Eric Schmidt, renowned for leading Google through its transformative growth, shared his views on the escalating rivalry between the United States and China in artificial intelligence (AI). In an interview with The Washington Post, Schmidt described the ongoing competition as an “epic fight,” highlighting that both nations possess the talent, resources, and determination required to dominate the AI landscape. The stakes are immense, with advancements promising scientific breakthroughs, economic gains, and strategic military advantages.
“I’ll say this very directly—this is a race between the U.S. and China,” Schmidt stated. “Both countries have a willingness, a goal, a national policy. They have the capital, they have the energy, and they have the people at scale that almost no other country has. That fight is the epic fight.” Schmidt, who co-authored the book Genesis exploring AI’s transformative potential, emphasized the critical implications of this rivalry.
China’s Growing Momentum
Schmidt expressed surprise at China’s rapid advancements in AI technology. “As you know, in the US, we’ve been trying to slow China down a bit. It’s been somewhat successful but not hugely successful. And China is doubling down. They’ve recently brought out models that are analogous or similar to the best models in America, which shocked me,” he remarked. He noted that China’s achievements in developing AI models parallel to America’s cutting-edge systems demonstrate their increasing capabilities.
The competition’s significance lies in the potential convergence of human and AI capabilities. “The competition is important, because when you get closer to general intelligence, you can build your own AI scientists. And if you add more—you have human scientists and AI scientists—you can supercharge and get there so much faster,” Schmidt said.
US Leadership in AI Innovation
Despite China’s progress, Schmidt reaffirmed the United States’ leadership in AI. American companies like OpenAI and Google remain at the forefront, driving innovations that set global benchmarks, particularly in generative AI. “We, America, actually invent this technology. We have all these AI scientists, which are just computer programs. We unleash them. We were doing pretty well,” Schmidt observed.
To maintain its edge, the US has strategically restricted China’s access to advanced hardware, including Nvidia’s A100 chips, crucial for high-level AI computations. This policy has posed significant challenges for China but has not entirely stalled its progress. “The problem that they’ve had has been lack of hardware,” Schmidt explained. “We have restricted the access to what are technically known as A100-level chips. This is the previous generation, or two generations of Nvidia chips. But it sure looks to us that China has found ways around those sanctions, which is not a surprise, and they’ve also learned how to do things with fewer chips, which is to their credit, and shows you how good engineers they really are.”
Most of these chips are manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC, using proprietary technology controlled by ASML in Europe. Schmidt acknowledged the strategic importance of these policies: “The government has made it very difficult for that technology to get to China, which was a good decision.”
China’s Strategic Advantages
While the US continues to lead, Schmidt cautioned against underestimating China’s potential. He highlighted the advantages China derives from its centralized control and willingness to adopt AI technologies at scale. “China has a lot of energy, and they seem to be willing to—they don’t seem to have any particular rules about data—human data, medical data, and so forth,” he noted.
China’s central planning allows for rapid deployment of resources and technology without strict regulations. “They’re more focused on winning. They’re more centrally controlled, and this is a case where central control can help. They’re willing to spend an enormous amount of money without a particular goal,” Schmidt observed. He also pointed out China’s tradition of swift corporate adoption of new technologies, enabling them to outpace other nations in applying AI to real-world scenarios.
“I think there’s every reason to believe that even if we win the first part of the race, China will eventually win the race, because they adopt this sort of technology more quickly in volume products,” Schmidt warned.
Supply Chain Challenges for the US
Schmidt acknowledged that the United States faces vulnerabilities in its supply chain despite its technological advantages. While the US excels in designing semiconductors, it depends heavily on a global manufacturing network, particularly for components made in China. “China makes essentially all of the pieces that are necessary to make semiconductors. I’m not talking about the chips. I’m talking about the glue and the carriers and so forth,” Schmidt explained.
He stressed the importance of building independent supply chains, especially in the event of heightened tensions between the US and China. “If a conflict with China is likely, it would be essential to establish separate supply chains,” Schmidt advised.
A Global Race with Far-Reaching Implications
The US-China AI race extends beyond technological innovation, influencing economic, military, and geopolitical dynamics. Schmidt underscored that achieving general AI capabilities—where machines can perform tasks rivaling human intelligence—would revolutionize scientific research and development. Both nations are investing heavily in this vision, aiming to secure their positions as global leaders.
While the US has made strides in limiting China’s access to critical resources, Schmidt’s insights reveal that China’s resilience and adaptability keep them a formidable competitor. The outcome of this “epic fight” will shape the future of AI and its role in defining global power structures. As Schmidt succinctly put it, “This is the race of our time.”
