On Wednesday, Hamas’ highest-ranking political leader was killed in a pre-dawn airstrike in Tehran, according to both Iranian and Hamas officials, who have accused Israel of orchestrating the assassination. This act has heightened fears of an expanded regional conflict. Iran’s supreme leader has vowed retaliation against Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded by stating that Israel would “exact a very heavy price from any aggression against us on any front,” though he did not specifically address the assassination. “There are challenging days ahead,” Netanyahu remarked.
This strike follows Israel’s pledge to target Ismail Haniyeh and other senior Hamas figures in response to the group’s October 7 attack on southern Israel, which ignited the current Gaza conflict. The timing of the assassination was particularly provocative, occurring shortly after Haniyeh’s participation in the inauguration of Iran’s new president in Tehran, and just hours after Israel targeted a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut.
The assassination is seen as highly dangerous due to the intricate and volatile nature of the regional conflicts. The risk of provoking a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel is significant if Iran decides to retaliate. In response, the U.S. and other countries are working to prevent a larger, more destructive conflict.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a statement on his official website, described the act as a “duty” to avenge, asserting that Israel had “prepared a harsh punishment for itself” by killing “a dear guest in our home.”
Earlier this year, tensions between Israel and Iran were heightened when Israel struck Iran’s embassy in Damascus in April, leading to Iranian retaliation and an unprecedented series of attacks on each other’s territory. International efforts managed to contain the escalation at that time.
The assassination of Haniyeh might also disrupt ongoing cease-fire and hostage negotiations in Gaza, which had shown some progress, according to U.S. mediators. Additionally, it could further inflame tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, especially after a recent rocket attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights that resulted in the deaths of 12 young people.
On Tuesday evening, Israel conducted a rare strike in Beirut, claiming to have killed a senior Hezbollah commander linked to the rocket attack. Hezbollah confirmed the death of Fouad Shukur, who was in the building hit by the strike. Lebanese Health Ministry reports indicate that the strike also resulted in the deaths of three women and two children.
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby stated there was “no sign that an escalation is imminent” and that a cease-fire agreement for Gaza remained a possibility. He noted that the U.S. had not independently verified the events in Tehran and questioned whether Israel had informed the U.S. of the operation in advance.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, when asked about the assassination, confirmed, “This is something we were not aware of or involved in.” He refrained from speculating on its impact on cease-fire efforts in an interview with Channel News Asia.
The U.N. Security Council convened an emergency meeting to address the strikes, with both Iran and Israel urging condemnation of the other. However, the council failed to issue a unified statement. Members expressed concern over the precarious situation, urged restraint, and called for diplomatic solutions while also highlighting longstanding conflicts.
Khalil al-Hayya, a prominent Hamas figure close to Haniyeh, assured journalists in Iran that Haniyeh’s successor would adhere to the same vision for negotiations and maintain the policy of resistance against Israel.
Hamas is expected to convene its consultative body soon, likely after Haniyeh’s funeral in Qatar, to appoint a successor. A statement from Hamas indicated that a funeral service would be held in Tehran on Thursday, with Muslim funeral prayers on Friday in Doha, followed by burial in Lusail, Qatar’s second largest city.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin expressed hope for a diplomatic resolution concerning the Israeli-Lebanese border, stating, “I don’t think that war is inevitable. I think there’s always room and opportunity for diplomacy, and I’d like to see parties pursue those opportunities.”
Yet, the diplomatic community remains concerned. A Western diplomat, who wished to remain anonymous, described the strikes in Beirut and Tehran as having “almost killed” hopes for a Gaza cease-fire and potentially driving the Middle East toward a “devastating regional war.”
Israel typically avoids commenting on assassinations by its Mossad intelligence agency or strikes on foreign soil. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, in a statement, indicated that while Israel does not seek war after the strike on the Hezbollah commander, “we are preparing for all possibilities.” The statement made no reference to the Haniyeh assassination, and a summary of his call with Austin provided by the U.S. did not include it.
The killing of Haniyeh abroad highlights Israel’s struggle to eliminate Hamas’ top leadership within Gaza, who are believed to have been chiefly responsible for planning the October 7 attack. Haniyeh had been living in exile in Qatar since leaving Gaza in 2019. Although Israel has targeted Hamas figures in Lebanon and Syria, striking Haniyeh in Iran presents far greater sensitivity. Israel is suspected of conducting a long-term assassination campaign against Iranian nuclear scientists, including the 2020 killing of top Iranian military nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
During his final hours in Iran, Haniyeh was seen attending the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian, appearing cheerful and engaging with leaders from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah. Iranian media captured images of him and Pezeshkian embracing. Haniyeh had also met with Khamenei before the strike that ultimately took his life. Iranian officials reported that one of his bodyguards was killed in the attack, which Hamas later confirmed was executed using a missile.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has warned of a “harsh and painful response” from Iran and its regional allies. An influential Iranian parliamentary committee on national security and foreign policy planned an emergency meeting to address the strike.
Hamas’ military wing stated that Haniyeh’s assassination “takes the battle to new dimensions and will have major repercussions on the entire region.”
Netanyahu has declared that Israel will persist with its severe campaign in Gaza until Hamas is defeated, asserting that “everything” achieved in recent months was due to resisting domestic and international pressure to end the war. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, Israel’s bombardments and offensives have resulted in over 39,300 Palestinian deaths and more than 90,900 injuries, without distinguishing between civilians and combatants.
Despite the ongoing bombardment, Hamas continues to operate and fire rockets into Israel, although it remains uncertain whether it can intensify its attacks in response to Haniyeh’s death. Iran might also escalate its support for attacks through its network of allies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Hezbollah’s continued exchanges of fire with Israel across the Israeli-Lebanese border reflect ongoing support for Hamas and a simmering conflict that threatens to spiral into full-scale war.
