy, and economic affairs, controlling the wealthiest institution in Europe. As a result, papal elections were often chaotic and fraught with violence.
Initially, the selection of a pope was decided by the “people of Rome,” but in practice, this meant that the process was dominated by mobs, aristocrats, monarchs, or any influential figure who controlled the city. Elections could be settled either through negotiation or by brute force. It was not uncommon for those in power to handpick the next pope.
Power Struggles and Looting
Alongside external pressures, an unfortunate tradition emerged where mobs would loot the deceased pope’s possessions—including the garments from his very corpse. This gruesome practice is subtly referenced in Conclave, when a cardinal asks Fiennes’ character if he can take the late pope’s chess set.
There were several reasons behind this looting—greed was certainly a factor, but so was the belief that relics belonging to a holy figure held special significance. Additionally, the common people may have resented the loss of their role in selecting the pope and sought compensation through theft.
In an effort to bring order to this chaotic process, Pope Nicholas II issued a decree in 1059 stating that only clergy—specifically cardinal-bishops—could elect the pope. A century later, Pope Alexander III expanded voting rights to include all cardinals and established the two-thirds majority rule, which remains in place today.
However, these reforms did not eliminate the turbulence surrounding papal elections. For centuries, conflicts and rivalries continued, and looting expanded to include the homes of cardinals. Running for pope remained a dangerous ambition—often leading to violence or destruction of property.
The Establishment of the Conclave System
In 1274, Pope Gregory X introduced a key reform: sequestering cardinals in strict isolation during the election process. This ensured that external influences could not manipulate the outcome. Additionally, the uncomfortable conditions—limited attendants, simple living quarters, and reduced meals—encouraged cardinals to reach a decision swiftly. If they failed toelect a pope within three days, they were restricted to just one daily meal. The motivation to avoid hunger likely expedited many elections.
Despite these precautions, controversies still arose. Following the death of Pope Gregory XI in 1378, the cardinals elected Pope Urban VI but quickly regretted their decision. Just months later, they deposed him and elected a new pope, Clement VII. This led to the Great Western Schism (1378–1417), during which two rival popes, one in Rome and one in Avignon, France, divided the Catholic Church for nearly 40 years.
Modern Papal Elections and the Next Conclave
While modern conclaves are unlikely to produce dual papacies, the next election—whenever it takes place—will still be significant. Cardinals will once again be isolated and left to vote based on their conscience.
The practice of using smoke signals to communicate election results is a relatively recent tradition, originating in the 1800s. Initially, the Vatican burned paper ballots to indicate whether a decision had been reached. Over time, this evolved into a more elaborate system: black smoke signals a deadlock, while white smoke announces that a new pope has been chosen.
Though modern conclaves take place behind closed doors, political maneuvering remains a part of the process. Cardinals continue to lobby for their preferred candidates, shaping the future direction of the Catholic Church. Whether the next pope will continue Francis’ progressive approach or revert to more traditional values will depend on the collective decision of these cardinals.
Joëlle Rollo-Koster, a professor of medieval history at the University of Rhode Island and editor of The Cambridge History of the Papacy, brings extensive knowledge of papal history to her work. Her expertise offers valuable insight into both the historical and contemporary significance of the conclave system.
