Biden Administration Analyzes Rapid Developments in Syria as Assad’s Regime Teeters on the Brink

Officials in the Biden administration are closely monitoring the swift advances of Syrian rebels, who are now threatening the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Five US officials told CNN that Assad’s government could potentially collapse within days. The unexpected speed of the rebel offensive has led some analysts to believe that the Syrian leader’s 14-year grip on power may soon come to an end.

While the possibility of Assad’s downfall has garnered attention, officials emphasized that there is no formal consensus on the matter. “The emerging consensus is that this is an increasingly plausible scenario,” a senior US official stated. Another added, “Probably by next weekend the Assad regime will have lost any semblance of power.” However, they noted that only a well-executed coup within Assad’s circle could delay the rebels’ progress. “Assad’s folks have done a good job of stifling any potential competitors,” the official observed.

One source with knowledge of US intelligence highlighted that the rebels have been successful primarily because government forces have avoided prolonged engagements. The areas where rebels have made the most headway—Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama—are not strongholds of regime support, allowing for limited resistance. “The question is whether regime forces actually stand their ground when it comes to Damascus,” the source added.

The rebels’ momentum has brought them to the outskirts of Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, as they move south toward Damascus. The capital is now within their sights after the rapid capture of major cities over the past week.

Caught off guard by the pace of these developments, the Biden administration is reassessing its approach to Syria. The collapse of Assad’s forces has left only a weakened army to defend the president and the capital. This miscalculation echoes past errors in US intelligence, such as the overestimation of the Afghan government’s resilience and the underestimation of Ukraine’s ability to withstand a Russian invasion. Following these misjudgments, the intelligence community launched a review of how it evaluates the “will to fight” of foreign militaries.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, addressing the situation, stated that the US would not directly intervene in the Syrian civil war but would work to prevent a resurgence of ISIS. Speaking at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Sullivan said, “What we are going to do is focus on the American national security priorities and interests.”

Syria’s civil war, which began in 2011 during the Arab Spring, has claimed over 300,000 civilian lives and displaced millions. The current rebel offensive, led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), marks the most significant escalation in years. HTS, which the US designates as a terrorist organization, was previously affiliated with al Qaeda. Sullivan expressed concerns about the group’s goals, stating, “We have real concerns about the designs and objectives of that organization.” However, he also remarked, “At the same time, of course, we don’t cry over the fact that the Assad government, backed by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, are facing certain kinds of pressure.”

Despite their critical role in supporting Assad, neither Iran nor Russia seems poised to intervene decisively. Russia remains preoccupied with its ongoing conflict in Ukraine, while Iran’s regional influence has been diminished by Israeli strikes on its air defenses and allied groups. According to one US official, HTS capitalized on the distraction of Assad’s allies and the world’s inattention to Syria.

The Pentagon, which has approximately 900 troops stationed in Syria, has not announced any changes to its operations. Officials are adopting a cautious approach, implementing additional force protection measures while monitoring the situation. The US continues to work with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on anti-ISIS missions, although the SDF maintains contact with HTS. The US itself avoids communication with HTS due to its terrorist designation.

Turkey’s role in the rebel advance remains ambiguous. US officials believe Ankara may have tacitly approved HTS’s offensive but has not offered explicit support. The safety of Assad’s chemical weapons stockpile, including chlorine and sarin, has become a pressing concern for the Biden administration. Assad has used these weapons in the past, provoking international outrage.

Speculation about Assad’s potential escape plan is rife. Moscow or Tehran could offer him refuge, but it remains unclear whether the rebels will target Latakia, a stronghold of the Alawite sect to which Assad belongs.

The potential fall of Assad’s regime also comes at a politically sensitive time in the United States. As President Joe Biden prepares to transfer power to President-elect Donald Trump, the incoming leader has already voiced his opposition to US involvement in Syria. “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend,” Trump wrote on social media, urging the US to adopt a hands-off approach and concluding, “LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”

During his first term, Trump responded to Assad’s chemical attacks with airstrikes but later sought to withdraw US forces from northern Syria, leaving a residual presence for anti-ISIS operations. Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of Trump, has emphasized the importance of ensuring the security of ISIS prisoners in northeast Syria. “If there is a further collapse of the Syrian government, I fear that US forces could be put in jeopardy. It is therefore imperative that we have contingency plans to reinforce our troops to make sure the anti-ISIS mission does not collapse,” Graham warned on social media.

As the situation unfolds, the Biden administration faces complex challenges. While the prospect of Assad’s fall could signal an end to years of brutal conflict, the uncertainty surrounding Syria’s future raises questions about regional stability and the safety of vulnerable populations.