The Conservative Party had long been likened to the dominant force of Manchester City in politics, a winning machine so entrenched that its key figures could scarcely recall anything else. However, their streak, which had ushered in Tory prime ministers through four consecutive elections, has now abruptly ended. The aftermath has left many Tories, whether victorious or defeated, almost speechless and grappling to come to terms with the outcome. As one insider put it, they were simply “not coherent.”
A critical analysis of their strategies and leadership missteps, and the path forward, has commenced in earnest. In conversations with Conservative figures, recurring themes emerge. While some believe Labour’s policies weren’t markedly different from their own, they acknowledge that voter perception of “competence” became decisive. The party has witnessed a rapid turnover of five leaders, and thus prime ministers, in under a decade. The seismic impact of events like Brexit, Covid-19, and multiple leadership contests has fractured the party into ideological factions. Internal conflicts often took precedence over confronting external challenges, resulting in unresolved divisions.
The Conservative Party weathered scandals in quick succession, ranging from lockdown breaches to allegations of misconduct, compounded by fiscal decisions that led to interest rate hikes. An election betting controversy added to their woes. When asked during the campaign about the party’s conduct issues, former Chief Whip Sir Mark Spencer pointed out that other parties also faced suspensions for misconduct, though he conceded that these incidents had become too frequent.
The call for change resonated strongly in Labour’s campaign, drawing attention to concerns over the cost of living, NHS wait times, and immigration policies. Nigel Farage’s resurgence injected new dynamics into the election, exacerbating tensions among right-leaning voters who defected to Reform UK. Attempts to court these voters strained relations with centrist Tories who subsequently shifted allegiance to Labour or the Liberal Democrats, leaving the Conservatives caught in the middle.
Despite these challenges, was defeat inevitable? Most Tories I’ve spoken to describe the outcome as “not unexpected,” although some feel the extent of the loss could have been mitigated. Avoidable missteps, such as Rishi Sunak’s early departure from D-day commemorations, added to the setbacks. While Boris Johnson’s charisma continued to rally support, some supporters felt Sunak lacked a similar appeal. Questions lingered over the timing of the election called by Sunak in July, against advice for a later date to allow policies to yield tangible results.
Isaac Levido, their campaign strategist, argued unsuccessfully for delaying the election, anticipating concrete outcomes like asylum seeker returns or interest rate cuts to bolster their case. Critics of his strategy warned of potential future setbacks, such as increased Channel crossings or prison overcrowding issues. The focus now shifts to the party’s identity and policy direction as they embark on a soul-searching journey.
Looking ahead, Rishi Sunak has confirmed his intention to step down once a succession plan is in place. Discussions about appointing an interim leader to avoid awkward parliamentary scenarios are underway. Names like Sir Oliver Dowden, James Cleverly, or Jeremy Hunt have been floated, with speculation about their willingness to assume the leadership permanently.
Behind the scenes, MPs are maneuvering to consolidate support, including figures like Kemi Badenoch and Tom Tugendhat, who represent different wings of the party. Former contenders Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick are also expected to enter the fray, each critiquing the government’s stance on immigration during their tenure in the Home Office.
The composition of the remaining Tory MPs will influence the leadership contest, reflecting divisions within the party. Supporters of Sunak and Liz Truss dominate the new intake, while figures like Braverman and Badenoch have seen a decline in backing from their traditional supporters on the right. This demographic shift will play a pivotal role in shaping the party’s future trajectory.
The Tories face a critical juncture in determining their ideological direction. Will they pivot towards a more right-wing agenda to counter Reform UK’s influence, or attempt to reclaim centrist ground with candidates like Tugendhat or Hunt? These deliberations will shape the party’s evolution in the weeks and months ahead, marked by intense internal debate and reflection.
