Two prominent betting companies, Betfair and Star Sports, are now offering odds on the Democrats sweeping the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives in the upcoming November 5 elections. Betfair’s odds for the Democrats to capture all three branches are 6/1, giving them a 14.5 percent chance, while Star Sports rates a Democratic sweep at 7/1, or 12.5 percent. The stakes are particularly high as the 2024 presidential race remains exceptionally close, with polls suggesting a narrow lead for Republican candidate Donald Trump over Democrat Kamala Harris.
Polling website 538 recently released an analysis of the race, revealing Trump has a slight advantage, with 48 percent support versus 46.7 percent for Harris. Due to the Electoral College system, though, winning the popular vote doesn’t guarantee an overall victory, and 538 currently assigns Trump a 52 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 48 percent.
If the Democrats succeed not only in retaining the White House but also in capturing both chambers of Congress, it would substantially strengthen Harris’s legislative capabilities, allowing for smoother passage of her policy proposals. Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom explained, “Even if the Democrats manage to eke out a win against Donald Trump, their legislative agenda could be hampered if they are unsuccessful in the Senate and the House of Representatives.” He highlighted the importance of both chambers, especially as Democrats have been keen on reclaiming ground in the House after losing their majority there in 2022. “We’ve crunched the numbers and give the Democrats 6/1 odds of winning the presidency as well as both chambers in Congress. This gives them only a 14 percent chance of doing so, compared to the 45 percent chance that the Republicans have of winning all three,” he added.
The situation in Congress is particularly tense. Currently, the Democrats hold a fragile majority in the Senate, with 51 seats compared to 49 held by Republicans. The GOP, which has been eager to regain control of the upper chamber after falling short in the November 2022 elections, sees significant opportunities this election cycle. William Kedjanyi, a political betting analyst with Star Sports, suggested that Republicans could secure control over both chambers and maintain their influence in the House. “Republicans could have more to celebrate next week, with the prospect of seizing control of the Senate, as well as maintaining their majority in the House of Representatives. We price a GOP clean sweep at 6/4, with the Democrats an unlikely 7/1 to complete a federal government trifecta,” he noted.
One critical Senate race involves the West Virginia seat held by Joe Manchin, an independent who initially ran as a Democrat. This seat is widely seen as a likely win for Republicans. However, there is also a high-profile race in Texas, where Democratic Representative Colin Allred is challenging Republican Senator Ted Cruz. Polls indicate Cruz holds a modest lead, varying from 1 to 7 points, but this seat remains on the Democratic radar as a potential pick-up.
In November 2022, the Democratic Party lost control of the House of Representatives, leading to a change in leadership from Nancy Pelosi to Republican Kevin McCarthy, and later to Mike Johnson. A recent study by *The Economist*, dated October 31, estimates that Democrats have a 54 percent chance of retaking the House in the upcoming election, while Republicans hold a 46 percent probability of retaining their majority.
To gain further insight, Newsweek attempted to reach out to the Harris campaign and the Democratic Party, though no responses were received by the time of publication.
As the election approaches, these odds reflect the high stakes for both parties and the uncertainty that continues to characterize the 2024 race.
