Recent United States military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities did not achieve their goal of fully dismantling the country’s nuclear program, according to a preliminary intelligence evaluation. The report, described by seven individuals familiar with its findings, indicates that while damage was done, the effect of the strikes is estimated to have delayed Iran’s progress by only a few months.
The evaluation was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which serves as the Pentagon’s intelligence branch. It relied on battle damage assessments carried out by US Central Command following the strikes. According to one source, the analysis remains ongoing and may evolve as more intelligence is gathered. However, the early conclusions contradict assertions made by President Donald Trump and his administration regarding the effectiveness of the attacks.
President Trump has claimed that the strikes “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment infrastructure. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth echoed this sentiment, saying, “Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been obliterated.” Yet, two individuals briefed on the assessment stated that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed. One of them added that the centrifuges “are largely intact.” Another source mentioned that the enriched uranium may have been removed from the targeted sites before the strikes occurred.
“So the (DIA) assessment is that the US set them back maybe a few months, tops,” said one of the sources.
Despite acknowledging the existence of the assessment, the White House firmly disagreed with its conclusions. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement to CNN, “This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong and was classified as ‘top secret’ but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community. The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program. Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”
While attending the NATO summit in the Netherlands, Trump dismissed CNN’s report in a Truth Social post, calling the operation “one of the most successful military strikes in history,” and claiming, “The nuclear sites in Iran are completely destroyed!”
Hegseth, also at the summit, clarified on Wednesday that the assessment was “a top secret report; it was preliminary; it was low confidence.” He suggested that the leak was politically motivated and said the FBI was investigating to identify the source of the leak.
The Pentagon continues to describe the strikes as an “overwhelming success.” Nonetheless, sources familiar with the matter emphasized that it is still early for a definitive analysis of the strikes’ effects. Intelligence gathering is ongoing, including within Iran itself.
Leading up to the US action, Israel had already been targeting Iranian nuclear sites. However, Israeli officials indicated they required US-deployed bunker buster bombs to complete the mission. American B-2 bombers dropped over a dozen such bombs on the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant and the Natanz Enrichment Complex. Yet, the bombs did not entirely destroy the centrifuges or the enriched uranium, according to the sources. The DIA concluded that damage was largely limited to aboveground facilities, including power infrastructure and buildings used in uranium metal conversion for potential weapons.
The Israeli evaluation also indicated that Fordow suffered less damage than initially anticipated. However, Israeli officials believe the combined strikes from both nations delayed Iran’s nuclear program by two years. They note that this delay assumes Iran can rebuild without interference—something Israel vows to prevent. It’s important to note that Israeli officials had already estimated a two-year delay before the US operation took place.
Hegseth reaffirmed the administration’s stance in a statement to CNN, saying, “Based on everything we have seen — and I’ve seen it all — our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons. Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target and worked perfectly. The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran; so anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the President and the successful mission.”
On Tuesday, Trump reiterated his confidence in the strikes, stating, “I think it’s been completely demolished,” and “Those pilots hit their targets. Those targets were obliterated, and the pilots should be given credit.”
When asked about the potential for Iran to rebuild, Trump responded, “That place is under rock. That place is demolished.”
Despite these confident assertions, Trump acknowledged that current intelligence is “inconclusive” and said more information is expected from Israel. Speaking from the sidelines of the NATO summit in The Hague, he admitted, “The intelligence was very inconclusive. The intelligence says we don’t know. It could have been very severe.”
While the administration projects confidence, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine adopted a more cautious tone. He stated on Sunday that, given the ongoing nature of the damage assessment, it was “way too early” to determine whether Iran’s nuclear capabilities had been fully neutralized.
Republican Representative Michael McCaul, former chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, also struck a measured note. When asked by CNN, he declined to support Trump’s statement that Iran’s nuclear program had been “obliterated.” He explained, “I’ve been briefed on this plan in the past, and it was never meant to completely destroy the nuclear facilities, but rather cause significant damage. But it was always known to be a temporary setback.”
Weapons expert Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, reviewed commercial satellite images of the strike zones. He concurred that Iran’s nuclear program had not been eradicated. “The ceasefire came without either Israel or the United States being able to destroy several key underground nuclear facilities, including near Natanz, Isfahan and Parchin,” Lewis said. He noted that Parchin, a nuclear complex near Tehran, remains capable of helping Iran quickly reestablish its program. “These facilities could serve as the basis for the rapid reconstitution of Iran’s nuclear program.”
Classified briefings scheduled for both the Senate and the House were postponed on Tuesday. Sources said the all-Senate briefing was rescheduled for Thursday, while the House briefing also faced delays, with no immediate explanation or revised date provided.
Representative Pat Ryan, a Democrat from New York, commented on X that “Trump just cancelled a classified House briefing on the Iran strikes with zero explanation. The real reason? He claims he destroyed ‘all nuclear facilities and capability;’ his team knows they can’t back up his bluster and BS.”
The capability of the US’ Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs to effectively destroy Iran’s deeply buried nuclear sites has long been in question, particularly concerning the Fordow and Isfahan facilities. In fact, the US used Tomahawk missiles from a submarine against Isfahan, rather than deploying bunker buster bombs. One source explained this choice by noting that Isfahan’s lower levels are even deeper underground than Fordow’s and likely beyond the bomb’s reach.
Further complicating the picture, US officials believe Iran may possess undisclosed nuclear facilities that were not targeted and remain fully operational, according to two sources familiar with the intelligence.