By putting the Indus Waters Treaty on hold, India has gained a unique opportunity to expedite key hydroelectric projects such as Kishanganga, Ratle, and Pakal Dul in Jammu and Kashmir. These projects are no longer just energy-generating initiatives but have also become critical tools for applying strategic pressure on Pakistan.
Pakistan has been visibly unsettled by India’s move, displaying clear signs of anxiety. The Pakistani government has labeled the decision as an “act of war,” while prominent PPP leader Bilawal Bhutto issued a stark threat, saying, “either our water or their (India’s) blood will flow in the Sindhu (Indus).” According to top government sources in India, the psychological impact of India’s decision is already evident. Pakistan’s political leadership is now facing significant pressure from its citizens, who are increasingly concerned about the potential consequences of India controlling the flow of water from the western rivers.
For India, this development means it no longer needs to concern itself with Pakistan’s objections at international platforms regarding the Kishanganga, Ratle, and Pakal Dul hydroelectric projects. Collectively, these projects strengthen India’s geopolitical messaging and strategic position, allowing it to exert greater influence over Pakistan. The recent terror attack sponsored by Pakistan on civilians in Pahalgam has fundamentally altered the dynamics between the two nations. India is now signaling that Pakistani civilians will bear consequences for the provocations initiated by their army.
The Kishanganga Project, inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2018 in Bandipora, already diverted water from the Jhelum River through a 23-kilometer-long tunnel. On the same occasion, Modi also laid the foundation stone for the Pakal Dul Power Project. This project is significant as it represents Jammu and Kashmir’s first storage project and is the largest hydroelectric venture in the region with a capacity of 1000 megawatts. Standing at a height of 167 meters, the Pakal Dul project offers India actual control over the flow of water, not merely its usage. Completion is expected by mid-2026, adding another critical component to India’s strategic toolkit.
Another project that is causing major concern for Pakistan is the 850 MW Ratle Hydro Electric Project located in Jammu and Kashmir. This project achieved a significant breakthrough last year when the Chenab River was successfully diverted through specially constructed tunnels at Drabshalla in Kishtwar district. This diversion enabled the isolation of the dam site at the riverbed, allowing essential excavation and construction activities to commence.
With the Indus Waters Treaty effectively suspended, India is now free to advance with the Ratle Project without needing to address Pakistan’s previous design-related objections. Pakistan had consistently raised issues with the spillway height and drawdown levels of the project. However, with no treaty constraints binding India, these objections are now irrelevant. The Modi government had already given the green light to the Ratle project in 2021 with a substantial investment of Rs 5,282 crore, signaling its firm commitment to completing the project.
The most recent engagement between India and Pakistan on the Indus Waters Treaty took place last year in June. During that meeting, a Pakistani delegation traveled to India and inspected several dam sites in the Kishtwar region. Despite their visit, Pakistan persisted in objecting to the Kishanganga, Ratle, and Pakal Dul hydroelectric projects, alleging violations of the Indus Waters Treaty’s provisions. Nevertheless, the treaty, originally signed in 1960 by then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s former President Ayub Khan, with the World Bank acting as a signatory, now belongs to the past.
The freezing of the Indus Waters Treaty marks a pivotal shift in India’s strategy towards Pakistan. With the suspension, India gains greater autonomy over the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. This change enables New Delhi to manipulate the hydrological landscape of the region in ways that can be used for both developmental and strategic purposes.
India’s new stance also reflects a deeper understanding of the evolving security environment in the region. After years of restraint despite provocations, the government is now demonstrating that economic and environmental tools, such as control over river waters, can be effectively used to counter acts of terrorism and other hostile activities from across the border. India’s construction of these large-scale hydroelectric projects thus serves a dual purpose, securing energy independence for Jammu and Kashmir while simultaneously placing pressure on Pakistan.
The Kishanganga project, having already been operational for several years, demonstrates the feasibility and strategic importance of such initiatives. Meanwhile, the Pakal Dul and Ratle projects promise even greater influence over the Indus water system once they become fully operational. In addition to their strategic utility, these projects are vital for boosting the local economy in Jammu and Kashmir, generating thousands of jobs, improving infrastructure, and enhancing energy availability across the region.
Pakistan’s reaction to these developments underscores the seriousness with which Islamabad views India’s moves. The stark threat issued by Bilawal Bhutto and the labeling of the treaty suspension as an “act of war” show that Pakistan understands the implications of losing its previously guaranteed water flow under the Indus Waters Treaty. As the projects near completion, Pakistan faces an increasingly difficult position with limited avenues for recourse.
In the broader geopolitical context, India’s decision sends a clear message to both its neighbors and the international community. New Delhi is signaling that it will no longer allow agreements crafted in a different era to constrain its strategic and security interests today. With the World Bank’s role as a guarantor now rendered symbolic, India has effectively asserted that new realities require new strategies.
Going forward, India’s ability to regulate the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab will likely serve as a significant deterrent against Pakistani aggression. As India strengthens its control over these river systems, Pakistan may be forced to reconsider its continued support for hostile activities, knowing that the consequences could be immediate and deeply felt by its population.
Thus, by putting the Indus Waters Treaty into cold storage, India has not just taken a technical decision regarding water management. It has made a calculated geopolitical move that reshapes the strategic landscape of South Asia, offering a potent combination of energy security, regional development, and strategic deterrence.