As Election Day nears, with just one week left, the swing states are displaying a notable shift according to recent polls and betting odds. Pennsylvania has narrowly tipped back in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, but the overall trend in other swing states tells a different story.
In the past two months, national polls have consistently indicated a lead for Harris, though this advantage has gradually decreased as Trump has made significant gains. Presently, he leads in five of the seven pivotal swing states that are expected to be crucial in deciding the outcome of the race.
While many states have historically leaned blue or red—like the 38 states that repeatedly voted for the same party between 2000 and 2016—certain states fluctuate from election to election. The battleground states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are currently in a tight race, making it difficult to predict an outcome.
Pennsylvania plays a critical role in securing victory for either candidate, as both Trump and Harris are vying for the state’s 19 Electoral College votes on Election Night.
Here is the latest snapshot of the polls and betting odds as we approach Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Current Polling Leaders in Swing States
According to the ABC News project 538, Harris currently leads the national polls by a margin of 1.4%, with Harris at 48.1% compared to Trump’s 46.6%. However, in Pennsylvania, Trump holds a slight lead of 0.3%. The state of Arizona shows Trump ahead by 1.9%, while Georgia also has Trump leading by 1.6%. In Michigan, Harris leads by 0.5%. Trump has a narrow advantage of 0.2% in Nevada, while in North Carolina, Trump is ahead by 1.3%. Wisconsin is currently a tie, indicating that Harris’s lead has diminished since last week’s results.
The website 270towin presents a slightly different perspective, showing Harris leading the national polls by 0.9% over Trump. In Pennsylvania, Harris has managed to regain a slight lead over Trump by 0.3%. Arizona indicates Trump leading by 1.7%, and in Georgia, he has a lead of 0.9%. Michigan shows Harris ahead by 1.5%. Nevada shows Trump ahead by 0.3%, North Carolina has Trump leading by 1.1%, and Wisconsin shows Harris with a 0.4% advantage. It appears that Trump has gained ground since the previous week’s polls.
Real Clear Politics shows that national betting odds have slightly shifted in favor of Trump, who has a marginal advantage of 0.1% over Harris. In Pennsylvania, the odds favor Trump by 0.4%. Arizona has Trump ahead by 1.5%, while Georgia shows a 2.3% lead for Trump. Michigan indicates Trump is ahead by 0.2%, Nevada shows a 0.7% advantage for Trump, and North Carolina has him leading by 0.8%. In Wisconsin, Trump is favored by 0.3%. This trend reflects Trump maintaining a slight lead in all swing states as well as in national odds compared to last week’s polling results.
Betting Odds Indicate Trump’s Growing Popularity
Polymarket, a cryptocurrency trading platform, reveals strong betting public sentiment favoring Trump in the national race, with a significant 66.1% support compared to Harris’s 33.8%. In Pennsylvania, Trump is favored at 62%, with Harris trailing at 38%. Arizona shows Trump favored at 75% over Harris’s 26%. Georgia mirrors this trend, with Trump at 75% compared to Harris at 27%. In Michigan, Trump leads with 56% to Harris’s 46%. Nevada shows Trump favored at 68% over Harris’s 33%. North Carolina indicates Trump is favored at 73% over Harris’s 27%. Lastly, in Wisconsin, Trump is favored at 60%, with Harris at 42%. Across all states, the betting odds reflect a growing preference for Trump compared to the previous week’s polling data.
Assessing the Reliability of Election Odds and Polls
Historically, the betting favorite has lost only twice since 1866, according to The Conversation, a nonprofit news organization dedicated to providing analysis and commentary. However, assessing polling accuracy presents a more complicated picture, as different pollsters may target varied audiences, which can introduce higher margins for error.
Confidence in public opinion polling has waned following significant errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020. Research conducted by Pew indicates that many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump during both elections.
The fluctuating dynamics in the swing states as Election Day approaches indicate a highly competitive race, and the changing odds reflect a landscape that could still shift significantly in the final days leading up to November 5. With Trump gaining traction in key battlegrounds, the outcome remains uncertain, and both candidates will need to focus their efforts strategically to secure victory in this crucial election.