With Election Day just around the corner, Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a slight national lead over former President Donald Trump, as indicated by the latest YouGov presidential model released on Friday. According to YouGov’s final assessment, Harris is outpacing Trump by a narrow 3-point margin, capturing 50 percent of voter support compared to Trump’s 47 percent.
The election projection grants Harris a lead with 240 electoral votes, leaving her Republican opponent close behind at 218 votes, while 80 electoral votes are still considered toss-ups. This latest model shows a slight shift from the October 16 analysis, which projected Harris with 250 electoral votes to Trump’s 219, with only 69 electoral votes classified as uncertain.
In highlighting the states that are expected to be pivotal in the outcome, YouGov identified Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia as the primary battlegrounds, notably excluding Michigan from this list.
In Nevada, Harris narrowly leads with 50 percent of support, while Trump follows closely at 48 percent. However, Arizona presents a reverse scenario, with Trump leading Harris by an identical 3-point margin.
North Carolina and Pennsylvania are showing an even tighter race, with Harris maintaining a slight edge of 49 percent to Trump’s 48 percent in each state. Wisconsin also reflects a slim lead for Harris, with the vice president polling at 49 percent compared to Trump’s 47 percent.
The polling in Georgia tips slightly in Trump’s favor, with the former president leading by a single point, polling at 49 percent to Harris’s 48 percent.
Further corroborating this close race, The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling index puts Harris marginally ahead on a national level, capturing 48.3 percent of support compared to Trump’s 48 percent.
The national poll, conducted between October 25 and October 31, included responses from 57,784 registered voters and has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
